Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
This interview with FXStreet is from 2015. Some are surprised at the consecutive rate hikes, but our models have been indicating for a very long time that rates would rise rapidly. There would be no soft landing. Central banks maintained artificially low rates for far too long and were backed into a corner. They created a problem long ago, and it will cause pain for “some time,” as Powell usually states, for the situation to be under control.
-----------------------------------------------------
It is my sincere desire to provide readers of this site with the best unbiased information available, and a forum where it can be discussed openly, as our Founders intended. But it is not easy nor inexpensive to do so, especially when those who wish to prevent us from making the truth known, attack us without mercy on all fronts on a daily basis. So each time you visit the site, I would ask that you consider the value that you receive and have received from The Burning Platform and the community of which you are a vital part. I can't do it all alone, and I need your help and support to keep it alive. Please consider contributing an amount commensurate to the value that you receive from this site and community, or even by becoming a sustaining supporter through periodic contributions. [Burning Platform LLC - PO Box 1520 Kulpsville, PA 19443] or Paypal
-----------------------------------------------------
To donate via Stripe, click here.
-----------------------------------------------------
Use promo code ILMF2, and save up to 66% on all MyPillow purchases. (The Burning Platform benefits when you use this promo code.)
It is my sincere desire to provide readers of this site with the best unbiased information available, and a forum where it can be discussed openly, as our Founders intended. But it is not easy nor inexpensive to do so, especially when those who wish to prevent us from making the truth known, attack us without mercy on all fronts on a daily basis. So each time you visit the site, I would ask that you consider the value that you receive and have received from The Burning Platform and the community of which you are a vital part. I can't do it all alone, and I need your help and support to keep it alive. Please consider contributing an amount commensurate to the value that you receive from this site and community, or even by becoming a sustaining supporter through periodic contributions. [Burning Platform LLC - PO Box 1520 Kulpsville, PA 19443] or Paypal
-----------------------------------------------------
To donate via Stripe, click here.
-----------------------------------------------------
Use promo code ILMF2, and save up to 66% on all MyPillow purchases. (The Burning Platform benefits when you use this promo code.)
Click to visit the TBP Store for Great TBP Merchandise
Would anyone care to make a prediction on how high mortgage rates will go?
I predict somewhere in the 10-12% range by spring.
Bye bye housing market
WOW, by spring of 2023? Damn, that sure would pop whatever is left of the bubble for sure. I have a broker friend and he predicts 14%.
When inflation was just as high as today in 1981 (15%) Volker jacked rates to 18%. Powell is a pussy and we have $31 trillion of debt, so he will stop before 5%. That will not stop inflation. We’ll have stagflation.
Even if they stop now, the pain will continue. People are already struggling hard around me. Food Banks are saying they’re going bankrupt. The Doom Loop has begun. CTV News ran an article about how typical Canadians are reaching a breaking point. No more interest rate hikes needed, the straw is already strapped to the camels back. But I suspect we will end up around 7.5% to 8.5% from current 4.7% 5 year fixed mortgage rate banks are offering. So our Central Bank policy rate should go from 3.75% to about 6.2/3% Things are already going sideways here.
I had one for 12%in 1985. We refinanced down numerous times. I think we paid it off in six or seven years. What is sickening is that to rebuild my $67,000 house today would be as much as half a million. My guess is most of us would have a hard time building our current homes today.
The avg. debt to income is 182% in Canada. I’m sure with with all the stress tests and vetting of mortgage holders, that things will be fine. Canadians are responsible. It’s not like people who are struggling with their responsibilities are deluding themselves further and lining up to buy new vehicles with delivery times of up to a year, or gambling themselves deeper. Perhaps some think that they still have some wealth if their able to order on credit from Amazon(ohh yeah, there’s a package for me, it feels like Christmas). For some they think their problem is because they haven’t got the latest phone but those are free from the carrier and could use an upgrade. Christmas again. It’s ok, most still have a job. Things can’t be getting that bad. The economy is doing great we’re just bargain shopping, coupon clipping, skipping at least one meal a week, Skip the dishes has a new meaning, not showering everyday, turning down/up the thermostat to just a bit uncomfortable. I’m fine as long as I keep making minimum payments. Work seems to be slowing down and The Boss said something about some companies having no paid yet at 90 days. What a lucky guy he’ll make even more profit off that job. Must be nice. Inflation is going to stop soon, and I’ll get a back above the water. Why do they keep raising interest rates? Don’t they see were having a hard time? Why are they fucking me? I voted Liberal/Democratic. I’m supposed to get more freebies, why is Sunak talking about austerity? Can’t they see it’s almost impossible for me to pay my bills? It’s ok, relax they say. Just some short term pain then things will be ok. I just gotta use the food bank for a couple of weeks I’ll be ok. Laid off? I did my job, fucking Boss probably automating my job away so he can have more money, must be nice. It’s ok I signed up for payday loans last week I can still borrow some money and I won’t tell my wife what happened until I get a new job. Man, all the jobs i can do only pay $15.00 an hour how do they expect us to survive on that? Don’t they care about my mortgage? I’ve missed the last 2 payments. And now my wife is asking for a divorce. She says I lied to her. She doesn’t want to sell the house. It’s the only thing we could do, might as well she took the kids to her Mothers. Fucking Bitches, as if things aren’t bad enough right now. Don’t they care? Must be nice. It’s those peoples fault, nobody cares. I’m penniless, homeless, divorced, depressed and out of options. Nobody could see it coming. And neither will they. I found God, got a gun and now I’ll show people what I’ve become.
I started reading at Fucking Bitches and I fully agree.
Another dangerous insurrectionist who cares more about his family and neighbors than he cares about Global Warming and Ukraine. If anybody thinks Parliamentary government is better than our grand spectacle, see above. Canada is now run by the WEF.
Brewer, whats happened with your boys predictions?