Part I. Why it won’t come easy…
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.
–United States Declaration of Independence
There seems to be a division of thinking when it comes to the 1% vs everybody else. Many people seem to think that their extreme advantage of resources, the power inherent in the existing structure, and the technology they have access to will ensure their continued dominance. Others argue that because they are outnumbered 99 to 1 they can only maintain their control if the 99% remain compliant. While I favor the latter view, questions remain: what percent need to resist in order for the existing power structure to be overthrown? How does the average citizen overcome the massive advantages available to the existing authority? Can this be accomplished with peaceful means, or will the conflict escalate into violence? What does history teach us to expect in the resolution of this crisis? If the existing structure is torn down, will it be replaced by something better or something worse?
In part 1 of this series, we will investigate the strength of the existing authority, and the inherent advantages that the authority holds over the average citizen who would consider resistance. In part 2, we will look at the inherent strengths that the average citizen has in resisting the existing authority. In part 3 we will look at some of the various methods and strategies that the resistance can pursue. And in part 4 we will try to draw some conclusions about the path this crisis phase will take and what history teaches us to expect.
This is not authoritative commentary. This is simply my observation and analysis of the challenges and opportunities that exist to the citizens that are contemplating resistance in an effort to restore the existing government to its constitutional origins or to another form entirely. I welcome your commentary, perspective and wisdom in this study.
Let us look at the various ways in which the 1% are able to maintain their power. First of all is momentum. It is human nature to resist major changes. Sure we like to change to the next new iPhone, but when it comes to major aspects of how we perceive our role in everyday life we ignore, deride, ridicule, or directly oppose both the change as well as those who are advocating it. For that reason most of the major changes we have witnessed in our lifetimes are a result of tiny, seemingly insignificant changes that incrementally alter the way things are. Freedom, taxation and legislation have all incrementally mutated from emancipated, transparent and accessible to incarcerated, opaque and ϋber statutory.
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It takes a major shock to convince people that a change is worthy of the effort required to enact it. Normalcy bias, fear, laziness, and ambivalence all fight to keep things the way they are. Our overall wealth as a society and the extreme amount of “assistance” given over to what has become a large percentage of the population—the disabled, unemployed, and derelict—have insulated us by and large from hardships that have driven other populations around the world to protest, resistance, and violence. Our poor are not starving; they are obese. Our unemployed are not desperate; they are better off with their benefits than with a job. More people are added to the rolls of the disabled every day by the expansion of the definition of disabled, and by the fact that in many cases they can receive more income while doing nothing productive (SNAP, medical, and direct payments) than they could earn with hard work.
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Because of the distortion created and enforced by the various entitlement programs at the federal, state, and local levels, we have witnessed dramatic increases in the numbers of participants in these programs. In turn we have seen the tax revenues that support these programs that are paid through the work of productive citizens drop as more and more people become net recipients of government funds and fewer and fewer people are net contributors. This trend is clearly unsustainable; however, each new person added to the dole is another person that would have to vote for change that would negatively impact their immediate circumstances. History suggests that very few people will be willing to support actions that would hurt their personal short term circumstances in favor of society’s long term prosperity. The consequence of this dynamic is that there will be no slow, transitional wind down of these programs. Instead these programs and the numbers of people involved will continue to grow until the programs fail catastrophically. For that reason, it is my assessment that the growing pool of beneficiaries will not be a significant part of any anti-establishment movement, protest, or revolution.
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A contributing factor to the momentum of the establishment and the slow response of the average citizen is the lack of hardship and suffering he faces. Very few people in the United States go hungry. Very few people are denied medical care. Very few people lack clean water, sleep without shelter, lack adequate clothing, have no access to education, can afford no entertainment, or have no access to sanitation. We are by global comparison a very rich country, and even the poorest in this country live beyond the means of billions worldwide. In short we all have quite a bit to lose, and that changes the riskiness of choosing to resist.
In my personal situation I have a wife and two children, I own a business that employs 14 people, I have property and investments (not a lot), I have 5 sisters, my mom and pop are living, and I have many close ties in my community. If I choose to resist the government I put all of those people, all of my property, and all of my ties at risk. I also put my life and health at risk. I put my freedom at risk (such as it is). In essence I put everything that is near and dear to me at risk, and that does (and should) enter into my decision to resist or to comply.
With our poorest tamed by the entitlements they would lose if they resist, the burden of resistance then falls upon a group of people with plenty to lose. Their incentive is the awakening to the reality that not resisting may cost them all of the same things; however, the risk equation remains “if I resist I will risk all of my treasured people and possessions” vs. “if I resist I may risk all of my treasured people and possessions.”
Another significant factor in favor of maintaining control by the existing authority is force. The establishment powers, whether behind the scenes (the bankers) or in full view (the politicians) have near complete capture of all the federal (the military, DHS, CIA, FBI, et al), the state (National Guard, SBI, State Troopers, et al) and local (sheriff, city police, et al) agencies. While there is some question floating around the blogosphere about whether or not the members of those agencies will be willing to fire upon civilians history and recent events make it clear that at least the majority will comply with the orders they receive. For the same reason that the average citizen is overwhelmed when thinking of how and when to resist authority, the front line soldier or officer is similarly daunted by thoughts of bucking the chain of command. When you combine that with the very real threat of armed resistance, the possibility of significant violence cannot be ignored.
While any violence on the part of the agents of authority will likely escalate the overall level of resistance in the general population, it is certainly going to discourage any people who are caught up in the festival aspect of the resistance from continuing. The real and present threat of violence and death is a great deterrent; it is not a coincidence that tyrannical governments across the globe and throughout history have made effective use of violence in putting down discontent. While it will cement the resolve of the committed and work to increase the number of people who have suffered significant enough indignity and hardship to risk their lives, a large number of people will be too fearful to support the resistance and will in fact look to establish their own safety by actively helping the establishment root out the resistance.
Along with direct force there are force multipliers like air support, heavy weapons, command and control capabilities, control over the infrastructure, night vision and infrared tracking, satellite surveillance, the network of in place surveillance and traffic cameras, body armor, on-line intercepts of emails, phone taps, the ability to shut down transportation systems, forensic analysis, and training. How does a single citizen cope with the myriad ways in which the governing authority can deploy massive resources and multiply their effectiveness? When he realizes that he must join with others to pool resources and capabilities, how does he find or recruit his team without leaving a trace that will be detected by the government or co-opted to its benefit? It is, to say the least, a daunting challenge.
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Non-defense government (federal, state, and local) consumption and gross investment as percentage of GDP, 1929-2008
Anyone who has ever gone on an extended hike in the wilderness has come face to face with the importance and the challenge of logistics. Like a rocket that uses 90% of the fuel to lift the fuel that lifts the rocket into orbit, a hiker must carry more food to offset the extra energy expended by carrying a heavy load of food onto the trail. Furthermore, any tools or materials he needs must be carried along if they cannot be fabricated or acquired along the way, so if the hiker has any desire to do much more than walk (eg. take pictures, drink, sleep, cook, or bandage a cut), he has to carry the means to do so along with him.
For that reason the modern day resistance movement will begin as a largely local phenomenon. People cannot afford to deploy themselves to faraway places and risk their source of income and/or support the additional expense. There will necessarily need to be help in the form of food, medicine, shelter, and materials above and beyond what the average resister will be able to provide, and that lifeline of support is easily constrained or severed by the power in authority.
Conversely the government in all of its forms and agencies has nearly unlimited resources (at least in the short to medium term) in the form of cash, supplies, transportation, and secure storage to support its activities. It rules the air and roads and sea and rails, and it can deploy immense amounts of resources in a short period of time if needed. Furthermore there is no opportunity for any single citizen to limit the reach and ability of the government to deploy those resources. It is simply the case of only being able to stop one grain of sand in a landslide.
The powers that be also have complete authority and control over all of the major channels of communication. They can manipulate, halt, or utilize all TV, radio (broadcast), newspaper, internet, radio (point to point), telephone, snail mail and satellite communications at will. They can monitor, intercept, jam, encrypt or decrypt nearly any message that a modern day citizen can compose. That leaves the resister the option of sending messages that are very difficult to hide and protect, or sending messages that travel at very slow speeds by off the grid methods.
Hand in hand with the ability to communicate is the ability to coordinate. Existing agencies have command and control structures in place that allow orders from leadership to be executed quickly and reliably. Those agencies have extensive practice and established methods for preserving their chain of command and those in the chain are well versed in the execution of the orders they receive. The command structure is redundant and well insulated from the agents in the field of operations, and is virtually immune to any action on the part of the citizen that has chosen to resist.
That citizen in turn is working with other autonomous people and groups (if he is working with anyone at all) who’s participation is completely voluntary. They may agree to carry out the requests he makes, but they may only agree to part of the action. They may decide to change the time table. They may decide to back out without notice. Or they may become otherwise engaged and be limited in the sense of accountability they feel and/or be limited in their ability to communicate their change in direction. It is very easy to take out the leadership since the leadership is also likely to be the operator in the field. There is little or no redundancy, and there is little or no practice in cooperative action. Furthermore the more cooperative and effective the group becomes, the more likely they are to become a target of strategic priority by the forces of the powers in place.
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The last major category of strength this analysis will address is financial. Despite the overwhelming debt, the deficits, and the lack of solvency in the government at the federal, state, and local levels the fact remains that the financial powers can (and will) continue to create money to fund their activities. There are many questions about whether or not this course of action is sustainable or effective; however, there is little doubt that it will continue. The wealth of the United States is tremendous, and even though it is being steadily diluted by the devaluation of the dollar, there remains an enormous amount of wealth yet to dilute. Consider that the total notional wealth of the United States is around $56T. Even maintaining budget deficits that are funded by printing new dollars, it would take around 30 years to consume the wealth through the expansion of the currency.
Now I know that it is a good bit more complicated than that; however, the fact remains that there is massive wealth left that can be consumed. Furthermore it is likely that the existing debt will be defaulted and wiped out. While there are numerous disruptions inherent is such a scenario the government will be free of its encumbrances and will be able to continue to print new money (even if it is called something else or initially backed by other assets). What this means is that for all practical purposes the government will remain unconstrained in its spending while the average citizen will be anything but. More importantly, as the government creates more and more money, the wealth of the citizen will continue to decline further limiting him from saving or deploying his assets towards effective resistance even as the devaluation creates more and more people desperate enough to consider action.
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An average citizen faces an enormous, frightening and disheartening challenge if he chooses to resist; however, that has always been true throughout history when the brave and often tragic souls of the past have decided that enough was enough. No government in world history has lasted very long; most have failed in a much shorter span than the United States has lasted. Neither success nor failure is baked in the cake. In the next part, we will look at the inherent strengths that the average citizen has in resisting the existing authority.
A+
wow. an excellent, well presented piece.
i was working on a much shorter, more superficial article on the same topic. glad i didn’t finish it and post it. your article puts mine as i conceived it to shame.
very well done sonic.
Looks like a masterpiece. I will read it when I have the time.
I’ll also have to finish this later. But one sentence did ring true.
“…. the growing pool of beneficiaries will not be a significant part of any anti-establishment movement, protest, or revolution.”
Listening to NPR this morning on the way into work, there seems to be a new crisis in the form of a drug shortage. The president has delivered an executive order to “reduce a dire shortage of life-saving hospital medications…”
Obama did not require Congressional approval but many feel this is not enough, and that the government will have to step in, and possibly take over pharmaceuticals. The shortages are being blamed on profits, if the moneys’ not there, they “allegedly” wont make the drugs. This is the spin.
More and more of these shortages will be reported, until the population demands the government step in, and take over the pharmaceuticals.
Not many will be willing to fight a government who is giving them pills.
“what percent need to resist in order for the existing power structure to be overthrown?”
For what it’s worth, at the time of the American Revolution, the population was about 2.5 million. The number who actually fought the battles was 25,000.
Looking forward to parts 2-3-4!
Brilliant analysis. Sonic for President in 2012. He can run on TBP ticket.
The best article I’ve read in a very long time.
I think this chart speaks the loudest.
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Sonic, nice piece !
You guys are making me feel all warm an fuzzy…I pretty sure I expected something a little more phallic and violent from this crowd. Thank you though. I have decided that if I don’t get some of this shit rattling around inside my head out It will pop right off my shoulders. I need some perspective. Sometimes I think they will still be kicking this can down the road twenty years from now. In my head it should have all crashed a year ago.
Mel Tappan (author of Survival Guns among other similar topics) was convinced in the late 70s that you should dump your holdings and head for the hills. Thirty years later it still feels true, but who is to say it won’t last another 50 years. My feeling is that like a recession we won’t really know it is too late until we can look back a couple years and say “that is when it happened”. So how do you plan around that?
There was the anecdotal (unsubstantiated) story of the university professor who quit his job in the 30s to avoid getting tangled up in WWII. According to the story he purchased a nice spread of land on a far away island in the South Pacific a thousand miles from anywhere important…Guadalcanal. Even if it isn’t true, the story illustrates the point that you may choose to run, but it may find you anyway.
I want to see my children grow up with a future that is open ended, where they have the hope to make a better life for their children. That to me is the essence of the American Dream. I don’t see that now, and I am trying to figure out for myself what to do about it. I am angry enough to fight; but I know that violence begets violence, and the real hope for a lasting positive change is through peaceful protest. I also know that it takes a much bigger set of brass balls to sit there and remain peaceful while the gestapo beats you up (or worse) than it does to hit back.
Cordially,
Sonic
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Sonic
I think there was similar story about a farmer who moved from near Bull Run after the first battle to the little town of Antietam.
It won’t be 30 years. We’ll reach a climax for this Crisis in the early 2020s.
I believe you. I’ve read the 4th T several times. It is a big “ah ha” book for me. It makes some of the madness make sense. To that end I have water, food, guns, etc, and I will continue to collect more resources that make sense.
In the meantime I have a business that continues to make a profit (even adjusted for inflation–SGS inflation). I have to continue in my every day since that is what has given me the flexibility to prepare. But I also realize that just because I believe it, and I think that it is a well thought out theory it doesn’t mean it will happen or happen in any way I can anticipate.
The 4th T pattern happened in Rome up until the point it was burned and the civilization crumbled to dust. Then there was 1000 years or more of no pattern (or a different one).
A Sonic epic masterpiece. Whoda thunk it?
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Hey Stuck
Do you think the prince of darkness has left for good?
So much “meat” here … don’t know where to start.
Let’s start by two Sonic quotes;
1) “… inherent advantages that the authority holds over the average citizen who would consider resistance …”
2) “An average citizen faces an enormous, frightening and disheartening challenge if he chooses to resist; however, that has always been true throughout history ”
Disheartening indeed!! TPTB have sooooo many advantages over us … soooo many ways to spy on us …..soooo many ways to track us, beat us down, and keep us in submission. History is an ill guide to predicting whether or not the people can revolt successfully …. this time. No previous revolutions faced an opponent as powerful, and with soooo many tools, as the TPTB have today. It seems hopeless.
So, I greatly look forward to the next installment — the inherent strengths WE have.
.
If I may be so bold and summarize what Sonic is saying via the picture below.
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The government has both the carrot and the stick …. two POWERFUL tools.
The stick, as Sonic’s graphs show is a Prison System that would make Stalin blush. Thousands upon thousands (literally) of felonies. The stick is a convoluted and egregious Tax System that punishes only the productive members of society. The stick is millions of pages of regulations that keep businesses in a perpetual state of fear and anxiety.
The carrot as Sonic’s graphs so clearly show is all the Free Shit the government has its disposal. Endless Free Shit. To keep the slaves happy. Happy eating stale bread … while thinking they are eating at a feast. And the saddest thing is we are fools by choice, not coersion.
In the Age of Technology who would have thought that Carrots & Sticks would be some damn effective?
Sonic: Great stuff, mistuh!
Prepare yourself physically and mentaly… an investment with no risk except a headache and maybe soreness.
If you get tossed in the can for sedition, at least you’ll be a pitcher, not a catcher
Peace is the way.
Even when he left last time he still lurked here, by his own admission. Once “hooked”, TBP is a VERY VERY difficult place to leave forever. DP tries to come back. RE still lurks. I stayed on RD for a while. But we all come back.
The desire to motherfuck small children and innocent victims may be too great for Smokey to resist. No other website or blogger will allow his shit. I think he’ll be back. I’ll pretend to like him for a while. Then in a few months there will be a monkey shit throwing fest where my true feelings come out. Then he’ll leave, again. I think they call this The Circle of Life.
A frighteningly informative and concise analysis. The very reason I make sure I
visit this site. Individuals who post on this site usually don’t provide me with the information I want to
hear, but they do provide me with information I need to hear. I’ll be back for more, and I would expect that someday in the future any number of beady eyed gov. snoops will too, if participating members of this site keep on putting out their honest assesments of our ever worsening economic and social problems. Things might get nasty someday if enough of the trolls finally open up to the truth which they will usually find right here. Thanks
@Admin: No, the Princess of Darkness has not left for good.
@Sonic: Fuckin A++++.
You correctly lay out the problems and I eagerly await your solution(s). Let’s toss ’em in the TBP Crucible and see what smelts out!!!
Where you need to go with this is NOT Revolution but Restoration. Revolution comes from the word “revolve” which implies things spinning around, on some kind of pivot point, and, with the exception of the American Revolution, ending up with exactly where they started. Since human beings are involved, things are usually worse for the exercise.
What can the individual citizen do? You’ve laid it out with your graphs of the incarcerated, the dependent and the impoverished. Whoever pays you, owns you. Whoever feeds you, owns you. Whoever is in charge of your liberty, owns you. If you are owned, you are enslaved, by definition.
So it’s pretty simple, really. But it involves risk. Each awake person is going to have to unplug from the American Matrix, stay out of trouble, start working towards some food sustainability. Simplify your life and stop enslaving yourself to buy increasingly worthless gimcrackery from China. Go off the grid, dip below the radar. Form groups of like-minded individuals. Starve the Beast by using cash, putting your $$$ in local credit unions or local banks. Shave your taxes to the sticking point.
Above all, you need to know who your enemy is. Your enemy is NOT the police, NOT “the rich”, NOT “terrorism”, NOT the Tea Party. Basically your enemy is NOT anybody or anything your fed.gov says it is.
Your enemy IS the Cthuhlu Leviathian spawned by the incestuous mating of a corrupt and lawless fed.gov with the greed-heads of Wall Street. It is an almost unstoppable monster, w/ tentacles into the highest levels of our political, legal and financial systems. It (currently) controls our energy and food sectors, our entertainment and “news” sources. Its siren call of power and wealth speaks to the very darkest corners of the human soul. It seems a Herculean task to confront and defeat it. One’s mind almost cannot comprehend the enormity of such a battle. One’s spirit quails at the task of then restoring the country to the principles of its founding and the rule of law.
Sorta’ makes your Hope be at Zero Kelvin, aha, aha.
HZK
I meant Smokey.
Oh, well. He probably got tired of getting mobbed on the OWS threads.
But he’s a fighter and will not be out for long.
Long Live Smokey!!!
Hope
I put up the Jon Stewart segment just for you. I’m always trying to brighten your day.
Sonic,
Great piece. Looking forward to parts 2-4.
For the first time ever I voted thumbs down on a HZK post @12:23.
So Solly.
Smokey gets “mobbed”. I get “moobed”, but I ain’t running away like a mangy cur!
“How does the average citizen overcome the massive advantages available to the existing authority? Can this be accomplished with peaceful means, or will the conflict escalate into violence? What does history teach us to expect in the resolution of this crisis? If the existing structure is torn down, will it be replaced by something better or something worse?”
Jeezus Friggin Christ! When I ask questions like this I get thumb-fucked and called a dumb-ass.
Dave
Dumbfuck not dumbass.
Yeah, see, Hope’s a badass. One time my girlfriend glanced at the screen and saw “Hope@ZeroKelvin” and she pointed and yelled “NERD!!” (She’s an egg-headed nerd too).
“THAT is awesome… you know she’s a nerd”
As for Smokey, he better be back. Lately, as could be seen from Davos’ Four-day, no holes barred, vitriolic tirade, there’s been an “Occupy TBP” groundswell. I’ve smelled it for weeks. Whatever. A good time to be busy, I say.
All that matters is for Thinker, Admin and Howard’s thoughts yesterday: We got to keep this boomer shit at bay. Look at Sonic’s graphs… we’ve been in a Boomer Bubble for two decades. It’s time for the Nomads, who aren’t wretched Boomer mini-mes, to heed the advice of the wiser and begin to toss the shit jokes of advice aside… The kids desreve better.
I heard on the radio that the ptbs are alarmed by social media. The boot will squeeze the modern pamphleteer, the blogger, soon.
With that, Hope’s advice is golden…
Until lunch time…
“Administrator says:
Brilliant analysis. Sonic for President in 2012. He can run on TBP ticket.”
This article is the reason I come here. I look forward to the rest of the series. Laid out in simple facts and truths. I will cut, paste, and save.
I’m thoroughly convinced that OWS will not succeed with violence (because the vast majority stand to risk what they don’t want to lose, and I am convinced that the only answer to overthrowing the government/cprporate oligarchy is to replace it from within. THIRD PARTY.
Sonic, thank you. Can’t wait to read the rest of your series.
In the field of “change management” (yes, there are such things), it’s often said that the way to create real change is to make the fear of NOT changing greater than the fear of change. Our government knows this all too well, and that is the primary reason for keeping the Free Shit coming, to ever greater numbers of the population. The rest — the normalcy bias — can be achieved through media intervention, propaganda and the like (circuses).
If what Colma says is true — that TPTB are starting to worry about social media — then we should begin to develop Plan B for communications. It’s likely it will be far more localized, but I suspect most of us have identified people within our communities with similar ideals. And the OWS movement certainly is engendering that on a local level.
Sonic’s next piece, on the inherent strengths that the average citizen has in resisting the existing authority, will be very interesting.
MUST WATCH video.
Don’t know if this was posted while I was offline this week. If, so, so solly.
If not, did I mention this is a MUST WATCH vid?
Navy man stands holding The Constitution amidst tear gas in OWS Oakland. It gave me the chills. The kind of non-violence that turns heads, and gets results. I hope.
Well, I hate to say it, but the “Lone Wolf” idea will disappear like a pimple in a snapshot of 7 Billion faces.
The precious GDP is now a measure of servitude.
I want an easy life without strife.
(Nevuh gonna geddit, beoch!)
Revolutions bring things BACK…. Hope was correct.
The greatest hope for the 4th Turning is to move forward to something better.
(Nevuh gonna get it, nevuh gonna get it, BEOCH)
My conciense speaking…
Great post, sonic….. You need to package it, graphics and all, and submit it for publication with the LA Times or the Financial Times.
Seriously, it’s solid and short a little editorial clipping here and there, we’ll worth publication elsewhere..
I look forward to the other’s in the series..
MA
What an exceptional piece. You really grabbed my attention with your first graph; very few people acknowledge the incarceration rate in this country while discussing the modes/vehicles of government enslavement. The impact is huge, particularly given the lifelong loss of voting rights for ex-convicts.
Here’s another huge thing that very few people acknowledge, and it speaks directly to Stucky’s observation that “History is an ill guide to predicting whether or not the people can revolt successfully …. this time. No previous revolutions faced an opponent as powerful, and with soooo many tools, as the TPTB have today. It seems hopeless.
http://www.raytheon.com/capabilities/products/silent_guardian/
Numbers don’t matter anymore. Not when Middle Eastern targets are eliminated by a drone being controlled in San Diego. Not when a single person can press a button and disperse a crowd of a half million in seconds.
It’s a wonder that such primitive weapons as tear gas and beanbags are being deployed in Oakland. Guess they’re saving the big guns for later. And there are many, many big guns that have been developed in the last ten to twenty years without intent for use overseas.
I, too, look forward to the next chapter of this piece, Sonic, with the hope that your vision of the future is brighter than my own. To me, resistance does not seem feasible, for all the reasons you outlined (plus the Raytheon Ray Gun) and the concept of revolution, as Hope@ZeroKelvin said, just brings us back to the same place… if people are going to be willing to risk everything, it has to be for something better. And in terms of creating something better, in the form of a Restoration (as H@ZK words it) or a Resolution, our society is so deeply divided at this point in history that it’s impossible to envision its coalescence around a new, viable and just democracy.
We were fortunate to manage the first go, for heaven’s sake. The Constitution existed for all of forty years before the Supreme Court granted personhood to corporations (Dartmouth College v Woodward, 1819.) Is it a wonder that a system of government based upon equality would eventually be derailed by an economic system premised upon inequality? No one should really be surprised. From this standpoint, we’re really in the market for a Reconciliation.
We can look to history, review the Fourth Turning, to see the obvious. Analyze the patterns in the charts before executing the trade. Comfort ourselves by seeking confirmation, and validation, of what we purport to know. But to realistically prepare for the days to come? Even with wilderness survival training and extensive preparation, when the Black Swan descends my fate will come down to sheer luck.
But I await Sonic’s next chapter just the same, with the expectation that he knows a few things that I don’t. “Thoughts on a Modern Revolution” will be read and discussed by tens of thousands in the coming weeks, and that, in and of itself, bodes well for our collective future.
“Administrator says:
Dave
Dumbfuck not dumbass.”
I stand corrected. This is why you are the administrator. Only you could make a distinction without a difference and get 4 thumbs up. I’ll make it 5
I’ll make two observation/questions for you to beat on.
#1. Stucky did you see the interview by Ed Schultz, with the navyman?
#2. Does anyone see the Democrat Party as trying to glom onto OWS as a source to regain power in the House?
Beautifully written thought-provoking piece. Thank you, Sonic.
A superb overview of the formidable odds we’re up against.
Many years ago, legal scholar William J. Quirk wrote an outstanding book entitled “Abandoned: The Betrayal of the American Middle Class since WWII” whereby he and his coauthor, a law professor, made the case for using Article V to overthrow our completely rotten-to-the-core federal Leviathan. I still rate it to this day as one of the most important books I’ve ever read, and after reading it ordered 6 add’l copies to hand out to others and asked that they, in turn, pass it on to others who would actually read it. The Article V provision was put into place by our brilliant founding fathers for this express purpose and it is the vehicle for holding a 2nd constitutional convention. The scholars dealt too with the oft-expressed fears that many have articulated that it could turn into a runaway instrument for tyranny, but as they noted… we’re THERE. Modern-day Bolsheviks’ have captured our government and as anyone knows who has studied communism – particularly in Russia, we really should be VERY afraid. Moreover, needed corrections could be crafted in ensuring a small government (again) and important oversights (ie. term limits for any representatives and ending tenure for federal judges) rectified.
Constitutional scholar Dr. Edwin Vieira Jr. likewise advocates revolution through the states. Indeed he declares it MUST come through the states because that is precisely what’s prescribed as a legal remedy. The problem we face right now is the state governments and even local governments have become mired in corruption and as addicted to mindless spending as our Behemoth in Washington. But given a few years of severe austerity and no bailouts, they will likely be more amenable to drastic measures and the solution of peaceful revolution by simply disbanding the existing structure and beginning anew. The primacy of the powers ceded to the states by our constitution have long been usurped and trampled on by Big Brother and now Big Sis too. The means for wresting it back lies in Article V.
The patriot truthteller/activist Dylan Ratigan is heading up a movement for a new constitutional amendment to divorce money from politics. It’s a start. His efforts are to be commended, and I hope everyone will take the time to sign his petition and email it to those in your databank.
Financial reformist Daryl Robert Schoon also believes that eventually the Federal Reserve is going to be slayed through the constitutional amendment process as well.
Article V may be a long ways off, but in the meantime we have the less difficult amendment procedures we could put into play.
I personally would like to see every Congressional member (serving or retired) who’ve betrayed this country at every turn through sovereign-destroying “free-trade” agreements, immigration policy disasters (especially in view of the blatant lies told by the drunken sop Kennedy that the “1965 immigration reform” would do nothing to change the demographics of this country), bankster bailouts, warmongering on whims, those dual citizens and others who’ve put the interests of Israel above our own and virtually all who’ve otherwise betrayed their oaths to uphold the constitution stripped of their pensions and tried for treason.
If all the legal eagles infesting our Congress saw millions of people holding “Peaceful Revolution is the Solution: Article V.” They would GET it. Such messages would leave them shaking in their shoes.
Dave,
I did not see it. Do you have a link?
I am both surprised and gratified by all of the positive comments, but I’m a little bit disappointed too. I was hoping to get some feedback from you on the things I have missed, things I should have considered or other things I should have included.
The Raytheon pain ray is interesting, but does it change anything strategically or tactically? I would say no because it is just one of a hundred ways the citizen is out gunned or outpaced technologically. Do you think anyone is going to win a stand up fight with our military? Look at Afghanistan, they did not wage a stand up fight against Alexander the Great, the USSR, or the USA…and yet they have won in every case. Oh sure in each case the “conqueror” held the major cities for a couple years, but in every case they ran out of resources and bailed out without having done much more than subdued the urban centers.
Regardless I’m hoping that it doesn’t come to fighting in the violent sense in any case. No one wins that kind of fight. It is not coincidence that the civil war was our bloodiest. If you look around the world the places that are fighting that kind of war are full of the worst that humanity can think up to do. Humanity can be a creative and cruel motherfucker indeed.
My wife was pretty upset with me for posting this article. It isn’t that she is opposed to what I have to say, although her opinions are her own. She is afraid that just talking about this will create severe repercussions on my business, her job, our family, and our lives. That we live today in a country where that is a legitimate fear is why this must be said now while it can. If you’re reading this blog you’re probably on every watch list database in existence. Do you want to wait until you’re talking through the chain link fence to an impassive 19 year old guard who has been told that you’re sub-human and below contempt? That you are unpatriotic and a subversive? As you try to explain that you just want to see your family again? That is the template of history, ladies and gentlemen. That is not an exaggeration or a dramatization. If you stay silent now, there will be no one to listen later. If you do not stand up now peacefully, you will have to run or fight later if you still can.
Cordially,
Sonic
For those remaining, willfully-ignorant Americans (and we have them in abundance) still believing that this cementing and rapidly escalating police state by the Bolsheviks’ within has anything to do with their contrived “war on terrorists,” the following should divest you of any such remaining delusions. It will crystalize that this war IS being waged AGAINST the American people and to protect the central bank$ters and Wall $treet shysters whilst they pick over the remaining morsels of a pillaged-and-dying middle-class.
Contemporary Americans have never known the tyranny that accompanies hard collectivism, but they are about to find out the kind of repression the bulk of humanity have long suffered under if we fail to defeat it. Ron Paul has been warning us for decades of creeping totalitarianism; today… hundreds-of-thousands are sounding the sirens:
November 1, 2011 READ THE LATEST ON “OCCUPY WALL STREET”
Wall Street Firms Spy on Protesters In Tax-Funded Center
by Pam Martens
“Wall Street’s audacity to corrupt knows no bounds and the cooptation of government by the 1 per cent knows no limits. How else to explain $150 million of taxpayer money going to equip a government facility in lower Manhattan where Wall Street firms, serially charged with corruption, get to sit alongside the New York Police Department and spy on law abiding citizens.
According to newly unearthed documents, the planning for this high tech facility on lower Broadway dates back six years. In correspondence from 2005 that rests quietly in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s archives, NYPD Commissioner Raymond Kelly promised Edward Forst, a Goldman Sachs’ Executive Vice President at the time, that the NYPD “is committed to the development and implementation of a comprehensive security plan for Lower Manhattan…One component of the plan will be a centralized coordination center that will provide space for full-time, on site representation from Goldman Sachs and other stakeholders.”
At the time, Goldman Sachs was in the process of extracting concessions from New York City just short of the Mayor’s first born in exchange for constructing its new headquarters building at 200 West Street, adjacent to the World Financial Center and in the general area of where the new World Trade Center complex would be built. According to the 2005 documents, Goldman’s deal included $1.65 billion in Liberty Bonds, up to $160 million in sales tax abatements for construction materials and tenant furnishings, and the deal-breaker requirement that a security plan that gave it a seat at the NYPD’s Coordination Center would be in place by no later than December 31, 2009.
The surveillance plan became known as the Lower Manhattan Security Initiative and the facility was eventually dubbed the Lower Manhattan Security Coordination Center. It operates round-the-clock. Under the imprimatur of the largest police department in the United States, 2,000 private spy cameras owned by Wall Street firms, together with approximately 1,000 more owned by the NYPD, are relaying live video feeds of people on the streets in lower Manhattan to the center. Once at the center, they can be integrated for analysis. At least 700 cameras scour the midtown area and also relay their live feeds into the downtown center where low-wage NYPD, MTA and Port Authority crime stoppers sit alongside high-wage personnel from Wall Street firms that are currently under at least 51 Federal and state corruption probes for mortgage securitization fraud and other matters.
In addition to video analytics which can, for example, track a person based on the color of their hat or jacket, insiders say the NYPD either has or is working on face recognition software which could track individuals based on facial features. The center is also equipped with live feeds from license plate readers.”
Later:
“According to Commissioner Kelly in public remarks, the privacy guidelines were written by Jessica Tisch, the Director of Counterterrorism Policy and Planning for the NYPD who has played a significant role in developing the Lower Manhattan Security Coordination Center. In 2006, Tisch was 25 years old and still working on her law degree and MBA at Harvard, according to a wedding announcement in the New York Times. Tisch is a friend to the Mayor’s daughter, Emma; her mother, Meryl, is a family friend to the Mayor.
Tisch is the granddaughter and one of the heirs to the now-deceased billionaire Laurence Tisch who built the Loews Corporation. Her father, James Tisch, is now the CEO of the Loews Corporation and was elected by Wall Street banks to sit on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York until 2013 representing the public’s interest. (Clearly, the 1 per cent think they know what’s best for the 99 per cent.)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is the entity which doled out the bulk of the $16 trillion in bailout loans to the U.S. and foreign financial community. Members of Tisch’s family work for Wall Street firms or hedge funds which have prime broker relationships with them. A division of Loews Corporation has a banking relationship with Citigroup.
The Tisch family stands to directly benefit from the surveillance program. In June of this year, Continental Casualty Company, the primary unit of the giant CNA Financial which is owned by Loew’s Corp., signed a 19-year lease for 81,296 square feet at 125 Broad Street – an area under surveillance by the downtown surveillance center.
Loews Corporation also owns the Loew’s Regency Hotel on Park Avenue in midtown, an area which is also now under round-the-clock surveillance on the taxpayer’s dime.
Wall Street is infamous for perverting everything it touches: from the Nasdaq stock market, to stock research issued to the public, to auction rate securities, mortgages sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, credit default swaps with AIG, and mortgage securitizations. Had a public hearing been held on this massive surveillance sweep of Manhattan by potential felons, hopefully someone might have pondered what was to prevent Wall Street from tracking its employee whistleblowers heading off to the FBI offices or meeting with a reporter.
One puzzle has at least been solved. Wall Street’s criminals have not been indicted or sent to jail because they have effectively become the police.
Pam Martens worked on Wall Street for 21 years. She spent the last decade of her career advocating against Wall Street’s private justice system, which keeps its crimes shielded from public courtrooms. She has been writing on public interest issues for CounterPunch since retiring in 2006. She has no security position, long or short, in any company mentioned in this article. She can be reached at [email protected]”
For the entire piece, see:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=27295
Ron Paul targets terrorists … INSIDE U.S. government
October 30, 2011 by Jack Blood
http://deadlinelive.info/2011/10/30/ron-paul-targets-terrorists-inside-u-s-government-read-more-ron-paul-targets-terrorists-inside-u-s-government/
Sonic
There are numerous additional ways the government can — or is — manipulating and enslaving the population. Start with education, and how/what children are taught. Police drills in schools. Then the media, its mind-numbing programming and purposeful quashing of any ‘real’ news. Then utility and water systems in major urban areas; not only additives in water, but how easy it would be to inject psychotropic drugs to control the population, if need be. Heck, even a medical profession that has prescribed more anti-depressants and mood-altering drugs than any other nation on earth. Data exist that can back up any of these points, and even more.
Your wife is right to be worried. But that just makes your work even more important. Martha Washington, Abigail Adams and other wives — of Revere, Paine, Henry and other great patriots — probably all worried, as well. But where would we be today if their husbands had taken the safe route?
i am happy to give you some feedback.
first, my attitude regarding repercussions is bring it on. and this attitude would only be somewhat tempered if i had a wife and kids. because i just don’t cower. easy to say, as i have lived in america all my life, and i have never had to.
(i’m not an idiot; i have backed down from and kissed ass to cops plenty of times. i mean as an overriding attitude and behavior. in a particular situation with a cop, i will pussy out to avoid a ticket, arrest, or a cop gun drawn on my ass from being discharged in my face.)
in this weird time, i want to know if the authorities are gonna pay me a visit because i have posted FUCK THE POLICE on a message board. i want them to show themselves; i think the odds of getting ‘disappeared to gitmo’ are as remote as they were for harold and kumar. at least today.
and i am filled with contempt at how dumb cops are. politicians too. even fbi agents, who are not dumb, and i respect those guys and gals a lot, are just not gonna be able to fuck with me. they can’t scare me; i can afford a good lawyer, and i will flat out refuse to talk to them and spend a couple of days in a cell waiting for them to let me call that good lawyer.
i’m not such a hard case. but even with all the torture committed in the war on terror, they just have not yet ratcheted it up to anything more than mild harassment so far. (and i would cry like the little bitch i am and give up stucky in a minute if they did clamp the battery cables to my privates. i am not being an internet tough guy here.)
i could give a fuck about databases. if two years from now, i am questioned about some shit i put on the internet today, same as above. that just means it is time for me to start behaving like an active revolutionary, or get the fuck out of the country.
that is me, and that is today. i expect conditions to change in the coming years. and i will adapt or i will move (new zealand or somewhere).
i was going to write an article on one of your broad topics. that americans are fat, comfortable, completely unaware of the real story (mostly stuck in the ignorant fake gop vs dem dichotomy), and completely unfamiliar with critically thinking about the real story outside of the ignorant fake dichotomy.
the vast millions of americans are way too well fed and non-thinking to do anything, even attend a protest, as a tourist. much less become a regular protester, or take any action against the government/system.
lenin and marx spoke of the proletariat being sufficiently ‘prepared’ or ‘enlightened’ for revolution to be possible. (of course lenin was wrong about recognizing that the working folks in russia were ready). we are no where near ready.
only a huge shock can overcome the inertia and comfort of americans. much worse unemployment would be a start. tremendous economic failure could do it.
you said this already. i would only stress how fat and happy americans are today, even those on food stamps and their 99 weeks of unemployment bennies. what i would suggest is this factor trumps your other large points.
as long as only tiny numbers of people are going to do anything more than nod their head in approval of OWS, it doesn’t matter the numbers of soldiers/police officers under the command of the politicians, or their firepower and hardware. control of the media and information channels matter because of what they have created over the past 20 years, not going forward. an informed, enlightened mass ignores the propaganda and seeks out true news no matter how rare, obscure or difficult to obtain. no one in the ussr believed what they read in pravda by the 70s and 80s. but today, here, there are tremendous sources of real info, that people ignore. most people don’t even watch tv news–they watch their favorite specialty programming on cable, or idol/dancing with the stars/whatever. i could argue the fine points of your media comments, but people are too comfortable to even think about the media reaching them, much less consume it critically.
i think nothing matters until enough people are uncomfortable enough to actually think; and then to do something. ain’t gonna happen until a huge shock hits us.
shit, i ain’t got much to add. you said a mouthfull, and said it quite well.
last thing. my parents and other sources taught me that during slavery, and during jim crow, many folks got by keeping their mind free. as a child and as a medical student/intern/resident, i scraped and bowed before authority; but my mind was never captured. hopefully in that same tradition.
if possessed of a free mind, there is a lot more freedom of action, expression and behavior still available to any american today. too bad so few folks use it. or are aware of the status of their own mind.
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Howard: I am just amazed at how many lazy slobs (knowledge wise) sit at a dinner table and talk, matter of factly, as if they’ve gained an Alexandria’s worth of wisdom, about any current affair… and it’s exactly what’s on the radio at work…
Really.
The dumbasses even have the audacity to answer my question “What do you know about banking?” With some Savings/Loan model kind of drivel.
Fucking look at me like a tin-foiler when I explain “Bonds 101”.
I may be poor as a motherfuck, but I’ll be damned if I ever let myself get that stupid.
Write your shit, Howard, and post it. Your angle is golden.
Howard/Sonic – I agree with Howard – I just do not think critical mass has been achieved. OWS is but a sideshow at the moment – but perhaps it wll prove to be a spark. Someone mentioned to be successful that the protesters need to amount to 1% of the population. That would be 3 milion people. Now that would get some attention. Politicians and big business would be pooping themselves. It might cause civil war – there would be a lot of anti-OWS folks running around, too.
But I really do not see people becoming active until financial collapse happens. Until then, they will just sit and watch TV.
@sonic
You asked for input on ideas you may have missed.
Prayer is our most powerful weapon. Asking God for absolution, forgiveness, time and wisdom is our best and last hope.
When I first realized just how much danger lies head, I made a habit of visiting my local parish thru-out the week, asking God for more time. Time to wake up more Americans, time to fight the truly evil people who are purposely destroying our nation. Time to turn things around – restoring our Constitutional principals and the rule of law. Time to prepare for the difficult days ahead.
So many of my prayers are being answered. We have been given the gift of time. More Americans are waking up and taking action to turn the tide. We’re learning how to prepare ourselves and protect our families by experiencing floods, severe storms that are erupting across the US.
The crimes crony capitalists commit are no longer hidden. They are out in the open, fully exposed. They are supremely arrogant – and vulnerable. The veil is thinning – their evil is on full display.
Most of us in the Tea Party believe our Founding Fathers were chosen by God to create a Republic that stands on Natural Law and Judeo Christian values. America was great, because Americans were good.
When Americans become good again, America will be great.
Your thoughts?
Llpoh: You’re right. I’ve tried to temper my support with the idea that the TP and OWS will and have been pre-mature and co-opted, but what’s coming down the pike will seperate oil from water. Coming attractions…
Mary: Prayer is an inherantly fickle subject… The main thing, in my opinion, that separates the faithful and the hopeful is praying when you’re happy…. one cannot hope to temper evil with blessings when their blessings are overlooked constantly. An esoteric question with an esoteric caveat.
No offense, Mary, but you are kidding, right?
You said “Most of us in the Tea Party believe our Founding Fathers were chosen by God to create a Republic that stands on Natural Law and Judeo Christian values.” That has to be the most absurd thing I have ever read on this site. That is Divine Right/Manifest Destiny sort of stuff. Plus it sounds like you speak for the entire Tea Party – who are an incredibly diverse group. Tea partiers are somewhat more likely to be Christian than the general population, but attributing the “Chosen by God” stuff to “most Tea Party”ers is drawing a long bow, for sure.
I am glad you found comfort. But this problem is man-made, and I doubt very much God will intervene in what is coming down the tracks at us.
Colma – I am definitely in the camp that nothing will be done until they can no longer kick the can down the road, the free shit stops and the free-shitters go ballistic, and the hard-working Americans suddenly find that there is absolutely nothing left of the American Dream. I do not think pre-emptive protests will make one iota of difference. As long as folks have their TVs, their football games, and thier berr, they are not going to go out and picket. At least, that is what I think.
Individually, Americans are a fine people. Truly fine. I have met no better people anywhere on earth – and I am pretty well travelled.
Unfortunately, they behave as special interest groups when it comes to voting and pressuring politicians to do the right thing. The right thing becomes what is best for me/my town/my state – with no thought of the bigger picture. So long as I have mine, that will do is the attitude. And they do not have the ability to see what this has done to the future.
Older Americans would be appalled if they understood the bill they were leaving the younger folks. They can only see that they paid in SS and are entitled to SS in return. They cannot see the reality. It is the human condition, I am afraid, and it will end in tears.
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History tells of those who pray… of the righteous and upstanding in value.
The dirt in my hand says different.
I cannot travel, llpoh, and I can only gauge friend from foe, in real life…
Your wisdom in this respect is unparalleled.
Trust no one but yourself… if you can figure out what that is.
An existential crisis. Glad I figured that out young.
Awe fuck it, where’s the whiskey?!
llpoh~
as far as ows being or becoming the vanguard of a revolutionary movement, i agree with you that it is a sideshow. for reasons above.
howevah, i think it is important for other reasons. and sparking a revolution/regime change/system reset is not the only measure of success.
i think OWS is a symptom of an important force in america. the tea party was a symptom of the same force, at least initially.
the way i describe this force, is the expression of people beginning to wake up. to slowly arise from their long slumber, and start to think, question, recognize.
and this force, this process, will be unleashed fully after the next financial crash, or larger collapse. by default.
i think/hope, that as this force finds expression prior to whatever the big boom turns out to be, the there may beneficial and constructive potential.
i think/guess that one possibility is even if/when OWS leaves the scene (winter, police crushing, co-opted by the usual suspect lefties/democrats/labor unions/whomever, or just fade away), it could be a seed for something positive after le déluge. similarly, even the co-opted tea party, fed up after a year or two of president rommney/perry/cain/whomever could maybe shed it’s ties to the gop/foxnews/koch brothers, return to their anti-establishment roots, and be the seed for something.
this is why i thing OWS has become a big story in just six weeks. the stupid police overreactions and violence has been a catalyst. but i think the zuccotti park actions are an expression of this awakening discontent. and while the actions have their particular tactics, organization, and influence of certain factions, completely different from the tea party, like i said both are symptoms of the same thing.
i don’t remember right now how quinn felt about the early tea party. i am sure he will refresh my memory tomorrow. but i am not the only early tea partier who is also pro OWS. denninger has voiced this sentiment quite forcefully, and better than i have. if you aren’t sick of hearing about it from us yet.
i’m not saying it is gonna last, or that ows will be the foundation for a better tomorrow. even if it goes away tomorrow, this deeper thing ows reflects and at least partially represents is big. much more than 1% of the population big. as you gotta crawl before you walk, you gotta wake up before you think, or think about crawling, or think to decide to crawl.
so, have i sold you yet? you gonna bring cupcakes for the next march on the mayor’s office?