Another American foreign interventionist success story. I think John McCain should do a photo op in Libya to show our continued support for whoever the fuck is running that civil war racked country.
One month ago today, President Obama was congratulating Libya on a “milestone” election — even though the disintegration of the country after the 2011 US invasion was ongoing.
Said Obama in June:
I congratulate the Libyan people on the conclusion of the elections for a new Council of Representatives, a milestone in their courageous efforts to transition from four decades of dictatorship toward a full democracy.
Today, the US announced it has evacuated all US personnel from Libya. They piled into vehicles and escaped to Tunisia.
The only thing left behind was the hollow words of hollow State Department Spokeswoman Marie Harf:
Due to the ongoing violence resulting from clashes between Libyan militias in the immediate vicinity of the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli, we have temporarily relocated all of our personnel out of Libya.. …We reiterate that Libyans must immediately cease hostilities and begin negotiations to resolve their grievances.
Nothing better demonstrates the enormous disconnect between Washington’s rhetoric and actual reality than this, an emergency evacuation of the entire US diplomatic and military presence in Libya just weeks after a “milestone” election and just over three years after a US/NATO attack that was to bring democracy and prosperity to the country.
As the US and NATO attacked Libya in March, 2011, President Obama addressed the American people to explain his decision to attack.
Gaddafi was killing his own people, Obama claimed. That was a lie. He was fighting the very insurgents whose ongoing violence has forced the United States to flee the country.
US intervention would stop the violence, Obama claimed. That was a lie.
“Qaddafi has not yet stepped down from power, and until he does, Libya will remain dangerous,” said Obama.
But Gaddafi was forced from power — sodomized and murdered by US allies in Libya. The country is more dangerous than ever. The US has been forced to evacuate.
Obama claimed that the US/NATO invasion would end the violence in Libya:
[W]e were faced with the prospect of violence on a horrific scale. We had a unique ability to stop that violence: an international mandate for action, a broad coalition prepared to join us, the support of Arab countries, and a plea for help from the Libyan people themselves.
America was exceptional, claimed Obama in his 2011 speech. That is why we had to invade Libya:
To brush aside America’s responsibility as a leader and -– more profoundly -– our responsibilities to our fellow human beings under such circumstances would have been a betrayal of who we are. Some nations may be able to turn a blind eye to atrocities in other countries. The United States of America is different.
Libya was supposed to be the next “domino” in the fantasy of an “Arab Spring” pushed so hard by the US administration and its compliant media. Instead, Egypt is ruled by a US-backed dictator who overthrew an elected government and Libya is a completely destroyed no-go zone.
Reality caught up with Obama and the murderous rhetoric of the interventionists and neocons.
Moscow is next on their target list. Those in the US who push back against the lies designed to provoke a war with Russia are called “Putin’s best friend” and “Russian agents.” Just like they were called “Saddam’s best friend” and “Iraqi agents” just like they were called “Gaddafi’s best friend” and “Libyan agents.” The lies are the same, the results are always a disaster.
Will Americans notice what failures their leaders are? Will Americans demand an end to the disastrous interventions?
Let this sink in: three years after the US invasion of Libya that would “free” the country, the US has been forced to have a Saigon moment.
Another American foreign diplomacy success story. Right?
Libya is considering a deployment of international force to re-establish security amid a flare-up of violence in Tripoli which saw dozens of rockets destroy most of the civilian aircraft fleet at its international airport. READ MORE: http://on.rt.com/mno9f7
“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability –problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997
This past week saw an event revealing the cluelessness and ignorance of the linear thinking establishment. They are oblivious to the cyclicality of history and unaware of their precarious situation, as the mood of the country and the world portends their demise. Eric Cantor, the ultimate establishment neo-con Republican House Majority Leader, was crushed in a primary by a completely unknown economics professor, outspent by Cantor $4.9 million to $123,000. Cantor spent more at steakhouses than David Brat spent on his entire campaign. Cantor, a lackey for Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, Israel, and dozens of other mega-corporations, was the first House Majority leader defeated in a primary since the position was created in the 1890s. He won his last primary by 60%.
This was as big a shock to the Republican establishment as it was to the Democratic establishment, the mainstream corporate media establishment, and the Tea Party establishment that didn’t provide David Brat one red cent of their vast horde of contributions. They are now scrambling to generate a storyline explaining this unexplainable development as if it was entirely predictable. These wealthy, myopic, propaganda peddling, purveyors of the status quo just felt the foundation of their world shudder beneath them. Like a volcano, with pressure building within, the world as we know it is about to blow. Who gets devastated by the massive explosion and flow of molten lava is yet to be determined, but there is nothing the establishment can do to stop the eruption. This entire Deep State hierarchy has been developed over decades, as they have flawlessly implemented Edward Bernays teachings from the Propaganda playbook.
“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. …In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.” – Edward Bernays – Propaganda – 1928
The linear thinkers, who constitute the invisible government and unelected true ruling power, are flabbergasted their game plan, which has worked for the last seven decades, is failing to have the usual sway over the normally compliant masses. Lies, misinformation, deception, propaganda, easy debt, cheap oil, endless commercial expansion, relentless marketing, never ending war, politicians selected by bankers and mega-corporations, tax code created to benefit the .01%, and laws written by the lobbyists for the oligarchs designed to control the plebs and enrich the modern aristocracy, made the world go round until 2008. Linear thinkers in government, business, banking and media have been perpetuating the falsehood of a return to normalcy, recovery, and linear progress. They are willfully ignorant of history because acknowledging its cyclicality would be admitting how precarious their positions of power, wealth, and control truly are.
History does not proceed in a straight line of forward advancement. It has a seasonal nature geared to the 80 year life cycle of human beings. The most basic lesson of history is we never seem to learn the lessons of history. A period of Crisis arrives like Winter, approximately 60 years after the resolution of the prior Crisis, with a climax occurring approximately 80 years after the prior Crisis climax. The generational dynamics based upon human life cycles have lined up once again into Crisis mode. Anyone who hasn’t sensed the mood change in the country since 2008, hasn’t been paying attention. The linear thinking establishment refuses to accept the inevitability of their existing paradigm collapsing in a chaotic whirlwind of violence, death on a grand scale and decisive war. The existing social order is always swept away during a Fourth Turning.
Saeculum
(climax year) Crisis (Full Era)
Time from one Crisis climax to next Crisis climax
Revolutionary
(1781) American Revolution(1773–1794)
Civil War
(1863) Civil War(1860–1865)
82 years
Great Power
(1944) Great Depressionand World War II(1929-1946)
81 years
Millennial
(2025?) Global Financial Crisis(2008–2029?)
81 years?
The Global Financial Crisis, which began in September 2008, marked the beginning of a likely two decade long episode of fierce winter-like blizzard conditions that will get progressively worse as this Fourth Turning churns toward its bloody climax. The evil wealthy men and their paid off pawns in politics and the media who constitute the invisible government, governing behind the scenes, molding minds, forming tastes and suggesting ideas to the gullible masses, will not relinquish their wealth and power without a fight. They have been utilizing all emergency monetary and fiscal levers, while conducting a data disinformation campaign and utilizing their control of the dying legacy media to keep the masses distracted, entertained and confused.
The establishment has convinced a vast swath of the public to actually believe 0% interest rates for the last 5 years, adding $1 trillion per year to the already Himalayan national debt, allowing the Federal Reserve buy $3 trillion of toxic debt from their Wall Street banking cabal owners, while creating a high rate of inflation in energy, food, healthcare and tuition costs, and negative growth in real wages, is somehow beneficial to them and reflects a return to normalcy. The current state of our economic, financial, political and judicial systems, along with the fraying social fabric of society reflects EXTREME dysfunction and in no way exhibits anything resembling a normal state of affairs. The government apparatchiks, corporate media talking heads, Wall Street captured economists, and lackeys for billionaire oligarchs are highly paid liars using every Bernaysian trick to manipulate the beliefs, desires, and prejudices of the willfully ignorant masses. They capitalize on the cognitive dissonance and normalcy bias being practiced by the majority of people in the country. Like a dog chasing its tail, they have the public up in arms about meaningless social issues and ignoring the looting of the country by sociopathic bankers.
Those in power need to sell their storyline of advancement, despite the overwhelming evidence of a societal implosion and economic regression for the 99.99%. They need to distract the masses with inconsequential emotional issues like gay marriage, mass murderers, climate change, party politics, racism, and phantom terror threats, so the masses don’t focus on how badly they are being screwed by the One Party invisible government. For those who have been too dumbed down by our government public education system to even comprehend anything beyond a third grade level, we have The Kardashians, Bridezilla, Duck Dynasty, I Didn’t Know I Was Pregnant, iGadgets, Twitter, Facebook, professional sports, Hollywood blockbusters, and toxic fast food paid for with your EBT card. Our world is besieged by triviality, plagued by idiocy, inundated with propaganda, and consumed with consumption.
In a country of 318 million people, the few believe they must mold the minds of the masses in order for society to function smoothly. Of course this is a huge lie. They need to mold those minds in order to retain their power, wealth, control. They are focused on the daily dose of lies, mistruths, disinformation, and distractions required to keep the masses anesthetized. They have ignored the lessons of history and the big picture driving the Crisis events which will change the world over the next fifteen years. Fourth Turnings don’t calm down, fizzle out, or revert to what happened in the prior twenty years, just as the unyielding harsh Winter cannot revert to the glorious days of Fall or the sweltering days of Summer. There is no escaping the dire, deadly and dangerous times directly ahead of us.
“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe– The Fourth Turning
Strauss and Howe wrote their epic historical treatise in 1997 and their predictions, based upon centuries of generational analysis, have been uncannily accurate. The predictions are not event based, but based upon generational mood and core elements of Crisis, which were predictable over a decade before the 2008 start to this Crisis. The core elements of Debt, Civic Decay, and Global Disorder were evident to anyone with a functioning critical thinking brain, not in the employ of the establishment. These core elements are front and center today, as the Fourth Turning gains momentum like a gathering winter storm. The captured mainstream media does their utmost to obscure, downplay, and ignore these issues, but alternative truth telling websites like Zero Hedge, Mike Krieger’s Liberty Blitzkrieg, Mike Shedlock, John Rubino’s Dollar Collapse, Jim Kunstler, John Hussman, Jesse’s Cafe Americain, Charles Hugh Smith, Karl Denninger, and number of other freedom minded websites keep the spark of truth alive for those seeking it. A perusal of headlines from these sites over the last week or so provides the true nature of this worsening Fourth Turning Crisis:
Debt
Mindblowing Fact Of The Day: China Has Over 52 Million Vacant Homes
The Subprime Auto-Lending Credit Bubble Is Bursting
China HSBC PMI Misses; Economy Contracts For 5th Month In A Row
Will Spain Default?
Fed Prepares to Maintain Record Balance Sheet for Years
Steve Forbes Warns Of Economic “Catastrophe” Due To Fed’s Dollar Debasement
Obama Unveils Student Loan Debt Bubble Bailout
America’s Insatiable Demand For More Expensive Cars, Larger Homes And Bigger Debts
China Scrambling After “Discovering” Thousands Of Tons Of Rehypothecated Copper, Aluminum Missing
Western Banks Scramble As China’s “Rehypothecation Evaporation” Goes Global
Consumer Credit Has Fifth Biggest Monthly Jump In History; Revolving Credit Soars By Most Since November 2007
Abenomics’ Legacy: Japan’s Greatest “Misery” In 33 Years
NIRP Has Arrived: Europe Officially Enters The “Monetary Twilight Zone”
EU Warns Greece Is “A Cause Of Serious Concern” As Top Tax-Collector Resigns
Why Central Bank Stimulus Cannot Bring Economic Recovery
Summer Gas Prices Highest Since 2011 As Oil Hits 9-Month Highs
It Was A Reeeeeally Bad Winter: JPM Cuts Q1 GDP From -1.1% To -1.6%
How The Fed Feeds The Sharks, While Shafting Wage Earners And Savers
Fed’s Bubble Finance Is Primary Cause of Massive Wealth Gains At The Top
Former ECB Chief Economist Says Central Bank Run Monetary System Is “Pure Fiction”
More On The China Property Bubble: April New Housing Starts Down 25%; Beijing/Shanghai Sales Down 50%
What Happens After The Bubble Bursts: 85% Of Pension Funds Could Fail Due To An Era Of Niggardly Returns
Civic Decay
Across America, Police Departments Are Quietly Preparing For War
Meet The “Minerva Research Initiative” – The Pentagon’s Preparation For “Mass Civil Breakdown”
The Obama Administration Is Forcing Local Cops To Stay Silent On Surveillance
In 33 U.S. Cities, Feeding The Homeless Has Been Criminalized
Obama Popularity Plunges To New Low: “No Longer Likeable Enough”
Historic Loss: House Majority Leader Cantor Loses Virginia Primary To Tea Party’s Brat
Suspect Yells “Tell The Police, The Revolution Has Started” Before Shooting Spree In Las Vegas WalMart
Two Thirds Of Gen X Households Have Less Wealth Than Their Parents Did At The Same Age
7 In 10 Americans Believe The Crisis Is Not Over Or Worst Is Yet To Come: 52% Can’t Afford Their Homes
1 In 4 Obamacare Signups Are Faulty – But, We Are Sure Obama Never Knew Anything About It Until Now
Fed Warns The Plunge In “Routine” Jobs Won’t Slow Down Anytime Soon
US Finally Recovers All Jobs Lost Since 2007 While People Not In Labor Force Increase By 12.8 Million
Two-Thirds Of Americans Do Not Back Obama’s Decision On Bergdahl
Hiring In The US Remains Far Below Pre-Recession Levels
Half The Country Makes Less Than $27,520 A Year And 15 Other Signs The Middle Class Is Dying
The Rich Get Richest: Household Net Worth Rises To All Time High Courtesy Of $67 Trillion In Financial Assets
Challenger Job Cuts Soar 45%; Most Layoffs Since Feb 2013
It’s Not Just Europe; As Many As 16 California Counties May Seek Secession From The State
America’s Insanely Complex And Endemically Corrupt Tax Code: Mother Lode Of Crony Capitalist Plunder
Global Disorder
Al-Qaeda Jihadis Loot Over $400 Million From Mosul Central Bank, Seize Saddam’s Hometown
Al Qaeda Militants Capture US Black Hawk Helicopters In Iraq
Iraq Update: Kurds Take Kirkuk, Al Qaeda Surges Toward Baghdad
“Well-Armed” Taliban Tried To Hijack Airplane Leading To Pakistan Airport Shootout
Gruesome Footage Of ISIS Atrocities Reveals Al Qaeda Jihadists “Will Stop At Nothing”
Ukraine Military Transport Plane Shot Down, 49 Killed
Marc Faber Blasts “American Military Presence In Asia Is Completely Unacceptable”
B-1 Stealth Bomber “Friendly Fire” Strike Kills 5 US Soldiers In Afghanistan
World Needs Record Saudi Oil Supply as OPEC Convenes
Déjà vu: echoes of pre-crisis world mount
Chinese military spending exceeds $145 billion, drones advanced: U.S.
Ukraine Closes 8 Border Crossings On Reports Of Russian Troop Movement
Firefight Underway As Russian “Rebels” Cross Border Into Ukraine
US Begins Delivering F-16s To Iraq This Week, A Decade After It Wiped Out Iraq’s Air Force
Two Ukraine Helicopters Shot Down: Watch As Gunship Engages Eastern Militia In Intense Fighting
Saudi Arabia Reveals Surge In MERS Deaths: One Third Of Infected Patients Die
Japan Base Wages Decline 23 Months In A Row
Obama Calls for $1 Billion Europe Security Fund; Will Increase U.S. Military Presence in Eastern Europe
China Sends 4 More Fighter Jets To Oil Rig Area As Vietnam Threatens Legal Action
“Political Earthquake” – Nigel Farage “Big Winner” In Local Elections
Do these headlines indicate a lessening or deepening of the ongoing Crisis? You won’t see these truthful headlines in the mainstream captured media. You will see feel good headlines touting non-existent economic recoveries, decreasing unemployment rates with record levels of non-working Americans, and storylines of government, corporate and consumer austerity as debt levels reach all-time highs. You will see stories scorning Edward Snowden as a traitor for exposing the highest levels of the United States government as criminals for shredding the Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. You will see articles hyping one hundred years of shale oil and gas as energy prices approach record highs and the point of peak cheap oil has been passed. You will see publications owned by billionaires peddling hogwash about fantastic Wall Street profits entirely dependent upon mark to fantasy accounting and accounting journal entries relieving loan loss reserves as loan losses rise. You will see hyperbolic fear mongering dreck about foiled terrorist plots concocted by the FBI and DHS. You will see stories about the evil Russians and evil Chinese as our CIA promotes the overthrow of democratically elected officials in countries around the globe. You will see stories about the dangers of foreign countries conducting cyber-warfare against the U.S. as our government intercepts every electronic communication of our allies and citizens. It’s as if we are lost in a blizzard of lies.
Debt, Civic Decay, Global Disorder
Propaganda and the molding of minds cannot change the course of history. Those in power can ignore the facts, but they can’t change the facts. During the “austere” period from 2009 through until today, total credit market debt in the U.S. has expanded from $53.4 trillion to $59.4 trillion. It now stands at 350% of GDP, even after the government added $500 billion out of thin air to GDP to further their deception of recovery. The U.S. national debt is at a record $17.5 trillion and goes up by $2.0 billion per day. This doesn’t include the $200 trillion of unfunded liabilities politicians have committed taxpayers to pay over the next few decades. Corporate debt is at record highs as CEO’s borrow to buy back their stock at record highs in order to boost EPS and drive their compensation higher.
Consumer debt has surged to new highs reaching $3.2 trillion, as government pushed subprime student loan debt and government peddled subprime auto loan lure more math challenged dupes into the banker web of debt. Even credit card debt surged in May as people can no longer make monthly payments for energy, food, rent, and healthcare. Retailers continue to report horrific profits as disposable income has been disposed of by the Federal Reserve’s QE and ZIRP “solutions”. The immense levels of debt plague the entire world as total global debt now surpasses $230 trillion, 313% of world GDP. The 40% surge in global debt since the 2008 debt created collapse is unprecedented in its scope and lunacy. Trying to resolve a debt problem created by criminal Wall Street bankers by allowing Wall Street controlled central bankers, politicians, and government bureaucrats to issue more debt, reduce interest rates to zero, and enrich the oligarchs, will end in catastrophe. The house of cards is teetering as trust dissipates, rehypothecated assets evaporate, the suppression of price discovery fails and the rigged stock market crashes for the third time in fourteen years.
The 2008 global financial crash was the catalyst for this Fourth Turning and the next leg down will unleash the fury of the masses as their remaining wealth, along with their hopes and dreams are obliterated. The civic decay is unmistakably visible, like a fissure in the road after an earthquake, and has left the masses angry, confused, dependent, ignorant, distracted, and suspicious. The extreme and growing wealth inequality driven by Federal Reserve policies, corporate lobbyist written government regulations and tax laws, and bankers controlling the political, economic, financial, and media levers has reached levels previously associated with collapse and revolution. The greed, hubris and arrogance of the .01% will lead to their downfall.
A country with 102 million of its 247 million working age population not working is a powder-keg and the politicians are acting like slow witted monkeys lighting matches. With 20% of the 145 million jobs part-time, more than half low paying service industry jobs, real wages lower than they were in 1998, and a median salary of $25,000, it’s understandable why 20% of the population relies on food stamps to survive. The discontent is growing. We got a preview of how the establishment will deal with disgruntlement during the 2011 Occupy Wall Street protests. Liberal Democrat mayors aligned with Fox News neo-cons, Wall Street bankers, and police state thugs to eradicate, beat, tear gas, and pepper spray young people exercising their right to free speech protesting the wolves of Wall Street, who had pulled of the largest heist in human history with absolutely no consequences for their criminality. Both OWS and the Tea Party were co-opted by the establishment in short order and have been used by the One Party of oligarchs as a means to divide and conquer, by keeping the masses blaming liberal or conservative phantoms for the state of disunion.
The seemingly never ending revelations from the hero of this Fourth Turning – Edward Snowden – of government surveillance regarding every electronic communication of every American by the NSA is proof of a complete disregard for Constitutionally guaranteed protections by the powers that be. The current administration in conjunction with the hacks from the two headed party ignore, flaunt and show disdain for the Bill of Rights and legal precedent as they run roughshod over the citizens. The transformation of our republic into an authoritarian surveillance police state is almost complete.
The militarization of local police forces by the DHS, military training exercises in major cities, and plans being drawn up by the authorities to confront civil unrest all point towards the coming breakdown of civil society. The complete lockdown of Boston to apprehend two teenage cooking utensil terrorists was a dry run and probably gave the oligarchs confidence in their plan, as Bostonians cowered in their homes as heavily armed police thugs pissed on the Fourth Amendment by conducting door to door searches. If you listen closely, you can hear the fabric of our civilization being torn asunder.
The past few weeks have seen global disorder reach new heights, as Iraq has become Mission Un-Accomplished, the Ukraine explodes into civil war as Russia cuts off their natural gas, violent protests continue to rock Brazil, Egypt, Spain, Greece, France, Turkey and a myriad of other hotspots around the world. The very same forces Obama, McCain and the military industrial complex have been arming in Syria to fight a dictator who was our ally, are now ransacking Iraq, murdering the people we put into power when we deposed another dictator who had been our ally when he was fighting our sworn enemy – Iran. It seems Iran is now helping Iraq fight these jihadists, as they slowly but surely gain control over Iraq. The EU has papered over their national insolvency problems with more debt, while imposing austerity measures on the peasants. See French Revolution for the ultimate resolution of this banker-centric solution. The endemic fraud in China, along with an imploding real estate market, and corruption on an epic scale are creating a perfect storm which will derail the China miracle meme.
Meanwhile, the new dictator in Egypt who overthrew the democratically elected government, after our former dictator ally was deposed when Obama refused to support him, has clamped down on the citizens with his military force. The Ukraine is being torn apart after the CIA and their counterparts in the EU undermined the democratically elected government and started a civil war to undermine Russian influence in that country. To an impartial observer, you might think the American Empire is purposely sowing seeds of discontent, war, and disorder around the globe. Never ending war benefits the military industrial complex, as tremendous profits are generated from the sale of arms to all parties involved. Iraq and Syria are good for the bottom line of the U.S. Defense Industry. War and global disorder also benefit the worldwide banking cabal, as the only way to fund these misadventures is through debt. As we all know, debt is what makes this world go round – until it doesn’t.
There has been a virtual mainstream media blackout regarding the Ukraine as government forces bomb and murder civilians. The billionaires running America need to support the billionaire president of the Ukraine because he is one of them. Truth has no place in modern governmental affairs. The mainstream media ignores the fact the United States has armed Sunni terrorists in Syria who are now on the verge of overrunning Baghdad, as they slaughter Iraqi Shiites by the thousands. They ignore the fact that Iraq was a modern, stable, non-religious, oil producing nation under Hussein, with no Al Qaeda or sectarian violence. The United States invaded a sovereign country under false pretenses, wasted over $1 trillion of precious national wealth, killed over 100,000 Iraqis, sustained over 37,000 physical casualties, untold numbers of mental casualties, and now Iraq is dissolving into a quagmire of religious violence threatening oil supplies and driving prices higher. After 13 years and 21,000 casualties in Afghanistan, the Taliban are stronger than ever as we declare victory and slink away. Libya has been another feather in the cap of American foreign policy as we deposed another former ally dictator and have left the country in disarray and civil war. Just because the American corporate media doesn’t report these facts, doesn’t make them not so.
It should be clear to anyone willing to open their eyes and not be influenced by the establishment propaganda that this Fourth Turning is entering a new ominous phase, as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis catalyst has ignited a volcanic eruption which has put tremendous strain on the areas of extreme vulnerability – debt, civic decay, global disorder. The few aware Americans who frequent truth telling websites are frustrated and impatient, waiting for the tsunami of change to sweep over the world. History operates at its own cyclical pace. An accelerated Fourth Turning would likely not be a positive development. The Civil War Crisis was accelerated, resulting in 700,000 deaths in four years. With the worldwide proliferation of nuclear missiles, this Fourth Turning could be over with the push of a button. I don’t think anyone is rooting for that outcome.
You can easily be distracted by the day to day machinations of evil men, relentless propaganda, meaningless distractions, and various forms of bread and circuses. But history is unforgiving. The details and events will be different, but the path of this Crisis will follow past Crisis periods. The worldwide debt bubble will burst. The resulting loss of wealth, jobs, entitlements and trust will ignite mass civil disorder as years of civic decay lead to a swift societal collapse. With China also entering a Fourth Turning, a global debt implosion, resource wars breaking out, religious extremism, and nationalistic drums beating, the likelihood of global war is high.
For some perspective, six years into the last Fourth Turning in 1935, GDP had risen by 30% from its 1933 low and FDR’s New Deal was supposedly lifting the country from its depths. In reality, the population was experiencing a worsening depression and a few years later a world war killed 65 million people. After six years the Civil War Crisis was resolved with 5% of the nation’s male population killed, a president assassinated, and the South left in ruins. This Fourth Turning will proceed along its destined path at its own pace. The molten ingredients of debt, civic decay and global disorder are conjoining in an explosive concoction leading to a conflagration which will flow across the globe on a scale not seen since the Second World War. There is no escaping the trials and tribulations awaiting us. The outcome is uncertain. It could end in glory or destruction. Individual sacrifice, shared burdens, courageous stands and inspired leadership will be required to survive the perilous trials ahead.
“Imagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:
Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
Social distress, with violence fueled by class, race, nativism, or religion and abetted by armed gangs, underground militias, and mercenaries hired by walled communities
Political distress, with institutional collapse, open tax revolts, one-party hegemony, major constitutional change, secessionism, authoritarianism, and altered national borders
Military distress, with war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997
“One does not invade a country.” – Ketchup Boy Kerry
Now that is a good one. Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, Syria ……
The U.S. needs to keep their fucking nose out of Russia’s business. Let the fucking French and rest of the dainty EU debt saturated pussies save the Ukraine from big bad Putin.
In mid-January of this year I wrote my annual prediction article for 2013 – Apparitions in the Fog. It is again time to assess my inability to predict the future any better than a dart throwing monkey. As usual, sticking to facts was a mistake in a world fueled by misinformation, propaganda, delusion and wishful thinking. I was far too pessimistic about the near term implications of debt, civic decay and global disorder. Those in power have successfully held off the unavoidable collapse which will be brought about by their ravenous unbridled greed, and blatant disregard for the rule of law, the U.S. Constitution and rights and liberties of the American people. The day to day minutia, pointless drivel of our techno-narcissistic selfie showbiz society, and artificially created issues (gay marriage, Zimmerman-Martin, Baby North West, Duck Dynasty) designed to distract the public from thinking, are worthless trivialities in the broad landscape of human history.
The course of human history is determined by recurring cyclical themes based upon human frailties that have been perpetual through centuries of antiquity. The immense day to day noise of an inter-connected techno-world awash in inconsequentialities and manipulated by men of evil intent is designed to divert the attention of the masses from the criminal activities of those in power. It has always been so. There have always been arrogant, ambitious, greedy, power hungry, deceitful men, willing to take advantage of a fearful, lazy, ignorant, selfish, easily manipulated populace. The rhythms of history are unaffected by predictions of “experts” who are paid to spin yarns in order to sustain the status quo. There is no avoiding the consequences of actions taken and not taken over the last eighty years. We are in the midst of a twenty year period of Crisis that was launched in September 2008 with the worldwide financial collapse, created by the Federal Reserve, their Wall Street owners, their bought off Washington politicians, and their media and academic propaganda machines.
I still stand by the final paragraph of my 2013 missive, and despite the fact the establishment has been able to fend off the final collapse of their man made credit boom for longer than I anticipated, they have only insured a far worse outcome when the bubble bursts:
“So now I’m on the record for 2013 and I can be scorned and ridiculed for being such a pessimist when December rolls around and our Ponzi scheme economy hasn’t collapsed. There is no disputing the facts. The economic situation is deteriorating for the average American, the mood of the country is darkening, and the world is awash in debt and turmoil. Every country is attempting to print their way to renewed prosperity. No one wins a race to the bottom. The oligarchs have chosen a path of currency debasement, propping up insolvent banks, propaganda and impoverishing the masses as their preferred course. They attempt to keep the masses distracted with political theater, gun control vitriol, reality TV and iGadgets. What can be said about a society where 10% of the population follows Justin Bieber and Lady Gaga on Twitter and where 50% think the National Debt is a monument in Washington D.C. The country is controlled by evil sycophants, intellectually dishonest toadies and blood sucking leeches. Their lies and deception have held sway for the last four years, but they have only delayed the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. They will not reverse course and believe their intellectual superiority will allow them to retain their control after the collapse.”
The core elements of this Crisis have been visible since Strauss & Howe wrote The Fourth Turning in 1997. All the major events that transpire during this Crisis will be driven by one or more of these core elements – Debt, Civic Decay, and Global Disorder.
“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
My 2013 predictions were framed by these core elements. After re-reading my article for the first time in eleven months I’ve concluded it is lucky I don’t charge for investment predictions. Many of my prognostications were in the ballpark, but I have continually underestimated the ability of central bankers and their Wall Street co-conspirators to use the $2.8 billion per day of QE to artificially elevate the stock market to bubble level proportions once again. If I wasn’t such a trusting soul, I might conclude the .1% financial elite, who run this country, created QEternity to benefit themselves, their .1% corporate CEO accomplices and the corrupt government apparatchiks who shield their flagrant criminality from the righteous hand of justice.
Even a highly educated Ivy League economist might grasp the fact that Ben Bernanke’s QEternity and ZIRP, sold to the unsuspecting masses as desperate measures during a crisis that could have brought the system down, have been kept in place for five years as a means to drive stock prices and home prices higher. The emergency was over by 2010, according to government reported data. The current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve would have been viewed as outrageous, reckless, and incomprehensible in 2007. It is truly a credit to the ruling elite and their media propaganda arm that they have been able to convince a majority of Americans their brazen felonious disregard for the wellbeing of the 99% is necessary to sustain the .1% way of life. Those palaces in the Hamptons aren’t going to pay for themselves without those $100 billion of annual bonuses.
Do you think the 170% increase in the S&P 500 has been accidently correlated with the quadrupling of the Federal Reserve balance sheet or has Bernanke just done the bidding of his puppet masters? Considering the .1% billionaire clique owns the vast majority of stock in this corporate fascist paradise, is it really a surprise the trickle down canard would be the solution of choice from these sociopathic scoundrels? Of course QE and ZIRP have impacted the 80% who own virtually no stocks in a slightly different manner. Do you think the 100% increase in gasoline prices since 2009 was caused by Bernanke’s QEternity?
Do you think the 8% decline in real median household income since 2008 was caused by Bernanke’s QE and ZIRP policies?
Do you think the $10.8 trillion stolen from grandmothers and risk adverse savers was caused by Bernanke’s ZIRP?
Was the $860 billion increase in real GDP (5.8% over five years) worth the $8 trillion increase in the National Debt and $3 trillion increase in the Federal Reserve balance sheet? Was it moral, courageous and honorable of the Wall Street plantation owners to syphon the remaining wealth of the dying middle class peasants and leaving the millennial generation and future generations bound in chains of unfunded debt to the tune of $200 trillion?
My assessment regarding unpredictable events lurking in the fog was borne out by what happened that NO ONE predicted, including: the first resignation of a pope in six hundred years, the military coup of a democratically elected president of Egypt – supported by the democratically elected U.S. president, the rise of an alternative currency – bitcoin, the bankruptcy of one of the largest cities in the U.S. – Detroit, a minor terrorist attack in Boston that freaked out the entire country and revealed the Nazi-like un-Constitutional tactics that will be used by the police state as this Crisis deepens, and revelations by a brilliant young patriot named Edward Snowden proving that the U.S. has been turned into an Orwellian surveillance state as every electronic communication of every American is being monitored and recorded. The Democrats and Republicans played their parts in this theater of the absurd. They proved to be two faces of the same Party as neither faction questions the droning of innocent people around the globe, mass spying on citizens, Wall Street criminality, trillion dollar deficits, a rogue Federal Reserve, or out of control unsustainable government spending.
My predictions for 2013 were divided into the three categories driving this Fourth Turning Crisis – Debt, Civic Decay, and Global Disorder. Let’s assess my inaccuracy.
Debt
The debt ceiling will be raised as the toothless Republican Party vows to cut spending next time. The political hacks will create a 3,000 page document of triggers and create a committee to study the issue, with actual measures that slow the growth of annual spending by .000005% starting in 2017.
The government shutdown reality TV show proved to be the usual Washington D.C. kabuki theater. They gave a shutdown and no one noticed. It had zero impact on the economy. More people came to the realization that government does nothing except spend our money and push us around. The debt ceiling was raised, the sequester faux “cuts” were reversed and $20 billion of spending will be cut sometime in the distant future. Washington snakes are entirely predictable. I nailed this prediction.
The National Debt will increase by $1.25 trillion and debt to GDP will reach 106% by the end of the fiscal year.
The National Debt increased by ONLY $964 billion in the last fiscal year, even though the government stopped counting in May. The temporary sequester cuts, the expiration of the 2% payroll tax cut, the fake Fannie & Freddie paybacks to the U.S. Treasury based upon mark to fantasy accounting, and the automatic expiration of stimulus spending combined to keep the real deficit from reaching $1 trillion for the fifth straight year. Debt to GDP was 104%, before our beloved government drones decided to “adjust” GDP upwards by $500 billion based upon a new and improved formula, like Tide detergent. I missed this prediction by a smidgeon.
The Federal Reserve balance sheet will reach $4 trillion by the end of the year.
The Federal Reserve balance sheet stands at $4.075 trillion today. Ben is very predictable, and of course “transparent”. This was an easy one.
Consumer debt will reach $2.9 trillion as the Feds accelerate student loans and Ally Financial, along with the other Too Big To Control Wall Street banks, keep pumping out subprime auto loans. By mid-year reported losses on student loans will soar and auto loan delinquencies will show an upturn. This will force a slowdown in consumer debt issuance, exacerbating the recession that started in 2012.
Consumer debt outstanding currently stands at $3.076 trillion despite the fact that credit card debt has been virtually flat. The Federal government has continued to dole out billions in loans to University of Phoenix wannabes and to the subprime urban entitlement armies who deserve to drive an Escalade despite having no job, no assets and a sub 650 credit score, through government owned Ally Financial. It helps drive business when you don’t care about being repaid. Student loan delinquency rates are at an all-time high, as there are no jobs for graduates with tens of thousands in debt. Auto loan delinquencies have begun to rise despite the fact we are supposedly in a strongly recovering economy. The slowdown in debt issuance has not happened, as the Federal government is in complete control of the non-revolving loan segment. My prediction has proven to be accurate.
The Bakken oil miracle will prove to be nothing more than Wall Street shysters selling a storyline. Daily output will stall at 750,000 barrels per day and the dreams of imminent energy independence will be annihilated by reality, again. The price of oil will average $105 per barrel, as global tensions restrict supply.
Bakken production has reached 867,000 barrels per day as more and more wells have been drilled to offset the steep depletion rates of the existing wells. The average price per barrel has been $104, despite the frantic propaganda campaign about imminent American energy independence. Tell that to the average Joe filling their tank and paying the highest December gas price in history. My prediction was too pessimistic, but the Bakken miracle will be revealed as an over-hyped Wall Street scam in 2014.
The home price increases generated through inventory manipulation in 2012 will peter out as 2013 progresses. The market has been flooded by investors. There is very little real demand for new homes. Young households with heavy student loan debt and low paying jobs will continue to rent, since the oligarchs refused to let prices fall to a level that would spur real demand. Mortgage delinquencies will rise as job growth remains stagnant, leading to an increase in foreclosures. Rent prices will flatten as apartment construction and investors flood the market with supply.
Existing home sales peaked in the middle of 2013 and have been in decline as mortgage rates have jumped from 3.25% to 4.5% since February. New home sales remain stagnant, near record low levels. The median sales price for existing home sales peaked at $214,000 in June and has fallen for five consecutive months by a total of 8%. First time home buyers account for a record low of 28% of purchases, while investors account for a record high level of purchasers. Mortgage delinquencies fell for most of the year, but the chickens are beginning to come home to roost as delinquent mortgage loans rose from 6.28% in October to 6.45% in November. Rent increases slowed to below 3% as Blackrock and the other Wall Street shysters flood the market with their foreclosure rental properties. My housing prediction was accurate.
The disconnect between the stock market and the housing and employment markets will be rectified when the MSM can no longer deny the recession that began in 2012 and will deepen in the first part of 2013. While housing prices languish 30% below their peak levels of 2006, the stock market has prematurely ejaculated back to pre-crisis levels. Declining corporate profits, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing debt defaults will finally result in a 20% decline in the stock market, with a chance for losses greater than 30% if Japan or the EU begin to crumble.
And now we get to the prediction that makes me happy I don’t charge people for investment advice. Facts don’t matter in world of QE for the psychopathic titans of Wall Street and misery for the indebted peasants of Main Street. The government data drones, Ivy League educated Wall Street economists, and the obedient corporate media propaganda apparatus declare that GDP has grown by 2% over the last four quarters and we are not in a recession. If you believe their bogus inflation calculation then just ignore the collapsing retail sales, stagnant real wages, and rising gap between the uber-rich and the rest of us. Using a true measure of inflation reveals an economy in recession since 2004. Whose version matches the reality on the ground?
Corporate profits have leveled off at record highs as mark to fantasy accounting fraud, condoned and encouraged by the Federal Reserve, along with loan loss reserve depletion and $5 billion of risk free profits from parking deposits at the Fed have created a one-time peak. The record level of negative earnings warnings is the proverbial bell ringing at the top.
I only missed my stock market prediction by 50%, as the 30% rise was somewhat better than my 20% decline prediction. Bernanke’s QEternity, Wall Street’s high frequency trading supercomputers, record levels of margin debt, a dash of delusion, and a helping of clueless dupes have taken the stock market to another bubble high. My prediction makes me look like an idiot today. I’m OK with that, since I know facts and reality always prevail in the long-run. As John Hussman sagely points out, today’s idiot will be tomorrow’s beacon of truth:
“The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak. There’s no calling the top, and most of the signals that have been most historically useful for that purpose have been blazing red since late-2011. My impression remains that the downside risks for the market have been deferred, not eliminated, and that they will be worse for the wait.”
Japan is still a bug in search of a windshield. With a debt to GDP ratio of 230%, a population dying off, energy dependence escalating, trade surplus decreasing, an already failed Prime Minister vowing to increase inflation, and rising tensions with China, Japan is a primary candidate to be the first domino to fall in the game of debt chicken. A 2% increase in interest rates would destroy the Japanese economic system.
Abenomics has done nothing for the average Japanese citizen, but it has done wonders for the ruling class who own all the stocks. Abe has implemented monetary policies that make Bernanke get a hard on. Japanese economic growth remains mired at 1.1%, wages remain stagnant, and their debt to GDP ratio remains above 230%, but at least he has driven their currency down 20% versus the USD and crushed the common person with 9% energy inflation. None of this matters, because the .1% have benefitted from a 56% increase in the Japanese stock market. My prediction was wrong. The windshield is further down the road, but it is approaching at 100 mph.
The EU has temporarily delayed the endgame for their failed experiment. Economic conditions in Greece, Spain and Italy worsen by the day with unemployment reaching dangerous revolutionary levels. Pretending countries will pay each other with newly created debt will not solve a debt crisis. They don’t have a liquidity problem. They have a solvency problem. The only people who have been saved by the actions taken so far are bankers and politicians. I believe the crisis will reignite, with interest rates spiking in Spain, Italy and France. The Germans will get fed up with the rest of Europe and the EU will begin to disintegrate.
This was another complete miss on my part. Economic conditions have not improved in Europe. Unemployment remains at record levels. EU GDP is barely above 0%. Debt levels continue to rise. Central bank bond buying has propped up this teetering edifice of ineptitude and interest rates in Spain, Italy and France have fallen to ridiculously low levels of 4%, considering they are completely insolvent with no possibility for escape. The disintegration of the EU will have to wait for another day.
Civic Decay
Progressive’s attempt to distract the masses from our worsening economic situation with their assault on the 2nd Amendment will fail. Congress will pass no new restrictions on gun ownership and 2013 will see the highest level of gun sales in history.
Obama and his gun grabbing sycophants attempted to use the Newtown massacre as the lever to overturn the 2nd Amendment. The liberal media went into full shriek mode, but the citizens again prevailed and no Federal legislation restricting the 2nd Amendment passed. Gun sales in 2013 will set an all-time record. With the Orwellian surveillance state growing by the day, arming yourself is the rational thing to do. I nailed this prediction.
The deepening recession, higher taxes on small businesses and middle class, along with Obamacare mandates will lead to rising unemployment and rising anger with the failed economic policies of the last four years. Protests and rallies will begin to burgeon.
The little people are experiencing a recession. The little people bore the brunt of the 2% payroll tax increase. The little people are bearing the burden of the Obamacare insurance premium increases. The number of employed Americans has increased by 1 million in the last year, a whole .4% of the working age population. The number of Americans who have willingly left the labor force in the last year because their lives are so fulfilled totaled 2.5 million, leaving the labor participation rate at a 35 year low. The anger among the former middle class is simmering below the surface, as Bernanke’s policies further impoverish the multitudes. Mass protests have not materialized but the Washington Navy yard shooting, dental hygenist murdered by DC police for ramming a White House barrier, and self- immolation of veteran John Constantino on the National Mall were all individual acts of desperation against the establishment.
The number of people on food stamps will reach 50 million and the number of people on SSDI will reach 11 million. Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein, and Jeff Immelt will compensate themselves to the tune of $100 million. CNBC will proclaim an economic recovery based on these facts.
The number of people on food stamps appears to have peaked just below 48 million, as the expiration of stimulus spending will probably keep the program from reaching 50 million. As of November there were 10.98 million people in the SSDI program. The top eight Wall Street banks have set aside a modest $91 billion for 2013 bonuses. The cost of providing food stamps for 48 million Americans totaled $76 billion. CNBC is thrilled with the record level of bonuses for the noble Wall Street capitalists, while scorning the lazy laid-off middle class workers whose jobs were shipped to China by the corporations whose profits are at all-time highs and stock price soars. Isn’t crony capitalism grand?
The drought will continue in 2013 resulting in higher food prices, ethanol prices, and shipping costs, as transporting goods on the Mississippi River will become further restricted. The misery index for the average American family will reach new highs.
The drought conditions in the U.S. Midwest have been relieved. Ethanol prices have been flat. Beef prices have risen by 10% since May due to the drought impact from 2012, but overall food price increases have been moderate. The misery index (unemployment rate + inflation rate) has supposedly fallen, based on government manipulated data. I whiffed on this prediction.
There will be assassination attempts on political and business leaders as retribution for their actions during and after the financial crisis.
There have been no assassination attempts on those responsible for our downward financial spiral. The anger has been turned inward as suicides have increased by 30% due to the unbearable economic circumstances brought on by the illegal financial machinations of the Wall Street criminal banks. Obama and Dick Cheney must be thrilled that more military personnel died by suicide in 2013 than on the battlefield. Mission Accomplished. The retribution dealt to bankers and politicians will come after the next collapse. For now, my prediction was premature.
The revelation of more fraud in the financial sector will result in an outcry from the public for justice. Prosecutions will be pursued by State’s attorney generals, as Holder has been captured by Wall Street.
Holder and the U.S. government remain fully captured by Wall Street. The states have proven to be toothless in their efforts to enforce the law against Wall Street. The continuing revelations of Wall Street fraud and billions in fines paid by JP Morgan and the other Too Big To Trust banks have been glossed over by the captured mainstream media. As long as EBT cards, Visas and Mastercards continue to function, there will be no outrage from the techno-narcissistic, debt addicted, math challenged, wilfully ignorant masses. Another wishful thinking wrong prediction on my part.
The deepening pension crisis in the states will lead to more state worker layoffs and more confrontation between governors attempting to balance budgets and government worker unions. There will be more municipal bankruptcies.
Using a still optimistic discount rate of 5%, the unfunded pension liability of states and municipalities totals $3 trillion. The taxpayers don’t have enough cheese left for the government rats to steal. The crisis deepens by the second. State and municipal budgets require larger pension payments every year. The tax base is stagnant or declining. States must balance their budgets. They will continue to cut existing workers to pay the legacy costs until they all experience their Detroit moment. With the Detroit bankruptcy, I’ll take credit for getting this prediction right.
The gun issue will further enflame talk of state secession. The red state/blue state divide will grow ever wider. The MSM will aggravate the divisions with vitriolic propaganda.
With the revelations of Federal government spying, military training exercises in cities across the country, the blatant disregard for the 4th Amendment during the shutdown of Boston, and un-Constitutional mandates of Obamacare, there has been a tremendous increase in chatter about secession. A google search gets over 200,000 hits in the last year. The divide between red states and blue states has never been wider.
The government will accelerate their surveillance efforts and renew their attempt to monitor, control, and censor the internet. This will result in increased cyber-attacks on government and corporate computer networks in retaliation.
If anything I dramatically underestimated the lengths to which the United States government would go in their illegal surveillance of the American people and foreign leaders. Edward Snowden exposed the grandest government criminal conspiracy in history as the world found out the NSA, with the full knowledge of the president and Congress, has been conspiring with major communications and internet companies to monitor and record every electronic communication on earth, in clear violation of the 4th Amendment. Government apparatchiks like James Clapper have blatantly lied to Congress about their spying activities. The lawlessness with which the government is now operating has led to anarchist computer hackers conducting cyber-attacks on government and corporate networks. The recent hacking of the Target credit card system will have devastating implications to their already waning business. I’ll take credit for an accurate prediction on this one.
Global Disorder
With new leadership in Japan and China, neither will want to lose face, so early in their new terms. Neither side will back down in their ongoing conflict over islands in the East China Sea. China will shoot down a Japanese aircraft and trade between the countries will halt, leading to further downturns in both of their economies.
The Japanese/Chinese dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands has blown hot and cold throughout the year. In the past month the vitriol has grown intense. China has scrambled fighter jets over the disputed islands. The recent visit of Abe to a World War II shrine honoring war criminals has enraged the Chinese. Trade between the countries has declined. An aircraft has not been shot down, but an American warship almost collided with a Chinese warship near the islands, since our empire must stick their nose into every worldwide dispute. We are one miscalculation away from a shooting war. It hasn’t happened yet, so my prediction was wrong.
Worker protests over slave labor conditions in Chinese factories will increase as food price increases hit home on peasants that spend 70% of their pay for food. The new regime will crackdown with brutal measures, but the protests will grow increasingly violent. The economic data showing growth will be discredited by what is happening on the ground. China will come in for a real hard landing. Maybe they can hide the billions of bad debt in some of their vacant cities.
The number of worker protests over low pay and working conditions in China doubled over the previous year, but censorship of reporting has kept these facts under wraps. In a dictatorship, the crackdown on these protests goes unreported. The fraudulent economic data issued by the government has been proven false by independent analysts. The Chinese stock market has fallen 14%, reflecting the true economic situation. The Chinese property bubble is in the process of popping. China will never officially report a hard landing. China is the most corrupt nation on earth and is rotting from the inside, like their vacant malls and cities. China’s economy is like an Asiana Airlines Boeing 777 coming in for a landing at SF International.
Violence and turmoil in Greece will spread to Spain during the early part of the year, with protests and anger spreading to Italy and France later in the year. The EU public relations campaign, built on sandcastles of debt in the sky and false promises of corrupt politicians, will falter by mid-year. Interest rates will begin to spike and the endgame will commence. Greece will depart the EU, with Spain not far behind. The unraveling of debt will plunge all of Europe into depression.
Violent protests flared in Greece and Spain throughout the year. They did not spread to Italy and France. The central bankers and the puppet politicians have been able to contain the EU’s debt insolvency through the issuance of more debt. What a great plan. The grand finale has been delayed into 2014. Greece remains on life support and still in the EU. The EU remains in recession, but the depression has been postponed for the time being. This prediction was a dud.
Iran will grow increasingly desperate as hyperinflation caused by U.S. economic sanctions provokes the leadership to lash out at its neighbors and unleash cyber-attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities and U.S. corporations. Israel will use the rising tensions as the impetus to finally attack Iranian nuclear facilities. The U.S. will support the attack and Iran will launch missiles at Saudi Arabia and Israel in retaliation. The price of oil will spike above $125 per barrel, further deepening the worldwide recession.
Iran was experiencing hyperinflationary conditions early in the year, but since the election of the new president the economy has stabilized. Iran has conducted cyber-attacks against Saudi Arabian gas companies and the U.S. Navy during 2013. Israel and Saudi Arabia have failed in their efforts to lure Iran into a shooting war. Obama has opened dialogue with the new president to the chagrin of Israel. War has been put off and the negative economic impacts of surging oil prices have been forestalled. I missed on this prediction.
Syrian President Assad will be ousted and executed by rebels. Syria will fall under the control of Islamic rebels, who will not be friendly to the United States or Israel. Russia will stir up discontent in retaliation for the ouster of their ally.
Assad has proven to be much tougher than anyone expected. The trumped up charges of gassing rebel forces, created by the Saudis who want a gas pipeline through Syria, was not enough to convince the American people to allow our president to invade another sovereign country. Putin and Russia won this battle. America’s stature in the eyes of the world was reduced further. America continues to support Al Qaeda rebels in Syria, while fighting them in Afghanistan. The hypocrisy is palpable. Another miss.
Egypt and Libya will increasingly become Islamic states and will further descend into civil war.
The first democratically elected president of Egypt, Mohammed Morsi, was overthrown in a military coup as the country has descended into a civil war between the military forces and Islamic forces. It should be noted that the U.S. supported the overthrow of a democratically elected leader. Libya is a failed state with Islamic factions vying for power and on the verge of a 2nd civil war. Oil production has collapsed. I’ll take credit for an accurate prediction on this one.
The further depletion of the Cantarell oil field will destroy the Mexican economy as it becomes a net energy importer. The drug violence will increase and more illegal immigrants will pour into the U.S. The U.S. will station military troops along the border.
Mexican oil production fell for the ninth consecutive year in 2013. It has fallen 25% since 2004 to the lowest level since 1995. Energy exports still slightly outweigh imports, but the trend is irreversible. Mexico is under siege by the drug cartels. The violence increases by the day. After declining from 2007 through 2009, illegal immigration from Mexico has been on the rise. Troops have not been stationed on the border as Obama and his liberal army encourages illegal immigration in their desire for an increase in Democratic voters. This prediction was mostly correct.
Cyber-attacks by China and Iran on government and corporate computer networks will grow increasingly frequent. One or more of these attacks will threaten nuclear power plants, our electrical grid, or the Pentagon.
China and Iran have been utilizing cyber-attacks on the U.S. military and government agencies as a response to NSA spying and U.S. sabotaging of Iranian nuclear facilities. Experts are issuing warnings regarding the susceptibility of U.S. nuclear facilities to cyber-attack. If a serious breach has occurred, the U.S. government wouldn’t be publicizing it. Again, this prediction was accurate.
I achieved about a 50% accuracy rate on my 2013 predictions. These minor distractions are meaningless in the broad spectrum of history and the inevitability of the current Fourth Turning sweeping away the existing social order in a whirlwind of chaos, violence, financial collapse and ultimately a decisive war. The exact timing and exact events which will precipitate the demise of the establishment are unknowable with any precision, but there is no escape from the inexorable march of history. While most people get lost in the minutia of day today existence and supposed Ivy League thought leaders are consumed with their own reputations and wealth, apparent stability will morph into terrifying volatility in an instant. The normalcy bias being practiced by an entire country will be shattered in a reality storm of consequences. The Crisis will continue to be driven by the ever growing debt levels, civic decay caused by government overreach, and global disorder driven by resource shortages and religious zealotry. The ultimate outcome is unpredictable, but the choices we make will matter. History is about to fling us towards a vast chaos.
“The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to plan our way there. The Fourth Turning will try our souls – and the saecular rhythm tells us that much will depend on how we face up to that trial. The saeculum does not reveal whether the story will have a happy ending, but it does tell us how and when our choices will make a difference.” – Strauss & Howe –The Fourth Turning
“I’m neither traitor nor hero. I’m an American.” – Edward Snowden
“If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.” – Samuel Adams
There are weeks that change the course of human history. There are weeks when people must choose sides. There are weeks that expose the real American traitors. There is no middle ground in this debate. You are either on the side of freedom, liberty, truth, transparency and the U.S. Constitution or you are on the side of mindless obedience, oppression, deception, corruption and tyranny. A courageous young Millennial named Edward Snowden has risked his life and his future to expose the illegal, surreptitious surveillance programs being conducted by the United States government in clear violation of the 4th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. The NSA, with the full knowledge of Barack Obama and Congress, has been covertly collecting phone and internet records on millions of Americans with the full cooperation of Verizon and other mega media/data corporations. Our owners have been using the U.S. Constitution to wipe their asses. The 4th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is so unambiguous that any intelligent politician, bright journalist or fifth grader in Miss Sabatini’s history class could interpret its meaning and intention. Our founding fathers believed in truth, clarity and simplicity. The traitorous sociopaths in control of our government today believe in obfuscation, ambiguity and complexity.
Living Constitution?
Do you believe the mass collection of metadata information from millions of Americans with no probable cause is an unreasonable search as defined by the 4th Amendment? Do you believe the complete lockdown of one of the biggest metropolitan areas in the country and the door to door search by heavily armed government security thugs for one wounded teenager, without warrants or probable cause, was a violation of the 4th Amendment? Do you believe secretive governmental agencies have the right to partner with the biggest internet/communications/mass media corporations in the world to record your phone calls, read your emails, and monitor your internet communications under the bogus justification of the War on Terror (you are more likely to be struck by lightning twice than to be killed by a terrorist)? Do you believe that government agencies tasked with revenue collection can be used to create an enemies list based upon whether you donated to the Ron Paul campaign, believe in liberty, or belong to a Tea Party organization? Do you believe allowing minimum wage government drones to molest little old ladies, paraplegics and three year old children, while conducting full body scans on all airline passengers really makes you safer from phantom terrorists? Do you believe having 30,000 high tech surveillance drones that can see you picking your nose in your driveway from 25,000 feet are not a violation of your privacy rights?
Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution:
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
If you answered in the affirmative to any or all of the questions above you are either a government apparatchik, someone dependent upon the surveillance state for your paycheck, a victim of decades of mind control through corporate mass media propaganda, or one of the willfully ignorant masses. Of course the ignorant masses will not be reading these questions as they are focused on the inbred royal family saga, Kim Kardashian’s bastard child pregnancy, and the upcoming episodes of Honey Boo Boo, Teen Mom, I Didn’t Know I Was Pregnant, Duck Dynasty, Real Housewives of Idiocracy or paying $200 on their plastic debt accumulator to watch multi-millionaire freaks of nature play children’s games. Those who argue the U.S. Constitution is a living document open to interpretation by the interchangeable corporate fascist parties that control the reins of power at Versailles on the Potomac are nothing but apologists for the corrupt status quo. The American people are provided the illusion of choice by their owners, but the major policies are kept intact – never ending war, never ending currency debasement, and never ending screwing of the middle class.
The revelations by Millennial martyr, Edward Snowden, about the PRISM program and the fact that the NSA harvests data directly from the servers of Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Apple, Yahoo and other corporate co-conspirators came just days after disclosure that our Orwellian trained keepers had been shredding the 1st Amendment. The Obama administration has continuously flaunted the Bill of Rights when they interfere with their mission to create a centrally planned welfare/warfare state. Republicans don’t resist Obama’s efforts on Constitutional grounds, as they have no love for its constraints either. The seizure of AP reporter phone records in an effort to uncover leaks and to intimidate the free press, monitoring of reporter James Rosen using false information to obtain a warrant, and the computer hacking of lead Benghazi CBS reporter Cheryl Attkisson are clearly violations of the 1st Amendment.
There has been faux outrage among those in the establishment. It’s nothing but a game to entertain their rabid disciples. There is virtually no difference between the pretend parties who alternately operate as figurehead leadership in Washington D.C. Both parties cooperated to crush the peaceable assembly of young people exercising their right to petition the government about the blatant criminality of Wall Street bankers. The supposed Soros inspired OWS movement was subdued by Democratic mayors using their local military police hooligans, supported by the Federal surveillance state, in cooperation with the very same criminal Wall Street banks who had destroyed the worldwide financial system in their ransacking of the nation’s wealth through a well planned and executed control fraud.
The cheerleading of this disgusting display of fascist tactics by Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News and the likes of CNN, MSNBC, and Bloomberg News told me everything I needed to know. Those within the status quo will circle the wagons whenever there is a threat to their wealth, power and control. If you make it onto the establishment’s enemies list, the Constitution will not protect you. The only true free speech is being exercised on the internet, for now. The plutocracy of wealthy corporate elite and their captured puppet politicians are attempting to crush dissent and free speech by restricting access to anti-establishment websites, introducing legislation to control the internet and as we now know hacking into sites considered enemies of the state. The guarantee of 1st Amendment protection has increasingly becoming a quaint old fashion notion in this fascist state.
First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution:
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
The Constitution has been increasingly treated as an optional instructional manual by what passes for leadership in this country. An all-out assault has been waged on the 2nd Amendment by the control freaks who want to create a national gun registry so they know where to send their military assault teams when the time comes. Every assault on our liberties, rights and freedoms is done on behalf of the children. Sinclair Lewis once declared:
“When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross.”
He was wrong. Fascism has come to America, wrapped in fiat currency, carrying a child as a prop, in the name of the War on Terrorism. Presidents have been flaunting their disdain for Article One, Section Eight of the Constitution since World War II. The Imperial American Empire has been militarily enforcing its hegemony over the world since the 1950’s without Congress ever declaring war, as required by the Constitution. Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and now Syria are just the latest victims of our hypocritical interventionist state. Our predator drones roam the skies above foreign countries murdering suspected bad guys at the whim of PS3 trained gutless techno geeks sipping a decaf on their 9 to 5 shift. The corrupt spineless swine in Congress expose themselves as nothing more than bought off acolytes of the military industrial complex warned about by Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1961:
“This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence — economic, political, even spiritual — is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society. In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.”
The citizens of this country have failed to heed his warning. We have not been alert and to describe the narcissistic, delusional, math challenged, willfully ignorant sheep, bleating for their safety and security as knowledgeable is beyond laughable. Security and liberty have not prospered together. The arms dealers formed an unholy alliance with the Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks, their sugar daddy Federal Reserve, easily bought off feckless political class, and sociopathic government bureaucrats to create this corporate fascist welfare/warfare state that has subverted our liberty while obscenely enriching the .1% who have used their unwarranted influence in a traitorous manner. The disastrous consequences for the world continue to build like the dome of a volcano before it detonates and destroys everything in a fiery swath of lava.
New Boss Same As The Old Boss
“If people can’t trust not only the executive branch, but also don’t trust Congress and don’t trust federal judges to make sure that we’re abiding by the Constitution, due process and rule of law, then we’re going to have some problems here.” – BarackObama
The nattering classes who dominate the boob tube spin the storylines of their corporate clients on a daily basis, but the uncovering of the deceitful activities of the ruling establishment by Edward Snowden have exposed the truth about who runs this country. Republicans, Democrats, neo-cons, ultra-liberals, Fox News, MSNBC, the New York Times, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, military generals, and the government drones who monitor our phone calls, texts, emails and internet postings have all shown their true colors in the last week. They don’t care about truth, justice, or the American people. James Clapper lied during sworn testimony before Congress about spying on millions of Americans because he didn’t think he’d be caught. He was caught red handed. And no one is calling for his apprehension and imprisonment.
We are lied to, misled, misinformed, and inundated with falsehoods and propaganda on a daily basis by our leaders. The proof that we live in a plutocracy dominated by two corrupt political parties (with 250 millionaires in Congress), six Wall Street banks (JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley), six mass media companies (Comcast, Google, Walt Disney, News Corp., Time Warner, Viacom), seven arm dealers (Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrup Grumman, General Dynamics, Raytheon, L-3 Communications, United Technologies), a few politically connected mega-corporations (Exxon, General Electric, Verizon, Microsoft, Wal-Mart, General Motors, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, IBM), and a few hundred shadowy billionaires is how they have unequivocally declared that Edward Snowden is a filthy high school dropout traitor. He has revealed secrets about how the lords of the manor keep the serfs and peasants under surveillance. Here is a smattering of the vitriol spewed about this American patriot:
“America is now a less safe place. The world is a less safe place because of what Mr. Snowden unilaterally did. He deserves to be prosecuted. I hope they find him in the hole that he’s hiding in in Hong Kong and bring him home and try him.”– Karl Rove
“I hope we follow Mr. Snowden to the ends of the earth to bring him to justice.” – Lindsey Graham
“For this, some, including my colleague John Cassidy, are hailing him as a hero and a whistle-blower. He is neither. He is, rather, a grandiose narcissist who deserves to be in prison.” – Jeffrey Toobin – The New Yorker
“What he did was an act of treason.” – Diane Feinstein
“He’s a traitor.” – John Boehner
“I think he should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. I consider him right now to be a defector.” – Peter King
“There is an obligation both moral, but also legal, I believe, against a reporter disclosing something which would so severely compromise national security.” – Peter King
“I can assure you, this is not about spying on the American people.” – Al Franken
“For me it is literally, not figuratively, literally, gut-wrenching to see this happen, because of the huge, grave damage it does to our intelligence capabilities.” – James Clapper (Perjurer)
“We do not see a tradeoff between security and liberty.” – Keith Alexander – NSA Director
“The national security of the United States has been damaged as a result those leaks. The safety of the American people and the safety of people who reside in allied nations have been put at risk as a result of these leaks.” – Eric Holder
“I think he’s a traitor. I’m suspicious because he went to China. That’s not a place where you would ordinarily want to go if you are interested in freedom, liberty and so forth. It raises questions whether or not he had that kind of connection before he did this.” – Dick Cheney – The Dark Lord
“And I hope that he is prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.” – Mitch McConnell
“Now you’ve got this 29-year-old high school dropout whistleblower making foreign policy for our country, our security policy. It’s sad, Brian. We’ve made treason cool. Betraying your country is kind of a fashion statement. He wants to be the national security Kim Kardashian. He cites Bradley Manning as a hero. I mean, we need to get very, very serious about treason. And oh by the way, for treason — as in the case of Bradley Manning or Edwards Snowden — you bring back the death penalty.” – Fox and Friends
“Can intelligence operate effectively if every starry-eyed analyst feels entitled to be a self-appointed whistle-blower?” – Gary Rosen – The Wall Street Journal
“Edward Snowden should go to jail, as quickly and for as long as possible.” – John Yoo – The National Review.
“I think on three scores—that is leaking the Patriot Act section 215, FISA 702, and the president’s classified cyber operations’ directive—on the strength of leaking that, yes, that would be a prosecutable offense. I think that he should be prosecuted.” – Nancy Pelosi
“Who is a journalist is a question we need to ask ourselves. Is any blogger out there saying anything – do they deserve First Amendment protection? These are the issues of our times.” – Lindsey Graham
“This lens makes you more likely to share the distinct strands of libertarianism that are blossoming in this fragmenting age: the deep suspicion of authority, the strong belief that hierarchies and organizations are suspect, the fervent devotion to transparency, the assumption that individual preference should be supreme. You’re more likely to donate to the Ron Paul for president campaign, as Snowden did. But Big Brother is not the only danger facing the country. Another is the rising tide of distrust, the corrosive spread of cynicism, the fraying of the social fabric and the rise of people who are so individualistic in their outlook that they have no real understanding of how to knit others together and look after the common good.” – David Brooks
It seems the ruling oligarchs, their mouthpieces in the mainstream media (both conservative & liberal), Machiavellian politicians on both sides of the aisle, unscrupulous military commanders and deceitful government bureaucrats have all rallied to shield their existing perverted surveillance state. These people actually believe that what is best for their own personal interests is best for the citizens of this country. There is only one Party – the Establishment Party. The smear campaign against Edward Snowden began immediately. The vitriolic accusations, venomous scorn, malicious ridicule and pathetic attempts to discredit Edward Snowden for sacrificing everything on behalf of the country he loves has revealed more truth about how the real world operates than the thousands of articles written by supposed “conspiracy theorists” over the last decade. Anyone with their eyes open and mind not controlled by the regime know the real criminals in this tragedy. Leon Trotsky, who also participated in a brutal fascist surveillance state, put it best:
“The real criminals hide under the cloak of the accusers.”
In a country where those in power encourage and participate in the plundering of people’s bank accounts by billionaires, the largest financial control fraud in world history by the biggest Wall Street banks, treating every citizen as a suspect until proven otherwise under the auspices of the ironically named Patriot Act, creating an Orwellian surveillance state of cameras, drones and snitches, torturing suspected enemies, conducting military exercises in the skies above our cities, seizing reporters’ personal records, using government agencies to harass political opponents, listening to our phone calls with warrantless wiretaps, reading our emails and texts, brutally crushing peaceful protests, attempting to disarm us, locking down an entire city and kicking doors down while searching for a hapless wounded teenager, appropriating our DNA, detaining us without charges, assassinating suspected dissidents, regulating what we can eat, drink or smoke, passing 2,500 page corporate lobbyist written bills that no one has read, using laws to enhance the wealth of the .1%, creating a tax code designed to minimize the burden on the .1%, the feeding of economic information by the Fed and Federal government to connected crony banks minutes before the public so they can pre-program their HFT computers to profit at the expense of the muppets, conducting cyber-attacks on sovereign countries and then feigning outrage when the favor is returned, and militarily intervening around the world under the false guise of strategic interests, we are supposed to trust the establishment? As we descend further into tyranny, I don’t know which is sadder – the pure evil of these men or the apathy and complacent acquiescence of the willfully ignorant masses to the methods employed by their owners. The numerous laws passed by those in power are just more proof of how corrupt our society has become.
“The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.” – Tacitus
The threat of tyranny was still raw in 1975, after the Watergate cover-up, when Senator Frank Church warned about the National Security Agency:
“I know the capacity that is there to make tyranny total in America, and we must see to it that this agency and all agencies that possess this technology operate within the law and under proper supervision, so that we never cross over that abyss. That is the abyss from which there is no return.”
Again, we failed to heed his warning. We’ve crossed over the abyss and the vision of our future will be the boot of a DHS thug stomping on the face of an American citizen – forever.
True Ruling Power of Our Country
“When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.” – Thomas Jefferson
Whenever I would use the term oligarchs, ruling elite, powers that be, owners, .1%, or ruling class, it always sounded too conspiratorial. But after years of reading the writings of Edward Bernays, Aldous Huxley, George Orwell, Ron Paul, George Carlin and a number of other “crazy” bloggers, while witnessing with my own two eyes what is happening in this country, I’ve come to the conclusion that our country is run by an invisible government consisting of a small cadre of rich powerful men who manipulate, obfuscate, eliminate and fabricate in their insatiable greed for glory, riches, power and control. They thought they had perfected the art of propaganda:
“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. …In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.” – Edward Bernays
The disclosure of the unholy alliance of corporations and the government to secretly spy on millions of Americans, while attempting to intimidate journalists and crush dissent from political opponents, is throwing the master plan of the ruling elite into disarray. The conspiracy of silence and denial is fraying at the edges as the truth continues to leak out:
“The contents of a phone call could be accessed simply based on an analyst deciding that. If the NSA wants to listen to the phone, an analyst’s decision is sufficient, without any other legal authorization required.” – Democratic Rep Jerrold Nadler
There have been a few lone voices in the wilderness warning about the rise of this corporate fascist surveillance one party state, but they have been scorned, ridiculed, marginalized and ignored. It seems the libertarian minded men and women of this country have been right all along.
“We’ve slipped away from a true republic. Now we’re slipping into a fascist system where it’s a combination of government, big business and authoritarian rule, and the suppression of the individual rights of each and every American citizen. When it comes to any significant differences on foreign policy, economic intervention, the Federal Reserve, a strong executive branch, a welfarism mixed with corporatism, both parties are very much alike. The major arguments in hotly contested presidential races are mostly for public consumption to convince the people they actually have a choice.” – Ron Paul
True liberty minded Americans and those who value freedom and the Constitution have rallied to the defense of a true patriot. “We the People” must reclaim this country from the unelected .1% who has conducted a silent coup while we were pre-occupied with our techno-narcissism and consumed by the urge to consume. We have an omnipotent outlaw government with concentrated overwhelming power. The out of control bureaucracy devouring treasure, the blood of our young, civil rights, and the Constitution will not yield of its own volition. When the government tyrants classify all of us as enemies of the state, it is time to dismantle the state and water the tree of liberty with some blood, if that is what is required.
“Perfect safety is not the purpose of government. What we want from government is to enforce the law to protect our liberties. The government does not need to know more about what we are doing. We need to know more about what the government is doing. We need to turn the cameras on the police and on the government, not the other way around. We should be thankful for writers like Glenn Greenwald, who broke last week’s story, for taking risks to let us know what the government is doing. There are calls for the persecution of Greenwald and the other whistle-blowers and reporters. They should be defended, as their work defends our freedom.” – Ron Paul
The country is being run like a mafia crime family. The Don and his lieutenants operate in secrecy, eliminating their opponents, buying off the press, bribing the police for protection, running the rackets, and collecting their tribute from those that want to do business with them. They go to war against the other families whenever they want to expand their turf. The country has been captured by an organized crime syndicate and it will require an Elliot Ness type character with many strident Constitutionalists to rid the land of these evil, lawless, egocentric men. One of those evil men slithered out of his lair onto the neo-con network – Fox News – to declare Edward Snowden a traitor and spy. Mr. Snowden responded to chicken-hawk Dick “Deferment” Cheney during another freedom of the press in a foreign country event:
“Further, it’s important to bear in mind I’m being called a traitor by men like former Vice President Dick Cheney. This is a man who gave us the warrantless wiretapping scheme as a kind of atrocity warm-up on the way to deceitfully engineering a conflict that has killed over 4,400 and maimed nearly 32,000 Americans, as well as leaving over 100,000 Iraqis dead. Being called a traitor by Dick Cheney is the highest honor you can give an American, and the more panicked talk we hear from people like him, Feinstein, and King, the better off we all are. If they had taught a class on how to be the kind of citizen Dick Cheney worries about, I would have finished high school.“
Who has done more to shred the Constitution and strip us of rights, liberties and freedoms in the last thirteen years – Cheney or Snowden?
This brings us to the question of our times. Who are the patriots and who are the traitors? Those in power have been using the Bernaysian propaganda technique of conscious and intelligent manipulation of the public mind by using the corporate media to convince the distracted ignorant masses that Edward Snowden has committed treason against his country and should be punished for his crime. Interestingly enough, treason is addressed in Article III Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution:
Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort. No Person shall be convicted of Treason unless on the Testimony of two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court.
At the same time it would make sense to define the term patriot:
A person who vigorously supports their country and is prepared to defend it against enemies or detractors.
Does Edward Snowden fit the definition of a traitor as described in the Constitution? The shallow vacuous pundits in the corporate mainstream media complex blather on about treason while focusing their in-depth journalism on pictures of Snowden’s girlfriend from her Facebook page. This is what passes for journalism in America today. A man uncovers the largest spying conspiracy in human history and highly paid mouthpieces for the establishment focus on pole dancing. The last time I checked, Congress hadn’t declared war on anyone, so Snowden isn’t a traitor under that clause. He must be providing aid and comfort to our enemies. Who are the enemies today? They seem to change on a daily basis. I guess since we are considered potential enemies of the state, his revelations were giving the citizens of the United States aid and comfort.
On the other hand, a patriot is someone who vigorously supports their country and is prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice on its behalf against those who would damage or hurt that country. The government of the United States (President, Congress, Judiciary), in conjunction with their corporate, banking and media co-conspirators have knowingly and willingly subverted the Constitution of the United States and have therefore committed treasonous acts that have endangered the rights, freedoms and liberties of the people. A corrupt regime will use their thousands of laws to ensnare anyone in some violation of those laws. But at the end of the day a critical thinking individual knows right from wrong without being told by a government bureaucrat. Edward Snowden is a patriot of the highest order. His act of heroism, knowing he would be despised, attacked and hunted down by the American Thugocracy, is on par with the actions of our Founding Fathers who knew they would be hung if their Revolution failed. A true patriot must be ready to defend his country against a tyrannical government. Edward Snowden just dumped the tea into the Boston Harbor.
Edward Snowden is standing up to the autocratic powers that have seized control of our Constitutional Republic. Other patriots (Thomas Drake, William Binney, J. Kirk Wiebe, Bradley Manning, Julian Assange, Aaron Swartz, Daniel Ellsberg) have sacrificed their careers and lives to reveal the truth about government corruption and malfeasance. Ben Franklin pondered whether we could keep the Republic they had given us. He understood human nature and the likelihood that we as a people would become corrupted, vote for people who promised us the most, and would willingly sacrifice our independence, freedom, liberty and rights for the presumed safety and security of a despotic government:
“In these sentiments, sir, I agree to this Constitution with all its faults; if they are such; because I think a general government necessary for us, and there is no form of government but what may be a blessing to the people if well administered; and I believe, further, that this is likely to be well administered for a course of years, and can only end in despotism, as other forms have done before it, when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic government, being incapable of any other.”
Words of a Traitor?
“…I can’t in good conscience allow the US government to destroy privacy, internet freedom and basic liberties for people around the world with this massive surveillance machine they’re secretly building.” – Edward Snowden
The key terms are “good conscience” and “secretly”. Doing what is right does not mean doing what the authorities declare to be the law. Edward Snowden has a conscience. Barack Obama, Dick Cheney, James Clapper, John McCain, Diane Feinstein, Ben Bernanke, Jon Corzine, Jamie Dimon and the rest of the sociopathic criminal governing class have no conscience. Their souls are blackened with their crimes and misdeeds. In our Bizarro world, Nobel Peace Prize winners slaughter Muslim children indiscriminately with their squadrons of killer drones. Those in power are allowed to operate in the shadows, hiding anything that might incriminate them and secretly spying on millions of citizens without probable cause, while we the people have no right to privacy or freedom from surveillance in this plutocracy. We are all suspects in the eyes of the state and can be terminated at the whim of a government apparatchik:
“Because even if you’re not doing anything wrong you’re being watched and recorded. And the storage capability of these systems increases every year consistently by orders of magnitude … to where it’s getting to the point where you don’t have to have done anything wrong. You simply have to eventually fall under suspicion from somebody – even by a wrong call. And then they can use this system to go back in time and scrutinize every decision you’ve ever made, every friend you’ve ever discussed something with. And attack you on that basis to sort to derive suspicion from an innocent life and paint anyone in the context of a wrongdoer.” – Edward Snowden
Our greatest fear at this point in history is the continued apathy, ignorance, slothfulness, and delusional thinking of our narcissistic populace regarding the most important issue of our time – freedom or tyranny? Will enough people stand and fight the encroaching surveillance state and the evil men pulling the levers? Change will not happen through the ballots box, as the system is rigged and the democratic process has been subverted. It will require patriots taking to the streets and more people like Edward Snowden stepping forward to lead us back out of the abyss into which we have fallen. Time is growing short. Will we rise to the occasion or will we cower and wait until the satanic Eye of Sauron turns in our direction?
“The great fear that I have regarding the outcome for America of these disclosures is that nothing will change. [People] won’t be willing to take the risks necessary to stand up and fight to change things… And in the months ahead, the years ahead, it’s only going to get worse. [The NSA will] say that… because of the crisis, the dangers that we face in the world, some new and unpredicted threat, we need more authority, we need more power, and there will be nothing the people can do at that point to oppose it. And it will be turnkey tyranny.” –Edward Snowden
“I do not expect to see home again.” –Edward Snowden
Over the course of decades we have allowed ourselves to be corrupted by the love of material possessions, the lure of a debt based faux wealth, the money for nothing entitlement promises of dishonorable politicians, the evil of currency debasement, the effectiveness of mass media propaganda, and the belief that we could sacrifice freedom and liberty for promises of safety and security made by a cabal of powerful rich men. Power has been concentrated into the hands of the few, who operate in secrecy and despise the people. They don’t want transparency or open debate. Freedom of speech is nothing but a thorn in their side. They believe they are smarter than the serfs and have no morality when it comes to committing illegal acts and disregarding the Constitution. They are not acting in the public interest. Their abuse of power and looting of the national wealth have put us on a path towards a bloody revolution. This is not a time for conformity, obedience or submission. It’s time to stand up and expose the evil doers. It’s time to rally around those who care about this country. Who are the real traitors? You know the answer. What are you going to do about it?
“The issue boils down to this: do we care about freedom? Do we care about responsibility and accountability? Do we care that our government and media have been bought and paid for? Do we care that average Americans are being looted in order to subsidize the fattest of cats on Wall Street and in government? Do we care? When the chips are down, will we stand up and fight, even if it means standing up against every stripe of fashionable opinion in politics and the media? Times like these have a way of telling us what kind of a people we are, and what kind of country we shall be.” – Ron Paul
WARNING: The National Security Agency is likely recording and storing this communication as part of its unlawful spying programs on all Americans … and people worldwide. The people who created the NSA spying program say that this communication – and any responses – can and will be used against the American people at any time in the future should folks in government decide to go after us for political reasons. And private information in digital communications may be given to big companies by the government.
In the first three parts (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3) of this disheartening look back at a century of central banking, income taxing, military warring, energy depleting and political corrupting, I made a case for why we are in the midst of a financial, commercial, political, social and cultural collapse. In this final installment I’ll give my best estimate as to what happens next and it has a 100% probability of being wrong. There are so many variables involved that it is impossible to predict the exact path to our world’s end. Many people don’t want to hear about the intractable issues or the true reasons for our predicament. They want easy button solutions. They want someone or something to fix their problems. They pray for a technological miracle to save them from decades of irrational myopic decisions. As the domino-like collapse worsens, the feeble minded populace becomes more susceptible to the false promises of tyrants and psychopaths. There are a myriad of thugs, criminals, and autocrats in positions of power who are willing to exploit any means necessary to retain their wealth, power and control. The revelations of governmental malfeasance, un-Constitutional mass espionage of all citizens, and expansion of the Orwellian welfare/warfare surveillance state, from patriots like Julian Assange, Bradley Manning and Edward Snowden has proven beyond a doubt the corrupt establishment are zealously anxious to discard and stomp on the U.S. Constitution in their desire for authoritarian control over our society.
Anyone who denies we are in the midst of an ongoing Crisis that will lead to a collapse of the system as we know it is either a card carrying member of the corrupt establishment, dependent upon the oligarchs for their living, or just one of the willfully ignorant ostriches who choose to put their heads in the sand and hum the Star Spangled Banner as they choose obliviousness to awareness. Thinking is hard. Feeling and believing a storyline is easy.
A moral society must be inhabited by an informed, educated, aware populace and governed by honorable leaders who oversee based upon the nation’s founding principles of liberty, freedom and limited government of, by and for the people. A moral society requires trust, honor, property rights, simple just laws, and the freedom to succeed or fail on your own merits. There is one major problem in creating a true moral society where liberty, freedom, trust, honor and free markets are cherished – human beings. We are a deeply flawed species who are prone to falling prey to the depravities of lust, gluttony, greed, sloth, wrath, envy and pride. Men have always been captivated by the false idols of dominion, power and wealth. The foibles of human nature haven’t changed over the course of history. This is why we have 80 to 100 year cycles driven by the same human strengths and shortcomings revealed throughout recorded history.
Empires rise and fall due to the humanness of their leaders and citizens. The great American Empire is no different. It was created a mere 224 years ago by courageous patriots who risked their wealth and their lives to create a Republic founded upon the principles of freedom, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness; took a dreadful wrong turn in 1913 with the creation of a privately held central bank to control its currency and introduction of an income tax; devolved into an empire after World War II, setting it on a course towards bankruptcy; sealed its fate in 1971 by unleashing power hungry psychopathic elitists to manipulate the monetary and fiscal policies of the nation to enrich themselves; and has now entered the final frenzied phase of pillaging, currency debasement, war mongering, and ransacking of civil liberties. Despite the frantic efforts of the financial elite, their politician puppets, and their media propaganda outlets, collapse of this aristocracy of the moneyed is a mathematical certainty. Faith in the system is rapidly diminishing, as the issuance of debt to create the appearance of growth has reached the point of diminishing returns.
Increase in Real GDP per Dollar of Incremental Debt
“At the root of America’s economic crisis lies a moral crisis: the decline of civic virtue among America’s political and economic elite. A society of markets, laws, and elections is not enough if the rich and powerful fail to behave with respect, honesty, and compassion toward the rest of society and toward the world.” – Jeffrey Sachs
Five Stages of Collapse
The day of reckoning for a century of putting our faith in the wrong people with wrong ideas and evil intentions is upon us. Dmitry Orlov provides a blueprint for the collapse in his book – The Five Stages of Collapse – Survivors’ Toolkit:
Stage 1: Financial Collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings wiped out and access to capital is lost.
Stage 2: Commercial Collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.
Stage 3: Political Collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.
Stage 4: Social Collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost, as social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.
Stage 5: Cultural Collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity.” Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I can die tomorrow.”
The collapse is occurring in fits and starts. The stages of collapse do not necessarily have to occur in order. You can recognize various elements of the first three stages in the United States today. Stage 1 commenced in September 2008 when this Crisis period was catalyzed by the disintegration of the worldwide financial system caused by Wall Street intentionally creating the largest control fraud in world history, with easy money provided by Greenspan/Bernanke, fraudulent mortgage products, fake appraisals, bribing rating agencies to provide AAA ratings to derivatives filled with feces, and having their puppets in the media and political arena provide the propaganda to herd the sheep into the slaughterhouse.
The American people neglected their civic duty to elect leaders who would tell them the truth and represent current and future generations equally. They have neglected the increasing lawlessness of Wall Street, K Street and the corporate suite. The American people have lived in denial about their responsibility for their own financial well-being, willingly delegating it to a government of math challenged politicians who promised trillions more than they could ever deliver. The American people have delayed tackling the dire issues confronting our nation, including: $200 trillion of unfunded liabilities, the military industrial complex creating wars across the globe, militarization of our local police forces, domestic spying on every citizen, allowing mega-corporations and the financial elite to turn our nation from savings based production to debt based consumption, and allowing corporations, the military industrial complex, Wall Street, and shadowy billionaires to pick and control our elected officials. The civic fabric of the country is being torn at the points of extreme vulnerability.
“At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where, during the Unraveling, America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action. Anger at “mistakes we made” will translate into calls for action, regardless of the heightened public risk. It is unlikely that the catalyst will worsen into a full-fledged catastrophe, since the nation will probably find a way to avert the initial danger and stabilize the situation for a while. Yet even if dire consequences are temporarily averted, America will have entered the Fourth Turning.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997
Our Brave New World controllers (bankers, politicians, corporate titans, media moguls, shadowy billionaires) were able to avert a full-fledged catastrophe in the fall of 2008 and spring of 2009 which would have put an end to their reign of destruction. To accept the rightful consequences of their foul actions was intolerable to these obscenely wealthy, despicable men. Their loathsome and vile solutions to a crisis they created have done nothing to relieve the pain and suffering of the average person, while further enriching them, as they continue to gorge on the dying carcass of a once thriving nation. Despite overwhelming public outrage, Congress did as they were instructed by their Wall Street masters and handed over $700 billion of taxpayer funds into Wall Street vaults, under the false threat of systematic collapse. The $800 billion of pork stimulus was injected directly into the veins of corporate campaign contributors. The $3 billion Cash for Clunkers scheme resulted in pumping taxpayer dollars into the government owned union car companies, while driving up the prices of used cars and hurting lower income folks.
Ben Bernanke has peddled the false paradigm of quantitative easing (code for printing money and airlifting it to Wall Street) as benefitting Main Street. Nothing could be further from the truth. He bought $1.3 trillion of toxic mortgage backed securities from his Wall Street owners. He has pumped a total of $2.8 trillion into the hands of Wall Street since September 2008, and is singlehandedly generating $5 billion of risk free profits for these deadbeats by paying them .25% on their reserves. Drug dealer Ben continues to pump $2.8 billion per day into the veins of Wall Street addicts and any hint of tapering the heroin causes the addicts to flail about. Ben should be so proud. He should hang a Mission Accomplished banner whenever he gives a speech. Bank profits reached an all-time record in the 2nd quarter, at $42.2 billion, with 80% of those profits going to the 2% Too Big To Trust Wall Street Mega-Goliath Banks. It’s enough to make a soon to retire, and take a Wall Street job, central banker smile.
“The money rate can, indeed, be kept artificially low only by continuous new injections of currency or bank credit in place of real savings. This can create the illusion of more capital just as the addition of water can create the illusion of more milk. But it is a policy of continuous inflation. It is obviously a process involving cumulative danger. The money rate will rise and a crisis will develop if the inflation is reversed, or merely brought to a halt, or even continued at a diminished rate. Cheap money policies, in short, eventually bring about far more violent oscillations in business than those they are designed to remedy or prevent.” – Henry Hazlitt – 1946
Any serious minded person knew Wall Street had too much power, too much control, and too much influence in 2008 when they crashed our economic system. When something is too big to fail because it will create systematic collapse, you make it smaller. Instead we have allowed our sociopathic rulers to allow these parasitic institutions to get even larger. Just 12 mega-banks control 70% of all the banking assets in the country, with 90% controlled by the top 86 banks. There are approximately 8,000 financial institutions in this country. Wall Street will be congratulating themselves with record compensation of $127 billion and record bonuses of $23 billion for a job well done. It is dangerous work making journal entries relieving loan loss reserves, committing foreclosure fraud, marking your assets to unicorn, making deposits at the Fed, and counting on the Bernanke Put to keep stocks rising. During a supposed recovery from 2009 to 2011, average real income per household grew pitifully by 1.7%, but all the gains accrued to Bernanke’s minions. Top 1% incomes grew by 11.2% while bottom 99% incomes shrunk by 0.4%. Therefore, the top 1% captured 121% of the income gains in the first two years of the recovery. This warped trend has only accelerated since 2011.
The median household income has fallen by $2,400 to $52,100 since the government proclaimed the end of the recession in 2009. Real wages for real people continue to fall. A record 23.1 million households (20% of all households) are receiving food stamps. After four years of “recovery” propaganda, we are left with 2.2 million less people employed (5 million less full time jobs) and 22 million more people on SNAP and SSDI. A record 90.5 million working age Americans are not working, with labor participation at a 35 year low. Ben’s money has not trickled down, but his inflation has fallen like a load of bricks on the heads of the middle class. Bernanke’s QE to infinity constitutes a transfer of purchasing power away from the middle class to the bankers, mega-corporations and .1%. This Cantillon effect means that newly created money is neither distributed evenly nor simultaneously among the population. Some users of money profit from rising prices, and others suffer from them. This results in a transfer of wealth (a hidden tax) from later receivers to earlier receivers of new money. This is why the largest banks and largest corporations are generating the highest profits in history, while the average person sinks further into debt as their real income declines and real living expenses (energy, food, clothing, healthcare, tuition) rise.
Ben works for your owners. Real GDP (using the fake government inflation adjustment) since July 2009 is up by a wretched 5.6%. Revenue growth of the biggest corporations in the world is up by a pathetic 12%. One might wonder how corporate profits could be at record levels with such doleful economic performance. One needs to look no further than Ben’s balance sheet, which has increased by 174%. There appears to be a slight correlation between Ben’s money printing and the 162% increase in the S&P 500 index. With the top 1% owning 42.1% of all financial assets (top .1% own most of this) and the bottom 80% owning only 4.7% of all financial assets, one can clearly see who benefits from QE to infinity.
The key take away from what the ruling class has done since 2008 is they have only temporarily delayed the endgame. Their self-serving exploits have guaranteed that round two of the financial collapse will be epic in proportion and intensity. This Fourth Turning Crisis is ongoing. The linear thinkers who control the levers of power keep promising a return to normalcy and resumption of growth. This is an impossibility – mathematically & socially. Fourth Turnings do not end without the existing social order being swept away in a tsunami of turmoil, violence, suffering and war. Orlov’s stages of collapse will likely occur during the remaining fifteen years of this Crisis. We are deep into Stage 1 as our national Detroitification progresses towards bankruptcy, with an added impetus from our trillion dollar wars of choice in the Middle East. Commercial collapse has begun, as faith in the fantasy of free market capitalism is waning. The race to the bottom with currency debasement around the globe is reaching a tipping point, and the true eternal currencies of gold and silver are being hoarded and shipped from the West to the Far East.
Monetary Base (billions of USD)
When the financial collapse reaches its crescendo, the just in time supply chain, that keeps cheese doodles and cheese whiz on your grocery store shelves, Chinese produced iGadgets in your local Wal-Mart Supercenter, and gasoline flowing out of gas station hoses into your leased Cadillac Escalade, will break down rapidly. The strain of $110 oil is already evident. The fireworks will really get going when ATM machines run dry and the EBT cards stop functioning. Within a week riots and panic will engulf the country.
“At some point we are bound to hear, from across two oceans, the shocking words “Your money is no good here.” Fast forward to a week later: banks are closed, ATMs are out of cash, supermarket shelves are bare and gas stations are starting to run out of fuel. And then something happens: the government announces they have formed a crisis task force, and will nationalize, recapitalize and reopen banks, restoring confidence. The banks reopen, under heavy guard, and thousands of people get arrested for attempting to withdraw their savings. Banks close, riots begin. Next, the government decides that, to jump-start commerce, it will honor deposit guarantees and simply hand out cash. They print and arrange for the cash to be handed out. Now everyone has plenty of cash, but there is still no food in the supermarkets or gasoline at the gas stations because by now the international supply chains have broken down and the delivery pipelines are empty.” – Dmitry Orlov – The Five Stages of Collapse
We are witnessing the beginning stages of political collapse. The government and its leaders are being discredited on a daily basis. The mismanagement of fiscal policy, foreign policy and domestic policy, along with the revelations of the NSA conducting mass surveillance against all Americans has led critical thinking Americans to question the legitimacy of the politicians running the show on behalf of the bankers, corporations and arms dealers. The Gestapo like tactics used by the government in Boston was an early warning sign of what is to come. Government entitlement promises will vaporize, as they did in Detroit, with pension promises worth only ten cents on the dollar. Total social and cultural collapse could resemble the chaotic civil war scenarios playing out in Libya and Syria. The best case scenario would be for a collapse similar to the Soviet Union’s relatively peaceful disintegration into impotent republics. I don’t believe we’ll be this fortunate. The most powerful military empire in world history will not fade away. It will go out in a blaze of glory with a currency collapse, hyper-inflation, and war on a grand scale.
“History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war – class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war. If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil – its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997
In Whom Do You Trust?
“Use of money concentrates trust in a single central authority – the central bank – and, over extended periods of time, central banks always tend to misbehave. Eventually the “print” button on the central banker’s emergency console becomes stuck in the depressed position, flooding the world with worthless notes. People trust that money will remain a store of value, and once the trust is violated a gigantic black hole appears at the very center of society, sucking in peoples’ savings and aspirations along with their sense of self-worth. When those who have become psychologically dependent on money as a yardstick, to be applied to everything and everyone, suddenly find themselves in a world where money means nothing, it is as if they have gone blind; they see shapes but can no longer resolve them into objects. The result is anomie – a sense of unreality – accompanied by deep depression. Money is an addiction – substance-less and unreal, and sets itself up for a severe and lengthy withdrawal.”– Dmitry Orlov – The Five Stages of Collapse
Our modern world revolves around wealth, the appearance of wealth, the false creation of wealth through the issuance of debt, and trust in the bankers and politicians pulling the levers behind the curtain. The entire world economic system is dependent on trusting central bankers whose only response to any crisis is to create more debt. The death knell is ringing loud and clear, but people around the globe are desperately clinging to their normalcy biases and praying to the gods of cognitive dissonance. It seems the only things that matter to our controllers are stock market levels, the continued flow of debt to the plebs, continued doling out of hush money to those on the dole, and of course an endless supply of brown skinned enemies to attack. With every country in the world attempting to the same solution of debasing their currencies, we are rapidly approaching the tipping point. India is the canary in the coal mine.
Government, Household, Financial & Non-Financial Debt (% of GDP)
An exponential growth model built upon cheap plentiful energy and debt creation has its limits, and we’ve reached them. With the depletion of inexpensive, easily accessible energy resources, higher prices will continue to slow world economies. Demographics in the developed world are slowing the global economy as millions approach their old age with little savings due to over consuming during their peak earnings years. Bernanke has already quadrupled his balance sheet with no meaningful benefit to the economy or the financial well-being of the average middle class American. Financial manipulation that creates nothing has masked the rot consuming our economic system. The game has been rigged in favor of the owners, but even a rigged game eventually comes to an end. Americans and Europeans can no longer maintain a façade of wealth by buying knickknacks from China with money they don’t have. The US and Europe are finding that their credit is no longer good in the exporting Far East countries. This is a perilous development, as the West has depended upon foreigners to accommodate its never ending expansion of credit. Without that continual expansion of debt, the Ponzi scheme comes crashing down. As China, Japan and the rest of Asia have balked at buying U.S. Treasuries with negative real yields, the only recourse for Ben has been to monetize the debt through QE and inflation. The doubling of ten year Treasury rates in a matter of three months due to just talk of possibly slowing QE should send shivers down your spine.
We are supposedly five years past the great crisis. Magazine covers proclaimed Bernanke a hero. If we are well past the crisis, why are the extreme emergency measures still in effect? If the economy is growing and jobs are being created, why do we need $85 billion of government debt to be monetized each and every month? Why are the EU, Japan, and China printing even faster than the Fed? The answer is simple. If the debt was not being monetized, it would have to be purchased out in the free market. Purchasers would require an interest rate far above the 2.9% being paid today. The debt levels in the U.S., Europe and Japan are so large that a rise in interest rates of just a few points would explode budget deficits and lead to a worldwide financial collapse. This is why Bernanke and the rest of his central banker brethren are trapped by their own ideology of bubble production. Just the slowing of debt creation will lead to collapse. Bernanke needs a Syrian crisis to postpone the taper talk. Those in control need an endless number of real or false flag crises to provide cover for their printing presses to keep rolling.
There are a couple analogies that apply to our impending doom. The country is like a 224 year old oak tree that has been slowly rotting on the inside due to the insidious diseases of hubris, apathy, selfishness, dependence, delusion, and debasement. The old oak gives an outward appearance of health and stability. Winter has arrived and gale force winds are in the forecast. One gust of wind and the mighty aged oak will topple and come crashing to earth. I think an even more fitting analogy is the sandpile with grains of sand being added day after day. Seven out of ten Americans receive more in government benefits than they pay in taxes. Goliath corporations and the uber-wealthy use the tax code and legislation to syphon hundreds of billions from the national treasury every year. We spend $1 trillion per year on past, current and future wars of choice. Annual interest on the debt we’ve racked up in the last few decades already approaches $400 billion per year. The entire Federal budget totaled $400 billion in 1977. The sandpile grows ever higher, while its instability expands exponentially. One seemingly innocuous grain of sand will ultimately cause the pile to collapse catastrophically. Will it be an unintended consequence of a missile launch into Syria? Will it be a spike in oil prices? Will it be the collapse of one of the EU PIIGS? Will it be an assassination of a political figure or banker? No one knows. But that innocuous grain of sand will trigger the collapse of the entire pile.
Worried people are looking for solutions. They often get angry at me because they don’t think I provide answers to the issues I raise about our corrupt failing system. They want easy answers to intractable problems. Sadly, I’ve come to the conclusion that our system and majority of citizens are too corrupted to change our course through the ballot box or instituting policies along the lines of those proposed by Ron Paul and many other thoughtful liberty minded people. We are experiencing the downside of a representative democracy. Once a person is democratically elected a gulf is created between the electors and the person they elected, as the representative becomes corrupted and bought by moneyed interests. Elected officials become a class unto themselves. The political class grows to be puppets that resemble human beings but are nothing but cogs in a vast corporate run machine, pawns in an enormous game of chess played by powerful vindictive immoral men.
There are no cures for our disease. It’s terminal. Anyone telling you they have the answers is either lying or trying to sell you something. More people and organizations are on the take than are playing by the rules. The producers are being overrun by the parasites. The barbarians are at the gate. An implosion of societal trust is underway. The next stage of this crisis, which I believe will materialize within the next twelve months will try the souls of the weary.
“As the Crisis catalyzes, these fears will rush to the surface, jagged and exposed. Distrustful of some things, individuals will feel that their survival requires them to distrust more things. This behavior could cascade into a sudden downward spiral, an implosion of societal trust. This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market with no buyers. Or it could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997
As a nation we have squandered our inheritance, born of the blood of patriots. A freedom loving, liberty minded, self-responsible, courageous people have allowed ourselves to fall prey to selfishness, apathy, complacency and dependency. Once we allowed our human appetites of greed, power seeking, and control to override the moral responsibility for our own lives and the lives of future unborn generations, collapse was inevitable. The danger now is what happens after the unavoidable collapse. Will the millions of dependency zombies beg for a strong dictator to protect them, provide for them and lead them into further bondage? Or will the spark of liberty and freedom reignite, allowing citizens to throw off the shackles of banker and corporate control? I believe most of the people in this country are good hearted. We are merely pawns in this game of Risk being played by those seeking power, wealth and world domination. We are all trapped in our own forms of normalcy bias. Have I cashed out my retirement funds, sold my suburban house and built a doomstead in the mountains? No I haven’t. Do I second guess myself sometimes? Yes I do. But even the aware have families to support, jobs to go to, bills to pay, laundry to do, lawns to mow, and lives to live. I can’t live in constant fear of what might happen. We only get 80 or so years on this earth, if we’re lucky. The best we can do is leave a positive legacy for our children and their children. A drastic change to our way of life is coming, but most of us are trapped in a cage of our own making.
Each living generation will need to do their part during this Crisis if we are to survive the coming storm. Since no one knows the nature of how the next fifteen years will unfold, it would be wise to at least make basic preparations for food, water, heat and protection. This is easier for some than others, but you don’t have to star on Doomsday Preppers in order to stock up on items that can be purchased at Wal-Mart today, but won’t be available when the global supply chain breaks down. Make sure you have neighbors and family you can rely upon. A small community of like-minded people with varied skills is more likely to succeed in our brave old world than rugged individualists. With no financial means to maintain our globalized world, living locally will take on a new meaning. After much turmoil, chaos, violence, and likely mass casualties the best outcome would be for the Great American Empire to break into regional republics, incapable of waging global war, led by law abiding moral liberty minded individuals, and willing to trade freely and honestly with their fellow republics. Daily life would revert back to a simpler Amish like time. Would that be so bad?
This Fourth Turning could end with a whimper or a bang. There are enough nuclear arms to obliterate the world ten times over. There are enough hubristic egomaniacal psychopathic men in power, that the use of those weapons has a high likelihood of happening. It will be up to the people to not allow this horrific result. I love my country and despise my government. The Declaration of Independence clearly states that when a long train of abuses and usurpations lead toward despotism, it is our right and duty to throw off that government and provide new guards of liberty. My family comes first with my country a close second. I will fight with whatever means necessary to protect my family and do what I can to influence the future course of our country. Time is running out. Will we have the courage, fortitude and wisdom to make the right decisions over the next fifteen years? Will we choose glory or destruction? The fate of our nation hangs in the balance. Are you prepared? Are you ready to fight for your family and your rights?
The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. The nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, the Soviet Union only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale. – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997
There were no Al Qaeda terrorists in Iraq before we invaded. Now it’s swarming with Al Qaeda fighters. Libyan dictator Ghaddafi was fighting Al Qaeda. We killed him. Mubarek kept the radical Islamists under control. We deposed him. Assad is fighting Al Qaeda terrorists. We are about to kill him. When will the American people use their fucking brains and see what is going on.
Do you see any resemblance to Orwell’s description of war in his training manual for American democracy?
“In 1984, there is a perpetual war between Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia, the super-states which emerged from the atomic global war. “The book”, The Theory and Practice of Oligarchic Collectivism by Emmanuel Goldstein, explains that each state is so strong it cannot be defeated, even with the combined forces of two super-states—despite changing alliances. To hide such contradictions, history is re-written to explain that the (new) alliance always was so; the populaces accustomed to doublethink accept it. The war is not fought in Oceanian, Eurasian or Eastasian territory but in a disputed zone comprising the sea and land from Tangiers (northern Africa) to Darwin (Australia) to the Arctic. At the start, Oceania and Eastasia are allies combatting Eurasia in northern Africa.
That alliance ends and Oceania allied with Eurasia fights Eastasia, a change which occurred during the Hate Week dedicated to creating patriotic fervour for the Party’s perpetual war. The public are blind to the change; in mid-sentence an orator changes the name of the enemy from “Eurasia” to “Eastasia” without pause. When the public are enraged at noticing that the wrong flags and posters are displayed they tear them down—thus the origin of the idiom “We’ve always been at war with Eastasia”; later the Party claims to have captured Africa.
“The book” explains that the purpose of the unwinnable, perpetual war is to consume human labour and commodities, hence the economy of a super-state cannot support economic equality (a high standard of life) for every citizen. Goldstein also details an Oceanian strategy of attacking enemy cities with atomic rockets before invasion, yet dismisses it as unfeasible and contrary to the war’s purpose; despite the atomic bombing of cities in the 1950s the super-states stopped such warfare lest it imbalance the powers. The military technology in 1984 differs little from that of the Second World War, yet strategic bomber aeroplanes were replaced with Rocket Bombs, Helicopters were heavily used as weapons of war (while they didn’t figure in WW2 in any form but prototypes) and surface combat units have been all but replaced by immense and unsinkable Floating Fortresses, island-like contraptions concentrating the firepower of a whole naval task force in a single, semi-mobile platform (in the novel one is said to have been anchored between Iceland and the Faroe Islands, suggesting a preference for sea lane interdiction and denial).”
So the American government’s argument that “we must stop Assad because he’s brutally crushing a spontaneous popular uprising” is false. The U.S. started supporting the rebels 5 years before the protests started.
By supporting the rebels, we’re supporting our sworn terrorist enemies.
A War 20 Years In the Making
If there is any doubt about this timeline, please keep in mind that the U.S. and Britain considered attacking Syrians and then blaming it on the Syrian government as an excuse for regime change … 50 years ago (the U.S. just admitted that they did this to Iran) And the U.S. has been planning regime change in Syria for 20 years straight.
The Last “Humanitarian War”
Libya’s Gaddafi claimed that the rebels in that country were actually Al Qaeda.
That claim – believe it or not – has been confirmed.
According to a 2007 report by West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center’s center, the Libyan city of Benghazi was one of Al Qaeda’s main headquarters – and bases for sending Al Qaeda fighters into Iraq – prior to the overthrow of Gaddafi:
“There is no question that al Qaeda’s Libyan franchise, Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, is a part of the opposition,” Bruce Riedel, former CIA officer and a leading expert on terrorism, told Hindustan Times. It has always been Qaddafi’s biggest enemy and its stronghold is Benghazi.
(Incidentally, Gaddafi was on the verge of invading Benghazi in 2011, 4 years after the West Point report cited Benghazi as a hotbed of Al Qaeda terrorists. Gaddafi claimed – rightly it turns out – that Benghazi was an Al Qaeda stronghold and a main source of the Libyan rebellion. But NATO planes stopped him, and protected Benghazi.) Al Qaeda is now largely in control of Libya. Indeed, Al Qaeda flags were flown over the Benghazi courthouse once Gaddafi was toppled. There is a direct connection to Syria. Specifically, CNN, the Telegraph, the Washington Times, and many other mainstream sources confirm that Al Qaeda terrorists from Libya have since flooded into Syria to fight the Assad regime. And the post-Gaddafi Libyan government is also itself a top funder and arms supplier of the Syrian opposition.
The Bottom Line
The bottom line is that there are no few good guys involved in the Syrian war. The solution is not to bomb the country … or to send more arms to the rebels. The solution is to make sure that less weapons – chemical and conventional – get into that tinder box of a country. And to stay the h@!! out of a conflict which has no bearing on our national security.
Below is the last article that I wrote on the original TBP in January, 2010. It was one of my favorites because I was able to use the lyrics to one of my favorite songs and the blend it with one of my favorite movies. It didn’t get much visibility because many of the financial websites didn’t want an article on war. I think it is fitting that I repost it now as our tyrannical government clamps down on our civil liberties and prepares for war with Syria and Iran. Read this article and find out who always benefits from war.
What we’ve got here is failure to communicate.
Some men you just can’t reach…
So, you get what we had here last week,
Which is the way he wants it !
Well, he gets it !
N’ I don’t like it any more than you men.
Luke Jackson, as portrayed by Paul Newman, in Cool Hand Luke is a classic American character. He is a rogue who marches to the beat of his own drummer. His stubbornness, indefatigable spirit, and nonconformity are a symbol of the timeless American spirit. His character is reminiscent of Winston Smith in Orwell’s 1984, Steve McQueen’s Virgil Hilts character in The Great Escape, and Jack Nicholson’s Randall McMurphy character in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest. Captain, played by Strother Martin, makes it his mission to beat the nonconformity out of Luke. No matter how bad he is beaten, he comes back for more. His indomitable fortitude and independent attitude inspires the other prisoners. He escapes from the prison twice and is caught and brought back. Captain thinks that he has finally broken his will as the other prisoners see him beg for mercy, but Luke escapes one final time and is shot dead. In death Luke regained all the adulation he lost among the prisoners and became a mythic hero.
Americans have a choice. They can allow their government to bully and threaten them into conforming to their view of reality like Winston Smith or they can go down swinging like Cool Hand Luke and Randall McMurphy. The cowboy spirit of the Old West is what is required today. We need tough hardened individualists who are willing to say enough is enough. Our government has been corrupted by weak men slithering around the halls of Congress soliciting for money, an evil banking cartel creating fiat money, corporate fascists paying off criminals in Washington DC, and the military industrial complex enforcing Washington’s power across the globe. The country longs for an Andrew Jackson or a Dwight Eisenhower. Instead we are stuck with Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. The citizens of the country have chosen a false security in place of liberty and freedom.
This country achieved greatness because Americans took chances, had the freedom to succeed or fail, picked themselves up when they failed, and lived their lives within a moral framework of fairness and honesty. That flame of independence and freedom is dying out. Americans no longer believe in shared sacrifice, working hard, honoring a sense of civic duty, morality, or modesty. A private banking cartel controls the purse strings and protects its bank owners and its protectors in Congress. The President wages wars across the globe without Constitutional approval from Congress that is required. Agencies of government operate in secret, assassinating foreign enemies, fomenting unrest in other countries, and spying on Americans. Look at the fear we’re feeding. Look at the lives we’re leading.
Look at your young men fighting
Look at your women crying
Look at your young men dying
The way they’ve always done before
Look at the hate we’re breeding
Look at the fear we’re feeding
Look at the lives we’re leading
The way we’ve always done before – Guns N Roses – Civil War
Brainwashed Pride
“It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets.” – Voltaire
My hands are tied
The billions shift from side to side
And the wars go on with brainwashed pride
For the love of God and our human rights
And all these things are swept aside
By bloody hands time can’t deny
And are washed away by your genocide
And history hides the lies of our civil wars – Guns N Roses – Civil War
According to our own Declaration of Independence:
“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”
Do these human rights exist today in our country? Is our system conducive to justice and human dignity? I contend that we have sacrificed our liberty for security. We’ve sacrificed justice for safety. We’ve sacrificed freedom for enslavement by fascist corporatism. We’ve sacrificed peace for never ending war. Your government knows everything you are doing. They can monitor your phone calls. They can monitor your emails. They can watch your every move with satellites. They can brand you a terrorist, break down your front door and take you away. All of this can be done in the name of safety. We have allowed this to happen with virtually no debate or dissent from the masses. These choices have led our once great Republic to the edge of the abyss. As we stare into this abyss we have a choice. If we continue on our current path we are destined for a brutish future of totalitarianism, wars, resource depletion, and violent conflicts across the globe. If we display persistence and never say die attitude of Cool Hand Luke, we have a opportunity to capture this country back from the corrupt ruling privileged class. It may take a Revolution to do so, but so be it. If we choose not to fight, we are fated to wear leg chains for the rest of our incarcerated existence.
When the Legislative branch willingly delegates its Constitutional authority to declare war to the Executive branch, the citizenry has no opportunity to be heard. This is a bastardization of our Constitution as envisioned by our Founding Fathers. We have Presidents who invade other countries in the name of God.
“I am driven with a mission from God. God would tell me, ‘George go and fight these terrorists in Afghanistan’. And I did. And then God would tell me ‘George, go and end the tyranny in Iraq’. And I did.” – George W. Bush
Of course the reason sold to the American public was weapons of mass destruction. I wonder if the American people would have rallied around the flag if they knew President Bush believed he had been instructed by God to invade Iraq. Instead our National Security Advisor was warning of imminent mushroom clouds unless we invaded.
“The problem here is that there will always be some uncertainty about how quickly he can acquire nuclear weapons. But we don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud.” – Condoleezza Rice
A concerted campaign of lies and exaggerations were used to mislead the American public into supporting the invasion of Iraq. This brainwashing effort covered up the fact that plans were being discussed before 9/11. Paul O’Neill, the Treasury Secretary at the outset of the Bush administration, detailed the preparations in his book The Price of Loyalty. At the first meeting of the National Security Council on January 30, 2001, seven months before the 9/11 attacks, Rumsfeld argued, “What we really want to think about is going after Saddam.” Regime change in Iraq, he argued, would allow the U.S. to enhance the situation of the pro-American Kurds, redirect Iraq toward a market economy, and guarantee a favourable oil policy.
Rumsfeld’s recommendation was taken up by Dick Cheney’s National Energy Policy Development Group. This task force decided that enhanced American influence over the production and sale of Middle East oil should be “a primary focus of U.S. international energy policy,” relegating both the development of alternative energy sources and domestic energy conservation measures as meaningless. By March of 2001, according to O’Neill, who was a member of both the NSC and the task force: “Actual plans…. were already being discussed to take over Iraq and occupy it — complete with disposition of oil fields, peacekeeping forces, and war crimes tribunals — carrying forward an unspoken doctrine of pre-emptive war.” O’Neill also reported that, by the time of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the plan for conquering Iraq had been developed and that Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld indeed urged just such an attack at the first National Security Council meeting convened to discuss how the U.S. should react to the 9/11 attack.
“We know he’s been absolutely devoted to trying to acquire nuclear weapons, and we believe he has, in fact, reconstituted nuclear weapons.” – Dick Cheney
The result of these lies and secret plans withheld from the American public has been 5,400 dead American soldiers, 46,000 wounded soldiers, $1 trillion in costs to wage the wars, at least 150,000 civilian casualties, and oil prices that have quadrupled since 2001. The blood of all these innocent people is on the hands of those who lied, hid the truth, and committed genocide. The bitter truth is that power, oil, and money have been the driving forces of American imperialism for the last century.
Feeds the Rich While it Buries the Poor
“When the rich wage war, it’s the poor who die.” – Jean-Paul Sartre
I don’t need your civil war
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor
You’re power hungry sellin’ soldiers
In a human grocery store
Ain’t that fresh
I don’t need your civil war
Look at the shoes you’re filling
Look at the blood we’re spilling
Look at the world we’re killing
The way we’ve always done before
Look in the doubt we’ve wallowed
Look at the leaders we’ve followed
Look at the lies we’ve swallowed
And I don’t want to hear no more – Guns N Roses – Civil War
George Washington, a true American warrior, understood that a large military establishment was dangerous to the Republic. He spent eight years in the field fighting for American Independence. He understood the power of a large dominant military.
“Over grown military establishments are under any form of government inauspicious to liberty, and are to be regarded as particularly hostile to republican liberty.” – George Washington
What most people do not understand is the relationship between the Federal Reserve and war. The Federal Reserve is responsible for every economic difficulty that afflicts our nation. Without a Federal Reserve creating fiat paper currency out of thin air, an empire could not wage continuous war. There is no clearer proof than evaluating major U.S. military conflicts prior to 1913 versus after the creation of the Federal Reserve. Between 1791 and 1913 (122 years) the U.S. engaged in only four major conflicts:
War of 1812
Mexican-American War
Civil War
Spanish-American War
Only the War Between the States can be considered significant and it was fought solely on U.S. soil. The Federal Reserve was created in 1913 by bankers in collusion with politicians in Washington DC. This private central bank, run by a cartel of major banks, has encouraged politicians to wage war. Continuous conflict enriches bankers, as all the money used to wage war is borrowed from them. This may explain why between 1913 and 2010 (97 years) the U.S. has engaged in eleven significant foreign conflicts:
World War I
World War II
Korean War
Vietnam War
Grenada Invasion
Panama Invasion
Gulf War
Somalia
Kosovo War
Afghan War
Iraq War
Above and beyond these actual conflicts, we engaged in a 46 year Cold War with the Soviet Union that involved funding opponents to communism, coups, and assassination of foreign leaders. This Cold War was used as an excuse to station troops in over a 100 foreign countries, creation of the military industrial complex and creation of a secret spy agency, the CIA. Conveniently, when the Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union, a new amorphous war was created by politicians and their bankers. The nebulous War on Terror has been exploited to create the Department of Homeland Security and passage of the Orwellian Patriot Act, which allows the government to violate Americans’ right to privacy in the name of National Security.
The War on Terror is used as the reason for invading foreign countries and using predator drones to blow up whoever our leaders feel is a threat. The cost for the War on Terror thus far has been $2.3 TRILLION. There are trillions more to be wasted because you can never win a war on terror. Who benefits from a never ending war on terror? Every dime of the $2.3 trillion has been borrowed. The beneficiaries of debt are bankers, as they reap billions in profits and pay themselves millions in bonuses. The money that is loaned to the government is then paid to the companies that constitute the military industrial complex. These companies then buy the support of Congress for their new and improved killing machines. This is the circle of death encompassing Washington DC.
Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution says Congress has the power to coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin and to declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water. The corrupt politicians who have controlled the country for the last century have abrogated their power to coin money to a secretive private bank run by crooked bankers. Since 1941 Congress has failed in their Constitutional duty to be the branch of government that commits citizens of the U.S. to war. They have allowed the executive branch to decide when Americans will die and for what causes. The Bush Doctrine, created by Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and Paul Wolfowitz, is policy of preventative war, which holds that the United States should topple foreign regimes that represent a potential or perceived threat to the security of the United States, even if that threat is not immediate; a policy of spreading democracy around the world, especially in the Middle East, as a strategy for combating terrorism; and a willingness to pursue U.S. military interests in a unilateral way. Should the American people follow the doctrine of men who never served a day in the U.S. military and have no difficulty in wiping their blood stained hands all over the U.S. Constitution or a wise Founding Father who risked his life to create that Constitution?
“The Constitution vests the power of declaring war in Congress; therefore no offensive expedition of importance can be undertaken until after they shall have deliberated upon the subject and authorized such a measure.” – George Washington
Ronald Reagan increased military spending dramatically in the 1980s in an effort to bankrupt the Soviet Union. Total spending on defense in the decade reached $3.8 trillion. The collapse of the only country in the world that threatened the U.S. militarily left a vacuum in the 1990s. This peace dividend resulted in military spending decreasing to $3.3 trillion in the 1990s. Defense companies did not fare well in this decade as plants were closed and employees laid off. The 9/11 terrorist attack was a windfall for the military industrial complex, the neo-conservative Constitution burners, and privileged bankers. With no country on earth capable of competing with our immense military machine, the government used fear, loathing and false patriotism to ramp up military spending to $5.3 trillion during the just completed decade. Ask yourself who benefited from these expenditures. Are you safer? Are you better off financially today? Oil prices rose from $20 a barrel to $145 a barrel. The U.S. National debt rose from $5.7 trillion to $12.3 trillion. The financial system collapsed due to the actions of the Federal Reserve, greedy criminal bankers, and self serving corrupt politicians. And still the wars go on.
War is a Racket
“War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small ‘inside’ group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes.” – General Smedley Butler
My hands are tied
For all I’ve seen has changed my mind
But still the wars go on as the years go by
With no love of God or our human rights
and all these dreams are swept aside
By bloody hands of the hypnotized
Who carry the cross of homicide
And history bears the scars of our civil wars
I don’t need your civil war
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor
You’re power hungry sellin’ soldiers
In a human grocery store – Guns N Roses – Civil War
General Smedley Butler, at the time of his death was the most decorated Marine in U.S. history. He was awarded 16 medals, 5 for heroism. His 33 year military career was marked by bravery and brilliance in command. His 1935 book, War is a Racket, detailed how profiteering by corporate fascists encouraged military imperialism by America’s leaders. He condemned the profit motive behind war and described it in no uncertain terms.
“I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class thug for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.” – General Smedley Butler
Smedley Butler another Cool Hand Luke character who was willing to stand up for what he knew to be right, no matter the consequences, is nowhere to be found on the political scene today. Only Ron Paul seems able to summon the courage to speak the truth in Washington DC.
“War is never economically beneficial except for those in position to profit from war expenditures. The moral and constitutional obligations of our representatives in Washington are to protect our liberty, not coddle the world, precipitating no-win wars, while bringing bankruptcy and economic turmoil to our people.” – Ron Paul
Those who profit from war are easy to determine. The chart below details the obscene profit increases of the five biggest defense contractors in the U.S. Profits soared by 205% between 2000 and 2007 to $13.5 billion. With revenue up 155%, it is interesting to note that their work forces only grew by 10%, with two of the firms decreasing their work forces. Luckily, the righteous CEOs of these distributors of death were able to increase their compensation by 173%, ranging from $10 million to $60 million per year. 9/11 has proved to be an extreme windfall for peddlers of war. I’m sure the $463 million spent by the Defense Industry to “lobby” Congressmen over the last 10 years has had no impact on these results. I’m certain Haliburton’s association with Vice President Dick Cheney did not factor in the $3.5 billion profit they generated in 2007 after generating only $500 million of profit in 2000.
War most certainly feeds the rich, while it buries the poor. The people pulling the strings in Washington DC are all rich. George Bush, Dick Cheney, Hank Pauson, Ben Bernanke, Barack Obama, and Tim Geithner are all multi-millionaires. It matters not which party controls the levers of power. The racket is perpetual. The most liberal President since FDR is submitting the largest Defense spending budget in U.S. history, exceeding $700 billion for 2010. The cumulative National Debt of the U.S. from 1791 until 1977 (186 years) totaled $699 billion. We now spend more than that every year on war.
There are no rich dying in the deserts of Iraq and Afghanistan. There are no wealthy Wall Street bankers’ sons or daughters dying in the Middle East. Isn’t it fresh that there are 237 millionaires out of 535 members of Congress and only 10 members of Congress with a son or daughter putting their lives on the line in Iraq or Afghanistan? The facts are that the lower middle class and poor die in a foreign desert like dogs for no good reason. The rich and powerful line their pockets while selling soldiers in a human grocery store. The hypnotized masses are manipulated by government propaganda, ideologue think tanks, and corporate mainstream media. Even the financial crisis benefits the military industrial complex. Before the crisis, military recruiters had tremendous difficulty in convincing enough young people to become cannon fodder for the War on Terror. When 22% of the population is unemployed, there is no such problem. Nationwide, the Air Force reached its highest number of enlistments since 2004, and the Marines Corps was able to do enough recruiting in 2009 to go from 175,000 in its ranks to 202,000. The Army has exceeded its goal of 80,000 enlistments from 2006 to 2008, and it took in more than 70,000 soldiers, with a goal of 65,000 in 2009. The grocery store shelves have been restocked.
Sometimes Nothing can be a Real Cool Hand
“How did we win the election in the year 2000? We talked about a humble foreign policy: No nation-building; don’t police the world. That’s conservative, it’s Republican, it’s pro-American – it follows the founding fathers. And, besides, it follows the Constitution.” – Ron Paul
I find it revealing that three men who occupied the top military position of the nation, led men into battle, and understood the responsibility in committing American citizens to battle were the most reflective and cautious in using the military power of the U.S. in foreign entanglements.
“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired, signifies in the final sense a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.” – Dwight D. Eisenhower
“Although a soldier by profession, I have never felt any sort of fondness for war, and I have never advocated it, except as a means of peace.” – Ulysses S. Grant
“Wars can be prevented just as surely as they can be provoked, and we who fail to prevent them, must share the guilt for the dead.” – Omar N. Bradley
The United States has spent $12.5 trillion on the Military over the last three decades. The U.S. National Debt totals $12.3 trillion. Essentially every dime spent on the military in the last three decades has been borrowed. We police the world using a credit card with an unlimited line of credit. The issuer of the credit card is the Federal Reserve Bank. The systematic destruction the U.S. dollar over the last 97 years has allowed politicians to steal from the middle class and enrich the corporate fascists that control the country. Dr. Edwin Vieira describes the truth of our dilemma:
“Private financial special-interest groups buy politicians; in public office these politicians empower the special-interest groups by statute to manipulate the monetary and banking systems; to the extent that these manipulations succeed, the profits are largely privatized; and to the extent that the manipulations fail, the losses are almost entirely socialized. In either case, the general public is held hostage to the racket, and foots the gargantuan bill for its operation. And the guilty parties escape scot free to steal again, and again, and again.”
We are left a hollowed out economy with a middle class that hasn’t seen their real wages increase in 30 years. Our manufacturing base has been gutted. The only thing this country has produced in the last ten years is killing machines. Is society more likely to advance by producing a computer or a humvee? Is our civilization better off with a plant producing tanks or hybrid cars? Defense spending means the government is pulling away resources from free market uses and instead using them to buy weapons and to pay for soldiers and Blackwater mercenaries. In realistic economic models, defense spending is a direct drain on the economy, reducing efficiency, slowing expansion and costing jobs. Based on the chart below, we’ve made our selection. It is a choice that will surely lead to an economic collapse as the cumulative weight of debt will capsize our ship of state.
We are now at a critical crossroads for our Republic. Normally intelligent Americans must open their eyes to the collusion between politicians, military industrial complex, Federal Reserve and corporate media that have used fear and misinformation to gain power over brainwashed American citizens. The ruling elite fear and despise the American public. The Department of Homeland Security has been given free rein to spy on American citizens, classifies Ron Paul supporters as potential domestic terrorists, considers returning Iraq veterans as a potential threat, and seems to be directing their laser focus toward suppressing domestic civil dissent. U.S. combat troops of Northern Command have been stationed on domestic soil. A list of Executive Orders gives FEMA and the President greater control over many aspects of our lives. Last week Executive Order 13528 created a Council of Governors which will coordinate the Federal and State responses to domestic crisis. The Council will coordinate:
(a)
matters involving the National Guard of the various States;
(b)
homeland defense;
(c)
civil support;
(d)
synchronization and integration of State and Federal military activities in the United States; and
(e)
other matters of mutual interest pertaining to National Guard, homeland defense, and civil support activities.
Are these the actions of a government preparing for a bright future? The ruling class sees their control slipping away. Any honest financial analyst can perceive that the country is headed for catastrophe. Hyperinflation and disintegration of the U.S. dollar are in our future. The consequence will be anger, chaos, and social unrest. The ruling elite are preparing for this by stationing troops in the U.S. and creating the means to squash any threats to their wealth and power. Now is the time to confront these traitors to the Republic. Speaking the truth, questioning authority, practicing civil disobedience, and peaceful protest are necessary to confront the evil doers today. I believe it is time for every concerned American to invoke their right to bear arms. Totalitarian states always act to install gun control laws. The biggest threat to America is from within, not from without.
“How far you can go without destroying from within what you are trying to defend from without?” – Dwight D. Eisenhower
We practice selective annihilation
Of mayors and government officials
For example to create a vacuum
Then we fill that vacuum
As popular war advances
Peace is closer Guns N Roses – Civil War
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” – Mark Twain
I published my predictions for 2011 on January 3, 2011 in my article 2011 – The Year of Catch-22.Humans evidently enjoy being embarrassed by how pitiful they are at predicting the future, because we continue to do it year after year. The mainstream media pundits don’t dare look back at their predictions or the predictions of the Wall Street shills that parade on CNBC and get quoted in the Wall Street Journal, eternally predicting 10% to 15% stock market gains. The multi-millionaire Wall Street strategists like the spawn of the squid, Abbey Joseph Cohen, have used all of their Ivy League brain power to predict at least a 10% stock price gain every year since 1999. The S&P 500 stood at 1,272 on January 6, 1999. As of this writing it currently stands at 1,261. ZERO appreciation over the last twelve years.
The Wall Street mantra of stocks for the long run is beginning to get a little stale. If Abbey Joseph Cohen had been right for the last twelve years, the S&P 500 would be 4,000. For this level of accuracy, she is paid millions. Her 2011 prediction of 1,500 only missed by16%. The S&P 500 began the year at 1,258 and hasn’t budged. The lowest prediction from the Wall Street shysters at the outset of the year was 1,333, with the majority between 1,400 and 1,500.
The same Wall Street clowns are now being quoted in the mainstream media predicting a 10% to 15% increase in stock prices in 2012, despite the fact we are headed back into recession, China’s property bubble has burst, and Europe teeters on the brink of dissolution. They lie on behalf of their Too Big To Tell the Truth employers by declaring stocks undervalued, when honest analysts such as Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman and Robert Shiller truthfully report that stocks are overvalued and will provide pitiful returns over the next year and the next decade.
I will take my chances with a few predictions for 2012 after reviewing my lack of foresight regarding 2011. I declared 2011 the year of Catch-22 because no matter what happened, it would not translate into a positive result for the American people. This was my thesis:
The United States and its leaders are stuck in their own Catch 22. They need the economy to improve in order to generate jobs, but the economy can only improve if people have jobs. They need the economy to recover in order to improve our deficit situation, but if the economy really recovers long term interest rates will increase, further depressing the housing market and increasing the interest expense burden for the US, therefore increasing the deficit. A recovering economy would result in more production and consumption, which would result in more oil consumption driving the price above $100 per barrel, therefore depressing the economy. Americans must save for their retirements as 10,000 Baby Boomers turn 65 every day, but if the savings rate goes back to 10%, the economy will collapse due to lack of consumption. Consumer expenditures account for 71% of GDP and need to revert back to 65% for the US to have a balanced sustainable economy, but a reduction in consumer spending will push the US back into recession, reducing tax revenues and increasing deficits. You can see why Catch 22 is the theme for 2011.
My predictions for 2011 were as follows:
The first half of 2011 is guaranteed to give the appearance of recovery. The lame-duck Congress ”compromise” will pump hundreds of billions of borrowed dollars into the economy. The continuation of unemployment benefits for 99 weeks (supposedly to help employment) and the 2% payroll tax cut will goose consumer spending. Ben Bernanke and his QE2 stimulus for poor Wall Street bankers is pumping $75 billion per month ($3 to $4 billion per day) directly into the stock market. Since Ben gave Wall Street the all clear signal in late August, the NASDAQ has soared 25%. Despite the fact that there are 362,000 less Americans employed than were employed in August 2010, the mainstream media will continue to tout the jobs recovery. The goal of all these efforts is to boost confidence and spending. Everything being done by those in power has the seeds of its own destruction built in. The Catch 22 will assert itself in the 2nd half of 2011.
The payroll tax cut, extension of unemployment benefits and Bernanke’s gift to Wall Street criminal banks did nothing to help real Americans in the real world. The government manipulated GDP has languished between 0.4% and 1.8% in the first three quarters of 2011. Using a true measure of inflation, as detailed by John Williams at www.shadowstats.com, GDP has remained at a recessionary level of -2% to -3%.
Easy Ben accomplished his goal of pumping up the stock market with his QE2 gift to Wall Street bankers during the first six months of 2011, with the S&P 500 peaking at 1,364 in late April. The market began to fall the second Ben stopped handing Jamie Dimon and his friends $4 billion per day, with the market dropping 18% in three months. The market has risen back near the breakeven level for the year based on Ben’s promise to keep interest rates at zero forever and the hope of QE3.
A new perfect storm is brewing for housing in 2011 and will not subside until late 2012. You may have thought those bad mortgages had been all written off. You would be wrong. There will be in excess of $200 billion of adjustable rate mortgages that reset between 2011 and 2012, with in excess of $125 billion being the dreaded Alt-A mortgages. This is a recipe for millions of new foreclosures.
The brainless twits on CNBC will dutifully report the number of completed foreclosure sales plunged by 24% in 2011, giving the impression to their non-critical thinking viewership that all is well on the housing front. What they will fail to point out is that the number of foreclosures in process went up in 2011 and now stands 59% ABOVE the level in 2009 at the height of our recession. The reason that completed foreclosures have fallen is twofold. The criminal Wall Street banks can’t prove they hold the mortgage notes on hundreds of thousands of homes and they have a few legal issues related to the massive robo-signing fraud they committed. Kicking old ladies and Iraq War veterans out into the street using fraudulent documentation has caused the Wall Street Too Evil To Believe Banks some public relations issues. Secondly, the Wall Street Plutocrats have these mortgage loans valued at 100% on their balance sheets due to the FASB gift of mark to fantasy accounting rules. Foreclosing actually reveals their assets to be overvalued by at least 50%. This may explain why millions of Americans are still in their homes after not making a mortgage payment for two years, as detailed by economist Tom Lawler:
Given the number of loans either seriously delinquent or in the process of foreclosure at the beginning of the year, the number of completed foreclosure sales in 2011 is almost absurdly low, reflecting the complete screw-up of the mortgage servicing industry, and the resulting dramatic slowdown in foreclosure resolutions. As of the end of October, 2011 LPS estimated that there were 1.759 million seriously delinquent loans with the average number of days delinquent at 388 (compared to 192 days in January 2008), and there were 2.210 million loans in the foreclosure process that had been on average delinquent for 631 days.
Completed Foreclosure Sales And Short Sales/DILs (thousands, estimates)
2008
2009
2010
2011(E)
Completed Foreclosure Sales
914
949
1,070
815
Owner-occupied
N.A.
N.A.
785
608
Non-owner-occupied
N.A.
N.A.
285
207
Short Sales/DILs
105
270
354
380
Foreclosures plus Short Sales/DILs
1,019
1,219
1,424
1,195
Outstanding first liens:
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Seriously Delinquent (90+)
1,016
1,983
3,061
2,168
In Process of Foreclosure
860
1,386
2,110
2,203
The concerted effort to not complete foreclosures did nothing to slow the continued descent in home prices. As you can see in the chart below from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/, real home prices will have fallen another 5% in 2011. Obama and his minions threw $50 billion of your tax dollars at the housing market in 2009 – 2010 with tax credits, loan modification programs, homebuilder tax loss carry-backs, and a myriad of other Keynesian claptrap solutions. They succeeded in pissing your tax dollars down the toilet as prices have declined another 12% in the last 18 months. Prices have fallen 42% nationally since 2006. I wonder who missed the boat on that development?
“We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit.” – Ben Bernanke – July 2005
There are approximately 48.5 million homes with mortgages in the United States and 10.7 million of them have negative equity. Another 2.4 million have less than 5% equity. Considering it costs more than 5% in closing costs to sell a house that means 27% of home occupiers with a mortgage are trapped like rats in a cage. With 2.2 million foreclosures still in the pipeline and a looming recession, home prices will continue to fall another 10% to 20% over the next two years and one third of all home occupiers will be underwater. That sounds like a recipe for 10% to 15% stock market gains.
Quantitative easing has benefited only Wall Street bankers and the 1% wealthiest Americans. The $1.4 trillion of toxic mortgage backed securities on The Fed’s balance sheet are worth less than $700 billion. How will they unload this toxic waste? The Treasuries they have bought drop in value as interest rates rise. Quantitative easing’s Catch 22 is that it can never be unwound without destroying the Fed and the US economy.
Bennie and his Inkjets did a bang up job in 2011. He was able to expand his balance sheet from $2.47 trillion to $2.95 trillion in twelve short months. According to Ben and his Federal Reserve friends, increasing your balance sheet by $480 billion isn’t really printing money out of thin air and handing it to their Wall Street owners for free, so they can prop up the stock market and enrich their executives. Ben is now leveraged 57 to 1. He should move to Europe, where this level of leverage is commonplace. In comparison, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were leveraged 40 to 1 when they went belly up.
There is absolutely no way that Ben Bernanke could ever reduce the Federal Reserve balance sheet to the pre-crisis level without destroying the U.S. economy. He knows that and will never sell off those toxic mortgage assets. Not only won’t he reduce the Fed balance sheet, but by mid-2012 he will institute QE3 and buy another $600 billion of mortgage debt. His hubris knows no bounds, as his reckless illegal actions thus far have not driven interest rates sky high – YET. He has only destroyed the finances of senior citizens, savers and people who eat food and use gasoline. He will surely go down in history, but not the way he envisions.
The rise in oil to $91 a barrel will not be a top. The Catch-22 of a declining dollar is that prices of all imported goods go up. If the dollar falls another 10%, the price of oil will rise above $120 a barrel and push the economy back into recession.
As Bernanke printed like a drunken sailor during the first six months of 2011, the USD fell by 9% and the price of oil did exactly as expected, rising to a peak above $125. The NATO “intervention” in Libya also added a few bucks to the price of a barrel of sweet crude.
DXY
The complete implosion of Europe and the ensuing weakness of the Euro have given the false impression that the U.S. dollar is a safe haven. The USD has regained its losses and will end the year exactly as it started versus a Euro heavy basket of world currencies. With annual deficits equaling 10% of GDP, a national debt now exceeding 100% of GDP, and Ben Bernanke in perpetual printing mode, the USD is destined to reach its intrinsic value of zero. With Brent crude still above $108 a barrel, employment still weak, and double digit food and energy inflation slowing consumer spending, the ECRI knows a recession during 2012 is baked in the cake.
The imminent collapse of the European Union as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are effectively bankrupt. Spain is the size of the other three countries combined and has a 20% unemployment rate. The Germans are losing patience with these spendthrift countries. Debt does matter.
It seems I was wrong about Europe. It turned out to be much worse than anyone envisioned, with Italy now the likely fuse that blows the whole thing sky high. The ECB has made Ben Bernanke look like a lightweight by increasing their balance sheet by 44% to over $3.5 trillion in a futile effort to solve a debt crisis with more debt. It seems central bankers are programmed to print until the very end (see Weimar). The European Union will not survive 2012. Too many countries, too much government debt, too many zombie banks, too many bureaucrats, too much austerity rammed down the throats of citizens, and not enough honesty or reality based solutions.
State and local governments were able to put off hard choices for another year, as Washington DC handed out hundreds of billions in pork. California will have a $19 billion budget deficit; Illinois will have a $17 billion budget deficit; New Jersey will have a $10.5 billion budget deficit; New York will have a $9 billion budget deficit. A US Congress filled with Tea Party newcomers will refuse to bailout these spendthrift states. Substantial government employee layoffs are a lock.
State and local governments have laid off 535,000 workers since 2008. With borrowed Federal government stimulus handouts evaporating into thin air during 2011 – 2012, this total will reach 800,000 by the end of the next year. The U.S. Postal Service will do their part by cutting 28,000 jobs in 2012, even though they need to cut 100,000. States and municipalities based their budgets on the revenues produced by the fake debt driven housing boom from 2003 – 2007. The tax revenue dried up, but the union jobs added are a gift that keeps on costing taxpayers billions. States and localities can’t print, so layoffs will continue.
There is a growing probability that China will experience a hard landing as their own quantitative easing has resulted in inflation surging to a 28 month high of 5.1%, with food inflation skyrocketing to 11.7%. Poor families spend up to half of their income on food. Rapidly rising prices severely burden poor people and can spark civil unrest if too many of them can’t afford food.
According to official government statistics China’s economy continued to boom in 2011. But, of course Chinese government reports make the BLS look honest. The fact is the Chinese stock market has fallen 28% since April as the property bubble deflates. If their economy has truly grown at an annual rate of 8% to 10% over the last five years, why is their stock market down 62% from its 2007 high?
SHANGHAI INDEX
The price inflation in food and energy prices, along with the property bubble bursting has led to breakouts of civil unrest across China. China’s two biggest markets – Europe & the United States – are in or near recession and are buying less of their crap. They can only build so many vacant cities and shopping malls to create the appearance of growth. The hard landing is about to get harder in 2012.
The Tea Party members of Congress are likely to cause as much trouble for Republicans as Democrats. If they decide to make a stand on raising the debt ceiling early in 2011, all hell could break loose in the debt and stock markets.
It seems I got the timing wrong on this prediction, but the August showdown was a doozy. The threat of a government shutdown resulted in the stock market collapsing by 18% in a matter of weeks in August. Our beloved politicians then came up with another bullshit non-solution by creating a commission which, after months of negotiations, failed to do anything. The $1.2 trillion of automatic spending cuts will never happen. The slime that inhabit the hallowed halls of Congress will pretend to cut, while actually increasing spending. And so it goes. The stock market has risen from its October low based on Easy Ben’s assurances to keep interest rates at zero forever and the anticipation of QE3 in the new year.
Will the consensus forecast of a growing economy, rising corporate profits, 10% to 15% stock market gains, 2 million new jobs, and a housing recovery come true in 2011? No it will not. By mid-year confidence in Ben’s master plan will wane.
Corporate profits did rise, mostly due to Ben Bernanke providing free money to the Wall Street Mega-Banks so they could generate risk free profits on the backs of senior citizens getting .15% on their savings. It also helps when the same Wall Street banks can make accounting entries declaring that future loan losses will be minimal and the toxic mortgages on their books aren’t really worthless. Who knew accountants could do so much for America? Abbey Joseph Cohen only missed her stock market projection by a smidgeon. The S&P 500 is essentially unchanged for the year, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 will finish in the red.
The country did not add 2 million new jobs. It added 1.4 to 1.5 new jobs. Too bad the working age population went up by 1.7 million people. But our friends at the BLS, when they aren’t manipulating away the inflation that real people in the real world experience every day, have the gall to declare the unemployment rate has fallen from 9.8% to 8.6% in the last twelve months. How could this be you might ask, since the working age population went up by more than the number of people who found jobs. Easy if you are a BLS government drone. Everyone knows that things are so good out in the real world that 1.8 million Americans decided to kick back and enjoy the good life by leaving the workforce. It wasn’t because they gave up looking for the jobs that were shipped to the Far East by the mega-corporations making record profits and paying record bonuses to their executives. It’s just a rumor that those long lines at food banks around the country have a few of these “lucky” non-members of the workforce in them.
The housing recovery is just around the corner. Larry Yun, chief liar for the National Association of Realtors, assures us that it’s the best time to buy. We all know that the NAR is a bastion of honesty and truth. Just because they reported 3 MILLION more home sales than actually occurred between 2007 and 2010, you can’t scorn, ignore and treat everything they say as a bald faced lie. If Larry says the housing recovery has arrived, it must be true.
Revised
Previous
% Change
2007
5,022,000
5,652,000
-11.1%
2008
4,124,000
4,913,000
-16.1%
2009
4,334,000
5,156,000
-15.9%
2010
4,182,000
4,907,000
-14.8%
When the pundits on CNBC sum up the year, they will not be touting the fact that gasoline prices went up 10% in the past year and the average price for a gallon of gas was the highest in U.S. history. They will not be proclaiming that even the government manipulated CPI shows food prices up 6% and clothing prices up 5% in the last year. I’m sure glad Ben Bernanke doesn’t see any inflation on his radar. Maybe he should ask his chauffer about his inflation. Lastly, the stocks for the long run crowd will not be yakking about the fact that gold finished up 10% for the year and has been up for TEN consecutive years. I wonder whether the numbskulls on CNBC can look at the chart below and figure out why gold is up ten years in a row. The national debt reaching $20 trillion by 2015 is a given. I wonder whether the price of gold will be higher. Maybe I’ll give Abbey Joseph Cohen a call and ask for her prediction.
Overall, my assessment of what would happen in 2011 wasn’t too far off. But, it was the things that I and virtually everyone on the planet missed that will reverberate in 2012 and for the next ten years. Our 20 year Crisis deepened, became more violent, and clearly revealed that the establishment will use all their power to put down protests and crush opposition to their corrupt crony capitalistic policies. The major developments I missed regarding 2011 included:
The self-immolation of a young Tunisian man set off revolutions around the globe, toppling U.S. supported dictators in Tunisia and Egypt. Dictators attempted to retain power by killing citizens by the thousands. The self-immolation of a man in New Hampshire in front of a courthouse was completely ignored by the mainstream media. I wonder why.
The Arab Spring has resulted in revolutions in Yemen, Bahrain, Syria and Libya. Depending upon how much oil was at stake, the U.S. has supported the dictator or the people whenever it suited them. This is called democratic principles.
Young people across the U.S. were inspired by the Arab Spring and began to Occupy Wall Street and many other streets in 97 other U.S. cities this past Fall. The spirit of these protests was against Wall Street criminality, Washington corruption, and corporate malfeasance. Peaceful civil disobedience by citizens of this country was met with beatings, tear gas, mass arrests and bulldozing their encampments. Students were maced while sitting in front of a college building. Ultimately a Department of Homeland Security coordinated attack on all the protests squashed the movement. The American people were too distracted by Dancing With the Stars and the latest iGadget to notice. The corporate media did their part by spewing misinformation and propaganda about the Occupy Movement, while the Wall Street Elite giggled with delight from their NYC penthouse suites.
Shockingly, no bankers were prosecuted despite clear unequivocal evidence of the greatest financial fraud in world history. The former head of Goldman Sachs, U.S. Senator, and NJ Governor continues to eat caviar and drink champagne in his glorious mansion after stealing $1.2 billion directly from customers’ accounts. These funds now reside in the pocket of Jamie Dimon and his upstanding JP Morgan institution.
The Federal government methodically moved closer to a totalitarian regime by passing legislation that will enable them to imprison U.S. citizens without charges. The only remaining area that has allowed critical thinking Americans to find the truth – the Internet – is on the verge of being locked down by the Feds. Pending legislation will allow them to shut down any website that may inconvenience their agenda. We inch ever closer to Orwell’s vision of the future.
No one in the MSM or government anticipated that the only truthful, honest, forthright politician in Washington D.C. – Ron Paul – could possibly win the Iowa caucus. His message of freedom, liberty, self reliance, and non-interventionism has struck a chord with young people and those capable of distinguishing between MSM propaganda and reality. The establishment is terrified of Ron Paul and is now on a mission to destroy him. What they don’t realize is their time is coming to an end. The existing social order will be swept away in a violent manner. The youth of this country will lead the charge. 2012 should be a real doozy.
I’ll take another shot at predicting the unpredictable with my next article: 2012 – The Year of Living Dangerously.
“We are the generation that will win the war on the energy problem and in that process, rebuild the unity and confidence of America.”– President Jimmy Carter, 1979
“We have it in our power to act right here, right now. I propose $6 billion in tax cuts and research and developments to encourage innovation, renewable energy, fuel-efficient cars, and energy-efficient homes.”– President Bill Clinton, 1998
“I think that in ten years, we can reduce our dependence so that we no longer have to import oil from the Middle East or Venezuela. I think that’s about a realistic time frame…That’s why I’ve focused on putting resources into solar, wind, biodiesel, geothermal. These have been priorities of mine since I got to the Senate, and it is absolutely critical that we develop a high fuel efficient car that’s built not in Japan and not in South Korea, but built here in the United States of America.”– President Barack Obama, 2008
“We don’t have to wait on OPEC anymore. We don’t have to let them hold us hostage. America’s got the energy. Let’s have American energy independence.”-Rick Perry, CNN Debate, October 18
“We must become independent from foreign sources of oil. This will mean a combination of efforts related to conservation and efficiency measures, developing alternative sources of energy like biodiesel, ethanol, nuclear, and coal gasification, and finding more domestic sources of oil such as in ANWR or the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS).” – Mitt Romney
PRICE OF A BARREL OF BRENT OIL 2011 – $114.00
It is too bad that our 255 million cars can’t run on hot air. American presidents have propagated the Big Lie of energy independence for the last three decades. The Democrats have lied about green energy solutions and the Republicans have lied about domestic sources saving the day. These deceitful politicians put the country at risk as they misinform and mislead the non-thinking American public. They have been declaring our energy independence for 30 years, but we import three times as much oil today as we did in the early 1980’s. The CPI has gone up 350% since 1978, but the price of a barrel of oil has risen 800% over the same time frame. Today, I hear the same mindless fabrications from politicians and pundits about our ability to become energy independent. Any critical thinking analysis of the hard facts reveals that the United States will grow increasingly dependent upon other countries to supply our energy needs from a dwindling and harder to access supply of oil and natural gas. The fantasy world of plug in cars, corn driven vehicles and solar energy running our manufacturing plants is a castle in the sky flight of imagination. The linear thinking academic crowd believes a technological miracle will save us, when it is evident technology fails without infinite quantities of cheap oil.
I know the chart below requires some time to grasp, but I’m sure the average American can take five minutes away from watching Jersey Shore, Dancing with the Stars, or the latest update of the Kardashian saga to understand why the propaganda about energy independence is nothing but falsehoods. You have U.S. energy demand by sector on the right and the energy source by fuel on the left. Total U.S. energy use is nearly 100 quadrillion Btu. In physical energy terms, 1 quad represents 172 million barrels of oil (8 to 9 days of U.S. oil use), 50 million tons of coal (enough to generate about 2% of annual U.S. electricity use), or 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (about 4% of annual U.S. natural gas use).
Please note that 37% of our energy source is petroleum, which supplies 95% of the energy for our transportation sector. That means your car and the millions of 18 wheelers that deliver your food to your grocery stores and electronic gadgets to your Best Buy. You can’t fill up your SUV with coal, natural gas, nuclear energy or sunshine. Without the 7 billion barrels of oil we use every year, our just in time mall centric suburban sprawl society would come to a grinding halt. There is no substitute for cheap plentiful oil anywhere in sight. The government sponsored ethanol boondoggle has already driven food prices higher, while requiring more energy to produce than it generates. Only a government “solution” could raise food prices, reduce gas mileage, and bankrupt hundreds of companies in an effort to reduce our dependence on oil. Natural gas as a transportation fuel supplies 2% of our needs. The cost to retro-fit 160,000 service stations across the country to supply natural gas as a fuel for the non-existent natural gas automobiles would be a fool’s errand and take at least a decade to implement.
The green energy Nazis despise coal and nuclear power, which account for 31% of our energy supply. They want to phase coal out. They aren’t too fond of fracking either, so there goes another 23% of our supply. You might be able to make out that itsy bitsy green circle with the 7% of our supply from renewable energy. And more than half of that energy is supplied by hydro power. Less than 2% of our energy needs are met by solar and wind. For some perspective, we need to use the equivalent of 17 billion barrels of oil per year to run our society and solar and wind supplies the equivalent energy of about 300 million barrels of that total. I think our green energy dreams will come up just a smidgen short of meeting our demands. Nothing can replace oil as the lifeblood of our culture and there is no domestic supply source which will eliminate or even reduce our dependence upon the 10 million barrels per day we import from foreign countries. There are some hard truths that are purposefully ignored by those who want to mislead the public about the grim consequences of peak cheap oil:
The earth is finite. The amount of oil within the crust of the earth is finite. As we drain 32 billion barrels of oil from the earth every year, there is less remaining within the earth. We have drained the cheapest and easiest to reach 1.4 trillion barrels from the earth since the mid 1800s. The remaining recoverable 1.4 trillion barrels will be expensive and hard to reach.
The United States has about 2% of the world’s proven oil and gas reserves, but consumes 22% of the world’s oil production and 27% of the world’s natural gas production.
Demand for oil will continue to rise no matter what the United States does, as the developing world consumption far outstrips U.S. consumption. Oil is fungible and will be sold to the highest bidder.
The concept of energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) is beyond the grasp of politicians and drill, drill, drill pundits. EROEI is the ratio of the amount of usable energy acquired from a particular energy resource to the amount of energy expended to obtain that energy resource. When the EROEI of a resource is less than or equal to one, that energy source becomes an “energy sink”, and can no longer be used as a primary source of energy. Once it requires 1.1 barrels of oil to obtain a barrel of oil, the gig is up.
There is a negative feedback loop that revolves around oil supply, oil price and economic growth. As demand continues to rise and supply is more difficult to access, prices will rise. Since oil is an essential ingredient in every aspect of our lives, once the price reaches $120 to $150 a barrel economic growth goes into reverse. Demand crashes and investment in new sources of energy dries up. Rinse and repeat.
Finite World
World oil production peaked in 2005 has been flat since then, despite a continuous stream of promises from Saudi Arabia that they are on the verge of increasing production. The chart below from the U.S. Energy Information Administration propagates the standard fabrications about energy supplies. Even though worldwide oil production has clearly peaked, the oil industry PR whores and government agencies continue to project substantial production growth in the future. The mainstream media trots out Daniel Yergin whenever it wants to calm the masses, despite his track record of being 100% wrong 100% of the time. The brilliance of his July, 2005 Op-Ed shines through:
“Prices around $60 a barrel, driven by high demand growth, are fueling the fear of imminent shortage — that the world is going to begin running out of oil in five or 10 years. This shortage, it is argued, will be amplified by the substantial and growing demand from two giants: China and India. There will be a large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply in the next few years. Between 2004 and 2010, capacity to produce oil (not actual production) could grow by 16 million barrels a day — from 85 million barrels per day to 101 million barrels a day — a 20 percent increase. Such growth over the next few years would relieve the current pressure on supply and demand.”
Oil production capacity has not grown by one barrel since Yergin wrote this propaganda piece. This is despite the fact that prices have almost doubled, which should have spurred production. The current energy independence false storyline – the Bakken Formation – has gone from production of 10,000 barrels per day in 2003 to 400,000 barrels per day now, while the hundreds of millions invested in developing the Canadian tar sands have increased production by 50% since 2005. Despite these substantial increases in output, worldwide production has remained flat as existing wells deplete at the same rate that new production is brought online.
The facts are there is approximately 1.4 trillion barrels of recoverable oil left in the crust of the earth. We currently suck 32 billion barrels per year out of the earth. This means we have 44 years of oil left, at current consumption levels. But we know demand is growing from the developing world. Taking this fact into consideration, we have between 35 and 40 years worth of recoverable oil left on the planet. That is not a long time. Additionally, the last 1.4 trillion barrels will much more difficult and costly to extract than the first 1.4 trillion barrels. The remaining oil is miles under the ocean floor, trapped in shale and tar sands, and in the arctic. Despite these hard facts, governmental agencies and politicians continue to paint a rosy picture about our energy future. I watched in stunned amazement last week as five bozos on the McLaughlin Group news program unanimously proclaimed the U.S. would become a net exporter of oil in the coming decade. Do these supposedly intelligent people not understand the basic economics of supply, demand and price?
It seems the governmental organizations always paint the future in the most optimistic terms, despite all facts pointing to a contrary outcome. The EIA predicts with a straight face that oil production will rise to 110 million barrels per day, while the price of a barrel of oil remains in the current $100 to $125 per barrel range. Non-OPEC production has been in decline since 2004, but the EIA miraculously predicts a 15% increase in production over the next 25 years. OPEC production has been flat since 2005, but the EIA is confident their 50 year old oil fields will ramp up production by 25% in the next 25 years. Does the EIA consider whether OPEC even wants to increase production? It would appear that constrained supply and higher prices would be quite beneficial to the OPEC countries. And then of course there is the unconventional oil that is supposed to increase from 4 million barrels per day to 13 million barrels per day, a mere 325% increase with no upward impact on prices. These guys would make a BLS government drone blush with the utter ridiculousness of their predictions.
The picture below is an excellent representation of how the easy to access oil and gas of the earth have been tapped. They were close to the surface. The remaining oil and gas is deeper and trapped within shale and sand. The new technology for extracting gas from shale has concerns regarding whether fracking and disposal of waste water can be done safely, especially near highly populated areas. The relationship between fracking and earthquakes could also prove to be problematic. The wells also have rapid decline rates. Add a mile of ocean to the picture below and you have some really expensive to access oil and potential for disaster, as witnessed with the Deep Water Horizon.
The EIA projects natural gas supply to grow by 10% between now and 2035 due to a 300% increase in shale gas supply. It seems the EIA believes the fantasy of 8 Saudi Arabia’s in the Bakken formation of North Dakota and decades of gas within the Marcellus Shale. These fantasies have been peddled by the natural gas industry in order to get support for their fracking efforts. This false storyline is damaging to the long-term planning that should be taking place now to alleviate the energy scarcity that is our future. In 2006 the EIA reported the possibility of 500 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken formation, based on guesswork. The U.S. Geological Survey has since scaled this back ever so slightly to 3.65 billion barrels, which is six months of U.S. consumption. The deceptions peddled regarding Marcellus shale are also colliding with reality. The U.S. Geological Survey recently produced an estimate of Marcellus Shale resources, which will cause the EIA to reduce its estimate of shale gas reserves for the Marcellus Shale by 80%. The price of natural gas is currently $3.54 MMBtu, down from $13 a few years ago. Extracting natural gas from shale has high capital costs of land, drilling and completion. It is not economically feasible below $6 MMBtu.
Based on the known facts and a realistic view of the future, there will be less supply of oil and natural gas as time goes on. We can already see the impact of these facts today. Even though Europe and the U.S. are in recession, the price of oil continues to rise. The developing world continues to demand more oil and the supply is stagnant. Stunts like withdrawing oil from the Strategic Reserve are foolish and politically motivated. Is the world then running out of oil then? No, but any increase in future global oil production will be modestly incremental and production could be thrown off course by any number of possible events, from an Israeli attack on Iran to (another, but successful this time) al Qaida attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil refinery. Any forecast regarding future oil production and prices isn’t worth the paper it is written on unless consideration to wars, revolutions and terrorism are factored into the equation.
We Don’t Matter
Americans like to think we are the center of the universe. Those who propagate the misinformation about U.S. energy independence are clearly math challenged. The total proven oil reserves in the world total 1.4 trillion barrels and the United States has 22 billion barrels of that total, or 1.6% of the world’s oil. The U.S. burns 7 billion barrels per year, so we have enough oil to survive for three whole years. The U.S. consumes 22% of the world’s oil despite having 4.5% of the world’s population and less than 2% of the world’s oil. Do these facts lead you to the conclusion the United States will be exporting oil in the near future?
When you hear the pundits breathtakingly describe our vast natural gas resources you would think we are the dominant player in this market. Not quite. The United States has 4% of the world’s natural gas reserves. Predictably we consume 22% of the world’s natural gas. Russia controls 25% of the world’s natural gas reserves, with the Middle East countries controlling 40% of the world’s reserves. The pundits can hype our “vast” supplies of natural gas, but the facts clearly reveal it is nothing but hype.
The U.S. is consuming less oil than it was in 2005. U.S. consumption is not the crucial factor in determining the price of oil today and our consumption will matter even less in the future. Emerging market countries, led by China and India, will be the driving force in oil demand in the coming decades. According to the IEA, “Non-OECD [emerging markets] account for 90% of population growth, 70% of the increase in economic output and 90% of energy demand growth over the period from 2010 to 2035.”
This demand is being driven by the growth in vehicles in emerging markets. The U.S. market has reached a saturation point, but China, India and the rest of the world are just beginning their love affairs with the automobile. The accumulation of facts regarding both supply and demand should even convince the most brainless CNBC talking head that the price of oil will continue to rise. The 2008 peak price of $145 per barrel will not hold. The tried and true American method of ignoring problems until they reach crisis proportions will bite us in the ass once again.
Slippery Road Ahead
The concept of EROI is incomprehensible to the peak oil deniers. When Larry Kudlow or one of the other drill, drill, drill morons proclaims the vast amount of oil in North Dakota shale and in Alberta, Canada tar sands, they completely ignore the concept of EROI. Some estimates conclude there are 5 trillion barrels of oil left in the earth. But, only 1.4 trillion barrels are considered recoverable. This is because the other 3.6 trillion barrels would require the expenditure of more energy to retrieve than they can deliver. Therefore, it is not practical to extract. When oil was originally discovered, it took on average one barrel of oil to find, extract, and process about 100 barrels of oil. That ratio has declined steadily over the last century to about three barrels gained for one barrel used up in the U.S. and about ten for one in Saudi Arabia.
The chart below clearly shows the sources of energy which have the highest energy return for energy invested. I don’t think I’ve heard Obama or the Republican candidates calling for a national investment in hydro-power even though it is hugely efficient. The dreams of the green energy crowd are shattered by the fact that biodiesel, ethanol and solar require as much energy to create as they produce. Tar sands and shale oil aren’t much more energy efficient. It’s too bad Obama and his minions hate dirty coal, because has the best return on energy invested among all the practical sources.
Worse than the peak oil deniers are those who pretend that oil isn’t really that important to our society. They declare that technology will save the day, when in reality technology can’t function without oil. Without plentiful cheap oil our technologically driven civilization crashes. We are addicted to oil. Americans consume petroleum products at a rate of three-and-a-half gallons of oil and more than 250 cubic feet of natural gas per day each. You might be interested in a partial list of products that require petroleum to be produced.
Solvents
Diesel fuel
Motor Oil
Bearing Grease
Ink
Floor Wax
Ballpoint Pens
Football Cleats
Upholstery
Sweaters
Boats
Insecticides
Bicycle Tires
Sports Car Bodies
Nail Polish
Fishing lures
Dresses
Tires
Golf Bags
Perfumes
Cassettes
Dishwasher parts
Tool Boxes
Shoe Polish
Motorcycle Helmet
Caulking
Petroleum Jelly
Transparent Tape
CD Player
Faucet Washers
Antiseptics
Clothesline
Curtains
Food Preservatives
Basketballs
Soap
Vitamin Capsules
Antihistamines
Purses
Shoes
Dashboards
Cortisone
Deodorant
Footballs
Putty
Dyes
Panty Hose
Refrigerant
Percolators
Life Jackets
Rubbing Alcohol
Linings
Skis
TV Cabinets
Shag Rugs
Electrician’s Tape
Tool Racks
Car Battery Cases
Epoxy
Paint
Mops
Slacks
Insect Repellent
Oil Filters
Umbrellas
Yarn
Fertilizers
Hair Coloring
Roofing
Toilet Seats
Fishing Rods
Lipstick
Denture Adhesive
Linoleum
Ice Cube Trays
Synthetic Rubber
Speakers
Plastic Wood
Electric Blankets
Glycerin
Tennis Rackets
Rubber Cement
Fishing Boots
Dice
Nylon Rope
Candles
Trash Bags
House Paint
Water Pipes
Hand Lotion
Roller Skates
Surf Boards
Shampoo
Wheels
Paint Rollers
Shower Curtains
Guitar Strings
Luggage
Aspirin
Safety Glasses
Antifreeze
Football Helmets
Awnings
Eyeglasses
Clothes
Toothbrushes
Ice Chests
Footballs
Combs
CD’s & DVD’s
Paint Brushes
Detergents
Vaporizers
Balloons
Sun Glasses
Tents
Heart Valves
Crayons
Parachutes
Telephones
Enamel
Pillows
Dishes
Cameras
Anesthetics
Artificial Turf
Artificial limbs
Bandages
Dentures
Model Cars
Folding Doors
Hair Curlers
Cold cream
Movie film
Soft Contact lenses
Drinking Cups
Fan Belts
Car Enamel
Shaving Cream
Ammonia
Refrigerators
Golf Balls
Toothpaste
Gasoline
The propaganda blared at the impressionable willfully ignorant American public has worked wonders. The vast majority of Americans have no clue they have entered a world of energy scarcity, a world where the average person is poorer and barely able to afford the basic necessities of life. This is borne out in the vehicles sales statistics reported every month. There have been 10.5 million passenger vehicles sold through the first 10 months of 2011. In addition to the fact they are “purchased” using 95% debt and financed over seven years, the vast majority are low mileage vehicles getting less than 20 mpg. Only 1.8 million small energy efficient vehicles have been sold versus 6.1 million SUVs, pickup trucks and large luxury automobiles. Americans have the freedom to buy any vehicle they choose. They also have the freedom to not think and ignore the facts about the certainty of higher prices at the pump. By choosing a 20 mpg vehicle over a 40 mpg vehicle, they’ve sealed their fate. How could the average soccer mom get by without a Yukon or Excursion to shuttle Biff and Buffy to their games? Have you ever tried to navigate a soccer field parking lot in a hybrid? The horror!
The American public has been lulled back into a sense of security as gas prices have receded from $4.00 a gallon back to $3.40 a gallon. This lull will be short lived. Oil prices have surged by 15% in the last two months, even as the world economy heads into recession. The link between high oil prices and economic growth are undeniable, even though the deceitful pundits on CNBC will tell you otherwise. Ten out of eleven recessions since World War II were associated with oil price spikes. Gail Tverberg sums up the dilemma of energy scarcity for the average American:
“High-priced oil tends to choke economies because high oil prices are associated with high food prices (because oil products are used in food growing and transport), and people’s salaries do not rise to offset this rise in food and oil prices. People have to eat and to commute to their jobs, so they cut back on other expenditures. This leads to recession. Recession leads to lower oil consumption, since people without jobs can’t buy very much of anything, oil products included. In some sense, the reduction in oil extraction is due to reduced demand, because citizens cannot afford the high-priced oil that is available.”
But don’t worry. The rising oil and food prices will only impact the 99% in the U.S. and the poorest dregs across the globe that spend 70% of their income on food. The 1% will be just fine as they will bet on higher oil prices, therefore further enriching themselves while the peasants starve. The market for caviar, champagne, NYC penthouses, and summer mansions in the Hamptons will remain robust.
There is no escape from the ravages of higher priced oil. There is plenty of oil left in the ground. But, the remaining oil is difficult, slow and expensive to extract. Oil prices will rise because they have to. Without higher prices, who would make the huge capital investment required to extract the remaining oil? Once oil prices reach the $120 to $150 per barrel range our economy chokes and heads into recession. We are trapped in an endless feedback loop of doom. The false storyline of renewable energy saving the day is put to rest by Gail Tverberg:
“Renewables such as wind, solar PV, cellulosic ethanol, and biogas could more accurately be called “fossil fuel extenders” because they cannot exist apart from fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are required to make wind turbines and other devices, to transport the equipment, to make needed repairs, and to maintain the transport and electrical systems used by these fuels (such as maintaining transmission lines, running-back up power plants, and paving roads). If we lose fossil fuels, we can expect to lose the use of renewables, with a few exceptions, such as trees cut down locally, and burned for heat, and solar thermal used to heat hot water in containers on roofs.”
Predictably, the politicians and intellectual elite do the exact opposite of what needs to be done. We need to prepare our society to become more local. Without cheap plentiful oil our transportation system breaks down. Our 3.9 million miles of road networks will become a monument to stupidity as Obama and Congress want to spend hundreds of billions on road infrastructure that will slowly become obsolete. The crumbling infrastructure is already the result of government failure, as the money that should have been spent maintaining our roads, bridges and water systems was spent on train museums, turtle crossings, teaching South African men how to wash their genitalia, studies on the mating habits of ferrets, and thousands of other worthless Keynesian pork programs. If our society acted in a far sighted manner, we would be creating communities that could sustain themselves with local produce, local merchants, bike paths, walkable destinations, local light rail commuting, and local energy sources. The most logical energy source for the U.S. in an oil scarce scenario is electricity, since we have a substantial supply of coal and natural gas for the foreseeable future and the ability to build small nuclear power plants. The Fukushima disaster is likely to kill nuclear as an option until it is too late. The electrical grid should be the number one priority of our leaders, as it would be our only hope in an oil scarce world. Instead, our leaders will plow borrowed money into ethanol, solar, and shale oil drilling, guaranteeing a disastrous scenario for our country.
The United States is a country built upon the four C’s: Crude, Cars, Credit, and Consumption. They are intertwined and can’t exist without crude as the crucial ingredient. As the amount of crude available declines and the price rises, the other three C’s will breakdown. Our warped consumer driven economy collapses without the input of cheap plentiful oil. Those at the top levels of government realize this fact. It is not a coincidence that the War on Terror is the current cover story to keep our troops in the Middle East. It is not a coincidence the uncooperative rulers (Hussein, Gaddafi) of the countries with the 5th and 9th largest oil reserves on the planet have been dispatched. It is not a coincidence the saber rattling grows louder regarding the Iranian regime, as they sit atop 155 billion barrels of oil, the 4th largest reserves in the world. It should also be noted the troops leaving Iraq immediately began occupying Kuwait, owner of the 6th largest oil reserves on the planet. Oil under the South China Sea and in the arctic is being hotly pursued by the major world players. China and Russia are supporting Iran in their showdown with Israel and the U.S. As the world depletes the remaining oil, conflict and war are inevitable. The term Energy Independence will carry a different meaning than the one spouted by mindless politicians as the oil runs low.
And as things fell apart
Nobody paid much attention
A barrel of Brent Crude (the truest indicator of worldwide oil scarcity) sits at $118, up from $75 per barrel in July 2010 – a 57% increase in eleven months. In the U.S., the average price of gasoline is $3.69 per gallon this week, up 37% in the last year and up 100% in the last 30 months.
The pundits and politicians are responding predictably. They blame the Libyan revolution, the dreaded speculators and that old fallback – Big Oil. When the Middle East turmoil began in earnest in January, gas prices had already risen 15% in three months, spurred by increased worldwide demand and by Ben Bernanke’s printing press. Congressmen have reacted in their usual kneejerk politically motivated fashion by demanding that supplies be released from the Strategic Oil Reserve.
Congress has a little trouble with the concept of “strategic.” They also have difficulty dealing with a reality that has been staring them in the face for decades. Politicians will always disregard prudent, long-term planning for vote-generating talk and gestures.
The Long Term
Peak oil has been a mathematically predictable occurrence since American geophysicist M. King Hubbert figured out the process in 1956. His model predicted that oil production in the United States would peak in 1970. He wasn’t far off. In 1971, when the U.S. was producing 88% of its oil needs, domestic production approached 10 million barrels per day and has been in decline ever since.
The Department of Energy was established in 1977 with a mandate to lessen our dependence on foreign oil. At the time, the U.S. was importing 6.5 million barrels per day. In 1985 the country was still able to produce enough to cover 75% of its needs. Today, 34 years later, the U.S. imports 10 million barrels per day, almost half of what it uses.
President Obama’s 2011 Budget proposal included priorities for the DOE:
Positions the United States to be the global leader in the new energy economy by developing new ways to produce and use clean and renewable energy.
Expands the use of clean, renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and geothermal while supporting the Administration’s goal to develop a smart, strong and secure electricity grid.
Promotes innovation in the renewable energy sectors through the use of expanded loan guarantee authority.
That’s what goes on in talk space.
Back on planet Earth, not a single U.S. oil refinery or nuclear power plant has been built since 1977. Decades of inaction and denial have left our energy infrastructure obsolescent and decaying. Pipelines, tanks, drilling rigs, refineries and tankers have passed their original design lives. The oil industry is manned by an aging workforce of geologists, engineers and refinery hands. Many are nearing retirement, and there are few skilled personnel to replace them.
Denial of peak oil becomes more dangerous by the day. The Obama administration prattles about clean energy, solar, wind and ethanol, when petroleum powers 96% of the transportation sector and 44% of the industrial sector. Coal provides 51% of the country’s electricity, and nuclear accounts for another 21%. Renewable energy contributes only 6.7% of the country’s energy needs, mostly from hydroelectric facilities.
Ethanol works nicely as a slogan but poorly as a solution. The ethanol boondoggle diverts 40% of the U.S. corn crop to fuel production. The real cost to produce a gallon of ethanol (tariffs, lost energy, higher food costs) exceeds $7 and has contributed to the price of corn rising 112% in the last year. The 107 million tons of grain that went to U.S. ethanol distilleries in 2009 would have been enough to feed 330 million people for one year.
The most worrisome aspect of peak oil is that our government leaders have known of it and have chosen to do nothing. The Department of Energy requested a report from widely respected energy expert Robert Hirsch in 2005. The report clearly laid out the dire situation:
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.
Some of his conclusions:
World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt. World production of conventional oil will reach a maximum and decline thereafter.
Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly the U.S. Over the past century, the U.S. economy has been shaped by the availability of low-cost oil. The economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale.
The problem is liquid fuels for transportation. The lifetimes of transportation equipment are measured in decades. Rapid changeover in transportation equipment is inherently impossible. Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels.
Mitigation efforts will require substantial time. Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years. Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade. Initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall.
World liquid oil production has never exceeded the level reached in 2005. It becomes more evident by the day that worldwide production has peaked. Robert Hirsch was correct. The world will have a liquid fuel deficit for decades.
The Short Term
The International Energy Agency has been increasing its estimates for world oil consumption to over 90 million barrels per day by the 4th quarter of 2011, led by strong demand from China, India and the rest of the emerging world. World supply was already straining to keep up with this demand before the recent tumult in the Middle East. The mayhem in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen and Iran has already taken 1.5 million barrels per day off the market, according to the IEA.
The Obama administration and mainstream media continue to downplay the economic impact of the conflagration spreading around the world. The risk that oil prices gush toward the 2008 highs is much greater than the likelihood that this turmoil will subside and oil prices fall back to $80 per barrel. As the following chart shows, the daily oil supply coming from countries already experiencing revolution or in danger of uprisings is nearly 8 million barrels per day, or 9% of world supply. No country can ramp up production to make up for that shortfall.
Proven Oil
Oil
Country
Reserves (billion barrels)
Production Per Day
Saudi Arabia
265
9,000,000
Iran
137
3,700,000
Iraq
115
2,700,000
UAE
98
2,300,000
Kuwait
102
2,300,000
Libya
46
1,600,000
Algeria
12
1,300,000
Qatar
25
820,000
Oman
6
810,000
Egypt
4
742,000
Syria
3
376,000
Yemen
3
298,000
The Washington DC spin doctors are now assuring the American people that Saudi Arabia can make up for any oil shortfall. Saudi Arabia has declared it has already turned the spigot on and will produce 10.0 million bpd, up from 8.5 million bpd.
Is this replacement production real? A leading industry expert revealed that the Saudis were already producing 8.9 million bpd in January. Hype and misinformation won’t fill your SUV with cheap gas. Saudi production peaked at 9.8 million bpd in 2005. When prices spiked to $147 per barrel in early 2008, their production grew only to 9.5 million bpd. Saudi oil fields are 40 years old and are in terminal decline. Their “spare capacity” doesn’t exist.
And the media ignore the quality difference between Libyan crude and Saudi crude. Libya’s oil is a perfect feedstock for ultra-low-sulfur diesel. The oil Saudi Arabia will supply to replace it is not. It takes three barrels of Saudi crude to yield the same quantity of diesel fuel as one Libyan barrel of crude, and only specially designed refineries can process high-sulfur Saudi oil.
The problem isn’t just turmoil in the Middle East. The Persian Gulf provides 17% of U.S. imports; 22% comes from Africa, 10% from Venezuela and 15% from Mexico. Many of these countries hate us. Mexico, although a relatively friendly country, will become a net importer of oil in the next five years, as its Cantarell oil field is in rapid decline. They’ll have nothing to sell to us.
The long and the short of it is that sunshine, corn and wind will not keep Americans from paying $5 per gallon or more for gas in the near future. The financial implications are that oil and energy investments will produce solid returns over the coming years.
This article was originally published in the Casey Report.
UN vote is at 6:00 pm. Get ready for fireworks. Remember Colin Powell’s sage advice. “If you break it, you buy it.” Expect Iran to take advantage of our distracted naval forces.
As the uprising in Libya continues, we update you with the latest developments from our correspondents, news agencies and citizens across the globe. Al Jazeera is not responsible for content derived from external sites.
The head of the Benghazi-based Libyan National Council says that the opposition’s fighters will “stand firm” and not be deterred by Gaddafi’s threats, Reuters reports.
Timestamp: 10:41pm
Gaddafi did an interview with RTP, a Portuguese television station, this evening. In it, he said:
The Security Council has not got the right to interfere in the internal affairs of any state. It would be a flagrant colonisation, without any justification. A serious and grave [inaudible]. This is craziness, madness, arrogance. If the world gets crazy with us, we will get crazy too…”
Asked what he means by ‘get crazy’, Gaddafi said:
We will respond. We will make their lives hell, because they are making our lives hell. They will never have peace.”
Timestamp: 10:27pm
Francois Fillon, the French prime minister, has added his voice to French chorus asserting that his government wishes to see immediate military action of the UN Security Council adopts a resolution on Libya.
Timestamp: 10:23pm
A Libyan government spokesman says that any UN action against Libya would be “illegal and immoral”. Mussa Ibrahim, the spokesman, said:
That would be illegal and immoral. It’s an armed rebellion. Any country would’ve fought against that. They are basing their decision on media reports.
“This should not happen. It would harm the Libyan people. It would only strengthen our internal position because Libyans will have an external enemy and act as one.”
Timestamp: 10:15pm
AFP has released some excerpts from the draft UN resolution. They are reproduced below. The resolution:
Demands the immediate establishment of a ceasefire and a complete end to violence and all attacks against, and abuses of, civilians;
“Stresses the need to intensify efforts to find a solution to the crisis which responds to the legitimate demands of the Libyan people and notes the decisions of the Secretary-General to send his Special Envoy to Libya and of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union to send its ad hoc High Level Committee to Libya with the aim of facilitating dialogue to lead to the political reforms necessary to find a peaceful and sustainable solution;
“Demands that the Libyan authorities comply with their obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law, human rights and refugee law and take all measures to protect civilians and meet their basic needs, and to ensure the rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian assistance;
“Authorises member states … to take all necessary measures … to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign
occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory…;
“Decides to establish a ban on all flights in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians;
“Calls upon all member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, to provide assistance, including any necessary over-flight approvals, for the purposes of implementing” the no-fly zone.
“Calls upon all member states, in particular states of the region, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, in order to ensure strict implementation of the arms embargo established (by Resolution 1970) to inspect in their territory, including seaports and airports, and on the high seas, vessels and aircraft bound to or from the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya…
“Deplores the continuing flows of mercenaries into the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya and calls upon all member states to comply strictly with their obligations under (Resolution 1970) to prevent the supply of armed mercenary personnel to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya;
“Decides that all states shall deny permission to any aircraft registered in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya or owned or operated by Libyan nationals or companies to take off from, land in or overfly their territory
unless the particular flight has been approved in advance by the Committee, or in the case of an emergency landing;
“Decides that all States shall deny permission to any aircraft to take off from, land in or overfly their territory, if they have information that provides reasonable grounds to believe that the aircraft contains items the
supply, sale, transfer, or export of which is prohibited … including the provision of armed mercenary personnel, except in the case of an emergency landing;
“Decides that the asset freeze imposed by (Resolution 1970) shall apply to all funds, other financial assets and economic resources which are on their territories, which are owned or controlled, directly or indirectly, by the Libyan authorities … or by individuals or entities acting on their behalf or at their direction…
“Affirms its determination to ensure that assets frozen pursuant to (Resolution 1970) shall, at a later stage, as soon as possible be made available to and for the benefit of the people of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya.”
Timestamp: 9:47pm
AFP now quotes Alain Juppe, the French foreign minister, as saying that military strikes could quickly follow after a UN security council resolution on Libya.
Timestamp: 9:39pm
Citing sources in the French government, AFP reports that air raids on Libyan army positions could begin as soon as the UN Security Council approves the use of force in Libya.
“From the moment the resolution is adopted, military actions could begin in the hours that follow,” a diplomatic source said.
Timestamp: 9:35pm
The Associated Press reports that the closest known position of pro-Gaddafi ground forces to Benghazi is about 130km to the south.
Timestamp: 9:26pm
Here’s a screen grab from our live feed from Benghazi, where residents were both angry, but also in a celebratory mood, during and after Gaddafi’s speech.
Timestamp: 9:17pm
Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera’s senior political analyst, says that this speech will likely affect the deliberations at the United Nations, emphasising the urgency that is required regarding action to safeguard civilians.
He also opines that this will be seen as an “act of desperation”.
Timestamp: 9:10pm
Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley in Benghazi says that he travelled as far as 50km outside of Benghazi a few hours ago, and saw no evidence of any pro-Gaddafi forces approaching the city.
Al Jazeera’s Anita McNaught in Tripoli reports that just a little while before his radio address to Benghazi, Gaddafi had spoken to Lebanese television saying that he would not be launching any military operation on Benghazi in the immediate term.
She also reports that “it’s impossible to know how many people really love him … and how many people don’t want him at all” because security forces control the capital.
Timestamp: 9:07pm
Quite clear from that speech that Gaddafi says he intends to launch an operation on Benghazi tonight, and he would like the city taken by tomorrow. It is not immediately clear if this rhetoric, or if residents of the city are preparing for a possible assault.
Timestamp: 9:02pm
Those quotes below, of course, are from Muammar Gaddafi’s speech to the residents of Benghazi. Meanwhile, live pictures from Benghazi show massive crowds of people, chanting angry slogans in opposition to him.
Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera’s senior political analyst, says that there is a striking similarity between the statements made by Gaddafi and those made by Hosni Mubarak, the former Egyptian president, before he stepped down from power.
Timestamp: 9:01pm
They are finished, they are wiped out. From tomorrow you will only find our people. You all go out and cleanse the city of Benghazi. A small problem that has become an international issue. And they are voting on it tonight … because they are determined. As I have said, we are determined. We will track them down, and search for them, alley by alley, road by road, the Libyan people all of them together will be crawling out. Massive waves of people will be crawling out to rescue the people of Benghazi, who are calling out for help, asking us to rescue them. We should come to their rescue.
“And I, Muammar Gaddafi, I will die for my people. With Allah’s help.
“No more fear, no more hesitation, we are no longer reluctant. The moment of truth has come. If you see the cars with loudspeakers, destroy them, destroy their communications points that are spreading lies to you. Our children are the one’s who have destroyed these planes.
“Just like Franco in Spain, who rolled into Madrid with external support. And they asked how did you manage to liberate Madrid? He said: ‘There was a fifth column, the people of the city.’ You are the fifth column within the city. This is the day on which we should liberate the city. We’ve been looking forward to that day. And tomorrow we will communicate again, and our cause will continue towards the south.
“With our bare chests and heads we were confronting the dangers, facing the challenge, we did not initiate this violence, they started it. Of course, these words will have an impact on the traitors and infidels. Tonight they will panic and they will collapse.
“You are capable of doing it. You are capable of achieving this. Let’s set our women and daughters free from those traitors.
“God is great.”
Timestamp: 8:46pm
“Throw away your arms and find a way out of the city, and then you are saved. Those young men who have been taken advantage of – those infidels who are attempting to burn down our country to the ground, we should have no mercy on them. Those are the traitors, used and abused by those infidels from Qatar, unfortunately, Kuwait and other countries. How stupid can you become to be taken advantage of to that extent in Benghazi? Now you’re hungry and thirsty – we don’t have a natural disaster like the one that happened in Japan recently … but those infidels and traitors we promise to deal with. But the peaceful individuals of our people … should put down their weapons, there is no danger. They should not feel unsafe. There is not a single officer in Benghazi who did not call us, who have been warning us that they have been threatened by people like Zarkawi of being slaughtered.
“Those who have been forced to follow those infidels … those also will be forgiven, granted amnesty, those are my children, and we should not leave those children to distort the image of our country after such a bright history. You have been forced.
One of the companions of the prophets who was tortured who was forced to say he did not believe in the Prophet Muhammad, and he could not face the Prophet afterwards. And the Prophet said don’t worry, God has forgiven you. Except those who were forced to utter things against their hearts. Even those of you who were forced to say things against myself, you are my children, and those in the special forces, the free officers of this country, you have sworn to defend the revolution of September. To fight the enemies. We are coming your rescue. And we will turn the sad situation into celebrations. We will wipe out this black page of our history.
“To all those honest, brave officers, members of the revolutionary committees, university students, and female revolutionary committees, get ready to rebel against those traitors. The world has to see this tomorrow… that Benghazi is not a city of traitors.
“Benghazi, I have liberated it myself earlier with my gun.
“Those, the people who we have seen from one of the city to the other. Destroy any fortified points that you can get to, and if they run away, you take their weapons and you can occupy them.
“The Jawazi tribes, those are brave tribes, we have been proud of. They have an honourable history before the whole world. Let the world witness one more good deed.
“From tonight, those who decide to flee, you take their weapons, and you keep them safe.
“Is it possible that each plane that flies crashes? Is that real? Can that happen?
“There is a cemetary that has been bombed. Is that possible? How can you bomb a cemetary? You are bombing dead people. Your grandparents are buried there. …
“These planes are supposed to be liberating Palestine, or confronting imperialism. Is it possible that our planes are fighting each other? Is it real?
“All people should surround the traitors, to tell them that there is no way out.
“What indicates to us about this current enemy, where are they, where are they hiding, in what room? They are cheating you to tell you that a plane has been able to hit Bab Al-Aziziya, where I live. It has been the centre of celebrations.”
Timestamp: 8:43pm
Gaddafi says he has received thousands of phone calls from families in Benghazi, asking to be rescued.
He alleges that “they” want to make Libya “like Somalia”, adding that Libya is a rich country, but the flow of oil has been stopped.
He has accused Qatar of fueling unrest in the country, and wanting Libya to “surrender it’s dignity” to Qatar.
Gaddafi has also offered “amnesty” to “those who put down their weapons”, adding that people who are fighting have been “fooled”.
He said that fighters should put down their weapons and they would be safe – if they did not, they would be treated as “enemies”.
Timestamp: 8:41pm
Gaddafi says that those fighting in Benghazi are criminals who have been released from prison – that they are “drug addicts” and “murderers” who have been released and handed weapons to fight.
Timestamp: 8:40pm
Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi is addressing residents of Benghazi via radio and television now.
Timestamp: 8:24pm
More on that Gaddafi address: state television reports that his comments will be broadcast on both radio and television.
Timestamp: 8:23pm
Wondering what the complexities involved in setting up a no-fly zone are? Wonder no longer – Al Jazeera’s Jacqueline Head has prepared a handy guide.
Timestamp: 8:22pm
Andreas Oess, of Swiss Humanitarian Aid, says that if Benghazi were to fall, about 40,000-100,000 people would be expected to flood towards the border with Egypt.
“We are not ready” for those kinds of numbers, he said.
Timestamp: 8:05pm
Diplomats have told Al Jazeera that there has been agreement over most of the draft resolution, but there is still concern over one paragraph, reproduced below, which deals with taking “all necessary measures” to protect Libyan civilians, short of an “occupation force”.
Authorises member states that have notified the Secretary-General and the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, and acting in cooperation with the S-G, to take all necessary measures, notwithstanding paragraph 9 of Resolution 1970, to protect cilivians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamarhiya, including Benghazi, while excluding an occupation force and requests the member states concerned to inform the S-G immediately of the measures they take pursuant to the authorisation conferred by this paragraph which shall immediately reported to the security council.
Timestamp: 8:03pm
AFP reports that Muammar Gaddafi is to address the people of Benghazi, according to state television.
Timestamp: 8:01pm
Jay Carney, the White House spokesperson, says the US is acting with “urgency” on the situation in Libya.
We are very concerned about the situation in Libya and the violence that is being perpetrated by the Gaddafi regime against its people. We are acting with a great sense of urgency together with our international partners to take the kinds of actions that we believe will protect Libyan citizens and move towards a
situation where Gaddafi is no longer in power.”
Timestamp: 7:51pm
The UN Security Council session has been adjourned until 2200GMT, when ambassadors will go straight into a vote, Benedict Moran, an Al Jazeera producer in New York, reports.
Timestamp: 7:21pm
The official Jana news agency reports that Libya is warning it could target air and sea traffic in the Mediterranean if a foreign military intervention is staged.
Meanwhile, Russia says that it still has unanswered questions regarding the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya.
“What type of control mechanisms … does it have? Who will be implementing it, by what means, in what format?,” foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich demanded.
Timestamp: 7:11pm
Mark Lyall Grant, the UK’s ambassador to the United Nations, says that the UN Security Council has scheduled a vote on a resolution for 2200GMT (6pm local time in New York), Reuters reports.
Timestamp: 7:09pm
A UN draft resolution to be discussed in New York today by the UN Security Council must authorise action against Libya, “including a no-fly zone”, Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, says.
Our goal in the Security Council today is to convince the Security Council to authorise more actions, including a no-fly zone, but other actions as well, and then to see how many countries are willing to actually do what the Security Council has authorised us to do.”
Timestamp: 7:05pm
Muammar Gaddafi is likely to “cause trouble” for neighbouring countries if he is allowed to stay in power, Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, says. During a televised question & answer program with Tunisians, she said:
Tunisia knows very well that if Gaddafi does not go, he will most likely cause trouble for you, for Egypt and for
everybody else. That is just his nature. You know, there are some creatures that are like that.”
Timestamp: 6:37pm
At least two Arab states have said they will participate in a no-fly zone over Libya, the Arab League says.
Yahya Mahmassani, the bloc’s envoy to the United Nations, said that the United Arab Emirates and Qatar “may be” among those participating.
Timestamp: 6:25pm
The United States has joined France, Britain and Lebanon in pressing for timely approval of the UN Security Council’s draft resolution on intervention in Libya, and it appears that the United States is now pushing for additional measures to a no-fly zone to be adopted, including possible strikes against ground and sea targets to protect civilians.
This would be a change in the policy the US has been adopting so far, when it has urged caution in even advocating a no-fly zone.
Timestamp: 6:21pm
Egypt says that it will not intervene militarily in Libya. Responding to Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state’s, comments earlier about possible “Arab involvement” in military action, Menha Bakhoum, an Egyptian foreign ministry spokesperson told Reuters:
Egypt will not be among those Arab states. We will not be involved in any military intervention. No intervention, period.”
Timestamp: 6:16pm
The Pentagon has voiced “concern about conducting military operations inside Libya”.
“It would be logical if one of [US Defence Secretary Robert Gates’] concerns about a no-fly zone is the element of attacking Libyan air defenses, then an option of air strikes would be pretty similar,” Colonel David Lapan, a spokesman, said, adding that there was concern regarding the conduct of such operations.
Timestamp: 5:44pm
Consultations on the draft UN Security Council resolution in New York have just begun.
Timestamp: 5:38pm
US State department official William Burns says the opposition Libyan National Council may set up an office in Washington DC, the American capital.
Timestamp: 5:34pm
New York-based rights group Human Rights Watch warns of “atrocities” if Benghazi is taken by forces loyal to Gaddafi.
Fred Abrahams, a special advisor to the group, says:
Our main concern is the extreme violence and potential for retribution by Gaddafi’s forces if he succeeds in retaking the area. This is a clarion call given the potential for very grave and very widespread abuses if he retakes Benghazi.
“He [Gaddafi] won’t hesitate to use violence against this rebellious city … we’re simply saying that Benghazi and the eastern cities face the risk of serious violations, perhaps even atrocities.
“We know that the rebels in Benghazi are better armed and more professional, not like the other young men who ran to the front. We know the people who started this will stay until the end, but people are deeply afraid. They know Gaddafi and they know this kind of rebellion can only end in victory or defeat.”
Donatella Rovera, an Amnesty International research in Tobruk, says that is been impossible to contact residents of Ajdabiyah, the site of fierce clashes, on Thursday.
I’ve talked to people who have recently left Ajdabiyah and who say that the situation there is extremely tense. They are scared, there were hits around the town.”
Timestamp: 5:32pm
The possible direct involvement of Arab nations in any international military intervention in Libya is currently being discussed, Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, says during a press conference in the Tunisian capital, Tunis.
Timestamp: 5:29pm
Opposition fighters in Benghazi say they have shot down two warplanes piloted by officers loyal to Gaddafi. Essam Gheirani, a spokesperson, said that one was shot down near Benina airport, and the other in the Buatani area, on the outskirts of the city.
Earlier in the day, Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley reported that he went to the area where opposition fighters said they had shot down one of the planes, and could find no trace of it.
Timestamp: 5:23pm
Al Jazeera’s Scott Heidler in New York reports that the United Nations Security Council is still discussing developments in Afghanistan, with deputy ambassadors present. The formal, closed-door consultations on Libya have not yet begun.
Timestamp: 5:18pm
You can watch that ongoing hearing with William Burns, the US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, live here.
Timestamp: 5:15pm
A high-level panel of the African Union is due to hold a meeting on Saturday in, Nouakchott, the Mauritanian capital, to discuss development in Libya. The five-member heads of state committee of the AU will “determine the modalities of the implementation of its mandate”, according to an AU statement.
Timestamp: 5:11pm
More from that continuing statement from US Undersecretary of State William Burns. He says that there is a “danger of [Gaddafi] returning to terrorism and violent extremism” if he suceeds in his battle against opposition forces.
Timestamp: 5:06pm
General Norton Schwartz, the chief of the US air force, says that imposing a no-fly zone over Libya would “not be sufficient” to reverse the advance of Muammar Gaddafi’s forces on opposition strongholds.
Speaking to the Senate Armed Services Committee, he said that it could take “upwards of a week” to set up a no-fly zone.
He said that if the US were to get involved in international efforts to set up the no-fly zone, aircraft based in Europe and in the United States would be use, but some resources currently being used in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would also be used.
Timestamp: 5:02pm
Reuters reports that France wants the UN Security Council to vote on a resolution authorising a no-fly zone, according to Gerard Araud, the French ambassador to the UN.
I would say that we are asking for a vote at 6:00pm [2200 GMT]. You know the United Nations, it can drift but we are going to ask for a vote at 6:00pm.”
Members of China’s delegation to the UN have told Al Jazeera that they, too, will be looking for consensus to be reached today, though they did not say if they would now be back the imposition of a no-fly zone, a step they had expressed concern over earlier.
Timestamp: 5:00pm
Opposition fighters in the western city of Zintan (120km southwest of Tripoli) say they are bracing for an attack by forces loyal to Gaddafi.
A witness told AFP:
According to the fighters, forces loyal to Kadhafi are trying to encircle Zintan. There are troop movements around the north and southwest. They expect a big attack on the city. I heard no gunfire this morning. They say they blocked the main column [of tanks] during the night.
“Yesterday there was major fighting about 20 kilometres southwest of Zintan. It lasted a good part of the night. According to fighters, there were very heavy weapons.”
Timestamp: 4:50pm
Guido Westerwelle, the German foreign minister, has proposed a strengthening of sanctions on Libya, while US Undersecretary of State Burns says that the US wants “an active Arab partnership” regarding further steps in Libya.
Timestamp: 4:48pm
William Burns, the US Undersecretary of State has warned that Muammar Gaddafi’s forces are making “significant” gains. He was speaking to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Gaddafi’s forces have made significant strides o the ground. I believe they are only about 160km from Benghazi right now.”
Timestamp: 4:31pm
William Hague, the UK’s foreign minister, says that the United States proposed a strengthening of the UN security council resolution during deliberations yesterday.
Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the UN, says that a no-fly zone is one of a “range of actions”, but that it has “inherent limitations in terms of protection of civilians at immediate risk”.
Timestamp: 4:30pm
NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen says that the military alliance is not seeking to “intervene in Libya”, but wishes to be prepared if action is needed.
Timestamp: 4:28pm
More on that statement regarding a possible ceasefire. The Jana state news agency says:
The provisional general committee [ministry] of defence has decided to halt military operations against the armed terrorist bands from midnight on Sunday [2200 GMT] … to give a chance to lay down their arms and benefit from a general amnesty.”
Timestamp: 4:27pm
Residential areas in Ajdabiyah are coming under continued heavy aerial bombardment, Reuters reports, citing witnesses speaking to satellite television networks.
Timestamp: 4:22pm
Al Jazeera’s James Bays in Tobruk has the latest:
No-one really knows which way Gaddafi’s forces will go next. Ajdabiyah still has fighting taking place around it. We know that there’s fighting in terms of air strikes now on Benghazi … that suggests that Gaddafi’s forces are going to make their way along the coast. But they have another option, there is a road that goes straight from Ajdabiyah right here to Tobruk. It is, if you drive it, about 4 hours of desert road, no towns along it at all, so no really early warning for the opposition if Gaddafi’s forces take that road.
“It’s a road or a route … that’s certainly been used in history. In the second World War, that’s where Rommel’s Panzer tanks came along. So I think it is a possibility that he may try to cut off all of the rebel-held towns along the coast line. The main reason for doing that … here in Tobruk, we’re very close to the Egyptian border, and I think Gaddafi would like nothing better than to close that border, because that closes the supply line to the opposition forces.
Asked how Gaddafi has managed to make gains so far, Bays said:
Well, what’s he’s done with most of these towns and places that he’s gone through, is that he’s basically frightened the people into submission. He’s gone to a place like Ajdabiyah and he’s used bombardment at the edge of the town, and then frightened the people into submission in places like Brega and then moved on to the next place.
“Will he do that in Benghazi? Already the air strikes have started around Benghazi, and I can tell you that both here and in Benghazi, the opposition politicians are very upbeat, the opposition military commanders, they say that the big cities are different and they’ll fight him off.”
Timestamp: 4:17pm
AFP, quoting the state news agency Jana, says that the Libyan army will halt military operations from Sunday in order to give opposition fighters a chance to lay down their arms and benefit from an amnesty.
More on this report as and when it comes through.
Timestamp: 4:00pm
That statement from NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen:
It is absolutely outrageous to see the Libyan regime systematically attack its own civilian population. These acts may amount to crimes against humanity.”
Timestamp: 3:53pm
The attacks by forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi on civilians may be “crimes against humanity”, NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen says, according to the AFP news agency.
Timestamp: 3:51pm
More on the airstrikes in Benghazi, from an opposition spokesman.
We have no evidence that any of the strikes caused any damage. It seems to us like a warning, a challenge to the international community.”
He said one of the raids struck near Benina airport, but that airport officials told him no damage had been incurred. Another strike hti Buatani, to the city’s east, and a third in the northwest. The fourth target was near the town of Qaminis, about 50km south of the city.
Timestamp: 3:49pm
A government spokesman says that Libyan military operations in Misurata will be completed by tomorrow.
Mussa Ibrahim, the spokesman, said:
It’s almost entirely under control. This is the final stage. It should be over by tomorrow morning.”
Timestamp: 3:48pm
Muammar Gaddafi says that his forces are set to regain control over the opposition-held towns of Misurata and Benghazi, Al Arabiya television reports.
Gaddafi said that the battle for Misurata will be decided today, while Benghazi would fall without fighting, the satellite television channel says.
Timestamp: 3:45pm
The statement from NATO chief Rasmussen:
Time is of the essence, time is rapidly running out, but I don’t think it’s too late. Very much will depend on the UN Security Council decision.
“I can imagine the international community and the United Nations standing strongly together behind the Libyan people if the weakened regime continues to attack its own people.”
Timestamp: 3:44pm
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO’s secretary-general, has warned that the UN Security Council must act quickly to agree a resolution on Libya, as “time is running out” to stop Muammar Gaddafi from prevailing over opposition fighters.
Timestamp: 3:42pm
Essam Gheriani, a spokesman for pro-democracy fighters in Benghazi, says Gaddafi’s troops are “no where near Benghazi”. He says that pro-Gaddafi troops have approached the oil town of Zueitina, but that they “have been surrounded by the revolutionary forces and are being dealt with”.
Timestamp: 3:33pm
Al Jazeera’s James Bays reports with the latest from the eastern rebel-held town of Tobruk:
There have been fresh air strikes we understand in the last few minutes in Benghazi. One of those airstrikes, another one, taking place on the main airport there. And we’re hearing this time from our team that were there … that there have been casualties this time.
“The opposition are claiming that they’ve made some successes as well, they’re claiming that they’ve shot down a MiG aircraft. I have to say that our correspondent Tony Birtley has been to the scene where this MiG aircraft is supposed to have been shot down, and he can find no sign of it at all.”
Asked about the situation in Tobruk, he said:
It is a long way away, but I think they are still concerned, and they’re concerned because Gaddafi’s forces in the last few days have been pounding Ajdabiyah. Now that is the gateway to Benghazi, but it’s also the gateway to Tobruk, because there’s another road that goes through the desert that goes … to here. And there is some suggestion that possibly one of the things that Gaddafi might consider is to try and seal off the whole of this peninsula by taking that road. Not actually going into Benghazi, but sealing off Benghazi and the other cities along the coast and possibly even closing the border.
“I spoke a short time ago to a Major-General who has come back from the front line, and he says that … they are prepared in Benghazi, but they’re also prepared here, because they know that that is one possible option of Gaddafi to send forces this way and then to try and encircle all of the rebel troops.
“There’s a very defiant mood here, and a lot of support for those opposed to Gaddafi. But you go out on the streets, you go to the edge of town … and really no evidence of any defences at all that I could see, right at the edge of the town in the last few hours, we went out there to the airport, which is on the very edge of the town, that’s the way Gaddafi’s forces would come if they came all the way to Tobruk. And there were just a few fighters, one of them couldn’t have been more than about 12 years old … so not strong defences.
“And I can tell you that when you speak to the people here, they say they’re winning, they say they’re beating back Gaddafi. Then you ask them the question should the international community do more, and they say ‘Yes, we’re all going to die if they don’t help’. So very contradictory answers to those questions.
Timestamp: 3:19pm
Al Jazeera’s James Bays in Tobruk reports that fresh air strikes have taken place in Benghazi in the last few minutes, with the airport being targetted in one of the attacks. Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley in Benghazi says that there have been casualties, though the exact numbers are unclear at this early stage.
Timestamp: 3:02pm
William Hague, the UK’s foreign minister, says there is now nothing holding the US back on supporting calls for a no-fly zone over Libya, Reuters reports.
Timestamp: 3:00pm
Aid agencies say that there are more Libyan families fleeing the country’s east into Egypt than before, but that there is still not a major outflow.
Sybella Wilkes, spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) told Reuters:
We’re seeing higher numbers of Libyans going out. Some are leaving Benghazi saying they fear it might be bombed and the road to the border might be blocked.”
Marcal Izard, a spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), said there is “no major movement of displaced” people towards the border.
Timestamp: 2:43pm
Libyan state television reports that forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi have recaptured Zueitina, a major oil terminal, and are advancing towards the outskirts of Benghazi.
There is no immediate confirmation of this report.
Timestamp: 2:41pm
Residents of the western town of Misurata say they are preparing for a new attack by pro-Gaddafi forces.
Saadoun, a Misurata resident, told the Reuters news agency:
There were two more rounds of shelling last night. But things are quiet so far. We are hearing that tanks are moving … We believe they will attack the city again. We are not sure if they will do it right now or if they will wait for more reinforcement from Tripoli, especially after their defeat yesterday.”
Timestamp: 2:11pm A senior hospital official told The Associated Press that 30 people have been killed since Tuesday night in fighting for the gateway to rebel-held territory.
Libya’s opposition battled to keep Gaddafi’s forces at the city of Ajdabiya on Thursday, hoping for help from the UN Security Council before his tanks and troops break through.
The official said at least 80 were hurt and hospitalised and many more of the wounded could not reach the hospital. He spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of official retaliation.
Gaddafi’s rapid advance on the rebels appears to have spurred the United States to leave behind weeks of doubts about a no-fly zone in Libya, and start pushing for broader UN authorisation for international air, sea and land forces. Timestamp: 1:40pm Libyan state television said on Thursday that forces loyal to Gaddafi had recaptured the western city of Misurata, but residents and rebels in the city denied the report. State television said the armed forces had retaken control of Misurata and it was now being “sterilised from those criminal armed gangs”.
But three residents told the Reuters news agency the rebels still controlled the city.
“This [state TV] is not true. They are lying. Misurata is quiet and there is no sound of any bombing,” resident Mohamed said.
Timestamp: 1:35pm Fighting between Libyan rebels and Gaddafi’s troops near the eastern town of Ajdabiyah killed at least 30 women, children and elderly men, according to reports. Libyan rebels have been trying to halt Gaddafi’s troops’ push towards the insurgent capital of Benghazi. Timestamp: 1:23pm
Libyan State TV says gunfire and explosions are being heard at the airport near Benghazi.
Timestamp: 1:21pm
At least 30 people are dead in hospital in the eastern Libyan town of Ajdabiyah, according to reports.
Timestamp: 1:18pm
Conflicting reports: Libyan State TV is reporting that Gaddafi’s forces are in control of the western city of Misurata. However, rebel fighters deny the report, saying they are still in control of the city.
Timestamp: 12:00pm Gaddafi fighter jets have bombarded Benina airport, 10km south of Benghazi city, Al Jazeera’s correspondent reports. Timestamp: 10:00am On the move and on a mission to crush the opposition – Libyan forces loyal to Gaddafi head east.
Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley has the latest on the uprising:
Timestamp: 9:15am
Medical sources in Misurata told Al Jazeera that at least 80 members of Gaddafi’s forces were killed during yesterday’s fighting.
Timestamp: 7:40am In Benghazi – Libya’s rebel-controlled second largest city – opposition protesters are buoyed by news that fighters in a nearby town have beaten back an offensive by Gaddafi’s forces.
While some in the city are apprehensive that the war may still come to their door step, they remain defiant, vowing to fight on to defeat Gaddafi’s troops.
Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley reports from Benghazi:
Timestamp: 6:12am Gaddafi said his forces would fight a “decisive battle” on Thursday, as diplomats backing a no-fly zone to rein him in pressed for a vote at the UN Security Council. Timestamp: 3:30am
Al Jazeera’s Scott Heidler said that Rice’s call for “a resolution that should go beyond a no-fly zone, is something that we haven’t heard before.
“We are hearing from diplomatic sources that change came over night on Tuesday when an initial draft resolution presented and discussed yesterday afternoon.
“She came into the discussions today [Wednesday] with a different point of view. And that was yes no-fly zone and even a step further beyond a no-fly zone.”
Timestamp: 3:00am
France, Britain and the United States have pressed for a UN Security Council vote on Thursday on a no fly zone to halt Muammar Gaddafi’s attacks on rebels.
Council ambassadors met behind closed doors to debate the text for more than eight hours on Wednesday, and said they would return on Thursday morning.
Timestamp: 1:53am
The UN Security Council may need to take measures in Libya that go beyond a no-fly zone in Libya, the US envoy to the United Nations said Wednesday.
Timestamp: 1:47am
The US ambassador to the United Nations has said that the Security Council will continue the negotiations on Libya Thursday.
“My hope that we are able to reach a serious resolution.”
Timestamp: 1:29am
The AFP news agency reported on Wednesday that the UN Security Council have reached an agreement on the text of a draft resolution on Libya, which will be put to a vote on Thursday, diplomats said.
Timestamp: 1:00am
Reuters news agency has reported that the Libyan army has set an ultimatum on Wednesday to clear Benghazi by 2200 GMT, Libyan television reported.
A text on the screen of Al-Libya television addressed the residents of Benghazi saying:
“The army is coming to support you and to cleanse your city from armed gangs.
“It urges you to keep out by midnight of areas where the armed men and weapon storage areas are located.”
Today’s rant examines scenarios for the escalating War for Oil in the Middle East.
Quote of the Day
Revelation 6:8
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.
As the Great Depression progressed onward, the early collapse in RE prices made many Banks insolvent, which then precipitated the Stock Market Crash of 1929.
“Creating fuel production in a failed- state Libya is beyond the grasp of the EU’s and United States’ unconventional ‘assets’. Blatant military intervention would be opposed by Russia, China and no doubt the other oil- producing autocracies.”
World War III over in the M.E. has ratcheted its way up here quite a bit in the last couple of days. Dominoes are falling fast and furious now.
Unlike in Egypt, el-Kabong has shown he isn’t going to exit stage left quietly, and while the MSM tiptoes around the subject saying “Libya MIGHT descend into Civil War”, the truth is apparent, there is ALREADY a full on Civil War going on there.
Obama-sama has declared “Nothing is off the Table”, and they are floating the idea of arming the rebel forces. Now exactly who to and how they will issue Assault Rifles and RPGs to isn’t exactly clear. Does a Container Ship pull up at the dock and Libyan Towel Heads line up for an issue of Guns and Ammo? Do they pay for the Ammo or we just hand it out for free? Nobody is handing me free Ammo! I am paying through the nose for it here! These folks live on $2 a day. How many rounds can you buy for $2 in Libya?
Then there are the Limeys and the Frogs, the ones most strenuously pushing for a “No Fly Zone” to be established over Libya. This because apparently for the Brits the boys at the London School of Economics were in bed with el-Kabong, and they are probably looking at losing a shit load of money here if they cannot protect their assets. For the Frogs, I suspect they along with the Ities get most of the shipments of Libyan Oil, its right across the Mediterranean Sea. They are getting hit first and hardest with the supply loss, which they have to try to make up from other sources, but this is pretty hard to do when all the other sources are having problems producing also and what they do produce already has been contracted for.
So, on the Gas shortages/lines/rationing problem, the Ities and the Frogs look like they will be the first Western Countries hit. I don’t know if either of those countries maintain any kind of SPR. Labor strikes have already hit the Frogs, if they start having trouble getting gas, France is going to be in the deep doo-doo very quickly. So these folks want to shut down the Libyan Civil War ASAP and get those Oil Wells producing quickly.
So if you figure its hitting them first, they should be the ones who sign up a bunch more Mercs for the French Foreign Legion to head over to Libya to guard the Oil Wells. Both the French and the Brits have plenty of their own Jets, and you don’t even need an Aircraft Carrier, you can sortie the Jets straight out of an airbase in Sicily. Its only about 300 nautical miles across the Med Sea for them to Bomb Tripoli back to the Stone Age. So if any Western Countries are about to drop in on this Clusterfuck, one suspects the Brits and the French will be the first to do so.
While the Civil War has been spinning up, the Refugee issue is getting rapidly bigger. Just yesterday I read in the MSM the Spin that the refugee issue was not too bad, 100K or so on the borders of Algeria and Egypt. Today, the number was jacked up an order of magnitude to 1M. “Humanitarian Crisis” has hit the pages of the MSM. An HC is ALWAYS the excuse for a UN “Peacekeeping” Force to be dropped into a War Zone. So I am figuring the UN is negotiating to set up Refugee Camps in Egypt and Algeria, where they will then drop in a shit load of French and Brit Mercs, using these refugee camps as a staging ground for sending in counterinsurgency Special Ops to try and Capture/Kill el-Kabong. They clearly have to try this before trying to stage up a massive INVASION with Tanks, the hope being if they can come out with el-Kabong’s Head on a Pike, the Rabble will calm down and they can then Restore Order. Trying alternatively to restore order here by Brute Force will take a LOT of military assets. Just think about all those WWII Tank Battles in North Africa between Patton, Montgomery and Rommel. This is a BIG patch of land to try to control this way.
The question here is just how well prepped is el-Kabong? How much fuel does he have stored up for his Jets? How many MREs does he have sequestered to dish out to his “Loyal” troops? How good a Bunker did he build with his Oil Billions? Is it better than Hitler’s Bunker? I’ll bet it is. Probably has its own Micro Nuke Hitachi Power Plant buried and a deep well drilled down to the water table left over from the Jurrasic Period, 50 years worth of Mountain House Freeze Dried Food and an Underground Hydroponic Farm for growing produce into the next century. LOL.
Even if he just has an average Bunker though, its unlikely that unless he makes a HUGE mistake and gets caught out in the open making a Speech that the Mossad will be able to take him out quickly. How LONG can he keep his war machine rolling with fuel and ammo? Can he hold his OWN Oil fields Hostage, and threaten the Brits and Frogs that if they try to get him he will blow the wells to Kingdom Come? El-Kabong is CLEARLY psycho enough to do this, you would have to believe he would do it.
Meanwhile, over in Saudi Arabia, its heating up fast as well. Despite the Diktat from the House of Saud that all demonstrations are Illegal under Sharia Law and political opponents being arrested and tortured willy nilly, there is a big Demonstration planned for Friday, and I suspect this will get the ball really rolling in Saudi Arabia as well. The Saudi Royalty has been watching all the shit go down all around them, so I cannot see them tolerating any kind of large demonstration. If there is one, I suspect the Saudis will go in and hit them hard and fast. This won’t work to stop the problem, it will make it worse and then Saudi Arabia goes down the same road as Libya. I certainly cannot see the House of Saud picking up and leaving quietly like the Hoser did from Egypt. Like el-Kabong, those Sheiks know if they cannot hold onto Power there, they are FINISHED, all their wealth goes Bye-Bye as the “Authorities” at the BIS freeze all their accounts. They’ll be back to Camel driving.
So, bottom line here, possibly in as short a time span as one month or so from RIGHT NOW, we could see along with Libya in full on Civil War, Saudi Arabia in much the same predicament. This basically completes the path of Anarchy and War stretching from Morocco in North Africa all the way across to Pakistan, easily triple the geographical area of Europe in WWII. This by itself is World War, but does not even take into account the shit going on between the Koreas, the shit going on in Chechnya, and the shit going on down on the Mexican Border, along with all the shit going down in Ecuador, Venezuela, Colombia et al. Its WORLD WAR III folks, its here. So far YOU are still somewhat insulated from this anarchy, but its Coming Soon to a Theatre Near You in some fashion.
What will the “fashion” be that the Big Show comes to your Theatre? Well, remembering back to WWII, the Battles all occurred over in Europe and North Africa and China and in the Pacific Islands. We did not get Bombed over here, but we did have serious rationing. At the moment, for the most part it looks like that scenario gets repeated, but as I indicated in a prior post, it looks to be worse rationing this time because we do not have our own local supply of Oil in sufficient quantity to keep all the systems developed since running and we have a much larger population.
The Austerity required this time around here in the FSofA to support the War Machine I think will be too great for the society to bear, and so as this progresses we also will break down into Civil War. This isn’t going to happen overnight, its still likely a couple of years away. Still, you have to remember that down in Mexico they are already about in full anarchy as Cantarell stops producing, and this can only mean the border issues down in TX and AZ will increase. If/when we start having Blackouts/Brownouts in the Big Shities, the FSA in these Shities will take the opportunity to start Looting. Mad Max commences shortly thereafter. Forget subsisting on Grasshoppers and Mealworms, if you expect to survive in the Big Shities, you will need to develop a taste for Human Flesh. Stock up plenty of Curry, all meat tastes the same when Curried, just ask any Chef in an Indian Restaurant. Cats, Dogs, Mice, 4th Grade Children, Nursing Home residents, whatever, you cannot tell the difference when you load it up with Curry. If/when we get Soylent Green, its about guaranteed it will be flavored with Curry.
Time is definitely RUNNING OUT now to make your ESCAPE. I do not recommend you try to escape outside the borders of the FSofA unless you have contacts and some connection to people wherever it is you are planning on evacuating to and you fit in racially, ethnically and religiously with the dominant population of the area. Do not head for South America unless you speak FLUENT Spanish and/or Portuguese and can pass as Hispanic. Do not head for Asia unless you speak FLUENT Mandarin and are at least half Han Chinese. If you are a White, the only places you should head for are the ones where Whites are dominant. Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, Finland, the Falkland Islands, Norway, Tasmania, Tristan de Cunha-Edinburgh of the Seven Seas are about the ONLY places I would ever consider as reasonable to try to evacuate to if you were going to leave the FSofA as a White Person. Britain is OUT. Britain is TOAST. The Sun has SET on the British Empire and the little island they Ruled the World from for a while. Ireland might be survivable.
Inside the borders of the FSofA, Numero Uno BEST location for White Folks, ALASKA!!! Ranked in order on the FSofA Top Ten RE Doomer Holes List:
1) Matanuska-Susitna River Valley, Alaska
2) Juneau/Ketchikan Alaska
3) The Valley of the Great Salt Lake, Rocky Mountains Utah (especially if you are a Mormon)
4) Cascade Mountains, Oregon,Washington
5) Ozarks Mountains, Missouri and Arkansas
6) Tennessee Valley, Smokey Mountains
7) Shenandoah Valley, Poconos Mountains
8) Adirondack Mountains, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire
9) White Mountains, New Hampshire, Maine
10) Louisiana Bayou (if you are OK with Sweating all the time)
You can buy some raw land CHEAP in many of these places right now (though not as cheap as it will be in the future, but if you have the money and want to secure the purchase now the prices are not too bad). A good purchase would be Raw Land bordering on a National Park. Much as I do not believe in Land Ownership for myself, I bought 20 Acres bordering on Mark Twain National Forest and put it in my Grand Nephew’s Name. Used about half my 401K when I cashed out to make that purchase. He is only 5 years old, but unlike his Dad my Nephew, he has no Debts encumbering him. The Banksters do not Own him yet. He OWNS that land under our current Goobermint and Property Ownership system, Free & Clear. I’ll pay the Taxes on it long as I can, it is unimproved hunting land and the taxes are low. My family in Missouri can pack up and go there if things get tough. I have hammered down on them for the last 3 years to Prep Up and be ready to move, I can only hope they will when it becomes necessary, I am too far away otherwise to make a difference for them. As it is, they aren’t in a bad zone, Springfield MO is a small city surrounded by a lot of working Farms, I think Springfield will do OK for a while. My Brother-in-Law is a Tool & Die Man, and his company got a contract to supply plumbing fixtures for the building going up on the old WTC site in NYC. Should keep the company going a few more years if the monetary system does not crap out completely. Call me a Hypocrite if you like for doing this, for taking some of my Illuminati Money and BUYING land, but this IS the system and its not changing this minute, so I might as well get rid of the Fiat this way, eh? WTF else would I do with the money anyhow? Buy GOLD? Sorry, I don’t need a new Paperweight and besides, I can always go out and pan up some more, it just takes a lot of patience to do it and you get very little each day, but good grief, when its price goes up to $1500/oz, any idiot with a pan can pull up that much in a month of work by a good stream. Tedious work, but not as bad as flipping burgers at Mickey Ds, and while you do it you can ponder on the nature of existence, quite like when you go Ice Fishing. It’s not stressful, very relaxing actually.
Of course, you also can only do it for 3 or 4 months or so after the spring thaw, it’s not year-round work. I expect though that if the Gold price continues to skyrocket, this summer there will be a LOT of Panners out there. LOL. I am actually considering taking the summer off this year just to Pan, Fish and Hunt. Probably won’t do it, but I am considering it. Another alternative I am considering for the summer is touring Doomstead locations in NZ and British Columbia, and maybe making a last trip to Europe before it devolves into complete anarchy (assuming that has not already occurred by June). Another alternative I am considering is taking one last Gas Consumptive Tour of the NA Continent, driving from the Mat Valley across the Al-Can and all the way back to my birthplace in NYC. If it looks like the gas is going to be available for that trip at anything under $5/gallon, I might go for it. Visit tent cities, check out the real stories across the nation. Perhaps make some speeches and talk from the pulpit of some Unitarian Churches across the country. I still have decent connections with the Unitarians, it’s the “religion” I was brought up under. If I use the Bugout Machine for it, it probably costs $10K in fuel. There is REAL Hypocrisy for you if I do that one. LOL. But Hell, I am gonna die soon enough anyhow, and the 2000 gallons of gas I use to make this trip isn’t going to make a damn bit of difference anyhow globally speaking, so WTF. I think it would be a decent utility of the fuel and my money, to chronicle what I see and write about it. Anyhow, I will decide come around May what I will do this summer. Call this Doomer Vacation Planning.
Anyhow, I have drifted quite a bit in this Rant off the main topic of the evolution of WWIII we are witnessing. I really do not see at this point how anyone could make the case that WWIII is not already in progress when you look at what is currently going on in the M.E. At this MOMENT, it is not really affecting directly most of us here in the FSofA, but it most CERTAINLY is affecting millions if not BILLIONS of people across the M.E. countries. All of these countries are LOADED with the weapons of the Industrial War Machine, in order to Maintain Power Puppets like el-Kabong and the Saudi Sheiks have spent a FORTUNE in Oil money buying the tools of high tech warfare, from the assault rifles to the helicopter gunships to the jets. The system is coming apart at the seams, and now these weapons will be used, one way or the other. It is getting ugly out there NOW, and it is Coming Soon to a Theatre Near You.
The political class and their mouthpieces in the corporate controlled mainstream media are desperately trying to spin the oil price surge as a temporary inconvenience that will not derail their phony recovery story. Brent crude closed at $116 per barrel yesterday. West Texas crude closed at $104 per barrel. Unleaded gas has risen by 22% in the last month and 60% since September 1, 2010. I’m sure this slight increase hasn’t impacted Ben Bernanke or Lloyd Blankfein. Their limo drivers just charge it to their unlimited expense accounts. Joe Sixpack, driving his 15 mpg Dodge RAM pickup, is now forking over an extra $1,200 per year in gas expenditures, not to mention more for everything impacted by oil such as food, utilities, and anything transported to their local Wal-Mart by truck (everything). Luckily, the Federal Reserve and crooked politicians only care about their comrades in the top 1% elitist society, for whom oil is an investment, not an expense.
UNLEADED GAS
The “experts” speak as if they know what will happen, even though they never saw the rebellions coming in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya. They assure the masses that Libya doesn’t really have an impact on U.S. oil supply. It’s as if these shills never took Econ 101 in college. World oil demand is 88 million barrels per day. Oil supply is 88 million barrels per day. If 1 million barrels of oil supply are taken off-line, it doesn’t matter that the U.S. doesn’t get their oil from Libya. The Italians need their oil. Do the talking heads understand that oil is fungible? The supplier will ship the oil to the highest bidder. Presto!!! – $116 a barrel oil.
With Friends Like This, Who Needs Enemies
Let’s assess the probability of things getting better in the near, medium, long term or ever term. Take a gander at the chart below. These countries account for 29% of the daily world oil supply. Does it strike you as a list of stable countries with happy populations of employed young men? Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iran have already experienced revolution or are on the verge of revolution. Algeria is dead man walking. The Saudi royal family is trying to buy off the masses to stay in power. The revolution genie is out of the bottle. It can’t be put back. Mix 40% unemployment, with millions of young men, no hope, and some Muslim fundamentalism and you’ve got yourself an out of control situation. No amount of public relations spin will create a positive outcome for the United States. The existing world order of despots, kings, and military juntas was just fine for Washington DC. They poured hundreds of billions of “aid”, tanks, helicopters and missiles to these “freedom fighter” despots who diverted the billions to their Swiss bank accounts and fell into line with U.S. policy. No matter who takes power when these revolutions succeed in toppling our puppets, the new regimes will not be friendlier toward America. And they still have the oil.
Proven Oil
Oil
Country
Reserves (bil barrels)
Production Per Day
Saudi Arabia
265
8,400,000
Iran
137
3,700,000
Iraq
115
2,700,000
UAE
98
2,300,000
Kuwait
102
2,300,000
Libya
46
1,600,000
Algeria
12
1,300,000
Qatar
25
820,000
Oman
6
810,000
Egypt
4
742,000
Syria
3
376,000
Yemen
3
298,000
One look at the chart of self reported world oil reserves paints a picture of woe for the United States. Countries in the tinderbox of the Middle East and Africa control 65% of the world’s oil reserves. Saudi Arabia controls 20%, Iran and Iraq control 11% each, Venezuela controls 7%, Russia 5%, and Libya 3%. So, countries that can barely stomach our existence, hate us, or just despise us, control 57% of the world’s remaining oil. Sounds like a recipe for lower oil prices in the future. The two countries on our border are the only dependable suppliers for the U.S. Canada controls 13% of the world oil reserves, mostly in its tar sands. Mexico controls just over 1% of the world’s oil reserves, but supplies 13% of the U.S. daily oil supply.
Drill, Baby, Drill
Now for a reality check on the “Drill Baby Drill” propagandists like Larry Kudlow and the other dishonest Republican shills. The United States controls a full 1.58% of the remaining oil reserves in the world. We have 21.3 billion barrels of reserves versus 264 billion barrels in Saudi Arabia. We are currently producing 9 million barrels per day. At that production rate, the U.S. will deplete its proven reserves in the next 6 to 10 years. New discoveries will not be able to keep up with depletion of existing wells. The good news just keeps coming. Mexico’s oil production has been dependent upon one giant oil field since 1976. The Cantarell oil field produced 2.1 million barrels per day in 2003 at its peak. It is currently producing 464,000 barrels per day. Peak oil has arrived in Mexico. By 2015, the country that currently supplies 13% of our daily oil supply will become a net importer of oil. Drill Baby Drill.
Based upon the monthly import data below from the IEA, it would appear that, to paraphrase Chief Brody in Jaws, we’re going to need more corn. As the Obama administration operates in denial of these simple facts, they will continue to push ethanol and Chevy Volts to save us from dirty oil. We are already diverting 40% of our corn crop to the ethanol boondoggle. I’m sure that has nothing to do with the 98% increase in corn prices in the last year. Maybe tax credits for solar panels on SUVs and rubber band propeller cars will save the day.
We know for a fact that Mexico’s 1.2 million barrels per day will evaporate in the next few years. But, at least we have that solid dependable 2.7 million barrels per day (30% of our daily imports) from those stable bastions of democracy Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Angola, and Algeria. Makes you want to go out and buy a Hummer. The storyline being sold to the American people is that there is no need to worry. Saudi Arabia will step to the plate and make up for any shortfalls throughout the world. Just one problem. Saudi Arabia is lying about their reserves and their ability to increase production. They’d fit in very well in Congress and on Wall Street.
Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries)
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country
Dec-10
Nov-10
YTD 2010
Dec-09
YTD 2009
CANADA
2,064
1,975
1,972
2,104
1,943
MEXICO
1,223
1,229
1,140
1,063
1,092
SAUDI ARABIA
1,076
1,119
1,080
870
980
NIGERIA
1,024
806
986
1,020
776
VENEZUELA
825
884
912
772
951
IRAQ
336
340
414
325
449
ANGOLA
307
263
380
266
448
BRAZIL
271
188
254
181
295
ALGERIA
262
379
325
336
281
COLOMBIA
220
489
338
179
251
ECUADOR
192
188
195
86
181
RUSSIA
158
85
252
168
230
KUWAIT
125
170
195
160
180
UNITED KINGDOM
124
80
120
67
103
ARGENTINA
85
35
29
33
53
Lies, Obfuscation, Misinformation & Denial
The late Matt Simmons made the strong case In his book Twilight in the Desertthat Saudi Arabia has been lying about their reserves for years. Documents released by Wikileaks give support to this contention. Cables from the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh , released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from senior Saudi government oil executive Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.
The UK Guardian reported:
According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 – global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as “peak oil”.
Husseini said that at that point Aramco would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because the Saudi energy industry had overstated its recoverable reserves to spur foreign investment. He argued that Aramco had badly underestimated the time needed to bring new oil on tap.
One cable said: “According to al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy optimists would like to portray.”
The US consul then told Washington: “While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered.”
A fourth cable, in October 2009, claimed that escalating electricity demand by Saudi Arabia may further constrain Saudi oil exports. “Demand [for electricity] is expected to grow 10% a year over the next decade as a result of population and economic growth. As a result it will need to double its generation capacity to 68,000MW in 2018,” it said.
It also reported major project delays and accidents as “evidence that the Saudi Aramco is having to run harder to stay in place – to replace the decline in existing production.” While fears of premature “peak oil” and Saudi production problems had been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in public.
The overstatement of reserves by Saudi Arabia and most of the OPEC countries should be abundantly clear to anyone with a smattering of critical thinking skills. This eliminates just about everyone on CNBC or Fox News. Essentially, the self reported, unaudited declared oil reserves from OPEC members are a fraud. Production quotas for each member of OPEC are dependent upon their oil reserve amount. When this was instituted in the early 1980s, shockingly OPEC countries miraculously added nearly 300 billion barrels to proven reserves in a six year period with NO NEW DISCOVERIES of oil. The chart below shows the unexplained jumps in reserves in red. Do you honestly believe any self reported number from Iran or Venezuela? Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a former senior expert of the National Iranian Oil Company, has estimated that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have overstated reserves by a combined 320–390 billion barrels and has said, “As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion barrels is almost one hundred billion over any realistic estimate.”
Using some common sense, someone might ask, “How could Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves remain above 260 million for the last 22 years despite pumping over 60 billion barrels during this time frame, and not making any major new discoveries?” Maybe their statisticians did their training at Goldman Sachs or the Federal Reserve. The monster Saudi oil fields are over 40 years old. They will deplete. Oil is finite. They will not refill abiotically like some crackpots contend. Saudi Arabia’s production peaked in 2005 and it has been unable to reach that level since. The spin sheiks in Riyadh and spin doctors in Washington DC cannot spin oil out of sand. Peak oil is about to choke the American way of life.
Declared reserves of major Opec Producers (billion of barrels)
The denial, accusations and misinformation have already begun. Congressional hearings will be called to blame Big Oil and the dreaded speculators. Americans always need a bogeyman to blame for their mindless decisions and willingness to be led to slaughter by corrupt politicians. Big oil companies do benefit from higher oil prices. Big oil companies spend millions buying off Congressmen. Big oil companies cut corners, ignore safety procedures, and seek profits by any means possible. But, they do not control the oil. Nations control the oil. Many of these nations are led by lying, corrupt, evil despots. That is a fact. Blustering moronic Congressmen going after oil executives and phantom speculators is just a sideshow. It will divert the non-thinking masses from the truth that our leaders haven’t allowed a refinery or nuclear power plant to be built since 1977. These leaders have promoted and subsidized corn based ethanol that requires more energy to produce than it creates and has driven the cost of our food sky high. We are more dependent on foreign oil than any time in our history.
The real speculators are the Americans who clog our highways every morning driving monster SUVs, turbocharged sports cars, gas guzzling minivans, and pickup trucks that make them feel like salt of the earth tough guys despite living in their 6,000 square foot energy sucking McMansions in suburban tracts 30 miles from their jobs, if they have one. The ignorance of the average American car buyer knows no bounds. The recent bounce back in auto sales was led by SUVs and pickups. The green clean cars are nothing but hype and bullshit. GM expects to sell about 10,000 Volts this year, and Nissan expects to sell about 25,000 Leafs in the United States, a piss in the ocean compared with the millions of sport wagons and SUVs purchased by Americans annually. Americans have the attention span of a gnat and are already dazed and confused by the surge in gas prices to $3.50 per gallon.
When oil prices spiked to $147 barrel in 2008, Americans were spending $467 billion per year for fuel. By early 2009, the collapse in energy prices due to the worldwide recession reduced the annual expenditure to $265 billion, freeing up over $200 billion for consumers to spend on other items, pay down debt, or save. Expenditures for fuel had already surged back to $400 billion before the recent spike in oil prices. Next stop $500 billion. That should do wonders for the faux economic recovery that has been touted by Obama and the MSM for the last year. The years of denial, lies, indecision, bad decisions, and inertia have left the country vulnerable and at the mercy of countries in far off lands that despise our way of life.
There are no good outcomes, only bad, really bad, and catastrophic. Take your pick. Could gas prices drop below $3.00 per gallon if the world sinks back into recession? Yes. But it would only be momentary. The easy to access supply is dwindling. The medium and long term direction of gas at the pump is up. There is nothing that can be done in the next five years to prevent significantly higher oil prices. A full court press of realistic ideas like converting our truck fleets to natural gas, a major effort to build nuclear power plants, more drilling, greater use of wind, geothermal, and solar would take at least a decade to have an impact. There is no consensus or resolve to undertake such an effort. Therefore, Americans will suffer the consequences. Be a good American and take advantage of GM’s no interest for 7 years deal on their biggest baddest SUVs and buy two. What could go wrong?
One month ago today, President Obama was congratulating Libya on a “milestone” election — even though the disintegration of the country after the 2011 US invasion was ongoing.
