Would Rural Areas Be Safer In A SHTF Situation?

Guest Post by Tom Chatham

In a situation where national infrastructure and life sustaining resources are suddenly cut off , population density will have a lot to do with how well you get by in the days following the crisis. When it happens, what you have on hand will likely be all you have to work with for an extended time. Those that lack supplies will seek out and take what they need in an increasingly hostile manner as time goes on. This is why being in a large city will likely be hazardous to your well being.

Very few will argue that being in a rural area when something catastrophic happens will greatly increase your chances of survival. A lower population density and more available natural resources to help you get by will make long term survival much easier. This is why so many people advocate heading for a rural area when something happens. The problem is unless you are already established in a rural area, survival will not necessarily be easier.

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Leaving the city when supplies and infrastructure are shut down would work only up to a point. Rural areas are like anywhere else. They have infrastructure designed to service a certain number of people that normally live there. The housing, restaurants, roadways, water systems and grocery stores will only handle a small excess of people even in the best of times. When the city dwellers suddenly evacuate to the rural areas in mass, they will simply be taking many of their big city problems with them. They will likely find no housing, food supplies or other infrastructure they need to live.

Because of this many small towns will likely close their roads at some point and prevent entry to anyone who does not live there. They will suddenly realize their already finite resources will not be enough for themselves much less thousands of new people. This realization will likely come only after they have been inundated with strangers demanding supplies and housing. It is for this reason that rural dwellers should hope cities are locked down fairly quickly to prevent people from leaving.

When Henry Kaiser built a new shipyard in Richmond, Ca. in the 1940’s the town was suddenly overwhelmed with new workers. People lived in shoddy trailers they towed in, some slept in boarding houses in shifts and the schools ran three shifts a day. Eventually they built the new infrastructure they needed and life went on but this only happened because they were living in normal times when everything was working properly. Imagine an influx of people into a small town when supplies are already limited and likely to get worse as time goes on.

That is why it is essential that you establish yourself in a rural area before something happens. Simply hoping to show up following an event is no plan and will likely cause resentment by the locals when supplies run low.

Rural areas offer the opportunity to be much more self reliant than city spaces. This is the reason rural areas offer people a better chance to survive something like a grid down scenario. This is only true until the carrying capacity of the rural area is breached. That is when the city problems become rural problems. Simply moving a mass of unprepared people to another area with even less infrastructure will not solve the problem, it will only change the surroundings and create other problems.

There is an old saying that you never eat your seed stock. Self sufficient people know this because if they eat their seeds or butcher their breeding stock they will not have anything to raise the following year which will lead to eventual starvation or loss of future income. To an unprepared person that thinks food is produced in a factory, preserving seed stock makes no sense when they are hungry right now. They do not care about next year, they only care about today which is why they got into their situation in the first place. This is the type of situation that can doom a society if they lose the ability to produce future crops, even on a small scale.

Will rural areas be safer in a SHTF situation? Only if they can maintain order and protect the resources they have to insure long term sustainability of the community. Most communities are not prepared for this type of situation and will need a steep learning curve if they are to survive it. Many will likely not survive it.

Modern farming communities do not have the infrastructure to maintain themselves like many once did. Factory farming has moved much of the local production to central locations around the nation and few farmers produce their own seed locally. These and other modern systems will make it difficult for many farm communities to even care for their own much less thousands of new arrivals.

The only communities that are likely to survive in tact are the ones that are mostly self sufficient already and have a plan to maintain production and protect themselves from looters and overcrowding. Simply running to a rural area in a time of crisis is no cure all. Wherever you are, the key to survival will be advance preparation and a good plan.

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32 Comments
Dan
Dan
January 30, 2018 9:35 pm

Never underestimate the power of tight-knit communities and rural areas that come together in a SHTF event. We see this all over the country whenever there is a major disaster. A grid-down will of course lead to a LOT of casualties, but if communities hold it together, they will survive much better than the cities, which will turn into savage death-zones.

robert
robert
January 30, 2018 10:01 pm

Small town communities, at least here in IN, are mostly bedroom communities anymore. They have also become home to a lot of drug users and welfare types who don’t garden much. There are good people for sure, but it is no longer the America of 40 years ago. I frankly don’t know how it will shake out, but I have some nice neighbors here who probably don’t have three day’s worth of anything in reserve. This will present a problem if the SHTF even without any people moving in from elsewhere. I hope I don’t have to make the decision this scenario implies.

Iconoclast421
Iconoclast421
January 30, 2018 10:18 pm

A highland forest would probably be the best spot. Right up near the top edge of the treeline.

Penforce
Penforce
  Iconoclast421
January 30, 2018 11:38 pm

Are you avoiding other people or oxygen?

Mark
Mark
January 31, 2018 12:00 am

Is it Crazy to Worry About the Golden Horde?
Nope……
http://www.theprepperjournal.com/2014/08/28/crazy-worry-golden-horde/

RHS Jr
RHS Jr
January 31, 2018 12:01 am

In 1929, there was one farmer for every city dweller and most city slickers either grew up on a farm or had relatives on a farm. Now there is about 1 farmer for every 50 slickers and none of them know how to survive on their own off the land (only off others). The government has been giving assistance to “disadvantaged farmers” to get them to farm but I don’t know of one single success. We White farmers and ranchers know the FSA will immediately become looters like in Rhodesia (and countless US cities) who would kill all the Whites, eat the seed and breeding stock so everybody starves. Heading them off at the pass is the best plan.

Anonymous
Anonymous
January 31, 2018 1:17 am

Open Borders!
Diversity Is Our Strength!

underfire
underfire
January 31, 2018 1:22 am

To the above I would add that those country people, living in red counties, aren’t going to be falling all over themselves to welcome the liberal hordes pouring out of the big cities. Hostility would be the more accurate term.

MadMike
MadMike
January 31, 2018 1:57 am

Two big mistakes are thinking you can “live off the land” and that bugging out with a “seed bank” are viable ideas. Living off hunting and foraging isn’t viable, and neither is survival gardening unless you have a few years of experience actually doing it successfully at your BOL. Both together, done at a place you know and are known might work… but “don’t forget the guns”…

Mountain Farmer Woman
Mountain Farmer Woman
January 31, 2018 7:00 am

Even in good times rural people are initially suspicious of newcomers. I live in western North Carolina. They call all outsiders “northerners” even if they come from Florida.

Generally speaking they don’t like the “northerners” because they try to tell the “locals” how to live their lives. The average “northerner” thinks they are better than the average “local”. A liberal “northerner” does not fit in at all with the conservative “locals”.

Life in the country is very different from life in the city. There is not a lot of entertainment that city slickers are used to. Most people here do not have gardens. However, they know much, much more about basic survival than city slickers do. There is more community in the country. And everyone has guns.

BillyJoeBanjo
BillyJoeBanjo
  Mountain Farmer Woman
January 31, 2018 7:33 am

Northerners are like hemorrhoids, MFW. We don’t mind em coming down for a bit as long as they go back up. It’s when they come down and stay that causes the problem.

Grog
Grog
  BillyJoeBanjo
January 31, 2018 9:16 am

When they come as a tourist, they’re a Yankee.
When they do not leave, they’re a Damn Yankee.

Mountain Farmer Woman
Mountain Farmer Woman
  BillyJoeBanjo
January 31, 2018 10:15 am

I am a Northerner. Raised in Delaware and New Jersey. Then moved to Florida. Then to North Carolina. I am not like most Northerners. A teenager that is the son of one of my local friends said: “You’re OK for a Northerner.”

But yes most of the time Northerners are unpleasant because they think they know how everything should be done, and then try to push that on the locals. My lifestyle is very much like a locals: big garden, chickens, ducks. I had goats for 10 years. I’ve had pigs, rabbits, homing pigeons, bees.

I even wrote the book: “Western North Carolina Farm and Garden Calendar” that I sell on my website.

Grog
Grog
  Mountain Farmer Woman
January 31, 2018 10:40 am

“half back”
Term used by Mid-Atlantic state locals to describe a Northerner (aka “Yankee”) who moves to Florida to escape the cold winters; only to find it is too hot and moves half way back up the coast to the mid Atlantic states (NC, SC, VA). Typically used in a derogatory manner as is Yankee in many parts of the South.

Mark
Mark
  Mountain Farmer Woman
January 31, 2018 11:51 am

Mountain Farmer Woman,

You and I are simpatico…I have to leave but when I get back I’ll check out your website. I’m in north eastern NC.

A friend who is a life long resident told me I was purest Red Neck he knew…and I thanked him for the compliment.

Mark
Mark
  Mountain Farmer Woman
January 31, 2018 9:32 pm

Mountain Farmer Woman,

Just ordered your book.

It looks right up my alley, always looking for tips and insights.

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
January 31, 2018 7:52 am

It’s a question that answers itself, isn’t it?

Cities have the highest crime rates IN THE BEST OF TIMES.

Cities are 100% dependent upon rural areas for their sustenance. Most American cities have strict gun laws making self-defense a criminal act. The highest number of government dependents live in urban areas. when people use the term SHTF I always assume it means “you’re on your own” to figure out how to survive in terms of day to day sustenance and self-defense. I can’t think of any place less likely to offer those opportunities during a SHTF scenario than urban areas.

Bubbah
Bubbah
January 31, 2018 8:00 am

I call bullshit on the vagueness of the question in the article to begin with. What is deemed a SHTF situation? EMP? Comet? World War? Economic collapse into 3rd type conditions? Electric grid failures? Food shortages? Severe Droughts?

Living in rural areas will not be a magic bullet of protection vs. many many SHTF type scenarios. The main benefit is distance from the gangs/mobs. But that is only really a deterent in certain situations. If cars and gas are still available, its not too hard from gangs to hit the hinterlands.

Also the notion that modern day rural people are somehow close to self-sufficient is ludicrous. I live in a rural area with farms on both sides of my property and only 9 homes on my 2mile+ road. Some of my neighbors are mennonites, but they aren’t the amish of old. They all have hobby farms, but rely on tractors and cars and beyond how they dress (little house in the prairie-esque) they are pretty far off from self-sufficient. The two cattle farmers that live nearby are probably closest to sufficient, since they could do haying with their horses if they really had to. Alot of folks have small gardens, but in terms of calories surival, they are good for maybe a month of food. The rest of the farmers just use big machines and grow soy/corn endlessly. So I would say some of the folks would be more resilient to certain things, others would be screwed just as quickly if the lights went out. Sure everyone has guns here, and most everyone has more know-how and physical skills than urban dwellers typically do, but many of these skills are still tied to modern inputs being there. Even the local mennonites don’t have hand pumps for their wells anymore. I think living in the country is great as a lifestyle and I prefer nature to masses of people. But as some sort of saftey net, I think its not likely the case for 90%+. Most of the rural folks don’t even have wood burning stoves anymore or many of the other things one would sorely need. Probably plenty of small towns that would do just as well as those living in the rural areas, which is saying just as bad. I think people have been reading too much surival fiction where people bug out to the country and learn to be self-sufficient from some old farmer. I talk to plenty of farmers that have a narrow range of skills, but know far less about sufficiency then me. There is a reason our ancestors were hunter gatherers, staying in one spot and being sufficient without a community network is pretty close to impossible, and you best have a lot of money and know how to pull it off.

Anonymous
Anonymous
January 31, 2018 8:25 am

I know a gal down in the Ozarks who is prepping really well. Not sure if she and her hub have the capacity or willingness to accept a new stray cat or two at her own Gulch when the social levee breaks.
Kidding. But I am considering sending a petition for purchase of some bunny for the barbie, if ok.

For most of the like minded ’round here, the better bet would seem to hunker down right where they are, and stockpile some smart resources they think will be vital. The list is long, for anyone aware.

For the procrastinators, “When would now be a good time to plan & prepare?”
Waiting for a proverbial black swan that Nassim Talib describes to come into sight may be too late.

I’d probably venture out, but it would be to join forces a family member in a part of the state that at least has far less of the darkness that is closer to my crib. The Ahneemahls from the jungle too close by will surely get more desperate and violent when the welfare checks stop and them fatasses get hungry after BK closes. ‘Whopper’ will take on different meanings.

As for gardening, from what I understand, heritage seeds are those that still have the ability to germinate and grow produce that will in turn create more seeds for future growth.
…as opposed to the genetically modified seed that Monsanto has created in the lab.
Can anyone on TBP refer a source for heritage seeds?
This city slick has a small plot or two in the back yard that produces a little, not much, but it’s the fun experience that’s being gained that is more valuable than the modest harvest of peppers, cukes, tommies, zuke, and spuds.

Mark
Mark
  Anonymous
January 31, 2018 9:36 am

Hey buddy, here are two.

I have stored enough seeds for many years and this year will start practicing saving my own.

DIY Seed Vault – Save Seed for 10 Years

Maggie
Maggie
  Anonymous
January 31, 2018 9:53 pm

Baker Heirloom Seeds is in another neck of the Ozarks and they sell variety packs of heirloom seeds. I will be planting my own to start my own seed storage this year. I am getting the pots and containers ready for my venture into heirloom greenhouse gardening, fertilized by chubby bunny composted pellets.

Oh, and there will always be a bunny on the barby for a friendly TBPer needing a place to ride the storm out. We did move the water heater from the treehouse, so until the little shack is renovated, the barn appears to be the guest house. With the big industrial heat blower I had in the treehouse for the Mennonite builders, the barn is really fairly comfortable. And, of course, I had it plumbed for a full bathroom. I put the draining line for the gray water in all by myself.

TampaRed
TampaRed
January 31, 2018 8:59 am

Alabama,”Song Of The South”–
at the 1:30 mark is what will have to happen in small towns/rural areas even if the area is already prepared,which i agree w/several of you above,most rural people no longer have the skills/means to take care of themselves–[img]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHdXQAQHjd8[/img]

Anonymous
Anonymous
January 31, 2018 9:49 am

In a genuine SHTF situation, not just some local difficulties but genuine widespread national SHTF, no place is safe.

Mark
Mark
  Anonymous
January 31, 2018 10:43 am

I agree on a national SHTF no place will be safe. Besides being heavily armed and geared up (those without combat experience almost always don’t have enough magazines and combat gear) having like-minded neighbors and a tribe already formed and Prepped will be critical.

Mark
Mark
January 31, 2018 10:39 am

I have spent a great deal of time, money and hard work to prepare for what I feel will sooner or later be an eventual economic crisis, collapse, war(s) (Civil or international), natural or man-made disasters/emergencies as never seen before in our history.

The 4th Turning book just threw gasoline on my already raging fire.

No matter what happens I also want to leave a living self-sufficient inheritance for my family. A modest working farm that I believe will be one of the most valuable hard assets possible for my child and her husband and their child. That is the jewel legacy I want to pass on.

When the Petulant One was re-elected for the second round of his treasonous “Radical Transformation” betrayals, I was convinced before 2017 he would cause so much division, disruption, dissension, debt and globalist opportunity he would bring U.S. down on our knees or worse. I combined a lifelong dream, with retirement, with being a committed Prepper and a true believer in the back to the land, self-sufficient, homestead, New Pioneer movement:

https://www.magazines.com/new-pioneer-magazine.html

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Issues of The New Pioneer are packed with informative articles and information, including DIY and gardening ideas. Whether readers are interested in orchards, berries, or vegetables, they’ll find helpful tips for bountiful harvests, as well as suggestions for canning and storing their crops. The New Pioneer also includes information about raising livestock, from traditional species like cows, pigs, and chickens, to more exotic livestock like alpacas, llamas, and bees. Real-world advice, like how to convert to solar energy or pay off debt, is designed to be practical and helpful for any reader.
The New Pioneer also includes DIY information on both a small and large scale. Readers can learn to craft furniture and sawhorses, as well as sheds, barns, and more. Other features include profiles of families who successfully live off the land, and The New Pioneer highlights their tips and tricks for a simple life. Readers will also find information about craft brewing and distilling, firearms, and unusual housing options, as well as product recommendations for apparel and outdoor gear.
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In late 2012 I found a beautiful piece of abandoned land with a dilapidated old double wide, a collapsing barn, with overgrown pastures and an overgrown pond (14 acres) outside a small town, sold my too big cul-de-sac home and never looked back.

overthecliff
overthecliff
January 31, 2018 10:44 am

Don’t think you will be welcome in the country. Be prepared and above all else be armed. In the best of circumstances it’s not going to be fun.
I’m close to Maggie and like minded in many ways but I wouldn’t be welcome at her place and that is the way it should be.

Maggie
Maggie
  overthecliff
January 31, 2018 9:55 pm

We are not going to be overly picky about like minded people needing a place to hang out and prepare to rebuild. So, as long as you know how to take care of yourself, sheltering here is always an option otc.

TJF
TJF
January 31, 2018 12:35 pm

Do the Amish or Mennonites maintain an arsenal? They have a tight knit highly self-sufficient communities compared to average people. It will be a shame when they are overwhelmed by the hoards fleeing the metro areas at some point.

BB
BB
January 31, 2018 12:47 pm

I have heard alot about the so called ” Golden Horde ” but for most just one or two warning shots will be enough to send them on Their way .If not then you shoot to kill. It’s that simple.I have already made up my mind.I Don’t want to kill but I’m not going to allow my neighbor or my family to be harmed if I can prevent it.I have a 308 sniper rifle that is accurate out to 800 yards.I think that’s my ” thou shalt not pass ” line in SHTF Situation

Maggie
Maggie
  BB
January 31, 2018 9:58 pm

Our little community will block the bridges and guard shallow riverbanks. The big bridges on the interstates will probably come down to prevent invasion from St. Louis.

Bubbah
Bubbah
January 31, 2018 2:05 pm

The mennonites remain pacifists as a group anyway. The local menn’s do hunt or at least some of them, so I think hunting rifles remain common. You pretty much have to have a rifle to deal with critters now and again. If you have horses and cows, gophers are a menace. My hunting license is pretty much solely for ground hog killing. They are persistent and have done some major damage with large tunnels on my property. I fell through the ground once walking through the edge of the woods into a groundhog system, I was lucky I didn’t tear my knee. Smoke and all that other junk doesn’t work well. Basically .22’s I view as a requirement to country living, even if you don’t like guns or want guns for self defense purposes.

The Amish around here are OK, they aren’t my favorite neighbors actually. The two families nearby are horrible drivers and go off the road all the time. I would prefer they just use buggies actually. What’s funny is that we have country neighbors riding horses down our road all the time, but the mennonites never ride them. I think our local ones perhaps are more “worldly” then some others that I’ve met. But they do have the little metal signs telling us to fear gods wrath etc etc under their mailboxes. Amish continue to breed though, lots of kids around, rare to see white folks with more than 2 kids now adays elsewhere.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Bubbah
January 31, 2018 2:51 pm

Bub, you’re the 2nd one I heard of that said a .22 to a ground hog’s skull is a reliable method to at least keep their numbers low, if not eradicate them.