AUTO SALES HAVE PEAKED – LOOK OUT BELOW

8 comments

Posted on 5th June 2014 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Charts always tell me a more truthful story than the written and spoke propaganda doled out by the corporate mainstream media. The bimbos and boobs on CNBC and the rest of what passes for financial journalism in the dying legacy media were ecstatic about the fantastic May auto sales. These mouthpieces for the establishment just regurgitate the lines written for them by their corporate PR departments. They blather about new highs and best sales since 2007. Maybe they could try using their brains and dig a little deeper to examine the underlying foundation of these fantastic sales.

With a cursory investigation they would discover that average loan length reached an all-time high of 66 months and the average amount financed exceeded $27,000. I’ve never spent more than $20,000 on a car, let alone finance $27,000. The percentage of people leasing those “sold” cars also reached an all-time high of 26%. And the cherry on top is the 34% of auto loans going to subprime deadbeats. “Selling” automobiles using easy money and extending loan lengths is the same strategy employed from 2002 through 2008. That worked out so well, I’m sure it will work just as well this time.

These same clueless dolts paraded on TV as financial journalists would do well to try and explain the chart below. When the economy is running on all cylinders the motor vehicle inventory to sales ratio hovers between 2.0 and 2.5. So at this current point in time, with auto sales reaching seven year highs, we have an extreme inventory to sales ratio of 3.0. Therefore, we have 20% to 50% too many automobiles for the current sales level. An inquisitive mind might wonder what happens next? Are GM, Ford and Chrysler going to allow 10 year auto loans and bump up their subprime clientele to 50%? The inventory continues to pile up on dealer lots, even with the extremely loose financing deals being pushed on the delusional American public.

Based upon history, only a fool, a CNBC economics reporter, or a Federal Reserve chairwoman would expect auto sales to accelerate above the current level. Real household incomes are back at 1998 levels, financing terms are at the loosest in history, the economy is contracting, and gas prices are near three year highs. Does that sound like a recipe for accelerating automobile sales? The data I see is telling me we have reached a peak in auto sales. The extremely high inventory levels will lead to major discounting by the auto companies and huge profit declines. These companies will have to cut back on production, further pushing the economy into recession. It’s amazing what you can see when your agenda isn’t to mislead, obfuscate and misinform.

8 Comments
  1. harry p. says:

    so what you are saying is a value shopper might be able to get a killer (not the kind GM knows) deal in the somewhat near future?

    the cycle of stupidity is amazing.

    5th June 2014 at 11:28 am

  2. Zarathustra says:

    Just from observation, I would say the sales of new BATS (big ass pickup trucks) are just swell around here. You can’t swing a dead cat without hitting one.

    5th June 2014 at 11:58 am

  3. Stigsy says:

    10 year car loan? Shit… the only 10 year period in my life where my income was consistent and predictable was from birth to age ten. After that, it’s been an annual crapshoot as to what I’m going to manage to make – and it’s never to be counted on until it’s in my hands. Both my cars are old and paid for and I don’t see that changing ANY time soon.

    5th June 2014 at 11:59 am

  4. Eddie says:

    harry p

    Great minds think alike. They are already offering 48 month interest free financing on the Volt I want. Now if bad sales will just drive the price down below wholesale, I’m drivin’ new wheels.

    5th June 2014 at 12:55 pm

  5. Welshman says:

    VW is really hurting as their models need updating. I like the no interest auto loans

    5th June 2014 at 2:05 pm

  6. Econman says:

    Fuck it. Have 30 year car mortgages!

    I heard the Europeans are going to try negative interest rates in a few days. The US banking criminals will try it too. Talk about suicidal.

    6th June 2014 at 1:16 am

  7. Econman says:

    Since Europe will try negative rates on $ in the bank, the USA should try negative interest rates on car loans!

    Pay ME to drive your shitty new computerized pseudo car.

    6th June 2014 at 1:21 am

  8. Iska Waran says:

    I’d pay extra for a car with actual bumpers. Not the plastic costume jewelry they call a bumper these days but a metal bumper that can absorb a bit of an impact. I’d like to skip the NSA tracking devices, please, although I would like the pussy magnet.

    6th June 2014 at 1:54 am

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