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21 Comments
ursel doran
ursel doran
June 15, 2022 10:32 am

Sir Admin,
Here is the elephant in the room that NOBODY from the sell side MSM is speaking about.
The unwinding of the debt that SHALL have to happen. It has every cycle.
Margin debt, fresh update with some great notes on the unwinding of the “Stock Market Mania”!!

Margin Debt Unwinds Further amid Massacre of High-Flying Stocks and Forced Selling

Anonymous
Anonymous
June 15, 2022 10:36 am

Commercial real estate yes.
Residential down maybe 20% then levels off.
People have to live somewhere and a house/property is a tangible asset.
Supply and demand still exists people. There is still a shit load of liquid funds sloshing around and name something safer to park your money in (fuck gold, the most manipulated commodity that exists today).
Maybe mostly “rich” people and and corporate entities will end up owning houses but it will not “collapse”.

TN Patriot
TN Patriot
  Anonymous
June 15, 2022 10:45 am

Professional investors have recognized housing as a strong market and have been bidding up the prices for a couple of years. It is very difficult for a first time buyer to find a house he can afford and be able to outbid Blackrock.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  TN Patriot
June 15, 2022 10:49 am

Thank you for making my point.

Harrington Richardson: Gimme Sachwerte!
Harrington Richardson: Gimme Sachwerte!
  TN Patriot
June 15, 2022 10:56 am

6.38% for 30 yr. right now. Everything is f’d up. Cash will be king. Or maybe cash will be prince or lesser official if Bidenflation keeps up. Rough times for sure. Crypto massacre will be bad since some stupid countries were trying to use it.
If anybody still thinks “the rich” are not trying to kill us or at least corral and herd us they have another thing coming. People here are far ahead of the curve on the medical crimes and I have just come across more worse shit in that arena. On a positive note, there are reports Ivermectin has been found to cure cancer in combination with other super cheap widely available veterinary meds. Dems will probably make possession a death penalty offense now. Courage. No mercy.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
  Anonymous
June 15, 2022 11:16 am

“People have to live somewhere.”

True, but they’re already living somewhere. The only nationwide drop in home values since the ‘30’s was the 2006-2011 drop. It depends what your definition of “collapse” is. A 20% drop means a lot of people wouldn’t have enough equity to borrow against – perish the thought.

TN Patriot
TN Patriot
  Iska Waran
June 15, 2022 3:27 pm

A mere 40 years ago, a house I paid $81K for was appraised at $45K. This was in OK after the oil patch cratered in early ’82.

i forget
i forget
  Anonymous
June 15, 2022 1:03 pm

Money – “money” – is the most manipulated. “Interest rates” – the price of “money” is completely manipulated. The “real estate” appendage growing out of that Frankenstein forehead is completely manipulated. Gold? What used to be the money standard? Yeah, that, too.

So far, collusion has collapsed every time.

So far, man•ipulator has wasted no time reigniting the manipulation fuse.

You know the saw that cuts it “if its free, you’re the product”?

Same goes for if its “incentivized” by “interest rates,” going into mortgage debt, & the propaganda/Madison Ave bs about “your home is your biggest investment.”

“You are the product” = sucker.

Glock-N-Load
Glock-N-Load
  Anonymous
June 15, 2022 7:17 pm

I’m a real estate photographer in the DC metro area. I’ve been doing this for the last 15 years (if you’re a photographer and you don’t offer real estate photography services, you’re missing out on lots of business) and I have a close relationship with many many Realtors. This means they are willing to tell me things I don’t believe they would necessarily tell their sellers or most likely their buyers. Anyway, over the last 1-2 months, Realtors have been saying, in unison, “the market has changed” or “the market has shifted”. BUT today, one of my long time Realtor clients told me she is selling her house 1-2 years earlier than she planned because the market is “collapsing”. These were her words. She said she is already missing out on over 100k and maybe even 200k on her $1.1 million home. My last photoshoot, JUST TODAY, the homeowners told me they are selling and going to rent until the market “corrects”. True, they could be wrong but, hey even the Realtor told me she was going to get 100k-200k less than she would have gotten 6 months ago so this means we are already at almost a 20% correction and the party hasn’t even started yet. When the crowd starts whispering, the herd makes it happen. Will there be a rush to the exits?

Anonymous
Anonymous
June 15, 2022 10:48 am

Down voter didn’t like the truth or “fuck gold”?
Please buy more gold, it tastes good and and if you have enough you can make a shelter with it.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Anonymous
June 15, 2022 12:44 pm

Because it’s manipulated? It’s artificially low, benefiting buyers. If it remains manipulated, then it’s just as good a hedge vs inflation as it ever was. If the manipulation stops, you’re in an even better spot.
Question: Are the ones doing the manipulating buying gold themselves?
Question 2: Do you think those doing the manipulating want the price artificially low forever?

Note from Nevada
Note from Nevada
June 15, 2022 11:22 am

Its starting….. a year ago in the local market, inventory in the $400-$600K range was about 10 homes at a time. Checked Zillow the other day 122 homes on the market in that price range. Views/saves etc dropping like a rock.

PorkChopSandwiches
PorkChopSandwiches
  Note from Nevada
June 15, 2022 5:36 pm

2 months ago houses in my AO were selling within 48 hours after going to market getting multiple offers with some 20-30k over asking. in the last week I’ve seen several drop asking by over 50k and one went off the market completely. Guess they decided not to sell.

B_MC
B_MC
June 15, 2022 11:28 am

Collateral damage….

“Real Estate Tech” in Existential Crisis as Housing Sours, Stocks Plunge, New Money Out of Reach: Redfin & Compass Try to Survive by Cutting Staff. Opendoor, Zillow Sag

There are hundreds of companies in this position that went public during the hype-and-hoopla era of money printing and interest rate repression, and they’re all fundamentally facing the same existential crisis, though each company has unique challenges, and in addition, all have to face their industry challenges.

Just to stay within one industry: Today two companies in “real estate tech” with collapsed hype-and-hoopla stocks announced job cuts: Compass and Redfin. Two others had massive layoffs earlier. Zillow, which is also in real estate tech, has been laying off people since last year, when it exited its home-flipping fiasco, with layoffs occurring through at least April this year. Unrepentant home flipper Opendoor went through a bunch of layoffs in 2020, but has not recently announced any new layoffs.

They all have one thing in common: They lost lots of money every year of their existence as a publicly traded company.

“Real Estate Tech” in Existential Crisis as Housing Sours, Stocks Plunge, New Money Out of Reach: Redfin & Compass Try to Survive by Cutting Staff. Opendoor, Zillow Sag

brian
brian
June 15, 2022 11:39 am

Real estate is a great investment and wealth retainer, until it isn’t. You do NOT own your land, you are a renter until you can no longer pay the taxes rent.

The properties value comes to light by its location when a SHTF or similar emergency happens. If you own city property or live in a HOA controlled community, you may be SOL if you wanted to grow your own food or raise a few birds in the back yard, IF you have a yard at all.

When the elite parasites determine to releave you of your property, they will do so thru taxation. They’ll have ‘legal’ authority to forcibly remove you from the property. Resist and the news will run the story of a right wing nazi getting killed by police while they attempted to serve notice.

At least with metals there will always be someone who will trade for it. Tough to trade a piece of real estate for some outlawed food product like a side of beef or similar. Plus metals are easily transported if you need to vacate… Buy rural land, definitely. But eventually you will not own it, thats been made clear. but you’ll be happy, so we’re told.

James
James
  brian
June 15, 2022 2:39 pm

Brian,also,invest in the “metals” to deal with the parasites trying to steal your land when it all crashes,just saying.

brian
brian
  James
June 15, 2022 3:25 pm

buy the bucket…

overthecliff
overthecliff
June 15, 2022 12:11 pm

The crisis of the 4th Turning has started. This is the beginning of the beginning. Things are going to be real bad. Most of us elders will not see the conclusion. Be armed you are going to need it.

Anonymous
Anonymous
June 15, 2022 1:17 pm

People have been using the rising equity in their homes to borrow more money. Interest rates are extremely low.

House prices are due to start falling soon. Interest rates have to go up.

The perfect storm of dropping house values and rising mortgage payments is coming.
There is going to be a huge number of people owing more than their home is worth, without the ability to pay.
I hope they enjoyed the jet skis and Disney trips they bought with the home equity loans.

Seen this movie before.

MrLiberty
MrLiberty
June 15, 2022 1:27 pm

When he gets to the door marked “government” let me know so I can begin cheering.

49%mfer
49%mfer
  MrLiberty
June 15, 2022 4:40 pm

Lol. COTD!