Chain Reaction of Problems Coming In 2015: “Collapse Will Be On A Scale That Is Many Magnitudes Greater Than 2008″

Guest Post by Mac Slavo

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If you’re like most Americans, then you are absolutely loving the price you paid this week for a gallon of gas. Just a couple of years ago it was not uncommon to see a $75 price tag for filling up your car. Today, you might be driving off for half that amount.

On the surface the recent drop in the price of oil has been a huge boost to America’s pocket books. But according to some analysts we shouldn’t be to quick to celebrate. The U.S. Oil and Gas industry has seen incredible job growth during the recession, with nearly 800,000 new jobs being attributed to domestic fracking and drilling expansion. At over $100 barrel, there was plenty of money to go around.

But with a sub-sixty dollar price point, it’s quite possible that all economic hell is about to break loose.

For many it has already begun.

Thousands of recently highly paid workers have been laid off after the oil price plummeted 50 percent in 2014. At least four American oil-producing states are already facing budget problems due to decreasing oil revenues.

[…]

In a study published last year, the Council on Foreign Relations warned the largest job losses caused by sharp decline in oil prices are going to take place in North Dakota, Oklahoma and Wyoming, where the number of drilling rigs is decreasing.

[…]

According to Tom Runiewicz, a US industry economist at IHS Global Insight, if oil stays around $56 a barrel till the middle of the next year, companies providing services to oil and gas industry could lose 40,000 jobs by the end of 2015, while oil and gas equipment manufacturers could slash up to 6,000 jobs.

These workers can earn more than $1,700 a week, much higher than the average $848 a week payment for other workers, the WSJ reported. When experienced workers lose their highly paid jobs, they stop paying their bills.

Source: RT

Those are the conservative estimates and they are based on a $56 price point, which is almost exactly where we are today. But Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations have suggested the price could drop to $40 or even as low as $20.

In such a scenario we could easily see widespread layoffs in an industry that currently employs over 10 million Americans.

But that’s not even the worst of it.

While losing 50,000 or even a million jobs will have a major impact on consumer spending, and thus the economy, the real problem is the massive amount of leveraged bets and debt currently in the system. There are trillions of dollars of derivatives and leverage at play in financial markets, much of it centering around the oil & gas industry. Should the price of oil remain at these levels or go even lower then a lot of major financial institutions are going to be in trouble.

In a recent interview with King World News, John Ing says that not only did Congress remove financial safeguards when they passed their latest budget bill, but by doing so they left America susceptible to a disaster that will make 2008 look like a dress rehearsal.

While everybody appears to be celebrating the record highs on Wall Street, we are also seeing a loss of public trust.  One key example of this loss of public trust is when you look at the $1.1 trillion spending bill in the U.S., where there was the dilution of the Dodd-Frank Act which now allows for bail-ins in the United States… This will lead to disastrous consequences…

[…]

Meanwhile, the derivatives monster has gotten even bigger.  With the drop in the oil price we have yet to see the impact of the credit default swaps and what this will mean for the stability of the global financial system. 

This will certainly set off a chain reaction of problems in 2015.

[…]

The 2008 collapse was just a dress rehearsal compared to what the world is going to face this time around.  This time we have governments which are even more highly leveraged than the private sector was.

So this time the collapse will be on a scale that is many magnitudes greater than what the world witnessed in 2008.

Full Interview: King World News via Steve Quayle

On top of all the other problems being faced by Americans – low wages, lackluster job growth, increased medical care costs, rising prices on essential goods, and more taxes to name a few – could the sudden drop in the price of oil could be the trigger that sends the whole thing crashing down?

As we saw in 2008 it can happen quickly. Within a matter of a few weeks trillions of dollars in wealth were vaporized and America fell into it’s worst recession since the 1930′s.

This time, as John Ing notes, the magnitude of the crash will be significantly worse and even the U.S. Treasury Department has warned that the system is so volatile that should there be even a single hiccup in our government’s ability to borrow money it would lead to a catastrophic effect lasting more than a generation.

America sits on the brink of the largest financial and economic collapse in the history of the world and the recent drop in the price of oil could be the Black Swan no one saw coming.

Those who fail to position themselves accordingly could experience serious damage to their wealth and well-being if and when this happens. Time is running short and now is the time to prepare. After the panic starts it will be too late.


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7 Comments
bb
bb
December 31, 2014 4:37 pm

Hell of a way to bring in the New year . Well I’m going to go get drunk. ALREADY got a head start.Best wishes to all here at TBP.I hope you have a great and happy New year. bb

Stucky
Stucky
December 31, 2014 4:54 pm

Jeebus will Rapture all Christians in 2015. Guaranteed. Oh … wait … that’s only been predicted 1.2 gazillion times before.

Maybe 2015 will be the year TSHTF, maybe not. Salvo is quite foolish for predicting a date. Some people never learn. But, doing so does insure a lot of reads.

card802
card802
December 31, 2014 6:26 pm

Wait……….Bail ins? WTF?

From Sprotts Thoughts newsletter on how long the price of oil could stay low:

“Russia and Iran are both highly dependent on energy exports to fund their governments and stabilize their currencies. Both have also been a thorn in Saudi Arabia’s side due to tensions between their geopolitical interests.

Saudi Arabia, backed by the United States, has butted heads with both countries on a number of issues — including Syria and the removal of Bashar al Assad.

Though the Saudis are feeling the pain in their wallets, they know that the Iranians and Russians have more at stake politically, at home and abroad, from a falling oil price. My belief (which is also held by many others), therefore, is that they may be willing to let the oil price slide for a while.

This is where it gets interesting, because it looks like the Saudis are playing on two tables at once.

Though they are allied with the United States on regional politics, Saudi Arabia has been worried by the oil renaissance in the United States, which has led to the US surpassing Saudi Arabia in oil production.

Unlike Saudi Arabia, the US mainly drills unconventional wells, which cost a great deal more than conventional production methods.

‘Netbacks’ on these wells, the returns after subtracting production and transportation expenses, vary. But overall, marginal producers in the United States will be hesitant to drill more wells at this oil price. The methods used to drill and maintain these wells (hydraulic fracturing, artificial flooding, etc.) also lead to higher decline rates than traditional wells.

The US has to continuously drill more wells to maintain current production levels and offset the high depletion rates of these wells.

The majority of reserves on an average well have been produced within a year and half. If US producers do not maintain the pace of drilling new wells, we will surely see US growth in energy production dwindle.

So far, with recent oil prices falling, we have seen a reduction in the rig count nationwide.

Furthermore, US producers use a greater portion of debt to finance drilling costs when compared to their Canadian counterparts. When the oil price was above $100 per barrel, this easy credit came pouring into the US oil sector. Now that oil prices have dropped, banks may begin to tighten their credit facilities, forcing companies to pay down debt instead of re-deploying their cash into new wells.

How long will they be willing to keep production at current levels? That is anyone’s guess, but they are unlikely to change anything until they feel that their interests are secure. Only then will they move to cut production in order to support the price of oil.

To sum it up, Saudi Arabia’s inaction on reducing supply is far from irrational. It is actually the most sensible thing to do in the near term.

The Saudis have over $750 billion foreign exchange reserves, which, according to Barclays, is enough to cover 30 months of imports. That provides us with a good ‘worst-case scenario’ for how long Saudi Arabia might acquiesce to a tumbling oil price.”

30 months is a long time to lose face, money, confidence and power, wonder if war will break out first?

JAH666
JAH666
December 31, 2014 6:26 pm

“After the panic starts it will be too late.”
Let the panic start. I’ve been out the door since 2009, have tried to warn people about what’s coming until I’m blue in the face. Very few believe it is coming, although it is painfully obvious that it is inevitable. I can’t believe that the PTB have held this sinking ship afloat this long, or is it this stinking shit?
Anybody seen the movie “Margin Call”? When the head of the firm that realizes the SHTF moment is about to happen, he comments; “It’s not a panic if you’re the first out the door.” Great movie.
I’m with bb, time to get drunk. Happy New Year!

EC
EC
December 31, 2014 9:46 pm
Chix Diggit
Chix Diggit
December 31, 2014 10:10 pm

A very blog you have excellent comments: Stucky he nicely funny. Maybe you post my articles and make money! Huge increase in traffic. Be sure to see my site. Check it out, tonight is the end of another year, that’s heavy if you can dig it. Some dudes write like they need to drop some mescaline ALL the race fascination is too much, get laid already. I got to smoke a wad of legal weed just to get out of that funk. Man check this shit out I got so fucked up past night I could not come down, I had to snort some bath salts just to feel normal. I stood by the window for eternity almost and time was flowing into me so much that pretty soon I could release some of it through my fingers, can you dig it? I can stop time too. you may not see the new years come so soon, I think I will stop the ball from coming down and then you can be like me in front of the wave of time, I was looking at the devilfish and forgot to release time again. Don’t let that happen to you. Anybody out there know where I can score some percocet? I tried cough syrup and codeine and a half a teaspoon of cafeine to keep me going for tonight maybe I can scrounge up some hash. I don’t like to do time travel too much or I’d go back to high school and steal some shit out my locker except I’m not sure if i want to cause my own death on account they’d kill me if I lost that much shit going unaccounted for, fuck, I’d be fucking dead for sure. So I think it aint cool to steal from your own self.
That’d be some fucking chain reaction, no shit.