Trump didn’t think this one through.
Guest post by Robert Gore at Straight Line Logic
What does President Trump hope to accomplish by withdrawing the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal? Does he want to go to war? Does he want to renegotiate the deal? Is he hoping sanctions stir so much unrest in Iran that its citizens overthrow the government?
Regardless of Trump’s goals, the withdrawal decision rests on a series of tactical errors and mistaken assumptions. He is overestimating US strength and underestimating that of its adversaries. His strategy has far too many moving parts. The risk that one or more fail is much higher than he apparently believes.
Trump may think he understands the Middle East and that he can trust his allies there. He’s wrong on both counts. The Middle East is a welter of ancient enmities and alliances, tribalism, sectarian strife, greed, duplicity, and intrigue (it’s not all that different from Washington) that nobody fully comprehends. Things are almost never as they appear. One categorical statement can be made: you put your own interests first or you don’t survive.
Saudi Arabia, the other Sunni Gulf states, and Israel have formed an alliance of convenience against their common enemy, Shiite Islam. Saudi Arabia is Sunni, Iran is Shiite, and the two countries have historically been the most powerful in the Middle East, vying for influence and dominance.
The alliance dreams of replacing the governments of Shiite Iran, Iraq, and Syria (Shiites are a minority in Syria, but Bashar al-Assad is Alawite, a Shiite sect) with Sunni satrapies. Next best is chaos and terror in those countries to keep them weak. The Sunnis, with the tacit support of Israel, bankrolled al Qaeda and ISIS to further their goals of chaos and regime change in Syria and Iraq
The United States has been duped into the alliance. There are no good reasons for the US to become involved in the Middle East’s toxic internecine rivalries. Israel can take care of itself, the US has its own oil, and even if it didn’t, the petro-states have to sell theirs to someone.
The US government has never articulated a coherent rationale for its Middle Eastern involvement, because there is none. It has sown the discord and destruction the Sunnis and Israel desire, enriched US defense and intelligence contractors, and fueled neoconservative pipe dreams of a “stable” (i.e. US-dominated) Middle East, all at a huge cost in blood, money, moral standing, destabilizing refugee flows, and terrorist blowback.
Nothing screams “duped” like Trump citing Benjamin Netanyahu in his Iran Nuclear Agreement withdrawal speech. Netanyahu lied in 2003 when he swore Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and assured the world a US invasion would be the best thing that ever happened to the Middle East. Netanyahu got what he wanted—Saddam Hussein deposed and Iraq subjugated at no cost to Israel. The US got stuck with the tab, which it’s still paying. After his Iraq whopper, Netanyahu should be held in the same regard as the boy who cried wolf. The rest of the world does, ignoring Netanyahu’s “evidence.” Much of it was old news, and Mossad is a proficient document fabricator. As for the US, fool me once….
Back to the original question: what does Trump hope to accomplish? Even if Trump were as stupid and crazy as his most demented critics claim (he’s not, not by a long shot), he wouldn’t be so stupid and crazy as to actually want to go to war with Iran. After the inglorious succession of Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria, you don’t attack a nation that is larger, more populated, more economically advanced, and a tougher military challenge than any of those prior targets. You especially don’t attack when that nation’s big brothers are Russia and China.
Trump’s bluffing. He’s trying to give the bluff more credibility by embracing figures who may be just stupid and crazy enough to want a war with Iran: Netanyahu, Saudi Arabian crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, and Trump’s largest campaign contributor, Sheldon Adelson (who once said Iran should be nuked). Iran, Russia, and China will call his bluff.
Iran has huge oil and natural gas reserves and China is the world’s largest importer. As part of the de-dollarization offensive against the reserve currency, Russia and Iran accept payment for their oil in yuan. Iran is a geographic and commercial linchpin of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Russia and China are involved in Iranian development and infrastructure projects and sells arms to the Iranian military. They will not sit still for a US war and regime change operation directed at their ally.
There are three main objections to the Iran nuclear deal. Obama’s sleight of hand in getting the deal—which is not a treaty—through Congress still rankle. The deal’s 10 and 15-year sunset clauses makes it a moratorium on nuclear development, not a permanent ban. And the inspection provisions do not allow for inspections of certain military facilities where Iran could be surreptitiously developing a bomb.
The procedural objections are valid, but do not impinge on the tactical merits of Trump’s withdrawal. If Iran considers itself no longer bound by the deal, withdrawal brings forward the sunset clause to the date of the withdrawal. That means Iran could restart its nuclear program today and, if Netanyahu’s warnings are correct, have a bomb in a year or two. Iran would also kick out the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, so the JCPOA signatories would lose even the “imperfect” inspection and monitoring capabilities they had under the agreement.
Trump would only risk bringing the objectionable sunset dates forward and losing the JCPOAs inspection and monitoring capabilities if he thought he could win a “better,” more stringent deal through renewed sanctions, threats of war, upheaval within Iran, and renegotiation. It’s a variation on his North Korea strategy, which may produce some sort of breakthrough agreement with that nation.
However, Trump’s negotiating position is weaker than Obama’s when the JCPOA was signed. The US has lost the war in Syria against the same alliance it would go up against in Iran. Sanctions have become the US’s main non-military weapon. Germany, France, and Great Britain may fall in line, but they’ll be hurt economically if they do. If they don’t, sanctions won’t work.
There’s no chance Russia and China will observe them. With Turkey, which helped Iran evade the last round of sanctions, they will help it evade the new ones. China will buy Iran’s oil and natural gas, providing it with yuan and perhaps gold reserves outside the US-dominated global payments system. The BRI will go on, building links from Iran to the rest of Eurasia. Iran is not North Korea, and with the support of its big brothers has far more ability to stand up to Trump.
Whether or not any of the other JCPOA signatories implement sanctions, they probably will not support a more stringent agreement. It would be a classic case of rewarding what they regard as Trump’s bad behavior. The Europeans are annoyed and Russia and China certainly won’t play ball.
If Trump doesn’t get his new agreement, there are yawning downsides. Iran may continue to abide by the JCPOA if sanctions are evaded or rejected by the Europeans. There would then be no willingness among the signatories to renegotiate and no need to do so. Trump will have done nothing but hasten the world’s transition from US unipolar dominance and humiliate himself.
Or Iran may kick out the inspectors and try to build a bomb, the outcome Trump thought he was preventing. He would then have to decide whether to wage a war that could draw in the world’s major powers and engulf the Middle East.
Trump is overplaying a weak hand. There’s no 4D chess here; he just hasn’t thought this one through. His gesture pleases Israel, Saudi Arabia, and neoconservatives back home, but it will be Trump and the United States, not his “friends,” who will bear the cost of failure.
“Saudi Arabia is Sunni, Iran is Shiite, and the two countries have historically been the most powerful in the Middle East, vying for influence and dominance.”
This is nonsense. Up until oil was discovered in the 1930’s, the Arabian peninsula was a backwater, so much so that none of the various empires that have ruled the middle east, including nearly half a dozen Persian Empires, none even bothered to conquer it. Arabia was home to bedouins, sand and date palms and, oh yeah, frankincense, but not much else. While today poor, in ancient times Yemen was much more important historically.
I agree with Mr. Gore
Gore is right in the sense that the Sunni/Shia divide is almost as old as Islam itself. One of the Ottomans began one of his campaigns by beheading 1000 Shia.
I cringed at that poorly worded statement also Z– the Saudis were nothing before high grade “sweet crude” was discovered under the burning sands of Arabia. Maybe the Persians, Ottomans and to some lesser extent the Kurds/Medes, but definitely no “historical” influence or domination by the arabs….
Can’t argue with you here, Zarathustra and javelin. Better wording would have been something along the lines suggested by philly cheese: The Sunni and Shia sects have been battling each other for over a millenium in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia currently leads the Sunnis, and Iran currently leads the Shiites.
Thank you for highlighting my error.
Great article Robert and I think you’re right in that I don’t see what we gain by Trump’s withdrawal.
I would point out one flaw and that is… “JCPOA signatories”. There were no signatures on any document by any of the countries who participated in the “agreement”. No legal binding on any country to do anything. See many current articles including on Greg Hunter’s USA Watchdog showing the 2015 letter to Congressman Mike Pompeo from the Obama State Department that says just that. Otherwise good thought process… Chip
Biggest mistake Trump could make, short of an outright invasion of Iran or pressing the nuc button. This was a 2,000% political decision to save Trump presidency via Jewish support. Trump may have saved himself, at the long term expense of the USA.
Let’s hope and pray that immediately after mid-term elections, Trump suddenly “comes to his senses” and backs off with the threats, etc.
JT – Respectfully disagree, the USA ‘Jewish’ vote has, is and will continue to vote ~85% Democratic, even if the next Democrat candidate is as bad for Jews and was Obama. Bernard Goldberg explained it best, American Jews first priority is vote for the Democratic party, second priority for their religion. That explains why they voted against their own religious interest.
Thus Trump will not benefit from the Jewish vote.
The problem we have with trump is that he was funded by the rottinchild kahzarian jew in his biz carreir. So now when the rottinchild tells trump jump. He says how high? and the I got an idea it was the rottin one that placed him in that office. We see he then chose the wacko’s bolton,pompeo, adleson and other jew war lovers.
Their is a site called “now the end begins” Its a site where all the followers falsely belive that the jews are Gods chosen. They belive they can curry favor with the Lord by praising Israel. I had posted on the site that Israel is not the Israel of the bible. I also asked why the Satanyahoo can murder his neibhors and get a free pass because he is chosen? They are not our friends. The bad news is the trumpster is in bed with them
So how am I justified in believing that RG is an expert on Middle East policy and strategy? What justifies Gore’s belief that he just plain knows better than Trump and every expert in the State Department, U.S. military, and even the intelligence agencies? Is there any evidence that RG has any idea of what he doesn’t know? On one hand RG states that he knows Trump isn’t stupid, then he implies that Trump is incredibly stupid. This is a non-credible article all the way around.
I don’t claim to be an expert on the Middle East. However, most of the “experts” in the State Department, US military (including Trump’s Secretary of Defense), and the intelligence agencies did not want the US to abrogate the JCPOA. My analysis started with one question and tried to work through the answers. It’s based on generally available information. I’m well aware that I don’t have all the information; I never do.
At times I have attributed to Trump a shrewdness that far surpasses his critics. This just isn’t one of those times. I didn’t say or even imply that Trump is “incredibly stupid.” I just said he’s making a mistake this time around. Even geniuses make mistakes.
So far and until Europe shits or gets off the pot, the EU has said that they will now purchase Iranian oil in Euros, not USD. This could be the beginning of a flood of Eurodollars coming home. Oorah!
Of course that would spike inflation. All we have lacked til now is velosity.
Robert….of all the writings on JCPOA I have read, yours is the most comprehensive and on the spot.
Trump did not leave the JCPOA as a result of coherent rationale, it was demanded by his (((owners))), the ones that bailed him out.
Yes, it is a bluff. Israhell is talking to Putin. Russia is talking to Assad to achieve a political deal. The whole idea is to remove Iran from Syria so they can’t support Lebanon.
This time, EU will go their own way and ignore US sanctions.
How about the simple and obvious explanation. The Evil Joo Bibi is actually correct and Iran is continuing its nuclear program aided and funded of the $150B of frozen assets released to Iran by Obama. So instead of waiting to confront Iran later, better to do so now before they truly have nuke warheads and the missiles to deliver them. You guys hate jews with a white hot passion, but that pales i comparison to how much the Iranians hate them. Given the capability there is zero doubt in my mind that Iran will nuke Israel, America etc….Shia Islam is an apocalyptic death cult, where the end of the world ushers in their paradise. Kind of a dangerous combination with Nuclear weapons and missiles. Even little Rocket Man despite being a psychotic despot values survival over martyrdom.
What Mr. Gore and others (blinded by Jew Hate) seem to miss is that sometimes the bad really folks really do want to hurt you, kill you and eliminate you from the face of the earth.
Yes the Saudis are in an alliance with the Jew, seems like if they can hold their nose and do so, maybe we should asking ourselves…..what do they know about Iran that we don’t?
Now personally I like the Iranians I have met a lot, my brother even married one. But the Mad Mullahs are not the Iranian people and are much more likely to launch a nuke than you might want to admit.
That is the implied position in this article and all the other similar articles…..Iran is not attacking anybody, Iran doesn’t want war, etc. Hezbollah has 150,000 missiles aimed at Israel and Iran directly killed or maimed 2,000 US troops in Iraq with explosively formed penetrator IEDs….I haven’t forgotten either of those two facts.
1938 alert, appeasement didn’t work then and it won’t work now, though the usual Jew haters and ducks will write the same articles.
Complete horseshit. Shia islam is a million times more advanced and humane than the wahabbi shit that breeds all of the head choppers. Name a shia terrorist or terrorist group. Sound of crickets…
The entire Shiite belief system is terrorism–12th imam, Muhamad-al-Mahdi who will emerge after Shia creates a global apocalypse, the need for global turmoil and misery for their belief system to work and they have backed themselves into a corner because chronologically, the 12th imam must currently be alive–so they need this global apocalypse started ASAP…..Shiites are off their friggin rockers.
Z, I understand you are of Iranian/Persian descent and proud of your cultural heritage ( as any non-leftist human is) but even you must admit that the State religion in a theocratic society who yearns for an imminent apocalypse could be seen as a bit “terrorizing” to those who aspire for a future for humanity….
“The entire Shiite belief system is terrorism–12th imam, Muhamad-al-Mahdi who will emerge after Shia creates a global apocalypse, the need for global turmoil and misery for their belief system to work and they have backed themselves into a corner because chronologically, the 12th imam must currently be alive–so they need this global apocalypse started ASAP…..Shiites are off their friggin rockers.”
Then so are christians. Both believe in the return of a savior that will usher in an age of peace.
In the case of the twelver shia, the Mahdi will return hand in hand with Jesus.
If you believe this is some sort of doomsday cult then you are seriously misinformed. I’m not justifying it. I think it is pure fantasy but major religions have been based on less and it is harmless in that it threatens nobody and promotes a positive view of the future (certainly more than the christian view of the rapture where Jesus will only gather the “believers.” The Mahdi on the other hand excludes nobody from his paradise on earth, hence his partnership with the “son of god.”
Well on the other hand, maybe the Jews are left out, but they probably deserve it. lol
You mean the heretical Christian view of the rapture. This “rapture” stuff had never been held for the first 17 centuries of Christianity.
As far as I can remember, no Christian is obligated to do anything to support, prolong or hasten the End Times – Revelations sets forth some events that will occur then, but no one is required to make them happen. Do the Shia bear an obligation to hasten the return of the Mahdi? If so, that’s a feature not in Christianity as I was taught it.
I guess one man’s terror group is another’s glorious freedom fight….. Hezbollah.
I want to get this straight.
IsraHell supported ISIS and al-Qaeda (and other ‘rebels’ who turned and ran with the US supplied weapons to ISIS and al-Qaeda) to kill innocent civilians and beheadings for photo ops.
The U.S. supported ISIS and al-Qaeda (and other ‘rebels’ who turned and ran with the US supplied weapons to ISIS and al-Qaeda) to kill innocent civilians and beheadings for photo ops.
Seems to me Iran is the bad guy.
The U.S. had NATO bomb Libya into the stone age to exact Regime Change in Libya. Most don’t even know why Obama/Hillary did this terrorist act. Half a Million Libyan citizens died, but now the remaining citizens have a wonderful U.S. democracy. Success.
But, Iran is the bad guy.
Iraq and Afghanistan – more good work by the U.S.
But, Iran is the bad guy; Iran should just stop with all their Regime Change that kills millions.
I read about the first sentence. So for all of you TBPer’s how in the hell do you withdraw from a non deal. There was no deal. Did you all get that? There was nothing signed. Not by Kerry, or Obama or the European country’s, Not even the Iranians signed anything. There was no treaty, no executive finding, no executive order, NOTHING! The only deal was a plane load of cash delivered to Iran. Hell the Iranians threatened to reveal who got bribed to make the non-deal if Trump withdrew form it. HUH? Withdraw from what? Wake the fuck up. Usually you folks are cogent on the facts of an argument but this time you are bloviating about a deal that never existed in the first place.
I was wondering if anyone was going to bring up that point. The so-called “deal” was verbal only. And how many times Iran has kept their word on verbal deals in the last forty or so years? Zip . . . zero . . . nada . . .
As for the politics, I don’t have a clue.
Oh and how many times has the evil empire usa kept their word on any deal. Signed , verbal, treaties, none are safe in the hands of the great satan.
The one and only real point about this so-called deal is that there wasn’t one. How and why the media keeps treating it as if there were some sort of signed treaty beats the heck out of me. The media is selling a narrative and people are buying it.
Olderndirt.
This is totally wrong on so many levels that I can’t even begin to respond.
Somebody should go and read a history book.
Can someone explain why Iran being an oil rich country need to develop nuclear energy ?
Not “nuclear energy” nuclear weapons. They need them to kill a shit-load of Jews. Just ask them. They basically stand around screaming “Death to the Jews. Death to the USA!!!” Non-stop….
If the Iranians expelled the atomic inspectors, nothing would change. The “agreement has an inspection regime” that is worthless. It is naive to think that the Iranians are not developing atomic weapons as we speak. To say they are not sounds more like Al Gore than Robert Gore.
As far as sunni shia war we can only hope and hope it is a really bad one with millions of casualties.
“Death to Israel Death to Israel Death to Israel” is it any wonder that Israel would want to eliminate that threat?
overthecliff
“What does President Trump hope to accomplish by withdrawing the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal? ” ———- article
Great question. I honestly believe the answer is that HE himself has no idea. By that I mean — did he make this decision on his own, or is he being guided by his advisors. OK, so you say all Presidents rely on advisors. True, but as one President said; “The buck stops here.” And, frankly, with Trump I believe the buck stops somewhere else. He’s not so much being guided as he is being herded.
So, a great followup question to Gore’s is; WHO is behind this decision? As often is the case, such a question can be answered by doing two things; 1) follow the money, 2) who benefits?
And when I consider that one of Trump’s closest advisors is his Joo son-in-law, not to mention the neocons and Israel lovers on his staff, well … following the money and benefits leads me to believe that mostly (((one group))) was respo0nsible for Trump’s decision. Can you guess (((who)))?