FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART THREE

In Part One of this article I attempted to illuminate the concept of generational theory as articulated by Strauss and Howe in The Fourth Turning.  In Part Two I provided proof this Crisis is far from over, with ever increasing debt, civic decay and global disorder propelling the world towards war.

Seeds of Crisis & War

“The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to plan our way there. The Fourth Turning will try our souls – and the saecular rhythm tells us that much will depend on how we face up to that trial. The saeculum does not reveal whether the story will have a happy ending, but it does tell us how and when our choices will make a difference.”  – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

When you accept the fact history is cyclical and continuous linear progress is not what transpires in the real world, you free yourself from the mental debilitation of normalcy bias and cognitive dissonance. Things do get worse. There are dark periods of history and they recur on a regular cycle. And we are in the midst of one of those dark periods. This Crisis will not be resolved without much pain, sacrifice, bloodshed, and ultimately war. Catastrophe is a strong possibility. The core elements of this Crisis – debt, civic decay, global disorder – are coalescing into a perfect storm which will rage for the next ten to fifteen years. The rhythms of history only provide a guidepost of timing, while the specific events and outcomes are unknowable in advance. The regeneracy of society into a cohesive, unified community, supporting the government in a collective effort to solve society’s most fundamental problems seems to have been delayed. Or has it?

Maybe the answer can be found in the resolution of the last Fourth Turning. The seeds of the next crisis are always planted during the climax of the previous crisis, when the new social order is established. The American Revolution Crisis created a new nation, but left unresolved the issue of slavery. This seed grew to become the catalyst for the Civil War Crisis. The resolution of the Civil War Crisis greatly enhanced the power of the central government, while reducing the influence of the States. The rise of central authority led to the creation of the Federal Reserve, the implementation of income taxes to fund a vastly larger Federal government and the belief among the political class that America should intervene militarily in the affairs of other countries. The Great Depression was created by the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve; the New Deal programs were a further expansion of Federal government; FDR outlawed the ownership of gold; and America’s subsequent involvement in World War II created a military and economic superpower.

After sixty-two years of ever increasing debt; ever increasing taxes to support an ever growing governmental bureaucracy; ever expanding laws, regulations, and rules; currency debasement by the Federal Reserve; complete abandonment of the gold standard; and never ending wars of choice around the world, the next Crisis grew and blossomed from the seeds planted during the previous Crisis. The New Deal social programs, along with the extension of the welfare state by LBJ and subsequent administrations, have swelled to unprecedented unsustainable levels with unfunded liabilities exceeding $200 trillion. The promises cannot be fulfilled. The $18 trillion national debt increases by $2.3 billion per day; $96 million per hour; $1.6 million per minute; $27,000 per second. Does that sound sustainable? The legacy media sycophants cheer when consumer debt outstanding surges past $3.3 trillion, as their warped worldview applauds spending versus saving, consuming versus investing, and living for today rather than striving for a sustainable future.

The American people have lost their ability to think, reason, question, do math, control their urges, defer gratification, or realize when they are being lied to by the people they elected to public office. A culture of ignorance, celebration of the absurd, salutation of stupidity, honoring of the inane, being mesmerized by electronic gadgets, and satiating their egocentric shallow impulses on social media, is a sure recipe for societal collapse. Victory in World War II and becoming a modern day empire created the dynamic Eisenhower warned about. An immense military industrial complex has created enemies around the globe in order to keep the profits flowing in this welfare/warfare empire of debt. War is a racket for the rich. The peasants who buy into the incessant patriotic propaganda and volunteer are nothing but cannon fodder for the .1%. Keeping the masses fearful of phantom enemies and portraying foreign leaders as evil, is essential for the oligarchs to retain their wealth, power and control. Truth, facts, and long-term consequences are of no interest to the sociopaths running the show and pulling the levers. The dissent into darkness has been gradual and unnoticed by a purposefully distracted populace.

“As nightfall does not come at once, neither does oppression. In both instances, there is a twilight when everything remains seemingly unchanged. And it is in such twilight that we all must be most aware of change in the air – however slight – lest we become unwitting victims of the darkness.” Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas

What I’ve begun to realize about Fourth Turnings is how slow and methodical they are in reality. They will play out over twenty years at a pace dictated by events and the actions of the major players. I had been looking for a regeneracy event that would unify the country behind one leader. It is not to be. Since Fourth Turnings are driven by mood changes amongst the generational cohorts, the changes are subtle, incremental and not visible as identifiable events. Looking back in history, the election of FDR and the rollout of his New Deal policies began the regeneracy of the nation, but did not create unity or solve the economic problems of the country. There was an actual plot by prominent businessmen to conduct a coup and overthrow the government. A large contingent of the population did not support the New Deal or our entry into World War II.

The first battle of Bull Run and the subsequent mobilization of a half million more men by Lincoln marked the beginning of the regeneracy during the Civil War Crisis. It certainly did not unify the nation or even the North. It just marked the point where there would be no turning back or compromise. There were draft riots in New York City in 1863 and Lincoln thought he would lose the 1864 election. The Declaration of Independence and mobilization of an army in 1776 marked the regeneracy during the Revolutionary Crisis period, but did not unify the colonies or colonists into a cohesive unit. The Revolution was piloted by a minority of freedom minded colonists, while the majority remained neutral or obedient to the Crown.

I now believe the focus of this Fourth Turning will be the conflict between the government and its supporters, and those who oppose the welfare/warfare surveillance state controlled by Wall Street vested interests. The overbearing, militarized, captured Federal government has treated citizens like suspects since 2001. Those in the highest echelons of wealth and power have captured the three branches of government (executive, legislative, judicial) and are ruthlessly ransacking the remaining wealth of the nation. Their unquenchable desire for more wealth and power has never been more blatantly obvious than in the aftermath of the 2008 financial collapse created by their derivative orgy of debt which blew up in their faces.

All the “solutions” implemented since 2008 (TARP, ZIRP, QE1, QE2, QE3, $800 billion stimulus plan, government takeover of student loans, subprime auto loan bonanza, waging wars of choice, doubling of food stamp households, and the Wall Street foreclosure/buy/rent scheme) have been designed to benefit the vested interests in this corporate fascist authoritarian regime. The average person has been left nearly destitute, unemployed or underemployed, bereft of savings, stuck with declining real household income, and left with political candidates hand-picked and bought off by the men running the show behind the curtain. The mood of the country has darkened significantly since 2008 and will darken further when the bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate, created by the “solutions”, pop simultaneous in the near future.

The wave of dismay, disillusionment and blinding rage that will sweep across the land will mark the next phase of this Fourth Turning. The mistrust and cynicism toward government and politicians has already reached historic highs. Congressional approval levels reached 56% in 2001 and have been in a downward spiral since, with a plunge to single digits since the 2008 Crisis began. The number of people classifying themselves as independents reached an all-time high of 47% in 2014, up from 27% in 2006. An awakening minority now realize Democrats and Republicans are nothing but brands appealing to liberals or conservatives, but representing the ruling Party and beholden to Wall Street, the military industrial complex, mega-corporations, and not the American people.

As trust in the political, economic and financial systems implodes, the existing social order will crumble and be swept away in a torrent of chaos and upheaval. Severe misery will settle on our land and tear the fabric of our society. Internal strife will be compounded by external threats, with citizens fighting each other and nations going to war on a large scale. It has happened before and it will happen again. The realization this Crisis would be driven by the conflict between government and the people occurred to me in 2013 when Edward Snowden revealed the depth and depravity of a government which believes it to not be bound by the constraints of the Constitution, laws, regulations, or human decency.

The political class, along with the government apparatchiks, protected by their propaganda mouthpieces in the media, used the 9/11 attack as the basis to implement command, control and surveillance measures which make Orwell’s Big Brother seem like amateur hour. The hyperbolic level of propaganda in support of the vested interests is actually a sign of weakness, as their grip on the masses is weakening rapidly. Chris Hedges explains Washington as it functions today:

“Washington has become our Versailles. We are ruled, entertained, and informed by courtiers — and the media has evolved into a class of courtiers. The Democrats, like the Republicans, are mostly courtiers. Our pundits and experts, at least those with prominent public platforms, are courtiers. We are captivated by the hollow stagecraft of political theater as we are ruthlessly stripped of power. It is smoke and mirrors, tricks and con games, and the purpose behind it is deception.

The mass media blindly support the ideology of corporate capitalism. They laud and promote the myth of American democracy—even as we are stripped of civil liberties and money replaces the vote. They pay deference to the leaders on Wall Street and in Washington, no matter how perfidious their crimes. They slavishly venerate the military and law enforcement in the name of patriotism.

They select the specialists and experts, almost always drawn from the centers of power, to interpret reality and explain policy. They usually rely on press releases, written by corporations, for their news. And they fill most of their news holes with celebrity gossip, lifestyle stories, sports and trivia. The role of the mass media is to entertain or to parrot official propaganda to the masses.

It plays an essential role in the dissemination of official propaganda. But to effectively disseminate state propaganda the press must maintain the fiction of independence and integrity. It must hide its true intentions.”


It isn’t hard to connect the dots if you choose to open your eyes and not be blinded by normalcy bias or the nationalist propaganda spewed by the mass media. Snowden’s revelations of an NSA global surveillance network spying on U.S. and foreign citizens and approved by the highest levels of government should have caused outrage and mass protests.  Instead, the media propaganda arm portrayed Snowden as a traitor and spy. Snowden revealed that the NSA was harvesting millions of email and instant messaging contact lists, searching email content, tracking and mapping the location of cell phones, undermining attempts at encryption via Bullrun,  and the agency was using cookies to “piggyback” on the same tools used by internet advertisers to pinpoint targets for government hacking and to bolster surveillance.

The NSA was shown to be “secretly” tapping into Yahoo and Google data centers to collect information from hundreds of millions of account holders worldwide by tapping undersea cables using the MUSCULAR surveillance program.  The NSA’s top-secret “black budget,” obtained from Snowden by The Washington Post, exposed the “successes and failures” of the 16 spy agencies comprising the U.S. intelligence community, and revealed that the NSA was paying U.S. tech companies such as Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Verizon, and AT&T for “clandestine access” to their communications networks. Every electronic communication of every American is being collected by the government to be used at their discretion. It will be used against you when the time is right.

What kind of government clandestinely spies on its citizens; militarizes local police forces; conducts military training operations in major cities; wires its streets and highways with surveillance cameras; disperses peaceful protestors with water cannons, tear gas, pepper spray, and rubber bullets; and treats the U.S. Constitution like toilet paper? An authoritarian regime treats its people like this. Authoritarian regimes treat everyone like a potential enemy. They trust no one. Those in power care only for themselves and their lackeys.

The extreme wealth inequality created by dishonest means is leading towards strife and a systematic breakdown. Our entire system is built on lies, monetary machinations, propaganda and strict obedience to a vast array of laws, regulations and mandates. The ruling elite are desperate to keep their despotic bacchanal empire of debt from disintegrating in a catastrophic apocalypse of derivative time bombs, bank failures, corporate bankruptcies, and denial of their guilt. They recognize the consequences they face when the music stops. When people realize their money system is a fraud they’ll lose faith in all the institutions that make up a civilized society. Trust in politicians, corporate leaders, bankers, institutions, the media, parents, neighbors, and ourselves will evaporate in an instant. The anger and pursuit of those responsible will result in governmental collapse and domestic anarchy. The guilty and innocent alike will die.

Those in power are preparing for war – against you. Executive orders already in place, when executed, give the executive branch the ability to lockdown the country the same way they locked down Boston while bumbling about trying to capture two teenage kitchen utensil bombers. There are two things the ruling class fear the most – the internet and the approximately 300 million guns owned by citizens in 50 million households. The State, through the FCC, wants to “regulate” the internet to “protect” people from being told something other than what the State wants them to hear.

That First Amendment, with its free speech and freedom of assembly, is dreadfully inconvenient for the oligarchs. Truth and dissent will not be tolerated. Every mass shooting incident, caused by the shooters being pumped full of anti-psychotic prescription drugs, is used as an excuse to disarm the public. The Second Amendment right to bear arms makes it more difficult for government thugs to ignore the Fourth Amendment when they kick your door down during an illegal search and seizure operation. An armed populace is our only defense against the tyranny of a draconian government bent on retaining its stranglehold on the country.

After the 2008 financial collapse the guilty were not punished, prosecuted nor reproached for their criminally destructive schemes to loot the American people and the world. Instead they were bailed out, allowed to retain their wealth and power, and rewarded for their misdeeds with further riches provided by their politician puppets in Washington D.C. Evil won. The masses were frightened into keeping silent and believing bankers, politicians, and government bureaucrats had saved their world of bread (debt based consumption) and circuses (iGadgets & HDTVs). Ultimately, this Fourth Turning Crisis will come down to a battle between good and evil. It would be easy if the evil people revealed themselves and the good people could destroy them, but evil and good exist within all human beings.

As witnessed in previous Fourth Turnings, the majority will sit idly by paralyzed by fear or apathy. Most people wait to be led. But, as Samuel Adams profoundly noted:

“It does not take a majority to prevail … but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.”

The Federal and State government directly employs over 20 million Americans and millions more indirectly through their largess to arms dealers and other crony capitalist corporate entities. Over 145 million Americans receive a check of some sort from the Federal government every month, with over 100 million enrolled in a government welfare program. It is unlikely that many of these people will rise up against the government, unless their checks stop flowing (a distinct possibility). Every instance of governmental overreach, corruption, malfeasance, un-Constitutional act or ineptitude tips the scale further towards more people waking up and resisting. I believe the good in most people’s hearts outweighs the evil. Once a tipping point is reached and enough people defy the government, an avalanche of consequences will sweep away the existing social order. Justice for unborn generations will be sought. Keeping silent only allows the evil to grow ever more formidable and entrenched.

“In keeping silent about evil, in burying it so deep within us that no sign of it appears on the surface, we are implanting it, and it will rise up a thousand fold in the future. When we neither punish nor reproach evildoers, we are not simply protecting their trivial old age, we are thereby ripping the foundations of justice from beneath new generations.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago 1918-1956

In Part Four of this article I will focus on the drumbeats of war getting louder on a daily basis. Fourth Turnings always climax with war on a grand scale. There will be no escape.

106 thoughts on “FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART THREE”

  1. I don’t believe they fear the internet at all. Flick of a switch and you won’t know what’s happening ten minutes away. That said, this is running off the rails. I think paulsen made the right call in 2008, and I was no fan at the time. The problem was liquidity, and TARP solved it. Problem was, it was just too easy.

     
  2. The problem was solvency and TARP did not solve it.

    The Wall Street banks could have and should have been liquidated. Extremely rich people would have lost. Depositors would have lost nothing.

    You’ve bought into the big lie. A sucker is born every minute.

     
  3. Prior to TARP, we discussed most economic issues in billions. The difference between billion and trillion really doesn’t register to most people. Let the heist begin, this time for all the marbles. When you can create a trillion dollars a year out of thin air, you can corrupt everything. Everywhere. And they have

     
  4. Thank you for this thought-provoking series of articles. I look forward to part IV. I think that the idea that the seeds of destruction are always planted in the outcomes of the previous turnings is interesting in that it explains how we are never able to shake off the consequences of our ancestors actions. It is like a latent virus that just requires a trigger to set it off again, changing a little, enough to give it features and characteristics that are somewhat different than its previous incarnation, but similar enough that the link is established. I suspect that there was a very good reason why the education mandarins of the West eradicated most of the meaningful study of history at elementary and high school level; to have explored mankind’s history in any depth would be to understand mankind’s intrinsic tendency towards evil. One who is aware of the evil tendency that lurks within might be on guard against producing the same results. Mankind is inherently selfish and will not see or guard against anything that might not directly adversely affect him and that is why, perhaps, I have been so unsuccessful in ‘enlightening’ my colleagues at work. No one is interested in history or any deep thought or analysis. As long as they can go home and rest and ‘watch the game’ and plan the next holiday, they do not care about the greater world at large. We will all share in what is coming, the only difference is, you and I will know it is coming and they will never see or understand what happened and why.

     
  5. Jim, I agree we should have broken up the banks, no question. And I agree that solvency was the underlying issue. But liquidity was the more immediate problem. The money supply wasn’t large enough at the moment. TARP (and I’m not a fan) was sold as a stopgap to buy time to sort out the excessed and course correct. I believe that could have worked. Instead, they went in the other direction. Stimulus

     
    1. You are believing the official story. They didn’t even do with TARP what they said they needed it for. They saved foreign banks. There was no bank run causing a liquidity problem. It was done to keep GE, AIG and the rest of the criminal banks from having to declare bankruptcy. They were bankrupt. They are still bankrupt if we were using mark to market accounting.

      The stock market low coincides with the day the FASB caved and allowed banks to mark their books to fantasy. TARP was a fraud and did not save the system. It saved criminal bankers and CEOs.

       
  6. Admin

    I don’t understand the strategy of publishing these masterpieces on consecutive days … especially since the previous ones haven’t run their course in terms of comments.

    This is only curiosity on my part, not a criticism, as you’ve not done so before. I’m sure you have your reasons though, which you may or may not want to divulge … and that’s OK.

    OK, now I’ll go read this one.

     
  7. Jim, what would have been a better play at that moment, if your intention would have been an orderly unwind, and liquidation of the insolvent banks? As much as I hate TBTF, lots of other people, and entities with no blemish on their record, would have been destroyed, through no fault of their own. Sucker I am not, I just didn’t believe they would be allowed to double down the way they did, that really shook my belief in a self correcting system.

     
  8. Star, no it couldn’t. Printing has never worked and never will. What would have been so terrible if the crooked banks went under. We’d all be broke because of a shortage of fiat?? I call bullshit.

     
  9. Stuck

    It is actually one article, but it ran to 37 pages long in Word. I didn’t want to post it as one article because the websites that pick up my articles like them shorter. I decided to break it into four parts and do one per day.

    It seems to be working really well. The parts are getting published by all the regular sites and it looks like the visitor counts will be among the highest in TBP history. We’ll be well north of 20,000 visitors per day all week.

     
  10. I never said they used TARP the way it was intended. And the moment it was passed they started using it in ways quite different than what the bill clearly stated. And they (paulsen, geithner, etc.) seemed to imediately pivot to a position of saving the TBTF banks at any cost. Congress blinked, and I’m sure they were confident that they would blink again

     
  11. I have another computer science analogy: Alan Turing invented the Turing Machine. This is a ‘machine’ that reads instructions on a paper tape – it can load data / do simple arithmetic/ compare values. It is one of the first computer models.

    What is useful is that the Turing machine can be used to determine if a problem is solvable – it’s called the Halting Problem. Goes like this:
    Say we want to find if a number is ever or odd.
    The machine reads the integer, divides by 2 (in integer division the remainder is thrown away)
    multiplies the result by 2
    if the value = initial value, then the number is even (and it stops on the even answer on the tape).
    If the values aren’t equal it stops on the odd answer on the tape.

    However it’s not so simple – try to find the largest prime number – since you don’t what it is – the machine will never stop – thus the problem is not solvable.

    This Fourth Turning is similar. There seems to be no program (philosophy) that can recognize the input (event) that will cause it to be deterministic.

    I don’t remember the name of the Greek Philosopher who said: If you could plan for all contingencies – then you could predict the future.

     
  12. “The $18 trillion national debt increases by $2.3 billion per day; $96 million per hour; $1.6 million per minute; $27,000 per second. Does that sound sustainable?” ———- from the article

    Yes, it is sustainable. I will ‘splain why with some simple maf.

    1) Let us agree there are 75,000,000 people who work.

    2) Let us assume that they all make ONLY $7 bucks an hour.

    3) $7 bucks an hours is .0194444 cents per second.

    4) 75 million times .0194444 = $1,458,333 earned PER SECOND in the USofA.

    5) $1,458,333 available dollars minus $27,000 spent dollars = $1,431,333 left over!

    Clearly, any monkey can see that we can still spend a LOT more money before panic sets in.

    Shouldn’t I be able to get a job at the BLS??

     
  13. Starfcker

    The banks should have and needed to be liquidated. Millions lost their jobs anyway. TARP didn’t save any jobs, other than Jamie Dimon’s and Jeff Immelt’s.

    Liquidation doesn’t equal collapse. The bad debts would have been written off. The good assets would have been sold off to banks that weren’t reckless. Only the biggest were committing massive fraud.

    The country experienced the worst recession since the Great Depression anyway, despite TARP. Main Street wasn’t saved. Wall Street was saved.

    We needed a sharp deep Depression to cleanse the system with a reset. Instead, TARP, QE to infinity, ZIRP and the stimulus did nothing but extend the misery and make the coming collapse that much worse.

    TARP was a lie and did nothing to help anyone other than bankers.

    Guess why Bank of America now pays Bernanke $300k for a lunchtime speech?

     
  14. “When you accept the fact history is cyclical and continuous linear progress is not what transpires in the real world, you free yourself from the mental debilitation of normalcy bias and cognitive dissonance.”

    This is the MO, the OS, the Alchemy of Nature that makes the Blue Marble and its cosmictrotters i.e. globetrotters, sightseers vs prisoners grow, expand, transform, transition, create not just in material manifestations, but in the end and more importantly in what Jung called the Collective Unconsciousness and Consciousness. The linear progress is the MO/OS of The Matrix imprisoning the sentient beings residing here; albeit the cyclical pattern is not lost on Them.

    The cyclical nature (cycles within cycles) of this pit stop in the galaxy also is not always indicative of returning to point ‘A’ (history rhymes). Fibonacci’s sequence/spiral is more true to form I would guess. The question is are we ascending or descending the spiral?

    Alchemically speaking, and referencing the West’s 4 stages of the process vs the East’s which has 7/8/9 stages, the fourth turning appears to be in the “nigredo”…i.e. all nature is renewed after dying away and that in order to grow, an organism must first die.

    The Fourth Turnings is as its meant to be…..cuz that’s just the way it is on this isolated planetary outpost. The path of least resistance is to work within the limitations and confines that are natural to this temporary home of ours than to fight it. It is what it is.

     
  15. I’m getting crushed like a bug here, and that’s ok. If you have a business, and you pay your bills on 30 days, and your receivables come in on 60 days, sooner or later you hit a crisis point. Are you illiquid or insolvent? On that day, it doesn’t matter. You just need money so you can buy time to figure it out. That’s how TARP was sold

     
  16. Jim, your post at 5:45 is exactly right. I don’t disagree with any of it. But to liquidate a JPM or AIG doesn’t happen with the snap of the fingers. There was going to be a cost. They lied. No shit. And the heist was on, 4 months later with the stimulus, and all the QE’s.

     
    1. No one said liquidation would be done with a snap of the fingers. The reason passage of TARP became so urgent and the stories of financial collapse were circulating was because the very same banks who wanted the $700 billion also did all the trading on Wall Street. When Congress initially voted it down because their constituents told them to vote it down, Wall Street threw a fit and knocked the stock market down 700 points. It wasn’t ma and pa American selling. It was computer programs told to sell by the criminal Wall Street bankers.

      The everyday existence of Americans was the same. TARP meant nothing to them. They lost their jobs anyway.

      An orderly liquidation of the Wall Street banks would have required a President and Treasury Secretary with backbone and balls. Bush was a balless wonder. Paulson was a fucking Goldman Sachs billionaire.

      TARP was an outright fraud and did not benefit the average American in any way whatsoever.

       
  17. “I think that the idea that the seeds of destruction are always planted in the outcomes of the previous turnings is interesting in that it explains how we are never able to shake off the consequences of our ancestors actions.” —————- Phil

    That answers the question I had in Part One. I asked if the Fourth Turning is inescapable … cast in stone … can’t intelligent humans escape from the mistakes of the past, and prevent it?

    It appears the answer is a resounding “No!”.

    And if I read correctly … whatever happens in THIS coming Fourth Turning, that it WILL sow the seeds for yet ANOTHER Fourth Turning somewhere down the line! fuckmedead!!!

    And Ponce de Leon searched for the Fountain Of Youth? Fuck that shit.

     
  18. If you have a business and lend $10 billion to people and companies who aren’t able to pay you back and then you package those loans into tranches, get them rated AAA by Moodys and then sell them to your other friendly bankers, pensions funds and little old ladies, do you have liquidity problem or a solvency problem?

    The fucking banks didn’t have bills and receivables. TARP was a bailout for criminals and reckless bankers. Nothing more and nothing less.

     
  19. Honestly, I’m not arguing with you on that, at all. I’m saying that on that day in 2008, short of an enormous injection of liquidity into the system, there would have been no system. Banks should have been liquidated, bankers should have been jailed, and ill gotten gains clawed back. But while all that should have been happening, life needed to go on for the majority of americans. I was happy when TARP failed to pass the first time, until I realized my retired parents were about to become roadkill

     
    1. The system was fine. It was not going to crash. That was a lie.

      No one’s deposits in banks were at risk.

      The stock market went down 50% after TARP anyway. How much more roadkill were your parents going to be?

      You are arguing a false premise. The system was not going to cease. THAT IS A FUCKING LIE from the propaganda machine of government and media.

       
  20. Sorry Stuck, you misplaced a decimal above. 7*75,000,000=525,000,000 per hour divided by 3600 seconds in an hour = $145,833 a second. The gubmint is spending 19% of all wages, not 1.9%.

     
  21. How were bank depositor funds not at risk? Seems to me if the banks failed, depositors were gonna take a hit. Maybe there would be some insurance coverage, but where would the cash come from to cover the deposits? Sales of assets perhaps could have covered the deposits. I do not know what deposits to assets were.

     
    1. The FDIC guaranteed the deposits of average Americans up to $250k per account.

      Sheila Bair and her agency had liquidated the largest thrift in the world – Washington Mutual – in the prior year without one depositor losing one dime.

      It’s a lie that the system was at risk. Wall Street’s wealth and power were at risk.

       
  22. Admin wrote: “I now believe the focus of this Fourth Turning will be the conflict between the government and its supporters, and those who oppose the welfare/warfare surveillance state controlled by Wall Street vested interests.”

    If this is true, and it is quite likely, then the sooner the better as far as timing of the crisis. Each passing day creates more and more free-shitters dependent on the govt tit.

    As has been pointed out, most crisis seem to involve only around 10% of the population. The remainder sit around watching and munching popcorn.

    In this case, when 150 million or so free shitters suddenly get no free shit, get no SNAP cards, get no electricity, get no free medicine, etc., I suspect the percentage of those involved will skyrocket.

    Those free shitters have a tendency to burn down their own neighborhoods. Great loss that will be. And I do not know if they will be able to organize themselves enough to actually rally in support of the government.

    But no matter the numbers, in the end, the free shit/welfare state cannot win. At best, they may slaughter a great many of the productive. And boy, won’t that hep keep the free shit flowing. And if they enslave the rest of the productive, gee, won’t there be incentive to keep being productive.

    In the end, the free shit welfare state simply cannot win. The productive, one way or another, will no longer be able, or willing to do all the heavy lifting, and will head off into the sunset.

    It is the interim that will be most unfortunate. There will be perhaps 200 million people with no means of taking care of themselves.

    It really could get very ugly indeed.

     
  23. Jim, the government on every level long ago outsourced all their pension checks (and all the FSA stuff) to JPM. FDIC was 100 grand back then. They could have gotten scalped big time.. they never owned a stock in their life. Dow 600? Meh. Either way, it did turn out to be a heist. Because there was no one to hold anyone accountabl

     
  24. Admin – you can only imagine how happy I would be to be left with $250k.

    Fuck that. Go Wall Street! Bankerz are the best! Go go go!

    JP Morgan he’s our man! Keep him funded yes we can! Go-o-o-o-o-o JP!

     
  25. Seriously, tho, payouts of $250k would wipe out the most productive section of the US. I am not talking about the mega rich. I am talking about the top 10% – the small businessmen and small employers of the country. They would be decimated by that. The flow on catastrophe if they could only retain $250k would be unbelievable.

    But as you said, they did not lose a dime. But we are now talking a bunch of very large banks, not one or two. Perhaps the assets could cover the depositors in full. FDIC as bare coverage would be catastrophic if it was on a national level.

     
    1. Llpoh

      The FDIC would liquidate the banks and sell off the assets to other banks. The cash would satisfy the creditors in order of investor class. The deposits would not be used to pay the bank’s debts. Middle class and small business owners rarely have $250k in cash. And if they had any semblance of planning ability they would distribute their cash among a number of banks. A husband and wife could each have $250k in the same bank and be safe. A small business could divide $1 million among four banks and be completely safe.

      John Hussman explained the situation in July 2008, just before the collapse:

      On the subject of personal finance, if your bank account is FDIC insured in excess of your account balance, your money is safe. If you own a money market fund or other mutual fund, then even if your fund is held at or managed by a bank or broker that fails, the securities held within the fund are the property of the fund’s shareholders, not of the bank or broker, and can’t be used to settle the bank’s or broker’s obligations (peek at the prospectus anyway so you know what you own, since the value of the securities can certainly fluctuate). Ditto for stocks and bonds that you own in an account at an investment bank. Even the week Bear Stearns went bust, SEC chairman Christopher Cox was correct in saying that “At no time during the week of March 10th through the 17th were any of the customers of the Bear Stearns’ broker-dealers at risk of losing their cash or their securities.”

       
  26. ….the mental debilitation of normalcy bias and cognition dissonance….. Are you saying this is what’s wrong with me?

    I look forward to reading the last part. You really should think about organizing your articles in a book
    Oh well,maybe sometime in the future.

     
  27. “The American Revolution Crisis created a new nation, but left unresolved the issue of slavery. This seed grew to become the catalyst for the Civil War Crisis. The resolution of the Civil War Crisis greatly enhanced the power of the central government, while reducing the influence of the States. The rise of central authority led to the creation of the Federal Reserve, the implementation of income taxes to fund a vastly larger Federal government and the belief among the political class that America should intervene militarily in the affairs of other countries. The Great Depression was created by the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve; the New Deal programs were a further expansion of Federal government; FDR outlawed the ownership of gold; and America’s subsequent involvement in World War II created a military and economic superpower.”

    That’s one of the most trenchant passages on US history I’ve ever read.

    Your writing keeps getting better and your analysis is inarguable.

    Thank you.

     
  28. Let me restate my original point. TARP turned out poisonous. It ended up keeping the failed institutions alive, and showed the banksters how easy it would be to steal trillions from the biggest pile in the world, the US treasury

     
  29. Admin – lots of small businesses have more than $250k. My business is not huge in the scheme of things, and we can and do float many times that amount at times. Timing of incoming and outgoing funds can take you up/down hundreds of thousands or millions even. Lots of businesses have sales of $2mm and up. Just about every one of those would be at risk of losing major amounts of funding, depending on timing.

    For instance, if a company has sales of $12mm a year – not necessarily a huge business – their incoming checks/money will be a million a month, and it will all often lob in around the same time.

    And floating the money around to several banks is not an option in many cases. The company churn rate can be too high, and entanglements with the bank often tend to prevent it. Plus, if your primary banker finds out you are holding money in other banks, they tend to get a bit funny about things. They tend to cancel overdrafts, or raise/lower your rates, or be less prepared to help you in times of need. I know this for sure and certain. Companies with overdrafts will get their ODs cancelled if the bak gets a whiff they are holding funds elsewhere – the banks want as much security for the OD as they can get. Same goes for where you hold your personal assets – they want to see small business owners hold their mortgages with them, their savings and personal acts, etc. And they are very good at watching you.

    If I write a check for $500k for instance, or transfer money from my personal account, the transaction gets scrutinized. I will get a call asking what that is about. Every time. And I do not have an OD. Now, I can tell them to mind their own frigging business (which has on occasion happened), or I can do a song and dance, whatever. But bankers watch what you are doing with reasonably sizable slabs of money.

    It is not nearly as simple and easy as you are indicating.

     
  30. Llpoh

    You are overemphasizing the risk.

    The FDIC took over and liquidated hundreds of banks between 2008 and 2012 and no depositor of those banks lost a cent.

    No depositor has ever lost a penny of insured deposits since the FDIC was created in 1933.

    None of Bank of America depositors would have lost a penny if they were liquidated.

     
  31. From the FDIC website:

    Priority of Payments and Timing

    How quickly will the Receiver make payments on Receiver’s Certificates?

    By law, after insured depositors are paid, uninsured depositors are paid next, followed by general creditors and then stockholders. In most cases, general creditors and stockholders realize little or no recovery. Payments of uninsured funds only, called dividends, depend on the net recovered proceeds from the liquidation of the bank’s assets and the payment of bank liabilities according to federal statute. While fully insured deposits are paid promptly after the failure of the bank, the disbursements of uninsured funds may take place over several years based on the timing in the liquidation of the failed bank assets.

     
  32. Admin – not meaning to over-emphasize. Just trying to point out the consequences to a small business if it did happen. I doubt it would happen en masse. I just wouldn’t want to be the poor SOB that did get the shit end of the stick.

    Also, I thought folks might find it interesting how their money is watched by banks. If someone has a it of wealt or cashflow, it is monitored. And questioned ie “Hi, just noticed you shifted $xxx to YYY bank. Just wondered if there was a problem, or if we could offer any assistance to you” etc. Those guys have some serious balls that do that, but do it they do.

    Similarly, I just read where Connecticut monitors its high-wealth residents. Seems they pay a very significant portion of the state’s taxes. There are folks that keep an eye on these high net worth folks, and try to “motivate” them not to relocate to other less – taxing states, like say Texas.

     
  33. Hussman explains how it should have been done:

    However the final legislation is written, the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) being rushed through Congress will evidently be built around its single worst provision, which is that the Treasury will have authority to purchase distressed mortgage securities from U.S. financials.

    As I noted last week in An Open Letter To Congress Regarding the Current Financial Crisis, the sequence of bankruptcies that we’ve observed among U.S. financials has been almost exactly in order of their gross leverage (the ratio of total assets to shareholder equity). The reason for that is:

    1) as the assets of a financial company lose value, the losses reduce the asset side of the balance sheet, but also reduce shareholder equity on the liability side;

    2) as the cushion of shareholder equity becomes thinner, customers begin to make withdrawals;

    3) in order to satisfy customer withdrawals, the financial company is forced to liquidate assets at distressed prices, prompting a further reduction in shareholder equity;

    4) go back to 1) and continue the vicious cycle until shareholder equity goes negative and the company becomes insolvent.

    Let’s return to the basic balance sheet of a typical financial company before the writedowns:

    Good Assets: $95
    Questionable Assets: $5
    TOTAL ASSETS: $100

    Liabilities to Customers: $80
    Debt to Bondholders: $17
    Shareholder Equity: $3
    TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDER EQUITY: $100

    Now let’s write down the questionable assets – not all the way to zero, but to $2:

    Good Assets: $95
    Questionable Assets: $2
    TOTAL ASSETS: $97

    Liabilities to Customers: $80
    Debt to Bondholders: $17
    Shareholder Equity: $0
    TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDER EQUITY: $97

    This shortfall of protection on the liability side of the balance sheet is what causes a run on the institution, because once shareholder equity is gone, the only way to get at the debt to bondholders is for the company to declare bankruptcy. The concern has been that continuing bankruptcies would throw the whole financial system into disarray, especially for investment banks having lots of counterparty relationships with other institutions. But the reality is that for nearly all of these institutions, the cushion of debt to bondholders has always been more than sufficient to protect customers from losses even in the event of bankruptcy.

    What the financial system has needed most has been for Congress to streamline the bankruptcy process for investment banks, so that in the event of failure, the “good bank” (assets and liabilities, ex the debt to bondholders) could be cut away quickly and liquidated to an acquirer, leaving the proceeds as a residual for the bondholders. Indeed, that’s exactly how it works for regulated banks. What investors overlooked in last week’s panic was that we actually saw the largest bank failure in history – Washington Mutual – with absolutely no losses to customers or the U.S. government, precisely because the good bank was seamlessly cut away and sold to J.P. Morgan, wiping out shareholder equity, preferred equity, and subordinated debt, with partial repayment to the bondholders. Snap – just like that.

     
  34. Will the steeple ever realize the truth in these articles? I don’t know. However, they do know stuff has really gone wrong and they blame each other. This country is polarized and in no mood to work things out. I think civil war with more than 2 sides. There will probably be foreign intervention as well.

     
  35. The essay above are standard memes among the informed crowd. I summarize the 4th turning as a total and absolute loss of Confidence, trust and reliance of all currently governing bodies from the local police all the way up to the wall Street bureaucrats. No more fiat and no more techo surveillance state.

     
  36. Jim, I think you have lost sight of what a bank optimally did, before they got rid of glass-steagal. When you run a real world business, everything channels through your bank. Money comes in and goes out constantly. Gum that up, even for a couple of weeks, and a lot of businesses will be on their knees. Shareholder equity, preffered equity, subordinated debt, that’s got nothing to do with the business of budiness.

     
  37. If you have 100+ employees as llpoh does, 250k might run through the payroll account every pay period. That flow is nonstop, and the bank is the facilitater. Cut that oxygen while lawyers squabble over who gets what, and lots of businesses go dark in the meantime. And again, FDIC was only 100k prior to TARP.

     
    1. starfcker

      You still don’t get it. The Wall Street banks were leveraged 30 to 1. That meant that a 4% loss on their portfolio wiped them out. They still had trillions of deposits, good mortgages, and good corporate loans. The depositors were first in line. The FDIC wouldn’t have needed to use any of their funds to pay off the depositors. The bondholders and stockholders get stiffed in the liquidation process. And guess what? They were the rich motherfuckers pulling the strings.

      The liquidation of those banks would have benefited average people, senior citizens, and small business owners. The rich fucks would have been screwed.

      You really need to educate yourself on how bankruptcies work. Ignorance is a choice.

       
  38. Washington mutual doesn’t hold up as an example, they had assets of maybe 300 billion. JPM and citigroup were each probably 8 or 10 times that size. What did sheila bair have to work with, less than 100 billion? Didn’t make me feel safe. Bush sold out, no question, and I don’t think obongo really grasps any of this. It needs to crash. I’m cheering on that outcome. We aren’t that far apart

     
  39. WaMu wasn’t the only one. IndyMac dipped into the FDIC funds. Maybe Countrywide? Certainly other mortgage banks.

    Point is, I recall the FDIC was damn near broke. They’re supposed to be funded by deposits and they were waaaay short. But, I guess the gooberment could just replenish the money with fake money?

    I don’t understand how it all works. It just seems that if a few large banks, or some large and several small ones, or some combination of failure does exist where there just isn’t enough money to cover the depositors …. regardless of some FDIC “guarantee”.

     
  40. Stucky

    The FDIC is really just a case of smoke and mirrors. They only have around 1% of the amount that depositors have in the banks. When a bank fails, FDIC arranges for a larger bank to take over the insolvent bank. If a TBTF bank bites it, there is a bailout as FDIC could not come close to covering them.

     
  41. On TARP: Don’t really know what the controversy is about. You don’t need to dig into the details to know that TARP was the scam of scams. If freedom of thought somehow manages to survive, the 22nd century’s version of Gibbon will no doubt cite it as a major milestone to ruin. The party line now parroted by the Ivy League flunkees is that TARP “made money for the American taxpayer.” First of all, these goofs have zero credibility, one doesn’t even have to look closely anymore to know that they manipulate data to arrive at a desired conclusion. Their conclusions are meaningless. Secondly, even if they were not lying for the first time in their lives, if it takes a crisis followed by two votes to ram through a massive bill of theft, one that was opposed to by 90% of the people, to “make money,” your system is corrupted beyond repair. We had to destroy the village to save it.

    On the Internet Takeover: Glad this was mentioned. The FCC is going to pass the internet’s version of Obamacare, a 223 page bill to start to crush the freedom of information that has been a major annoyance for the rulers. Like Obamacare, it is marketed under the guise of “net neutrality,” or making the internet a “public utility” to make everything fair. Like Obamacare, it no doubt contains a litany of vague regulations that can and will be loosely interpreted in clever ways to crush dissent and the free spread of information. They don’t need to “flick a switch” to make the useful nature of the internet disappear, they just need to strangle free thought through endless licensing and regulation that will make the truth tellers hang up their hats due to lack of resources. If you value the things you read, it’s time to start cryptoprepping, download and save what you think you might need onto hard media not capable of wifi.

     
  42. Starfucker, you seem to have started with the premise that TARP was somehow meant to benefit main street. TARP was nothing but a MASSIVE fucking wealth transfer to the oligarchs. Period. End of story.

    The first clue was when the lobbied Congress to reverse course on what main street wanted. Second clue was when we were told that it absolutely, positively had to pass otherwise the entire economy would be gone by morning and then when the bought and paid for cocksuckers passed it and sent it to the White House, the President let it sit over the fucking weekend while he took a trip. Third clue was when the very first fucking thing the oligarchs did was to pay themselves MASSIVE fucking bonuses right out of the gate.

    There is nothing your owners do that is EVER intended to help you unless it helps them even more and even then it’s just an unavoidable happenstance that they will make up for later.

    Get a clue!

     
  43. Epic , Admin. I do think this essay-a damn fine albeit succinct history lesson, rolled up in financial analysis, topped off with warnings of dire consequences for a apathetic nation of self-deluded fools in the process of being viciously reamed by a Corporatocracy masquerading as a Republic which like feral hogs have broke into and ravenously consumed the peoples seed corn leaving the ignorant victims to face a bleak and terrible winter of scarcity and destitution which may be the undoing of this once fair and civil Republic- is your best. + 10,000

    Stucky- That answers the question I had in Part One. I asked if the Fourth Turning is inescapable … cast in stone … can’t intelligent humans escape from the mistakes of the past, and prevent it?

    It appears the answer is a resounding “No!”.

    Correct , because MPAI ( most people are idiots)

     
  44. Back in the 90s when I became aware of what the real world was like and who controls things I came to the conclusion I was born in the “sweet-spot” of American history. I was born in 1954 and benefited from the opportunities it provided.

    I no longer believe that because of what is coming and when. At 62 I expect (barring a sudden death) to live through the turmoil. I now believe the sweet spot to be born was somewhere in the 1944-1945 years. I would be 70 and may have died of natural causes and miss the final stages of a Fourth Turning.

    Admin—-Brilliant summaries. I have sent them to many of my friends.

    —————————-

    In all of history, no government became more honest, less corrupt, or granted its citizens more rights as it grew in size. E.L. 2011

     
  45. Stucky says:

    Point is, I recall the FDIC was damn near broke. They’re supposed to be funded by deposits and they were waaaay short. But, I guess the gooberment could just replenish the money with fake money?

    Funny that. FDIC is short cash , FICA is bleeding read ink and the nation’s infrastructure crumbles from lack of cash and , but somehow 29 trillion fiats magically appears from the Fed to bail out the global banksters. If you want to know who your rulers truly, just look to who has unfettered access to loading your ass up with enormous and unserviceable debt.

     
  46. “As trust in the political, economic and financial systems implodes, the existing social order will crumble and be swept away in a torrent of chaos and upheaval. Severe misery will settle on our land and tear the fabric of our society”

    That’s the point I make over and over again which falls on deaf ears for the most part, related to the fact, nobody wants to upend their lives to prepare for such an event. People sit in their suburban home in the midst of a large population center and rage against the government machine. They bloviate about how the people will rise up and take back power from the Government, they will be the first ones killed, and the thug down the street will pull the trigger not the Government.

    The thug down the street packing a thirty eight already lives like a fucking animal and has no respect for a human life, he’s tougher than shit. If you want to survive you better be meaner than that bastard, he already knows how to steal to survive and has no problem with it, he won’t even blink an eye, he will kill someone and sit down and eat a sandwich and never give it a second thought. When this system blows up it’s not going to be the Fucking Government you need to worry about it’s the hoards of hungry starving people that’s going to kill you, it’s the guy around the corner that when he knows law and order have broken down he has a free ticket to rape, rob, and steal. Look at the ferguson riot for a guide post, when the mobs take over the law will not hold them back they won’t even try.

    The Government will use the up armored men and machines to hold the centers of power and let the sheep kill each other, it’s not the cops dressed in battle gear you need to worry about it’s the former food stamp recipient.

    If you are not willing or able to survive the upheaval don’t worry about the Government that’s not your problem, it’s the mob you must survive. So at the end of the day it’s not you and your fellow citizens against the Government. It will be you against your fellow citizens, that’s an easy one for TPTB to set up, when they pull the Food Stamps it’s on.

    The mistake people make is they think law and order will hold, that right there my friend is the normalcy bias that kills.
    86b1e7637f25b85f68a75b4a061847f4_zpsbc216898.jpg

     
  47. Stucky wondered if Fourth Turnings are inevitable? Absolutely! We have short memories.

    Not to pick on Clammy but we’ve all heard her completely disavow anything and everything any of us have tried to tell her even while we point out that she is making the exact same mistakes many of us already made years ago. Each generation does that to some extent because their generation or situation is perceived to be “different” and none of the old fuckers understand. On top of that, Clammy’s life experience up to this point is so far removed from the experiences of those 80-90 years ago that she can have no frame of reference for what they went through even though they are the same things she is about to experience. We don’t learn from our mistakes because those of us alive today did not make those same mistakes…….yet.

    Another thing that dooms us to a lather-rinse-repeat cycle is that as parents we generally want to make things better or easier for our kids especially if we had it rough. While understandable, that is flawed thinking IMO. I don’t think we should intentionally make our children’s lives rough, but at the same time I don’t think we should be making their lives easier. Maybe if each generation shared the same types of hardships with their offspring we could break the cycle.

    99.9999% of humans rarely ever think beyond their own lifetimes. We think about getting our own little piece of the pie and maybe a little piece of pie for the kids but even that usually amounts to some miniscule monetary inheritance meant for college or something like that.

    The REAL owners of this world think in terms of building generational wealth. The Warburg’s and Rothchild’s alive today are planning for their great-great grandchildren and beyond. This started centuries ago and continues today. I gotta hand it to them…….they dreamed of owning governments, countries, continents and even the entire world despite the fact that they would never live to see their efforts come to fruition. However, in addition to building and leaving wealth to their descendents, they left plans and strategies behind and instilled them in their own children’s lives so they could do the same.

    Imagine if your ancestors had done the same for you? I don’t mean just leave you a pile of cash to piss away on hookers and blow but instill a desire and plan into you and your siblings to build real, lasting wealth with a goal towards benefiting not just your family but the world in good way instead of the evil, power hungry ways of the current oligarchs. If all of us thought and acted in terms of generational wealth instead of me, me, me, we would never find ourselves in messes like this.

    Thanks to the evils of central banking we are all raised to believe in what we all now realize was unsustainable from the beginning. In the process we pissed away all of our wealth, values, skills and intelligence chasing an illusion fueled by debt. The illusion makes it easy to forget what is really important. As a bonus we get to consume all our resources and damage the only environment we have.

    It seems to me though that every four, full generations adds to the world population in numbers far greater than those that die off. I’m not sure the planet can withstand another four, full generations. Maybe this will be the last fourth turning?

     
    1. Putin’s Top Security Advisor: “Current US Approach Leads To Inevitable Confrontation With Russia And China”

      Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/11/2015 21:00 -0500

      Following the humiliation of tonight’s much anticipated Eurogroup meeting in which for the first time ever, not only did Greece punk Germany’s stern finance minister, but the ensuing disarray was so profound the panicked European finance ministers couldn’t even find a quorum consensus to produce even the tersest of official statements, there was some hope that the second round of negotiations currently taking place in Minsk to find a solution to the Ukraine civil war would at least partially redeem Europe’s faltering negotiating reputation.

      Alas, as of this moment, that does not appear to be the case, and as Reuters reports citing a Kiev presidential aide, that Minsk talks on Ukraine crisis could last six more hours. “We’ve got another 5-6 hours of work. At least. But we should not leave here without an agreement on an unconditional ceasefire. There’s a battle of nerves underway,” aide Valeriy Chaly said in a Facebook post.

      Well, if it is indeed a “battle of nerves”, something tells who the victor will be, considering all his peers are just a little more preoccupied with the potential collapse of their artificial monetary and political union.

      Yet, just like the previous Minsk “agreement”, even if by some miracle there is a solution this time around, the probability peace will be maintained is slim to none.

      The reason is not simply because the Ukraine civil war will go on until there is a terminal partition between the pro-western West part of the country, and the pro-Russian eastern regions. The real reason may be what one of Vladimir Putin’s top security advisors, the secretary of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev said earlier today, when he told a Russian state newspaper that the U.S. was orchestrating events in Ukraine in a bid to overthrow Mr. Putin’s government. He also expressed certainty that the West’s financial aid for Kiev would only bring the Ukrainian economy to a “dead end.”

      “The situation in Ukraine is being used as a pretext for the active ‘repression’ of our country,” Mr. Patrushev, who ran Russia’s Federal Security Service during Mr. Putin’s first eight years as president, said in an interview with the Rossiyskaya Gazeta, published Wednesday.

      And, if accurate, Patrushev’s assessment is that the US will not stop short of what effectively will be world war: “The Americans are trying to involve the Russian Federation in an interstate military conflict, cause regime change [in Russia] and ultimately dismember our country via events in Ukraine,” he said.

      To be sure, Patrushev’s view that the Ukraine events have been orchestrated by the US from day one, is a widely shared one (and not only because it has been validated to a great extend by the leaked facts). The WSJ adds that “Mr. Patrushev’s comments reflect the views of some of the hard-liners around Mr. Putin, who have characterized the rise of a pro-Western government in neighboring Ukraine as an existential threat to the Kremlin leadership.

      They describe last year’s protests on Kiev’s Independence Square, which ended with then-President Viktor Yanukovych fleeing to Russia, as a U.S.-orchestrated attempt to encroach upon Russia and spur a similar uprising in Moscow.

      “The U.S. administration expects [its recent] anti-Russian measures to decrease quality of life for the population, give rise to mass protests and push Russian citizens to overthrow the current government using the scenario of the ‘color revolutions,’” Mr. Patrushev said, referring to pro-Western uprisings that occurred in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan from 2003 to 2005.

      To be sure, while Putin has repeatedly been compared to Hitler if mostly in the western press, the inverse is true in Russia, where people like Patrushev compare what Obama is trying to do to the actions of Hitler and Napoleon.

      He noted that both Napoleon and Adolf Hitler failed to conquer Russia. “In today’s difficult times, when the U.S. and its allies have taken the path of confrontation with the Russian Federation, it is necessary to recall again and again the lessons of history,” he said.

      So as futile diplomacy rages in this latest proxy war, the biggest loser are the common Ukraine people whose role is to be the pawn in the latest cold war between the east and west:

      Mr. Patrushev suggested that the West wasn’t dedicated enough to overhauling Ukraine’s battered economy. “I suspect that the West will bring the Ukrainian economy to a dead-end,” he said. “The aid sent to Kiev won’t lead to any practical results. No one is preparing to raise the standard of living in Ukraine or set up its young people in Europe for real.”

      Regarding the recent attempts to send lethal support to Ukraine, or to send the US army to train Ukraine troops, Putin’s security advisor didn’t comment on the possibility of the U.S. arming Kiev, but Russian officials have said that Moscow would interpret such a move as a direct threat. Then again he didn’t have to: as reported earlier “Russia Warns US, Supplying Arms To Ukraine “Will Have Dramatic Consequences.”

      In the interview, he repeated a claim often heard in Russia—that former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright once said Moscow had come to control too much territory and too many resources—as evidence of a U.S. desire to dismantle Russia. Ms. Albright has denied ever making such a statement.

      His punchline, as reported by Bloomberg: “the current US approach will lead to inevitable confrontation with Russia and China.”

      It hardly needs an explanation.

      Finally, Patrushev also brought up another theory often cited by Russian officials: that the U.S. is “trying to seed conflict” around the world as a way to increase its power.

      “Beginning with the global financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. decided to recover at the expense of others, including with the help of military adventurism and the destruction of full governments, employing the theory of ‘managed chaos’.”

      Considering 7 years after the great financial crisis, the world is still stuck deep in a glboal recession with central banks monetizing more debt than ever before in history while the US oligarchy has never been richer even as the global middle class is left for dead and told to just “buy assets” his observation is rather spot on.

       
  48. Admin,

    Does Neil Howe know about your work? I know that Strauss has gone on to his own personal fourth turning, but Howe looks like he’s still got skin in the game and I bet he’d be impressed with what you’ve done to expand upon it.

     
  49. Damn admin, if part four is any better than the first three parts I might pee my pants just a little!

    As flash said, I think this is your best ever and I haven’t even seen how it ends! I really envy your command of the subject and flawless skill at writing about it.

    If I still believed in such things, I’d suggest we all send this to our…cough, cough………elected leaders…cough.

     
  50. “The argument that the two parties should represent opposed ideals and policies, one, perhaps, of the Right and the other of the Left, is a foolish idea acceptable only to doctrinaire and academic thinkers. Instead, the two parties should be almost identical, so that the American people can ‘throw the rascals out’ at any election without leading to any profound or extensive shifts in policy” (Georgetown University Professor Carroll Quigley, Tragedy and Hope, 1966.)

    10251901_928165660569585_1461325231304557089_n.png?oh=35dbff3bcd23b08b0e89734c30a900c1&oe=55909265

     
  51. “The realization this Crisis would be driven by the conflict between government and the people occurred to me in 2013 when Edward Snowden revealed the depth and depravity of a government which believes it to not be bound by the constraints of the Constitution, laws, regulations, or human decency.”

    For me, the abuse of RICO, the idea of “arrest the money” and then learning of Echelon ended any trust I might have had in government. Already being an adult when LBJ did his Great Society nonsense was instrumental in sowing the seeds of suspicion. Call it the advantage of being a reasonably observant Olde Phart.

    Great series. An excellent summary and analysis of events of recent history.

     
  52. This part of the article misses a central point: Almost EVERYONE who works now is getting paid, directly or indirectly, through the Central State.

    Nurses? Doctors? Insurance co. employees? People who work for pharmaceutical and medical companies, pharmacists, Raytheon, Lockheed/Martin, etc.? ALL work for Uncle; if Uncle stopped paying Uncle’s bills, 90% of those jobs would disappear immediately.

    The USA is the largest economy on the planet that is purportedly “free” but is in actuality nearly fully socialized, (or better, Corporatized along the lines of Mussolini’s Fascist system where profits belong to the firm but losses are dumped on the collective.)

    When the Debt-fueled corporatist system can borrow no more (because borrowing does not solve solvency problems, as JQ notes), the collapse in the economy must be truly epic.

    For 50 years people have entered occupations and become embedded in a consumer-debt-based economy all based on false signals. How much “medical care” can actually be sustained without debt growth? How much higher-ed, or F-35 programs?

    The can has been kicked so far because EVERYONE knows (deep down) that when the music stops, the FLOOR drops out from under their feet. It’s not about finding a chair in which to sit, it’s about dancing on the 95th floor of a castle in the sky, and knowing that when the music stops, a long fall with a sudden stop is next.

     
  53. The further we get from 9/11 the more I start to see the symbolism of that event as a harbinger of what portends. Whatever you believe happened, whomever you might think is behind it, one thing is absolutely certain, no one, not one single individual prior to that day could have ever predicted the way that something so solid in appearance (the Towers/Pentagon/US Security/Intelligence) could be brought to complete and utter ruin because of a single outside cause. NO. ONE.

    Looking back on history there are all these symbolic events that are always refered to as “catalyzing” or “precursors” to what follows. It almost gives credence to the Illuminatti type conspiracy where they- whomever they bare- must show their hand as some type of binding agreement for whatever plans they have to come to fruition. It could just as easily be Divine or even satanic, or even as the Greek guy with the crazy hair says, “It could be aliens!”.

    When the music stops- and stop it will- the aftermath will be as catastrophic as the symbolic collapse of the Towers- World Trade, for God’s sake- and it will implode into rubble with the same speed and ‘shock and awe’ witnessed that day. The sad part, to me, is that it isn’t really that difficult to see what’s coming if you want to, butn worse that there simply isn’t anything that can or could be done to prevent it. It is a natural, completely expected phenomenon that will take place no matter what is done on any level.

    Did I mention that this is really a great essay? Wow.

     
  54. Yesterday I visited the local mall in my area. Seven-eight stores were closed or closing: Gymboree, J.C. Collins, ColdWater, Ruum, Delias, Deb’s, and one-two others I forgot the names of. Yep, economic recovery here folks, can’t wait for the bright forecast for the rest of 2015.

     
  55. “I recall the FDIC was damn near broke. They’re supposed to be funded by deposits and they were waaaay short.”

    Below is a chart of FDIC insurance funds compared to actual deposits (~$25B at FDIC vs. $9.2T in actuals):
    (Stucky, if this image appears too large, please advise on how I can see how big it is before posting.)

    Deposits%20vs%20Reserves%20vs%20Derivs_0.jpg

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/us-deposits-perspective-25-billion-insurance-9283-billion-deposits-297514-billion-de

     
  56. (Stucky, if this image appears too large, please advise on how I can see how big it is before posting.) ——- Rise Up

    1. When you hover over an image search result, you should see two numbers. For example, 300 x 400, The first number is how many pixels wide it is, the second is the length.

    Length generally doesn’t matter. (I’ve been telling Ms Freud that for years.)

    Width does. On WordPress here on TBP, the widest a picture can be before it overflows is 585.

    2. Another way to see the dimensions; right click on the pic, on the menu that pops up find and click on “View Image Info” …. you’ll see Location, Type, Size, Dimensions. Again, look at Dimensions where the first number is 585, or less.

     
  57. Stuck, thanks–I knew how to get the image’s size, just didn’t know what fits in WordPress.

    …and I bet Ms.Freud still doesn’t believe you.

     
  58. Thank you for these articles, I really appreciate all the work you did on them, as well as the effort of running this site.

    This cycle of history will play out as it will, despite encouragement from those of us who, like myself, would rather it happened sooner than later. My torment is watching my beautiful country slowly descend into Hell, much like watching a loved one become ill and die of some terrible disease.

     
  59. “I now believe the focus of this Fourth Turning will be the conflict between the government and its supporters, and those who oppose the welfare/warfare surveillance state controlled by Wall Street vested interests.”

    We can only surmise, as did Strauss/Howe, on what the catalyst for this conflict will be. Whatever it will be, it’s gonna have to be something that ignites–with a huge impact–the “opposition” alluded to above. Another civil war, with 3 or more factions? Can the country survive such a tragedy?

    Someone recommended the book “A Failure of Civility”. Having read some prep guides by James Wesley Rawles (of the “Patriots” series novels), I looked into “Civility” and Amazon had top reviews of it, so I ordered it. Probably an excercise in futility, as I live in the suburbs, but the book is supposed to be geared to that environment. To really steel myself for this possible outcome, I need to read some first-hand accounts of people who survived the Bosnian and south American civil wars and strife. I did view that recent video of the Ukranian attack on the airport and the horrific pictures of the poor soul who had his brains lying next to his head in the back of that truck. Somehow I didn’t puke, but hell, that was only a still picture…seeing it in person or as it happened is another matter.

     
  60. “On top of that, Clammy’s life experience up to this point is so far removed from the experiences of those 80-90 years ago that she can have no frame of reference for what they went through even though they are the same things she is about to experience. ”

    Not to snark and sneer at you, but I have divulged very little about my life in my writing.

     
  61. HS says: The sad part, to me, is that it isn’t really that difficult to see what’s coming if you want to, butn worse that there simply isn’t anything that can or could be done to prevent it.

    HS what’s amazing to me is people see it coming and don’t change a damn thing, that’s more asinine than the people that walk around with their head up their ass. The argument I attempted to make is people beat their chest about cops up arming, the Government spying etc, etc, all bad yes, but that’s not what’s gonna kill them. In a collapse situation the clear and present danger will be the citizens surrounding them. Why people can’t see that is beyond me. No it’s not, I know the reason. Normalcy Bias, they want to think law and order will hold, they don’t want to rearrange their lives and put themselves in a position to come out the other side. There’s going to be plenty of smart educated people who were in the know about the coming collapse that will be consumed in the first days of SHTF.
    You cannot prevent the comming collapse but you can survive it.

     
  62. Clam

    You say that you have divulged very little about your life. That is because you can’t stop whining long enough. Here is a clue about how to do things for yourself.

    I know a young fellow that started a business in the summer before he started his first year of college. He hired himself 4 Mexicans to do lawn/ landscape work. While that boy sits in class, his employees are earning him a living. He has been in business for two years now, not bad for a Gen Z, so seriously get a clue.

    That young man’s father is a builder and a real go-getter and I’m sure he rubbed of on his son.

     
  63. Sensetti

    Excellent points about one’s vampire neighbor being the correct entity to fear.

    Regarding why people won’t/don’t/can’t prepare I’d like to add one other item; doom fatigue.

    For example, I was fairly certain that the Y2K would have terrible consequences, at least for 6 months to a year. So, I prepped. Stored hundreds of gallons of water, six months food supply, and other stuff. Well, that was a dud.

    I was convinced, and firmly so, that Jesus would return in my lifetime … also around the year 2000, and lived accordingly …. in ways to embarrassing to recount. That was a dud.

    Then there are all those doom and gloom books I’ve been reading since the 1980s starting with The Population Bomb and we’re SOON ALL GOING TO DIE!!

    And the MSM loves doom; ice age … no, global warming … end of oil … fluoride …. end of tuna … oceans are depleted … bees are dying …. soil devoid of minerals …. on and on and on and on and on …

    A common and natural response (even if it’s wrong) at some point is just to say “FUCKIT, I’ll take my chances if it ever happens.”

     
  64. “That is because you can’t stop whining long enough.” —– Bea Lever

    Oh, C’mon! Giver her a break. She has done a LOT less “whining” than before, and contributing much better content. If I would get the abuse she gets here, I would have left a long time ago.

    Besides, who here doesn’t whine? Oh, errr, excuse me …. “complain” …. “have concerns” …. “is unhappy”.

     
  65. T4C don’t you know it was painful just getting to the ED with a pitchfork in your ass. I bet they hit him with Dilaudid at first site. Ouch.

     
  66. Sensetti

    Either someone was really really pissed at him or he didn’t look where he was going to sit.

    Lucky for him it looks to be only soft tissue damage. AND, how lucky was he to not have one of those tines go up his anal sphincter!!

    I’d love to see the X-ray or CT. No MRI for this dude.

     
  67. T4C

    Please provide a food and beverage warning before posting painful shit like this during lunchtime.

    That dude’s ass is in a serious hurtlocker. All things considered, that is to good for what needs to be done to the banksters.

     
  68. Oh. So solly Bea. Medical peeps (especially those that have worked ER/Trauma) are basically immune to looking at pics/videos/slice-and-dice type movies while enjoying a delicious meal.

    I think its called ‘conditioning’. 🙂

     
  69. Great article on the cycles of history.Added to this,they are saying this is also a Shmita year(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shmita).Why does the organized criminal cabal destroy our history?If you don’t know prepare to circle ad infinitum..A little note on the civil war.After 1865, remnants of the South engaged in guerrilla warfare until around 1922,when in a little town of Alabama? they realized it ain’t going to happen.The civil war ended.For more info on the USA,et al Amerika, some links.(http://www.scribd.com/doc/7242015/America-the-Babylon-1#scribd+++http://paranoidsonline.blogspot.com/2011/01/green-horse-rides-let-blood-games-begin.html)

     
  70. Clamster, don’t get your panties in a bunch, I could have said the same about anyone your age and been right unless you are really 90 and lived through the Great Depression.

     
  71. Humans are colorful, creative and imaginative… butt as a whole (and arse-a-hole)… they lack prescience and common sense. According to ‘Gold$tein’ (and Company): “The DNA is fatally flawed.”

    Two things:

    1. WHOM THE GODS WOULD DESTROY, THEY FIRST MAKE MAD(off).
    2. WHERE THERE IS NO INSIGHT, THE PEOPLE PERISH.

     
  72. An attempt at a start to a solution can be found with state’s legislators:

    The 17th is in violation of Article 5’s direct prohibition against such an amendment. An act that is in violation of the constitution from its inception, cannot amend the constitution to allow for that violation. And, the 17th does not amend Article 5.

    ” ~ an unconstitutional law, in legal contemplation, is as inoperative as if it had never been passed … An unconstitutional law is void.” – The legal encyclopedia American Jurisprudence

    The only reason the 17th stands today is by consent given in ignorance. It’s time to educate the states’ legislators of their Article 5 protected, lawful right, to equal suffrage in their Senate.

    It is time to press your state’s legislators into taking back their responsibility by repudiation of the unconstitutional 17th and taking back their Senate.

    I would also suggest to them, during this educational process, that the enabling law they write in taking back their Senate include a stipulation that the person selected must be native born to their state and shall have served the people of the state with at least six years in elected state office. (No carpetbagger buy-ins allowed.)

     
  73. Admin—Stop Coddling us. Tell us like it is. I feel my doppelganger has written this. My comments in part two, fits into part three perfectly.

    This is the best post so far. I can see so many people denying the truths, herein, and rationalizing them away. Denial, just isn’t a river in Egypt.

    The internet is a pox on the face of the elite and I fear will not long be tolerated.

    “God will change the consciousness of man”. I wonder if He’s using the internet to do it? hmmm The ways of God are mysterious, indeed.

     
  74. Dwain Dibley—The attempt to re-write the Constitution through treaties is to pull the wool over the peoples eyes. That treaties are equal to the Constitution maybe true in regard to compelling all the jurisdictions under the Constitution to recognize the status of treaties.

    However, to suggest that treaties can be used to destroy the Constitution is fallacious. The child of a parent cannot displace the authority of the parent. That the child can abrogate the parent from whom it gets its sustenance is illogical. In other words, treaties cannot be used to change the Constitution, which gives validity to treaties. To think otherwise is rebellious and inimical to the meaning of the contract between the people and the government, which is the Constitution.

    So, indeed, an unconstitutional treaty is indeed VOID. You should, all, remember this when those that would circumvent the Constitution thru treaties say that the treaty is now law as all treaties are equal to the Constitution. THEY ARE NOT! Treaties must be consistent with the Constitution. No exception.

     
  75. Treaties are subordinate to the Constitution, and what I’ve stated has nothing to do with treaties.

    The 17th is an alleged Amendment to the Constitution which unlawfully stripped the state’s Article 5 protected right to equal suffrage in the Senate and gave it over to popular elections by the people.

     
  76. Stucky says: Regarding why people won’t/don’t/can’t prepare I’d like to add one other item; doom fatigue.

    2 Thes 2:1-4 (NIV) Concerning the coming of our Lord Jesus Christ and our being gathered together to him, we ask you, brothers, not to become easily unsettled or alarmed by some prophecy, report or letter supposed to have come from us, saying that the day of the Lord has already come. Don’t let anyone deceive you in any way, for that day will not come until the rebellion occurs and the man of lawlessness is revealed, the man doomed to destruction. He opposes and exalts himself above everything that is called God or is worshipped, and even sets himself up in God’s temple, proclaiming himself to be God.

    2 Thes 2:5,9-12,15 (NIV) Don’t you remember that when I was with you I used to tell you these things? The coming of the lawless one will be in accordance with the work of Satan displayed in all kinds of counterfeit miracles, signs and wonders, and in every sort of evil that deceives those who are perishing. They perish because they refused to love the truth and so be saved. For this reason God sends them a powerful delusion so that they will believe the lie and so that all will be condemned who have not believed the truth but have delighted in wickedness… So then brothers, stand firm and hold to the teachings we passed on to you, whether by word of mouth or by letter.

     
  77. Hardscrabble Farmer–Nature ascribes to equilibrium. When things are out of balance, mans hubris in thinking that he can outwit Mother Nature aside, Mother Nature proves to be the compelling force.

    I think that the Illuminate, if it is real, is busy pulling levers like the Wizard of Oz behind the curtain, not really grasping the consequences of its pulling and hoping for the best. I remember as a kid mixing two chemicals together with explosive results and not having a clue. My ears are still ringing. Kids must have a guardian angel looking after them or none would survive childhood.

    When people embrace unreality because it is the norm and reality reasserts itself (the music stops). people are caught unaware. What comes out of it is the realization: “How could I have thought that?”

    Ruff times are a commin’ .

     
  78. Dwain Dibley–I know. I was only trying to extrapolate on your thought–“an unconstitutional law, in legal contemplation, is as inoperative as if it had never been passed … An unconstitutional law is void.”

    The latest jibe on the treaties is that they are equal to the Constitution. Which is why Agenda 21, Carbon Taxes Pacific Trade Agreement and Gun Control (think confiscation) among others is being introduced thru treaties.

    Don’t take offense.

     
  79. Homer, I would recommend to anyone, study chrissy cuomo’s little hissy fit the other day when speaking to roy moore. He is a perfect liberal. He thinks law (untethered to morality) should reign supreme. Even when pressed, he can’t bear to challenge his basic assumption. He is defending the faith, at all costs.

     
  80. starfcker–YUP! We are a nation of laws, at least for the 99%. We will bind you by the chains of the Law, which we, the 1%, make of course so–“Resistance is futile.” You will be “assimilated” into the NWO.

    Greece is saying, “No”.

     

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