WHAT THIS COUNTRY NEEDS NOW IS HOPE

Finch: Why are you doing this?
Evey Hammond: Because he was right.
Finch: About what?
Evey Hammond: That the world needs more than just a building right now. It needs hope.

  

The dialogue above occurred at the end of the dystopian movie V for Vendetta. It is a tale of revenge and restoring hope among citizens who had chosen safety and security over freedom and liberty. Even though this movie was fictional and adapted from a comic strip, its message and warnings should be heeded. Millions of middle class citizens in the U.S. sink deeper into despair every day. Day by day hope is being lost that the future for our children will be better than our past. The political, financial, and corporate leaders of our country are intellectually and morally bankrupt. The major Wall Street banks are bankrupt. Social Security is bankrupt. Medicare is bankrupt. The whole damned world is bankrupt. Anyone with an unbiased view of our planet would conclude that we are in unfathomable danger. The list of impending catastrophic issues that will blow up the world for millions in the U.S. and across the globe is virtually endless:

U.S. Debt

  • The national debt is currently $14.6 trillion, up from $5.7 trillion in 2000. It took over 200 years to accumulate the first $5.7 trillion of debt and only 11 years to tack on another $8.9 trillion.
  • With the new $450 billion jobs package proposed by President Obama, the deficit in FY12 will likely exceed $1.8 trillion, or 12% of GDP. Greece’s 2010 deficit was 10.5% of GDP.
  • Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart in their book This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, using data from 44 countries over 200 years, concluded that once a country’s national debt exceeds 90% of GDP, the economy stagnates and ultimately makes that country vulnerable to a debt crisis. The U.S. national debt as a percentage of GDP is currently 97% and will reach 107% in 2012. This does not count state and local debt, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt, and the unfunded liabilities for Social Security and Medicare. We are at the same place Greece was in 2007. But we’re no Greece, right? This time is different.

 

  • Total credit market debt of $52.5 trillion is 3.5 times GDP, versus a long-term leverage ratio of 1.6. This is called living well above your means on borrowed money. We have a long way down before we reach the bottom of this mountain of debt.

  • Despite the rhetoric out of Washington D.C. by the thieves and knaves about cutting deficits, the National Debt is on course to increase by $9 trillion in the next 10 years. It will reach $20 trillion by 2015.

 

Entitlements

  • The commitments made by politicians over decades in order to get elected have resulted in unfunded liabilities for Social Security and Medicare exceeding $100 trillion.

 

  • In 1980, just 11.7% of all personal income came from government transfer payments.  Today, 18.0% of all personal income comes from government transfer payments. Wages and salaries paid by private industries totals $5.5 trillion per year, while wages paid by government total $1.2 trillion and social welfare payments from the government total $2.3 trillion. Only ten years ago wages and salaries from private industries totaled $4.1 trillion, while government wages were only $800 billion and welfare payments totaled $1.1 trillion. In ten years the percentage increases paint the true picture: 
    • Private wages & salaries increased 34% 
    • Government wages & salaries increased 50% 
    • Government social welfare transfer payments increased 109% 
  • Despite the rhetoric from politicians, there is no lock box and there is no cash in the Social Security fund. John Mauldin summed it up nicely: “Social Security funds are an entry into a government accounting book that don’t really exist except as an IOU. Politicians of all stripes have used the Social Security money to pay for other government expenses. Those funds were even counted to offset the deficit, although now that Social Security is no longer in a surplus that has gone away.”
  • This year, about 3.3 million people are expected to apply for federal Social Security Disability benefits. That’s 700,000 more than in 2008 and 1 million more than a decade ago. Today, about 13.6 million people receive disability benefits through Social Security or Supplemental Security Income. Last year, Social Security detected $1.4 billion in overpayments to disability beneficiaries, mostly to people who got jobs and no longer qualified, according to a recent report by the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress.

Employment

  • The official unemployment rate in the U.S. is 9.1% with 14 million people unemployed. The true unemployment rate, taking into account discouraged workers, part time workers who want a full time job, and people who have dropped out of the work force, is above 20%, or 31 million people.
  • It now takes the average unemployed worker in America about 40 weeks to find a new job.

  • Even after a supposed recovery, there are approximately 7 million less people employed today than there were in 2007.
  • The employment to population ratio of 58.2% is at the same level as 1969, before women entered the workforce in record numbers. As wages stagnated and inflation drove costs higher, families were forced to send two parents into the workforce, with predictable consequences to their latchkey children. The ratio peaked in 2001 at 64.4% and has declined precipitously since 2008.

civilian population ratio

Poverty

  • The number of people on food stamps has gone from 27 million people receiving $30 billion of aid in 2007 to 45 million people (14.5% of U.S. population) receiving $72 billion in aid today.

 food stamp participation

  • The number of uninsured Americans totals 49.9 million.
  • Those covered by employer-based insurance continued to decline in 2010, to about 55%, while those with government-provided coverage continued to increase, up slightly to 31%. Employer-based coverage was down from 65% in 2000.
  • One out of every six elderly Americans now lives below the federal poverty line.
  • Another 2.6 million people slipped into poverty in the United States last year and the number of Americans living below the official poverty line, 46.2 million people, was the highest number in the 52 years the Census Bureau has been publishing figures on it.
  • The percentage of Americans living below the poverty line last year, 15.1%, was the highest level since 1993. (The poverty line in 2010 for a family of four was $22,314)
  • Blacks experienced the highest poverty rate, at 27%, up from 25% in 2009, and Hispanics rose to 26% from 25%. For whites, 9.9% lived in poverty, up from 9.4% in 2009. Asians were unchanged at 12.1%.

Income

  • Median household income fell 2.3% to $49,445 last year and has dropped 7% from the peak of $53,252 reached in 1999.
  • Median household income for the bottom tenth of the income spectrum fell by 12% from a peak in 1999, while the top 90th percentile dropped by just 1.5%.
  • Between 1969 and 2009, the median wages earned by American men between the ages of 30 and 50 dropped by 27% after you account for inflation.
  • Median income fell across all working-age categories, but the sharpest drop was among young working Americans, ages 15 to 24, which experienced a decline of 9%.
  • When you adjust wages for inflation, middle class workers in the United States make less money today than they did back in 1971.

Wealth Inequality

  • The wealthiest 1% of all Americans now controls 43% of all the financial wealth in this country.
  • According to the Federal Reserve, the richest 1% of all Americans has a greater net worth than the bottom 90% combined.

 

  • The fact is that many people in the bottom half of the top 1% wealthiest Americans usually achieved their success after decades of education, hard work, saving and investing as a professional or small business person. A recent article by William Domhoff quotes an investment manager who works with very wealthy clients regarding the top 0.1%:

Unlike those in the lower half of the top 1%, those in the top half and, particularly, top 0.1%, can often borrow for almost nothing, keep profits and production overseas, hold personal assets in tax havens, ride out down markets and economies, and influence legislation in the U.S. They have access to the very best in accounting firms, tax and other attorneys, numerous consultants, private wealth managers, a network of other wealthy and powerful friends, lucrative business opportunities, and many other benefits. Membership in this elite group is likely to come from being involved in some aspect of the financial services or banking industry, real estate development involved with those industries, or government contracting.

  • Until 1980, the U.S. economic system was reasonably balanced, with manufacturing still the driving force in creating wealth for the middle class. In the three decades since, our political, banking and corporate elite have gutted our industrial base, shipped millions of jobs overseas and have used financial schemes and scams to suck the vast majority of middle class wealth into their grubby little hands. Wall Street has slowly and methodically pillaged the nation’s wealth, hollowing out a once vibrant nation, and their insatiable greed driven appetite drives them to want more. 

 

Consumer Debt

  • Total consumer debt in the United States at $2.45 trillion is now more than 8 times larger than it was just 30 years ago. The recent leveling off is completely due to hundreds of billions in write-offs by the Wall Street banks. The chart below is a Keynesian dream of government borrowing to create prosperity. The fallacy of Keynesianism is evident for all to see.

  • According to the Federal Reserve, between 2007 and 2009 household net worth in the United States fell by 25%, or $16.4 trillion.
  • The Federal Reserve says that median household debt in the United States has risen to $75,600.
  • Of U.S. households that have credit card debt, the average amount owed on credit cards is $15,800.
  • The top 10 credit card issuing banks control 80% of the credit card market, with Bank of America, Citicorp, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo accounting for almost 60% of the market.

 

  • The average APR on credit card with a balance on it is 13.1%. These same banks are borrowing at 0% from the Federal Reserve.
  • Penalty fees from credit cards added up to over $21 billion in 2010.
  • There are 610 million credit cards held by U.S. consumers, with 3.5 credit cards per cardholder.
  • Americans now owe more than $887 billion on student loans, which is even more than they owe on credit cards.

Real Estate

  • U.S. home values have fallen an astounding $6.6 trillion since the peak of the real estate market.
  • National home prices have fallen 31% from their peak in 2005.
  • Approximately 11 million households, or 23% of all households with a mortgage, are underwater on their mortgage.
  • Household percent of equity is at 38.6% today, down from 60% in 2006. There are 87 million households in the U.S. Approximately 25 million of these houses have no mortgage, so the 52 million have significantly less than 38.6% equity.

 

  • Americans were so sure their houses would appreciate to infinity during boom years of 2005 through 2008 they withdrew over $3 trillion of equity from their homes and spent it like drunken sailors. The hangover will last for decades.

 

Savings & Retirement 

  • The S&P 500 Index reached 1,100 on March 24, 1998. The S&P 500 Index on October 4, 2011 is 1,100. Wall Street convinced millions of dupes that they needed to buy stocks for the long run. Thirteen years later, the average investor has nothing, while the shysters on Wall Street have reaped hundreds of billions in fees.
  • The stock market is priced to return 5% over the next decade, while bonds are priced to deliver no more than 2%.
  • 1 out of 3 Americans has no savings at all.
  • Workers estimate their retirement savings needs at $600,000 (median), but in comparison, less than one-third (30%) have currently saved more than $100,000 in all household retirement accounts.
  • The average 401k balance at the end of 2010 was $71,500. Aon Hewitt estimates that it will take retirement savings of 15 times your final salary to maintain your current lifestyle. Someone making $50,000 per year would need $750,000.
  • 50% of all the households in the U.S. (57 million households) have a total net worth less than $70,000. 
  • Robert Novy-Marx of the University of Chicago and Joshua D. Rauh of Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management recently calculated the combined pension liability for all 50 U.S. states.  What they found was that the 50 states are collectively facing $5.17 trillion in pension obligations, but they only have $1.94 trillion set aside in state pension funds.
  • Every single day more than 10,000 Baby Boomers will reach the age of 65.  That is going to keep happening every single day for the next 19 years.
  • Approximately 3 out of 4 Americans start claiming Social Security benefits the moment they are eligible at age 62.  Most are doing this out of necessity.
  • 35% of Americans already over the age of 65 rely almost entirely on Social Security payments alone.

Foreign Trade

  • The U.S. trade deficit is now running at approximately $600 billion per year. It is clear that with the shift from a manufacturing based saving society in the 1960s and 1970s to a Wall Street finance based, debt driven consumption society from 1980 onward has led to massive trade deficits.

 

  • The gutting of the American middle class can again be traced back to 1980 when manufacturing employment peaked at 19.5 million. Once corporate CEOs embraced “globalization” in the late 1990s and realized they could reap obscene profits and compensation packages by utilizing slave labor in China to do American manufacturing jobs at 10% of the cost, the jobs disappeared. There are less than 12 million manufacturing jobs in the U.S. today, replaced by jobs at Wal-Mart and McDonalds.

 

  • The U.S. imports 9.5 million barrels per day of oil, more than 50% of our daily consumption. At an average price of $90 for 2011, we are sending $300 billion per year to countries that hate us and despise our way of life.

Energy

  • The U.S consumes 22% of the world’s oil output despite having only 4.5% of the world’s population.
  • The U.S. has less than 3% of the world’s proven oil reserves.
  • The Department of Energy was created in 1977 with the mission to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. The country has not built a new oil refinery or nuclear power plant since 1980.
  • In 1980 the U.S. imported 37% of our oil consumption. We now import 51% of our oil consumption.
  • In 1980 the price of a gallon was $0.58 per gallon ($1.90 adjusted for inflation). Today, the price of a gallon of gasoline is $3.40.
  • The DOE employs 16,000 workers & 100,000 contract workers, and operates on a mere $27 billion per year. Ironically, the DOE spends $300 million per year for energy in its 9,000 buildings around the country.
  • Despite being created to create a comprehensive energy policy, the DOE has no plan or strategy to address peak cheap oil. The impact on U.S. society from declining world oil supply will be devastating to the U.S. economy within the next five years.

Foreign Interventionism

  • America’s two wars of choice in the Middle East have cost $1.3 trillion in direct costs, thus far. The long-term costs will total over $3 trillion. 
  • The United States annual military spending is 8 times as large as China and Russia. We spend 73 times as much as the supposed dire threat of Iran. The U.S. accounts for over 44% of worldwide military spending.

 

  • In the year 2000, the U.S. spent $359 billion on Defense, including veterans and foreign aid ($17 billion). The 2011 expenditure is $965 billion, with $45 billion in foreign aid. Do the politicians in Washington D.C. recognize the irony of borrowing $45 billion from foreigners and then giving the $45 billion to other foreigners?
  • The U.S. operates 11 large carriers, all nuclear powered. In terms of size and striking power, no other country has even one comparable ship.  The displacement of the U.S. battle fleet – a proxy for overall fleet capabilities – exceeds, by one recent estimate, at least the next 13 navies combined, of which 11 are our allies or partners.
  • The U.S. military empire is vast. Officially, more than 190,000 troops and 115,000 civilian employees are massed in approximately 900 military facilities in 46 countries and territories (the unofficial figure is far greater). The US military owns or rents 795,000 acres of land, with 26,000 buildings and structures, valued at $146 billion.
  • With the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the military industrial complex needed to create a new enemy in order to keep the billions in profits flowing to the arms manufacturers. The War on Terror has been a windfall for the military industrial complex. The American people did not heed President Eisenhower’s warning.

Monetary Policy

  • The Federal Reserve was created in 1913 with the purpose of stabilizing the country’s financial system, eliminating financial panics, keeping prices steady, and insuring maximum employment. The result has been more instability, depressions, recessions, market crashes, unemployment as high as 25%, and inflation that has reduced the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar by 96% since 1913.

 

  • The Consumer Price Index was 10.0 in December 1913 when the Federal Reserve was created. Today, the index stands at 227. Prices have risen 2,270% in the almost 100 years since the Federal Reserve’s inception, or inversely the dollar can buy what it took $.04 to buy in 1913. Somehow, the banking syndicate that has “achieved” this result has convinced the public that inflation is good for them.
  • When Richard Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, the last check and balance on politicians and bankers was scrapped. The result has been predictable. The National Debt swelled from $400 billion in 1971 to $14.6 trillion today, a 3,650% increase in 40 years. The GDP grew from $1.13 trillion to $15.0 trillion today, a 1,332% increase in 40 years. Politicians have bought the votes of their constituents by making promises and financial commitments that have made debt slaves out of future unborn generations. Without a restraint on money printing, politicians will always choose to not worry about tomorrow.
  • The Federal Reserve policies of Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke were the single biggest cause of the 2008 financial catastrophe and their current policies have set the country up for the final cataclysmic disintegration of our economic system. By bailing out Wall Street every time they made a high risk bet and lost (1987 Crash, Latin America, S&L Crisis, Asian Crisis, LTCM, Dot Com, 9/11, Housing collapse, Lehman) the Federal Reserve has proven to be a tool for the super rich power elite. By keeping interest rates below where they would be in a free market, the Federal Reserve created the climate for gambling on Wall Street, the home price 3 standard deviation bubble, and the current screwing of senior citizens and savers to boost the profits of Wall Street bankers.
  • In August 2008 the Federal Reserve balance sheet consisted of $940 billion of mostly U.S. Treasury securities. Today, the Federal Reserve balance sheet totals $2.9 trillion and is filled with toxic mortgage debt shoveled from the insolvent Wall Street banks onto the plate of the American taxpayer. The Federal Reserve balance sheet is leveraged 55 to 1, meaning a 2% loss would wipe out their capital. Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were leveraged 30 to 1 when they went belly up.

 

  • During the recent financial crisis the Federal Reserve secretly loaned $16 trillion to the biggest banks in the world, including $4 trillion to foreign banks. This goes far beyond the mandate they were given by Congress in 1913. The Fed had no regulatory authority or ability to judge the credit worthiness of these foreign banks, but risked $4 trillion of U.S. taxpayer funds propping them up. With European banks on the verge of bankruptcy, the Federal Reserve risks losing even more money if they become the lender of last resort.

 

  • In the 3rd Quarter of 2008 American savers were able to generate $1.4 trillion of interest income on their savings. Much of this interest went to risk adverse senior citizens who depended on this income to make ends meet after two years of no increases in their Social Security payments. Three years later savers are only generating $1 trillion of interest income or 30% less, while their costs for food and energy have risen 5% to 10%. The Federal Reserve instituted a zero interest rate policy in order to enrich their Wall Street masters, while further impoverishing the middle class and senior citizen savers that are the true backbone of the nation. Ben Bernanke has purposely transferred $400 billion from the prudent to the profligate.

When I started to detail the issues facing our country today, I expected to come up with 10 to 20 bullet points of key concerns. As I methodically worked through the categories of challenges facing the American Empire, the total reached 76 bullet points. The facts as presented above paint a picture of impending doom for America. The slogans and vapid “solutions” proposed by political candidates and entrenched Washington politicians do not even scratch the surface of what would need to be done to save this country from economic collapse. Many of these problems took decades to create and are not solvable in a reasonable time frame. With the country still delusional, overleveraged, and underemployed, it seems like the existing economic and social structure will need to be blown up to restore hope in this country.

“A building is a symbol, as is the act of destroying it. Symbols are given power by people. A symbol, in and of itself is powerless, but with enough people behind it, blowing up a building can change the world.” – V in V for Vendetta

Look In the Mirror

After accepting the fact that the economic situation as presented above is beyond repair, two questions come to mind:

  1. How did we get in this predicament?
  2. How do we get out of this predicament?

The difficulty with trying to explain how we got here is that people want simple answers and a bad guy to blame. People want to blame the rich or blame the poor or blame the phantom ruling elite or blame the other political party. They prefer to blame someone else, rather than looking in the mirror. It took a century of bad decisions, delusional thinking, unparalleled hubris, greed, sloth and willful ignorance to place the country on the precipice of ruin. The American people are responsible for the situation they find themselves in today. We elected the politicians that passed the laws, created the agencies, borrowed the money, and spent the country into oblivion. The truth is human beings are flawed creatures. We are prone to greed, laziness, seeking power, worrying about what others think about us, delusional thinking, herd mentality, shallowness, and cognitive dissonance. All of these human weaknesses have contributed to our current dilemma.

Until the twentieth century the United States generally kept their nose out of foreign conflicts, only getting involved in small regional conflicts. The country experienced tremendous growth during the 1800s and early 1900s with virtually no inflation and no central bank. The country experienced this remarkable expansion with no personal or corporate income tax. The nation also benefitted tremendously from the discovery of oil in Titusville, PA in 1859, as oil fueled the industrial revolution in the U.S. The election of Woodrow Wilson in 1912 marked a dramatic turning point in U.S. history. Within one year the country had a personal income tax and a central bank. As with most things created by politicians, they seemed harmless at first. The tax rate for 99% of Americans was 1%. The central bank was given a limited mandate to keep our banking system stable. Within a century we have a 60,000 page Federal tax code and a myriad of taxes at the Federal, State and local level. The Federal Reserve has more power and control over our lives than any entity on earth.

Giving politicians the ability to tax its citizens and print money allowed them to do things and make commitments that would have been impossible prior to 1913. After being re-elected in 1916 on a platform of keeping the country out of World War I, Wilson committed the country to that war. By 1919 the tax rate was already at 4% for most Americans and the Federal Reserve was printing money to finance the war, generating inflation of 16% per year between 1917 and 1920. Thus began a century of foreign interventionism and debt financed social welfare programs. The Federal Reserve created the easy monetary conditions of the 1920s which brought about the boom and bust of the 1929 stock market collapse. This precipitated the Great Depression and the conditions that led to the rise of fascism and World War II. The tinkering by politicians with our monetary system created more problems, which politicians attempted to solve by passing new laws and creating new programs and agencies. Without an unlimited supply of taxes and money printed by the Federal Reserve, politicians would have been constrained.

The somewhat logical reaction to the Great Depression by Franklin Delano Roosevelt was to create make work programs, housing agencies and social welfare programs to keep the citizens from revolting. He did this through the creation of debt, doubling the National Debt from $22 billion in 1932 to $44 billion by 1940. This is when the entitlement mindset took root. The creation of OASDI (Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance) in 1935 was not supposed to be a retirement plan. People didn’t retire in 1935. It was created to make sure widows and orphans did not starve to death during the Great Depression. Again, the rate was only 1% at the outset. The age at which you were eligible to receive assistance was 65, four years greater than the average life expectancy of 61 years old. It was created as an insurance program and has morphed into a glorified retirement plan that convinced millions of Americans they didn’t need to save for their own retirement. It is $17.5 trillion in the hole because life expectancy is now 79 years old, politicians expanded coverage and refused to level with the American public for fear of losing elections.

The psychology of entitlement has grown over the decades as politicians made promises with borrowed money. They created Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare to provide pension and healthcare to all senior citizens. They created Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Section 8 housing because everyone deserved to own a home. They created unemployment compensation, SNAP, and SSDI to sustain the disabled and down on their luck.  Veterans are entitled to benefits as a result of their military service. These entitlements have become ingrained in our society. Charles Hugh Smith captured the essence of our entitlement mindset in a recent article:

“The entitlement mindset is thus firmly established in the American psyche. If we experience bad luck and/or the negative consequences of poor choices, we have been trained to expect the government at some level to alleviate our suffering, cut us a check or otherwise address our difficulties. The poisonous problem with the entitlement mindset is intrinsic to human nature: once we “deserve” something, then our minds fill with resentment and greed, and we focus obsessively on creating multiple rationalizations for why we deserve our fair share.”

The ability to tax and print trillions of dollars has enabled politicians to convince Americans they don’t need to save for their own retirement, they don’t need to worry about the cost of their healthcare, they don’t need to educate themselves, and they don’t need to help their neighbors because the government will do it for them. Once the entitlement mindset became ingrained in our society, self reliance, the ability to adapt to adverse circumstances, charitable acts, and taking responsibility for your own health and welfare rapidly declined among the populace. Government programs have been sold to the American people as acts of compassion for the less fortunate. Instead they have become a bureaucratic nightmare, creating dependence and a permanent underclass with no incentive, ability or desire to raise themselves up.

Human weakness and failings have also led to an over-class that have done far more damage to the country than those in society dependent on the state for their subsistence. The best description of this country at this point in history is a Warfare-Welfare-Corporatocracy. Since World War II the undue influence of the military industrial complex has led to almost constant conflict and foreign interventionism on a grand scale never matched in world history. President Eisenhower’s warning went unheeded:

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.”

The people of this country have traded liberty and freedom for the appearance of safety and security by allowing the corporate military establishment and their bought political cronies to use fear and phantom threats to convince the non-critical thinking masses to beg for protection. The Cold War was replaced by the War on Terror, while the truth is that we keep our troops in the Middle East to protect “our” oil under “their” sand. Attempting to maintain an empire through troops garrisoned in countries across the globe, patrolling the seas with our navies, buying the “friendship” of dictators, and saber rattling or invading countries we don’t like is a folly that has brought down many empires before ours.

The most decisive factor in the disastrous financial predicament we are experiencing today is the tsunami of Wall Street greed and avarice that was unleashed upon the nation starting in 1971 with Nixon closing the gold window and allowing the Federal Reserve to “manage” the currency with no hindrances like gold to keep them from going too far. Prior to the 1980’s Wall Street investment banks were partnerships. If a partner took an extreme risk he would endanger the personal assets of all the partners. This insured prudent lending practices. Once they became corporations the risk was passed to shareholders and as we’ve recently found out – taxpayers, while bank executives could reap obscene compensation by taking world shattering risks. The repeal of the Glass Steagall Act in 1999 and the obstruction in regulating the derivatives market by Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers created the playing field that allowed Wall Street go on a drunken rampage, pushing the worldwide financial system to the point of collapse in 2008.   

 What Happens Next?

 

“I felt like I could see everything that happened, and everything that is going to happen. It was like a perfect pattern, laid out in front of me. And I realized we’re all part of it, and all trapped by it. With so much chaos, someone will do something stupid. And when they do, things will turn nasty.” Inspector Finch – V for Vendetta

Gains and Losses in 2007-2009, Average CEO Pay vs. Average Worker Pay

The chart above explains why anger and rage are beginning to bubble to the surface in cities across the country. It is clear there are no simple explanations or one answer to why the country is facing such calamitous circumstances. Essentially, human failings that have existed for all eternity have conspired to drain the vitality, risk taking, self reliance, personal responsibility and common sense from a once great nation. We know the uneducated, unmotivated lower classes, after decades of being kept down through our entitlement system, are unable and unwilling to do anything about their situation, as long as the entitlements keep flowing. It is the richest .01% that has accumulated the wealth, power and undue influence over the management of country. Either through inheritance, intelligence, connections, hard work, or luck, a few hundred thousand individuals out of 310 million people control the system. Immense wealth in the hands of the few has created a system where the few control the media, politicians, banking system, and mega-corporations that dominate our economy. Their human weaknesses include being egomaniacal power hungry materialistic greedy men who will stop at nothing to retain and increase their vast wealth. They have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams in pillaging the wealth of the middle class. But, they’ve gone too far.

They’ve manipulated the tax code in their favor. They make up most of the Senate, House and Judiciary. They own the mainstream media outlets. They are the masters of the universe on Wall Street. They run the mega-corporations that have shipped American jobs overseas. They pay millions to have the laws and regulations written for their benefit. They created the social welfare system, the public education system, and the healthcare system that keeps a vast swath of the population impoverished, ignorant and dependent upon the mutant organism that enriches the few. They’ve convinced the bulk of non-critical thinking Americans that the government can create jobs and make their lives safe and secure. This is the point where critical thinking Americans need to honestly answer a few questions to decide what happens next.  

Did Social Security make our retirements more secure? Did the Department of Education make our children smarter? Did the Department of Energy reduce our dependence on foreign oil? Would there be more or less than 160,000 structurally deficient bridges in the U.S. without the Department of Transportation? Does paying unemployment compensation for 99 weeks increase employment or create jobs? Did Medicare and Medicaid make people healthier and reduce healthcare costs? Has putting our faith in mega-corporations for health insurance, drugs and job creation benefitted middle class workers? Has the War on Terror made the average American safer? Did the War on Drugs reduce the usage and availability of illegal drugs? Did passing more laws lead to a more law abiding society? Does incarcerating more criminals in more prisons reduce crime? Does a 60,000 page IRS tax code result in more taxes being collected? Has issuing more debt to solve a debt induced crisis resulted in a stronger financial system? Does the Republican or Democratic parties have your best interests at heart? Does it matter who is elected President in 2012?

There are solutions to the issues facing our country but they all would result in painful choices, tremendous sacrifice, a willingness to rebalance our economy and lives, and the loss of vast stores of wealth by the top .01% richest Americans. The steps needed would be:

  • A nationalization of the Too Big To Fail banks with the required losses inflicted upon shareholders, bondholders and executives.
  • Re-institution of mark to market accounting rules requiring companies to truthfully report the losses on their loan portfolios.
  • The re-institution of Glass-Steagall to insure that no bank could become too big to fail.
  • Instituting a transparent regulated derivatives market that would insure that no single entity could threaten to crash the worldwide financial system.
  • Scrapping the existing individual personal income tax and replacing it with a flat, fair and/or consumption tax would take away the power of politicians.
  • The elimination of all corporate tax breaks so that multi-billion dollar conglomerates could not get away with paying no corporate taxes (GE).
  • The withdrawal of thousands of U.S. troops from across the globe and a dramatic decrease in military spending would be a voluntary reduction in our empire.
  • A renegotiation of the social contract with changes in eligibility based on age and financial means is the only way to retain a semblance of a social net to protect those who are truly needy. Otherwise the social welfare system will crash.
  • The population would need to accept a dramatic decrease in their standard of living as interest rates would need to be raised and saving would need to replace borrowing as our economic mantra.
  • Acceptance of the impact from peak oil would require a complete restructuring of our suburban sprawl existence with communities forced to become more locally self sufficient.
  • The political system would need to be overhauled with term limits and the elimination of corporate and special interest control over the election process.
  • The Federal Reserve would need to be constrained through the re-introduction of gold and/or a basket of hard currencies as a check on their ability to print money.

Sadly, we all know that none of these solutions would ever be willingly implemented by the existing ruling class. Anyone with an ounce of common sense can see the system is crumbling. The .01% went too far and stole too much. An unsustainable system will not be sustained. The debt load is too burdensome. The peasants are growing restless. Young people have occupied Wall Street. They are beginning to occupy other cities. 700 were arrested on the Brooklyn Bridge. Older people are joining the protests. There isn’t a cohesive message coming from the protestors other than the system is rigged in favor of the top .01%. Those who think they are in control are losing their grip. They see their power and wealth slipping away. They’ve had their way for decades and will not willingly submit to a change in the existing social order. Last night Jim Cramer voiced the concerns of the .01% by saying the Occupy Wall Street protests were worrisome. They are worrisome to the moneyed interests. They are a reason for hope to the 99.9%. We are approaching our moment of truth. There is something terribly wrong with this country. A new American Revolution has begun. It is time to stop being afraid and take this country back. What happens next? The choice is ours.

While the truncheon may be used in lieu of conversation, words will always retain their power. Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth. And the truth is, there is something terribly wrong with this country, isn’t there? Cruelty and injustice, intolerance and oppression. And where once you had the freedom to object, to think and speak as you saw fit, you now have censors and systems of surveillance coercing your conformity and soliciting your submission. How did this happen? Who’s to blame? Well certainly there are those more responsible than others, and they will be held accountable, but again truth be told, if you’re looking for the guilty, you need only look into a mirror. I know why you did it. I know you were afraid. Who wouldn’t be? War, terror, disease. There were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense. Fear got the best of you, and in your panic you turned to….. – V’s speech to the British people in V for Vendetta

 

 

 

 

CDS RATES CAUSING GLOBAL CREDIT CRISIS

The banks in Europe fucked up — betting on Greece like our morons doing God’s work in the US bet on housing.

Assholes!

The bets the banks made went south like some Smokey team pick.

Shocker.

Now the price to insure the moron-bank’s bonds is blowing out.  This is causing a massive credit crunch.  Anything not nailed down is getting sold (think back to gold losing $300 bucks.)  The banks are smart enough to not trust one another.  Credit is drying up.

Dexia is Belgium’s largest bank it is French based also.

2008 Redux on a global scale never seen before.

“Credit default swaps on lenders as far afield as China and Australia, countries that until recently seemed immune to the chaos, have doubled in the last two months to levels not seen since the financial crisis.

In Europe, French and Belgian government officials are due to meet on Monday to discuss the crisis enveloping Dexia as speculation mounts about a possible break-up of the Franco-Belgian lender.

Last week, the cost of insuring Dexia bonds hit an all-time high of 900 basis points, nearly double the level just two months ago, meaning the annual cost to insure €10m (£8.59m) of the bonds is £900,000.

“The money ran out in June and what you are seeing now is the beginning of a new credit crunch, except this time it will be truly global, not Western,” said one senior London-based credit analyst.

Dexia, along with other European lenders, has been hard hit by the closure of the interbank lending markets and the continuing unwillingness of investors to buy the bonds of eurozone banks.”

OCCUPY

This movement is growing. You can try to rationalize who these people are, but you will be wrong. This isn’t about Republican or Democrat. It isn’t about socialism or capitalism. This is about the mood of the country. The people protesting are young and old. They are liberal and conservative. This is about anger raging against the machine. This is the beginning of the end for the old order. They don’t know it yet, but they will be swept away by the mood change in this country. These small protests will morph into something bigger. They are peaceful so far, but someone will do something stupid. A protestor will kill a cop or a cop will kill a protestor and then things will explode. This is a Fourth Turning. Bad shit happens during Fourth Turnings and people die. Don’t think for one moment these protests mean nothing.

Occupy Los Angeles protesters camp for second night at City Hall

October 2, 2011 | 10:07 pm
  Shayne Eastin, 27, of Los Angeles

Protesters who have camped outside Los Angeles City Hall since Saturday, inspired by on-going Occupy Wall Street demonstrations in New York, will spend a second night sleeping on the pavement this evening.

Loosely organized by a group called Occupy Los Angeles, several hundred people marched and rallied Sunday, holding signs that blasted corporate influence on government. They used Internet sites to mobilize and get attention.

Photos: Sunday’s protest and parade downtown

Tents and blankets dotted the lawn in front of City Hall on Sunday, as people came and went from the encampment. Some stood on the sidewalk holding signs. Sunday night passing cars periodically honked in a show of support.

“It’s been a very peaceful demonstration,” Los Angeles Police Department Sgt. Mitzi Fierro said. “They’re out there exercising their First Amendment right, so we’re going to allow them to continue as long it doesn’t become an unlawful assembly.”

Following a procedure established Saturday night, the protesters were to be moved from the grass on the south lawn of City Hall to the sidewalk at 10:30 p.m. Sunday, and back from the pavement to the lawn at 6 a.m. Monday.

Occupy Boston protesters march through downtown Boston

Suzanne’ Kreiter/The Boston Globe
Protesters with Occupy Boston marched through downtown Boston today.

By Brian R. Ballou and John R. Ellement, Globe Staff

About 100 people are marching through downtown Boston this morning as part of the Occupy Boston protest.

Accompanied by Boston police officers who stopped traffic at key intersections, the protesters first gathered in the city’s Financial District this morning and then marched to the State House where they stood on the steps, chanting slogans and holding signs.

Some of the signs included “capitalism is organized crime” and “where’s my golden parachute?”

Most of the protesters appeared to be in their 20s. As they walked through the streets they called out to passersby.

“We are the 99 percent,” one group would shout.

“So are you,’’ another group shouted in response.

During the walk, a handful of people apparently heading to work, briefly joined the protest. One woman handed to the marchers the cookies she had made for co-workers.

The group, called Occupy Boston , is inspired by Occupy Wall Street, a demonstration entering its third week in Manhattan’s Financial District that led to the arrest of 700 people Saturday on charges of blocking the Brooklyn Bridge. The effort has spread to dozens of communities nationwide, with tens of thousands of people participating.

In Boston, the protests had been building for several days, and on Friday swelled to about 1,000 in Dewey Square. Police arrested 24 people on trespassing charges when they refused to leave the Bank of America building nearby.

The demonstration, largely fueled by social media, is aimed at calling attention to what protesters call the ‘‘bottom 99 percent’’ of America who are hammered by rising costs for education, housing, and health care.

“Occupy Wall Street” protest movement seeks a Philadelphia foothold

October 02, 2011|By Harold Brubaker, Inquirer Staff Writer

Ahuviya Harel wore a Soviet flag Thursday to the first Occupy Philadelphia planning meeting, one of many efforts nationwide aiming to echo New York’s two-week-old Occupy Wall Street protest against the “greed and corruption” of the richest 1 percent of Americans.

Communism is “my ultimate goal, in many years, for this country,” Harel said, glancing down at the flag, because “the rich keep getting richer, and everybody else is just struggling to get by or getting poorer.”

Later, after the meeting of about 200 in the soaring, ornate sanctuary of the Arch Street United Methodist Church, Shawn McMonigle, who overheard Harel’s comment, urged:

“Don’t skew us with that communist dude.”

McMonigle and the young men he was standing with outside the church said they were not sure how they would change the economic and political systems, though they agree that socialism and communism had been tried in other countries and were not the answer.

McMonigle, an unemployed Fishtown resident, expressed common ground for his group, which comprised a paralegal student stressed about the debt he is taking on to get a degree and a job, a business consultant who said he had seen firsthand the traps financial companies set for the poor, and a retail manager.

“Whatever is happening in the world is not working for the majority of people,” McMonigle said.

In that, the would-be occupiers of Philadelphia, mostly in their 20s, sounded much like many 60-something businessmen who are terrified of the future and convinced that the “dysfunction of our political system,” in the words of former Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, has stacked the economy against them.

The Philadelphia group aims to capture the spirit of Occupy Wall Street, which was inspired by Adbusters, a Canadian activist magazine hoping to spark street demonstrations of the kind that toppled Arab regimes in the spring. Protesters began occupying a park near Wall Street in Manhattan’s Financial District on Sept. 17.

Dozens of such groups have since formed across the United States, spurred by anger at the power of giant corporations, frustration at joblessness, and exasperation with politicians who refuse to increase taxes on the richest 1 percent of Americans while slashing programs for the poor.

GENERIC COLLEGE FOOTBALL POST

More great college football on tap this weekend!
Smokey is knockin’ ’em dead. Another weekend means another chance for mortal locks and deadly precision forecasting. Get your bookie on the line NOW!
And please, as your way of saying thanks to AWD for taking the time and effort to run this fine post every week, please post at least one picture of a scantily clad college girl (Females are excused from doing so), the pictures were a little lite last week.

Schedule:

Northwestern (2-10) vs. (24) Illinois (4-0) 12:00pm ET
Minnesota (1-3) vs. (19) Michigan (4-0) 12:00pm ET
Kentucky (2-2) vs. (1) LSU (4-0) 12:20pm ET
Nevada (1-2) vs. (4) Boise St. (3-0) 2:30pm ET
(21) Georgia Tech (4-0) vs. N.C. State (2-2) 3:30pm ET
Bethune-Cookman (2-1) vs. Miami (FL) (1-2) 3:30pm ET
Washington St. (2-1) vs. Colorado (1-3) 3:30pm ET
SMU (3-1) vs. (20) TCU (3-1) 3:30pm ET
(17) Texas (3-0) vs. Iowa St. (3-0) 7:00pm ET
Oregon St. (0-3) vs. (25) Arizona St. (3-1) 10:30pm ET
Penn St. (3-1) vs. Indiana (1-3) 12:00pm ET
Air Force (2-1) vs. Navy (2-1)12:00pm ET
(14) Texas A&M (2-1) vs. (18) Arkansas (3-1) 12:00pm ET
Michigan St. (3-1) vs. Ohio St. (3-1) 3:30pm ET
(15) Baylor (3-0) vs. Kansas St. (3-0) 3:30pm ET
Bowling Green (3-1) vs. (22) West Virginia (3-1) 3:30pm ET
Arizona (1-3) vs. USC (3-1) 3:30pm ET
Auburn (3-1) vs. (10) South Carolina (4-0) 3:30pm ET
(13) Clemson (4-0) vs. (11) Virginia Tech (4-0) 6:00pm ET
Hawaii (2-2) vs. Louisiana Tech (1-3) 7:00pm ET
Ball St. (3-1) vs. (2) Oklahoma (3-0) 7:00pm ET
(8) Nebraska (4-0) vs. (7) Wisconsin (4-0) 8:00pm ET
(3) Alabama (4-0) vs. (12) Florida (4-0) 8:00pm ET
UCLA (2-2) vs. (6) Stanford (3-0) 10:30pm ET

DEFLATION CRACKS IN “LOGIC”

On why Schilling sees deflation on the horizon:

“In my new book, I identify seven different types of deflation. Now five of those are already in place — we’re having financial asset deflation, tangible asset deflation, commodities are coming down, wages are coming down. The one that hasn’t kicked in yet is goods and services deflation. The point is that the whole world is really marking down assets. It’s marking down the whole spectrum. I don’t think goods and services are going to hold up in terms of inflation. I think that will move to deflation fairly soon.” Link

Let’s just run with this “deflation” assumption.  Let’s assume <del>Smokey</del> (slip) Schilling is right – for a second.  So we have deflation.  Super.  Prices come down, the dollar strenghtens and that is a good thing.

Right?

Well, not for government revenues.  Our government debt doesn’t deflate.  Professor Kotlikoff pegs our debt at 200 trillion, I’ve said 128 trillion and Bill Gross says 60 trillion off balance sheet and to that we can add another 14.6 for the non-Enron accounted for debt.

Let’s be conservative and go with Gross’s numbers.

We now take in 2 trillion and we piss away 4 trillion.  Or more.  What’ll happen when we take in less than 2 trillion in tax revenues because we have deflating prices?

We could default. That would be massively inflationary as Greece is about to show us.  We import half of our 20 million barrels a day in oil.  Wonder how much gas will cost when our dollar goes from .04 cents in value to .00000000000000000000000000000000000004 cents in value?

We could continue to print the difference.  Zimbabwe here we come.

We could raise rates. Oops, our interest on debt service would kill us and kiss the economy goodbye as commercial credit along with every other type of interest rate would be a firehouse on an already smoldering economy.  And seriously, we’d be at Greek numbers.  Triple digit interest numbers in order to entice enough people to invest in a country that holds more debt than any other country on the globe.

We could cut Grannies Social Security and all her other benefits, cut 46 million people getting food stamps, toss the 99’rs off unemployment.  Oops, we’d have massive social unrest and even less in tax revenues.

SMOKEY’S COUNTDOWN TO IMMINENT ARMAGEDDON

As everyone knows, the date is September 28, 2011. Sometime in the next three days the Muslim terrorists roaming our lands will unleash a massive attack on the U.S. Picture mushroom clouds and death and destruction on an epic scale. It is a stone cold lock to happen. It is imminent. Has Smokey ever been wrong before? Below is a countdown clock. I suggest you check this post frequently over the next few days to watch the countdown to imminent Armageddon.

9% Risk-Free Return in 1 Month: See How I Did It

It’s very rare that you hear the phrase “risk-free return” these days without it being tied to an FDIC-insured CD yielding south of 3%.  Heck, even US Treasuries are no longer considered risk-free by S&P following the recent credit downgrade and there are only 4 AAA companies left in the S&P500.  So, you’re probably thinking there’s some sort of gimmick here, but the reality is, I really DID earn close to a 9% return in a single month in a risk-free investment.  Here’s how!

Continue Reading 9% Risk-Free Return in 1 Month: See How I Did It

5 Reasons to AVOID the Gold ETF GLD

The gold bugs have certainly been gloating of late (well, excluding the prior 2 trading sessions) seeing as how bullion prices, miners and precious metals ETFs have been holding up well while most other asset classes spiral downward in a volatility vortex.  In the short term, sure, gold has performed well and may well continue for some time to come.  However, on a long-term basis, there’s no reason to believe gold, and especially, the most popular gold proxy ETF (GLD) will outperform other conventional asset classes, and in fact, it should probably be expected to actually underperform.  Here’s why.

…continue reading 5 Reasons to AVOID the Gold ETF GLD

The Perfect Storm In A Kondratieff Long Wave Winter

Excellent article on Seeking Alpha from David Knox Barker. I can’t believe Seeking Alpha printed it since it is realistic and not pumping some stock idea. I don’t know much about the Kondratieff Wave Theory, but it seems to have some resemblance to the Fourth Turning dynamic. Maybe someone on the site has a better understanding of the theory. But, if he’s right we’re in for some tough sledding this winter. 

Crashing global stock markets, debt defaults, overproduction, falling prices, tumbling interest rates, global debt deleveraging, and the clear necessity for austerity are all classic long wave forces now in full tilt, producing the perfect storm in a Kondratieff long wave winter. Only long wave theory explains the economic and financial events now unfolding daily in the global economy and financial markets.

Kondratieff

You still have time to prepare for the final crisis phase and debt collapse, but don’t delay. The global economy is now unequivocally in the final years of the long wave winter debt purge and what will be a sharp decline in corporate efficiency. Once this storm passes the global long wave economic reset button will be tripped, and the new global long wave spring season will begin.

The Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff was the first to observe and document the remar

kable recurring long wave patterns in the global boom and bust cycle, driven by global debt and overproduction. He published his findings in the 1920s. His work anticipated the next downturn that unfolded as the Great Depression. Politicians appear to be incapable of seeing beyond a single election cycle. Politicians have ignored the evidence for the long wave once again. Most economists have as well, although a few are starting to pay more attention as the long wave facts are now difficult to ignore.

Some of Kondratieff’s original charts indicate just how far ahead of his contemporaries Kondratieff was in understanding the dynamic ebb and flow of international free market capitalism. There are those that claim he only discovered an agricultural commodity cycle. The charts below and his own words suggest he discovered a long wave dynamic cycle that permeates the entire economy and all of society. He wrote, “The long waves, if existent at all, are a very important and essential factor in economic development, a factor the effects of which can be found in all the principal fields of social and economic life.”

Click to enlarge charts

Chart 2.3 Kondratieff

Political and monetary policies have exacerbated and magnified the natural long wave forces at work in the global economy and financial markets. The global economy now finds itself in a blinding blizzard in the Kondratieff long wave winter season. Many are unprepared and under the delusion that government intervention can and will save the day. Government meddling only makes matters worse. Investors or businesses that count on government policies to save them will be sorely disappointed. The long wave winter season will run its course and the current perfect storm will shatter the illusions of government as the savior of international free market capitalism. Keynesianism will die a merciless death in this long wave winter storm.

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke has admitted that he does not understand why the economy has not responded to the aggressive monetary stimulus of lower interest rates and quantitative easing, so now he tries the twist. Bernanke should read Kondratieff and the findings at the System Dynamics program at MIT, which has validated long wave theory. The long wave is the natural cycle of creative destruction in a free market economy; ignore it at your peril.

The long wave turn from winter to spring is just as natural as winter invariably giving way to spring in the natural seasons of the year. Only long wave theory explains the combination of the current economic and financial market conditions, where excessive debt levels and overproduction are now chipping away at corporate efficiency, forcing investors around the world to discount the present value they are willing to pay for future cash flows. Future corporate margins and therefore cash flows are rapidly becoming uncertain as prices received a plunge from overproduction funded with too much debt. In short, global financial markets are getting an old fashion haircut, maybe even a buzz cut.

The fact that free market capitalism goes through a long wave rough patch is a natural law of sorts in free market capitalism. Don’t mess with mother nature. The Obama Administration has been shocked to discover that fiscal stimulus has failed to generate the expected jobs. The President should expand his reading list. He is now in line to lose his job along with millions of others around the world. In addition to Kondratieff, the President should put Ludwig von Mises’ Human Action, Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations, and Bastiat’s The Law, on his reading list. Government should not try to do what only a free market, free trade and individuals in pursuit of purpose are capable of doing. Human liberty and freedom, unhampered by government intervention, can achieve great things. It is the only solution to the global problems produced by a long wave winter.

Entrepreneurs, new businesses and innovation in existing businesses are the only viable engines of growth and job creation. Substantially lowering corporate taxes for small business and closing tax loopholes will cause the economy to boom and create jobs. Enterprises funded by government in exchange for their political contributions are destined for failure. The politicians involved in any such bribery and conspiracy with taxpayer funds should be sent to jail. Without free market forces and individual responsibility, and swift and harsh punishment for failure, capitalism will not function correctly. Seed stolen from farmers and planted in winter is doomed to failure. It only harms the real farmers and reduces future crops in their natural season.

On the bright side, corporate profits have held up remarkably well in light of the long wave winter forces in play, a testimony to management and the resilience of free market capitalism in crisis. Profits have been driven by emerging market demand, increases in efficiency, lower interest rates, payroll reductions through layoffs and low wage growth. Business has cut to the bone to deliver profits, and there is nothing left to cut. Unfortunately, the global economy is now in a long wave winter storm. Businesses are facing a global collapse in demand, in addition to political interference and stifling regulation. These forces are idling production and putting extreme downward pressure on prices. The CRB is plunging as overproduction swamps global markets with an excess supply of products and services. The long wave forces in play are now beginning to erode corporate profits.

Global leaders are in shock at the specter of a sovereign debt default that is shaking the global financial system to its core. The hopes pinned on emerging markets are fading fast, as even the economies in China, Brazil, Russia and India cool as anticipated during the long wave winter. The perfect storm is gaining strength. Emerging markets are stumbling; corporate profits will now take a hit when the global economy can least afford it.

The global economy is now in the final crisis years of the long wave winter season that will be cruel to corporate profits. The long wave is essentially at its heart a boom and bust cycle of corporate efficiency produced by human action. The winter season is driven by overproduction; this exists in goods and services, which puts downward pressure on prices received. Prices paid are also falling, but in a long wave winter storm prices received will fall much faster. This occurs when excessive debt and the inevitable debt deleveraging by consumers, businesses and governments is creating a severe decline in demand. The overproduction feeds additional price declines and additional contracting corporate margins.

Corporate Efficiency

The long wave boom and bust cycle of corporate efficiency is eventually recognized by global investors searching for a piece of corporate profits to buy in the form of publicly traded stocks. This is occurring now. Every long wave contains two bull markets and two bear markets. The spring and fall seasons of the long wave of rising corporate efficiency and expanding margins are bull markets, the summer and winter seasons of declining corporate efficiency and declining margins produce bear markets.

It takes a while for investors to catch on. The bear market of the global long wave winter began in the late 1990s in most developed markets. It is now in its final years of rapidly deteriorating corporate efficiency and investors around the world are recognizing the squeeze facing corporate profits. There are other long wave forces at work, but the ebb and flow of corporate efficiency and profits is critical to bull and bear markets. Profits are the mother’s milk of stocks, and the milk production will plunge as this long wave winter storm plays out.

The current bear market will run its course along with deteriorating corporate efficiency. The demand destruction of global debt deleveraging will drive corporate margins and profits lower into the expected long wave bottom of 2012-13. A severe global bear market will take stock markets much lower as corporate efficiency and profits are squeezed into the long wave winter bottom.

If you have never seen a long wave in real data, you have never seen a long-term graph of the U.S. 30-Year long bond. Interest rates are the price of money. During a long wave advance, the demand for money is growing and its price is rising; during a long wave decline, the demand for legitimate uses for money is shrinking and its price is falling. The U.S. long bond is a great proxy for the price of money. The demand for borrowing money and its price is falling.

The demand to borrow money by legitimate borrowers that understand what it takes to earn a dollar, i.e., those that have a chance of paying it back, is declining. They do not want to borrow money at this time. For years, my call for a U.S. 2% 30-Year bond and a 1% 10-Year bond at the bottom of this long wave winter has been in place. I see no reason to change that call now. The low in the price of money will coincide with a low for stock prices from late-2012 to mid-2013. The perfect storm of this long wave winter season is driving the price of money lower. Since Chairman Bernanke has called for low rates into mid-2013, maybe someone showed him this chart. Kondratieff would no doubt have loved this chart, which confirms his theory concerning the dynamic ebb and flow of international free market capitalism is not subject to the vagaries of misguided Keynesian manipulation.

Kondratieff Wave in Interest Rates

The current business cycle is the final business cycle of the long wave cycle. What few investors and traders are aware of is a method of technical analysis that suggests that a Kondratieff long wave divided by 144 produces a miniature long wave cycle, a Wall cycle. There are nine Wall cycles in every business cycle. By tracking these Wall cycles both investors and traders can discover more optimal times to buy and sell to reduce risks and maximize returns. This applies whether they buy stocks for the discounted present value of future cash flows, growth, or just to trade the cycles. Unfortunately, global markets are in Wall cycle number six of the current business cycle. This is a third last and weakest cycle, so prepare for outsized volatility and price declines into the bottom of this cycle.

Investors are panicking, even though global markets are experiencing something as natural as a winter blizzard in January. Before it is over, this global bear market will present investors with the greatest discounted buying opportunities for future cash flows since the early 1930s. Keep much of your power dry; 8-16% dividend yields on great global franchise companies are coming to a stock market near you before the perfect long wave winter storm gives way to a global long wave spring in 2013. Those great buys and dividend yields will be compounded many times over during the coming long wave spring season.

BIG BROTHER?

 

I watched this segment last night on 60 Minutes. The NYC police department has 50,000 people working for it. They can shoot down a plane. They purposely intimidate the population through displays of force that have nothing to do with any threat. The entire city is under camera surveillance. Where did they get the money to implement this kind of Big Brother city?

I believe that 60 Minutes meant this to be a positive story about the NYC police department. I had a very uneasy feeling after watching this story. The technology implemented reminds me of Orwell’s 1984. Will it be used to foil terrorists or will it be used against the citizens who disagree with the authorities?

What do you think? 

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7382308n&tag=contentBody;storyMediaBox

POLICE STATE

The NYC police mace peaceful protestors. Imagine what they will do when the protests are no longer peaceful. The anger and rage is building.  

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Welcome to the Police State: NYC Cops Mace Peaceful Protestors Against Wall Street

I’m beginning to wonder whether the right to assemble is effectively dead in the US. No one who is a wage slave (which is the overwhelming majority of the population) can afford to have an arrest record, even a misdemeanor, in this age of short job tenures and rising use of background checks.

Now at least in New York (and I hope readers in other cities will chime in) the right to assemble seems to be pretty much a dead letter. I was in Sydney during the global protests against the Iraq War, and I was told that the New York demonstrations (which were already hindered by typically lousy winter weather) were pretty much blocked by the police. Protestors were tying to gather at the UN, and the cops put up a cordon at Second Avenue. The result was the turnout was far lower than the number who tried to show their opposition and were stopped.

The latest New York City protest is OccupyWallStreet. Even though its turnout last week fell well short of hopes (the estimates from the group were that 2000 participated; the New York Times suggests numbers more like “hundreds” but the photos from the 17th make figures larger figures seem plausible), making it a nuisance level demonstration rather than a major statement, the powers that be seem to be trying a bit too hard to prevent it from getting traction.

The organizers were using Twitter to promote participation and visibility. And so Twitter intervened. From AmpedStatus:

On at least two occasions, Saturday September 17th and again on Thursday night, Twitter blocked #OccupyWallStreet from being featured as a top trending topic on their homepage. On both occasions, #OccupyWallStreet tweets were coming in more frequently than other top trending topics that they were featuring on their homepage.

This is blatant political censorship on the part of a company that has recently received a $400 million investment from JP Morgan Chase.

The protestors were relegated to Zucotti Park, west of Liberty. If you know Lower Manhattan that is technically near Wall Street but well away from any offices buildings. It is on the periphery. The New York Times depicts the demonstrators as naive and ineffective, i.e, harmless:

Occupy Wall Street, a diffuse and leaderless convocation of activists against greed, corporate influence, gross social inequality and other nasty byproducts of wayward capitalism not easily extinguishable by street theater, had hoped to see many thousands join its protest and encampment, which began Sept. 17….

By Wednesday morning, 100 or so stalwarts were making the daily, peaceful trek through the financial district, where their movements were circumscribed by barricades and a heavy police presence. (Various arrests for disorderly conduct were made.) By Thursday, the number still sleeping in Zuccotti Park, the central base of operations, appeared to be dwindling further.

Members retained hope for an infusion of energy over the weekend, but as it approached, the issue was not that the Bastille hadn’t been stormed, but that its facade had suffered hardly a chip.

So the protest is only in the low hundreds. In a separate story, the Times reports that the police arrested 80 as they moved to Union Square (notice how high a percentage that is) and even the anodyne Times makes the policing sound heavy-handed:

The police made scores of arrests on Saturday as hundreds of people, many of whom had been encamped in the financial district as part of a lengthy protest, marched north to Union Square….

Protest organizers estimated that about 85 people were arrested and that about five were struck with pepper spray. Among those was Chelsea Elliott, 25, who said that she was sprayed after shouting “Why are you doing that?” as an officer arrested a protester at East 12th Street….

Nearby, two other protesters standing handcuffed on Fifth Avenue told a reporter that they had both been arrested on sidewalks and were not aware of having broken any law.

“They put up orange nets and tried to kettle us and we started running and they started tackling random people and handcuffing them,” said Kelly Brannon, 27, of Ridgewood, Queens. “They were herding us like cattle.”

Next to her, David Smith, from Maine, said that he had been chanting “Let them go” as people were handcuffed, and was then arrested by a senior officer who told him that he was being charged with obstructing governmental administration.

The article included this tweet:

@DustinSlaughter there’s 50+ of us arrested in a caravan, netted & maced by police after standing on sidewalk where they told us to

This video show police macing women who were already corralled and who made no aggressive or threatening moves

The authorities apparently felt that the response was so low that they could get rough with the protestors, meaning that their perception was that even unflattering coverage would not incite much bigger turnout. Sadly, they may have judged this correctly.

DIABETES, ALZHEIMERS, GENERATORS, RON PAUL & TBP

It has been a very weird week. I spent last weekend writing my Old Man and the Sea article. I wanted to make it the best article I’d ever written as I hoped to convince more people to support Ron Paul. You might not think that writing an article is tiring, but after writing one I’m mentally and physically drained for at least two days. Then I had to head to the shore after work and clean the condo. I don’t know if this is why I’ve been so tired all week. I haven’t had the desire to log onto the site when I get home at night. My eyes have been closing by 9:00 pm every night. The markets were falling all week and the world seems like it is falling apart. I felt like there was a darkness clouding my thinking all week. I just don’t feel normal. Is it just me, or are other people feeling this way?

I also ran across the story below during the week. Japanese researchers have discovered that people with diabetes have a 74% greater chance of getting Azheimers. Just the news I needed to hear to cheer me up. My Dad died of Alzheimers. His brother died of Alzheimers. His sister has Alzheimers. My mother has two sisters with Alzheimers. Every time my mom tells me the same story for the 3rd time, I find myself thinking about when it will get me. When I’m at my desk and I can’t remember someone’s name or what it was I was about to do, a pang of doubt creeps into my mind. I was diagnosed with diabetes about five months ago. So now I have a 74% even greater chance of getting Alzheimers. My Dad got it in his early 70’s. That means I have maybe 25 good years left.

I could choose to be depressed by this situation, but it gives me a sense of urgency. As I walk to my office every morning I look down at the Ben Franklin quotes which have been inserted in the walkway and this one inspires me to keep plugging ahead:

“Lost Time is Never Found Again”  

 When I was diagnosed with diabetes, my doctor told me to lose weight and sign up for a diabetes class to learn about how I would need to live my life. I’ve been partially successful, as I’ve lost some weight, but I never signed up for the course. I tend to put off things that I don’t want to do. I think everyone tends to do this to some extent. I’ve also been writing for three years about the impending disaster that awaits our country due to our fiscal policies and massive debt. But again, I would put off preparations because in the back of my mind I hoped I was wrong. I’ve done more than most, but not enough.

I’m done wasting time. I called and scheduled my diabetes class at the local hospital. It’s time to really get in shape and give myself the best chance to fight off Alzheimers for as long as possible. I truly think things are going to go downhill faster than most people think. So I got off my ass and went out to buy a gas powered generator at Lowes. This purchase generated some interesting comments from a few people. As I pushed it up to the cash register, the cashier looked at it and asked, “Are you expecting something bad to happen?” I responded that I was trying to prepare in case of trouble. I pulled my Honda Insight up to the door and the nice guy from Lowes and I picked up the generator and slid it into the back of the car. A guy stopped as he was walking into the store and asked me what that was. I told him it was a generator. He thought it was funny that I was loading a big honking generator into a hybrid car.

Then I started to get in my car and a middle aged lady suddenly yelled out to me that she supports Ron Paul. She had seen my Ron Paul 2012 Magnet on the side of my car. I responded that he was our only hope. She said it wasn’t fair that he wasn’t getting enough air time on the MSM. She asked me if I was involved in his campaign. She wanted to know how to get involved. I gave her the website of the local Ron Paul support group. Then I told her to look for my Old Man and the Sea Op-Ed which will be in the local paper this week. It gives me hope when I see that middle aged suburban housewives with their daughters are understanding that Ron Paul has the right message.

Lastly, I’ve been somewhat annoyed by the fact that as the popularity of TBP has skyrocketed in the last few months, with visitor counts at all-time highs, the site makes less money every month. For someone with a business background, my efforts in generating revenue from this site have been a miserable failure. The google ads were doing well until google pulled the plug. No one seems to be clicking the new ads, as they are generating about $1 per day. The Amazon ad was pulling in a couple hundred per month and now is generating less than $100 a month. Not one person has opened an account at Everbank. The donation button resulted in an initial flurry of donations, mostly from the regulars on the site (thanks to everyone who made a donation), but there has been virtually no activity since. I did get one donation from a really famous political figure who I have the utmost respect for (I will not reveal his name). It blows me away that famous people read this site.

So, somehow I’ve turned the whole internet dynamic of increasing visitor counts into increased revenue on its head. The truth is that I could probably write articles with the specific purpose of generating revenue, but I have no interest in doing so. I’m trying to make a difference. Whenever I start to get annoyed by the lack of income, I think back to the reason I started writing in the first place. I want to leave my sons a country where they have a chance for a better life than I’ve had. My research for The Old Man and the Sea article has convinced me that winning or losing doesn’t matter. Fighting for the truth and fighting the good fight to the end is all that matters at the end of the day. I might get dejected, depressed, angry, and moody, but I’ll keep battling for the future of my kids.

I think we’ve created a somewhat dysfunctional support group at TBP, but it’s our dysfunctional support group. As things get worse over the coming months and years, hopefully our little community will function as a possible backbone for a new dynamic in our country based on local communities being self supportive. The government will not be the answer. Supporting local charities, helping your neighbors, and supporting your family are what matters. The ending will be the same for everyone who walks this earth. What matters is the course chosen on the voyage through life. Lost time is never found again.

I try to help the people in my community by donating to http://www.mannaonmain.org/.

I’m trying to help my country by donating to https://secure.ronpaul2012.com/.

We know bad times are ahead. Do what you can do to help make this a country you can be proud of.

Diabetes can Lead to Dementia

By Lenina C. | September 22, 2011 9:01 AM EST

We all know that Diabetes is a metabolic condition wherein the person has high glucose levels, the body has difficulty utilizing insulin, or simply because the body just can’t produce adequate amounts of insulin. This disease can lead to several complications like heart attack, kidney failure, and erectile dysfunction, to name a few.

But on top of these complications, the Japanese researchers found out that Diabetes can also lead to Alzheimer’s disease and Dementia. Alzheimer’s disease is a condition associated with loss of cognitive ability and has something to do with abnormal protein and tissue accumulation in the cerebral cortex of the brain. This is the most common type of Dementia.

There were studies conducted to justify the link between Diabetes, the risk of Alzheimer’s disease, and Dementia however, there were no conclusive results revealed. This is exactly the reason why a group of Japanese investigators decided to do a thorough search for answers themselves.

The Japanese researchers have been conducting studies on heart diseases since 1961 in Hisayama. Then in the year 1988, a glucose tolerance test was done to more than 1,000 adult residents of Hisayama to observe the status of the glucose production of their bodies. After 15 years, the researchers, performed a follow up assessment and, found out that 232 of the 1000 participants had dementia.

Those who were diagnosed with Diabetes had a 74% risk of developing dementia compared to a person with normal glucose levels. Prediabetics or those who have abnormal glucose levels but not classified as a diabetic have a 35% tendency to develop dementia.

In the whole course of the study, researchers discovered that Alzheimer is the most common type of Dementia.

“Our findings emphasize the need to consider diabetes as potential risk factor for all-cause dementia,” the researchers said.

SMOKEY’S SOUTH CAROLINA

Obama Visits South-Carolina-Ravaged South Carolina

September 20, 2011 | ISSUE 47•38

COLUMBIA, SC—Calling the devastation “heartbreaking and appalling,” President Barack Obama toured South-Carolina-ravaged South Carolina Tuesday, vowing never to turn his back on the 4.6 million residents whose lives have been turned upside down by the horrors of South Carolina. “For decades, citizens from Columbia to Walterboro have suffered a kind of pain and anguish that most Americans could never fathom,” said Obama, who later led a silent prayer for the countless victims of the Southern state. “But I’m confident you will rebound. Maybe not in a month. Maybe not in a year. But South Carolina will one day emerge from the ashes of this South-Carolina-torn land.” Obama will reportedly be traveling to Charleston next, a city the president said has miraculously escaped the devastation of South Carolina.

DO YOU BELIEVE? (Oldie but Goodie)

The breakup of REM this week reminded me of an article I wrote in April 2009, at the height of the economic meltdown. I used REM lyrics in the article to help describe the fact that the government and Federal Reserve were fraudulently covering up that fact that our biggest banks were insolvent and bankrupt. Isn’t it fitting that two and a half years later our banking system is unraveling. I like to go back and test whether my reasoning was sound. Judge for yourself. Of course, if I recall correctly, the comment thread on TBP 1 turned into a 9/11 flamefest due to my opening line. What a surprise.

Hey Andy, did you hear about this one? Tell me, are you locked in the punch?
Hey Andy, are you goofing on Elvis? Hey baby, are we losing touch?
If you believed they put a man on the moon, man on the moon
If you believe there’s nothing up my sleeve, then nothing is cool

Man on the Moon – REM

The conspiracy theorists of the world believe the U.S. government faked the landing of Apollo 11 on the moon. They also believe 9/11 was an inside job, ordered by operatives within the government. The rationale of these acts was to distract the masses from the disastrous Vietnam War and the plummeting stock market, while escalating their control over the American people. I believe I have uncovered the largest conspiracy in history. The government wants you to believe that banks are recovering, housing has bottomed, stimulus works, borrowing leads to prosperity and war leads to peace. President Obama and his cronies at Treasury and the Federal Reserve are trying to mislead the public regarding the health of our banking system. If you believe their spin on these issues, I have a structurally deficient bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to sell you.

The government has something up its sleeve this time. They are perpetrating the greatest fraud in the history of the world. The conspirators are Barack Obama, Timothy Geithner and the Treasury Department, Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve, Sheila Bair and the FDIC, and Barney Frank and the Democratic Congress. They have colluded to commit taxpayer funds to enrich bankers that brought down the financial system, without getting Congressional approval. They have delayed foreclosures and have tried to artificially prop up the housing market. They have poured billions of stimulus pork into the states praying for some of it not to be wasted. They have confiscated billions in taxpayer funds, bestowed them on reckless banks and forced them to lend it to anyone with a pulse, again. The outrage from the public during the TARP confiscation made it crystal clear to courageous Congressmen they didn’t want to vote on something requiring fortitude and bravery again. They have outsourced their obligation to safeguard their citizens’ tax dollars to unelected bureaucrats at Treasury and the Federal Reserve. They have already sacrificed their obligation to declare war to the Presidential branch. What is the point of having a Congress?

Nothing Up Their Sleeve

 Hey Andy, did you hear about this one? Tell me, are you locked in the punch?
Hey Andy, are you goofing on Elvis? Hey baby, are we losing touch?
If you believed they put a man on the moon, man on the moon
If you believe there’s nothing up my sleeve, then nothing is cool

                                                            Man on the Moon – REM

Barack Obama and his henchmen in Treasury and the Federal Reserve have chosen to play for time, pretend the banking system is solvent, and hope that the average American doesn’t care. As long as the ATM still spits out $20 bills, everything is OK. The International Monetary Fund has estimated total credit write-downs of $4.1 trillion, with $2.7 trillion in U.S. institutions. McKinsey has concluded that there are still $2 trillion of toxic assets sitting on the books of U.S. banks. Nouriel Roubini, who has been correct from the beginning, estimates total losses on loans made by U.S. financial firms and the fall in the market value of the assets they are holding will reach $3.6 trillion ($1.6 trillion for loans and $2 trillion for securities). The U.S. banks and broker dealers are exposed to half of this figure, or $1.8 trillion; the rest is borne by other financial institutions in the US and abroad. With $2 trillion of write-offs to go, how could Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner make the following statement to a Congressional panel last week, “Currently, the vast majority of banks have more capital than they need to be considered well capitalized by their regulators.”? Is he lying or shading the truth? Does it matter?

Roubini’s estimate of $1.8 trillion more losses for U.S. banks will cause a slight problem for the U.S. banking system. The entire U.S. banking system has only $1.4 trillion of capital. Therefore, the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent. Mr. Geithner would contend that he was not lying. There are 8,500 banks in the United States. The top 19 banks control 45% of all the deposits in the country. These are the banks that are insolvent. Mom & Pop Bank in Louisville, Kentucky didn’t create toxic loan instruments that infected the worldwide economic system. The vast majority of the 8,500 banks in the country are in good shape. Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and the other “Too Big To Fail” banks destroyed the economic system. The Fed, Treasury, and FDIC are already backstopping or supplying 70% of the entire banking system balance sheet. It is time to allow the well run banks to take the deposits of the horribly run banks. The $1.8 billion of future losses do not include the commercial real estate losses, credit card losses and losses from the next wave of mortgage resets in 2010 that will wash over these banks.

Click to enlarge

Source: Tyler Durden – Zero Hedge

Of course we all know that the “Too Big To Fail” banks all reported profits better than expected in the last two weeks. CNBC said so. Let’s examine these tremendous profits.

Bank of America reported profits of $4.2 billion.

  • $1.9 billion came from the gain on sale of CCB shares.
  • $2.2 billion came from marking to market adjustments of Merrill Lynch notes.
  • Non-performing assets were $25.7 billion compared to $7.8 billion one year ago, a 329% increase in one year.

Without these convenient accounting adjustments, Bank of America would have lost money. Andrew Ross Sorkin pointed out in a recent NYT article:

With Goldman Sachs, the disappearing month of December didn’t quite disappear (it changed its reporting calendar, effectively erasing the impact of a $1.5 billion loss that month); JP Morgan Chase (JPM) reported a dazzling profit partly because the price of its bonds dropped (theoretically, they could retire them and buy them back at a cheaper price; that’s sort of like saying you’re richer because the value of your home has dropped); Citigroup pulled the same trick.

 

The first quarter bank profits were faked. They were manufactured as a public relations effort to convince the country that the big banks are in fine shape. If the banks are in such good shape why has the government had to use taxpayer funds to rollout the two dozen rescue plans listed below. And now we breathlessly await the results of the stress tests.

Click to Enlarge

Source: Tyler Durden – Zero Hedge

The FSP (Financial Stability Plan for those not in the know) rolled out by Tim Geithner was supposed to save our banking system. The plan was described by Treasury as:

Increased Transparency and Disclosure: Increased transparency will facilitate a more effective use of market discipline in financial markets. The Treasury Department will work with bank supervisors and the Securities and Exchange Commission and accounting standard setters in their efforts to improve public disclosure by banks. This effort will include measures to improve the disclosure of the exposures on bank balance sheets. In conducting these exercises, supervisors recognize the need not to adopt an overly conservative posture or take steps that could inappropriately constrain lending.

Coordinated, Accurate, and Realistic Assessment: All relevant financial regulators — the Federal Reserve, FDIC, OCC, and OTS — will work together in a coordinated way to bring more consistent, realistic and forward looking assessment of exposures on the balance sheet of financial institutions.

Forward Looking Assessment – Stress Test: A key component of the Capital Assistance Program is a forward looking comprehensive “stress test” that requires an assessment of whether major financial institutions have the capital necessary to continue lending and to absorb the potential losses that could result from a more severe decline in the economy than projected.

It is fascinating that in the first paragraph they specifically state they don’t want to be overly conservative. Which of the top 19 banks in the country have run their businesses in an overly conservative manner in the last ten years? Has the Federal Reserve been overly conservative in the last ten years? Have the SEC and FDIC been overly conservative in the last ten years? Have consumers, homebuilders, credit card companies and retailers been overly conservative for the last ten years? If there was ever a time to be overly conservative, it is now. It is also nice to know Treasury wants accuracy and better disclosure, but then twists the arm of the FASB to relax mark to market rules, so banks can continue to lie about the value of “assets” on their books. They allow Goldman Sachs (GS) to bury the fact that it left December out of its financial results deep in its footnotes. Shockingly, Goldman lost $1.5 billion in December. They continue to allow banks to report one time gains as part of ongoing operations, but billions in losses that are recorded quarter after quarter are not from ongoing operations. The morons on CNBC report whatever the banks say, no questions asked.

Stress Test Sham

This brings us to the stress tests for the 19 biggest banks in the land. The most stressful conditions are supposed to be 10% unemployment and a 20% further fall in home prices. That doesn’t sound too stressful to me. Considering the government reported figures are a manipulated lie, we already have unemployment between 15% and 20% in the real world. A 20% further decline in home prices is a given. The Case Shiller futures index forecasts that the New York Metro area will fall by 31% by the end of 2010. The massive overhang of housing inventory, the coming onslaught of mortgage resets in 2010, and the millions of foreclosures in the pipeline guarantee at least 20% further downside in housing prices. I have a feeling these 19 banks are going to need to study a little harder for their test. Professor Geithner is giving them an open book take home exam and gave them the answers. They will still flunk.


William Black is a former senior bank regulator. He is currently an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri. Mr. Black held a variety of senior regulatory positions during the S&L crisis. He managed investigations with teams of examiners reporting to him, redesigned how exams were conducted, and trained examiners. He calls the stress tests conducted on the 19 biggest banks in the country a complete sham. In his own words:

If you did a real stress test, as Geithner explained them, you wouldn’t just have a $2 trillion hole — you’d impose regulatory capital requirements of 50%. (FYI, the regulators have the power to set HIGHER individual capital requirements based on unusually large risks at a particular bank.)

You can’t conduct a meaningful stress test without reviewing (sampling) the underlying loan files and it seems likely that the purchasers of securitized instruments (not just mortgages) do not even have the loan file data. Moreover, loss ratios vary enormously depending on the issuer, so even a bank that originates (or has purchased a bank that originates) similar product cannot simply take its own loss rate and extrapolate it to the measure the risk on the value of securitized credit instruments.

It is vastly more difficult to examine a bank that is engaged in accounting control fraud. You can’t rely on the bank’s books and records. It doesn’t simply take more, far more, FTEs — it takes examiners with experience, care, courage, and investigative instincts and abilities. Very few folks earning $60K are willing to get in the face of the CEO and CFO making $25 million annually and tell them that they are running a fraudulent bank and they are liars. FYI, this is one of the reasons, why having “resident examiners” never works. The examiners don’t even get to marry the natives. They get to worship God’s anointed. Effective examination is good for you, but it is very unpleasant, ala a doctor’s finger up your rectum. It requires total independence. So, the examination force doesn’t have remotely the numbers or the relevant experience and mindset to examine the largest banks with the greatest problems.

Examiners certainly can’t do the stress testing that Geithner describes or evaluate the reliability of a large bank’s proprietary stress test. If they were serious about constructing reliable stress tests, which they aren’t, you’d require their analytics to be made public. You’d have the industry fund independent investigations by rocket scientists chosen by a committee selected by the regulators of the soundness of the analytics. You’d also have the industry fund competitions to rip them apart (a bit like we hire legit hackers to test security by trying to defeat it) and show where they produce absurd results. The geeks would have a field day (that would probably last a decade). There are probably zero examiners that have the modeling skills required to evaluate the most sophisticated stress test models. The concept that there are 100 examiners with these skills, suddenly freed up from all other duties, assigned to CONDUCT stress tests is a lie.

On Monday we will see how much transparency and disclosure the Treasury and Federal Reserve will provide regarding the not so stressful tests. Obama’s minions have been hinting that six banks have failed. Sheila Bair stated that the $110 billion left in the TARP kitty should be enough to cover the capital shortfalls. This is a lie. As we saw previously, the U.S. banking system will need close to $1 trillion more capital to stay viable. If the Federal Reserve was so keen on disclosure and transparency, why haven’t they released the names of the banks that have borrowed from them, and the collateral provided for the loans? Because the Fed has taken worthless toxic paper onto their books and loaned newly printed dollars against the worthless paper. The taxpayers are on the hook.

Fraudulent Fed

Ben Bernanke has a number of obligations as head of the Federal Reserve. Among his mandates are:

To strike a balance between private interests of banks and the centralized responsibility of government

  • To supervise and regulate banking institutions
  • To protect the credit rights of consumers

To manage the nation’s money supply through monetary policy to achieve:

  • maximum employment
  • stable prices, including prevention of either inflation or deflation

To maintain the stability of the financial system and contain systematic risk in financial markets

Let’s assess how Helicopter Ben Bernanke and Mad Dog Alan Greenspan have fulfilled their mandates. They were supposed to supervise and regulate banking institutions. They apparently slipped up slightly on this mandate. It appears that letting banks regulate themselves was a slight miscalculation on Mr. Greenspan’s part. The man who never saw a bubble in his life had this to say:

The presumption that you could incrementally defuse a bubble was a fantasy. Clearly, you cannot defuse these things, unless you hit them right on the head and break the economy. Essentially, break the potential profitability that is engendering that sort of stuff. We could have basically clamped down on the American economy, generated a 10 percent unemployment rate. And I will guarantee we would not have had a housing boom, stock market boom or indeed a particularly good economy either. 

 

So, Greenspan stepped aside as banks sold adjustable rate negative amortization loans to subprime borrowers with no proof of income or assets required. The job of an independent responsible Central Banker is to take the punch bowl away before the party gets out of hand. The politically connected fawning Greenspan chose to spike the punch bowl with 1% interest rates and exhorting the party goers to take out adjustable rate mortgages. Free market capitalism with no rules was the path to prosperity in his mind. The Greenspan Put was in place. Party like it was 1999 and he’d clean up afterwards. Instead, the American taxpayer is stuck with the bill and Greenspan gets $100,000 per self serving speech.

Mr. Greenspan made his biggest mark with his hands off attitude regarding derivatives. His quote from May 2005 will get him into the Federal Reserve Hall of Fame:

The use of a growing array of derivatives and the related application of more-sophisticated approaches to measuring and managing risk are key factors underpinning the greater resilience of our largest financial institutions …. Derivatives have permitted the unbundling of financial risks.

 

Would you pay this dude $100,000 for his words of wisdom? Didn’t this man have hundreds of PhDs gathering wads of information about the practices of our biggest financial institutions? He was either the most incompetent Federal Reserve Chairman in history, or he was in the back pocket of the banking cartel. Take your choice. The major banks became gambling casinos run by multi-millionaire MBAs, tooling around in their private jets, using derivatives as the chips in their trillion dollar game of craps. When these Masters of the Universe MBAs rolled snake eyes, the world wide financial system collapsed. Mandate #1 was not a success story.

Mandate #2 was to protect the credit rights of consumers. Considering Americans have lost $10 trillion of net worth in the last 18 months due to the Federal Reserve mismanaging interest rates, failing to properly regulate banks, and allowing mortgage brokers to mislead millions of immigrants into mortgages they didn’t comprehend, it appears they may have failed on mandate #2. Now, Ben Bernanke has lowered interest rates to 0% in an attempt to enrich the major banks at the expense of senior citizens living on a fixed income. Investors who were receiving 5% on their money market deposits in 2007 are now receiving less than 0.5%. Ben would prefer that 85-year-old grandmothers invest in high yield bonds. He is systematically stealing from the poor to give to the rich.

Mandate #3 regarding maximum employment doesn’t seem to be working out too well either. The government massaged numbers show unemployment at 8.5%, the highest rate since 1983. Unemployment will easily reach 10% during 2009 and may reach the highest levels since the Great Depression. It appears the Federal Reserve misunderstood their mandate and is working towards minimizing employment as less than 60% of working age population is employed today. By reducing interest rates to generational lows, the Federal Reserve created the boom that led to the bust. Their interest rate manipulations have led to 13 million Americans being unemployed today, an increase of 6 million in less than two years.

Mandate #4 of stable prices with prevention of inflation and deflation has been somewhat of a challenge for geniuses at the Federal Reserve. Using the non-manipulated consumer price index, inflation has consistently run above 8% since the 1980s, peaking above 12% in 2008. By falsifying the calculations, Ben Bernanke is able to leave interest rates at 0%. The government reported figures show no inflation. By manipulating the CPI, the government is able to pay senior citizens 1%, while their costs for food and energy go up 6%. It is good to see the Federal Reserve is looking out for the most susceptible in society.


Lastly, the Federal Reserve was supposed to maintain stability in the financial markets. The last 18 months have been the most unstable period for financial markets in history. The Federal Reserve allowed at least a dozen financial institutions to become too big to fail. By coming to the rescue of the financial markets every time something bad happened starting with LTCM, the Federal Reserve encouraged excessive risk taking by financial firms. These institutions knew the Federal Reserve would clean up their messes. They were right.

 

With a perfect record in the mandates they were asked to fulfill, you can see why we would want to give the Federal Reserve more power and more mandates. Paul Volcker, the only decent Federal Reserve Chairman in history, thinks otherwise:

The Federal Reserve is going beyond the traditional role of central banks here or abroad. At some point it’s reasonable to ask should this particular institution, with its independence very well protected, be allocating so much of what is essentially government money. The inflation problem, which should be a real threat for the future, is not right on the doorstep. But two or three years from now that may be the critical problem, how that’s handled. Because, given what the Federal Reserve has been doing, it’s going to be harder to retrace their steps, so to speak, than it ordinarily would be.

 

Goofing on Elvis, Are We Losing Touch?

 

The stock market has been soaring as banks report fraudulent earnings. These banks are purposely underestimating future losses to make current earnings appear better than they really are. Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke demanded that Ken Lewis commit fraud by not revealing material information to the public about Merrill Lynch. Why are they not being prosecuted? Bankers protect the members of their bankers club. Dr. John Hussman describes how it works in today’s world:

That’s what these bureaucrats want during their stint in government service, that’s how they advise our elected officials, and then their revolving door takes them right back to Wall Street. This thing is run by investment bankers and corporate bondholders for the benefit of investment bankers and corporate bondholders.

 

The government is desperately attempting to convince the world that the banking system is sound and recovery is under way. The actions they have taken have not and will not fix the system. The waves have washed away the foundations of sand propping up the U.S. financial system. Instead of learning from their mistakes, officials have decided to rebuild on a new foundation of sand. We are borrowing from foreigners to bailout bankers and handing the bill to future generations. With government dictating the future of our banking system we can count on massive fraud, waste and mismanagement. Dr. Hussman’s frustration is well founded:

It’s frustrating, but we are wasting trillions of dollars that could bring enormous relief of suffering, knowledge, productivity, and innovation in order to defend bondholders of mismanaged financials, and nobody cares because hey, at least the stock market is rallying. If one thing is clear from the last decade, it is that investors have no concern about the ultimate cost of the wreckage as long as they can get a rally going over the short run.

This public relations effort will fail. There are hundreds of billions of losses left to be recorded by our big bad banks. If you believe this is almost over, you are not paying attention.

THE OLD MAN AND THE SEA: OP-ED VERSION

When I arrived at work today I left the parking garage and headed into the main building and proceeded to put Ron Paul position flyers next to every student computer and on every table in the building. I don’t know if they will be disregarded or tossed in the trash can. But maybe they will influence a few students to support Ron Paul and maybe they’ll influence a few other students, and so on. My article about Ron Paul has gotten pretty good circulation on the internet, with even Lew Rockwell picking it up this morning.

But many people still get their information from mainstream media newspapers. The only way to get an Op-Ed into a newspaper is emailing a Word version to an editor or publisher. I’ve found that anything over 1,000 words will not be published. My article was 4,300 words. I’ve hacked it down to 966 words. I think it is still powerful and makes a good case for supporting Ron Paul.

If you want to do your part to get Ron Paul elected, copy and paste the article below into Word and send it to the editor of your local paper. You don’t have to attribute the Op-Ed to me. Put it under your own name if that is what it takes to get it printed. Send this link to other Ron Paul supporters and ask them to do the same thing. We can reach millions of people if everyone does their part and it won’t cost a penny to do so. If you want me to email you a Word version, just let me know.

It’s time to be counted. It’s how you live your life that matters.

THE OLD MAN AND THE SEA – 2011

The Old Man and the Sea is a novel written by Ernest Hemingway about Santiago, an old fisherman whose life is approaching its conclusion, and his final heroic struggle against a great marlin and the evil sharks that ultimately devour his prize. Sadness, resignation and the inevitability of death permeate the pages of this brilliant novel. But it is grace under pressure in the face of overwhelming odds that is the true message Hemingway leaves with the reader. There is no avoiding death, but the critical test of mankind is how you live your life and how you endure the suffering and pain that are inflicted upon you.

Life is a journey. At the end of every worldly journey, death awaits. That is a certainty. The ending will be the same for everyone who walks this earth. What matters is the course chosen on the voyage through life. The vast sea represents life’s journey, with its ebbs, flows, and storms that must be navigated. In Hemingway’s portrait of the world, death is inevitable, but the finest men will nonetheless refuse to give in to its power.  In both the sea and in life, there are a number of possibilities that lie hidden from the common eye; some are gifts to be treasured and some are problems to be defeated. Neither will be found unless man embarks upon the journey. If man is lucky enough to discover a treasure he must fight until death to retain it; if man is unlucky enough to discover an evil lurking underneath the surface of the sea, he must fight it bravely and nobly until the end. In either case, it is the struggle that is all- important, and a man obtains the status of hero if he battles the sea (life) with grace under pressure. The only way to obtain the status of hero is to set sail on the uncertain sea of life.

Ron Paul’s years in Washington have been a never ending struggle against corruption, the military industrial complex, and Federal Reserve currency manipulators. He has been a lone fisherman fighting for truth and liberty for over three decades. Ron Paul has endured scorn and derision, much like Santiago endured from the other fishermen after going eighty four days without a catch. He has always stayed focused on the vital issues that have led to the relentless decline of the American Empire: liberty versus security, freedom versus government control, and sound money versus persistent Federal Reserve created inflation. He has fought forces within his own party and in the opposition party. Despite fighting this battle alone for decades and being bloodied and battered, he has never given up the fight.

Ron Paul has a clear vision of the America our forefathers imagined. It is a vision of a people free from government control of every aspect of their lives. It’s a vision where the people keep what they earn and don’t pay half to government to be redistributed based upon a politician’s re-election aspirations. It’s a vision where the people are free to make their own choices and free to succeed or fail based on their own merits. It’s a vision where a truly free market exists and private bankers do not control and manipulate the currency. It’s a vision that calls for a strong national defense, not being the policeman to the world. It’s a vision where we follow the U.S. Constitution and the rule of law. It’s a vision where a limited government ensures the liberties and freedoms of the population. It’s a vision that calls for balanced budgets, sound money, and citizens and corporations accepting the consequences of their actions.

Ron Paul’s goodness, patience and humility always shines through, along with his knowledge, diligence and charitable nature. The ideologues on the left wing and the right wing that dominate the dialogue in the mainstream media despise Dr. Paul and his message. They attempt to denigrate and humiliate him through their propaganda machines by twisting his words and misrepresenting his positions. They fear his message of individual responsibility and peaceful interaction with all nations. Those in power want to control our lives and force American values upon other nations. If Dr. Paul’s ideas were to take root with the American people, the era of corporate fascist big government would be over. The welfare – warfare state would begin to wither away.

All of the symbols employed by Hemingway add to premise that life is an endless struggle with illusory rewards. In order to achieve nobility in life, a person must exhibit bravery, poise, courage, patience, optimism, and intelligence during the struggle. Then, even if the prize is lost, the person has won the battle, proving himself capable of retaining grace under pressure, the ultimate test of mankind. Ron Paul’s life is a shining example of grace under pressure. He has single handedly battled his great fish (Big Government, Big Finance, Big Military) for four decades with no helpers and many detractors. His journey is nearing its end. But it isn’t how it ends that matters. The journey is what separates the noble lion (Ron Paul) from the hyenas (corrupt politicians) and jackals (media). Ron’s message will not die. His son will carry the torch. The young people who have been inspired by his words and example will carry the torch. All of our lives will end the same way. The lesson to be learned from Ron Paul is how we should live our lives.

The ideologically myopic pundits that pass for the intelligentsia in the mainstream media scornfully declare that Ron Paul has no chance of winning, when all critical thinking citizens recognize that he has already won. They can destroy him, but he will not be defeated.