Martin Armstrong – Page 9 – The Burning Platform

Are Americans Ignorant or victims of Yellow Journalism?

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

Reuters has published the result of what is being touted as the Ignorance Index. The one question as an example: “Guess how many U.S. girls aged 15-19 give birth each year. Go ahead, guess. If you calculated the number at 3 percent you’re correct; if you guessed 24 percent, you’re American.”

I rarely watch TV. If I do, it tends to be national news – never local that think a burning house is news or some guy shot his wife in a domestic dispute. I was at dinner and the TV was on. I could not believe the TV advertisements for the elections. They are all NEGATIVE calling the other a liar or misrepresenting the facts on everything. One said the candidate cut the number of police, made the streets more dangerous and then shows a picture of ISIS and then said she raise taxes. Then the very next advertisement flips and calls the other a liar for something or another. There was ZERO advertisement about anything other than vote for me because I lie less that the other liar.

It seems that the Ignorant Index may be more tied to the bias and lack of integrity of the media. They focus on sensationalism to gain readership and in the process focus of one thing and create false images in the minds of the average person.

A classic issue is immigration and Muslims. Americans, according to the Ignorant Index, “significantly miss the mark on the proportion of the population that is comprised of immigrants, guessing 32 percent against the true number of 13 percent. Americans also overestimate the number of Muslims in the population, 15 percent versus only 1 percent in reality, and underestimate the number of Christians, 56 percent to 78 percent. ”

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It seems as if the problem is not that Americans are ignorant, they are being fed nonsense by the media to sell newspaper and TV advertising. We have fallen into a cycle of Yellow Journalism that was begun by Pulitzer. It was Pulitzer for created the Spanish-American War by making up shit to sell newspapers. The famous Pulitzer Prize given by Columbia University is named after the father of Yellow Journalism – go figure!

One good place to start is OUTLAW negative advertising. COMPEL political candidates to state what they stand for rather than calling their opponent a liar. Then if they do not vote for what they profess and knuckle under to party rule, that should be FRAUD and time for a vacation in the “Big House” (Penitentiary named after a place you were supposed to be silent and do penance).. We seem to elect people for no reason and then wonder why nothing changes. Obama’s vote for me for real change has been a joke – he kept the same people Bush had in place. This is why polls place politicians at 7% trust factors. The days of Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Maggie Thatcher who at least stood for what they believed in regardless of what people thought, are over. They were at least ethical.

At what point does revolution take place? It does not appear to be a percentage in our review of history, but the economic trend. In other words, turn the economy down and the percent of discontent rises exponentially. So beware – not ghosts and goblins, but politicians 2015.75-2020. So perhaps Americans will wise up only when the economy turns down and the Internet provides a greater proportion of real news compared to mainstream media. Indeed, the younger generation under 40 rely on the internet and those who subscribe to newspapers or watch the TV news are diminishing rapidly. This in itself will be a dynamic shift that restores freedom of the press and only then perhaps we will see Americans rise in the Ignorance Index.

Best Form of Government – Will Anything Ever Work?

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

There is no single form of government that will ever be perfect. Whatever its form, government will self-corrupt and both sides will fight eternally between the people and government perhaps eternally. The best form of government for brief periods of time are benevolent dictators, monarchs, or emperors, such as Julian II, who even decreed that whatever laws he passed must also apply to himself. Such individuals are rare indeed and once they are gone, the system will revert back to its corrupt state.

Another system that actually worked very well was Genoa. There the “Doge” (head of state) was selected each year from the head of a prominent family. The rich families ruled on a rotating basis annually. What made it work well was the short-term period. No family would ever pass something Draconian because it would apply to themselves the next year. The system was not one of rich v poor, but Genoa v Venice and Florence. The interests were furthered collectively rather than this philosophy of party politics. Therefore, each class benefited. It also lasted longer without corruption than Florence or Venice.

The best we can hope for is a hybrid between Democracy and a Republic that is restrained by a Positive Constitution rather than a Negative one as we have in the United States. In other words, if we have an everyday bureaucracy to run things that is subject to review by the people who rotate annually, there is some hope that it might last longer before it collapses. Much of the bureaucracy should be privatized where management will be proper and employee pensions will actually have to be there. When government is in charge, those in power just exempt themselves from the laws that apply to others – the first step in the corruption process.

With technology, each and every measure must be voted on by the people. There should be no Clean Water Act that has hidden some study on traffic flow in a city nobody ever heard of to line the pockets of someone’s family member. Voting can be done via your laptop and if each and every bill must be presented individually, that will stop the nonsense.

Judges CANNOT be appointed by anyone in government. They must be as Ben Franklin argued, nominated by the guild of lawyers. That way the best will rise to the top – not the most corrupt. Prosecution must also be independent and the people MUST actually indict meaning that they hear both sides in a grand jury. Plea bargaining must end and CONSPIRACY must end. Only those who are involved in a crime may be charged – no one else. No one charged with a crime may testify against another. Self-interest in prosecution must end.

While legal scholars tend to look at Article III of the US Constitution as based upon the English legal system modeled on Blackstone’s famous Commentaries on the Laws of England, Franklin argued for the Scottish System that was far superior. Indeed, the Scottish judicial system provided an important, but overlooked, model for the framing of Article III. Unlike the English system of overlapping original jurisdiction, the Scottish judiciary featured a hierarchical, appellate-style judiciary, with one supreme court sitting at the top and an array of inferior courts of original jurisdiction down below. What’s more, the Scottish judiciary operated within a constitutional framework — the so-called Acts of Union that combined England and Scotland into Great Britain in 1707 retained the independent legal structure of Scotland and prohibited the English courts from interfering with those of Scotland. The influence of the Scottish judiciary on the language and structure of the US Article III legal framework is clear where there is a Supreme Court with multiple inferior courts that are subordinate to, and subject to the supervisory oversight of, the sole supreme court. The Scottish model thus provides important historical support for the supremacy of the Supreme Court, however, the blending of this with the English system rendered the inferiority in Article III to operate as textual and structural limits on Congress’s jurisdiction-stripping authority from the courts. But the most dangerous flaw appears to be intentional – Congress appoints judges not lawyers. This allowed the English legal system to be politically manipulated whereas the Scottish System was really independent. This MUST be corrected to restore the rule of law.

Career politicians get bored and pass laws just to have something to do like in Utah you cannot drink before ordering dinner or in Europe regulating cow farting. This is why a representative form of government with career representatives is doomed to always fail. They can be bribed to enact particular laws to benefit some party. The only check and balance would be to rotate, as in Genoa, and to allow the people to vote online.

A raw unrestrained Democracy would devolve into mob rule. That we cannot tolerate either. There should be something that rotates as a Constitutional court as in France where each law passed MUST firs be ruled on as being Constitutional by a body of lawyers that rotates and MUST be trained in constitutional law which is significantly different from following statutory law. The former is structural design while the latter is following the letter of the law. This is a Positive Constitution that restrains government and is a real Bill of Rights. We have the negative form where government gets to do whatever it likes and we must prove we have any rights – very bad.

Prison should be outlawed for non-violent crimes. The ONLY reason a government has the right to restrain the liberty of an individual is to protect others from bodily harm – that is it. Every law passed by Congress states – “fine or imprisonment or both”. That must stop. Debtor’s Prison must end. The USA imprisons more people than the rest of the civilized world combined. Why are we so imprison happy when only about 4% of the people in prison are there for a violent crime? A woman was arrested and taken to jail for violating some statute that did not allow for imprisonment. A woman with children was taken to jail for not wearing a seat belt and the Supreme Court, being pro-government appointed by politicians, voted 5-4 that the police can imprison you for anything even if the crime does not call for jail time. We have a virtual 99% conviction rate because there is no way to win against pro-government judges.

Learning from the Past

There seems to be the potential to at least learn from the various political types of governments, how they functioned, how long did they last, and what was the impact upon the people. The advantages of Genoa was that the short terms restrained the Doge compared to Venice where the Doge was for life. Venice froze the estate upon the Doge’s death and only THEN reviewed all his actions to see if anything was gained illegally. Then the state would reclaim the “illegal” gains. That was closing the barn door after the horse ran away.

Government is corrupt and rotten to the core – it is honorable only for brief shinning moments when the dark clouds leave a crack. One Pope Formosus (c. 816 – 4 April 896) ruled against a Lord so the Lord rigged the game to become Pope and then put Formosus’ dead corpse on trial, had a friend answer for the dead Pope. Naturally, Formosus incriminated himself, who wouldn’t in such circumstances, and he was promptly found guilty, nullified all his decrees, and then claimed his property back. They will do anything – absolutely anything.

Julius Caesar (100-44BC) had to assume the role of high priest to create a calendar because the politicians were bribing the high priests to add days into the calendar to avoid elections. There is absolutely NOTHING those in power will not do to society for their own self-interest. Finding someone ethical who really cares is one in a billion.

The key is to review each form of government and take what worked and avoid what did not. We have to understand that no system will ever last forever. So the best we can do is design a system that has the best features and some internal mechanism of checks and balances. Nevertheless, whatever we can think of, will merely create the challenge for others to figure ways around. If we eliminate taxation and restrain government expenditure to what is required for natural expansion of the money supply to facilitate economic growth, then the majority of the lobbying will cease and therein lies the deepest cracks for corruption.

Danger of Conspiracy Theories

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

If you want to hide something in plain view, exaggerate it to the point it becomes extreme and convert it to a conspiracy theory. This is a very standard in how to create propaganda and if you keep saying a lie, its becomes the truth to many without ever having to prove anything. To uncover the truth, takes digging. This I have discovered both in politics as well as market fundamentals.

The two big conspiracy theories to be exaggerated that cover up the truth are the 911 WTC Attack and the Kennedy Assassination. With the former, people take it to the extreme and claim there was not even an attack by terrorists and the whole thing was made up. Sorry, there was an attack and the government knew it was coming and allowed it to for three purposes

(1) eliminate the evidence on many cases in WTC7 including all my evidence that documented EVERY market manipulation up to 1999 by the investment banks et al for which they are getting fined all the time today
(2) wipe out the evidence that would have exposed the missing $2 trillion in the Pentagon budget, and
(3) generate more power for government by allowing Americans to be victims as originally proposed in Operation Northwoods.

Now, that is far closer to the truth than claiming there was no Middle East terrorists involved at all, Strange, for that does not jive with Saudi Arabia threatening Russia with terrorism or the funding of ISIS to overthrow Syria which has now overthrown most of Iraq.

Then there is the Kennedy Assassination spun to be the product of the Mafia or with Oswald’s Russian connection. Eisenhower in his Farewell Address warned of the vast military complex that had grown out of World War II employing over 3 million people. There was no such industry before that war and the view was now Communism would take the world. My father was a Colonel under General Patton and you to tell me all the time about him as a child how he read the books of his opponent and how he accurately predicted that the real enemy would be Stalin and wanted to go all the way to Moscow.

In the Third 1960 Presidential Debate, Kennedy exposed the truth behind the decline in the Bretton Woods System – it was the vast expenditure on the military. Her said:

Now on the question of gold. The difficulty, of course, is that we do have heavy obligations abroad, that we therefore have to maintain not only a favorable balance of trade but also send a good deal of our dollars overseas to pay our troops, maintain our bases, and sustain other economies.

The price of silver was rising and Kennedy set in motion the withdraw of silver from the monetary system. This too has been spun into a conspiracy theory Here they have spun JFK’s Executive Order 11110 into the Federal Reserve killed Kennedy because he was taking their power to print currency away. You just can’t get any more far-fetched than that one.

Simply put, JFK also said the US current account deficit could be stopped at any time if the government stopped expanding its military worldwide for that was sending dollars offshore. If anyone had a motive, it was the very same people behind the NSA abuse of power – not the Federal Reserve, Mafia, or Russians. Just follow the money and you get closer to the truth – i.e. Halliburton, Cheney and the Iraq War against a nation who was against religious fanatics, the very terrorists who attacked the USA – go figure that one out without following the money. We took out two dictators who kept religious fanatics in check -Saddam Hussein and Muammar al-Gaddafi.

BTW, as soon as Halliburton was to be investigated, they moved to Dubai. Just follow the money.

Obama-Sanctions & Ukraianian Ceasefire

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

The economic sanction against Russia are causing serious economic damage in Europe. Farmers are going bankrupt and Finland has lost its triple-A rating thanks to Obama-Sanctions. The sanctions were wrong from the start and they should be removed immediately. The attempt at a permanent ceasefire has come about not because of Obama-Sanctions, but despite the Obama-Sanctions. The one-sided partisanship of the West in the Ukraine conflict ordered the government in Kiev had to engage the East in a military crackdown or the IMF said there would be no loans. Even Obama’s bitch, Christine LaGarde, dictated his terms secretly attached to the IMF that has become anything but independent.

Now there are alleged to be several thousand civilian casualties whose blood is on the hands of Obama and LaGarde. The question remains, if the ceasefire holds, then why do we still have Obama-Sanctions? If they are not lifted, one must question if we have Obama and his oligarchs trying to instigate economic ostracization of Russia to increase the market share for American energy companies and the Middle East.

The people of Kiev are caught in the middle. Their government has been taken over by the West – stuffed with politicians the people are told if they revolt against them, they will receive no support. Their government tells them they must have patience for they will see reform after the war. Meanwhile, the people of Kiev are really pawns. The heating system and hot water are old style communist. You do not have a hot water heater in each home. It is provided by the government from a central plant. They have no hot water and have to use stingers (electric rods that heat the water) and the government told the people they would not turn on the heat until there were 3 consecutive days of frigid weather. Now they are turning off electricity for a few hours during the day. This is why the people are moved to revolution. They cannot even get a hot bath.

Those who write about Ukraine assume western basics that do not even exist.

ECB Negative Interest Rates Sends Money into Dollars

Every country in the world is attempting to implement the same strategy to avoid making the hard choices regarding their unsustainable welfare states. They all want low interest rates, rising inflation and a declining currency. This allows them to support an unsupportable amount of public debt and issuing of even more debt to finance the existing debt. It’s truly a Ponzi scheme. Europe is now effectively charging depositors to keep money in their banks. This has caused an avalanche of European money to pile into U.S. dollars, driving the dollar index to a four year high. The Fed and the rest of the U.S. oligarchs don’t like this one bit. A higher dollar decreases the profits of our multi-national corporations. The drawing of capital into the U.S. will increase our stock market, bond, and real estate bubbles. Foreign countries will be forced to raise interest rates to protect their currencies from falling too much. The world economy is a zero sum game. A global depression is on the near term horizon and the idiot politicians and central bankers are leading us into it.

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

European Banks are now threatening companies with negative interest rates (penalty) when they want to simply park assets in money houses at short notice. Complaints about this practice are starting to rise quietly behind the curtain, which including operations such as airlines. According to our sources, several banks are beginning to levy this negative penalty interest upon large business customers under ECB policy. This idea floated by Larry Summers sounds like you will force investment to take place. However, we are finding simply a capital flight out of the Euro and into the dollar is contributing the free-fall in the Euro.

As always, politicians are clueless about how the economy works. People can move their cash from Euro to dollars to avoid the penalty interest and will not “invest” in Europe when they see no opportunity to invest. Even Keynes stated clearly that there are times to reduce taxes to “stimulate” the economy. Government keeps raising taxes because they need money yet attempt to force people to spend and invest when the economy is still imploding.

From a realistic problem, the ECB is now attempting to destroy many companies with this penalty interest by wiping out their short-term liquidity. If companies have no cash on hand because they spent it as the ECB desires, they would run the risk of bankruptcy unable to pay employees in an economic downturn we are likely to see 2016-2020. This policy is having a major impact upon the Euro – far more than anticipated just based upon our own clients.

Yet the problem concerns major companies in Germany listed in the DAX companies. Penalizing liquidity will be even more devastating for the small and medium-sized companies under the ECB’s policy. This is driving the Euro into a free-fall and sending capital flows into the dollar just to maintain liquidity – completely brain-dead ECB policy.

This trend becomes vastly problematic for the corporations leaving no effective alternative – end liquidity or move to the dollar. The banks themselves are responsible for the penalty interest. The low-interest rate makes it difficult for institutions to invest the money worthwhile – but dollar deposits are still better than negative and you can retain the liquidity to survive the economic storm on the horizon.

The banks are desperately trying to convince the CFO of the companies to move cash into other forms of investment. The situation remains tense, as long as the ECB conducts its low-interest rate policy. This is compounded by two additional problems (1) Banks are notoriously bad economic advisers just look at their own history of bailouts, and (2) there is the credit risk of the banks in Europe to begin with not to mention the IMF proposal to just confiscate 10% of all bank deposits. Let’s be real – it would be political disaster to confiscate from individuals and not corporations.

Then there is the problem of regulation. A managing director is forbidden to speculate with existing corporate capital for he is liable for criminal prosecution if he pulls money from the company and uses it for non-business related purposes. Yet the ECB penalty of liquidity can be very complex given the interplay with other regulations. Corporates have their hands tied in ways the ECB does not consider.Speculative transactions do not belong under the relevant jurisdiction for the purpose of normal business. The very idea of trying to force investment carries criminal liability if the directors lose money.

Penalty interest being charged on bank customers is highly dangerous in setting off capital outflows from Europe into the dollar. Capital will also flow from European to American banks as a hedge against the ECB. If a bank has to pay interest to the ECB, it is possible to shift the penalty interest paid as “fees” on to their own customers to mask the real requirement, yet this may fool individuals, but not corporates.

Academia – The Great Fraud?

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

If we look at the world leaders, nobody has a degree in leading a nation. Most are lawyers. Even if we look at Christine LaGarde, she too is a lawyer running around threatening nations to give up foreigners or they will be banish from the world club while she sits in the Troika dictating the future of Europeans politically and economically, yet she again has no degree in what she is doing.

The question that rises to the surface is clearly what good is a degree when you cannot get one to be a world leader, politician, hedge fund manager, portfolio manager, or just about anything other than a doctor, lawyer or a civil engineer?

Geniuses typically clash with their teachers because teachers do not encourage original thought as several studies have shown. Teachers want kids who obey and follow orders. Winston Churchill was terrible in school yet without him Hitler would have died in a retirement home. Albert Einstein’s teacher famously decreed he would amount to nothing. Here is what Gandhi had to put up with:

When Mahatma Gandhi was studying law at the University College of London, a professor, whose last name was Peters, disliked him intensely and always displayed animosity him.

Also, because Gandhi never lowered his head when addressing him as he expected, there were always “arguments” and confrontations.

One day, Mr. Peters was having lunch at the dining room of the University, and Gandhi came along with his tray and sat next to the professor. The professor said,”Mr Gandhi, you do not understand. A pig and a bird do not sit together to eat.”

Gandhi looked at him as a parent would a rude child and calmly replied, “You do not worry professor. I’ll fly away,” and he went and sat at another table.

Mr. Peters, reddened with rage, decided to take revenge on the next test paper, but Gandhi responded brilliantly to all questions.

Mr. Peters, unhappy and frustrated, asked him the following question:

“Mr Gandhi, if you were walking down the street and found a package, and within was a bag of wisdom and another bag with a lot of money, which one would you take?”

Without hesitating, Gandhi responded,

“The one with the money, of course.”

Mr. Peters, smiling sarcastically said,

“I, in your place, would have taken the wisdom.”

Gandhi shrugged indifferently and responded,

“Each one takes what he doesn’t have.”

Mr. Peters, by this time was fit to be tied. So great was his anger that he wrote on Gandhi’s exam sheet the word “idiot” and gave it to Gandhi.

Gandhi took the exam sheet and sat down at his desk, trying very hard to remain calm while he contemplated his next move.

A few minutes later, Gandhi got up, went to the professor and said to him in a dignified but sarcastically polite tone, “Mr. Peters, you autographed the sheet, but you did not give me the grade.”

Ebola – The Next Plague/Pandemic?

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

On Wednesday another American, NBC News reporter in Liberia Ashoka Mukpo was diagnosed with the deadly virus, the channel reported. He is being evacuated to the US for treatment. However, the appearance of Ebola in Europe has not been widely reported. On Friday, Germany confirmed its second case of Ebola, as a man flown from West Africa into Frankfurt University Hospital has been placed in an isolation ward.

According to the latest figures disclosed by the UN World Health Organization (WHO) there have been 7,178 confirmed cases since the first Ebola patient was treated early this year. The agency says there have been 3,338 deaths from Ebola based on information provided by the Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

We are looking at almost a 50% mortality rate. That is up there with the Black Plague of the 14th century. There was of course the 1916 Polio (poliomyelitis) epidemic that inflected 27,000 people and killed 7,000. Polio came back 1949-1952 infecting 99,801 people in USA killing 6,020 people with about 500,000 deaths worldwide. This disease has tended to infect city-dwellers and is known even in ancient times to have hit many people. There was the 1916-1926 Encephalitis lethargica or von Economo disease is an atypical form of encephalitis. Also known as “sleepy sickness” epidemic that killed 5 million people in Europe and North America alone. Then the 1918 Spanish Flue that killed an estimated 100 million worldwide. The 1980 AIDS epidemic infected 988,376 people killing 550,394 by December 2005.

The three greatest plagues were Antonine Plague, due to the name of the Roman emperor in power at the time, 165–180AD, which had a mortality rate of about 30% of population Europe, Western Asia, Northern Africa. The type of disease is not known, but the symptoms were similar to smallpox.

The second great plague was known as Plague of Justinian, due to the name of the Byzantine emperor in power at the time, 541–542AD, which killed about 40% of population Europe. This was the Bubonic plague.

Then there was the great one known as “Black Death”, which killed 30% to 70% of population in various countries within Europe between 1346–1350AD. This was the plague that came to Europe from Crimea in Ukraine/Russia.

The 1918 flu pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920) (pictured above) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic. This was the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus. It infected 500 million people across the world, including remote Pacific islands and the Arctic, and killed 50 to 100 million of them. The mortality rate is better known as a percentage of the world’s population being about 5% while the mortality rate among those infected was about 20% making it one of the deadliest natural disasters in human history.

Plagues are important. My own family came to America prior to the American Revolution. The first Armstrong to arrive in American was named Martin. My family even fought in the American Revolution. However, there was a plague that hit Philadelphia/New York region during the mid-1800s. My ancestor Martin at that time saw his entire family die. The woman next door saw her children and husband die. The two eventually married and restarted a family. So I guess I am here today because of that plague.

We are trying to gauge the extent of infection as a percentage of population, the mortality rate among those infected, in order to see if this is going to be a big one or a blip that is not huge as a percentage of world population. Everything is cyclical. When you get flu shots, they are based upon cycles and which strain should appear and when. This is the annual flu season.

To be accurate, the study we are conducting has several layers to it. Plague is typically a bacteria whereas a virus is different. Both have become pandemics which is an epidemic that has spread through human populations across a large region; for instance multiple continents, or even worldwide. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic. Further, flu pandemics generally exclude recurrences of the seasonal flu. Throughout history there have been a number of pandemics, such as smallpox and TB (tuberculosis). More recent pandemics include the AIDS (HIV) pandemic as well as the 1918 and 2009 H1N1 virus pandemics.

For the purposes of our study, we plot both separately and then combined. In the words of Hillary Clinton – “what difference does it make” if you are dead.

Obama & Holder Destroy the Constitution

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

I have studied Constitutional Law intensely and I can say with conviction that history will indeed remember Eric Holder and his mentor Obama for much more than merely the top 9 controversial issues everyone writes about. Mr. Holder’s more than five years as the nation’s chief legal officer has been absolutely devastating to the future of the nation and the Rule of Law. This goes far beyond merely the NSA, IRS scandal and the State Department scandals.

Barack Obama ‘s White House has done serious long-term damage to the world economy and the civil rights of every American. Obama and Holder pushed the authority of the executive branch of the federal government far beyond any democratic process. The administrative agencies under the Executive branch have gone well beyond the edge of the Constitution and law in a systemic manner that is truly breath-taking. Unlike previous presidencies where there was just one controversial instance, the Obama-Holder team have embarked on virtually a dictatorship under the pretense of democracy. I do not say this lightly nor as a political partisan.

Everyone who has ever studied law had basic rules that government simply could not go beyond – they just can’t do that! Everyone in the legal community if they spoke freely has now learned that what they took for granted as clear meaning of existing law just no longer applies. Once you undermine the Rule of Law, everything else collapses for in the end game, you cannot even prove you own anything when it is subject to interpretation and discretion.

In 2011, the Obama-Holder tag-team just did what they wanted anyway ignoring the Judiciary regarding off-shore oil drilling. Believe it or not, Federal Judge Martin Feldman found the government in contempt holding: “Each step the government took following the court’s imposition of a preliminary injunction showcases its defiance.” Of course nobody goes to jail for how can you order the Justice Department to put itself in jail for contempt? This is why we need an independently elected Roman Tribune who can prosecute anyone in government and is outside the Executive Branch. We call that a Special Prosecutor to investigate a president – well we need a real elected office of Tribune to secure the Constitution and be able to criminal charge Obama, Holder, or John Boehner .

The Obama-Holder tag-team has effectively made federal legal authority boundless eliminating any restraint upon government as Obama justified the actions of the NSA saying you have to give up liberty to be safe. “I think the American people understand that there are some trade-offs involved,” Obama said when questioned by reporters at a health care event in San Jose, Calif. He also famously said: “It’s important to recognize that you can’t have 100 percent security and also then have 100 percent privacy and zero inconvenience,” he said. “We’re going to have to make some choices as a society. And what I can say is that in evaluating these programs, they make a difference in our capacity to anticipate and prevent possible terrorist activity.”

The question is – safe from whom? Obama stands in history directly in opposition to those who founded this nation. In Belgium Obama clearly stated the struggle between the state and the people. His address in Belgium to the European Youth who are suffering unemployment levels almost three times that of the Great Depression on March 26, 2014 obviously demonstrates he knows what he is doing to tear down democracy.

“The belief that through conscience and free will, each of us has the right to live as we choose. The belief that power is derived from the consent of the governed, and that laws and institutions should be established to protect that understanding. And those ideas eventually inspired a band of colonialists across an ocean, and they wrote them into the founding documents that still guide America today, including the simple truth that all men — and women — are created equal.

“But those ideals have also been tested — here in Europe and around the world. Those ideals have often been threatened by an older, more traditional view of power. This alternative vision argues that ordinary men and women are too small-minded to govern their own affairs, that order and progress can only come when individuals surrender their rights to an all-powerful sovereign. …

“And just as we meet our responsibilities as individuals, we must be prepared to meet them as nations. Because we live in a world in which our ideals are going to be challenged again and again by forces that would drag us back into conflict or corruption. We can’t count on others to rise to meet those tests. The policies of your government, the principles of your European Union, will make a critical difference in whether or not the international order that so many generations before you have strived to create continues to move forward, or whether it retreats.”

Obama has stated clearly that he has come full circle. He believes that right must be surrendered to the sovereign government for only it can defend freedom by taking it from the people. This is very strange logic.

The Obama-Holder theory of law has been mind-blowing. Essentially, they stand for the proposition that the needs of justice supersede the law’s boundaries. Obama has effectively stated he will take your rights and money but for a good purpose – government power to protect your right to have rights and money? This is precisely what Thrasymachus warned about and every law professor when confronted with this question would have responded – that is not law. Nevertheless, Obama has stood for the proposition that justice is merely the self-interest of the stronger – government.

Anyone who thinks I am exaggerating this in any possible way should look at what Obama said himself. In July 2011 over the debt ceiling, Obama said publicly that he would like to “bypass Congress and change the laws on my own.” He said this again in June 2014 with respect to immigration reform. This is what one expects from a dictator – not an elected official who pretends to be a Constitutional lawyer. The very next year, Obama then made his unconstitutional recess appointments to the National Labor Relations Board. Effectively, he bypassed Congress to stuff his own people in positions without the approval of the people. UNHEARD OF! Yet Obama also said back in 2011: ”Sometimes when I talk to immigration advocates, they wish I could just bypass Congress and change the law myself, but that’s not how a democracy works.”

The antics of the Obama-Holder tag-team have displayed the audacity to argue in federal courts what difference does it make? The real curious phase is not only used by Obama-Holder in court, when Hilary testified before Congress regarding the attack if it was a protest of just some guys out for a walk and decided to kill some Americans she too simply replied – what difference does it make? This is not a legal argument in any court under any system of law that I am aware of. It makes a huge difference for even as Hillary tried to dismiss the attack, one is an organized terrorist attack and the other is just a random act of violence.

I am not the only one with a problem here regarding the abuse of power of Obama-Holder. In 2013, D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Brett Kavanaugh wrote that the Obama administration’s legal claims raised “significant questions about the scope of the Executive’s authority to disregard federal statutes.”

Obama’s praise of Holder one would think he offhandedly saved the nation. Certainly not from the abuse of government. The legal precedents are shocking and very alarming. These people never get it. Obama expands the reach of the Presidency and the next one comes in and always expands it further. Nobody ever reforms. So unfortunately, we are headed down the creek in a boat that is leaking without a paddle. Our children will never know the world in which we grew up when once upon a time there use to be a friendly face behind every badge.

Obama’s Russian Sanctions Are Backfiring on US & Further Destroying The World Economy

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

The US up until Bush, Jr has been the driving force behind the World Economy. I warned that the USA peaked in 1999 and that we would begin to see a decline that would result in the fragmentation of the USA at the end of the cycle. However, the cycle of Political Change on the USA peaked in 2013. On April 18th, this is when the confrontation between Obama and Putin began as he tried to gear-up for war to get a pipeline through Syria to compete with Russia. Syria was then accused of using Chemical Weapons. The model turned April 22nd, 2013.

It was also April 2013 when North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, despite stiffer sanctions from the UN, announced plans to expand his nuclear weapons and strengthen the country’s economy. So much for sanctions working there. Nevertheless, Obama has been implementing sanctions against Russia, but Obama’s pattern of complete disaster in foreign policy is repeating yet again as Europe is suffering an economic implosion and Obama has dealt a serious death-blow to the GDP of Europe particularly in agriculture. The golden rule in France – never mess with its farmers.

The sanctions against Russia are backfiring on the US and history is repeating as to how the United States will collapse. It appears the very same mistake that led the arrogance of Athens causing all its allies to abandon it and some actually turned and aided Sparta in killing the Athenian Empire is unfolding before our eyes.

Indeed, as Athens did not consider the welfare of its allies and imposed whatever was best exclusively for itself at their expense, Athens lost its allies and support. The last 2 years turned into a phase transition that became self-evident in its coinage. The Athens Owl, the cornerstone of world commerce like the dollar today, ended as effectively a bronze coin that was silver plated between 406-404BC. Athens lost all support and its ability to mine silver.

I have warned that the NSA inflicted a very serious and deep wound against American Allies. I have warned that the Obama sanctions were not going to play out the way he had intended. Nobody seems to ever ask have sanctions ever worked even just once. It is the same play-book over and over again without results.

France is bankrupt. It hates America and still suffers from the loss of Waterloo and had they won that battle, many still believe the world would be speaking French rather than English. By France needs Russian natural gas. Total SA, France’s largest energy company, has just announced that the company is seeking $27-billion financing for a gas project in Russia, the Yamal LNG project, ignoring the Obama sanctions against Russia. They will not use dollars and are looking to finance the project in euros, yuan, Russian rubles, or any other currency but US dollars to avoid being prosecuted based on dollar transactions.

Total SA is relying on the Yamal project, which is expected to start in 2017, to provide a big chunk of the company’s production growth. Obama’s sanctions reduce Total SA to a broker for US energy companies. The US claims it can supply the gas to Europe and attacking oil field in the Middle East claimed to be in control of ISIS, will further expand US oil exports as well. Obama seems to be bought and sold by to the energy companies. Total SA is moving for its own survival, but Obama is arrogant precisely as was Athens and he cannot see the trend right before his eyes.

FBI Blasts Apple, Google Phone Encryption: It “Allows People To Be Beyond The Law”

By Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics

FBI James Comey Attacks Apple & Google

FBI director James Comey, who used to be the head prosecutor in NYC the most corrupt office in the system, had come out swinging at Apple and Google for developing forms of smartphone encryption so secure that law enforcement officials cannot easily gain access to information stored on the devices – even when they have valid search warrants. Of course, Mr Comey can only see the abuse of power of government as necessary and not the severe damage that has been done to the entire industry because of the abuse of the NSA and others. He said he could not understand why companies would “market something expressly to allow people to place themselves beyond the law.” Perhaps he should not work for government and then he might get it.

Largely because of the abuse of government, which is by itself beyond the law that he cannot grasp, this is not a question of only criminals. This is a matter of personal privacy that a government if FREE – has not right to violate. This is not all about him. This is what those in government cannot see. There is a real world out here with a right to LIBERTY, FREEDOM FOR ALL, and the right to PRIVACY. It was government outlawing condoms that led the Supreme Court to draw the line and say no – there is a right to privacy. That right was established in Griswold v Connecticut. Just how does one enforce you are not using a condom? Do government agents storm into your bedroom to inspect before having sex? This is what Comey just does not understand – sorry you have no such right. Prove your cases the old fashion way – with detective work.

James Otis (1725-1783)

James Comey needs to go back to law school to study the simple fact that the American Revolution began because of this very type of abuse of the search and seizure of private communications without warrants. George III (b 1738; 1760-1820) became king in 1760. In February 1761 Parliament enacted the Writs of Assistance that were challenged in court in Boston, Massachusetts. These were writs that empowered, like the NSA today at their discretion, the kings agents to search anything they suspected. The defending lawyer James Otis (1725-1783) pronounced these writs were “the worst instrument of arbitrary power, the most destructive of English liberty, and the fundamental principles of law, that ever was found in an English law book.” Otis warned that the king placed discretion in the hands of every agent to act as he desired. Nothing has changed for Comey can do whatever he desires and it is always the burden of the citizen to still prove he has any rights whatsoever.

John Adams (1735–1826; 2nd President 1797–1801) was there in the audience at that hearing that day. Adams was so moved by the four hour speech of James Otis that he declared: “Then and there was the first scene of the first act of opposition to the arbitrary claims of Great Britain. Then and there, the child independence was born.”

I am sure the kings men also viewed their power as necessary as Comey does today. They could simply enter someone’s home and search all your papers. If you wrote anything derogatory against the king, off you went to prison. This is what inspired the American Revolution and the Fourth Amendment that there had to be a reason to search not just arbitrary desire to want to know and lets see what we can find as the NSA and FBI do today. This is the very essence of LIBERTY. You cannot pretend to be the leader of the free world with people like Comey in government.

Chaos of War – The Next Will Be no CNN TV Special

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

According to reliable sources, the primary reason I have been for backing off of war is because this is by no means going to be some TV CNN special where you watch things be blown up on TV as if it were a surreal movie or video game. First, Russia has intercontinental nuclear capability but it also has battle-field tactical nuclear weapons that would be used if their troops were truly going to lose. Secondly, China will support Russia and has already come out and taken their position against the arrogant posturing of the United States. Thirdly, there are sleeper cells within the United States that will take out power-grids and poison water supply. Cut the power and the USA will fall into chaos in a matter of days. In part, this is why Homeland Security has bought more than 1700 tanks for domestic use and it is also the thinking behind 1033 and the militarization of the police domestically. Either way, be it sovereign default on pensions and social programs that are inevitable or a domestic attack that takes out power-grids and poisons the water supply, troops are here to react. Homeland Security has been staging military drills taking various cities without notice to local politicians.

The stupid warlike Republicans who want to attack ISIS had better think twice before going down this road. If America puts boots on the ground, we will be drawn deeper and deeper into a war that nobody is going to win.

On the evening of Monday, August 18, 2014 the US Army commenced military exercises in Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota. MH-60 variant Black Hawk helicopters buzzed through the downtown and residential areas of the two Midwestern cities as reported by CBS local news. This shocking event was actually a repeat of August 2012 exercises we previously reported. The U.S. Special Operations Command conducted exercises until the beginning of September along with police from Minneapolis and St. Paul using helicopters, including Black Hawks.

The ominous exercises, which took place over three days between the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security in close collaboration with the local police who have been militarized, is part of a campaign to prepare for civil unrest but this can unfold from economic situations or caused by internal attacks at the hands of sleeper cells intent upon unleashing chaos within the USA. Moving to electronic currency will help eliminate bank runs during such a crisis in addition to ensuring the government gets every penny of tax. Yet moving to electronic currency will also raise the potential to shut down the US economy entirely by taking out power-grids.

The next war is not going to be just a media event we watch on CNN and say WOW! Get’em. This time it will not be a video game. If we do not temper the arrogance of Washington, these nut-jobs will bring the war home this time and it will not be a video game version.

SECESSION

You have Scotland on the verge of seceding from the UK. You have Catalonia wanting to secede from Spain. You have right wing candidates leading polls in France. You have eastern Ukrainians fighting a civil war to secede from the U.S. backed Nazi Ukrainian government in Kiev. Syria is breaking up. Libya is broken up. Iraq is a quagmire of factions. Egypt is a tinderbox. The whole world is tearing apart. But at least the stock market is doing well. Anyone who willfully ignores the coming firestorm of this Fourth Turning will be swept away in the tsunami of bloody change that is coming.

The bankers, oligarchs, politicians and corporate titans are worried. They have gone too far. They have gutted the wealth of their nations and their people. The people are beginning to turn on them. Internal strife will eventually erupt into world war. Nationalism, financial collapse, anger, despair, and the struggle for the remaining oil on this planet will lead to blood. Get your house in order.

1.8 Million Protest in Spain Demanding Separation Like Scotland

Posted on September 11, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

This was the largest demonstration in the history of Barcelona with 1,8 million people showing up exceeding all previous records. Demonstrators were waving independence flags and wearing yellow-and-red shirts with the phrase “Now is the time” shouting “Independencia!” as they swarmed into the semiautonomous area in northeastern Spain that hails Barcelona as its capital. What is clear, we are seeing the beginning stages of what we have warned about – the rise of civil unrest that leaded to nations dividing or being overthrown in revolutions. What has taken place in Scotland is by no means going unnoticed.

“Independence, independence”, has been the new cry of the people today in Spain in the center of the Catalan capital. Two main roads that converge at a place filled over a distance of seven miles with people. Here, a “V” for “Victoria” (Victory) was formed. The amount of protesters is very impressive and the police have been gearing up for this because they know what is coming.

Catalonia has 7.6 million inhabitants and this is a very important region for Spain. Despite the economic crisis and an unemployment rate of more than 22 percent, Catalonia is around one fifth of total gross domestic product of the Southern European country is generated. Proponents of secession from Spain think an independent Catalonia would achieve a higher standard of living.

Queen Isabella I of Castile and King Ferdinand II of Aragon formed Spain for they were married on October 19th, 1469 when Isabella was eighteen years old and Ferdinand a year younger. Their marriage united both crowns under the same family since they were cousins and this marriage formally created one kingdom – Spain. Our timing models showed the beginning of tension in 2010.8 and these demand will start to really rise 2015.1. So far, everything is on point. Spain appears to be divide by 2036.

Putin – War – & Return of Mercenaries – the Masquerade

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

Many people have written asking about Putin. The pundits are claiming the Russian Army is weak and could not wage war. Russia is actually looking at expanding its military policy re-targeting Europe and the USA as enemies, and rewriting protocols for justification of a defensive first strike with nuclear weapons. The greatest mistake that the West has made so far is to judge Russia through their own eyes based upon themselves with extreme arrogance and prejudice. Just because you would not want war does not mean your opponent has the same view. Additionally, the arrogance of the politicians can force war by their unyielding posture and inability to realize that they have left their opponent with no other option.

The arrogance that Russia is weak and could not afford war is a huge mistake because it is the West who cannot afford war in the middle of an economic implosion where we have a Sovereign Debt Crisis brewing on an unprecedented scale. War also gas been an escape valve for fiscal mismanagement and in this respect, war become desirable as a decoy to hide the inability of politicians to cope with managing the state.

The Russian military forces are composed of 150,000 officers and 766,000 soldiers on active duty. There are about 2,485,000 reservists. The Russian Ground Forces have 15,500 tanks, 27,607 armored fighting vehicles (AFV), 5,990 self-propelled guns (SPG), 4,625 towed artillery guns and 3,781 multiple rocket launcher artillery systems (MLRS), according to reports of the Military portal Global Fire Power. For the Air Force, Russia has about 3,082 airplanes, jets and helicopters. Russia has only about 114 combat helicopters compared to the USA’s 914 attack helicopters – not counting those bought by local civil police as in Florida.

The Russian Navy has 352 ships and boats. However, Russia has only one aircraft carrier – the Admiral Kuznetsov class. This was in the service in 1991. Moscow would like to supplement his holding by two helicopter carrier Mistral class from France.

Moreover, Russia has over 4,600 nuclear warheads ready for use in their collections. Additionally, Russia has 7,300 nuclear warheads in reserve. Furthermore, Russia has about 330 intercontinental ballistic missiles that could be targeted against the USA domestically. In addition, ten nuclear submarines are equipped with 160 missiles and there are another 576 nuclear warheads.

In the next few years, the rocket classes Bulava (SS-N-30) RS-24 Jars (NATO code SS-24) and Iskander-M (SS-26 Stone) are to be built. Russian technology in rocket manufacture is not to be under-estimated. Just in the past decades since the Cold War began, Russia has 117 different missile technologies that have been used. These systems are partly to extensions of older technologies. The missile defense system A-135 (NATO code ABM-3) is in Moscow and is ready for use. It protects the capital and the surrounding area from possible attacks. Unlike Iraq or Syria, the USA cannot simply invade with impunity. This is not a war that could be won in such a manner and the capability of nuclear attacks/defense warn that those levels of warfare are off the table.

In Russia there is conscription or the draft. Military service extends over twelve months. Like the 1960s in the USA, young Russians are trying to escape military service. In 2012, about 245,000 young Russians had evaded military service. Often doctors are bribed paying thousands of dollars to seek confirmation of some health unsuitability. Others have simply just not appeared at the recruiting office. General Nikolai Makarov complained that only 11.7% of Russians are suitable for military service between the ages of 18-27 years. An amazing 60% of the male population was unfit for military service according to the statistics. Either Russia enforces its conscription and uses only military doctors to provide rejection notices, or it moves to a private army.

Part of the problem is known as the “dedovshchina”, which is a rather brutal initiation ritual. The dedovshchina consists of humiliation, rape and torture of conscripts by older servicemen. The rumor that many have even died during such rituals has ironically been a deterrent to increasing the military. In 2010, there were more than 1,700 Russian military dedovshchina victims, reported Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies.

Add to this nightmare, far too many military barracks did not even have showers until the end of 2013. Then there is the notorious problem of Alcoholism, which is a widespread phenomenon throughout Russia. Approximately 40% of all working age Russian men die from the effects of alcoholism, reported the Guardian. There are countless Russian women almost everywhere these days from Tokyo and New York to the cities in Europe. Many are looking for husbands and do not want to have anything to do with Russian men for this very reason. It has been this macho attitude in Russia that creates the problem. The excessive consumption of vodka in Russia is seen as proof of masculinity.

To cope with these problems, Putin is actually looking to alter the entire system by adopting the privatization of the military sector. Yes – you read correctly! During the next few years, we will see the rise of private armies taking over tasks of the defense. This will break-the-back of the problems with the Russian military and propel it into a new era.

The largest private army in Russia’s Federal State is the Unitary Enterprise Okhrana. This was launched in 2005 by the Home Office and has proven to be a tremendous success. It now has more powers as regular security forces. Competitors in the market complain about the state privileges enjoyed by Okhrana, for it is becoming far more responsive than standard military units and has set the tone for a crack military force. Russia will cut its government military forces in half by as early as 2020 (war aside) and it will replace this with private armies consisting mostly of Russian ex-soldiers. This is the new Russian formulated Military Strategy. Most in the West do not even comprehend that this is a major trend.

This trend of altering the structure of the Russian military forces must be understood within its proper context. This has added to the Strange War that the West cannot quite grasp which has been going on in Ukraine. We have referred to these Russian soldiers without insignia as “Russian Tourists” with weapons. Our sources in the East even posed with one to provide direct evidence that they were in fact there (pictured to the right with our source cropped out).

This idea is not unique for Russia. The critics call Putin a liar and he has troops there in Ukraine. He has troops in Crimea yet can deny that they were there. Is Putin a liar, or just copying the USA in its use of private military units in Iraq? Nobody paid much attention to the privatization of the military even in the USA. However, if a head of state is then asked, are your troops there in someplace, they can SAFELY and HONESTLY deny that “their” troops are even there. Is Putin merely copying the USA, yet the Western press fail to make the connection to the fact that during the Iraq War, there were times when private armies for the USA had in fact outnumbered “official” troops on the ground. OOPS! It seems nobody wants to make that connection or comparison.

Nevertheless, let us look at this issue with unbiased eyes. The Iraq war just might best be remembered as America’s most privatized military engagement to date, with contractors hired by the Pentagon actually outnumbering troops on the ground at various points. That is CORRECT!!!!

This might come as a total shock, but mercenary armies are not new. The Hessians were 18th-century German auxiliaries contracted for military service by the British government. Britain found it much easier to borrow money to pay for their private armies than to recruit its own soldiers. The Hessians took their name from the German region of Hesse. The British used the Hessians in several conflicts, including in the Irish Rebellion of 1798, but they are most widely associated with combat operations in the American Revolutionary War.

The US moved to private contractors for the same reason. It was far easier to pay for private armies than to re-institute the draft for a war that was unpopular and undefined to begin with. The sheer number of private contractors used during the Iraq War was often overshadowed by events and the press did not comprehend this important trend shift. By 2008, the US Department of Defense employed 155,826 private contractors in Iraq – and 152,275 troops. This degree of privatization is unprecedented in modern warfare. It has been overlooked by just about everyone while Putin is being called a liar for troops without insignia that are in military uniform and are highly trained. Are they “official” Russian military or private contractors/combatants?

When the real history books are written, the most important lesson of the Iraq War will be the realization that this was the test case for a military privatization on an unprecedented scale. Large-scale use of private military contractors may relieve the government of pensions while it also entails risks for responsibility of private troops and raises the question are they even subject to the same standards of war crimes that would be committed by a government soldier?

Recent US experience with private security contractors, in particular, holds several critical lessons for the future.Private contractors have long been used in war in modern times, but they provided logistical support in Vietnam, the Balkans, and Operation Desert Storm in Iraq. However, the expansion into actually mercenary forces has reemerged on a wide-scale level. The US Army spent approximately $815 million ($163 million per year, or about $200 million per year in 2012 dollars) to employ contractors under its Logistics Civil Augmentation Program between 1992 and 1997. But between 2001 and 2010, that expenditure grew to nearly $5 billion per year. Of course, this latter cost coincides with US involvement in Afghanistan as well as Iraq. What sets the Iraq war apart in this evolutionary process of the military has been the growing role of these private civilian contractors in providing troops.

Throughout the Iraq War, the majority of contracted jobs of 61% continued to be base-support functions. The next-largest group of Department of Defense contractors (18%) were security contractors. They provided security services, such as guarding installations, protecting convoys, or acting as bodyguards. This outsourcing trend continued in Afghanistan, where there were 94,413 private contractors in 2010, compared with 91,600 US troops. This is a trend that seems to be overlooked. The British are also moving to privatization of military operations.

The lobbying of private military contractors is a completely new segment that NEEDS war to make money. Any assumption that this was some trend that was used only for the Iraq War is totally unrealistic if not naive. The private military and security industry is now incredibly large, powerful, and is entirely adaptable going with the flow of events. During the late 19th century, war was needed by the media to sell newspapers. It was Joseph Pulitzer (1847-1911) who was the father of Yellow Journalism making up stories that the Spanish Attacked the USA to create the Spanish-American War that was totally untrue. We are entering into a new era that nobody is paying much attention to these days and it is the private contractors who need war to exist.

There will be no scaling back of this industry. It is now broadening its territory, expanding into maritime security, providing security to business and governments in Africa, and exploring other new markets. We have returned to the age of roaming mercenary armies.

Merely disparaging Putin as a liar and using troops without insignia to pretend they are not Russian soldiers is missing the entire point. Putin was so successful in the Crimea and can also post the ceasefires in the Eastern Ukraine as a success of his policies, yet nobody seems to grasp the underlying trend that is NOT UNIQUE to Russia..

We must understand that this is a conflict between Russia and the United States. The German states are not allowed to maintain armed forces of their own, since the German constitution states that matters of defense fall into the sole responsibility of the federal government. At the federal level, Germany’s military expenditures have amounted to only 1.35% of the GDP (2012) making it among the lowest budgeted military forces in the entire world in terms of share of GDP. As of June 2014, the Germany military (Bundeswehr) has a strength of roughly 183,000 active troops giving it a rank of only 30th in the world and the fourth largest in the European Union. France, Italy and the United Kingdom all have larger forces because of WWI and WWII. In addition the Bundeswehr has approximately 144,000 reserve personnel (2010).

The real trend of military forces in the future is moving toward privatization to eliminate pensions. The greatest danger lies in the weakness of the political leaders in East and West to even negotiate no less communicate. There is no moral responsibility left within society any longer. So this is not a valid tool to say someone would not invade only because you would not. We cannot judge others by ourselves, nor can we ignore the trend to privatization.

The sanctions against Russia embolden Putin – they do not weaken him. They allow Putin to shift the blame to the USA and that fuels the seed for war. The only resolution is to provide economic opportunity for the average Russia and encourage Putin to move his nation away from Oligarchy and into a real economic trend of expansion. Oligarchy is merely the privatization of government industry – it was not a move toward economic freedom for the Russian people. Unless this trend can be set in motion, then we are headed into a very dark period with rising privatized armies that NEED war to survive. This is the very precise way Roman fell – its military needed civil war to gain economically.

History is composed of only patterns of human behavior. Like an onion, history is constructed from patterns laid upon patterns that then affect yet other patterns cascading through politics, economics, and society. Patterns can be in plain view, yet hidden by still other patterns within patterns. This is the structure that results in history doing nothing but repeating itself like a Shakespeare’s play where the story-line and plot are always the same, only the actors come and go with the march of time.

This inability to see the dynamic structure of the world leads the linear thinker to simply call it all just chaos for they remain blind to complex analysis of how interconnectivity creates patterns that simply mask the layers hidden beneath. What we call random is just patterns we can’t decipher and then what we can’t understand we call nonsense and a foreign language sounds like just gibberish. We cannot comprehend the present no less the future until we pierce the layers of patterns that mask everything. Life is one giant masquerade and if you turn around, there is simply another with a mask behind you.

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