Are We in a Recession?

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

They will never learn. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell apologized for calling inflation “transitory” when all data pointed to it rising. The White House conveniently changed the definition of a recession days before the GDP data was released and declared that two consecutive quarters of decline no longer qualified as a recession. Now, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is preaching that the US economy is simply in a state of transition.

“When you look at the economy, job creation is continuing, household finances remain strong, consumers are spending and businesses are growing,” Yellen actually stated. Inflation is at a 9.1% high and people can no longer afford the once promised American dream. “We’ve entered a new phase in our recovery focused on achieving steady, stable growth without sacrificing the gains of the last 18 months,” the treasury secretary said, as reported by CNBC. “We know there are challenges ahead of us. Growth is slowing globally. Inflation remains unacceptably high, and it’s this administration’s top priority to bring it down.”

How could driving down inflation be the top priority when the president is continuing to deny domestic energy production while spending recklessly? The truth of the matter is that they know they will cause a mass panic if they say the truth – the US is in a recession.

Jerome Powell covered up the lie last week as well, stating, “I do not think the U.S. is currently in a recession and the reason is there are too many areas of the economy that are performing too well.” Powell cited the high employment rate as a cover. Yet, earlier in the year, Powell admitted that the unemployment rate must rise to tame inflation. He does not want to spook the markets or cause capital to flee the US, as if there is anywhere better to go at this time. “You tend to take first GDP reports with a grain of salt,” Powell surprisingly stated.

Biden also ran with the unemployment dialogue, forgetting that his COVID policies are what displaced most workers. Biden stated outright that the US is not in a recession. The personal consumption expenditures price index spiked 6.8% this June, marking the largest rise since January 1982. CPI hit 9.1% in June, a 40-year high. Inflation is overpowering any wage gains. The supply chain is still strained, even with Chinese ports reopening, and demand far outweighs supply. This is not a mere transition, and our models warn that an economic downturn could continue into 2023.

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29 Comments
Fedup
Fedup
August 1, 2022 7:24 am

If the MSM is pushing the idea that we are not in a recession. That means we are in a recession possibly in the early stages of a depression.

SmallerGovNow
SmallerGovNow
August 1, 2022 7:26 am

“…and our models warn that an economic downturn could continue into 2023.” COULD??? Chip

Dan
Dan
August 1, 2022 7:40 am

Of course we’ve been in a recession. And if economic indicators were measured and reported accurately it would show we’ve been in one since shortly after the Rice Rabies Plannedemic began. We are now steaming full tilt toward a Depression. One that will make the 1930’s look attractive.

Boogieman
Boogieman
August 1, 2022 7:49 am

That smoke billowing up from your house is merely an indicator. The smoke you see should be taken with a grain of salt. It means that in the future your house may be on fire. There’s no rational reason for panic, no need to call the fire department at this time. When we see the flames on the roof, we will reassess the situation and make new recommendations at that time. Go ahead and plan that weekend BBQ party with your friends.

Jerome Powell, Captain of the USFD.

Boogieman
Boogieman
  Boogieman
August 1, 2022 8:54 am

comment image?itok=rvIprxoe

Winchester
Winchester
August 1, 2022 8:15 am

Late stages of a recession heading toward depression. The MSM takes a mile high view of things. Us little people are on the front lines and see the damage. People who were living pay check to pay check to survive then are living off of credit card debt to survive now. Shit is outrageously expensive and only getting worse.

flash
flash
  Winchester
August 1, 2022 8:31 am

Everyone wants to know the difference between a depression and a recession when both have the same effect. Recession is simply the way the Democrats spell depression, explains the Topeka Capital.
— The Hutchinson News (Hutchinson, KS), 14 Mar. 1938

A depression is when wages are cut so low no one makes enough to live on and a recession is when the price of everything goes up so high no one makes enough to live on.
— The Atlanta Constitution, 23 Jan. 1938

The difference between a depression and a recession is that the first creates a class who expect the worst and the latter a class who sweat and expect what they’re getting.
— Lincoln Journal Star (Lincoln. NB), 31 Dec. 1937

Lima Beane thinks the only difference between a recession and a depression is that one is a let-up and the other a let-down.
— Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 21 Dec. 1937

I have already learned the difference between a Recession, a Depression and a Panic. A Recession is where you tighten your belt; a Depression is when you haven’t any belt to tighten, and a Panic is when you have lost your pants.
— The Ephraim Enterprise (Ephraim, UT), 21 Jan. 1949

As to the difference between a recession and a depression, Beck said: “I define a recession as when your neighbor loses his job, but a depression is when you lose your own.”
— The Daily News (New York, NY), 15 Feb. 1954

Boogieman
Boogieman
  flash
August 1, 2022 8:43 am

Another way of looking at it is… A Recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a Depression is when you lose your job.

Tv on mute
Tv on mute
August 1, 2022 8:18 am

Janet Yellen’s voice is like nails on a chalkboard.

Tony LV
Tony LV
  Tv on mute
August 1, 2022 12:58 pm

I think Yellin keeps a couple of marbles in her mouth.

flash
flash
August 1, 2022 8:29 am

Depression = Recession = Transitory

It’s all just word games to cover up the fact that government created debt is a fiscal disaster for all but those who issue the credit.

Money lenders : 100

Humanity: 0

Arizona Bay
Arizona Bay
August 1, 2022 8:39 am

That the very same people who told you inflation was transitory are the very same ones changing the definition of recession and telling you we aren’t in one should be all the information you need.

flash
flash
  Arizona Bay
August 1, 2022 8:44 am

…are the same people who changed depression to recession.

comment image

VOWG
VOWG
August 1, 2022 8:55 am

Changing definitions and attempting to obscure reality with BS and bafflegab in no way alters the outcome.

Anonymous
Anonymous
August 1, 2022 9:12 am

Don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining.

tony
tony
August 1, 2022 9:18 am

“Now, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is preaching that the US economy is simply in a state of transition.”

i wouldn’t have expected less from a jewish cunt. and powell is no different. i always take everything the fed says with a grain of salt. at least he admitted that government statistics have no real meaning.

as alan binder said – i think in the 1970s – it is the last duty of a central banker to tell the truth – which is the same philosophy of freemasons. he was vice chairman of the federal reserve.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  tony
August 1, 2022 10:51 am

Typically, most people are NOT Who/What they say they are.

Anonymous
Anonymous
August 1, 2022 10:58 am

yellin’: “…top priority to bring it down.”

Talk about serendipity!

Finally. Lockstep has been achieved. WE ALL WANT THE SAME THING!

XOXO, See Ya SOON!

Harrington Richardson: Gimme Sachwerte!
Harrington Richardson: Gimme Sachwerte!
  Administrator
August 1, 2022 12:24 pm

This must have been aimed at you. Supposedly Powell or one of the other luminaries recently said they didn’t want to hear another thing from anybody who doesn’t have a PhD in economics. Secure the perimeter of the FED echo chamber. No Austrians allowed!

SmallerGovNow
SmallerGovNow
  Administrator
August 1, 2022 4:55 pm

Okie-Dokie Baghdad Bob… Chip

BL
BL
  Administrator
August 1, 2022 11:09 am

If the hidden hand says it’s gone, it ain’t gone.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
August 1, 2022 11:30 am

Republicans: “They changed the definition of recession!”

Also Republicans: “Puberty blockers are fine.”

rhs jr
rhs jr
  Iska Waran
August 1, 2022 12:22 pm

That’s a very broad paintbrush you’re welding with those pieces of lying slander old buddy; as a Southerner, I hate Republicans per se but the Well Spring source of Pure Evil in America is the Party of Clintons, Obama, Bidens, MSM, etc. You wouldn’t be a Closet Cultural Communist practicing Critical Theory here would you? Just asking for some friends.

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
August 1, 2022 12:33 pm

How about a progression?

I don’t really get the obsession with terminology.

Are things better for people economically speaking or are things worse?

Better/Worse.