Panic in Real Estate

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

There is a massive exodus from California and New York in particular. Even in North New Jersey, houses are selling in just days and over asking prices for cash. People are bailing out of New York City in herds. Here in Florida, condos are selling as fast as they can get them up in St Petersbourg. These lockdowns and COVID restrictions that are insane in the major cities have set in motion a massive exodus that these authoritarians never anticipated. As they flex their muscles to try to make this so draconian over nothing, they are completing the cycle which has been pointing to the collapse of urbanization, and the rich will flee.

One of my favorite stories of the Sovereign Debt Crisis is the City of Mainz, in Germany, around 1440. The goldsmith Johannes Gutenberg invented the printing press,. He began the Printing Revolution that enabled the Renaissance to flourish. His printing press could produce up to 3,600 pages per workday compared to the hand-copying by scribes which would produce only about 40 pages per day.

The printing press then spread within several decades to over two hundred cities in a dozen European countries. Mainz exploded economically and quickly the politicians were licking their lips with visions of new tax revenue without end. They began borrowing against future tax revenue since they learned how to spend the money faster than it could be collected.

As the politicians of Mainz kept raising taxes because they could not pay their debts, they began to issue new debt to repay the old as we do today. Suddenly, they drove people out because of their taxation as we are witnessing once more. Then the politicians could not sell new debt to pay for the old and that is when then defaulted. The Pope excommunicated the politicians for their abuse of Usury and then the creditors simply invaded, sacked the city, burned it to the ground. No doubt, this is the fate we will face because politicians are driving their car at top speed without a seat-belt and they never checked the tires.

There is a major flight from the cities and we are witnessing the collapse in real estate in urban centers and suburbia prices are rising as people are paying cash and even over asking prices.

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8 Comments
ottomatik
ottomatik
August 22, 2020 10:25 am

If the rich are bailing out.
Who the fuck is buying all these homes over asking price?

Articles of Confederation
Articles of Confederation
  ottomatik
August 22, 2020 10:45 am

One of the top 2 or 3 destinations for Californians is Nashville. It’s the top destination for SoCal expats (entertainment). That’s who’s buying them in Middle Tennessee. They’re bidding over ask, sight unseen, on rural, turnkey farmsteads. It makes sense when you think about it. When a derelict Compton rambler goes for 500k, it’s not hard to drop 700k for 5-10 acres and a mule.

I’d worry about it in a Third Turning, but in a Fourth Turning they’ll be marked as “future problems” if they bring their shitty politicking outside Davidson County.

What happened in Virginia was a Third Turning exodus to massive government growth and employment. It’ll be a LOT tougher to clean it up. I don’t see its plausibility without a culling.

splurge
splurge
  ottomatik
August 22, 2020 10:45 am

The FED via Blackrock.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr
  ottomatik
August 22, 2020 1:17 pm

Come on, you are smarter than that; the rich are leaving the Urban Jungles before the Dindos loot and burn them; people are leaving the Big Blue shitholes which will be Gone With The Wind pretty soon, for the relatively safety of anywhere else. Who is buying the condos they are leaving: nobody.

Henry Ford
Henry Ford
August 22, 2020 10:40 am

Why would anybody move to north New Jersey? Do they think that is better than New York City? Maybe the governor is giving them a break on real estate taxes. Bring back “New Jersey and you, perfect together”.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr
  Henry Ford
August 22, 2020 1:19 pm

Not this you says a Southern Rebel Flag lover.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr
August 22, 2020 1:08 pm

God help us! This is a first sign of intelligence coming from liberal useful idiot Urban Yankees!

Trapped in Portlandia
Trapped in Portlandia
August 22, 2020 1:39 pm

When I grew up in Chicago, the south and west sides were places white folk would never venture. Many POC in those neighborhoods tended to be rather violent. If you had to get across those no-go zones you took the expressway through them or tollway around them.

Now in Portland I am seeing the same phenomena. Most of the city from downtown through the east side of the city is turning into a no-go zone, especially at night. To get from one side of Portland to the other you take the freeway and don’t get off until your destination, that is assuming the young, progressive, unemployed losers are not staging a march down I-5 or I-84. (BTW, I think Waze needs a new symbol for assholes closing the freeway).

Within a couple years, or less, the blue cities are going to be no-go zones. The freeways will be the only safe corridors through the hellholes. POI (i.e., people of intelligence) will be living in the suburbs or out in the county. Everything outside the cities will carry on normally while the nutcases in the cities continue to graffiti everything, march for nothing, and try to burn stuff down with lighter fluid and dumpsters.