Authors’ note: The response to the first few parts of this series show that the vast majority of readers are myopic in their view point. This series is about l-o-n-g t-e-r-m consequences of currently occurring happenings. It is not intended to be thought of as a One Turning forecast or even multiple 4TH Turnings. A turning is between 80-100 years and I’m talking about a thousand years and specie survival. I’ll try and rein in my long term view after this series and get back to talking about next month.
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Start Part III
The higher productivity of agriculture is the reason why population density and growth has fallen off the table as a popular subject to debate. Additionally, religion that espouses moral opposition to birth control in any fashion (including abortion) is spreading throughout undeveloped areas of the world ( as well as the USA’s swing to evangelical prominence) so we can be sure that more and more of the extra food production technology makes possible will be swallow up faster and faster. Worse luck, that, and our greatgrandchildren will live to regret it. True, this must be balanced against the fact that the more education women get, the fewer children they tend to have. You can also have a problem like they have in China with their “one child” policy that had led them to a demographical time bomb about to go off. On balance, population will still increase with time.
What is far more likely the result of continuing population expansion is war. Wars are fought over possession and control of land. There are, of course, other excuses for fighting a war, such as wars based on religious or cultural differences, but throughout the history of human conflict, fighting over the control of land and the resources thereon is the basis for war.
Need I illustrate? The Persian Gulf “war” was over oil. Period. WWII was over oil and mineral resources – Germany wanted them and had no way to pay for them after the ridiculous conditions placed upon it post-WWI. WWI? Again, over resources that were unevenly divided in the then politically defined Europe. Vietnam and Korea? Artificial wars created by political stupidity in splitting up spoils of WWII. These “wars” were still fought over land, resources and loot. The crusades? Obviously religious in the history books but they were truly in retaliation for hundreds of years of brutal and deadly Muslim expansion from the middle East and Northern Africa. There were huge treasure hunting and resource overtones and outcomes. Again, over land. Hey, the winner of a war gets to plunder a little, right?
When arable land or land possessing vital resources (oil, water, minerals) runs short for any given population, economic activity declines, hunger and deprivation sets in, standards of living drop (unto death).
Migration and flight inevitably begins and most deadly of all, if the populations have not been starved completely to apathy, war will follow when countries try to annex resources of those nearby. War also happens when migrants clash with those neighboring peoples who are inundated by fleeing populations. This is especially true of populations trapped so far below their abilities to improve their standard of living or even survive given the slightest interruption in the food chain (by nature or politics). After all, when there is nothing left to loose and life is not worth living, why not fight?
India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia and most of Africa are excellent examples. As I write this, India and Pakistan have “made nice” over Kashmir all the while polishing and expanding an atomic warfare capability. Iran is close behind with nuclear capability. (I can think of nothing that brings fear to my heart more than an Islamic Bomb – and it’s already there in Pakistan!) Control of land is the basis of the dispute, stirred up with the old Muslim/Hindu hatred of a thousand years.. The next war, if it happens could be nuclear in nature. Boom! Radiation and particle fallout is no respecter of national borders and the wind blows and blows in that part of the world. Let us hope that rational men can prevail (but don’t bet your life on it).
Only a relative few within the populations of those countries mentioned above are smart enough and rich enough to climb out of the pit. They are the ones we see in our own country as physicians, mathematicians and other highly educated professionals. They have already “beat feet” to a better place. Only in the last 20 years do we see significant economic (if not social) improvements in India and China.
China, at the moment, is making a valiant attempt to drag itself away from the abyss of a centrally planned economy converting its’ economy to a hybrid capitalist/planned system and begins to now compete for natural resources with the rest of the developed world. At the same time, every year, China must create 150,000,000 new jobs from a population of 2 billion and climbing. How long do you think that will last? Not very long I assure you. Don’t forget – for every Chinese who manages to raise his standard of living to the level now enjoyed by the United States, more and more pressure is put upon everyone economically and as resources are squeezed, our standard of living will eventually drop. This is now happening as higher paying manufacturing jobs vanish overseas to lower wage countries and prices rise as competition heats up for available natural resources such as oil, copper, zinc, and steel. We are left with two wage earners working two or more jobs and borrowing more and more to maintain the old standard of living. It is no surprise that our national savings rate is almost negative – when past years saw savings rates averaging 6-9%. Now we are the start of a financial crash of worldwide proportions that will insure, thanks to misguided political efforts to “do something”, that we will all be poorer by and by.
While we sometimes see media driven cheerleading of scientific and industrial production in these developing countries, the truth is that the vast majority of the population of these countries cannot and will not improve their standard of living over their lifetimes or their children or children’s children. In most of Africa, people are doomed to live very short, nasty lives because they have never managed to progress economically or educationally even to start the process of climbing out of the pit they are in. Nigeria is one of the more progressive African countries and it still suffers from civil war.
Within these countries, there are simply insufficient resources and wealth to allow any but a select, very smart few to rise above the herd. Eventually, as the size of the population continues to increase , the poorer masses will be heard from and that voice will be death and destruction. The all too recent tribal violence in Rawanda that killed eight hundred thousand people is a good example – and gee whiz – in our country you almost didn’t hear about it and it was totally ignored. The exact same thing is happening in Sudan today and while words and broken promises litter the bloody landscape, nothing is (or probably could) be done to stop it.
As an accepted fact, the poorer and less educated and more religious a country’s population is, the more offspring they will produce. The cultural and genetic drive to produce many children so that some of them may survive to hopefully take care of elderly Mom and Dad is both irresistible and deemed necessary in these countries and cultures.
End Part III
Muck says “I’ll try and rein in my long term view after this series and get back to talking about next month.”
Geez, Muck, at your advanced age, I would be limiting your talk to what might be happening tonight, or perhaps tomorrow, if you are feeling real optimistic. I mean, this pic is of you a few years ago, so you are getting on a bit:
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LLPOH, The morans and rah-rahs again will not care. Not about the sun or the sea. These America firsters have no idea what goes on beyond the border, they just want to keep up with the Kardashians and wall the rest of the world off.
Imagine that; 4% of the world’s population is too good for the rest of the undeserving world. Let’s give a listen to them now:
Chances are most of us have seen more of the world than you have, EC.
BTW – you have hide as thick as an elephant and big brass ones to match to post the last couple articles. Gotta hand it to you.
Dust to dust, someday, maybe at 20 or 90.
Just think if they had the Internet in earlier times, with all else being the same for that specific time. Example, 1900 – I believe they still had child labor at that time. So, when the 12 year old got off his 12 hour shift and logged onto the Internet, don’t you think the Doom Porn would have been 100 times more horrible.
Recognize the problem(s) and even, if possible, do something to fix the problem(s), but don’t be fixated on negativity.
One for three. At least this one addressed real problems instead of manbearpig.
Muck – above you say “This is now happening as higher paying manufacturing jobs vanish overseas to lower wage countries”.
That is incorrect. The jobs are not disappearing overseas (for the major part) – they are simply disappearing. Manufacturing as a percentage of GDP in the US remains the same as it ever was. It is unchanged. BUT manufacturing as a percentage of the workforce has dropped from around 50% to around 8% currently.
The reason is that for the same amount of output, approximately 2.5% fewer employees are required each year So 100 employees this year become 97.5 next year, 95 the following, etc.
This reduction in labor per a given output has marched on steadily for many decades now. Do the math, starting at say 1950 an see for yourself: 50% times .975 times 68 years and see what you get. (hint: it is 8%. what a coincidence, right? It is even worse when you consider that the falling participation rate.)
Then do it another 20 times, and you get around 5% of the population will work in manufacturing, down from 8% today, in 20 years. I figure it will stabilize at or around 4% -5% of the working population will be required in manufacturing. Shipping manufacturing jobs overseas is neither here nor there – it has been a relatively minor influence on manufacturing jobs in the scheme of things, and technology will continue to eat manufacturing jobs, and numbers are so low that even if flows to overseas increase substantially, it is not a major factor given the low percentage of workers who are currently in manufacturing.
Service jobs being lost to automation and tech is going to be the real issue, make no mistake.
@LLPOH: Thanks for the comments friend.. How about all the stuff that’s made overseas and imported rather than manufactured here? Done there simply because labor costs are lower than here which drives the mfg overseas and drags our income down to overseas levels (while raising theirs). The big equalizer is a work and is working at the expense of our standard of living.
The only thing here that grows and grows is Gov. and they do their part to cut our standard of living as well..
Have a great day!!
muck
Muck –
What has happened is that consumption has increased via debt. Manufacturing in the US has not decreased – but consumption of manufactured goods has increased, funded by debt. Jobs were not shipped overseas, but were rather created overseas as a result of the trillions and trillions of dollars of both public and private debt.
Do not fall into the trap that manufacturing jobs were sent overseas. That was not the case. As I have explained many times, manufacturing as a % of GDP is unchanged for many decades. That means manufacturing has not fallen. Exports remain enormous. It is just that American sheeple now buy even more stuff, augmentng US produced goods with cheap foreign goods financed by debt.
So why do car companies manufacture cars five minutes over the border in Mexico and Canada? Why are Mexico and Canada fighting so hard to continue to be allowed to assemble cars using chinese parts into the United States? Tariffs are the answer. Tariffs were always the answer
Puebla, Nuevo Leon and San Luis Potosi’ are hardly 5 minutes over the border in Mexico. While Mexico’s location is an advantage, it still has to compete with China on price. I doubt they arbitrarily use Chinese parts if any, they work under contract for many car companies. Your hyperventilating, Starbeast, are your nails blue?
Star – it is beyond me that people cannot get the very simple, and basic, logic at play here.
1) US manufacturing GDP is unchanged over the decades. That is indisputable proof positive that manufacturing output is unchanged and that jobs have not been shipped overseas.
2) the balance of trade has changed. There are now more imports. If we are producing the same, but importing more, there is only one conclusion: we are consuming more manufactured goods.
3) these excess, imported, goods can be paid for in various ways: 1) via debt, or 2) by sacrificing purchases in other areas, 3) through increases in real wages being spent on extra goods.
Trying to say that cheap labor has taken jobs flies in the face of the pure evidence and data. Has competition perhaps driven down wages in the US? Quite possibly. Has competition made the US more efficient, causing jobs to be lost to that happening? Absolutely.
The proof that jobs have been lost does not exist. At most you can say that the extra consumption occurring should be of US made goods, and that by buying overseas goods we have not created more US jobs. But those two things are not the same thing.
Balance of trade is negative by around $500 billion a year, by memory. Generally, that would imply labor fontent of $125 billion. How many jobs would $125 billion create if those exces goods were purchased at home instead of abroad? That would be around 1.25 million jobs, plus flow-on. So say maybe 4 or 5 million jobs. That would be good to have, for sure.
Your tariff suggesting is ridiculous. I have told you before – the US exports around a trillion dollars of high tech goods a year. Tariffs would hurt that. Further, tarifs will reduce quality of manufacture and reduce increases in efficiency.
The result is that the US would fall further and further behind its international competition, who would in the end make better quality goods more efficiently than the US does. That is a very very bad scenario for the US.
The answer is for Americans to buy American made willingly. I have posted links to si es listing where that can be done? Are you and others using it?
Probably not. You would rather tear the guts out of the future by removing incentive for companies to provide quality and to improve efficiency.
Take a look at why Japan was able to get a foothold. The US automakers were producing crap, and were bent over by the unions, a price they are still paying, because of lack of competition. Tariffs would see a similar scenario occur.
But no, you would rather the government intervene, rather than expecting sheeple do the correct thing. Governments never get it right. And should stay out of this stuff.
Dear Muck–The iron Law of Diminishing Returns coupled with expanding government has destroyed every civilization on the planet, and ours will be no exception. In this favorable warm era, agricultural production is up, but because the topsoil is worn out in many places, the actual nutrient content is way down. Fresh water aquifers are depleting rapidly. Only 11% of the oil reserves produced last year were replaced. But government is ever expanding…Unless very strong measures are taken, and soon, the US and most of the West will collapse into 3d world sh*tholes in the next 50 years…
off topic guys but i haven’t seen it anywhere else–
there’s been a school shooting in ft lauderdale–i heard 14 kids are dead–
https://patch.com/florida/carrollwood/s/gcut4/florida-school-shooting-numerous-fatalities-official-says?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_term=weather&utm_campaign=alert
The last glacial maximum lasted 11,000 years, mini glacial periods last 1200 year spans. I HAVE BEEN talking long term Muck.
China has gone to the full blown imperialist side and is in the process of colonizing Africa, Pakistan, Jamaica and other countries. They are doing it to move their populations in and the indigenous out.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/02/magazine/is-china-the-worlds-new-colonial-power.html
http://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/why-cpec-may-make-pakistan-a-complete-colony-by-2030/668856/
http://www.jaimacaobserver.com/latestnews/Bunting_insists_Chinese_taking_over_Jaimaca?profile=0
http://www.invisiblealiens.com/are-africa-and-jamaica-being-colonized-by-china/
there ain’t 2 billion people in China.
Rob – you go count them and get back to Us. See you in a thousand years or so! 🙂
All I am saying is the number is wrong. 600 or so million people are pretty hard to misplace or hide. Anyways that is all I have right now.
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Rob – I was just kidding. Whatever the number is, it is yuge!
Yeah kinda figured. Anyways I read this post by ole muck and my first thought was he seems just a little bit down on things. Just a bit…Geeze even for doom porners this Part Trois has all the threads of a great wet blanket.
His tone reminds me of scene from Monty Python movie
I mean after reading that how can I be pissed off at anyone. That essay was so depressing it makes a fella wish he wuz riding on that cart. I mean dem folks are the lucky ones cuz they’re already dead..
Maybe there should props on what is going to be topic of Part IV.
I am going with NASA and a trip to da moon..
Stop complaining.
Sure why not, life is good but its damn hard after reading this. Which was one long guilt trip that we folk are screwing up da werld fer da youngins’
and China’s pop is declining. Their one-child policy has left them with one of the lowest TFR’s on the planet of just 1.2. It takes a 2.1 just to maintain a stable, replacement level population.
Europe, the United States, China, Russia–native populations are well below replacement rates. The US population would be in steep decline if we hadn’t added 37 million LEGAL immigrants since 2000 ad tens of millions more illegal. Much of Europe is gentrified and their immigration verses native fertility rates have already ensured a demographic change—done deal–Germany will not be German in 50 years, it is already too late ( just as 1 example).
Meanwhile African, Indian and other shithole breeders are up to 5+ kids for every 2 adults— short of a global plague, war or some calamity of biblical proportions, the future is brown.
@javelin: I’m afraid you’re right, more’s the pity..
How many aborted white fetuses have contributed to this dire prognosis? The Chinese imposed limits. In America, population control was achieved through propaganda, legal abortion and the pill, not law.
EC
My son told me today that his five year old explained he can see into the past and the future. Then proceeded to draw pictures of airplanes and tanks from WWI, then airplanes and tanks from WWII, then airplanes and missiles we will use to fight the aliens that bring about WWIII. Kinda spooky for a five year old.
However manufacturing jobs leave the US is immaterial (although fascinating when Llpoh does the math, cause maff is HARD) jobs are disappearing and if people can’t get a job and the biggest export we have is inflation to the rest of the world, mooslums see us as weak thanks to progs, and the peak of a 4th turning, I can see the prospect for WWIII as a very real possibility.
I’d like to see those drawings- he might be a seer. Anyhow, this article is right on! Overpopulation is THE issue of our times. Whatever else you do, tell yung (sic)people to consider the next 7 generations .
overpopulation is easily handled by death
What a cheerful thought! But I expect before the end of the oncoming downturn you are probably right…
Surfer, are you some sort of Santa Muerte enthusiast? While it is said that Moozies love death, Santa Muerte followers appeal to her (yes, death is embodied by a female) for favors and pay tribute for their safety and healing. The bible mentions death as an entity along with the devil but death has always been painted as a silent, implacable and impartial foe. Even in movies like Scream, death never speaks – except by phone, but then, it may be a agent.
EC
Muck,
Enjoyed your article, and agree with most of it; glad to see you back on track after your global warming brain fart.
I wanted to let you know that I’m also an engineer, retired, living on the northern plains after working for about 30 years all over the globe.
I loved your story about Kwajalein Atoll, I myself spent a few weeks in the mid nineties working as a contractor on the radar installations on Roi Namur, across the lagoon north of Kwajalein. They were great times. I snorkeled on the barrier reef there, played jungle golf, and wandered around all the intact Japanese bunkers. The actor Lee Marvin landed on Roi Namur as a 19 year old Marine.
As small as Kwajalein is, Roi Namur is even smaller, about one square mile. Barely room for an airstrip.
I loved my time there, and on Kwajalein, and it’s a shame more people can’t experience it, mostly just military.
is there any surf there?
@NtroP: Small world, isn’t it. I supervised the Facilities section on Roi for 5 years mid-to-late ’70s and was the Optics Section Head for KMR on my second tour out there in ’94-’96.
Loved every minute of it . (Not the work so much as where and when we were there!)
To bad it’ll all be wasted investment in another 50 years (or less)..
And surfaddict: Not to ride on! Big reefs to enjoy watching the breakers crash but you really wouldn’t want to get tangled up in those!
muck
Reading these latest Muck posts reminds me of the famous quote from the guy at the U.S. Patent Office in the late 1800’s: “Whatever can be invented, has already been invented.”
Muck ‘lost’ me when he stated that the Marshall Islands would be underwater in a mere 50 years. This means that in 5 years, they will be 10% gone. I reckon not.
I once was lost, but now am found
T’was blind but now I see
This trilogy proves that doom porn ingested daily does permanent damage. Deprogramming is advised.
Muck, you are on the entertainment planet, there are unbelievable things on the horizon. The next first turning will bring a glorious renaissance. I would bet Full Retard’s life on it. 🙂
Your optimism is refreshing.
@BL: But can we survive this ongoing 4th Turning without too many casualties?
muck
Muck- This is something I have learned over a long lifetime of study and research. In the simplest terms, we volunteer for the things that happen in our lifetime (most of the time).
It is possible that many could be lost to nuclear war or famine or a multitude of other events that we cannot control. Will humans survive? I believe the answer is YES !!
All is not lost Muck, enjoy the time you have left here and love the people who are dear to you.
I wish I could tell you many truths, but alas… they are better left under my hat.
Most natural processes ARE NOT linear. It is extremely likely that ALL natural processes ARE NOT LINEAR.
In an interesting and frightening example (fictional) : If there was a rainstorm that doubled its rainfall every minute — into a stadium holding 50,000 people and 32 feet tall — and the stadium became totally full of water at some point, so that everyone who remained was drowned — HERE IS THE QUESTION :
If there was only ONE FOOT of water in the stadium at some point, (remember it´s doubling the rate of fill every minute) how many minutes before the stadium became full to the top ?
1 foot becomes 2 in the first minute; 2 becomes 4 in the second minute; 4 becomes 8 in the 3rd minute; then 8 becomes 16 in the 4th minute; then, by the end of minute 5 the stadium is 32 feet deep . . . . time to call home on the cellphone to say goodbye forever. If you can keep your head above water long enough !
When there is merely one foot of water in the stadium, you may think you have plenty of time to leave, but 5 minutes IS NOT ENOUGH TIME to evacuate 50,000 people from a stadium.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3163164/
SnowieGeorgie
” … into a stadium holding 50,000 people and 32 feet tall”
No humans are 32 feet tall. Even Goliath was only about 9 feet tall.
Your question is a variation of an old one —– would you rather have $5 million dollars now or start with a penny that’s doubled every day for 31 days? Well, every binary programmer knows that 2^31 is a yuger number than 5 mil.
Poor ol’ Muck. You dismiss and denigrate any views not precisely in line with your own, unable to see your own myopicy through your own cycloptic views. If you just study modern history, back to the “dark ages” you’ll find that global weather cycles drive population MUCH more than any human controls or interventions can ever hope to. During the decades prior to the Dark Ages, higher temperatures (higher than today) allowed agriculture to flourish and populations to explode world wide. This ended this the period called the dark ages. Growing seasons changed dramatically, deseases that affected both humans and crops, and yes wars, served to drastically reduce populations to levels that could be sustained in the new environment. This has happened mutliple times over the Earth’s long history, and as a matter of fact glaciation periods tend to last MUCH longer than the warmer interglacial periods.
Your linear thinking, regardless of how comforting or discomforting is may be to you, is not how nature works. Mankind may face huge challenges in the future, as a matter of fact I’m quite sure they will, but those challenges will NOT be caused by “Man-made Global Warming”, and overpopulation is something that Mother Nature takes care of in her own way. Be careful what you wish for.
@Gilnut: Oh, Bullshit.. I’ve had my mind changed for me thousands of time when someone comes up with a different story and can prove it. I’ve spent my life learning, discarding the BS and trying to hold on to the straight scoop.
I think the straight scoop can vanish like a flash with some scientific proof that the straight scoop ain’t so straight after all!
muck
Reckon I’d take the 5 mil if it’s in folding cash…
At my age I’d blow my guts out of my asshole trying to haul all those pennies to the liquor store.
$1 in pennies is 250 grams. You could get a decent bottle of bourbon for $40.
Therefore, you would have to carry 10 kilograms, or about 22 pounds.
No problem.
There is actually an authoritative voice on the subject… so while the short term(couple a hundred years) is anyone’s guess, the long term(1000 years and more) is certain – a grand new age.
https://www.urantia.org/urantia-book/read-urantia-book-online
The actually quote is in paper 195
And in the famous words of George Carlin “BULL SHIT”
I came across this on another blog, Silver Bear, and wanted to share it here, but not post it. It is a real genius video…
I hope someone sees the parallel with both Independence Day music and tone and the patriotic imagery as brilliant.
I hope and pray his sincerity is genuine. He discusses the meeting on the tarmac with Loretta Lynch around 9 minutes and discusses how the FBI could not be trusted. It is almost prophetic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=130&v=XbenEPuYBIQ
Virtually every country currently lives beyond the sustainability of the planet. Billions of us can’t be supported. The choices ahead are grim, the reality will be painful, very painful.
https://goodlife.leeds.ac.uk/countries/#Bolivia
While I agree with you steve, wait a while.
I’ll have another piece in the mill that shows why free trade and capitalism are – in the longer term – the death nell of prosperity. Then watch the monkeys on TBP jump up and down about that!
muck
Knell.
Our inheritors will be machines. No food needed, no meds, none of that. Just live forever. Hell, survive a volcanic eruption or world wide dust bowl…no fucks given that day.
Currently, five percent of the world’s population (the US) consumes 25 percent of its resources.
Does anyone think that is sustainable? Does anyone really believe that the poorer nations will accept that forever? Does anyone believe that there are sufficient natural resources for everyone on the planet to consume at the rate the US does?
The standard of living is going to fall, and fall substantially. There is no way this dichotomy can last in perpetuity.
LLpoh- I double, triple dog dare you to watch films of China and Japan from 70-80 years ago. Just do it.
We are the example of modern life to the planet in the last 100 years, they are being brought into the new age of information and automation and prosperity as compared to the films to which I referred.
We have been given the good life, other countries want that life, so what if we are demoted to a less extravagant existence . People are not that happy when they have too much, you left so I’m guessing you were not that thrilled here in the land of over indulgence.
The elevation of other people on this planet had to happen, we had to send jobs to get them going. China in turn is spending massive amounts of money on roads and infrastructure in countries that are in great need of modernization, not out of the goodness of their hearts but they are making the effort. There will be a ROI for the Chinese but, the leg up for the populations will be important going forward.
Bea, the America you describe did not exist prior to 1900. Take a look at a parabolic chart and it describes the ascent of American technology. Things really got going after 1900. America hasn’t tried to keep these things to itself. It has shared with the world and the world eagerly adopted tv, radio, airplanes…Still, the modernization of the major civilizations has been almost concurrent, in real time.
A lot of these things seem new but they were prognosticated from Dick Tracy to The Jetsons. Prof Pangloss fretted way back then about oil depletion, burgeoning populations and limits to growth.
Back in the 60’s, Newsweek talked about the darker face of America 50 years in the future, it ain’t a new thing, jack, it’s physics 101 – put milk and chocolate in a glass and soon the color is darker than the milk and lighter than the chocolate. But, but, they’re not like us! So what? I heard cockroaches will replace humans one day. Nobody frets that they’re not like us.
EC
Not cockroaches, tardigrades.
Indestructible little bastards.
first 2 parts proved the author’s “reason deficiency”.
pointless waste of time, reading/listening to crazies.
any one read a good book lately?
Zero chance humans survive 1000 years. Read the Bobiverse books. That’s about the most optimistic future if we don’t get completely wiped by AI.
great series.
Some mix of possibilities will become results. If socialism / communism wins, the next Dark Ages will be endless misery and suffering for all but a few. If we can get out from under the Deep State, things will be better – but not necessarily rosy. The population will shrink to one that can be supported by the available resources – as utilized by the existing technologies. What those resources are discovered to be (and remember uranium was a laboratory curiosity a hundred years ago) and what those technologies are discovered to be (and remember crude oil refining continued to be improved long past the 1950s) is a huge variable: should fusion become feasible, we have hydrogen in the oceans for centuries. Should the climate turn to global cooling (as seems likely) starvation is likely to claim nearly all those outside the tropics. In short, probably the same old same old; mankind remaining its worst enemy, in one fashion or another.