Guest Post by Doug Casey via International Man
The Chinese came from nothing; only 40 years ago, they had nothing but a billion impoverished peasants. No money. No technology. No power. Today, they’re on par with the United States. But, if this trend continues – which it will – their economy will be triple the size of the US economy in 20 years.
Not just a trade war, but a shooting war with the Chinese seems inevitable. Because when tensions build up between states they eventually fight with each other. China is the major rising power. It’s got four times the US population, it’s soon going to be more economically powerful, and it’s going to reach military parity.
It’s of a different culture than the US. The US government may figure it’s best to take them out while the balance still favors them. It’s a bit like the situation was with the USSR in the ’80s. They could see they were going into decline, and some Soviet generals figured it was “now or never” for a successful war. Fortunately they collapsed first.
The Chinese don’t like seeing US aircraft carriers off their coast any more than we would like to see Chinese aircraft carriers in the Gulf of Mexico or off Santa Catalina Island.
The last thing that we need is a war with the Chinese. But if something that’s been called the Thucydides Trap is valid – and I think it is – then it’s highly likely. It refers to the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta, at the end of 5th century BC. The Trap is sprung when a reigning power strikes out at the advancing power while they still have a chance of winning.
The American military thinks that a shooting war is inevitable. And it probably is. Why? Well, 5,000 years of history teaches us that it’s better to start a war when you’re more powerful than your enemy rather than wait until they’re more powerful than you. It’s always been this way. The Golden Rule of statecraft is: Do unto others – but do it first. It’s a very dangerous situation.
The US may do something stupid, like fabricate an incident, and launch a preemptive strike against China. Or perhaps things just get out of control, as they did in World War I.
It would make about as much sense as the Peloponnesian War, or World War I. But these things can take on a life of their own.
The wars between European powers were bad enough. But when the US fought Japan it actually turned into a race war. What happened in the Pacific was far uglier than what happened in Europe. There were basically no prisoners taken.
The next big war – as opposed to a sport war, like those in the Middle East – is likely to be with China. That could make World War II look trivial by comparison.
The Next Financial Crisis Will Be “The Big One”
Nobody has a crystal ball, but I think you can see the dominos lining up. Will this be the big one, or will it just be another recession – an inconvenience, followed by even bigger bubbles? It’s a question of odds. And the more dominos that lineup – the political, economic, social, demographic, military, and cultural dominos – the more logical that this next one is going to be much bigger than what happened in 2008.
That’s why I use the analogy of 2007-2010 being the leading edge of this hurricane. We’ve had a very big eye of the storm because of absolutely massive money printing by central banks all over the world. It’s had the effect of throwing oil on the water.
When we go into the trailing edge of this hurricane, it’s going to be much worse, much different, and much longer lasting than the unpleasantness of 2007-2010. Why? Because that was caused by inflation and debt. We’ve had vastly more of that over the last decade to paper over the problems. I think we’re re-entering the hurricane now.
But there’s always some good news. Here the good news is that most of the real wealth in the world – skills, technologies, buildings, things of that nature – won’t disappear just because the economy collapses. Most of the real wealth will still be here. It’s just going to change ownership.
I look forward to moments of crisis – assuming that the system itself is maintained in more or less its present form. In other words, it’s possible to look forward to a financial crisis, if you can position yourself to weather it. Financial crises come and go. It’s possible to position yourself to profit from a financial crisis.
I’m not, however, looking forward to an economic crisis, or a political crisis. Those can have major consequences. And I’m absolutely not looking forward to a cultural crisis, which is by far the most serious kind. Unfortunately, that is what we’re facing at this point.
Let’s just hope that what’s coming this time, over the next few years, is limited to a financial crisis. But I don’t expect that’s the case. I think it’s going to be economic, political, and cultural as well.
Editor’s Note: If the trade war between China and the US turns into a shooting war, a complete economic collapse is sure to follow. That’s why we’re sharing our field guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse. Click here to download your free PDF copy now.
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Ask a Korea War veteran what is was like fighting the Chinese.
Fascinating how (((chosenites))) have played the slow game and fooled so many over time. Like the frog in the gradually boiling pot of water we Americans are. Is it “cohencidence” we went off the gold standard in 1971 and then we were fundamental in opening China’s doors shortly after? our hidden hand master’s, the bankers and the above, are executing their long game plan for the coming one world government. Reference Albert pike and the three world wars . Is it conspiracy theory or what is being played out before your eyes? Be Prepared accordingly.
My dad was afraid of going to Korea, His sergeant kept telling him shit like, The Chinese could just keep coming, marching in formations like lemmings because there were so many of them. So many young horny men with no wives because of policies that went on for years, they all are sitting around with woodys and nothing to do. I think I read that here a long while back.
The USA is overextended financially with over 800 military bases dotted throughout the world and debt & deficit that can never be retired. Bottom line is that the USA cannot afford to engage in preemptive war of any kind due to the fact that far too many forces throughout the world will align to counteract & countermand any sort of Hobbessian brutishness on the part of USA tyranny going forward.
China cannot be stopped from overtaking the USA incompetence to govern as world hegemon. The Russian Federation & China have already aligned politically & financially to undermine the totalitarianism that USA has inflicted on their market share. These sovereigns also know implicitly that the USA is not an honest arbiter of the rule of law or in terms of macroeconomics & business.
When the trust is absent from business dealings war is sure to follow but in this case the USA knows they are outflanked, outgunned, & outsmarted by 10:1 which renders their options few.
No false flag events carried out by the CIA will be believed this time round given the failed false flag of 911.
America is screwed.
Have a cigarette.
MOU
POLL QUESTION: —> Casey is a moran.
Up = Yes
Down = No
POLL QUESTION:–> Casey masturbates more than Stucky
Up= Yes
Down=No
As anyone who despises out-of-control bullies would do, I whole-heartedly look forward to witnessing the U.S. military get a healthy heaping helpin’ of their own goddamn medicine.
GO CHINA!
If you are an American you need to think about the consequences of losing a war. If not think how you will get along in the new world order.
I am and I have. My plan is to liquidate all my assets sometime withing the next 7 years and move abroad with my family, most probably to a Spanish speaking country (I’m thinking Spain) as I speak the language fluently. I’m banking on the increasingly probable prediction that the “New World Order” will not be dictated nor run by the United States government but rather by Russia and/or China …both of which have proven to be less homicidal & maniacal than the U.S. government.
If instead I die in a nuclear holocaust (obviously provoked by U.S. actions) I’ll go HAPPY in the knowledge that 340 million insouciant American’ts will be coming along for the ride with me.
Nature will rebuild. It always does.
We had better hurry. The USA will be broke soon. Even the financing a war with Grenada will be impossible after another 5 trillion in national debt.