Ukraine is one of the world’s top exporters of corn, sunflower oil, and wheat. Disruptions stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have stoked fears the war-torn country could experience a 50% decline in crop output this year, according to Bloomberg.
Forecast data from ag expert UkrAgroConsult show Ukraine’s corn output could be as low as 19 million tons, about half of last year’s 41 million tons.
UkrAgroConsult’s pessimistic outlook follows huge production uncertainties as farmers experience shortages of diesel and fertilizer and bombed-out infrastructure.
The outlooks of two other ag firms aren’t as gloomy. Black Sea research firm SovEcon expects Ukraine’s 2022 corn harvest to be 27.7 million tons, and Barva Invest’s outlook is 29.5 million tons. Both a far below 2021 totals.
Maxigrain analyst Elena Neroba warned if farmers don’t have diesel, they “can’t plant huge hectares.”
“Some farmers still don’t have access to seeds and fertilizers. Even if they already paid for them, the delivery supply chain doesn’t work as well as it should,” Neroba said.
Regardless of how much the conflict impacts output, global food prices have never risen so fast and have never been so high in anticipation of food shortages worldwide.
In March, global food prices jumped a stunning 12.64% MoM – almost double the previous record monthly surge…
Prices have exceeded levels only seen during the inflation riots of 2010/11, known as Arab Spring.
Breaking down export numbers, Ukraine produced 49.6% of global sunflower oil, 15.3% of global maize, 12.6% of global barley, and about 10% of global wheat.
Rather than planting, some Ukrainian farmers are stealing Russian tanks and selling them to the government.
We’ve already pointed out that food inflation riots are underway and may continue to spread throughout emerging market economies.
The bad news is that the world’s hunger problem isn’t going away and may only worsen. The anticipation of Ukraine’s crops evaporating from the global food supply will exacerbate the incoming food crisis. Food supplies may plunge next year as harvests will result in lower production, which may force food prices even higher.
The world could be on the cusp of a multi-year food crisis. It’s never been a better time to start growing your own garden.
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I think 1/2 a crop is optimistic. The fuel to harvest that much wheat will be very difficult to come by in the middle of a war. If the Russians left tomorrow Ukraine would still be a basket case next year let alone in June or July this year. Biden and Hanity are backing glorious Ukraine sacrifice on the alter of NATO.
Are their grain handling ports even functioning at all? No? So, it’s not going to be 50% yields, it will be near zero – because there is no way to transport the grain.
They’re not the only ones.
Our prices for fertilizer, spray, fuel and seed are going to do essentially the same thing.
Farmers aren’t putting the same amounts in as they once did.
Budgeted $100/acre inputs, putting in $100/acre.
Planning on letting crop insurance make up the shortfall in yield.
Harvests will be lower.
Simple as.
Don’t forget that the weather gets a say in this also.
When America and Canada are having drastic increases in costs related to planting, then the only possible reason is manipulation of those costs by government. Gas prices are up because of government interference, anyone who can’t see that is blind or stupid.
Offset by millions of jab deaths….so maybe a wash….? Too many hungry types tend to pick up pitchforks and torches….just saying.
But AOC says you can always buy food at the store….
She is a credit to her people.