blow off top – The Burning Platform

Tesla closed on Friday at $1,545. By 10:00 am this morning it hit $1,795, up 16% on no news. It ended the day at $1,497, down 17% from its high. I believe they call this a blow off top. The Nasdaq 100 followed suit. Following its blow off top on March 7, 2000, it proceeded to fall 80%. Is history about to rhyme?

The Nasdaq 100 rallied more than 2% intraday to set an all-time high, then reversed to close down by more than 1%.

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It's done that twice. Today was one.

March 7, 2000 was the other. pic.twitter.com/zEJoOrf6JZ

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) July 13, 2020

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Guest Post by Sven Henrich

None of us can know where markets would be trading without the Fed’s constant massive liquidity injections, but now that the bubble recognition has gone mainstream (Bloomberg, FT) and acknowledged by at least one Fed president (Kaplan) I think it’s fair to say: Lower, much lower.

But while investors continue to dance on the liquidity driven momentum rally right into major resistance currently ignored data keeps suggesting that risk is much higher than anyone is willing to acknowledge. Indeed these data points suggest investors may be walking a precarious tight rope without even realizing it.

I do my best to keep pointing out these data points, but so far admittedly in vain:

It sucks being the only sober guy in a bar full of drunks. That is until they barf all over themselves.

— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) January 13, 2020

Since the Fed is currently hosting the most expensive frat party of all time it’s no wonder that investors are currently ignoring everything else consequences be damned.

Continue reading “The Tight Rope Market”