MAYBE VALUATIONS DO MATTER

9 comments

Posted on 13th January 2016 by Administrator in Economy

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The raging bulls were so sure of themselves a few months ago. Valuation measures were for suckers. This time was different. It’s the new Obama economy. Profits are so old school. I suddenly sense a little panic amongst the big swinging dick Wall Street traders. Not too much scorn and laughter being directed towards John Hussman lately.

I wonder if the brainless twits and shills on CNBC will be telling their audience that the S&P 500 is now lower than it was in May 2014. That’s right. Anyone in the stock market over the last 20 months hasn’t gained a penny. The S&P 500 is now down 11% from its all-time high in May 2015. Only 40% or 50% more to go to reach fair value.

Remember the can’t miss hot stocks being touted by Wall Street and their CNBC mouthpieces? The IPOs were being rolled out like crazy in 2015 and the stocks would soar to heights not seen since the good old Dotcom bubble. Let’s take a look at those fantastic can’t miss opportunities of a lifetime:

GoPro – Down 83% since August

Twitter – Down 65% since April

Fitbit – Down 63% since August

LinkedIn – Down 27% since March

Netflix – Down 20% since December

And of course there are the heavyweights that everyone must own:

Amazon – Down 17% in last two weeks

Google – Down 10% in last two weeks

Facebook – Down 14% since November

And this is just the beginning folks. These heavyweights are overvalued, overbought, and over owned. They will need to fall at least 50% to be fairly valued.

9 Comments
  1. Administrator says:

    Cramer Does It Again: Camera-On-A-Stick Crashes 30% After Slashing Guidance, Cuts 7% Of Jobs

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 16:32 -0500

    Who could have seen this coming? Week after the CEO ordered his mega-yacht and 6 months after Jim Cramer said “it was going higher,” GoPro has just slashed Q4 revenue guidance by 15% (from $510.9mm to $435mm) and has addtionally decided to layoff 7% of the workforce. For now, GPRO is halted… but Ambarella is not (and is collapsing 6% after hours) leaving them down 65-80% since Cramer said “buy buy buy.”

    Camera-On-A-Stick Statement:

    GoPro, Inc. today reported certain preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2015.

    GoPro expects revenue to be approximately $435 million for the fourth quarter of 2015 and $1.6 billion for the calendar year. Fourth quarter revenue reflects lower than anticipated sales of its capture devices due to slower than expected sell through at retailers, particularly in the first half of the quarter. Fourth quarter revenue includes a $21 million reduction for price protection related charges resulting from the HERO4 Session repricing in December. Non-GAAP gross margin for the fourth quarter of 2015, excluding the impact of price protection and a charge of between $30 million and $35 million to cost of revenue for excess purchase order commitments, excess inventory, and obsolete tooling is anticipated to be between 44.5% and 45.5%. Non-GAAP gross margin for the fourth quarter of 2015 is anticipated to be between 34.5% and 35.5%. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the fourth quarter of 2015 are estimated to be between $150.0 million and $152.5 million. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at December 31, 2015 totaled approximately $475 million.

    Reallocation of Resources
    Over the past two years, GoPro’s headcount has grown by more than 50% annually, to more than 1,500 employees at the end of 2015. To better align resources to key growth initiatives, GoPro has implemented a reduction in its workforce of approximately 7 percent. The Company estimates it will incur approximately $5 million to $10 million of restructuring expenses in the first quarter of 2016, substantially all of which will be severance costs.

    GPRO crashes 30% after hours…

     

    13th January 2016 at 5:17 pm

  2. Westcoaster says:

    Good summary, Admin. How low can you go???

     

    13th January 2016 at 5:39 pm

  3. DRUD says:

    I was watching the S&P between 3-4 Eastern today …it looked like they (PPT) tried to defend 1900, actually were above around 2:25…but it closed below anyway. I’m not much for predicting markets, but this could be the end of the bull(shit) delusion. It’ll be interesting to see how the rest of week plays out.

     

    13th January 2016 at 5:49 pm

  4. Suzanna says:

    we’re seeing it now!! Hold on to your hats.

     

    13th January 2016 at 6:12 pm

  5. ragman says:

    Cash(money market) is looking’ better and better. No gains, but no losses either. Interesting how the “equities market” sucks if the fucking fed doesn’t put trillions of created dollars into it. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P can go to zero. I don’t really give a shit!

     

    13th January 2016 at 6:34 pm

  6. DRUD says:

    Saw this over at ZH…funny and true.

     

    13th January 2016 at 6:42 pm

  7. IraK says:

    Administrator…
    Some people’s messages you just can’t believe because you know or suspect they’re trolls.
    Jim Cramer is one. Whatever Cramer recommends do the opposite. Experience has shown that the direct opposite of his advice is the best advice.
    Now if some known troll were making that comment about Jim Cramer’s suggestions, which troll would believe? Well, me, of course.

     

    13th January 2016 at 9:49 pm

  8. Old Dog says:

    BTFD!!!!!

    lol

     

    13th January 2016 at 10:08 pm

  9. SpecOpsAlpha says:

    http://fortune.com/2016/01/13/analyst-here-comes-the-biggest-stock-market-crash-in-a-generation/?xid=yahoo_fortune

    The Great Crash?

     

    14th January 2016 at 7:21 am

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