CONSUMER DROWNING SORROWS AT THE BAR

Month after month I watch as the MSM mouthpieces try to spin declining consumer spending in a positive light. They are practically out of excuses. They are befuddled, because month after month they report “awesome” job gains and can’t understand why all these gainfully employed Americans aren’t buying shit they don’t need like they used to. These faux journalists, spouting propaganda for their ruling class bosses, are willfully ignorant of the fact the job gains are in low paying part-time jobs and the fact that Obamacare and record high rents are sapping any discretionary income households would use to buy stuff.

Despite the propaganda from the media and happy talk from the Liar-in-Chief, the country is currently in a recession and the Fed has no ammo to fake another recovery. We are going down and going down hard. When 70% of your economy is based on Americans buying shit they don’t need from China on credit cards, a dramatic slowdown in consumer spending equals recession. When sales actually fall from November to December during the holiday season, you are in recession. We’ve arrived.

The December report was a disaster and portends horrible retailer results coming down the road. More ghost malls coming to your neighborhood. The annual results were pitiful, with the more recent months even more dreadful. So after adding 10 million jobs, according to Obama, spending declines? They must be great jobs.

I think the results are even worse than portrayed in the results presented by the Census Bureau. Retail sales grew by only 2.2% in 2015 versus 2014. That is significantly less than the real inflation being experienced by real people, so on an inflation adjusted basis they fell. Even the 2.2% increase is artificially pumped up by the Fed induced auto debt fueled boom in car sales (or long-term rentals in reality). The 7 year 0% auto loans, subprime auto loans to deadbeats, and record levels of auto leases have created fake demand that will end in tears when the defaults skyrocket. If you remove these fake sales, then total retail sales are up a pitiful 0.9% over 2014.

When you realize that two of the few strong sales categories were autos (7.5%) and furniture stores (5.8%), you can put your thinking cap on and realize the 7 year 0% financing scam is solely responsible for these sales. Reducing credit score criteria and extending loan terms always works. Right? The other relatively strong area was internet sales (6.3%). Amazon and the rest of the on-line retail segment continues to destroy the bricks and mortar retailers, but even these sales are slowing. They were up a weak 0.3% from November. Before the states started taxing internet sales and it was still a newer concept, the annual growth rates were 15% to 20%, so the 6.3% growth rate is rather unimpressive.

And this leads me to the strongest spending segment – restaurants/bars. Sales were up 8.1% over 2014 and continued strong in December. I know this is true firsthand as my wife is a waitress at a restaurant/sports bar and business was booming in December and continues to be good in January. My thesis for this strong spending is that people are so miserable about the economy in general and the direction of the country (reflected in Trump’s support), they have decided to drink and eat, for tomorrow we die. Dining out or getting loaded at a bar takes your mind off your troubles for a few hours. It’s not a huge expenditure and you just put it on your credit card and worry about it later.

When the mass layoffs start hitting in 2016, even this category of spending will contract. If you think the 2015 consumer spending numbers were atrocious, you haven’t seen anything yet.

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Thinker
Thinker
January 15, 2016 10:37 am

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Bea Lever
Bea Lever
January 15, 2016 11:02 am

GE has sold it’s appliance business to the Chinese firm Haier for 5.4 Billion.

Don’t buy GE anything ….the shitey bastard are selling us out and we in turn should NEVER BUY any product with the name GE or HAIER on it. Rat bastards.

Lysander
Lysander
January 15, 2016 11:04 am

@ Admin…..Yours as well. It could be just me, but I was having a helluva time getting anything to work here up until 30 minutes ago.

Lysander
Lysander
January 15, 2016 11:10 am

@ Bea Lever….and GE is ditching CT to move their world HQ to Boston. When this was announced, the asshole Gov. of CT Malloy said “You win some and you lose some”, to insure to all taxpayer that he doesn’t give a shit about anything but kissing the ass of incoming musloids and our in house pet niggers and spics.

I can’t blame GE for getting out of this state because CT has to be the most hostile to businesses state in the country. However, I hate GE for a number of other reasons including that other dick move.

bb
bb
January 15, 2016 11:30 am

All you pissing and moaning about how bad things are but wake up my little children and smell the roses. Diesel fuel / gasoline at its lowest in a decade or more. Silver and gold at it lowest in years . Even rual farm land is at bargain basement prices in some areas of the country. Plenty of deals to be had.

Admin and crew ,you all need to go have a few drinks at the local watering hole. Ease your minds awayfrom all the bad news. I would buy but …..some of got to work and pay taxes to feed all the bastards babies.

Gator
Gator
January 15, 2016 11:33 am

@ Admin, ZH is back up now. I thought it was my internet, its pretty slow. And this is another good one. The next couple months should be interesting, to say the least. As you said, this only helps trump. I hope flash and others are happy when they get their strong man.

Aheinousanus
Aheinousanus
January 15, 2016 11:43 am

I quit buying anything from GE when their CEO was leading the Obama parade in 2008.
I boycott anything associated with Buffet for the same reason. Switched my auto insurance from Geico and dropped my Sees chocolates habit.

Specie
Specie
January 15, 2016 12:02 pm

if 95% of the stores to be closed are within 10 miles of another wal-mart, why were they ever opened in the first place?

flash
flash
January 15, 2016 12:10 pm

Gator -I hope flash and others are happy when they get their strong man.
Have you not read any comment I have made on the subject of Trump’s candidacy.
I never said I trust Trump, in fact I’ve said the opposite,but I support him for one reason. He is the murder weapon that will take out the backstabbing Chamber of Commerce GOP…and not a minute to soon.

Trump is saying all the right things; control the borders; severely limit immigration;renegotiate lop sided international trade agreements and repeal Federal gun laws, all which have gotten the conservative base fired up and rightly so. That said, this can go one of two ways, albeit with the same results, the Republican establishment party is dead.
If Trump keeps his campaign promises (he’d be the first), then the global corporatist owned Republican Party will revolt and move to the left side of the aisle, where they really belong anyway or if Trump pulls a big fucking head fake, like all politicos are wont to do, the the base will revolt and form a third party, which is how the Republican Party began in the first place.
Either way works for me. Two parties of leftwing globalist kowtowing cucks is two to many, but in order for this nation to be restored as the independent bastion of the free world, one of these Nation fucking parties of corporate puppets has got to go, else the history of this Republic is destined to come to a bitter and defeated close. …do you understand now?

goofyfoot
goofyfoot
January 15, 2016 12:25 pm

Drinking at a bar?? Here n the Hedge Fund Ghetto, the only pub we have charges 6$ for a pint of pig swill Coors/Bud, 4$ a bottle. Anchor Steam or a nice Sammy is 8-10$ a pint. The damn bankers in town have even ruined the local watering hole. I pick up a six pack of Sammy’s or Sierra Nevada at the liquor store in town for $9, turn on the Cerwin Vega’s in the garage and swig away.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr
January 15, 2016 12:31 pm

Sameo sameo as 1929. First the farmers were broke, then the town merchants, then the town banks, then the big companies, then the big banks (wait until corporations can’t pay their loans or bonds and can’t afford to borrow more), then the local, state and federal governments. Consumer Confidence up is a lying lagging indicator and should be changed to the Consumer Ignorance Index. Let’s play count the tankers and cargo ships on the high seas game.

Thinker
Thinker
January 15, 2016 12:35 pm

US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DECLINED AGAIN IN DECEMBER

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. industrial production dropped for the third straight month in December as utilities reduced output amid unusually warm weather and energy companies cut back in the face of falling oil prices.

Industrial production, which includes manufacturing, mining and utilities, contracted 0.4 percent after retreating a revised 0.9 percent the previous month, the Federal Reserve reported Friday.

American industry has struggled in recent months even as the overall economy appears solid. The November decline was the biggest drop since May 2009. Output fell 0.2 percent in October and was flat in September; the Fed originally reported that production fell in September.

“Overall, with the dollar still rising at a rapid pace and global demand clearly pretty weak we don’t expect much from the U.S. manufacturing sector this year,” Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research report. “We still expect the domestic service-based economy to perform well this year.”

Warm weather pushed utility output down 2 percent in December on top of a 5 percent drop in November. Mining production, which includes oil drilling, fell 0.8 percent. That was the fourth straight monthly drop.

Manufacturing production slid 0.1 percent after falling 0.1 percent in November. U.S. factories have been hurt by weakening economies overseas and a strong dollar that makes American-made products more expensive in foreign markets.

The Commerce Department reported last week that orders to U.S. factories dropped in November for the third time in four months. The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing contracted last month at the fastest pace in more than six years; it fell in November too.

American factories added just 30,000 jobs last year – the fewest since 2009.

Fiatman60
Fiatman60
January 15, 2016 12:39 pm

I guess that “rally” didn’t last too long with the next leg down in the markets this am. Even drinking to down your sorrows in your pension plan which is evaporating right in front of your eyes, is proof that the “bar” is more expensive than ever.

The bar next door to me is opening once again after a hiatis of over a year, by another sucker…er…. I mean “investor” wanting to part with his money.

After government taxation of alcohol, 2 drinks each with a meal comes in at over $50CAD!! Who the hell has that kind of discretionary spending? Even in the face of a 401K collapse?

Sheesh!! Shear lunacy I tell ya………

Gator
Gator
January 15, 2016 12:42 pm

@ flash – fair enough, I apologize if I misunderstood your trump support. I can certainly understand people liking him from a “burn it down” perspective.

And ya, it will be interesting to see how this plays out with the market. I almost regret cancelling my satellite subscription recently. I have always wanted to see jim cramers head explode on live TV, although Im sure here or ZH will post the meltdown if it happens. I bet peter schiff isn’t getting any phone calls now, they only call him when they want to try to make him look stupid for criticizing the mighty bull market.

Bullard tried again with jawboning the markets higher, but the open mouth operations just don’t cut it anymore.

Bea Lever
Bea Lever
January 15, 2016 12:45 pm

The Dow is down 507 points……….

Last one to the bar is a asshole.

flash
flash
January 15, 2016 12:48 pm

It’s 40 degrees and pouring rain here , and I just saw the trash service truck roll down the road and couldn’t help but feel nothign but empathy for the men , mostly black, who toil day after day , in baking sun , pouring rain or driving sleet , to haul our refuse to the dump for whats most likely minimum wage or not much more.
But, don’t get me wrong, my empathy is not due to their poor life choices that landed them on the back of a trash truck duirng all sorts of inclement weather, but for that which they, nor we, have any control.They just seem to suffer more.

The weather beaten trash-men must work at least 60 hours a week ( I’ve seen them on Sat and Sun at it) and for what? To see the purchasing power of their pittance of pay be reduced to not enough to even cover the basic necessitates of life?

It’s no wonder many turn to crime. Who cares, you may ask, they’re a dime a hundred thousand?If one goes to prison, then there are ten thousand willing to take their place, right? Don’t bet on it.You can only beat a dog down so much , before he turns on you with a vengeance.

While these less than astute souls may not be in the drivers seat of the economic wagon, they most certainly are lynchpins, which when finally worn thin and broken will send the once stable wagon careening down the side of the fiscal cliff and into abyss of chaos and destruction.

The avarice driven men who create economic instability out of the deranged desire for more and more money and power never notice or even contemplate the life destroying impoverishment they brutally heap via their self-serving monetary policy, onto the backs of those at the farthest end of the economic spectrum, but I’ve the gut feeling that one day they will not only feel the pain, but the wrath of these poor lost souls up close and personal.

Those who’ve lost all hope of sustaining themselves though the meager earnings of hard labor will reciprocate the recipients of their unfruitful labor in kind. Brutality for brutality. Bet on it.

Bostonbob
Bostonbob
January 15, 2016 12:49 pm

Goofy,
I don’t go to bars as a rule. too expensive. 24 oz can of Ice House $1.00, 40 oz plastic bottle of Steel Reserve $2.50. Cheap and effective, I just have to run a few extra miles to work it off.
Bob.

flash
flash
January 15, 2016 12:59 pm

Gator – I almost regret cancelling my satellite subscription recently.
I cancelled mine in ’07 after all networks set up a concerted group bash to not only push Ron Pail out of the POTUS race, but tried to destroy his reputation and career as well…and FUX (US) Newz was among the worst, in particular those two Cux bitches , Hannity and O’Reilly.

I never looked back…the internet rightwing issue blogs as long as they remains free, are the only reliable news source you’ll ever need…which BTW is proven time and again by the fact that bloggers have been responsible for breaking every major news story for the last 15 years….but blogger aren’t real journalists , right?

Stucky
Stucky
January 15, 2016 1:23 pm

There’s an Applebees right next to the Barnes&Noble I frequent. It is ALWAYS packed, from lunch time until evening. A Thai restaurant is 200 feet away and is always packed. Pretty much every half-way decent restaurant in a 10 mile radius from us is busy. On weekends it’s pretty much a given that if you don’t have a reservation, you don’t get in. It’s crazy and often hard to believe things are bad in ‘Murika …. but, Admin’s reasoning makes tremendous sense.

Sports is another area where it seems things are GRRRREAT! The IU Hoosiers had their first Big10 game right here in Piscataway (Rutgers), about 15 miles from us. I wanted to see them in person. There were very few tickets left — $65 each in the nosebleed section!!. And the joint was sold out by game time. Including parking and misc costs it would have cost Ms Freud and myself about $200 just to see a college basketball game. WTF??

Yet, college arenas are sold out across America, both in basketball and football. Same thing with the pros … filled to capacity stadiums, except tickets are HUNDREDS of dollars.

Or, wrestling. Golf. Bowling. Monster trucks. Rodeos. It just doesn’t matter the sport. Americans spend billions of dollars either watching or participating.

It always baffles me even though it should not. Come hell or high water, Americans love their “circuses”. We have plenty of money for that.

Sensetti
Sensetti
January 15, 2016 1:38 pm

Flash says, But, don’t get me wrong, my empathy is not due to their poor life choices that landed them on the back of a trash truck duirng

It may not be poor life choices! They may have climbed as many rungs on the intellectual ladder as their minds will allow!

Peaceout
Peaceout
January 15, 2016 1:48 pm

Just a couple of observations from my neck of the woods.

The restaurants around here are always full, call for a reservation for a table between 6 and 8 and nine times out of ten you will be told they should be able to seat you at 9;30 and beyond. Even corporate ptomaine parlors such as Olive Garden and Red Lobster have people milling around outside their front doors waiting for their names to be called. And it is not just on Friday and Saturday nights, it is most any night. The perception is that a lot of people have a lot of money to piss away or nobody knows how to, or are too lazy to cook for themselves.

It seems that there is an abundance of car commercials on TV lately, starting during the holidays, maybe I just have not been paying attention because we tend to watch shows previously recorded. But even Mrs. Peaceout has commented about how many car commercials are being run. Maybe it is because the car companies are way out in front of what is coming down the pike and are spending money trying to lure the ignorant masses into trading up to a new vehicle to keep the façade of sales growth up. Good luck with that.

There are no new homes being built. Not too many years ago every little wooded backroad had some new subdivision popping up on it with a catchy name, Brookside Meadows, Aspen Glen, Falling Waters and on and on. Today nothing. Occasionally you might see a guy adding on a garage or some other remodel, but that is about it. On the other hand where you do see building growth is in the central parts of town, where huge multi-unit apartments, condos and townhouse are popping up with retail, restaurants and small office space at street level and the living spaces above. This has become the new norm. This is what the current economy has forced young and old into. This is where young families are raising their children. Kids are not playing in the woods or with neighbor kids in cul de sacs, riding bikes and whatever anymore. They are now imprisoned in their small condos and maybe use the common activity center and exercise room. This is also the type of new urban environment that helps breed the alternative lifestyle movement. It is what these kids see every day and becomes a choice they make to fit in. Of course this doesn’t apply in every area but it is a typical observation.

A large segment of the population just don’t care anymore. I used to think it just applied to the ‘people of Walmart’ crowd but it is everywhere. Folks have just let themselves go, given up. There is no sense of pride anymore with folks, people walking around wearing t-shirts with obscene messages, 60, 80 or 100 pounds overweight, haven’t combed their hair or shaved their face in weeks, wearing ratty sweats to professional establishments. Stuff like this used to be an anomaly but now it is an ever increasing norm.

What does it all mean? Just a sign that times, morals and attitudes are changing and not for the better I guess.

Darknlovely
Darknlovely
January 15, 2016 1:57 pm

Jim,
Looking forward to your “Retail Meltdown” blog. Walmart, Macy’s, Target, JC brokePenny, etc. I am assuming you have some list.

Wally Russ
Wally Russ
January 15, 2016 2:20 pm

I have a friend who drinks too much

steve
steve
January 15, 2016 2:40 pm

The Judeo-Bolshevik corporate controlled media won’t last forever. There charade is up.

Anonymous
Anonymous
January 15, 2016 3:16 pm

Sensitte- It may not be poor life choices! They may have climbed as many rungs on the intellectual ladder as their minds will allow!

Thast a given , by no fault of their own, which is why described them as,”less than astute.”

flash
flash
January 15, 2016 3:16 pm

anon was I

prusmc
prusmc
January 15, 2016 3:57 pm

In NYS consumer demand is going to sky rocket. Onondaga county executive {R} and Syracuse city mayor{D} are going to the $15 minimum wage for all public related employees. Gov. Cuomo is going to $15 minimum for fast food workers with possible extension to all employees.

It won’t be long until happy days are here again.

yahsure
yahsure
January 15, 2016 4:18 pm

The trash man most likely has a higher paying job than most. At least they are working. Snobs.
Maybe making and selling booze is the next hot thing.

Stephanie Sharf
Stephanie Sharf
January 15, 2016 4:27 pm

Gerald Celente predicted at least a year ago that we would move to a “cafe economy” meaning people would be spending in coffee shops and bars, cheap entertainment and all they can afford.

Mahtomedi
Mahtomedi
January 15, 2016 4:29 pm

In my neck-of-the-woods, I see Applebees et al packed every night. At least us ‘Muricans know how to go out in style. The Russians stayed home and drank vodka with their potatoes and canned meat during their collapse.

Mike
Mike
January 15, 2016 4:40 pm

Jim, I will buy you a still one at Margarita’s. Or the new spot on the TP.

nkit
nkit
January 15, 2016 4:47 pm

Staying home drinking vodka and eating taters and canned meat seems more enticing than Applebees. But, that’s just me. Too many nights on the road for too long, and too many nights at Applebees.

Bob
Bob
January 15, 2016 5:15 pm

Garbage Tippers, as they may be called, are not paid minimum wage. They are making $10, $11, $12-$15+ per hour, depending on location. The compensable factors that drive this are working conditions and physical effort involved. Recruitment is sometimes a difficult proposition when unemployment is lower…

Llpoh
Llpoh
January 15, 2016 6:26 pm

Big truck sales have cratered – down 59% year on year. Let that sink in, and consider who buys trucks, and what them not buying portends for the economy at large.

Here is a hint: Shit. Fan.

IndenturedServant
IndenturedServant
January 15, 2016 6:51 pm

@Goofyhoof, you need to get a kegerator! Most microbreweries fill 1/6th barrel (five gallon) kegs for about $50-$60 bucks. I can’t even make my own beer for that price anymore! A converted fridge will hold up to eight 1/6th barrel kegs so you get a nice variety. The same beer by the pint would be about $320!

Bars and restaurants around here are packed. If we go out we chose locally owned establishments making real food and try to eat between 4pm-5pm.

The number of breweries is absolutely exploding around here. I have no hope of even tasting each of the locally made beers. How anyone can stand to drink that swill that passed for beer in the US for most of my life is beyond me. Life is too short to drink crappy beer!

@admin, I tried to submit a new post about an hour ago and got a message that TBP was offline. No Cloudfare message either. Just a 404 error.

Gayle
Gayle
January 15, 2016 11:21 pm

Stucky

Do you think your observations have any relation to last week’s report revealing that 62% of Americans have less than $1000 in savings?

Tom Stamps
Tom Stamps
January 15, 2016 11:51 pm

@ Flash Sound like a very angry man. Lighten up. At least those trash haulers are working.
Nothing wrong with a hard days work. Probably a better job than most people have around
the world. How about some meds?

IndenturedServant
IndenturedServant
January 16, 2016 12:28 am

Hey Tom, just don’t ask flash to pause.

Llpoh
Llpoh
January 16, 2016 12:32 am

Tom – now you done it. Flash will now cut and paste you into oblivion.

Bea Lever
Bea Lever
January 16, 2016 12:42 am

Tom- You better settle your affairs by morning……..Flash gets up very early.

Bea Lever
Bea Lever
January 16, 2016 12:45 am

I/S

The Top Fuel post was outstanding, thanks !

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
January 16, 2016 7:24 am

You should read the text version of the State of the Union Address. You’d think we lived in two different countries.

I’m not sure if it’s anything more than an anecdote, but lately the authentic, hard working guys around here are all smiles, very upbeat as if the general decline has lifted their boats. As the general malaise spreads through the indolent types, the worker ants are simply becoming more productive and becoming even more self assured. That may qualify as an unintended consequence.

Great work as usual.