2019 FROM A FOURTH TURNING PERSPECTIVE

“An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

Image result for budget impasse trump schumer

Strauss and Howe wrote their book in 1996. They were not trying to be prophets of doom, but observers of history able to connect events through human life cycles of 80 or so years. Using critical thinking skills and identifying the most likely triggers for crisis: debt, civic decay, and global disorder, they were able to anticipate scenarios which could drive the next crisis, which they warned would arrive in the mid-2000 decade. The scenario described above is fairly close to the current situation, driven by the showdown between Trump and the Democrats regarding the border wall.

It has not reached the stage where all hell breaks loose, but if it extends until the end of January and food stamp money is not distributed to 40 million people (mostly in urban ghettos) all bets are off. The likelihood of this scenario is small, but there are numerous potential triggers which could still make 2019 go down in history as a year to remember.

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Is Russia Learning?

Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts

Is Russia learning that Washington wants no deal with Russia except Russian vassalage and that relying on agreements with the West is delusional? There is some indication that Russia is learning, but it seems to be a slow process.

Russia Insider reports that the Russian government has told Israel that Israeli strikes inside Syria are no longer acceptable. https://russia-insider.com/en/russia-greenlights-retaliatory-syrian-attacks-israeli-targets-report/ri25684

Russia Insider also reports that when asked about Kiev using Russian focus on the World Cup to attack the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, Putin answered: “if that does transpire, there will be harsh consequences for Ukraine’s sovereignty in general.” https://russia-insider.com/en/politics/what-if-kiev-attacks-during-world-cup-putin-theyll-rue-day-video/ri23722

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Putin’s Hesitation Has Lost Syria’s Idlib Province

Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts

The provocations that Putin invites are now escalating. Peter Ford, former British ambassador to Syria, points out that Washington has quickly taken advantage of Putin’s hesitancy in Syria to escalate the pretexts on which Washington will launch a military attack on the Syrian forces. Formerly Washington’s pretext was to be a false flag “chemical attack” that would be blamed on Syria. Washington’s new pretext precludes the liberation of Idlib as Washington has declared that any attempted liberation of the province from Washington’s terrorist allies will result in a US military attack on Syria. Indeed, even a refugee flow whether or not caused by a Syrian attack is deemed to be a “humanitarian issue” that justifies a US military attack on Syria. President Trump’s Special Envoy for Syria, James Jeffrey, just announced that the United States will not tolerate an attack, period. https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/09/19/idlib-lull-before-hurricane.html

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Decoding Putin’s Response to Attack in Syria

Guest Post by Tom Luongo

The fog of war and geopolitics makes initial responses to the attack on Russian and Syrian forces recently difficult to assess.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response seemed timid and was at odds with statements from his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and more recent statements from Russia’s Foreign Ministry.

Putin backed off on explicitly blaming Israel for the downing of the IL-20 ELINT aircraft which killed 15 Russian servicemen, but made it clear he holds them responsible for the attack as a whole.

My thoughts on what the goals of the attack were are the focus of my latest article at Strategic Culture Foundation.  

It was obvious to me that this attack was designed as a provocation to start World War III in Syria and blame the Russians for attacking a NATO member without proper cause, since the Syrian air defense forces were the ones responsible for shooting down the plane.

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Can Russia Survive Her “Partnerships”? Has Putin Made A Strategic Miscalculation?

Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts

In an act of intentional deception, Israel used a Russian airplane to cloak an Israeli attack on a Syrian ground position, with the consequence that Syrian air defense missiles downed the Russian airplane with the lost of 15 Russian military lives.

In the words of the Russian Ministry of Defense: “The Israeli pilots used the Russian plane as cover and set it up to be targeted by the Syrian air defense forces. As a consequence, the Il-20, which has radar cross-section much larger than the [Israeli] F-16, was shot down by an S-200 system missile.” Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said: “The blame for the downing of the Russian plane and the deaths of its crew members lies squarely on the Israeli side. The actions of the Israeli military were not in keeping with the spirit of the Russian-Israeli partnership, so we reserve the right to respond.” https://russia-insider.com/en/russian-military-says-holds-israel-responsible-deaths-15-servicemen-reserves-right-respond/ri24780 See also: http://tass.com/defense/1022123

For a few minutes it looked like Israel was finally to be held accountable for its reckless and irresponsible actions, but it was not to be. Russian President Putin contradicted his Defense Minister by declaring the loss of Russian lives to be “accidental,” a result of a “chain of tragic circumstances.”

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Israel Provocation Kills Russian Soldiers; Moscow Will Take Political Revenge

Guest Post by Moon of Alabama

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Yesterday Turkey and Russia agreed on a further de-escalation in Idelb province in Syria (see the update here). This agreement takes away the chance of an imminent wider war in which the US and some of its allies would use a fake ‘chemical attack’ as a pretext to launch missiles against a large number of Syrian government targets and military positions.

A peaceful solution of the Idleb situation is unsatisfying for Israel. The successful Syrian defeat of the Jihadi enemy inside the country would allow Syria and its allies to concentrate their forces against Israel. Israel wants the Syrian government destroyed and the country in chaos.

On Sunday September 16 Israel tried to hit an Iranian Boeing 747 freight plane at Damascus airport. The plane allegedly carried an Iranian copy of the Russian S-300 long range air defense System for the Syrian army.

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Moscow Accuses Israel Of Using Downed Russian Jet As “Cover” During Syrian Attack

Via ZeroHedge

As more information about the downing overnight of a Russian reconnaissance plane by aging Syrian antiaircraft weapon becomes available, the Russian Defense Ministry has issued a shocking claim that will undoubtedly ratchet up tensions between Russia and Israel. While Russia had previously blamed Israel for the downing of the plane, which resulted in the deaths of 15 Russian servicemen, the MoD is now saying that Israel intended to use the Russian plane as “cover” during the attack.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.09.18russia.JPG?itok=YD1tHZBY

According to the Russian military, the plane was shot down while responding to an attack by four Israeli F-16s on Syrian government positions in the coastal town of Lattakia. The attack was the latest of some 200 attacks launched by the Israelis over the past 18 months with the stated aim of preventing Iran from expanding its foothold in war-torn Syria.

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Grand Bargain Update: As Stakes Rise in Syria So Does the Fake News

Guest Post by Tom Luongo

The hardest part of this job is the predictability of it.  Syria’s ‘civil war’ is nearly over.  As forces gather to begin ridding Idlib province of Al-Qaeda and other ‘rebel’ factions, the posturing and rhetoric become more overblown.

Israel and the U.S. need to make a show of force here to prove to the world they are still in some measure of control over Syria’s fate.  That manifests itself as threats from senior U.S. officials, like Crazy John Bolton, to President Bashar al-Assad to not use chemical weapons again.

The Russians pre-empted this narrative by imploring the U.S. to simply stay out of the way in Idlib and the problem of Al-Qaeda in Syria will be over soon.  It worked well in Dara’a just a few weeks ago.

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They Knew Too Much

Via Oriental Review,

The countries of the West used Israel to evacuate members of the White Helmets from southern Syria.  They couldn’t be allowed to fall into the hands of the Syrian government  – at least, not while they are still alive.

Essential human-rights defenders

Damascus is almost finished liberating southwestern Syria. The military’s Operation Basalt was extremely successful, allowing them to regain control of the occupied provinces of Quneitra and Daraa(at present the Syrian army has only a small chunk of land left to liberate from the jihadists).  Many of the local gangs simply surrendered. Those militants who wanted to remain underwent a procedure of reconciliation with the authorities, while the others were put onto green buses and sent to Idlib.

However, those militants included some very valuable specimens — members of the “Syrian civil defense”, or, as they are more simply known, “the ​​White Helmets.”

If they were taken prisoner, that would be a serious problem for the US and its allies, since the members of that organization might have a lot to say once they were in front of the cameras. And the damage caused by their statements would be far worse than the fallout over the admissions made by Hassan Diab — the boy the “helmets” named as a victim of a chemical attack in Douma, who admitted that the attack had been staged for the photographers. And it would be so much worse, simply because the White Helmets — or at least their leaders — knew so much more.

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Clearly Israel is Evil but is Yahweh Evil too?

The God of Israel Is a Bloodthirsty, Vindictive Sociopath – Does This Explain the Misanthropy of the Jews?

‘“The finest trick of the devil, Charles Baudelaire wrote, is to persuade you that he does not exist”. Perhaps he was mistaken. His finest trick, I believe, is to convince the world that he is God.’

Laurent Guyénot Sun, Jul 22, 2018 |

Introduction

This article follows and concludes a series of four articles I wrote recently for the Saker blog. In the first one, “How Biblical is Zionism?” (reproduced under a different title on Russia Insider), I wrote: “When Israeli leaders claim that their vision of the global future is based on the (Hebrew) Bible, we should take them seriously and study the (Hebrew) Bible.” In the second one, “How Zionist is the New Word Order?

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Israel Shoots Down Syrian Fighter Jet

Via Zero Hedge

Israel has shot down a Syrian fighter jet that penetrated Israeli airspace on Tuesday, the Israeli army said.  According to the IDF spokesperson, the Russian-made Sukhoi was under surveillance when it entered some two kilometers into Israeli airspace and was shot down by two Patriot missiles.

Earlier, Israel’s missile defense systems were activated as sirens went off in Israeli communities across the Golan Heights, near the Syria border Haaretz reported.

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Despite US and Israeli Objections, Russia and Iran Remain Committed to Fighting Terrorism in the Levant

Ahead of Helsinki Russian diplomats are repeating loudly that Iran is in Syria legally

The Finnish capital of Helsinki will host a summit July 16 between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Amid preparations for the meeting, speculation has been raised about the topics that may be discussed by the two presidents. Although the formal agenda has yet to be announced, one thing is certain: The Syrian crisis and prospects for engagement between Moscow and Washington on the war-torn country will likely form a great part of what Putin and Trump will discuss — and possibly agree upon.

Telling the Truth Is More Expensive than a Ferrari

Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts

For the last 3 or 4 years I have been invited to speak at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in Russia. I have never accepted, not from lack of interest or lack of something to say, but because the demonization of Russia has curtailed my freedom to travel and to speak. Unless I pay my own travel expenses, I would be accused of being compromised by an expense-paid trip. This never happens to US senators and representatives who accept all expenses paid trips to Israel, but Russia is different. Moreover, even if I were to pay my own expenses, as Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein did when she attended the 10th anniversary celebration of RT in Moscow, I would still be accused. Jill Stein was summoned before the Russiagate “investigation” to account for her attendance.

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The Racists Among US

How to tell when defending Israel is actually racist

 on  39 Comments

 

Those empathetic to Palestinians toil in unhappy corners of the internet, fending off trolls eager to dazzle with age-old vitriol.  But decorated professionals recite the same discourses throughout corporate media, the veneer of respectability making them even more grotesque. Anti-Arab racism underlies defense of Israel. The racism isn’t marginal, either; it’s the lingua franca of American punditry.

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One is Truth, the Other Fiction

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcyLRTB9fRY

Palestinian medic, 21, is killed by Israeli sniper as she tends wounded in Gaza

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Today’s news from Gaza was especially disturbing. Israeli snipers shot 40 protesters and killed one of them: Razan al-Najjar, a 21-year-old volunteer medic. She was wearing a white coat when she was shot, news accounts say, and one report says she was attempting to tend a wounded protester.

Update: Her funeral was Saturday June 2, and thousands attended.

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