Guest Post by Andrew MacLeod
Donald Trump’s mother, Mary-Anne MacLeod, comes from the Isle of Lewis in Scotland. So does my great grandfather, John MacLeod.
Despite our frighteningly proximate DNA and our similar hair colour, I’d rather not have Trump in the White House. Neither would many Americans, yet it is now very likely that the Republican nominee will be the next American president – and he could win in a landslide.
The political establishment underestimated Trump’s campaign, and their naivety is coming back to haunt them. When I was an army officer, we were taught that the greatest error was to underestimate the enemy. If one underestimates the enemy, then one will attack with too few resources and be soundly beaten – like America in Vietnam, Russia in Afghanistan and the Germans in Moscow.
Right from Trump’s first days on the campaign trail, those opposing Trump have radically underestimated the threat. The Huffington Post even put him on its entertainment page. It did not analyse the opposition accurately, and the threat grew.
Over the past few months, the media moved from treating him like a joke to assuming that he would “fall after Super Tuesday”. He didn’t. Then they claimed that his comments on abortion would put a stop to him. They didn’t.
Later, losing Wisconsin was supposed to be a turning point – but it certainly wasn’t. Eventually it was assumed that Cruz and Kasich would team up and force a brokered Convention. They didn’t, and Trump has won the Republican nomination.
Now the media, having failed to learn its lesson, says Trump will be caught out by his tax affairs, or will fail to “get out the vote”, or that the polls show that both Sanders or Clinton could beat him.
The underestimation continues, and ignores the fact that this November, Americans aren’t just voting on the president. They are voting for the Senate, the House, many local governors, judges, prosecutors, sheriffs. Even though dog-catchers are no longer elected, many municipal positions are.
Republicans will turn out to vote for all the other offices. While there, they will be faced with the choice of holding their nose and voting for Trump, or, one presumes, Hillary Clinton.
Democrats are kidding themselves if they think Republicans opposed to his candidacy won’t vote for Trump when it comes down to the wire. Consider this: in the 2008 North Carolina Democratic primaries, 38 per cent of Clinton’s supporters said they’d vote for John McCain over Barack Obama and 12 per cent said they would not vote at all. When election day came around, most shifted their view and voted for Obama.
The same shift is happening within the GOP now. Trump’s approval rating is rising. Republican anti-Trump forces are retreating like Napoleon from Moscow, leaving bodies in their wake. Opponents such as Paul Ryan are casting around to find reasons to support Trump.
Winning and losing elections in America is not about pinching votes from the other team. It is getting your team out to vote. In the US, voter turnout hasn’t exceeded 60 per cent for nearly 50 years. In 1968, 60.7 per cent of eligible voters actually managed to drag themselves out of bed and exercise a right that people had fought and died for. In 1996, less than 50 per cent bothered turning up.
Getting out your own voters is far easier, and far more important, than pinching votes from the other side. In both 2008 and 2012, Obama ran a massive “get out the vote” campaign, inspiring many first time voters with the promise of hope, change and making history by electing the first black man to the White House. Voter turnout in 2008 was the highest since 1968.
Clinton, on the other hand, does not inspire that level of emotion. The so called “woman card” that she plays is not motivating women either. In the Iowa caucus, only 14 per cent of women under 30 voted for Hillary; in New Hampshire it was around 10 per cent. Young women went for the ‘old white guy’ – Bernie Sanders.
Trump is accused of having a “woman problem”, but so does Clinton. Both Clinton and Trump are widely unpopular, but Trump has one advantage: he is inspiring first-time voters to turn out on polling day.
Trump is gaining votes in the “rust belt” from people who would not normally vote Republican, or even vote at all. A recent poll even had Trump him behind Clinton, by only 0.3 per cent. His momentum is upward. Do you see where this is heading?
Clinton will get fewer votes than Obama. Trump will get out far more first-time voters than the Republicans have ever achieved before, while regular Republican voters will hold their noses and punt for Trump.
Unless the left stop dreaming up reasons for Trump to lose, and start campaigning like he might win, the 2016 election will be the landslide for Trump.
Andrew MacLeod is visiting professor in the Policy Institute at Kings College London, a corporate director in the US and a former UN official
Too Much Whiteness on Their Minds
My mind is clearer now
At last, all too well I can see
Where we all soon will be
If you strip away
The myth from the man
You will see where we all soon will be
Donald, You’ve started to believe
The things they say of you
You really do believe
This talk of God is true
And all the good You’ve done
Will soon be swept away
You begun to matter more.
Than the things You say.
Listen, Donald I don’t like what I see
All I ask is that You listen to me
And remember, I’ve been Your right hand man all along
You have set them all on fire
They think they’ve found the new Messiah
And they’ll hurt You when they find they’re wrong
I remember when this whole thing began
No talk of God then, we called you a man
And believe me, my admiration for You hasn’t died
But every word You say today, is twisted round some other way
And they’ll hurt You if they think You’ve lied
New York your famous Son
Should have stayed a great unknown
Like His father carving wood
He’d have made good.
Houses, Banks and Offices
Would have suited Donald best
He’d have caused nobody harm, no one alarm!
Listen Donald, do You care for Your race?
Don’t You see we must keep in our place?
We are occupied, have You forgotten how put down we are?
And our conquerers object, to another noisy sect.
And they’ll crush us if we go too far, if we go too far
Listen, Donald to the warning I give
Please remember that I want us to live
But it’s sad to see our chances weakening with every hour
All Your followers are blind, too much whiteness on their minds
It was beautiful but now it’s sour, yes it’s all gone sour
God Donald, it’s all gone sour
Listen, Donald to the warning I give
please, remember that I want us to live
Come on, come on, listen to me
“exercise a right that people had fought and died for.”
When did that happen? There’s no right to vote. Voting is a privilege, or as people used to say, a franchise to be exercised by eligible citizens, and not all citizens are eligible. If voting was a right, anyone who was visiting the US on an election day would have a right to touch the screen.
When a man writes “exercise a right that people had fought and died for.”, he’s full of shit. Andrew is full of shit. Consider the source:
“Andrew MacLeod is visiting professor in the Policy Institute at Kings College London, a corporate director in the US and a former UN official.”- from the article at The Independent (.uk)
Every time I look at you
I don’t understand
Why you let the things you said
Get so out of hand
You’d have managed better
If you’d had it planned
Now why’d you choose such a backward theme
And such a strange hand?
If you’d recant today
You could reach the whole nation
‘Murica in 2016 has no real communication
Don’t you get me wrong
Only want to know
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Who are you? What have you sacrificed?
Donald Trump
Superstar
Do you think you’re what they say you are?
Donald Trump
Superstar
Do you think you’re what they say you are?
Tell me what you think
About your friends at the top
Now who d’you think besides yourself
Was the pick of the crop?
Bernie was he where it’s at?
Is he where you are?
Could Hillarita move a mountain
Or was that just PR?
Did you mean to die lose that?
Was that a mistake or
Did you know your messy defeat
Would be a record breaker?
Five months to go folks . . . .
Will it be –
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Or,
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(if there is no “unfortunate Incident” leading to – )
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Or even maybe –
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(Be careful what you wish for Bernie – with the extent of division in today’s America, the “Revolution” you wish for may not be Political, but possibly more along these lines)
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Can we agree on one thing? Trump shines an honest light on alot of our shared problems? Never mind for the moment how he might address those problems, only that he is honest in pointing out that trade, immigration, healthcare, schools, corrupt governance and all the rest, first needs to be identified. He will only be truly aware of what his options are after being installed as President. I think he knows that, and why you get a constant stream of conflicting answers from him depending how the questions hit him atm. How he gets the job done is less important than that the majority supports his continuing to shine the light on all the cockroaches that infest our government. He has so far in my estimation not wavered in calling a spade a spade. We need a pugnacious bastard to call bullshit on all this corruption. The world is getting too small to be able to afford the fraud and corruption and since he hasn’t yet turned the light off to what ails us, he got my vote.
I’m asking this question here because it seems to be an active thread.
What paid for activities is anyone doing today?
My wife is at Kings Dominion which is an amusement park. She said it isn’t crowded at all. Amusement parks are always packed when I go. Could this be a sign of a bad economy?
It isn’t Trump I think needs to not be underestimated, it’s the entire world ruling establishment -ranging from bankers and insider political leaders to Heads of State and their controllers- that I worry will be underestimated.
These ruling world elitists can and do pull off everything from assassinations to wars to economic collapses to protect their positions and interests as our real but unseen rulers.
Trump needs to be very, very careful about who is on his security team and our country needs to be very, very careful about our situation and ready for the worst as well if it looks like Trump will win the elections. The ruling elite will not go down without a fight, and a fight like no one has ever seen before IMO.
if you align yourself with the unindicted , heaven help you. trump is flawed but the best we got for this go around. Jesus is not running.
No matter “who” wins, the divisions are already very evident, and very substantial. Trump wins? The non-White “community” has clearly stated “their agenda”, and whether we like it or not, they DO have “experience” killing others. Hillary wins? Might as well be honest and say “The MIC Wins” since that will be the outcome. Barry? Comes across as very well-meaning and very sincere in his beliefs, but having him as President might be “interesting for the wrong reasons”. At least he’d accelerate the slide into the financial abyss.
As for voting, postal or otherwise –
http://www.salon.com/2011/09/27/votinghack/ – 5 years ago so hopefully these vulnerabilities have been addressed. However –
and –
http://www.blacklistednews.com/Hillary_Clinton_and_Electoral_Fraud/50978/0/38/38/Y/M.html
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Barry?? Should have been Bernie (doing too many things at once and relying on “Autocorrect”)
Mind you –
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Maybe I’m clairvoyant ?? ( 🙂 )
Wip, I just looked at ticket prices. $66 at the gate, $45 online. I’m not sure what comes with the ticket but $180 to $264 for a family of four is a lot of money IMO for this economy. That’s just tickets so I imagine food and drinks will add significantly to those numbers.
@wip: shopping at Lowes for Deck screws and 2×6’s for ceiling joists and rafters. picked out the best and left the rest. she is doing most of the work, i help when i can.
as far as Trump and can he do it? well, i have usually watched the professional gamblers and odds makers for advance info. here is what is current.
Hillary Clinton -220
Donald Trump +190
Bernie Sanders +1800
i think this means Hillary is favored. but that is just right now. odds tend to change over time. i think Trump is just getting warmed up. i think the odds the day before election will look a lot different.
My wife and daughter paid $27 apiece. Free parking because a friend has a season’s pass which includes parking. They took a cooler filled with sandwiches and water. I’m all in for gas and $54.
The fact that this UK academic is worried and pessimistic makes me optimistic for the first time in many years. I don’t like Trump but his enemies are enough to make him appealing.
If you support the “Red Queen of Hearts” now over Trump, you should get your head examined before you fall in love with someone like her: Elizabeth Báthory, al-Zawahiri, Hitler, Charles Manson, etc.
Phil from Oz
I just read two of the links on voter fraud. Professor McLeod is scared of a ghost. Trump willose in a landslide. Hitlery has the votes in her bag. Any feeling of optimism I had previously are dashed by facing the reality of what the HRC/DNC team will employee in November.
“Trump is accused of having a “woman problem”, but so does Clinton.”
……………………..Showing how spin is done.
Don’t Fear the Donald
All illegal aliens have come
Here, but now they’re gone
Whiteys don’t fear the Donald
Nor do the crackers on the plain
(We can be like they are)
Come on baby
(Don’t fear the Donald)
Baby take my hand
(Don’t fear the Donald)
We’ll be able to multiply
(Don’t fear the Donald)
Baby He’s your man
La, la la, la la
La, la la, la la
Invasion is done
Here but now they’re gone
Donald and Melania
Are together in the new DC
(Donald and Melania)
40, 000 men and women every day
(Like Elpidio and Julieta)
40, 000 men and women every day
(Entering Illegally)
Another 40, 000 coming every day
(We can build a wall for them)
Come on baby
(Don’t fear the Donald)
Baby take my hand
(Don’t fear the Donald)
We’ll be able to multiply
(Don’t fear the Donald)
Baby He’s your man
La, la la, la la
La, la la, la la
Pedro’s time is done
Here but soon he’s gone
Came the last night of sadness
And it was clear she couldn’t go on
Then the door was open and the wind appeared
The candles blew and Hilly disappeared
The curtains flew and then he appeared
(Saying, “We’ll be great”)
Come on baby
(Melania had no fear)
And she ran with him
(Then they started to fly)
Melania’s mom just started to cry
(She had become the FLOTUS)
She had taken his hand
(She had become the FLOTUS)
Come on baby
(Don’t fear the Donald)
El, apologize to Blue Oyster Cult right now, you heathen.
I went from JC Superstar to Blue Oyster Cult and nobody noticed.
I noticed. Making a song parody of Jesus Christ Superstar was kinda cool because that whole musical was a parody anyway, but making a parody of “Don’t Fear the Reaper” was more heathenism than I could stand for.