CoreLogic reported this morning that home prices fell 1.8% in the last month and have now declined for 6 straight months. This means that home prices are falling at an annualized rate of 21%. The post bubble low will be breached next month. Yesterday the MSM was excited by the fact that mortgage delinquencies declined again. The rate had peaked in January 2010 and has been steadily declining.
Now this is the part that requires some thinking. So anyone reading this post that works for CNBC, Seeking Alpha, or any other MSM outlet can go back to your mindless propaganda mode and exit stage left. The hundreds of billions in tax dollars thrown at housing in 2009 and early 2010 for home buyer tax credits and mortgage modification programs temporarily stopped prices from falling. Shockingly, when prices stopped falling, mortage delinquencies started to decline. OK. Got that?
The government’s efforts to prop up the housing market have failed miserably. The hundreds of billions were pissed down the toilet. The prop has been removed and home prices will fall to the level they were always going to fall to. Supply and demand determine price. Prices are now in freefall again. Guess what? In the next few months, mortgage delinquency rates will begin to rise again. Even Larry Kudlow could see this if he knew how to add 2 + 2.
As an added benefit, we are about to enter the huge reset stage for Alt-A fraudulent mortgages. These resets are occurring just as mortgage rates are hitting the highest levels in a year. This will give an added kicker to the foreclosure tsunami on the way.
So, you can listen to your favorite real estate broker who tells you it is the best time to buy, or you can add 2 + 2 and get 4.
According to LPS, 8.83% of mortgages are delinquent (down from 9.02% in November), and another 4.15% are in the foreclosure process (up from 4.08% in November) for a total of 12.98%. It breaks down as:
• 2.56 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 2.12 million loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2.2 million loans in foreclosure process.
For a total of 6.87 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure.
Stuck – I honestly do not remember the program. The best one I ever helped install was an IBM/Xerox joint venture. It went in without a hitch. I have helped with a few over time. My position is always this – if they go in and are up and running fairly quickly, they tend to be good for the company. If there are major start-up issues, I advocate pulling them out. I have never had my advice heeded on that (except where I have had authority, and then I do as I please.). Each time they have persevered, they have failed, and people get fired, etc. My experience is either they work, or they do not, and no amount of massaging will change that fact. However, having spent megabucks, people do not want to own up to their fuck-ups, and push ahead.
Stuck,
You fucking pussy. You are getting your ass torched in the thumbs down department and can’t stand it. Now you are trying to establish an alibi for when you face the certain humiliation later on for being the BIG LOSER.
You have been exposed, caught red-handed in your cesspool of LIES and embarrassing retractions, trying desperately to salvage a thread of dignity. Now, in a disgraceful last ditch effort at avoiding final obliteration, you are trying to manipulate the record to reflect that you INTENDED to get torched on the thumbs down.
You face the same fate as the Administrator, Punk, RE, and all those who dared to cross me.
Total humiliation and complete annihilation.
“You fucking pussy.”
That is an incorrect statement. If I ever run into you, I shall remember this insult, and I will reduce your face to a bleeping pulp of eviscerated flesh. I am able and willing to do so.
However, everything else you said is correct.
Stuck,
I’m a bad mother fucker.
WTF is a bleeping pulp, anyway ?
I think this may be a bleeping pulp:
[img]http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ1JpwGGDtEBSvhJQA0Yu3uAbhHG2H_LlYiRufB9D34CwpAaZA4wzGPXDIQjw[/img]
LMFAO Smokey — I meant “bleeding” …. just like in llpoh’s pic … only you will look a lot worse when I am done with you. You better hope I’m filled with the Holy Spirit if we ever meet up.
Stuck gets caught up in these flame wars and forgets reliable, age old adage:
Sticks and stones.
OK. This is weird. I am not concerned so much about the thumb counts but my only comment to get a thumbs up was the one that didn’t hate on RE. Considering the folks currently commenting that is strange indeed.
LLPOH
I understand your position, that the agent has a responsibility to get the best price for the sellers. And I did give the impression that he could have gotten us to pay more, though actually I doubt it. We offered the asking price, are you saying the agent should have advised the sellers to turn us down and increase it? Is he not doing his job if he doesn’t do that?
I don’t know about the legal duties of a real estate agent, maybe he didn’t do his job, maybe he is an unethical shit. Seems to me there is a fine line between finding the market value and goosing ones commission.
I think I can take BOTH of you if we meet up.
You AND the Holy Spirit.
I just checked my email and a friend in Chicago sent me this. Pretty funny.
==================================================== =
Two magazines, Country Living (95.99% white readership) and
Ebony /Jet (99.99% black readership)
did surveys on “WHAT DO PEOPLE FEAR MOST?”
The results were interesting.
Country Living magazine’s top three answers were:
1. Nuclear war/terrorist attack in U.S.
2. Child/spouse dying
3. Terminal illness
Ebony / Jet magazine’s top three answers were:
1. Ghosts
2. Dogs
3. Registered mail
Punk — Real Estate agents have a Fiduciary Duty to their customers. At least here in NJ. Failure to act in the best interest of the client (difficult to actually prove) will result in a loss of license.
Yes, weird shit is going on here. First time this ever happened today… I voted … and the vote count went DOWN. Like I said, first time ever, but he happened about 5 different times.
I got pissed off at the thumb counts, so I am handling the counts telepathically.
Punk – agents work for the seller. They are ethically bound to work on their behalf. Contracts are not binding until signed. If the agent thinks they can get more, even if it is above the asking price, they are supposed to tell the seller, and/or try to do it. Many would not do this – and it is unethical of them, in my opinion. The asking price is very often set on recommendation of the agent. If the agent has screwed up the recommendation, it is incumbent on them to so advise their client.
Punk – what Stuck said, too.
Stuck – you fucked with the thumb gods, and now you are paying the price. I told you so.
Stuck
So that is a yes? He should have advised the folks selling to turn down our offer and then raise the asking price?
Punk-that answer is yes, he should advise his clients to turn down the offer. It is then up to them to make the decision.
Agents by law (to my understanding) must take ALL offers to their clients (if you offer them $1 dollar for a million dollar property, they must present it to their clients). This is good to remember when bargaining for a property.
If you’re asking from a legal perspective …. I don’t know, as I am not a lawyer.
Mortgage loan officers definately have a Fiduciary Duty … but proving a violation is damn near impossible.
All I can say is that in my opinion that pitting a buyer and seller against each other sure sounds like it. At a minimum, it is highly unethical.
Here is a quick cut and paste from a Realtor site;
============================================ =
Every agent owes certain fiduciary duties to the principal. Traditionally, these duties include:
•Loyalty: To act at all times in the best interest of the principal and to put those interests above all others, including yourself.
•Obedience: To obey promptly all lawful instructions of the principal.
•Disclosure: To disclose all known, relevant facts to the principal.
•Confidentiality: To safeguard the principal’s secrets, unless keeping the confidence would violate disclosure requirements about the property’s condition.
•Reasonable care and diligence: To diligently use real estate skills and knowledge when pursing the principal’s affairs.
•Accounting: To account for all funds and property entrusted by the principal.
OK.
Well, I don’t actually know if the agent fucked up the recommendation, if he thought he could get more or if he advised the sellers to increase the price or not. So I will retract my statement that he could have played them against us and gotten a bigger commission.
I was talking out my ass.
Well …. the Thumbs Gods are one fickle bunch … (aren’t they all?)
As you can clearly see from the funny Poll I submitted … the gods are slowly taking me back in their fold. Amen.
Admin brown nosing Stuck:
[img]http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQc0ZTmuSnEleFmA0vGFxCRuqLIjP4pDyyzm97QJeyGDNLgM9Wl2w[/img]
Stuck plays the part of Jodie Foster,
Smokey plays the part of Hannibal Lecter………..or is it the other way around?
Thank You, Admin. Thank You. You are a wise and omnipotent judge.
If you ever post the war/oil thread you can be assured of my full support and favorable judgement … even if you convert to the Abiotic Religion.
Glory awaits you.
Damnation awaits Smokey.
I waited all afternoon for the Administrator over on the RPES thread and the China thread, but the Administrator was nowhere to be found.
He was in deep hiding, licking his wounds like a cur, terrified to come out and take his medicine. Now, the day’s almost gone and he comes out like he’s a heavyweight champ or something.
Please.
Smokey
You’re going to love this. I’ve been scrambling the last few days at work creating a P&L model for a possible expansion into China. This assures an imminent collapse. IKEA’s profits plunged. Toll Brothers profits collapsed. We know what will happen next.
Stuck greets the Admin:
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Admin assumes the position to make Stuck’s job easier:
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Smokey and his pack of shit eating monkey worshippers eating bugs off each other.
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llpoh greeting his master – Smokey
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I’ve been looking at houses in subdivisions southest of Phoenix(Gilbert, Queen Creek), allegedly the foreclosure capital of the country, and I’m seeing A LOT of new houses being built. Something is not computing here.
Stuck,
I’m ready for the results of the thumb tabulations on this thread.
Just curious how you and I ended up. Or are you praying that some of your douchebag buddies miraculously show up to bail you out ?
Maybe StuckinNJ shuold be SuckupinNJ:
[img
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Sorry Dave – I used your name by mistake. But, hey, seeing as you haven’t chose a side yet, now you are in.
Dave has trouble answering his cell phone. I was wondering how he figured out how to post a picture.
O.K., this is totally hilarious. Thanks for the laughs guys!
Thumbs up for every Stucky post.
Thumbs down for every Smokey post.
All your thumb counts are belong to us.
Punk,
You fucking backstabbing piece of duplicitous shit. It is on with you, motherfucker.
Smokey
Don’t be like that. Stuck called me his best bud, all you do is tell me to eat shit. I have feelings, you know.
Punk sneaks in and lands one:
[img
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But has he opted for the victorious side?
Smokey begins his counter-attack on Punk:
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Smokey follows it up with a straight left:
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Administrator,
The Chinese are the most protectionist dishonest nation in the world when it comes to trade. You go over there and the deck is stacked against you. They’ve been fucking the US in trade for years now.
Those fuckers openly cheated with underage gymnasts in the Olympics on the world stage and then denied it.
Smokey
Harvard opened a location a few years ago and they were robbed blind by their Chinese employees. If we do it, we’ll send Americans to run the show.
Punk,
I’m not through with you, you thankless piece of ungrateful shit.
In fact, I haven’t even started with you.
That’s some kind of fucking gratitude. Cut someone a break that 99% of the world would gladly give their left nut for, and then get used like a K street whore.
You will rue the fucking day that you decided to stick your tongue up Stuck’s ass, ESPECIALLY after ALL the evidence overwhelmingly sided with me.
Watch your back, Punk.
Admin – even with Americans in charge, it is hard to deal with the thieving bastards. Their corruption knows no bounds. I guy I know who helps set up businesses over there said that a very high percentage of times that investments become “donations”. Unreal how they behave.
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Administrator,
If mostly Americans run it, and you know BEFOREHAND what rules and regulations you are faced with, then maybe it will fly if the numbers make sense going in.
Especially if the Chinese government thinks it is in the best interest of their country / government.
Smokey
They already send hundreds of their top executives to Philly for Executive Education programs. If we set up shop in Shanghai, we think they will send their middle level managers. The Chinese are impressed by credentials. Shockingly, my P&L projection shows millions in losses. I wonder how this will end.
Amazingly, 109 comments and about 3 related to the original post.
No need to formally tabulate results, Smokey.
I just got done with a delicious home made spinach lasagna, Dutch Apple Crisps for dessert, and a fine glass of French wine from Trader Joe’s. My belly is full, and I am in a gracious mood.
Therefore, I declare YOU the winner of this debate.
But, I must share one other bit of interesting news with you. Before we started on our sumptuous meal, Ms. Freud and I felt that we needed to also renew our Spirits by reading from the Word of God.
Well, the Bible is a thick book. So, I asked the Lord to guide me to a specific reading that would bless my soul and, if possible, my fans on TBP, whose number is exceedingly large. I then took the closed Bible and opened it. It magically opened to the book of Matthew, Chapter 19. I then closed my eyes and randomly pointed to a verse, and the Lord directed my fingers to verse 30. This is what the Lord saith;
“But many [that are] first shall be last; and the last [shall be] first”
Oh, the Joy!! With tears running down our faces, Ms Freud and I gave praise and glory to the Lord. For you see, by me giving up my rightful victory to you … the Lord Himself declared that I am the winner, and you, my dear sinner friend, are condemned to hell.
I wish it wasn’t so, but God has spoken.
.
.
P.S.; I shall now recline to bed where my OTHER physical need will soon be satisfied. I bid you a good night … and sincere condolences.
.
.
P.S.S; 100+ replies to your thread, Jim, in one day. Well done, good and faithful servant.
Stuck – you have pilfered my name. Now that you have destroyed your reputation on this site, you now seek to sully mine? Nice. Real nice.
Of course, that was me in the above post. Not your new lover (and traitor) llpoh. Stop with your telepathic tricks. Resistance is futile.
Admin – commentators flock to a post for unknown reasons. This one started out well intentioned, but….
If it makes you feel better, we all agree that housing is screwed.
But back on the other thing – you are forecasting huge losses, but they are going ahead anyway? Great.
llpoh
Evidently, there are Chinese billionaires that will fork over millions to bring us there. I’ll believe it when the check clears.
Admin said,
“Amazingly, 109 comments and about 3 related to the original post.”
Uh, this is a surprise? You run a site dedicated to herding cats, and you’re stunned that folks get off topic? I’m shocked, I tell you, simply shocked.
Let me help you out with relevance. Even the MSM isn’t trying to cover up how bad the housing market is, at least not here in uber liberal Tucson. They can’t. No green shoots to report out here. They’re not even trying anymore. You just have to get to page A10 to get to the truth. And skip the opinion column from Paul Krugman.
A neighbor of mine “sold” his house to a Chinese businessman. (Bwahahahaha #1.) He bought another house before the contract settled (Bwahahahaha #2). The Chinese guy had a good attorney, and the contract was loaded with caveats – subject to getting green card, etc. The neighbor, Einstein that he was, believed the verbal assurances from the buyer’s attorney that all would go well (Bwahahahaha #3). I told him (I am good about that, but nobody listens to me) to be careful and that he was in danger of a major screwing. Some months after the sale, and no closing, the Chinese guy pulled out, and the contract was voided, and the deposit was repaid back to the Chinese fellow. My neighbor is now fucked six ways to Sunday. He has to settle his new house, and he has an unconditional contract. He has no money. His current house has dropped a bit in value. His new house has dropped in value (Bwahahahaha #4 + 5). He is now bent over and looking for the vaseline. It is almost impossible that reasonably successful people can be so incredibly stupid. This guy could lose EVERYTHING. What a dolt.