Have you noticed the latest sound bites coming from the punditry in the corporate mainstream media? Here is the latest wisdom flowing from the lying mouthpieces of the ruling oligarchy (Wall Street, Washington DC, Mega-corporations):
The economy is recovering and employment is growing.
Consumers are deleveraging, saving and using cash for purchases.
Retailers are doing fantastic as consumers increase spending.
These are the three themes being proclaimed simultaneously by the mainstream media. Every time I hear these themes proclaimed, I want to shout out like Joe Wilson – “YOU LIE!!!”
How can consumers be deleveraging, saving and increasing spending at the same time? Let’s examine the facts to see who is lying.
The fallacy that the economy is recovering and employment is growing can be put to rest by an examination of the BLS data accessed here: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea1.txt.
The number of Americans employed over the last few years is as follows:
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2007 – 146.0 million
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2008 – 145.5 million
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2009 – 139.9 million
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2010 – 138.9 million
It seems there are 7.1 million less employed people than there were three years ago. Contrary to the spin from the White House, there are 1 million less people employed today than during the horrific 2009 year. Luckily, another 6 million people left the work force, or we’d really have a problem. The truth is that if the government actually counted everyone in the country who wants a job, the unemployment rate is not 9.8%, but 23% and it continues to rise.
The economic recovery lie can be refuted by examining the data from the BEA located HERE and HERE.
The GDP of the US peaked at $14.5 trillion in the 3rd quarter of 2008. Today it stands at $14.8 trillion, two years later. GDP has gone up for one reason and one reason only – the Federal Government has borrowed trillions from future generations in order to artificially prop up a system already crumbling from the weight of too much debt. Highlights from the GDP calculation are:
- Private investment is $216 billion lower today than it was in the 3rd quarter of 2008.
- Exports are $80 billion lower today than they were in the 3rd quarter of 2008.
You may ask yourself how can GDP be higher if private businesses are investing less and exporting less. The answer of course is your friendly neighborhood Feds. The Federal government is spending $128 billion more today than it was in 2008. The last piece to the puzzle is the beloved consumer, who accounts for 70% of GDP. Good old Joe Sixpack has ramped up his spending by a good $470 billion since the 1st quarter of 2009. With this figure, we must be in a strong recovery. Larry Kudlow says so.
A little more digging on the BEA website reveals some interesting data:
- Personal income has risen by $300 billion since the 1st quarter of 2008.
- Strangely, private industry wages have DECLINED by $213 billion since the 1st quarter of 2008.
It seems that personal income has risen due to two major items. You will be glad to know that government wages have risen by $58 billion and drum roll please: government entitlement transfers have increased by $523 billion since the 1st quarter of 2008. The Federal government has borrowed hundreds of billions from future generations and paid it out in the form of unemployment benefits and other social programs so that consumers would spend it today. This is how you generate a positive GDP, without generating a real recovery. And, of course, if the government used an honest CPI rate, GDP would still be negative, just as it has been for most of the past decade.
The great consumer deleveraging lie has been ongoing for the last six months. The savings rate has “surged” from 4.8% in the 2nd quarter of 2008 to 5.8% today. The savings rate is calculated as what is left over when you subtract personal consumption expenditures from disposable personal income. The surge in saving is the result of the Federal government borrowing from the Chinese and handing it to consumers to spend. If the government wasn’t transferring these funds from future generations to current generations, the savings rate would be 1.2%.
Revolving consumer debt (credit cards) has declined by $173 billion in the last two years. This must mean that consumers are deleveraging. 
Total consumer credit peaked at $13.9 trillion in the 1st quarter of 2008 and currently stands at $13.4 trillion. It sure looks like consumer deleveraging. Consumers must have paid off $500 billion of debt. But, the facts obliterate this fallacy. The Wall Street banks have written off in excess of $600 billion since the 1st quarter of 2008, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. This means that consumers are actually charging more on their credit cards than they were in 2008. Having your debt written off, rather than paying it off says much about the great economic recovery of 2010.
The false reports circulating on network news programs is that Americans are paying cash, rather than using credit cards. This is completely false, as both Visa and Mastercard reported increases in transaction volumes in their last quarters. Having worked for a big box retailer, I know that the average credit card transaction is 50% to 70% higher than the average cash transaction. If people were truly charging less, the average ticket at the major retailers would be plunging. Retail sales would be plunging. They are not plunging, as the major US retailers report decent comparable store sales in the 2% to 5% range.
The National Retail Federation has forecast November- December holiday sales will rise by 2.3 percent from a year ago, the most since 2006. A Bloomberg survey taken Dec. 2 to Dec. 8 showed economists raised projections for consumer purchases, the biggest part of the economy, to 2.6 percent for next year, up from their 2.3 percent estimate the prior month.
A little reality check about retail sales is in order. According to the US Census Bureau, total retail sales over the last few years are as follows:
- 2007 – $4.5 trillion
- 2008 – $4.4 trillion
- 2009 – $4.1 trillion
- 2010 – $4.4 trillion (estimated)
The fact is that there are thousands more retail outlets today than there were in 2007, and total sales are still below the level reached in 2007. Not only that, but even using the government manipulated CPI, inflation has risen 8% since 2007. On an inflation adjusted basis, 2007 retail sales in today’s dollars would be $4.9 trillion. Using the real inflation rate of 20% over this time frame would generate an inflation adjusted retail sales figure of $5.4 trillion. As you can see, the great retail recovery of 2010 is a sham. Comparable store sales increases of 3% are inflation adjusted decreases of 5%. If you drive around with your eyes open, you would think the hot new retailer in America is called SPACE AVAILABLE.
I hate to be a wet blanket during this festive holiday season, but the truth is that there is no self sustaining recovery happening. The powers that be, with the help of their lackeys in the mainstream media are desperately trying to convince you that everything is alright. It is not alright. It is getting worse by the day. The only people spending are Lloyd Blankfein and his ilk, while middle class Americans sink further into despair and debt.
Who’s lying? You know.
RULING ELITE
Topper Hidrow Carban says:
Admin, how do you find the time to put together these posts?
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13th December 2010 at 3:41 pm
Administrator says:
This one came to me in the shower this morning. I do my best thinking in the shower.
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13th December 2010 at 3:50 pm
StuckInNJ says:
Believe your eyes … not some lying sack -o–shit media whore.
Anectdotal stuff my eyes have seen;
1) Last week we went to the German butcher in town to get the best liverwurst anywhere. My parents have been going there since 1965. We were shocked, really shocked, to see a “Closed for Business” sign. They were open last month.
2) Today Ms Freud went to the same town to get her winter boots resoled. She’s been going there since the 80′s. The shoemaker said he was going to give her a special deal for being such a long time customer. That plus the fact that he said he’s closing shop for good on Dec 23rd.
3) Then Ms. Freud went to Lord&Taylor to return the most butt ugly scarf she got for her birthday from her daughter in-law — a scum sucking corporate lawyer. It’s a large store — 3 floors — she said she saw maybe 5 – 10 shoppers in the whole store.
4) EVERY single week there’s a new friggin “Going Out Of Business” commercial on local cable TV.
Like I said, just one person’s observations. But it don’t look good.
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13th December 2010 at 4:07 pm
Milw05 says:
Great work as always JIm. Your ability to cut thru the crap is impressive. TBPis the BEST website on the entire internet. I check it at least 2 or 3 times a day and tell others. JIm what your take on the big box retailers? At what point do you see a collapse or reorganization. I have family that works for both Kohl’s and Target at the corporate level. I wonder what kind of future they have. Thanks.
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13th December 2010 at 4:12 pm
Guest Post: Who’s Lying? « Finance Blog says:
[...] Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform [...]
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13th December 2010 at 4:38 pm
Administrator says:
Milw05
It depends on their management. If they are run by realistic practical managers who see the true picture, they’ll survive. If they keep expanding into a relentless decline in retail sales, they will end up toast like Montgomery Ward, Circuit City, Fortunoff, Linens N Things, etc.
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13th December 2010 at 4:45 pm
Stop Lying About “Recovery” and Stop Demonizing the Unemployed says:
[...] Zero Hedge is the most truth I have seen in a long time. It is submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform. READ IT ALL. Here are some excerpts:Have you noticed the latest sound bites coming from the [...]
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13th December 2010 at 5:21 pm
How can consumers be deleveraging, saving and increasing spending at the same time? Let’s examine the facts to see who is lying. « InvestmentWatch says:
[...] How can consumers be deleveraging, saving and increasing spending at the same time? Let’s examine the facts to see who is lying. December 13th, 2010 Share | window.fbAsyncInit = function() { FB.init({appId: "", status: true, cookie: true, xfbml: true}); }; (function() { var e = document.createElement("script"); e.async = true; e.src = document.location.protocol + "//connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js"; document.getElementById("fb-root").appendChild(e); }()); by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform [...]
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13th December 2010 at 5:30 pm
Administrator says:
145 comments on Zero Hedge and we can’t even get to double digits on this pathetic site. I’m disgusted with you all.
There is a guy named Harry Wanger on ZH that is optimistic about everything all the time. The people on ZH destroy him. Here is a sample:
by Hook Line and S…
on Mon, 12/13/2010 – 16:56
#802775
This Wanger fellow is quite the useful tool. If you want to identify him in real life, look for the following…
· He stutters – is self-conscious and his family hates him
· Has a fake tan
· Has washboard ‘six pack’ abs
· Has an AA degree, but has gone to six years of college
· Takes pictures of himself in front of mirrors
· Constantly is smelled by dogs in the crotch
· Eats at McDonald’s, has rotten teeth, halitosis
· Immediately looks away from you when you make eye contact
· Can’t urinate with other people at an adjacent urinal
· Has a lazy eye
· Perhaps has a gold tooth
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13th December 2010 at 5:34 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
Harry Wanger is a paid troll.
RE
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13th December 2010 at 5:38 pm
Punk in Drublic says:
RE
I can get paid for this shit? Sweet, where do I sign up?
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13th December 2010 at 5:41 pm
Administrator says:
DP showed up on Zero Hedge with this brilliant post. The ignorant moron thinks Wharton is a state school. Thank God Canada got him.
by DavidPierre
on Mon, 12/13/2010 – 16:32
#802538
SmokeyQuinn again displaying his bestest yet
‘ignore-essence’!
A man who sucks at the .gov teat all day at the Wharton School of ‘Busyness’, why actually blogging away on his website @ http://www.theSheepShitPaddock.com .
“It seems that personal income has risen due to two major items. You will be glad to know that government wages have risen by $58 billion…”
The only people spending are the hyprocrites like SmokeyQuinn … who took his entire family on a week long cruise to the Caribbean recently, while middle class Americans, (who are not working for the state), sink further into despair and debt.
Who’s lying?* You know! Don’t you… SmokeyQuinn!
{*about The9/11}
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13th December 2010 at 5:42 pm
Administrator says:
Punk
First you click the Amazon button. It will look like you are paying them, but don’t believe it. Just charge $1,000 and you will receive $1,500 in your bank account.
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13th December 2010 at 5:52 pm
Punk in Drublic says:
The unemployment level, even by the official standards, never dropped below that of 2000…. All the stupidity and fraud of the housing bubble, its ginormous fake wealth creation and subsequent bailouts and stimulus nonsense couldn’t even get our national workforce back on track. Fucking ridiculous.
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13th December 2010 at 6:03 pm
llpoh says:
I read yesterday that the only jobs still expanding are government – fed/state/local. And state and local are starting to crumble. I would expect an avalanche of job losses as the governments begin to shed workers, as this will surely flow into the private sector.
There is much bleating in the press re companies hoarding cash, on a percentage to equity basis not seen since 1959. They (the MSM and politicians) are crying about how the unemployment problems would be addressed if only the filthy dirty companies would only spend their accumulated cash reserves. The companies, smartly, are giving that idea the big middle finger. They will need the cash to survive. So given that their pleas to the public to spend, spend spend have largely fallen on deaf ears, they have now turned to business to spend spend spend – with the same result.
Companies are reading the tea leaves, and do not like what they are seeing. They do not see returns on investment significant enough to make them turn lose of their cash, especially in a crumbling economy. They are making nice profits with the number of employees they have (record profits, actually), and see no point in jeopardizing that situation simply because the politicians and news organizations are crying.
Batten down, folks. It is going to get bumpy.
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13th December 2010 at 6:27 pm
Guest Post: Who’s Lying? | Stocks! says:
[...] Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform [...]
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13th December 2010 at 7:23 pm
Dave says:
Jim says:
“This one came to me in the shower this morning. I do my best thinking in the shower.”
That sounds like you’re spending too much time with the soap!
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13th December 2010 at 7:45 pm
Kill Bill says:
“This one came to me in the shower this morning. I do my best thinking in the shower.”
Im sure a nudist camp might produce the same result and is not dependent on hot showers
Jes sayin
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13th December 2010 at 8:44 pm
Major Flunky says:
Hang in there Jimbo, ZH has been out just a little longer… Gonna drop by and boost your comment section for no other reason than to just say thanks. Leave the Gojo in the garage.
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13th December 2010 at 9:08 pm
Administrator says:
LLPOH
The corporate cash stroyline is a sham too. Corporate debt levels are at an all-time high and rising.
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13th December 2010 at 9:41 pm
llpoh says:
Admin – the cash was reported as a percentage of “total equity”. It wasn’t reported as related to debt or anything else. I understand it is a flaw in the reporting system but have been too lazy to dig it all out. Debt itself isn’t a complete measure either, as if debt goes up, it may or may not have an impact on total equity. If profits are up, and not being re-invested, it is quite possible that even tho debt is up, so is total equity. Just guessing.
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13th December 2010 at 9:52 pm
Administrator says:
Smokey
Thanks for taking on that mongoloid DP on Zero Hedge. He is such a pathetic worthless parasite.
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13th December 2010 at 10:01 pm
llpoh says:
Admin – just looking at ZH. Interesting that DP has the same rep over there as he has here. What a clueless turd.
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13th December 2010 at 10:05 pm
Smokey says:
DP eats shit. If he continues attacking every Quinn post over on ZH, it would not surprise me if they toss his ass off there too.
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13th December 2010 at 10:20 pm
Yojimbo says:
Admin et al
Boston seems to be a tremendous anomaly in the country, and since I wholeheartedly agree with the analysis on this site, I have a hard time comprehending the local economy here.
I think it is because we have such a strong combination of well-endowed non-profit Hospitals, well-endowed Colleges and Universities proped up by the student loan racket, the Banks and Financiers on State Street who are rolling in dough, and High Tech and BioTech Companies galore.
We had little to no manufacturing to lose. The higher education treadmill has yet to fall apart. The housing market here, since it was so tight due to the age of the city and few buildable lots, has remained remarkably strong. Our condo has dropped from $400K at the height to $385K (we just had it appraised last week).
Because so many people are not willing to take up home ownership right now, the rental market for apartments is incredibly tight and rents are going up, if you can believe it.
I have heard stories about people in financial difficulty, but I personally don’t know anyone out of a job who wants one.
I recite the statistics to people and the economic consequences of the moves of the Fed and I tell them we are in a Depression, and people look at me like I have two heads. For some reason, Boston is living in an oasis of stability – it is like living in a different world when I see photos and news reports about the middle of the country.
But, of course, I have as a frame of reference a demographic that does not include the FSA, of whom we have great teeming masses in the city. Teeming masses who have electronic debit cards from the state for food stamps, and who drive cars much nicer than mine – BMW, Lexus, Lincoln Navigators, Mercedes, Toyotas…
.Again, the contradictions inherent in having people that make far less money than I do driving cars that are far nicer than I would ever waste money on makes my head spin…
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13th December 2010 at 10:43 pm
Opinionated Bloviator says:
” A lie, repeated often enough, becomes truth by virtue of repetition”. J Goebbels
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13th December 2010 at 12:23 am
David says:
“This one came to me in the shower this morning. I do my best thinking in the shower.”
=====================================================================
I know,
You dropped the soap and that quickly cross referenced in your mind what happens in prison when you do that and simultaneously what the government is doing to folks via the statistics at the same time
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13th December 2010 at 1:29 am
Expat says:
I can think of a few simple ways to boost traffic and comments on this site.
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13th December 2010 at 3:18 am
WHO’S LYING? « Vince's Economic Blog says:
[...] [...]
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13th December 2010 at 8:01 am
Novista says:
One industry has improved:
“The mining sector peaked right before the market crash in September 2008 with 726,600 workers in the industry. But now the sector is almost back to that point. In November, mining employment totaled 716,600 workers, only 10,000 jobs away from the previous high. If employment keeps growing at the current rate, the sector will surpass its previous peak by January.”
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13th December 2010 at 8:26 am
Yojimbo says:
Admin
Congratulations! You finally made the big time. Your essay has been posted at WhatReallyHappened.com.
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13th December 2010 at 9:48 am
Peter H says:
$ for bankers bankrupting the rest of us, yet another violation of our rights. Add it to the list of gov’t violations of our right:
They violate the 1st Amendment by placing protesters in cages, banning books like “America Deceived II” and censoring the internet.
They violate the 2nd Amendment by confiscating guns.
They violate the 4th and 5th Amendment by molesting airline passengers.
They violate the entire Constitution by starting undeclared wars for foreign countries.
Impeach Obama and sweep out the Congress, except Ron Paul.
(Last link of Banned Book):
http://www.iuniverse.com/Bookstore/BookDetail.aspx?BookId=SKU-000190526
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13th December 2010 at 10:35 am
jmarz says:
Yojimbo,
Just out of curiousity, are you retired? If retired, what did you do before you retired in Boston?
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13th December 2010 at 10:36 am
Stan says:
Wonderful …. The ammo I need to refute arguments of my friends who are drinking the kool-aid.
The other missing metric begging explanation, “Corporation Balance sheets are loaded with cash,” with no where to spend it. Huh
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13th December 2010 at 10:54 am
Bruce C. says:
This subject is very complicated. For one thing, what is called “lying” can be poor thinking, partial information, over zealous extrapolations, etc. I do believe, however, that the financial industry does want more people to invest more in the stock market.
I talk to “regular” people all the time to get their impressions to form my own assessment of “consumer sentiment” and “the facts on the ground”, and I mostly get mixed answers. Truth is, every person has a unique situation that they’re dealing with, and yet there are a few broad themes. First and foremost is that every one’s income is down., even including the lawyers who have tons of work helping the banks foreclose and processing lawsuits generated by intrusive government policies. Secondly, most people want to spend money to feel better or to act affirmatively. Most people are resigned to an economic slow down, and yet most think they are little affected. So called un-employment is more like under-employment for most. A lot can’t get full-time jobs. Small business owners are running at about 50% capacity. Etc.
However, very few whom I’ve met say things are getting worse. People use credit cards, not cash, for the benefits. But there is also a palpable limbo. Restaurants are full. Every one’s net worth is down. There are relatively few real estate transactions. I personally don’t know anyone who is unemployed who wants to work. I know of several people who have cash businesses and get food stamps. Cosmetic surgeries are down. Everyone I know is getting a Christmas bonus. This is the weirdest “recession” I’ve ever seen.
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13th December 2010 at 11:17 am
jmarz says:
Bruce,
Thanks for some insight. I agree with you completely. I know we have real double digit unemployment, high consumer prices, and a contracting economy but I personally don’t feel any pinch on my standard of living nor do the people I hang out with and associate with. I also keep hearing information from business representatives I deal with in my job that their companies are having record months and are forecasting decent growth for 2011. I realize this data could be flawed since these record sales figures could possibly be a replenishment from low inventory levels in 2009 or even 2008. I worry that when SHTF things will not detiorate slowly but come tumbling down like a hard rain and many will be completely off guard. The economic environment is so uncertain and freakishly deceiving that it sincerely scares me. The cards are stacked against us and Washington continues to gamble at the casino with money borrowed from our Asian creditors. I feel like the storm is rumbling but yet we won’t turn around and come back to shore but rather continue into the eye of the storm. The writing is on the wall but we are too blind to see it. Our country would rather paint murals on walls to inspire hope and change instead of bringing the murals of hope and inspiration to life.
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13th December 2010 at 11:48 am
Yojimbo says:
jmarz
I’m not sure why you think I am retired…. Perhaps my views seem antiquated…
I am 44 and a restaurant consultant. I have worked in every position in restaurants, every position on the line, and owned restaurants. Restaurants tend to hemorrhage money because most owners and chefs have either sentimental or culinary reasons for opening restaurants and know nothing about finances. I stop the hemorrhaging.
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13th December 2010 at 12:27 pm
jmarz says:
Yojimbo
Just a guess…there are alot of old farts here and I was just playing my odds. Your professional career is rather fascinating. It seems like you have found a niche market. Is the restaurant consulting business competitive?
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13th December 2010 at 12:57 pm
Yojimbo says:
jmarz
I don’t know. I’ve never had to compete. It’s all word of mouth.
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13th December 2010 at 1:48 pm
random cool-zip says:
yep, yep and yep. perceptive and insightful. this is exactly what I’m seeing here in Cleveland.
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13th December 2010 at 2:39 pm
Circa53 says:
If you check out…..USDebtClock.org…..They say there are over 20 million people unemployed….Unemployment in Deeeeeeetroit is hovering between 30 and 50%……..
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13th December 2010 at 3:09 pm
frank h says:
excellent!
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13th December 2010 at 3:44 pm
mmike says:
went cross town to look at a condo selling for a sixth of its last 2006 selling price, needed carpet, and had to be cash, which was less than a quality used car with medium use, , not realy a good neighborhood, younger mostly, warm in winter, associative and thus the problem,, a cheap wreck, but a living condition that may preserve capital..now if only a reason to be here, to be there!
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13th December 2010 at 10:43 pm
Good Stuff says:
good comments here! first, I need to fill all of you guys in on a simple fact of life:
a.) capitalism is dying.
b.) nobody seems to have an alternative monetary / socially integrated replacement for the ponzi schemes world we are watching fall apart at the seams.
c.) in 5 short years, most if not ALL of your jobs you still have will be ‘gone’ or severly diminished.
d.) if you’ve never lived on the economy of a third world country in your life, now is a good time to read about how that is done.
e.) forget the schlock market, it’s a slot machine that’s rigged and YOU aren’t the winner. House is.
f.) globally, we’re looking at the total and complete meltdown of virtually all but a handful of nation’s economies, China not being amongst those, nor Russia.
g.) there will come a day when your U.S. passport WON’T get you into a foreign country without a lot of cash in your bags.
h.) the depression of 1929, in comparison to what is about to unfold, will look like a trip to Disney.
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13th December 2010 at 3:37 am
keep it simple says:
JMARZ comment, “The writing is on the wall but we are too blind to see it. Our country would rather paint murals on walls to inspire hope and change instead of bringing the murals of hope and inspiration to life.”
Good point! From my observation, the countries with the biggest patriotic “hope and change” murals are also the most repressive. Give the hope and feeling of food but not let them eat.
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13th December 2010 at 2:53 pm
Guest Post: Who’s Lying? | Jackpot Investor says:
[...] Lying? December 13th, 2010 • Filed Under •Filed Under: Blogs Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning PlatformWho’s Lying?Have you noticed the latest sound bites coming from the punditry in the corporate [...]
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13th December 2010 at 6:19 pm