Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts
The Kremlin’s demonstrated inability to take proactive and decisive action has convinced Washington there is nothing to fear from Putin and that Russia can be defeated in Ukraine. Indeed, the UK media takes for granted that Ukraine will defeat Russia. Here is the latest headline: “The West Needs a Plan for when Ukraine wins.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/22/west-needs-plan-when-ukraine-wins/
Biden’s recent trip was to shore up the Eastern flank of NATO in anticipation of renewed action against Russia. If the Biden regime favored a peaceful settlement, Biden would not have bothered to meet in Warsaw with the leaders of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria. There would be no need for Biden to go to Kiev to show American support for Zelensky.
I am often interviewed by Russian journalists–never by American ones whose task it is to protect the official narratives. The Russian journalists are ever hopeful for signs that the US favors a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. I was just interviewed about Biden’s trip. Did he go to Kiev to work out a peace plan with Zelensky?
How can anyone possibly think Washington favors a peace plan other than Russia’s withdrawal from Donbass and Crimea and payment of reparations to Ukraine? Washington would favor this plan because it would be likely to bring down Putin, which is Washington’s intent.
Such a withdrawal is one of the Kremlin’s two choices. As such a withdrawal would likely mean the fall of the Putin government, the Kremlin only has one choice: to use the force necessary to quickly bring the conflict to an end before it spirals out of control.
It is astounding that after a year of experience the Kremlin has not figured out that by letting the war drag on and on the Kremlin has given Washington and NATO every opportunity to widen it further with provocation after provocation: sanctions, financial aid, military aid, intelligence, training, targeting information, attack on Crimea bridge, blown up Nord Stream pipelines, tanks, long-range missiles, sooner or later jet fighters.
Now Putin is faced with a possible Ukrainian attack on Transnistria where a few thousand Russian troops, with no reinforcements in sight, are standing guard over a stockpile of Soviet-era weapons and ammunition suitable for Ukrainian use. Will the Russian forces be caught between Ukrainians on their east and Moldavians and Romanians on their West and suffer a defeat that further emboldens the West? https://southfront.org/war-clouds-over-transnistria/
If the Kremlin can’t find the intelligence to get this conflict over with quickly, the Kremlin will be backed into a corner where nuclear weapons are the only option. Not only do some neoconservatives believe Washington can win a nuclear war, but also the West is getting bogus information that Russia’s nuclear weapons don’t work and that there is no danger in attacking Russia. See: https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/general/2167289/all-bark-no-bite-russias-nuclear-weapons-dont-work-anymore-kremlin-defector-claims.html
Even if Russia’s nukes do work, Russia won’t use them the Dutch prime minister says: https://news.yahoo.com/russia-won-t-nuclear-weapons-231300600.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZWFyY2guYnJhdmUuY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB1TmmTs67bisLaTS4nZr1Cax-qI9SSf65DBqhChFEDmsxN0FoJWYHL7xM6TPgRS_-9BWPd_zSD-HiSv1ACGq7gxiYXjAahJTG4djdg10eEyeQcWTlfhSmwlE7tO4Iqt46t8Edvv1az0u_GAxS-sLFH9J3IRC4Xuu1alG8P-BQy6&guccounter=2
This kind of disinformation becomes believable because Putin’s unwillingness to use sufficient force to quickly achieve his aims has created the impression that the Russian military is incapable and after one year has failed to prevail over a third world army. What appears to some as Russian military incompetence and to others as Putin’s lack of resolution encourages more provocative actions by the West. In the West the belief is that Russia’s defeat is only matter of providing the weapons to Ukraine.
It is an unreal feeling to experience Russian journalists looking for a peaceful settlement when Biden’s Undersecretary of State and many military officers are saying that Crimea is a legitimate target for Ukrainian missile attacks. Several days ago Secretary of State Blinken said a Ukrainian attempt to retake Crimea would be a “red line” for Putin and could result in more forceful Russian action, but that the decision is up to Kiev. Of course the decision is not up to Kiev. Zelensky would not dare make such a decision unless Washington gave the go-ahead. Blinken’s statement indicates that Washington has given the go ahead, which suggests that longer range missiles are on the way to Ukraine.
To put it frankly, Putin, the Kremlin, and the Russian military are being discredited by Putin’s failure to commit sufficient resources to quickly win the conflict. Indeed, in the eyes of the West the Russian military is being humiliated by Putin’s policy, and this must have bad effects on Russian military morale.
Today, February 24, 2023, is the anniversary of Russia’s entry into Donbass, which was intended only to free Donbass of Ukraine military and neo-Nazi militias. It was not an invasion of Ukraine. But by under-committing military resources and imposing crippling rules of war, Putin guaranteed that Washington would use the generous time Putin provided to greatly widen the war. Now Putin is faced with the likelihood of missile attacks on the Russian naval base in Crimea. Why is this unimaginable when Washington had no hesitancy in blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines? What will be the next target for attack? Moscow?
When the expected Russian winter offensive did not materialize, those who reported a large buildup of Russian troops and weapons on Ukraine’s border said that Russians were a symbolic people and were delaying the attack for the anniversary date. The date has arrived.
If the attack does not occur, the neoconservatives will become even more confident. Provocations will worsen as they accelerate. Putin will find Russia backed into a corner where nuclear weapons are his only option.
Putin doesn’t realize it, but his inability to act decisively in Ukraine is dooming the world to nuclear war.
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Has anyone realized that NATO has already used up 75% of her military stockpiles?
And Russia is stupid?
The Kremlin’s demonstrated inability to take proactive and decisive action has convinced Washington there is nothing to fear from Putin and that Russia can be defeated in Ukraine.
Is that the definition of a miscalculation, perhaps?
Maybe The Kremlin is demonstrating it’s ability to stay calm under pressure and stick to it’s program?
Also, keep in mind that Washington is in the habit of convincing itself of the truth of things that are patently false. ‘Safe and Effective’™ and ‘Diversity Is Our Strength’™, for example.
“Washington” never believed what they intended for you to believe.
PCR has not realized that people get rich on both sides from protracted war.
Putin is not about to kill the golden goose with nuclear conflict.
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
And there’s the hook. Neocons have no idea who they really are. Probably not a single Christian in the entire lot of them.
Proverbs 14:12 ” There is a way that seems right to a man,
But its end is the way of death.”
Washington and it environs are clear and present danger to the people of The United States of America.
Hearing the stories about the Russian military withholding ammo from the Wagner group got me thinking. The Wagner Group are supposedly criminals released from prisons to fight. Why would anyone expect criminals to be loyal or patriotic to their country. Certainly CIA operating in Ukraine has resources to turn those criminals against Russia.
Never underestimate the evil intent of the CIA.
Never overestimate their competence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Chapman_attack
I can only chuckle at the “Ukraine is winning the war, Russia can’t fight” crowd. No, Ukraine is not winning and never will. Putin made a serious error in thinking the Ukraine regime would collapse with just a modest push from Russia. He did not understand the death grip the U.S. Neo-Con’s have on their stooge Zelensky.
Thus, the initial fall back from Kiev and the ensuing trench warfare over the past year.
Putin has been quietly massing his forces. In the meantime his artillery is blasting the hapless Ukraine forces to bits, every single day. The Russians have always excelled at the use of artillery. Ask the Germans.
Will he unleash a major offensive, accepting the inevitable heavy casualties? I don’t know. But every new provocation by the U.S. and “NATO” makes it more likely.
The result will be a pitiless slaughter of the remaining Ukraine forces, followed, God forbid, by a panic attack in Washington that could lead to the use of nukes.
The truth is, nobody knows how this will play out but all likely scenarios are bad for us.
Nice to see you drop in now and then.
Most intelligent analysis I’ve seen yet.
“Intelligent analysis”?
More like an obvious observation anyone could make with just a short reading of the situation.
Lol! Everyone thinks they know how this is going to turn out. No one does and that includes the WEF and their One World Government plans. Unless the Anti-Christ is running the WEF, things will not turn out they way they plan, particularly by their stupid self imposed deadline of 2030.
And no, most people can’t figure that out after a short read.
The last year only makes sense if the goal of Russia is not to actually win a war, or they are terminally incompetent. I think it’s the first. Time will tell.
I think it’s the stance of the West as well. Like all of the Cold War, it’s not about what you think it’s about.
” It was not an invasion of Ukraine.”
Of course it was.
“the likelihood of missile attacks on the Russian naval base in Crimea. Why is this unimaginable when Washington had no hesitancy in blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines? What will be the next target for attack? Moscow?”
The PC in PCR must stand for pearl-clutching.
Nordstream is a separate thing, if anything it was an act of war against the Europeans.
For nearly a hundred years the great fear of the US / UK has been the alliance of Russia, with its vast natural resources with Germany with its engineering and industrial might. Both world wars, and the Russian revolution, were designed with making sure that never happened.
It is ironic that the actions being currently pursued by the US / UK are driving Russia and China into an alliance that has the potential to be even more powerful… I cannot help but wonder if this is incompetence, or purposeful, and what the end game really is. Could the people threatening the demise of Russia and China be actually setting up the US for that fate?
Perhaps Vlad should hire a few Israeli generals to quickly get thing finished.
The problem with a culture that embraces arrogance is that they begin to believe their own bullshit. They actually begin to believe they are “exceptional” and that other people are inferior. I learned early in life the mistakes of underestimating your rivals.
Sun Tzu commits a large part of the The Art of War to addressing the folly of this practice. In any confrontation, situational awareness is key, and it is not possible to have a realistic awareness of the situation, without proper respect for the abilities of your competition.
When the people in your countries leadership positions are convinced they are superior and their belief systems are based on fiction, and not reality, then your country is weak and vulnerable.
I believe that is a lesson we are destined to learn. Even if we avoid WW3, most of the rest of the world now knows beyond any doubt we cannot be trusted and they must separate themselves from the systems we use to dominate trade and control over others.
The US has prospered over the past 80 years to the extent it has due to the exploitation of other weaker countries. We have become the worlds biggest gangster, using force and fear to impose our will on everyone else.
As always is the case, the day comes when the bully is challenged, and if the bully underestimates the challenger, he often does so at his peril. As a nation, we seem to have reached that point.
It is my belief that both Russia and China have prepared themselves for this time for a long time and that they are approaching it from a very pragmatic position. I believe they know both their own abilities, and ours. That they no longer seem to fear us is something that should be of great worry to us.
If any of you believe Putin is inept, I have swamp land in Florida to sell you.
Propaganda at it’s finest. Now we know exactly on which side of the perverbial fence The Burning Platform stands.
AND Paul Craig Roberts, the author, just exposed himself through The Burning Platform.
The insouciance of PCR is unbelievable. The man has gone off his rocker.
Who is like unto the beast and who is able to make war with him?
NATO is a paper tiger, and so is the US, Russia would destroy both in a war.
https://www.brighteon.com/6875c812-2f95-42c6-b71c-ca139d230475
Scott Ritter at the 41:00 mark lays it all out for the US and Ukraine
The term neocon is Stupid there is Nothing Conservative about being a Warmonger the Real Term is NeoNazis & Always has been. How many Nazis did the US government hire to develop our Military Industrial Complex after WW2 AKA The 4th Reich? This whole sham has been going on almost 80 years now. Which war has the US legitimately fought since WW2 – Korea? That’s it – All others have been For PROFIT. The World is Mostly run by Demonic Buffoons who Must be Exterminated before They Exterminate Us.