“Imagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:
- Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
- Social distress, with violence fueled by class, race, nativism, or religion and abetted by armed gangs, underground militias, and mercenaries hired by walled communities
- Political distress, with institutional collapse, open tax revolts, one-party hegemony, major constitutional change, secessionism, authoritarianism, and altered national borders
- Military distress, with war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction”
The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997
When you read pertinent passages from Strauss & Howe’s prophetic assessment of history from a generational perspective, eighteen years after its publication and seven years into the Crisis they forecasted with uncanny accuracy, you find yourself shaking your head and appreciating their visionary generational appraisal of antiquity. Those who scorn The Fourth Turning either haven’t read it, are ignorant of the cyclical nature of history, blindly believe in never ending human progress, or their salary is dependent upon not acknowledging the truth. A year consists of four seasons – Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter. A long human life of 80 years consists of four phases – childhood, young adulthood, mid-life, and old age. Human beings tend to associate themselves with the cohort born within the roughly 20 year period that makes up one phase of life.
Members of a generation share an age location in history, tend to share some common beliefs and behaviors, including basic attitudes about risk taking, culture and values, civic engagement, family life, and tend to have a sense of common perceived membership in that generation. The generational attitudes, moods, leaders, and events that occur during recurring 80 year cycles drive the pathway of history. Strauss & Howe have been able to document the Turnings of Anglo-American history back to 1435. Like the seasons in a year, there have been cyclical turnings every twenty years or so for centuries. They can be described as High (Spring), Awakening (Summer), Unraveling (Fall), Crisis (Winter). Each turning is a reflection of generational interactions, moods, and attitudes. We are now seven years into a Crisis that will likely not climax until the late 2020’s.
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The beginning of the new year has seen the usual avalanche of 2015 forecasts from mainstream media pundits, Wall Street gurus, Ivy League economists, journalists and bloggers. Most are paid to produce forecasts which promote their employer’s agenda; convince readers to buy their investment products, newsletters, or service; propagandize the government storyline; or validate their Ivy League academic theories. Those in the employ of the Deep State always produce forecasts of economic growth, positive developments, and never ending progress. They’ve never seen a recession coming, the stock market declining, or war looming. None of these people saw the 2008 Financial Crisis coming. They all believe 2015 will be a great year. They are narrow minded linear thinkers who are willfully ignorant of history or purposefully peddling propaganda for a paycheck.
Making annual forecasts in the midst of a 20 year Fourth Turning Crisis is rather pointless. Predicting improvement or progress in the midst of a Crisis is nothing but a futile exercise in mental masturbation. Fourth Turnings, like a protracted, brutal, frigid, gloomy, stormy winter of discontent, may have an occasional let up in intensity, but will rapidly revert back to turbulence, danger, and volatility. When I wrote Fourth Turning Accelerating in June of last year, I made the case that core elements of this Crisis – debt, civic decay, and global disorder – were combining to provide an impetus to the next dire phase of this relentless blizzard of pain, suffering, chaos and war.
“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance.
Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Putting forecasting into perspective during Fourth Turnings is easy when you have a grasp on history. Imagine there were pundits pontificating on CNBC or CNN in 1936, the seventh year of the Great Depression Crisis or 1780, the seventh year of the American Revolution Crisis. Most historians refer to the Great Depression as the period from the Great Crash of 1929 until our entry into World War II in 1941. Annual forecasts of improvement would be meaningless to people living through this brutal period in our history.
If Jim Cramer was assessing the period from 1934 through 1936 on his daily radio show, he would have been gushing about GDP growth of 10.8%, 8.9% and 12.9%. He would have been effusive about the 300% surge in the Dow Jones Index from the 1933 low to the 1936 high. CNN would be doing special reports about the tremendous success of New Deal programs, as Federal spending and handouts accounted for the entire surge in GDP. But, in reality the average American continued to struggle to survive, as unemployment ranged between 17% and 22% during this time and only the rich owned stocks. Another 10 years of hardship, war, and death on a grand scale awaited them. Perspective and context are essential when attempting to assess periods in history. You get no context from the entertainers passing for journalists in today’s world.
The beginning of 1780 saw Washington and his troops surviving the harshest winter of the 18th Century in Morristown, NJ as the 5th year of war still left the outcome highly in doubt. CNN would have blamed the polar vortex for the temporary lull in patriot fortunes. Defeats in battles against the British in South Carolina and the uncovering of Benedict Arnold’s plot to surrender West Point to the British would have been spun as minor setbacks. Cornwallis’ surrender at Yorktown was almost two years away. The Articles of Confederation hadn’t yet been signed and the U.S. Constitution wouldn’t be signed until 1787. The Crisis wouldn’t end for another fourteen years, in 1794.
Fourth Turnings have their own rhythm and pace. The reactions to events and mood changes of generational cohorts interact to provide the dynamic that drives Fourth Turnings. The specific events are not foreseeable but human weaknesses, faults, flaws, failings, strengths, intellect, and emotions are consistent across the ages. Human nature does not change, therefore it is predictable. Those who wish for this Fourth Turning to accelerate and get to the climax sooner may want to rethink their desire. The Civil War Crisis was accelerated because all parties were intransigent and unwilling to compromise or pause. The result was 700,000 Americans killed in four years, representing 5% of the entire male population. This Fourth Turning could be accelerated with the push of a button and millions killed in an instant. I don’t think anyone wants that kind of climax. We are entering a banquet of consequences where our choices will make a difference.
“A Fourth Turning harnesses the seasons of life to bring about a renewal in the seasons of time. In so doing, it provides passage through the great discontinuities of history and closes the full circle of the saeculum. The Fourth Turning is when the Spirit of America reappears, rousing courage and fortitude from the people. History is seasonal, but its outcomes are not foreordained. Much will depend on how tall we stand in the trials to come.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
The Shadow of Crisis
“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Just as you can’t turn the clock back to the glorious warm days of Summer or the delightfully pleasant cool days of Fall, the dark, foreboding, bitter days of Winter will bring forth raging blizzards, dangerous sub-zero temperatures, and vicious gale force winds. And there is no way to avoid, sidestep, or escape the trials and tribulations which will sweep away the existing social order and replace it with something better or possibly far worse. There are no guarantees this Crisis will resolve itself in a positive manner. The spark that catalyzed the Crisis mood in 2008 was the global financial implosion caused by Wall Street bankers committing the greatest control fraud in world history, corrupt captured politicians’ spineless failure to address the nation’s spending and debt problems, and the Federal Reserve creating a housing and stock bubble through their loose monetary policies and complete failure to regulate the Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks.
The inability of the linear thinking ruling class to acknowledge the seriousness of our current circumstances and the implications of the era of depression and violence the country is about to experience can be witnessed on a daily basis by listening to mainstream media talking heads or politicians of all stripes who bloviate about economic improvement and progress just ahead. Could there be a better example of myopia, delusion and willful ignorance than the theme and opening line of Obama’s State of the Union speech:
“THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS PASSED”
Do Obama and his advisors actually believe this Crisis is over? Or is he purposely misleading the American people about the seriousness of our circumstances because he has been instructed to do so by the men who really pull the levers of this country – Wall Street bankers, shadowy billionaires, and the military industrial complex. If the Crisis has passed, why has the 30 year bond yield fallen to an all-time low? Why does the Fed maintain an emergency stance by continuing to keep interest rates at 0% if the economy is really growing at over 4%, unemployment has really fallen from 10% to 5.7%, corporate profits are at all-time highs, and the stock market has risen by 200% to record highs?
In Part Two of this article I’ll prove the shadow of crisis has not passed, and the core elements of Crisis – debt, civic decay, and global disorder – get worse by the hour.
This is part one of a four part article.
I’ll be posting one part per day this week.
I agree with the macro idea of the turning. Where I become hesitant is when we start naming dates/years, etc. This was and is the mistake of of the Glenn Becks, Jim Kunstler, and others who in general are good at describing the problem but then they take it one step too far and say when things are going to happen and as we all know the have been spectacularly wrong. My belief is that the turning will take unexpected detours and paths and we may be well into it and not even know it until it has happened. We are living in one weird and surreal time.
Admin – this is the stuff that brought me to this site, and it is why I keep hanging around. Everything else is fluff. You are doing something good.
But the posters here need to pitch in. We need more commentary about what is really happening in the world, and what we both individually and en masse can do to prepare for what comes. There are many here that can add to the commentary and debate.
Re the above, you have very clearly laid out the case for the cyclical nature of things, and it is a tremendous bit of writing. I am not a true believer in the timings, but I am beginning to understand the basic pattern.
One thing I see as different this time from previous is that there are better channels of communication, at least for the moment. The internet in particular, until and if it is closed down, offers a means of communication. In 1920, there were very few channels indeed.
Vastly more folks, as a percentage, today have been brainwashed than say in 1920. Those folks were not so exposed to the array of media that has been unleashed upon today’s populous. A great many back then were serfs, working to survive day to day. They would have thought little about their condition, I suspect, as there were no other options, and they were very busy indeed trying to survive.
Today, the serfs have allowed themselves to be convinced they are not serfs. Bread and circuses is the order of the day. They are in effect a cargo cult of sorts – they look up in awe as the manna from heaven falls down upon them, increasingly convinced that it is their birthright, and that God and country will take care of them. They do not understand the force that is bearing down upon them. and unlike those in the 1920’s, a very large percentage do not have the know-how or the life skills to allow them to survive, much less thrive, in an economic catastrophe.
And I see that as perhaps the biggest threat. How will perhaps hundreds of millions of Americans survive when the free stuff stops flowing in, when the productive can no longer keep feeding them. The productive very well may have trouble feeding themselves. Perhaps 250 million Americans really do not understand, or are incapable of, the activities that may be required to survive.
My grandfather shovelled coal for a dime a day in the depression, going house to house. My father drove a tractor twelve hours a night at the age of 12 in order to survive. He was on his own, by and large, from the age of 9. Who today can do such things? Perhaps Hardscrabble’s family. Perhaps Billy’s. but there will be tens and hundreds of millions that will fall hard when the day comes. The age of entitlement will end, and people will not have the skills, the reasoning, the physical capacity, or the resources to come out of the crisis unscathed.
Thanks again for this extraordinary piece.
And I can but encourage TBPers to get on board and lift these articles by adding their thoughts and experiences.
The possibility of the coming crisis – it need not be a certainty – is why I forever argue re the need for unfettered access to guns. Over and over I hear from anti-gun folks that these things cannot happen here. That the deaths caused by guns each year is reason they should be eliminated from society.
I am appalled by the number of gun deaths in the US each year – around 30,000 by memory. It is shocking and abhorrent.
But if people cannot protect themselves from tyranny in the darkest of moments, the toll could be tens of millions. Perhaps more. The only protection the people have from tyrants is to be armed.
It is both necessary and prudent. Yes the 30,000 per year needs to be reduced. I recommend actual policing to do that (not that that will occur), rather than stripping away the people’s only defense should a crisis befall.
I know I am speaking to the choir, but it deserves retelling every so often.
I think every one who submits articles should first seek Llpoh’s approval. We shouldn’t offend him with fluff pieces. He might get angry.
Hey Stuck – fuck you, asshole.
Looking forward every day this week. Thanks
Southern California Edison is replacing their American IT staff with H1B visa ‘guest workers’ from India. The to-be-fired people are, of course, being required to train their replacements.
I’d say these people are going to experience economic and social distress, at a minimum.
Just what we need, more justifiably pissed-off people – with the skills and insider knowledge to take down the western power grid. I really do wonder just how long it will be before the masses decide that pulling executives/politicians/etc. out of their homes at 3AM and stringing them up is a good idea. All it needs is a spark.
Anon – requiring someone to train their replacement is one of the lowest things I have ever seen. It happens. Managers should refuse to be involved. It is reprehensible, and morally and ethically bankrupt. But it is not surprising. Very few folks actually have any strength of character.
The employees cave in to it because their severance packages rely on it. Now would be a good time to unionize and go on strike. That is some fucked up bullshit.
I read the fourth turning before coming to TBP. I believe every word written in the book and altered my life accordingly. Matter of fact I’ve read the book three times and plan on reading it again soon. Admin is correct, the only way you can disagree with the book is to never have read it.
Every fourth turning is bigger than the last and loss of life exceeds the previous crisis. I predict a major war with the United States homeland being hit, loss of life will be horrendous.
How many people do you know who could actually feed themselves when the grocery store shelves are empty? When I say the homeland gets hit, I am not necessarily saying it will be a nuke, or a foreign invasion, it could be a cyber attack that knocks out the banks. That’s all it will take for 300 million hungry people to start killing each other and destroy our on time delivery system. For example, if hungry mobs attack a commercial chicken houses and destroy them, how long would it be before that production would come back online? Answer is –> It may take years. Our whole system is built on law and order being in place, you rip that thin veil, even for a week or two, the damage will take years to rebuild.
I choose to be ready, any plan is better than no plan. Playing the roll of a victim is something I will never do.
Fine Work Admin. Thank You!
I saw where Alan Greenspan is predicting a political crisis in our near future.He knows his policies at the federal reserve will be one of the reasons we have a crisis.
Good job admin,looking forward to reading the other parts.
Jim, great work, as usual. Llpoh, this is why I’m such a fan of the greek commies. I see 2 guys willing to stand up and say, no more. That could get contagious in europe real fast. Those parties are rising up real fast, right and left, doesn’t matter. Podemus, UKIP, national front, 5 star, they’re coming. They may not have guns over there, but they can force the issue politically much faster.
I can’t imagine how this turning is going to last ten more years before the climax. Despite the fact that generational theory holds, has the pervasive speedy technology running our world shortened the length of the turning itself? Aren’t we all collectively holding our breath hoping to make it through just the next week with the world we know remaining intact?
I think the primary feature of the post-turning environment will be a vastly reduced population on the earth. And I’m not nearly as willing as S&H to speculate that the Spirit of America will reappear. I suspect that what little is left of it will be figuratively and literally tortured and killed before it can even get the Gadsen flags unfurled.
“Those who wish for this Fourth Turning to accelerate and get to the climax sooner may want to rethink their desire. The Civil War Crisis was accelerated because all parties were intransigent and unwilling to compromise or pause.”
Shedding a little light from the Millennial demographic, speak for Gen Xers, I can’t wait for the motha fucker to burn. Since I was a teenager I have felt like my generation’s motto should be “Hurry up and wait”. Tired of this shit. It is going to collapse anyway. The past 6 years has been mind numbing boredom for me. I get to be apart of the part-time economy attempting to get ahead in a time of inflation when most of my generation can’t afford their rent even with roommates. Good riddance to the status quo and I will spend the fourth turning bullshit my way out like Mark Twain.
I tend to think it won’t be quite so explosive. We could end up deflating into a much more normal existence, and your average working person will probably do fine. The FSA, that’s a whole nother story. I spent a lot of time online, reading census data, looking for survivable demographics. The cities are cesspools. The FSA will consume each other first. Get ready to work, and I don’t mean data entry. Get in shape. Learn to competently use a gun. Decide who and what are important to you.
Because it will happen in europe first, and be kind of strung out, we’ll get a fair amount of warning. We, as a country have a lot of resources that can turn on a dime and re-prioritize lots and lots of economic activity. We see it down here when hurricanes threaten. Bad time for the weak and government dependent. It’s coming though, however you visualize it.
Clammy, I feel your pain, it’s a bitch. I make good money, but I’am working 60 hours a week to do it. And the money doesn’t go very far. I don’t now how people with 10 or 15 dollar an hour jobs make it. It would be hell to know you had the gas pedal shoved to the floor and where going no where.
Were going no where
Sensetti- I think the government and the elite already consider the youth to be the enemy. All it takes is for our generational philosophy to not support debt and spending.
Just a few years ago I think we all expected another collapse, a coup, an attack. Something along those lines. While difficult and painful, we expected a spark that would finally galvanize the population, that would expose corruption and act as the impetus toward a reorganization of failing systems that is simply not possible under ordinary conditions. Perhaps then there would be a chance to move forward.
As the years pass, it’s getting harder and harder to envision this happening. What we’re seeing instead is much worse. A turning that is a slow grind into tyranny and despair. Like the frog in the boiling pot, the controlled and calculated nature of the decline plays right into the reactionary nature of man. It is hard to wrap your head around just how quickly and how intensely the screws are being put to old guard in America, what used to be normal, basically decent people. I could write an encyclopedia on the forces that have been ramped up since the flash point in 2008. Economic stagnation, foreign invasion, mind-numbing technology, the elevation of authority to omnipotent overlords, the corruption of any and all institutions, and the relentless onslaught of propaganda, to name just a few. How do you fight a monster with this many heads?
No one is willing to take a stand anymore. The nation whose legacy includes dumping tea into the harbour and firing on Fort Sumter now happily trains its foreign replacements, removes its shoes at airports and buys its worthless health insurance when told to do so. The subservient attitude has permeated the culture. A wild continent where a man was once entirely responsible for his own defense and fortune has been reduced to a bunch of tattlers, whiners, and thieves.
I see calls for more contributions to the articles. I sometimes wonder if banging my head against a brick wall would accomplish more. Truth is only found on a few corners of the internet, a few websites and lo-fi radio networks and podcasts. Even most of the history based websites are run by institutional academics who spend most of their time highlighting the flaws of past heroic figures and acting as apologists for the socialist undercurrents of the past. Unfortunately I think we’ve reached peak penetration for the truth. Just about everyone who wants to know, knows by now. The vast majority have made their choice to remain willfully ignorant. They are going to played like a cheap fiddle over the coming years. Due to their sheer numbers it looks like the rest of us will be along for the ride.
Winter is here and a storm is on the horizon.
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+100 admin.
While Strauss and Howe may lay the ground prophecy on how the crisis will be created, this how-to manual ( a lot of common sense) l may help some here develop a defense plan and better prepare to survive a TEOTWAWKI event,if indeed that does transpire. .Also, I think Billy gave it three thumbs up.
” The Ultimate ‘A to Z’ Survival Book. A primer for the untrained and knowledge for the trained in survival.
How to organize your community and neighbors into a Neighborhood Protection Plan by being prepared with Life Critical Necessities and defending yourselves by using military tactics and shooting techniques during a disaster or civil unrest.”
http://www.afailureofcivility.com/.
That said, I love to read of libertarian philosophy of non-aggression and contractual voluntarism as a replacement for aggressive police state action where might is always right, but I harbor no illusions.It ain’t going to happen because:
1) MPAI ( most people are idiots) and thus demand their bread and circus at any price
2) The Chosenites are not going to walk away from the throne , sans a bloody brawl and because of #I , there are not enough libertarian minded people to discharged # 2 from their power base of a mass of friggin’ morons.
The best bet any of us of surviving a Fourth turning as predicted by S&H is tribe up , but good luck with that (see#1)
He that lives upon hope will die fasting. ~ Benjamin Franklin
Last night, right before bed I was thinking about how long it would be before I’d see another new piece from Admin. I too wound up here because of the writing that Jim throws like pearls before swine every so often, but I also know that burnout happens and eentually everyone says everything they have to say. I’m glad you’re not done. These are profoundly important things to be writing about- not so much for the regulars who grok what’s going down, but for the ones who are just starting to get it.
I was very close to my paternal grandmother and spent the better part of my life hanging on to her every word. She was part of the generation that remembered things in vivid detail and how most of those things she recalled were of a nation enduring long periods of suffering and privation. She was a young girl when the Spanish flu swept through, a teenager and young adult during the depression, and a young mother when she lost her only brother in North Africa to Rommel’s tanks. Most of the stories were about family, about what they did rather than what they had- or more specifically what they didn’t- and everything was centered around food. I don’t ever remember her telling me a story where there wasn’t a mention of someone’s deviled eggs or how happy she was to get a tangerine in her Christmas stocking, or having her uncle come home with a string of rabbits for them to stew. My grandparents lived a life of extreme modesty in a small home in a town where their family had lived since the Dutch first claimed it. Their dreams were humble in the extreme, of a raising honorable and healthy children- which they did- and of having enough to eat. The only regret my grandfather ever expressed to me was that he never got a chance to travel around America, so over the years when I was on the road I carried a small framed photograph of my grandparents that I would pose along the banks of the Mississippi, or the rim of the Grand Canyon, or at the edge of a field of sunflowers in Kansas and then photograph it for them to see later, taking them on tour by proxy. Their life was forged in a fourth turning and they came through it as two of the most stable, decent, dependable and positive human beings I have ever had the good fortune to meet, never mind be related to. Their lessons shaped my way of thinking even though I never realized it until they were gone.
Our family has a motto-
“Only The Flexible Survive”
I believe that to be the truth no matter where we are in history.
Thanks Jim, great piece, look forward to the rest.
“Every fourth turning is bigger than the last and loss of life exceeds the previous crisis.”
—– Sensetti
Does it HAVE to be that way? Is it cast in stone? Are we forever doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past, no matter what?
What if, for example, the next POTUS we elect understands The Fourth Turning, and takes action to avert it … or at least diminish the consequences?
Disclaimer: I have not read the book.
Another great article from our hero. I’d like to add a more meaningful comment or two as llpoh suggests but I’m so burnt out on doom porn that I can see straight. The next step in my apprenticeship at work is beginning so I’m largely focused on that. I’ve mentioned before that my boss is the Jimi Hendrix or Stephen Hawking of his craft………literally the undisputed best in the world and it is a real privilege to be under his wing. For every one thing he teaches it seems like there are a hundred more to learn and I’ve got to get there before he retires.
Check out the latest Mark Dice “Petition for Illiteracy” video. http://www.infowars.com/americans-sign-petition-to-support-obama-illiteracy-program/
You know how Democans and Replublicrats are really best of friends behind closed doors? I starting to believe the same basic thing basically applies to world leaders and that behind closed doors they all get along like peas and carrots but they are all captured (many willingly) by our collective owners and dutifully play the roles they are given. It’s all fucked up and bullshit. It could all be fixed rather easily but too many sheople live under the illusion that our “leaders” actually matter. The whole shootin’ match is just too fuckin’ depressing to think about. FUCKING GREEDY COCKSUCKERS!
HSF said:
““Only The Flexible Survive””
The FSA and other assorted sheople have the same motto but it applies to how many positions they can bend you into while they ass rape you.
Yours probably means something different.
Admin.,
Thank you for the refresher, it brought out alot of good responses.
” …. speaking for Gen Xers, I can’t wait for the motha fucker to burn.” ———- Stephanie
YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU ARE HOPING FOR.
Not shouting at you …. caps for emphasis only.
People in America who are my age (60) have parents / grandparents who lived through the Great Depression. My European parents lived through several Holocausts; the Jewish one, the Russian one, the German one. You’re too young to have any idea of their actual suffering.
Llpoh talks about his grandfather shoveling coal for TEN CENTS …. per DAY! How far do you think that thin dime went? What he didn’t say was how often he and his family went hungry … daily. I imagine having shoes without holes in them was a luxury. How many of his loved ones died before their time? Several, would be my guess.
If you complain now (and rightfully so) about your job prospects, or lack thereof, or student debt, or or not having enough money to repair your car ……….. how do you think you will fare when the “motha fucker burns”? Bad as things are now, you have available ample social safety nets — whether or not you use them. When the motha fucker burns, those will be gone. Then what? Are YOU ready to shovel coal for a dime a day?
Not picking on you. Hey, I say the same thing often enough … that I wish all this shit will just fucking end already. But, I’ll let you in on a little secret … I don’t REALLY mean it. I know how god fucking awful it will be. Not necessarily from first hand experience, as I have had a cushy life, overall. But, as mentioned, I have parents who went through that shit. I’ve been fortunate enough (or, unfortunate) to see 3rd world poverty first hand. It’s horribly horrendous. Yet, even that will look like a walk-in-the-park when the real shit-storm hits our shore.
You may want to see the motha fucker burn down now. But, when it does burn, you’ll be longing for days gone by, days like today. I’m pretty sure about that.
My only comment is that I would like to know why the second thing I saw when I brought up this webpage is “20 Things All Girls Want to Try in Bed…”
Best thing I have ever read from you Jim. And that, is no small feat. Reason, objectivity and reality are not quite in favor these days, but some of us come here, to dabble in the Black Arts.
Another great essay – thanks.
I sometimes wonder about cycles inside of bigger cycles inside of even greater cycles and whether or not our rulers have been aware of them all along.
I think it has to be some physical event. Huge earthquake, volcano (bigger that Krakatoaj), meteor strike.
I say this because folks seem so complacent, willing to be lied to and manipulated. When the cataclysmic event happens – lies from our government will no longer work to control the situation.
The US has too many people. Cities like NY, Phil, Chicago, Miami, LA are all shit holes that really need to be cleaned out. These cities cannot exist without massive inputs of money. When money doesn’t matter – there will be chaos.
Perhaps when people have to get their ‘ass in gear’ – cell phones, iCrap, endless entertainment, there will be a return to a more simple, sane, sustainable life.
Sorry Anne,
I put that ad there 🙂
Another good writing, Jim, thanks for what you do , John
Hardscrabble Farmer says: Our family has a motto- “Only The Flexible Survive”
I have little different motto- “mobility is the key to survival” which is flexibility.
I see these preppers on TV that live in a residential neighborhood on the East Coast, they stock their basement wall to wall with food, they buy AR-15’s, teach mom and kids to pull the trigger and think they’ve done something, Dumbassery in motion right there. A roving gang of fathers, trying to feed hungry children, will simply surrounded the house and demand food. When the siege preppers yell “go away we are armed” the gang takes a couple gallons of gas and burns the house down. Unless the siege preppers AR’s can kill flames, the whole prepper family is dead within moments and the roving gang is digging through the ashes looking for scraps.
From my research there are very few preppers who are actually prepared to survive no matter what happens. Normalcy bias eats their brains alive.
As for me? Well…. find me if you can. You better have a damn good pair of hiking boots is all I have to say.
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This time the cycle is different! For the last 80 years we have pumped enought CO2 to trigger runaway methane release in the Arctic. That means an exponential function. That means the amout of released methane is doubling at an alarming rate. Methane is ~100-300 times a more potent greehouse gas than CO2.
Experts are saying it is too late to reverse this process which would end food production by 2030.
Arctic Methane Emergency Group says it is mostly over…
http://ameg.me/
Dr. Rignot, NASA Anarctic reasearcher, says it is over…
The details for those want to dig deeper…
pix.cs.olemiss.edu/climate.html
Baby boomer professor you fucking piece of shit. Go post your climate change bullshit somewhere else.
I would almost vote for mass extinction if the liberal “sacks of shit” Dimocrats would volunteer to go first.
“The conflict between the East and West was designed to scare the people of the world into accepting a convergence of these two monopoly systems of authoritarian power. The end result was to be a new Imperial Order and a New World Empire run by an elite self-perpetuating oligarchies from the leading nations of the earth.”
Carroll Quigley, Tragedy and Hope, p. 860
I meant that it seems wildly inappropriate to be confronted by this stuff before I even get to read the article I was seeking. Talk about bread and circuses!
The world goes by itself. Human history is cyclical and patterned in a fractal, and “leaders” are chosen by the times, they don’t change much beyond the details.
Humanity lives in the shadow of life-destroying technology and sooner or later this will be our undoing.
@Sensetti
Rest in ignorance my friend…
Anne, the ads are geared toward your personal browsing habits. Spend a lot of time at the Cosmopolitan site do you?
@ Anne.Try a different browser, especially if your still using IE.
FWIW, my first choice. http://www.palemoon.org/
“Gentlemen may cry, peace, peace — but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! — I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!”
Patrick Henry
“You may want to see the motha fucker burn down now. But, when it does burn, you’ll be longing for days gone by, days like today. I’m pretty sure about that.”
Stucky, a correction is coming anyways. We all would have been better off going through a short depression 6 years ago. Now the situation is a lot worse and so will be the carnage. Every year it is postponed the worse off we will be.
Seeing as your family is from Austria you should know this. What if the Treaty of Versailles was never signed? What if the German Revolution had continued after WW1? What if the reparations and the humiliation against Germany hadn’t occurred? What if the the hyperinflation had never happened? What if the Wiemar Republic hadn’t collapsed? And so on…
The crisis is on the horizon but it won’t happen immediately. All wars and Revolutions are funded and nobody is funding anything these days.
World War II was funded with war bonds. US debt as a % of GDP reached its all-time high.
The psychopaths running the world will borrow to kill.
Also, I should note- Who was carrying out the carnage in Germany (and throughout Europe) during WW2? It was the Nomad Generation giving the orders and it was the Hero Generation carrying out those orders. Think about that awhile…
Stephanie raises an interesting point.
How will the wars be paid for?
I anticipate a Balkanization of every society and people will spoil for a fight in every direction.
@Baby boomer professor: Please, please, not more shit. This climate worry is an attempt by liberals to hijack the worlds population, and gaining control of our lives. Maybe the Metrosexual fuckers in Europe believe it, and they will go along with it.
You liberals just don’t stop: 1970’s global cooling, 2000’s global warming, 2014 – falsified global warming data, now methane. FUCK YOU!
@Clams, I agree with Stucky , you better get down on your knees and pray, this “motha’ “don’t burn to the ground in your lifetime. You don’t know what you ask.
If the wheel goes down., you’ll not like your new existence .You’ll either soon end up dead or become someones eases property to be disposed of as seen fit. Be careful what you wish for.
DC Sunset- For a war from a foreign aggressor to occur on U.S. soil it would have to be paid for by the aggressor. That ain’t cheap considering the U.S. is well protected by being bordered by to freaking oceans. Ever notice how Japan attacked us on our home soil in 1941 but never carried out another attack afterward? Japan would never have been capable of carrying out a full war on U.S. soil. It is expensive to go to war with us.
A coming war in the U.S. would be on our soil funded by one of our own. During the French Reign of Terror it was the aristocracy funding the violence. They started by first paying to get rid of the royal family then they paid to get rid of each other. For there to be a revolution to occur in the U.S. it would be bought and paid for by the George Soros type. And I am pointing him out considering he funded Occupy Wall Street and Ferguson.
Witness deagel.com projection US population in 2025: 69 million.