COMMON SENSE – 2017

“Without the pen of the author of Common Sense, the sword of Washington would have been raised in vain.” John Adams

Thomas Paine was born in 1737 in Britain. His first thirty seven years of life were pretty much a series of failures and disappointments. Business fiascos, firings, the death of his first wife and child, a failed second marriage, and bankruptcy plagued his early life. He then met Benjamin Franklin in 1774 and was convinced to emigrate to America, arriving in Philadelphia in November 1774. He thus became the Father of the American Revolution with the publication of Common Sense, pamphlets which crystallized opinion for colonial independence in 1776.

The first pamphlet was published in Philadelphia on January 10, 1776, and signed anonymously “by an Englishman.” It became an instantaneous sensation, swiftly disseminating 100,000 copies in three months among the two and a half million residents of the 13 colonies. Over 500,000 copies were sold during the course of the American Revolution. Paine published Common Sense after the battle of Lexington and Concord, making the argument the colonists should seek complete independence from Great Britain, rather than merely fighting against unfair levels of taxation. The pamphlets stirred the masses with a fighting spirit, instilling in them the backbone to resist a powerful empire.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

“These are the times that try men’s souls: The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as freedom should not be highly rated.”

Thomas Paine – The American Crisis


THIS DAY IN HISTORY – Thomas Paine publishes Common Sense – 1776

Via History.com

On this day in 1776, writer Thomas Paine publishes his pamphlet “Common Sense,” setting forth his arguments in favor of American independence. Although little used today, pamphlets were an important medium for the spread of ideas in the 16th through 19th centuries.

Originally published anonymously, “Common Sense” advocated independence for the American colonies from Britain and is considered one of the most influential pamphlets in American history. Credited with uniting average citizens and political leaders behind the idea of independence, “Common Sense” played a remarkable role in transforming a colonial squabble into the American Revolution.

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QUOTES OF THE DAY

“Society is produced by our wants, and government by wickedness; the former promotes our happiness positively by uniting our affections, the latter negatively by restraining our vices. The one encourages intercourse, the other creates distinctions. The first is a patron, the last a punisher.”

Thomas Paine, Common Sense

“One of the strongest natural proofs of the folly of hereditary right in kings, is, that nature disapproves it, otherwise, she would not so frequently turn it into ridicule by giving mankind an ass for a lion.”

Thomas Paine, Common Sense

“Society in every state is a blessing, but government even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one; for when we suffer, or are exposed to the same miseries by a government, which we might expect in a country without government, our calamity is heightened by reflecting that we furnish the means by which we suffer…”

Thomas Paine, Common Sense

“When I was teaching children I began every day writing this on the blackboard: “Do to others what you would like them to do to you”, telling them how much better the world would be if everybody lived by this rule.”

Thomas Paine, Common Sense


QUOTES OF THE DAY

“These are the times that try men’s souls.”

Thomas Paine, The American Crisis

“Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigues of supporting it.”

Thomas Paine

“A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason.”

Thomas Paine, Common Sense

“If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may have peace.”

Thomas Paine

“Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.”

Thomas Paine

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THIS DAY IN HISTORY – An American hero is arrested in France

Via History.com

Thomas Paine is arrested in France for treason. Though the charges against him were never detailed, he had been tried in absentia on December 26 and convicted. Before moving to France, Paine was an instrumental figure in the American Revolution as the author of Common Sense, writings used by George Washington to inspire the American troops. Paine moved to Paris to become involved with the French Revolution, but the chaotic political climate turned against him, and he was arrested and jailed for crimes against the country.

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QUOTES OF THE DAY

“The mind once enlightened cannot again become dark.”

Thomas Paine

“These are the times that try men’s souls.”

Thomas Paine

“Independence is my happiness, and I view things as they are, without regard to place or person; my country is the world, and my religion is to do good.”

Thomas Paine

“Whatever is my right as a man is also the right of another; and it becomes my duty to guarantee as well as to possess.”

Thomas Paine

“Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigues of supporting it.”
Thomas Paine


QUOTES OF THE DAY

“The mind once enlightened cannot again become dark.”

Thomas Paine

“These are the times that try men’s souls.”

Thomas Paine

“If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may have peace.”

Thomas Paine

“Independence is my happiness, and I view things as they are, without regard to place or person; my country is the world, and my religion is to do good.”

Thomas Paine

“To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.”

Thomas Paine

“Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigues of supporting it.”

Thomas Paine

“A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason.”

Thomas Paine


QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Find out just what people will submit to, and you have found out the exact amount of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them; and these will continue until they are resisted with either words or blows or both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress.”

Thomas Paine


QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Power concedes nothing without demand. It never did and it never will. Find out just what people will submit to, and you have found out the exact amount of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them; and these will continue until they are resisted with either words or blows or both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress.”

Thomas Paine


WHY STOCKS WILL CRASH IN TWO CHARTS

“Things always become obvious after the fact”Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”  – Aldous Huxley

The S&P 500 currently stands at 2,126, fractionally below its all-time high. It is now 300% above the 2009 low and 34% above the 2008 and 2001 previous highs. Most people believe this is the new normal. They are comfortably numb in their ignorance of facts, reality, the truth, and the inevitability of a bleak future. When the herd is convinced progress and never ending gains are the norm, the apparent stability and normality always degenerates into instability and extreme anxiety. As many honest analysts have proven, with unequivocal facts and proven valuation measurements, the stock market is as overvalued as it was in 1929, 2000, and 2007.

Facts haven’t mattered, as belief in the infallibility and omniscience of Federal Reserve bankers, has convinced “professionals” to program their high frequency trading supercomputers to buy the all-time high. If central bankers were really omniscient and low interest rates guaranteed endless stock market gains, then why did the stock market crash in 2000 and 2008? The Federal Reserve’s monetary policies created the bubbles in 2000, 2007 and today. There was no particular event which caused the crashes in 2000 and 2008. Extreme overvaluation, created by warped Federal Reserve monetary policies and corrupt Washington D.C. fiscal policies, is what made the previous bubbles burst and will lead the current bubble to rupture.

Benjamin Graham and John Maynard Keynes understood how irrational markets could be over the short term, but eventually they would reach fair value:

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Graham

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” – Keynes

Graham’s quote reflects the difference between hope and reality. This explains the ridiculous overvaluation of Amazon, Shake Shack, Twitter, Linkedin, Tesla, Google, and the other high flying new paradigm stocks. Story stocks soar because the herd believes the stories peddled by Wall Street and company executives. Five of these six stocks don’t have a PE ratio because you need earnings to calculate a PE ratio. In the long run the market will weigh the value these companies based upon profits and cashflow. It is the same story for the market as a whole. There is no question who is to blame for what now amounts to a three headed hydra of bubbles poised to burst.

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QUOTES OF THE DAY

“Liberty must at all hazards be supported. We have a right to it, derived from our Maker. But if we had not, our fathers have earned and bought it for us, at the expense of their ease, their estates, their pleasure, and their blood.”

John Adams, 1765

“They tell us Sir, that we are weak — unable to cope with so formidable an adversary. But when shall we be stronger? Will it be the next week, or the next year? Will it be when we are totally disarmed, and when a British guard shall be stationed in every house? Shall we gather strength by irresolution and inaction? Shall we acquire the means of effectual resistance by lying supinely on our backs, and hugging the delusive phantom of hope, until our enemies shall have bound us hand and foot? Sir, we are not weak, if we make a proper use of those means which the God of nature has placed in our power.”

Patrick Henry

 “Society in every state is a blessing, but government even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one; for when we suffer, or are exposed to the same miseries by a government, which we might expect in a country without government, our calamity is heightened by reflecting that we furnish the means by which we suffer…”

Thomas Paine, Common Sense 


So What Can We Do?

Poland 5-15-2015

This Sovereign Debt Crisis is the nature of the beast we face. Understanding that crisis is half the battle for after the business cycle turns, there will be a lot of finger-pointing but you can bet it will never be pointing at government. It does not matter what country we are from, the people are the same. The audience last night in Warsaw was articulate, understood, and the audience made it known that they too distrust government. It really matters not our nationality. People never start wars, only governments which are not the people.

Smith -Higest Impertenance

It is also never private debt that causes the end of a nation, it is the debt of government. When people default, their assets are seized and they were often thrown in debtors prison. When government defaults, you get revolution. Adam Smith called this the highest impertinence of kings to pretend to watch over the debts of the people and not their own. This cycle of political change is about 309.6 years. The last wave began in the 1600s and culminated in the late 1700s, The wave before that is where capitalism began during the 14th century with the reintroduction of wages and taxes following the Black Death of 1346-1353.

Paine-Common Sense

The American people were not in support of the revolution until the very end like a Phase Transition. Those who wanted to leave Britain were only about 33%. Then a writer issued a pamphlet by the name of Thomas Paine entitled Common Sense. Paine explained that the nation or society is only the people and that government views itself as the nation yet is entirely different right from its origin. He further explained that “Society is produced by our wants, and government by our wickedness; the former promotes our POSITIVELY by uniting our affections, the latter  NEGATIVELY by restraining our vices. The one encourages intercourse (cooperation of people creating an economy) the other creates distinctions. The first a patron, the last a punisher.”

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