Why Voters Will Stay Angry

From the supporters of Donald Trump to the street protesters of southern Europe, voters around the world are mad as hell. Inequality, immigration, and the establishment’s perceived indifference are firing up electorates in a way that’s rarely been seen before. As the following charts from Bloomberg show, the forces shaping the disruption of global politics have been building for years and aren’t about to diminish…

The world’s middle classes are getting poorer

The share of wealth owned by the middle class declined in every part of the world on a relative basis

U.S. workers’ share of income has dropped to near the lowest since World War II

And in the past century, the rich have gotten markedly richer

Incomes in Europe’s southern crisis countries have fallen since 2009, while rising elsewhere

Things are even worse for young people

In Spain and Greece, unemployment among those under 25 is still close to 40 percent despite a slight improvement in recent years

U.S. student debt is soaring, while median pay for recent college graduates has barely budged

Parents in major western countries are increasingly worried about their children’s prospects

Immigration and war are compounding the anxiety

European countries are seeing unprecedented flows of refugees seeking asylum and have little power to stop them within the passport-free zone

As Syria’s implosion sends millions of refugees toward the EU, more voters choose immigration as a top concern

Americans worry about immigration more than they did 14 years ago

All this is causing politics to fragment

Last year, only 19% of Americans trusted their government “just about always” or “most of the time” – down from 54% after the 9/11 attacks

As measured by historical voting in the U.S. House of Representatives, the two U.S. political parties have moved away from the center in the past 40 years

It’s the same picture in Europe as distrust of government has surged, to a high of 84% in Spain

That’s all helping insurgent parties storm the region’s national parliaments

Political newcomers have gained far greater share in recent elections, and established parties in some cases have withered away

Asia is bucking the trend. So far

Asia has largely been exempt from the West’s discontent, in part because incomes have risen so rapidly

But unrest can’t be ruled out, especially as China’s growth miracle recedes. Already workers’ strikes are becoming more and more widespread

Upcoming elections with potential to cause more chaos…

Brexit, June 23, 2016
Polls*:
36% stay
36% leave
28% don’t know

U.S., November 2016
Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump in the latest average of polls on a head-to-head comparison* of the parties’ front-runners. Yet that matchup is far from assured, as Republican power brokers are exploring ways to keep Trump from claiming the nomination at the party’s convention in July and pushing his closest rival, Senator Ted Cruz, as the preferred alternative in the remaining state nominating contests.

France, May 2017
First-round voting preference:
27% National Front’s Marine Le Pen
22% President Francois Hollande
21% Former president Nicolas Sarkozy

Germany, around summer 2017
While national polls show Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union far ahead of the second-biggest party, the Social Democrats, the insurgent Alternative for Germany could cause trouble. Support for the anti-immigrant party surged in recent regional elections.

Source: Bloomberg.com