Today will probably be the last day close to 60 degrees in Philly until next Spring. When will I ever start experiencing the benefits of global warming? Polar vortexes, super storms in the Bering Sea, and snow in Siberia are pissing me off.
Today will probably be the last day close to 60 degrees in Philly until next Spring. When will I ever start experiencing the benefits of global warming? Polar vortexes, super storms in the Bering Sea, and snow in Siberia are pissing me off.
Here in Minneapolis is the crazy fucking cold. Sunday / Monday we had a half-assed ice/snow storm. Today – Wed 11/12 – it was 15 degrees.
I’m waiting for the comet or asteroid.
@Admin – I’m starting to waffle a bit on my stance towards climate change.
The globe does seem to be warming, and the shift in winds seems to be causing two of the main facts detractors point towards: north american cold snaps, and record breaking pack ice at the Antarctic.
Before I get skewered, I don’t think its man made, I just think that we are probably undergoing a climate shift.
Not that surprising really, the Earth has been exceedingly nice to us over the last 20,000 years.
PS: I love this weather, at least right now. This morning I got out of bed and it was 16˚F with 30mph winds out of the NW. Lets you know you are alive!
TPC
I’m not dogmatic about the climate. I’m just an accountant. I’m skeptical about everything. The climate seems too complex to be modeled in a way I would consider valid. A science that can’t accurately predict what will happen 5 days from now certainly can’t be trusted to predict years or decades ahead.
There is no doubt the climate is changing and there ain’t a fucking thing we can do about it.
The Bering Sea Bomb and the Polar Vortex in our Warming World
Roberto Mera, scientist and Kendall Science Fellow
November 12, 2014
A historic storm occurred over Alaska this past weekend as typhoon Nuri merged with an extra tropical system and became a perfect storm. With it also came the chance for more extreme weather for the United States in the form of a small polar vortex event that flooded much of eastern North America with frigid temperatures. But how can we have such cold outbreaks in our warming world?
Polar vortex and global warming
The polar vortex became a household term after last winter’s bitterly cold temperatures over much of the eastern United States. Here in Washington I recall wearing so many layers that it took several minutes to get ready to face the cold. It was deemed the coldest air in twenty years, and, although it broke some records, it wasn’t the coldest outbreak in history. Did it disprove global warming or did global warming actually influence it?
One theory that has been developed during the past decade holds that the reduction in ice cover in the Arctic has caused more extreme undulations in the jet stream, a fast moving current of air high in the atmosphere that separates cold air masses to the north from warmer air masses to the south. Arctic amplification, the rapid warming of the Arctic, lowers temperature gradient between the high latitudes and the tropics, weakening the jet stream and allowing for more “waviness.”
This is a possible factor that may have played a role in January 2014’s cold wave. Larger undulations in the jet stream mean bigger dips and bigger crests. In the case of the polar vortex, a particularly deep trough allowed for very cold air masses to travel much further south than normal.
Polar vortex and the Bering Sea Bomb
The “Bering Sea bomb” was a record-breaking low pressure system that affected parts of western Alaska. It formed from the merging of Typhoon Nuri with an extra-tropical system from Siberia, adding steep temperature gradients, the fuel for storms in the mid latitudes. It reached a lowest pressure of 924mb over the Aleutian islands, beating the previously-recorded 925mb for the North Pacific set in 1977. A powerful system such as the Bering Sea Bomb causes a cascade of effects on the rest of the atmosphere, especially the jet stream. It is akin to throwing a large rock into a pond. The bigger the rock, the bigger the resulting wave.
The effect of the intensity of the Bering Sea Bomb is to cause a strong bend in the jet stream pattern. This trough acts as a slide, of sorts, through which cold air from the arctic is able to reach deep into states to the east of the Rockies. In doing so, a portion of the polar vortex, a semi-permanent low pressure system in the high latitudes, broke off, sliding south with temperatures 20-40 degrees below normal.
Attribution of cold waves and severe snow storms
Does climate change due to human activities influence the occurrence of cold outbreaks or intense snow storms?
Although meanders in the jet stream and associated cold waves might be increasing for parts of the Northern Hemisphere due to arctic amplification, colder-than-average winters and years (such as 2014), are not breaking as many records as previous years since record-keeping began in 1880. For example, new attribution research for parts of Europe also show how the frequency in cold extremes is likely to be lower due to climate change. On the other hand, the risk of seeing more record-breaking warm years is increasing. In 2012, a great fraction of the country saw the warmest average temperature on record and California, along with the rest of the planet, are on pace to have warmest year on record in 2014.
Severe snow storms present a more complex exercise in attribution due to the lengthy list of variables required, but trends show an increasing number of storms and a northward shift in storm track. Further, the increase in atmospheric moisture can play a role in the amount of precipitation experienced.
Still, this does not mean the individual, record-breaking storms are connected to climate change. Attribution studies have shown storms such as last year’s South Dakota blizzard in September do not have the footprint of climate change, and, in fact, could become less likely as the planet warms.
Several inches of snow fell over the upper Midwest and the Great Plains ahead of the polar vortex. Cold air will reach the east coast later in the week, making it feel like January before Thanksgiving for 200 million people.
Can’t wait.
All summer long I dream of being out in the middle of nowhere in the blowing wind and snow up high in the mountains.
Bring it on.
It’s a nice January day today. I don’t mind winter. I just didn’t need an entire extra month of it. I may go skiing this weekend. I’ve resolved to be mostly sober when skiing this year – especially since I’m no good. My opinion of global warming is unchanged: 20% it’s bullshit, 5% there might be something to it and 75% who fucking cares.
On a long enuf timeline, climate is merely weather.
Planet is 4.2 billion years old, so the climate over the period of your lifetime is just the weather you experienced. Over 20, 000 years it might be equivalent to the weekend forecast.
This “polar vortex” shit is part of how the climate catastrophe quacks are flop-sweatily trying to deal with the fact that the very slow, rather steady rebound warming from the close of the Little Ice Age (circa 1850) has been “on hiatus” for about 18 years now.
if anthropogenic (“man-made”) atmospheric carbon dioxide had done – or ever could do – dick by way of greenhouse gas effect to warm the global climate, the accelerating increase in that component (see “Keeling curve”) would see us having gotten warmer over the past two decades.
That hasn’t happened. Therefore the “man-made global climate change” (or “disruption”) contention is bullshit.
It’s a conjecture that never made it to the “hypothesis” level, much less to the point at which you could call it a “theory.”
Bye-bye, you assholes. In fact, run and hide. This winter, if we can get our hands on you, we’d gladly burn you at the stake.
Anything to keep warm while Obozo does his best to ensure that our “electricity rates will necessarily skyrocket.”
58 degrees now in Noo Joisey.
I’m gonna go outside and thoroughly clean the grill.
I’m soo pissed. I had a new Pictorial Essay more than halfway done, saved it, and some weird shit happened after I clicked “save” … and it WIPED out my entire post. Fucken shit. I was able to restore a previous version … still lost half my work. Fucken shit. I’ll try it again this weekend.
Low thirties and little to no snow on the ground in Northern Alaska with no colder weather or snow in site for the upcoming two weeks. We could use a Polar Vortex right now.
Stuck,
Was the whoops on the new computer?? Enjoy your grill cleaning.
It finally got cold-ish here. Fourteen above is the coldest so far. I love it but I’m looking forward to negative numbers and ass deep snow myself. I even got my snow shovels waxed up in anticipation! I might try skiing again but the ankle still feels a bit week for that.