The BLS produced their monthly propaganda regarding our AWESOME jobs market. Trump will tout it as the GREATEST in history. The MSM will mouth the platitudes from their scripts. But, it only takes a few minutes of scanning the data to see through the bullshit. Here are a few observations:
Continue reading “JOBS STORY REALITY CHECK”
“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli
Every month the government apparatchiks at the Bureau of Lies and Scams (BLS) dutifully announces inflation is still running below 2%. Janet Yellen then gives a speech where she notes her concern inflation is too low and she needs to keep interest rates near zero to save humanity from the scourge of too low inflation. I don’t know how I could survive without 2% inflation reducing my purchasing power.
This week they reported year over year inflation of 1.9%. Just right to keep Janet from raising rates and keeping the stock market on track for new record highs. According to our beloved bureaucrats, after they have sliced, diced, massaged and manipulated the data, you’ve experienced annual inflation of 2.1% since 2000. If you believe that, I’ve got a great real estate deal for you in North Korea on the border with South Korea.
“The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is actually chaotic. The truth is that it is not The Iluminati, or The Jewish Banking Conspiracy, or the Gray Alien Theory. The truth is far more frightening – Nobody is in control. The world is rudderless.” – Alan Moore
Alan Moore, the renowned graphic novel writer, and author of the dystopian classic V for Vendetta, politically identifies as an anarchist. His view that all political states are an outgrowth of anarchy, with the biggest gang taking control and dictating how things will be run, is manifested in V for Vendetta. As an anarchist, you can understand why he is doubtful of conspiracy theories and an all-powerful entity controlling the world. He believes in a chaotic world competing gangs position themselves to gain power and control.
“We live in a badly developed anarchist situation in which the biggest gang has taken over and have declared that it is not an anarchist situation – that it is a capitalist or a communist situation. But I tend to think that anarchy is the most natural form of politics for a human being to actually practice.”- Alan Moore
The Guy Fawkes mask from V for Vendetta has been adopted by anarchist groups around the world, including: Anonymous, WikiLeaks, and the Occupy protestors. Moore’s positive view of the Occupy movement was based on his belief ordinary people had the right to reclaim what had been taken from them by criminal bankers. The initial impetus for the Occupy protests was the destruction of Main Street USA by Wall Street sociopaths, who not only escaped prosecution for their crimes, but were bailed out by the taxpayers they had pillaged and further enriched as captured politicians enabled them to get even bigger.
Several weeks ago I had to drive west on the Pennsylvania Turnpike to pick up my son after his sophomore year at Penn State. I’ve made this trip a dozen times over the last few years, since this is my second son attending Penn State, with a third starting in the Fall. It’s a tedious, boring, protracted, four hour trek through the rural countryside of the Keystone State. During these trips my mind wanders, making connections between the landscape and the pressing issues facing the world. I can’t help but get lost in my thoughts as the miles accumulate like dollars on the national debt clock.
More often than not I end up making the trip in the midst of bad weather. And this time was no different. The Pennsylvania Turnpike is a meandering, decades old, dangerous, mostly two lane highway for most of its 360 mile span. Large swaths of the decaying interstate are under construction, as the narrative about lack of infrastructure spending is proven false by visual proof along the highways and byways of America.
Well that was a bigly miss and doesn’t fit the economic recovery narrative. It fits the Atlanta Fed GDP number of under 1% in the first quarter. The previous two months of jobs gains were revised lower too. So much for that record level of consumer confidence. If these confidence polls were accurate, why would retailers be closing 3,500 stores and declaring bankruptcy at an astounding rate?
Wages remain stagnant. The number of jobs for people between the ages of 35 and 54 actually declined. To give you a real perspective on this awesome economic recovery, the household report shows the country has added 1,699,000 jobs in the last year. That’s 142,000 per month – pretty pitiful considering the working age population grew by 1,646,000 over the same time frame.
Here’s the best part. Over the last year 35 to 54 year olds LOST 319,000 jobs, while those over 55 years old gained 881,000 jobs. So Americans in their prime working years are still losing jobs, while Boomers who didn’t save enough for retirement are being forced to work in low paying Obama service industry shit jobs. The Boomer retirement meme is complete and utter bullshit.
As a cherry on top, the number of people holding multiple jobs went up 138,000 in March to a new all time high of 7.96 million. Of the 1.7 million jobs created in the last year, 503,000 were from multiple job holders.
Trump’s cackling about all the new jobs, declining national debt, and soaring stock market is about to be thrown back in his big fat orange face. Starting a war to distract from domestic policy failure is the oldest trick in the book. It ain’t gonna work this time. Bannon should explain The Fourth Turning to him.
And so the reflation trade is dead once again.
So much for that blockbuster ADP report. As we cautioned previously in our payrolls preview, the big risk to today’s payrolls report was to the downside, mostly as a result of the unseasonably cold March weather, and moments ago the BLS confirmed that indeed something snapped in March when only 98K jobs were added, roughly half of the 180K expected. This was the lowest monthly jobs number since May of 2016.
Continue reading “WHERE’S TRUMP’S TWEET ABOUT THESE HORRIFIC JOBS NUMBERS?”
Dear Bernie, as you continue in your never-ending “Fight for $15“, we thought you might benefit from a simple example of how economics work in a real life, functioning, capitalistic society. You see, Bernie, labor, much like your daily serving of crunchy granola, is just another “good” that businesses can choose to consume more or less of, depending on price. And, just to be crystal clear, when the price of labor (i.e. wages) increases, businesses tend to consume less of it. Finally, our dearest Bernie, when misinformed politicians radically disrupt labor markets by setting artificially high base prices, like your proposed $15 federal minimum wage, then businesses simply stop consuming labor completely and instead replace that labor with this “Big Mac ATM Machine.”
Say what?! A Big Mac ATM machine, where you can order real Big Macs, is coming to the Pru/Copley on January 31st. http://bit.ly/2jmOdwv
So, you see Bernie, pretty soon all those McDonald’s workers that you promised a “fair living wage” to make Big Macs, will have absolutely no wages at all courtesy of your “Fight for $15.”
Guest Post by Anthony Sanders
Both outgoing President Obama and lingering Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen are making claims about the number of jobs added under their leadership.
Yellen: “Job market strong, signs of wage growth.” And the “strongest job market in nearly a decade.”
Obama (during his farewell press conference last Friday): “Since I signed Obamacare into law, our businesses have added more than 15 million new jobs,”
Sounds impressive, unless you look closely at the numbers.
First, about the 15 million new jobs added since Obama signed Obamacare into law. The black box in the chart below shows the real average hourly wages since 2010 (through 2014). They were declining.
Continue reading “Cyclone! The Fed/Obama Labor Recovery In 5 Charts (And They Are Ugly!)”
“Companies are not going to leave the United States anymore without consequences.” – Donald Trump
The reaction to Trump’s deal to keep 1,100 Carrier jobs in Indiana has ranged from outrage to adoration. There are so many layers to this Shakespearean drama that all points of views have some level of credence. I’m torn between the positive and negative aspects of this deal. If you’ve read Bastiat’s The Law and Hazlitt’s Economics in One Lesson, you understand the fallacies involved when government interferes in the free market. Politicians and their fanboys always concentrate on the seen aspects of government intervention, but purposely ignore the unseen consequences.
I haven’t written many posts about the BLS bullshit unemployment propaganda for months, because it’s like beating a dead government horse. It seems Obama wants to go out on a high note of falsity. The BLS hilariously reported a 4.6% unemployment rate this morning. The last time the rate was really that low, wages were soaring at annual rates around 4% and interest rates were 6%.
We are lost in a blizzard of lies. Wages FELL in November. They are up a pitiful 2.5% over the last year – BEFORE INFLATION. With real inflation exceeding 5%, average Americans continue to see their standard of living fall.
Here are a few data points the cheerleaders and propaganda artists working on the corporate media shows will not readily reveal:
I could go on, but at this point what difference does it make. If you actually believe the bullshit being spread by the BLS, you probably voted for Hillary. So it goes.
Anyone with a functioning brain (eliminates CNBC pundits and bimbos) knows the true unemployment rate is north of 20%.
As this vitriolic, unpredictable, outrageously entertaining presidential campaign enters its final stages I find myself pondering what happens next. I was reminded of the last scene in the 1972 movie, The Candidate. The movie is about a young untested non-politician candidate for U.S. Senator in California who puts his fate in the hands of a veteran political operative and overcomes a double digit polling deficit to win a huge upset victory. His entire focus during the campaign was to win. In the final scene of the movie he is standing among the celebrating campaign staffers and the fawning press corp. with a befuddled look on his face. He grabs his political consultant campaign manager and pulls him into a room. As the press break into the room he asks, “What do we do now?” The question goes unanswered and the movie ends.
The chattering class on the boob tube is enthralled and aghast at every seizure, collapse, and deplorable comment by the two most disliked presidential candidates in U.S. history. The establishment and their corporate media mouthpieces are perplexed and irate that Donald Trump has overcome their propaganda campaign to be leading in the polls with 51 days to go. He is a non-politician who was behind by double digits in the polls a month ago. He hired professional political operatives who have molded his message, while his opponent has been lying about her health, lying about selling access while Secretary of State, and denigrating blue collar middle class Americans in campaign speeches. The momentum is clearly in his favor and absent a major gaffe during the debates he could win an unlikely come from behind victory in November.
Here we go again. The MSM is screaming about the FANTASTIC job growth in June. They fail to mention the May numbers were reduced to 11,000 jobs. It’s likely the Verizon strike has screwed up their little seasonally adjusted data models they use to fake the monthly numbers.
How come the MSM isn’t reporting the Household Survey numbers? It seems they are in major disagreement with the Establishment Survey. The fake unemployment rate actually jumped from 4.7% to 4.9%. Let’s look at some facts from the Household Survey that are getting buried by the feckless mainstream media:
There is exactly four months left until the presidential election. Expect more “positive” economic reports as the establishment will lie, cheat, and fake the data to get Crooked Hillary elected. Anyone with two functioning brain cells can see with their own eyes we are in the midst of an ongoing recession. But there are tens of millions of zombies who are distracted by their iGadgets, twitter, instagram, facebook, and the various adventures of Hollywood stars and professional athletes to notice what the ruling class is doing.
So it goes.
COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.
ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It’s 4.7%.
COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?
ABBOTT: No, that’s 23%.
COSTELLO: You just said 4.7%.
ABBOTT: 4.7% Unemployed.
COSTELLO: Right 4.7% out of work.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 23%.
COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 23% unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 4.7%.
COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 4.7% or 23%?
ABBOTT: 4.7% are unemployed. 23% are out of work.
COSTELLO: If you are out of work you are unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, Obama said you can’t count the “Out of Work” as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.
COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!
ABBOTT: No, you miss his point.
COSTELLO: What point?
ABBOTT: Someone who doesn’t look for work can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.
COSTELLO: To whom?
ABBOTT: The unemployed.
COSTELLO: But ALL of them are out of work.
ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work gave up looking and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.
COSTELLO: So if you’re off the unemployment roles that would count as less unemployment?
ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!
COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?
ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That’s how it gets to 4.7%. Otherwise it would be 23%.
COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number?
ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.
COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?
ABBOTT: Correct.
COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?
ABBOTT: Bingo.
COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to have people stop looking for work.
ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like a Democrat.
COSTELLO: I don’t even know what the hell I just said!
ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like Hillary.
Only a captured government drone could put out a report showing only 38,000 new jobs created, with the working age population rising by 205,000, and have the balls to report the unemployment rate plunged from 5.0% to 4.7%, the lowest since August 2007. If you ever needed proof these worthless bureaucrats are nothing more than propaganda peddlers for the establishment, this report is it. The two previous months were revised significantly downward in the fine print of the press release.
It is absolutely mind boggling that these government pond scum hacks can get away with reporting that 484,000 people who WERE unemployed last month are no longer unemployed this month. Life is so fucking good in this country, they all just decided to kick back and leave the labor force. Maybe they all won the Powerball lottery. How many people do you know who can afford to just leave the workforce and live off their vast savings?
In addition, 180,000 more Americans left the workforce, bringing the total to a record 94.7 million Americans not in the labor force. The corporate MSM will roll out the usual “experts” to blather about the retirement of Baby Boomers as the false narrative to deflect blame from Obama and his minions. The absolute absurdity of the data heaped upon the ignorant masses is clearly evident in the data over the last three months. Here is government idiocracy at its finest:
Number of working age Americans added since March – 406,000
Number of employed Americans since March – NEGATIVE 290,000
Number of Americans who have supposedly voluntarily left the workforce – 1,226,000
Unemployment rate – FELL from 5.0% to 4.7%
The mainstream media mouthpieces for the establishment peddle false narratives, disingenuous storylines, and outright propaganda to keep the ignorant masses confused, oblivious to reality, misinformed, and passively submissive to the opinions of highly paid “experts” and captured fiscal authorities. The existing social order likes things just as they are.
They reap ill-gotten riches, wield unchecked power, and control the minds of the masses. They are the invisible government consciously manipulating the minds, habits and opinions of the multitudes in order to dominate society, control the levers of government, and accumulate obscene levels of wealth through manipulation of the currency and domination of the banking and corporate interests.
One of the false narratives being flogged by the establishment propaganda peddlers is the mass retirement of Baby Boomers causing the plunge in the employment to population rate from 64.4% in 2000 to 59.7% today. They need to peddle this drivel, because the difference between these two rates amounts to 12 million missing jobs. The employment to population ratio is currently at 1984 levels. Any critical thinking person with basic math skills realizes the government reported unemployment rate of 5% is an Orwellian farce.
Obama and his government minions have doled out over $1.3 trillion to our yuuts so they could get educated. I bet you didn’t know that the funds aren’t all directed to the school for tuition and fees. The funds for books, rent, and living expenses are given directly to the student. How many responsible 18 to 21 year olds do you know. We already know that over 50% of the morons matriculating into college have 0% chance of graduating because they are dumber than a sack of hammers.
But they do know how to spend “found” money on iGadgets, HDTVs, booze, concerts, fast food, and they absolutely need to kick back on Spring Break after getting 3 D’s, a C in remedial maff, and an F in financial planning. It seems millions of these morons are spending their student loan money on a good time. They deserve it.
The best part is that Obama and his cronies wanted this to happen. The student loan scam was nothing but an artificial attempt to reduce unemployment and boost GDP. It’s been a huge success. Now that 40% of all student loans are in default, your government will come up with some asinine reason for writing off at least $500 billion. That means, you funded the spring breaks of these worthless pieces of shit. Happy Saturday suckers.
The essential college experience requires all-nighters at the library and, to some, a keg stand or two and a less-than-lucid spring break vacation. And much like a degree, tequila shots and beachside hotels don’t come cheap.
About one in five American students graduating this year who carry debt said they used student loans to pay for such expenses as vacations, dining out, and entertainment, according to a poll1 conducted in early May by Google Consumer Surveys on behalf of Student Loan Hero. Undergraduates finishing college in 2014 owed an average of $28,950 in student debt, the result of loans taken out to cover both tuition and living expenses.
But when is it living, and when is it living it up?
