Here we go again. The MSM is screaming about the FANTASTIC job growth in June. They fail to mention the May numbers were reduced to 11,000 jobs. It’s likely the Verizon strike has screwed up their little seasonally adjusted data models they use to fake the monthly numbers.
How come the MSM isn’t reporting the Household Survey numbers? It seems they are in major disagreement with the Establishment Survey. The fake unemployment rate actually jumped from 4.7% to 4.9%. Let’s look at some facts from the Household Survey that are getting buried by the feckless mainstream media:
- Only 67,000 more Americans were employed versus May. Slightly less than the 287,000 being reported by the MSM.
- The number of unemployed SOARED by 347,000, as people previously classified as not in the labor force suddenly decided to join the labor force. I wonder why? I wonder when the other 94.5 million people not in the labor force will decide to join the labor force?
- Our booming economy has created a grand total of 23,000 new jobs since January. WINNING!!!
- There are currently 223,000 less people employed than there were in March. That’s certainly an inconvenient factoid.
- The employment to population ratio has fallen for four straight months and at 59.6% is near three decade lows.
- In the first six months of 2016, the good old birth death excel spreadsheet adjustment has added 509,000 phantom jobs from all the companies opening for business. There are more companies closing than opening, so this number is completely false and is likely NEGATIVE 500k or more.
- If 287,000 jobs were added, indicating strong demand, why did wages rise a pitiful 0.1% and the workweek hours remained flat? Because the 287,000 is a made up lie by the BLS. Wages have risen by 2.6% in the last year, below the true rate of inflation. Shit jobs pay shit wages.
There is exactly four months left until the presidential election. Expect more “positive” economic reports as the establishment will lie, cheat, and fake the data to get Crooked Hillary elected. Anyone with two functioning brain cells can see with their own eyes we are in the midst of an ongoing recession. But there are tens of millions of zombies who are distracted by their iGadgets, twitter, instagram, facebook, and the various adventures of Hollywood stars and professional athletes to notice what the ruling class is doing.
So it goes.
Where The June Jobs Were
by Tyler Durden
Jul 8, 2016 9:48 AM
While the quantiative aspect of the June jobs report was stellar, so stellar in fact that not a single Wall Street forecaster expected it would happen, the next question is what was the qualtitative component of this unprecedented Establishment Survey beat. Here are the details of the 287K jobs supposedly added:
Leisure and Hospitality added 59,000 minimum wage jobs
Education and Health also added 59,000 mostly minimum wage jobs
Retail Trade added 30,000 certainly minimum wage jobs
With more than half of job additions being minimum wage one can see why the June average hourly earnings increase was below the expected 0.2% (and 2.7% Y/Y), instead printing at 0.1% and 2.6%.
Where were the rest of the job increases: Infromation +44K, Professional Services (ex temps) +23K, Government +22K, Financial Services supposedly added 16K just dont tell all those recently laid off bankers, temp workers rose by 15K, and somehow even manufacturing added 14K despite the ADP report seeing the biggest drop in mfg employment since 2010.
Were there any job losses: yes, in mining and logging, which lost 5K jobs and transportation and warehousing which saw a 9.4K drop as the heavy trucking collapse hits home.
Thanx for the BLS update – I have a difficult time rummaging thru their nonsense report.
I knew I could rely on Jim Quinn when I read the MSNC headline about unemployment dropping to below 5%. My dissonance meter spiked!!!
I truly thank you for the good reporting of numbers since there are very few reporting any truth.
Is there a source where I can see charts of the % population employed by age cohorts and by year?
I know the employment numbers are bad, I just want a form to share with people that is simple to understand and hard to manipulate.
June was the lowest sales month since ’09 or ’10.
Worse, there are few quotes for production quantity of anything. From a New York auto supplier, who has taken to paying on credit cards, to an American motorcycle manufacturer that is barely ordering this year, to bankrupted military suppliers and even more empty buildings and parking lots in our industrial and retail areas, this non-recovery had screeched to a crawl and my guess is the next leg down is going to be brutal.
Banks in Europe have started calling commercial loan refi’s, US banks are doing it in energy already. By empty buildings my guess is they’ll start screwing commercial mortgage holders (i.e. employers and landlords) the second Wall Street finally takes a hit on its return to reality, or destruction.
My biz is the final step before assembly. If our orders/sales are down it reflects manufacturing across the board in the U.S., Canada and somewhat Mexico, we lost Europe to Asia long ago.
This stuff used to scare/worry me, thank god it now kinda makes me smile.
We are reaching the point, finally, that all the graft, lies, corruption, stolen money, labor and life can no longer be hidden and ignored.
It’s the first step in rebuilding after the collapse.
Good luck to you all, hopefully if things go real bad fast we’ll meet on the other side.
The Bearish David Rosenberg Reemerges: “What If I Told You Employment Actually Declined 119,000 In June”
by Tyler Durden
Jul 8, 2016 2:46 PM
After several years of trying to put a positive spin on economic data in an attempt to validate the success of Fed policies, which in light of recent events have clearly failed with bond yields today touching new all time lows and market-derived inflation expectations about as low as they have ever been while even CNBC now admits that the only policy target of the Yellen Fed is to keep stocks as high as possible (there it is clearly succeeding for now), it was somewhat surprising to see Rosie “the bull” vaporize, and be replaced by the bearish side of David Rosenberg in such vigorous fashion today after years of hibernation.
The metamorphosis took place in what was a rather scathing take on today’s jobs report, about which he said that “it makes little or no sense that the business sector would be so cautious over committing capital to the real economy and at the same time embark on a sustained hiring spree.”
We agree. Here are the highlights:
What if I told you that employment actually declined 119,000 in June and has been faltering now for three months in a row? Yes, that is indeed the case.
Of course, the focus, as always is on the non-farm payroll report but keep in mind that while this is the data series that moves markets, it does not necessarily have the final word on how the labor market is truly faring.
Okay, so let’s get the pablum out of the way first. Nonfarm payrolls surprised yet again but this time to the upside — surging 287,000 in the best showing since last October and again making a mockery of the consensus economics community which penned in a 180,000 bounce…. when taking May and June together, they average out to be less than 150,000 versus the twelve-month average of 200,000 so even as the June data pulled a major upside surprise, the overall view that the pace of job creation is moderating remains fully intact.
It’s not as if the Household sector ratified the seemingly encouraging news contained in the payroll data as this survey showed a tepid 67,000 job gain last month and rather ominously, in fact, has completely stagnated since February.
Historians will tell you that at turning points in the economy, it is the Household survey that tends to get the story right.
* * *
The simple fact of the matter is that May and June were massive statistical anomalies. The broad trends tell the tale. Go back to June 2014 and the six-month trend in payrolls is running at a 2.2% annual rate and the three-month trend at 2.4%. A year ago, as of June 2015, the six-month pace was 1.9% and the three-month at 2.2%. Fast forward to today, and the six-month annualized rate is 1.4% and the three-month has slowed all the way down to a 1.2%. This is otherwise known as looking at the big picture.
But wait, Rosenberg said jobs actually declined? Here is his math:
When the Household survey is put on the same comparable footing as the payroll series (the payroll and population-concept adjusted number), employment fell 119,000 in June — again calling into question the veracity of the actual payroll report — and is down 517,000 through this span. The six-month trend has dipped below the zero-line and this has happened but two other times during this seven-year expansion.
See, it isn’t that difficult to have a critical eye on government data and refuse to drink the BLS Kool-Aid now. His conclusion:
The Fed may well be breathing a sigh of relief, but we are not out of the woods yet. My advice is to simply ignore those pundits who may conclude that a rate hike is back on the table any time soon.
Actually, the market is already doing that for you David: with stocks at all time highs and bond yields at all time lows, the algos are quite confident that the Fed will not hike for a long, long time. As for the underlying economy, alas that has not matter for nearly a decade, something have said constantly and something which even Rosenberg once again admits.
Source: Gluskin Sheff
Wonder how many people actually believe these employment stats when they come out?