Whatever their plans, the stakeholders in the Middle East must remember that clever plans to remake the Middle East have hitherto been remarkable for their inability to anticipate countermoves by opposing forces.
Tension is increasing all across the Middle East and the United States is again falling into a trap set up by its so-called allies to act against its own interests by getting deeply involved in what might turn out to be an escalating conflict. The recent victories by the Syrian Army and its Russian allies, which suggest that the active phase of the Syrian civil war will soon be drawing to a close, means that the perennial unrest in the region will be shifting gears and possibly leading to new conflict in areas that have until now been quiet. The lack of any real American policy for the region will enable the Saudis and Israelis, who have hegemonistic dreams of their own, to manipulate a casus belli, quite likely starting in Lebanon, where Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri recently resigned his office and fled to Saudi Arabia, claiming that he was fearing for his life due to his resistance to Iran’s influence over his country.
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Hariri headed a coalition pulled together in 2016 that included nearly all of Lebanon’s main parties, including Hezbollah. It took office in a political deal that made Michel Aoun, a Maronite Christian who has an understanding with Hezbollah, president. The inclusion of Hezbollah and the presence of a friendly Aoun was seen as a victory for Iran.
The Hariri resignation was certainly carried out in collusion with Riyadh, to include the damning of Iranian influence as his reason for leaving. It suggests that the Saudis and Israelis, who have been hyperbolically claiming that Tehran is about to take control of much of the Middle East, are feeling confident enough to move towards some kind of showdown with the Mullahs. As a first step, expected deteriorating sectarian interaction between Sunni and Shi‘ite Muslims in Lebanon will eliminate any possibility of a bipartisan and functioning government, providing a pretext for foreign intervention to stabilize the situation.
The United States is clearly privately approving the Israeli and Saudi moves, as Washington, Riyadh and Tel Aviv have all adamantly opposed the existence of the Lebanese coalition dominated by Aoun and Hezbollah’s Nasrullah because of the Hezbollah presence. The next step will be for Israel fighter aircraft to increase their incursions into Lebanese airspace in light of the alleged instability north of the border derived from the claims by Hariri that he was about to be assassinated. The activity would be intended to provoke a Lebanese response that would escalate into an incident that will lead to a major strike to bring the Beirut government down. The ultimate objective is to create a Saudi and Israeli-led grand Sunni alliance, which might be a fantasy, to pushback Iranian influence in the entire region. Lebanon’s Hezbollah, opposed by the Saudis because it is Shi’a and by Israel because of its missile arsenal, would be targeted as the first marker to fall.
A supportive Washington role in the conflict will of course be indispensable and there is every sign that it would be forthcoming, with grand strategists like Generals Mattis and McMaster no doubt envisioning a roll-up of Shi’as starting in Lebanon and working eastward while the Saudis continue their aggression against Yemen to counter alleged Iranian interference in that area. Israel will also undoubtedly step up its attacks on Syrian Army positions, claiming that it is striking Hezbollah, to further complicate any countermoves by the Iranians. Israel has made it very clear that it will attack any Iranian military positions that are established in Syria.
It is important to recall that clever plans to remake the Middle East have hitherto been remarkable for their inability to anticipate countermoves by opposing forces. Bashar al-Assad has survived an onslaught directed by the very same alignment now out to reverse a perceived Iranian-led Shi’a ascendancy and Hezbollah proved so successful against Israel that Israeli war plans now rule out any action on the ground due to the high casualty levels experienced in 1990-2000. The US would be playing a supporting role in any conflict, but might well suffer collateral damage if Iran is drawn in directly, a development that could easily lead to armed conflict between Washington and Tehran.
Reprinted with permission from Strategic Culture Foundation.
Trump appears to have been swayed by the Saudi PR offensive, but it remains to be seen whether the crown prince’s anti corruption sweeps and liberalization are just part of that PR offensive. Trump still has the ability to thwart the Israeli plans. We’ll see if he does. He needs to be continually reminded that if we’d wanted McCain’s foreign policy, we’d have elected Hillary.
“The lack of any real American policy for the region will enable the Saudis and Israelis, who have hegemonistic dreams of their own, to manipulate a casus belli”
right there, the true explanation of US policy as protector/enforcer/provider for Israel for decades now. by keeping the rest of MENA in turmoil, the small state is able to eke out continuing survival in the face of huge odds. we say they are our ally, but the truth is the puppet strings holding the US have been visible for some time. cash and protection for Israel and Saudi Arabia, and now maybe even a political melding of the two supposed arch enemies.
Why does Giraldi consider it a ‘trap’. I know he hates the United States but any reasonably intelligent person would believe Israel alone could destroy any conceivable forces arrayed against it in Lebanon AND Syria. Assad’s air force would be shot out of the skies on Day One and unless Russia, somehow, was able and willing to ferry hundreds of its most advanced aircraft to non existent bases in the region, Israel would have total air supremacy.
Having dealt with Hezbollah before in 2006 Israel would be unlikely to attempt another frontal assault on Hezbollah’s tunnel and fortified positions though I imagine they have greatly improved their ‘earth penetrating’ ordinance to take out just those sorts of positions.
Iran doesn’t have much of an air force either and the Saudi’s could quickly shut down Iran’s oil terminals with its aircraft. Whether Iran’s missiles could do the same to Saudi I confess I don’t know but Saudi Arabia has pipelines to the Red Sea so it isn’t totally dependent on tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf.
BTW Egypt, which is the other ‘big boy’ in the neighborhood, backs Saudi Arabia so I doubt it would object to whatever action Israel and Saudi Arabia feel is necessary .
OTOH, Russia will control the skies (with a little help from its friends, including their airfields) with its air arm and their S-300/S-400 arrays.
Israel will be toast.
Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, and Russia know they will eventually be toast if the Axis of Evil (US, SA, NATO) is allowed to Balkanize Syria.
Thus, don’t look for a new confrontation in MENA, as Syria is far from over. The Good Guys will not let the Kurds/rebels/al-Qaeda/ISIS control the oil fields in Raqqa or Deir Ezzor.
lsrael has acquired a SS=300 SAM system so they have no doubt analyzed its radars and developed countermeasures. The SS 400 is a top of the line long range SAM so it is expensive to fire and not available in the kind of numbers to stop the Israeli Air Force. The reality is there has never been an air defense system the Israeli Air Force did not defeat and once fired its capabilities will be revealed and steps taken to counter them.
Russia’s air base in Syria accommodated two squadrons of fighter bombers not wings and there simply aren’t the facilities in Syria to operate large numbers of Russian aircraft even if Russia wanted to send them. Their “aircraft carrier” lost two jets when it tried to conduct operations off Syria earlier this year. It won’t be coming back.
Syrian oil fields are irrelevant. Its not even a small OPEC nation.
We have spent 5 trillion dollars since 2000 in the Middle East and it looks like 10 trillion more is needed. How much would it cost to permanently retire the NeoCons.
The Neocons will accept nothing less than all the money in the world.