DOES 2 + 2 = 22?

CoreLogic reported this morning that home prices fell 1.8% in the last month and have now declined for 6 straight months. This means that home prices are falling at an annualized rate of 21%. The post bubble low will be breached next month. Yesterday the MSM was excited by the fact that mortgage delinquencies declined again. The rate had peaked in January 2010 and has been steadily declining.

Now this is the part that requires some thinking. So anyone reading this post that works for CNBC, Seeking Alpha, or any other MSM outlet can go back to your mindless propaganda mode and exit stage left. The hundreds of billions in tax dollars thrown at housing in 2009 and early 2010 for home buyer tax credits and mortgage modification programs temporarily stopped prices from falling. Shockingly, when prices stopped falling, mortage delinquencies started to decline. OK. Got that?

The government’s efforts to prop up the housing market have failed miserably. The hundreds of billions were pissed down the toilet. The prop has been removed and home prices will fall to the level they were always going to fall to. Supply and demand determine price. Prices are now in freefall again. Guess what? In the next few months, mortgage delinquency rates will begin to rise again. Even Larry Kudlow could see this if he knew how to add 2 + 2.

As an added benefit, we are about to enter the huge reset stage for Alt-A fraudulent mortgages. These resets are occurring just as mortgage rates are hitting the highest levels in a year. This will give an added kicker to the foreclosure tsunami on the way.

So, you can listen to your favorite real estate broker who tells you it is the best time to buy, or you can add 2 + 2 and get 4.

According to LPS, 8.83% of mortgages are delinquent (down from 9.02% in November), and another 4.15% are in the foreclosure process (up from 4.08% in November) for a total of 12.98%. It breaks down as:

• 2.56 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 2.12 million loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2.2 million loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of 6.87 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure.

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
113 Comments
StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 12:36 pm

GREAT article, Jim. Let me digress a bit and talk about sales people.

It is ALWAYS a great time to buy a house or car or anything …. no matter what the circumstances are!

Do you expect a sales person, or the organization that represents them, to say; “Hey, don’t buy a house for the next 18 months!”? Sure, I’d like that kind of honesty but I sure as hell don’t expect it. If salespeople don’t sell, they don’t eat. So why do we get surprised or angry when they shout, “BUY NOW!!”. This is their job.

Mortgage rate were in the 18% range in the early 1980’s … when I bought my first house … and of course my realtor told me what a great decision I made to BUY NOW!! lol

Here’s the best advice I can give to a young person (you old farts already know everything). First, a salesperson ultimately only cares about his own wallet, not yours. Therefore, never ever believe what a salesperson tells you when it comes to the financials. Ever! You yourself must verify and run your own numbers. Doing this will save you a lot of heartache down the road.

Kill Bill
Kill Bill
February 8, 2011 12:36 pm

Rentier Nation here we come.

Thinker
Thinker
February 8, 2011 12:43 pm

AP analysis: Foreclosures raise US economic stress

The nation’s economic stress inched up in December because higher foreclosures outweighed lower unemployment, according to The Associated Press’ monthly analysis.

Bankruptcy levels remained largely unchanged from November. But the depressed housing market took a toll. Foreclosure rates rose in 33 states, most sharply in Utah, New Jersey, Nevada and Arizona.

Smokey
Smokey
February 8, 2011 1:19 pm

Stuck,

You display a shocking misunderstanding of the sales profession. I was extremely successful in sales for many years and it was because I cared deeply about the interests of my customers. Most extremely successful sales people take a personal interest in their clients / customers. It is why they are extremely successful.

I will concede that an industry rife with fraud, such as the mortgage industry or time share sales, generally does not give a shit about their customers / clients.

Just because you were a fucking scum-sucking, back-stabbing, lying, corrupt, worthless piece of shit out to enrich himself by fucking over fine citizens through the sale of toxic mortgages to waterfront real estate on the fucking Love Canal doesn’t mean all salespeople are douchebags.

Matt
Matt
February 8, 2011 1:21 pm

Simple math: delinquencies down equals forclosures up. Same as the bullshit job numbers, as the people who run out of bennies, are under-employed or just stop looking for work reduce the number of UE participants, it dosen’t mean they are now working.

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 1:34 pm

TWELVE MORE ABSOLUTE PROOFS THAT THIS IS
ABSOLUTELY THE BEST TIME EVER!!! TO BUY A HOME
=============================================

1) … 11% of all homes in the US are vacant.
———- http://www.cnbc.com/id/41355854

2) … rate of home ownership has fallen to 1988 levels
———- http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/q4-2010-homeownership-rate-falls-to.html

3) … for the first time ever an astonishing 1,000,000 homes repossessed in 2010
———- http://news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20110113/us_ac/7605134_1_million_foreclosures_in_2010_and_counting

4) … 3,000,000 homes repossessed between 1/2007 and 8/2010
5) … 48% of mortgages could have negative equity by 2012

———- http://www.usnews.com/opinion/mzuckerman/articles/2011/01/27/housing-crisis-represents-the-greatest-threat-to-the-recovery?PageNr=2

6) … 72% of major metropolitan areas had more foreclosures in 2010 than they did in 2009. (Link has awesome satellite pics)
———- http://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-tour-foreclosure-cities-2011-1?slop=1#slideshow-start

7) … 8,000,000 Americans are at least 1 month behind on their payments
8) … 5,000,000 Americans are 2+ months behind
———- http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110113/ap_on_bi_ge/us_foreclosure_rates%3B_ylt%3DAvdzUl3klS53mPpRmh1prgys0NUE%3B_ylu%3DX3oDMTFoM2xiOG4yBHBvcwMyOARzZWMDYWNjb3JkaW9uX3RvcF9zdG9yaWVzBHNsawNiYW5rc3JlcG9zc2U-

9) … formerly great industrial cities are rapidly turning into ghost towns.
———- http://247wallst.com/2010/12/27/american-cities-that-are-running-out-of-people/2/

10) … U.S. home prices fell 25.9% in the Great Depression … 26% in this current non-recession
———- http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/house-prices-up-or-down-in-2011

11) … Employment sucks!! No one left to buy homes. Only 47% of working age Americans have full time jobs.
———- http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/01/january-23-2011-only-47-of-working-age.html

12) … Getting a mortgage will soon become increasingly difficult
———- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-31/higher-costs-lower-home-ownership-rates-expected-after-housing-overhaul.html

Smokey
Smokey
February 8, 2011 2:27 pm

Stuck,

Quite the contrary—-some of my best customers were black as tar. Black as the ace of spades. Black as soot. Black as midnight.

I have MANY black friends. My opinion is that Nelson Mandela is a great person. Likewise Thomas Sowell and Colin Powell.

I’m not a fan of MLK, Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton and Jeremiah Wright for reasons I have already enunciated. And I despise the victim mentality of many blacks.

I am a fucking selling machine. I could sell refrigerators to Eskimos. People LOVED to buy from me. Because they knew that I knew my shit. Cold. I solved their problems. I know HOW to sell. My livelihood was built on REPEAT sales.

You’re not like me, Stuck. I seriously doubt that you could give pussy away in prison, much less sell it. You fuck widows and orphans out of their money and call that sales. You might as well have used a goddamn gun.

Regarding you idiotic car salesman example—I wouldn’t waste time with people who weren’t going to buy. I developed working relationships with people the needed the products I supplied. If someone jerked me around for an hour, as per your example, and then didn’t buy, I moved on.

Generally speaking, sales can be the highest-paying hardest job to do, or the lowest-paying easiest job to do.

Matt
Matt
February 8, 2011 2:37 pm

I happen to be in the capital equipment sales profession. The fun thing is one good sales call can make your whole month. The bummer is that one bad sales call can fuck your whole month.

Smokey
Smokey
February 8, 2011 3:20 pm

I would prefer to limit it to saying that I was in industrial distribution of supplies and equipment for government and non government accounts. The majority of my sales were generated through multi-year contracts I set up with government and corporate buyers, although probably 30% of my sales were from competitive bidding in the open market.

Matt
Matt
February 8, 2011 3:37 pm

Smokey,
My guess would have been greeting cards for minorities or subscriptions for O magazine.

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 3:56 pm

Smokey said, …. “I wouldn’t waste time with people who weren’t going to buy.”

You mean … you mean …. you mean you didn’t care about those people? Shocking! Thank you for making my point that “caring” ends when there is no sale.

I have nothing against the sales profession. Prior to mortgages I worked at both HP and IBM. I wasn’t required to sell pussy so I can’t address your concern. Nevertheless I did OK considering I spent 19 years between both companies.

I seriously think you need either reading glasses or a refresher course in reading comprehension.

I never said salespeople were always dishonest. My post regarding trusting salepeople was geared SPECIFICALLY AND ONLY to the financials. Here it is again. Read s-l-o-w-l-y and try to comprehend;

“Therefore, never ever believe what a salesperson tells you when it comes to the financials.”

EVERY salesperson BETTER be good at justifying cost via an ROI or whatever practice your industry uses. (We’re talking big ticket items here … not retail sales or nickel and dime stuff.)

Price is almost always the 1st or 2nd objection. You BETTER be able to show the client how they can afford it or the sales career will be a short one. And isn’t it a strange coincidence that the salesperson will ALWAYS show the client can afford it? lmao Like I said, wallet first, caring second.

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 4:22 pm

Well, he certainly did a good job getting under my skin today.

I hope he’s not mad that I said he’s full of shit. But when he said that I am a — “fucking scum-sucking, back-stabbing, lying, corrupt, worthless piece of shit” — well, I hope you agree that I was justified in my severe and creative verbal lashing.

He says he sold industrial supplies to government accounts.

Translation: A bottle of Tidy Bowl Urinal Cleanser …… cost; $175.00 each …. there’s your fucking caring. lol

Smokey
Smokey
February 8, 2011 4:40 pm

Stuck,

Now that I’ve THOROUGHLY thrashed your ass, you are revising history. People can read your original comment and decide for themselves whether your condemnation of salespeople was restricted to financials. You certainly did NOT specify that.

You opened with “Great article Jim. Let me digress a bit and talk about salespeople.
It is ALWAYS a great time to buy a house or car or anything….. no matter what the circumstances are!”

“OR ANYTHING “—-Right. Sure sounds like financial sales only to me.

“Never ever believe what a salesman tells you when it comes to financials ” ?????

WTF are you talking about? Sales is ABOUT price. You will goddamn well tell the truth about financials if your business is predicated on repeat sales.

WTF do you mean a salesman will ALWAYS show the client can afford it ? Do you know NOTHING about sales? One of the largest parts of sales is qualifying a customer to see if he or she needs or can afford your product.

GFD, do you know ANYTHING about sales ?

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 5:01 pm

OK — I am The Judge here for all disputes. However, it would be unethical for me to Judge an argument I am involved in.

Therefore, I call on my good friends here to participate. Here is what you do.

1. Read my post. The first one.

2. Vote Thumbs Up — if you think I limited my critique of salespeople to financials.

3. Vote Thums Down — in you think I am slandering the noble sales profession.
.
.
Oh, one other thing. Remember that I love ALL of you .. while Smokey is most likely to say you eat shit.

Vote Now.
Thank You.

Smokey
Smokey
February 8, 2011 5:11 pm

Like the fucking deck isn’t loaded on that. You starting with five thumbs up.

Remember, all of you shit-eaters, to thumbs down that first post of Stuck’s.

llpoh
llpoh
February 8, 2011 5:20 pm

Smokey said: “I wouldn’t waste time with people who weren’t going to buy.” Absofuckinglutely!

For fuck sake, people that do not buy ARE NOT CUSTOMERS.

In my current business, one of the 1st things I did was tell over 90% of my “customers” to fuck off. These 90% represented a very small fraction of my sales, they absorbed almost 100% of my admin time, they were deemed unlikely to ever grow their business with us, they were demanding (their whole businesses relied on getting their one fucking part from us), and often called chasing their orders several times a day (never mind the fact that they refused to give required lead-times and wanted us to break into production to make their one part worth the magnificent sum of $100), and, of course, they refused to pay on time.

To further show what a heartless bastard I am, many of them came back on bended knee offering to triple/quadruple their price (oh joy, I get the same problems as before, but now I get $300 for the part. Sounds great – except when you realize that I had a $10mm business and they represented approx. $50k per year. Even at triple the price, they represented about 1% of my business, none of my profit, but represented 90+% of my problems. My partner had a soft spot for them, as without out us, many of these folks had no business at all. The fact is they were leeches. Tough shit – I canceled them anyway. The fact is they were leeches. They went broke. The reality was that they really didn’t have viable businesses and were surviving on me subsidizing them. Not my problem. By getting rid of these “customers” I was able to free resources that allowed me to grow my business dramatically. I am not well liked by these people, who now have to work jobs instead of leech off me. Some of them damned me to hell, not unlike RE.

So, to make a long story shorter, people who do not buy are not customers. Customers that do not generate appropriate profit need to become ex-customers.

Salesmen need to identify customer needs and see if they can be met. They also must ensure that the “customers” really are customers, and not drains on the business.

llpoh
llpoh
February 8, 2011 5:22 pm

Stuck – ha! I gave you a thumbs down above and the magic thumb god gave you 6 at once. Bwahahahaha!

llpoh
llpoh
February 8, 2011 5:25 pm

Stuck – you said above “Let me digress a bit and talk about sales people.” And now you are trying to crawfish and say you were not talking about salespeople in general.

Maybe you meant to be specific re financial salespeople. But you wrote “sales people”. And I, like Smokey, was chomping at the bit to get stuck (no pun intended) into you.

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 5:37 pm

Great points, llpoh.

Glad to see that nowhere in your post did you talk about “caring”.

Of course, you do care. You care first about profits. That’s why you gor rid of 90% of your dead weight actual CUSTOMERS. Profit first, caring somewhere else down the line. And there isn’t a damn thing wrong with that.

I am just fucking sick and tired of salespeople and their companies caring about me. Like all those bank commercials falling over their feet telling me how important I am, how much they value customer service, how much they care about my needs, etc. etc.

Oh yeah? Well fuck you and the horse you rode in on. I don’t need you to care for me or worse, establish a “relationship” with me. Fuck off. I have my parents, sister, kids, Ms. Freud and various others for that.

What I want from a salesperson is real simple. Be honest , be knowledgeable, and do what you say you’re gonna do. We’re conducting a business transaction … nothing else. I will act in my own best interest and I know YOU, the salesman, will do likewise. So don’t bullshit me with your caring relationship gobbledegook.

Punk in Drublic
Punk in Drublic
February 8, 2011 5:41 pm

Sorry Stucky, kinda sounds like you were hating on “sales people”.

Opinionated Bloviator
Opinionated Bloviator
February 8, 2011 5:44 pm

Looking at the bigger picture of economic data via shadowstats, housing will continue to grind down regardless of the mortgage resets.
Why?, Look at whats been happening to the income of 90% of Americans, it’s been grinding down towards Mexico not Up. How far can it fall? Well, what is the price of real estate in Mexico and Argentina? You cannot afford first world real estate prices on a third world income.

llpoh
llpoh
February 8, 2011 5:45 pm

Stuck – I agree. I try to “take care” of my customers, but if they aren’t helping me turn a profit, I have to move along. I do not “care’ for them like they are my family. It is a business. I try to provide something of value, and I hope to get something of value in return. If I am good at my job, I can make a profit. I also do not ever try to sell someone something that they do not need, or that I know will not do a good job for them. That is unethical, at least in my book. I do try very hard to discover what they in fact need, and then develop a product to fill their needs.

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 5:49 pm

Jesus H Christ, did you all take a Retard Pill this morning??

1. I AM talking about salepeople in general … but NOT all salespeople.

2. I AM talking only about BIG TICKET sales items … like a house, car, expesive furniture or electronics .. and not your 7-11 clerk, shoe salesman, etc

3. I am NOT talking about financial sales.

4. I AM talking about the financials involved with big ticket items.

Joe Blow buys a home and needs a mortgage. If you do not believe that Joe Blow should analyze his own financial status, the pros and cons, HIMSELF … and by virtue of that COMPLETELY IGNORE whatever the fuck the salesman says … then you are all just completely fucking full of shit.

Smokey
Smokey
February 8, 2011 6:00 pm

Yeah, Stuck, you were one BAD motherfucker earlier in the thread when you and the Administrator were tag teaming my ass. Now my allies have arrived and the worm has turned.

They are spanking your ass for your reversal on your earlier BLANKET condemnation of sales people. Deservedly so. You should be ashamed of even attempting that switch.

Of course, the Administrator is off licking his wounds like a cur, while hiding in shame since I just made shit of that empty article he posted on the nonexistent China bubble.

Want some ? Get some. Bring it.

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 6:00 pm

@ Punk

Well if even you, my best bud, says so … then obviously, it is I who have failed to communicate.

I do not hate all sales people.

I HATE …

.. stupid sales people (in retail that’s about 90%)

.. lazy sales people (same stats as above)

.. those who over-promise and under-deliver

.. bullshitters — this is a huge group

.. and ESPECIALLY those who play their stupid Sales Tricks (i.e.; should we deliver that on Thursday or Friday … when I haven’t even decided to buy yet …. so, fuck off!! … and dozens of other closing “tricks” … I know them all.)

I do, however, love any and all door-to-door Porn Salesmen … tricks included.
.
.
.
.
Other: I am getting sick and tired of the “Slow down You are posting too often” warning message … fuck off, WordPress!

llpoh
llpoh
February 8, 2011 6:01 pm

Stuck – we are the retards? You wrote the fucking shit. Isn’t what you meant? Fine. But it says what it says. I pasted the direct quote above. Not our fault that you wrote like RE.

Smokey
Smokey
February 8, 2011 6:03 pm

Stuck’s squirming like a butterfly on a pin now. Backtracking his ass off.

Punk in Drublic
Punk in Drublic
February 8, 2011 6:05 pm

Stuck
I am with you, when Mrs Punk applied for a mortgage her bank OK’d a three hundred fucking thousand dollar loan. WAY out of our comfort zone, financially speaking. We knew what we could afford and could not, yet the bank was more than happy to bury us in debt far beyond what we could have reasonably paid.

Our real estate agent listened to our wants and needs and showed us houses that were…. Practical. He was a good guy and we ended up buying one of the places in which he was the selling agent as well. He could have played the buyers against us to get a higher price and bigger commission but didn’t.

My experience, the mortgage “sales person” was a bastard, the home “sales person” wasn’t.

llpoh
llpoh
February 8, 2011 6:06 pm

Smokey – the China bubble article is full of shit. No one asked me my opinion. Also, the crap about China buying 200 tons of gold is equally stinky. That would be like me throwing a quarter into a jar in the house – you never know when you might need a quarter, but it sure as hell doesn’t signify I am now aiming to corner the market on quarters or convert all my assets into them. Puh-lease.

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 6:10 pm

@Smokey

It is inconceivable that I am down 2-7.

Thanks to llpoh … as TRUE & HONEST a salesman as ever existed … for pointing out that the WordPress Gods have aligned against me.

I therefore have no choice but to declare the current voting a fraud.

Furthermore, citing the article I wrote a while back on Fair & Accurate Judging … Section 7, Paragraph 3, Sub-Paragraph 2.1, line 13 …. I am authorized to declare myself (StuckInNJ) as THE WINNER of this debate.

Sorry, Smokey.
Eat Shit.

llpoh
llpoh
February 8, 2011 6:12 pm

Punk – you said “He could have played the buyers against us to get a higher price and bigger commission but didn’t.”

Then your agent is an unethical piece of shit and deserves to be disbarred or whatever the equivalent is. It is his FUCKING JOB to get as mush as he can for the seller. If he didn’t do that, he has breached his fiduciary duties, and is possibly subject to civil penalty. What a cocksucker. The sellers could, rightfully, sue his ass off.

Would you want him selling YOUR house knowing that he wouldn’t get the best price for it? Would you? Would you REALLY use him to sell your home now that you know he is an unethical turd and would sell your home for less than the market value?

Wow. That is incredible.

Stuck is right – house salesmen can be real pieces of shit.

Punk in Drublic
Punk in Drublic
February 8, 2011 6:14 pm

StuckNinja wins, as the first to claim victory.

BTW, that has got to be the silliest rule for victory I have ever heard, but….

The Dude abides.

Matt
Matt
February 8, 2011 6:14 pm

I care about my customer and his needs because I care about getting to use him as a refferal and having an opportunity of doing business in the future. I guess that makes me a selfish sales prick. There is a big difference between a customer, a prospect and a burden. A good salesman can determine who is who quickly, and guys like LLPOH make quick work of the burdens.

llpoh
llpoh
February 8, 2011 6:16 pm

Stuck – thumb gods only enter into play to correct manifestly incorrect prior voting. You have now challenged them, and will continue to suffer at their hands having now attempted to over-ride their divine intervention.

That agent Punk mentioned still has me reeling. That Punk thought he was “a good guy” is stunning.

Smokey
Smokey
February 8, 2011 6:16 pm

llpoh,

Some of the China bubble articles posted on this forum are worthy of debate. Especially if Quinn writes them.

This particular China article was a piece of shit from the jump. The guy says nothing that you couldn’t get from any network news evening report. He took eighteen paragraphs to say that China is probably in a bubble but he doesn’t know when it pops.

Smokey
Smokey
February 8, 2011 6:17 pm

Punk, llpoh, SSS,

I think we may have heard the last of RE.

One can only hope

llpoh
llpoh
February 8, 2011 6:19 pm

Matt – that is a good sales recipe. If you accept someone as a customer, you owe them a duty of care for so long as they are your customer. And by providing them with good service, good things flow back – referrals, future work, etc.

I have seen companies die as they were unable to let go of bad customers.

Punk in Drublic
Punk in Drublic
February 8, 2011 6:25 pm

LLPOH
I guess its a matter of perspective. He got them price they asked and got us the price we offered. It is about selling the house, after all. People who try to get too much for their house watch it sit on the market dropping in price. I can literally look down the street and see the consequences of asking for to much money, vacant houses.

Had he tried to dick us around the sellers might have gotten even less.

llpoh
llpoh
February 8, 2011 6:30 pm

Punk – you said he could have gotten more. If it was an uncertain thing, that is different. It is his job to sell the house at the best possible price. As has Stuck, I have seen real estate agents do some filthy, underhanded shit.

I am glad it worked out for you. That you declared Stuck the winner given the thumb gods ruled against him is surely tempting fate.

Punk in Drublic
Punk in Drublic
February 8, 2011 6:30 pm

Smokey
I, for one, hope that RE did not leave us. I am not as diametrically opposed to RE as you or LLPOH. I like where RE’s mind goes, just not where it starts from.

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 6:31 pm

llpoh

It’s not just house salesmen.

The more expensive the product … the more bullshit flows. Again, I am ONLY talking about the financials.

I don’t know if you use Manufacting Software (aka, Enterprise Resource Planning or ERP) to run your business. I used to sell the high end stuff (Oracle and Peoplesoft) to Fortune 1000 companies. We’re talking projects that would cost $1M+ … for software and services!

You have to shovel a lot of shit to justify that expense. So, being part of the “pre-sales” group, we would go in with our team of experts to analyze the business, top to bottom. The goal, of course, was to find any and every possible inefficiency that COULD result in cost savings if cured.

Sometimes it took just weeks. Other times, months. We’d take our findings back to the office and then grind out very fancy and very professional looking Excel reports and Powerpoints out the ass. We’d show every conceivable savings; inventory reduction, labor savings of every kind, engineering reductions, etc. etc. and then at the end presented the all important 3 R’s using the popular (at the time) “Dupont Model” — ROI, ROE, and ROA.

What a fucking production!! Not all, but a lot of it was bullshit. We knew it, the client knew it … but we all played the game.

llpoh
llpoh
February 8, 2011 6:32 pm

Smokey – one can only hope. Those of us with article rights need to help the Admin out with some articles.

Punk in Drublic
Punk in Drublic
February 8, 2011 6:33 pm

LLPOH
I assume he could have advised the sellers to turn down our offer and then advised us to offer 5 or 10 extra thousand. We most likely would have kept looking, but he could have tried.

Smokey
Smokey
February 8, 2011 6:33 pm

Punk,

Don’t push it.

Punk in Drublic
Punk in Drublic
February 8, 2011 6:37 pm

Smokey……
[imgcomment image[/img]

llpoh
llpoh
February 8, 2011 6:42 pm

Stuck – I do not use that shit. I make my own MRP spreadsheets, etc. if and when needed. I do have a story about these systems however (when it comes to manufacturing, I am full of it, er, them.).

I was brought in to turn around a factory that was sending the company broke. It was fucked everywhere – too much inventory, to many overhead personnel, too much paperwork, etc. You name it, and it was screwed up.

The CEO (part owner) of the business had spent several hundred thousand dollars on a manufacturing system program. It took two or three people to run it. I immediately discontinued its use, and put in something more workable and basic, and which I ran myself. Two of the three people I let go, and one I set doing inventory reduction chores.

I erased the program and destroyed all copies of it. It was like the Hydra, and I didn’t want its head to ever rear up again.

A few months later the CEO came in and asked for a copy of the program. I told him that I had destroyed them all. He turned green, as he had presented this system as the solution to all the company’s troubles to the board (and the bank), and they wanted a report as to how it was going.

In the end the bank foreclosed on him and took everything he owned. (The moral there is do not give personal guarantees.). He lost everything. He really had destroyed the business, so I guess it wasn’t unfair, but he was a nice, tho incompetent, person. I saved the business in the end, and it is still alive today with about 150 employees or so. It was a close thing.

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 6:42 pm

If anyone has not yet voted, please go to my first post and vote THUMBS DOWN.

I’m at 9 currently. I NEED to get to 10. I have NEVER seen double digits on the Down side.

I WANT to feel what Smokey feels on a daily basis. Why should he have all the fun?

FUCK YOU, WordPress Gods!!! (Maybe that’ll speed things up.)

LLPOH
LLPOH
February 8, 2011 6:48 pm

Stuck – there you go. You are piss weak if you have to beg for thumbs down to reach ten. You have to alienate a few more readers, that is all. Shit, I have have heaps of double-doubles.

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 6:54 pm

@llpoh

I, too, have seen ERP systems cause companies to fail. It is a huge undertaking. One of the biggest points of failure that is almost always overlooked prior to the purchase is the Culture change involved. Since a full blown system affects every single department, it literally changes everything. The way things were …. just ain’t the way things are. Smaller companies sometimes simply can not handle it.

On the other hand, I have personally seen it change companies around for the better. At some point, homegrown spreadsheets just can not cut the mustard.

Anyway … just curious … can you reveal the name of the software that company was using?

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ
February 8, 2011 6:55 pm

Yeah, I know. I don’t feel piss weak. I do feel like such a hairy-assed Whore.

1 2 3