The Game Of Chance

Guest Post by The Zman

Chance plays an underappreciated role in human affairs. Whether it is the weather or human error, unexpected events often change the course of history. The death of Ogedei Khan in 1242 halted the Mongol invasion of Europe. Constantine having a strange dream prior to the Battle of the Milvian Bridge, advanced the cause of Christianity in Europe. The shifting winds at Salamis allowed the Greeks to defeat the superior Persian navy. Chance is often a player in human affairs.

A recent example is what happened in Iran. According to news reports, the experts gave Trump a list of options, with droning the general deliberately setup as the least pleasing option. For some reason, he picked that one. Maybe it is apocryphal or maybe they were just dumb about it, but the unexpected happened. Of course, the Iranian response was altered by the unexpected blunder of shooting down the passenger plane on the night of their response. No one imagined that happening.

We may be seeing a similar bit of chance in China, as she contends with what is becoming a very serious pandemic. Right now, the cause of this infection is being blamed on eating weird foods, but no one really knows. There are serious people wondering if this is not the result of some error in their bio-weapons program. The Chinese did steal coronavirus from Canada recently and we know they have a clandestine lab located in the area of the pandemic. It’s not an unreasonable suspicion.

A lot will depend on how things unfold over the next several weeks. If they are able to contain the spread and the death toll is limited, then the cause of this outbreak will not be important. The way the Chinese handled it will get the attention. On the other hand, if things get much worse, then people will want to know how this happened. Even in a big country like China, a million deaths will spawn a lot of speculation. No one is going to accept the bat stew argument or dumb luck as an excuse.

The thing is, chance often finds the raw nerve in society. For example, most Americans were always unsure about the competence of the Bush administration. The handling of the Katrina disaster confirmed in the minds of most Americans that the administration was not very competent. When Iraq started to go sideways, that lack of trust turned into a collapse in support. The public, especially conservative supporters, were unwilling to take the administration’s word for anything happening in Iraq.

Of course, the collapse of conservative support for Bush had consequences. Obama beat Clinton in large part on being an outsider. He also beat the fevered warmonger John McCain for similar reasons. It’s hard to know, but Katrina probably had more to do with putting Trump in the White House than anything else. His rise in the primary was due in large part to voters remembering the incompetence of the Bushies. An ill-timed storm did what the paleo-cons could not.

We may be about to see something similar in China. The last few decades have seen a great alteration of the country and the people. In one generation, families have gone from rural peasantry to urban middle class. The unprecedented economic boom in China has had unprecedented cultural changes. It’s also changed the nature of the ruling class as well. The combination of elements we see in modern China is not only totally new. It is untested. It has never been under pressure.

What China is today is an accidental compromise between the prosperous urban dwellers and the legacy ruling class. It just sort of happened. As long as the good times keep rolling, the new class of Chinese will tolerate the corruption and petty shenanigans of the ruling party. Dealing with crooked officials or petty tyrants harassing trouble makers is a tax people are willing to pay, when times are good. No one really knows what will happen if times stop being good.

This virus outbreak could be the big test. It really does not matter what actually caused it if the government is unable to contain it. People unhappy with the party will use the crisis as a chance to speak out against the party. That’s how rumors about the plague’s origin will emerge. Instead of blaming peasants eating bats, it will be bureaucrats experimenting with bio-weapons or perhaps experimenting on people. A crisis can easily become a vehicle for conspiracy theories about the state.

On the other hand, politics in China is fundamentally the same as politics everywhere else in the world. The people in charge of the party are at the top of a faction that is currently dominating the other factions. There is no question, for example, that there are factions unhappy with how Xi Jinping is handling trade issues with America. Some want a harder line, while others want a more conciliatory approach. A stumble in handling the pandemic could open up these riffs within the party.

Again, much will depend upon how events unfold in the coming weeks. As things stand, this virus has at least two characteristics experts predict will precede a disaster. One is the virus is contagious during the “incubation period.” This means people can spread the virus to others, weeks before they show signs of infection. This accelerates the spread, as authorities cannot react in time to quarantine the infected. Given modern travel, this is what makes this virus so concerning.

The other red flag is the mortality rate. The numbers coming out of China are mostly certainly wrong, but we have roughly 100 confirmed deaths and 3,000 cases. That’s a three percent mortality rate. The Spanish Flu was around ten percent, so this virus is not as deadly yet. That’s actually bad news, as it means the infected linger on and have a greater chance to infect new people. A quick death actually aids in quarantining a virus outbreak. More bad news for China here.

Again, nothing could come of it, but that’s how it works with chance. It is only after the fact that people see the long shadow of the unexpected event. The Persians did not grasp the significance of the skirmish at Thermopylae until they were being chased from the field at Platea. China could be on the verge of a great leap backwards, as her people turn up in hospitals with pneumonia. All the conditions are in place for chance to have a starring role in this story.

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31 Comments
Hyperborean
Hyperborean
January 28, 2020 9:02 am

When one finally realizes that the United States (incorporated 1871) is nothing but the proxy army for the Bank of International Settlements in its campaign of global financial domination, then all the stupidity since the 1960s begins to make sense. And the BIS must simultaneously destroy the United States the closer it gets to accomplishing its goal of global financial tyranny as our Frankenstein of Bretton Woods would stand as the only entity that could turn on it.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr
  Hyperborean
January 28, 2020 10:58 am

Somebody needs to read the New Testament: the Jews condemned Jesus to death on the Cross; but He Resurrected, and now has Divine Powers to whip evil Money Changers. The Portuguese, Spanish, Dutch, English all had wealth and power once. Who can really say He didn’t turn over their Bankster’s tables. In our time and country (since 1913), Communism (esp Cultural Communism) and Globalism are having a huge effect on Useful Idiots; but Trump and his Supporters are fighting back, as are several countries in Central Europe (Poland, Austria, etc). Some others are just fed up with Globalism (France, UK, etc). All the Central Banksters are massively printing currency keeping their Socialist Governments kicking the can. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates nine times after Trump was elected. That was like removing the oil drain plug from Deplorable’s cars for two years; the damage was obvious by late 2018. Banksters saying they’re sorry and putting a little oil back in won’t fix the damage. TPTB want to destroy the Economy before Nov; and not letting any Man Made Crisis go to waste, using it as an excuse to massively print Dollars to enrich and save themselves. Money printing like that always explodes as a hyperinflation “virus” on Working People (usually within two years). That can lead to a Revolution.

Hyperborean
Hyperborean
  robert h siddell jr
January 28, 2020 11:31 am

Any US politician that places his hand on that Wailing Wall is making a very public display, for you to see, that he will ultimately sell you out to his true masters. Trump is not the Messiah, he is merely the lesser of two evils presented at the last election.

My theory – Trump was enlisted and MAGA was constructed to hold the Chinese accountable to whatever promises they made to the owners of the Bank of International Settlements prior to China’s WTO entry, but the chinks have since reneged on those promises and have morphed at our expense into a global financial Frankenstein. China + India would have been the ultimate money changers wet dream, but something went awry in the last 10 years and the Orange Golem has been conscripted to ensure that (((they))) get their expected returns. Trump is playing a role but it doesn’t primarily serve you and I, it may indirectly serve us in some small way but the Federal Reserve System control structure is still in tact “same as it ever was”.

And of course, the Federal Reserve System will ultimately be nationalized when it is so irredeemable bankrupt that (((they))) have no choice but to foist those additional trillions of liabilities onto US taxpayers. That will happen when the digital Carbondollar is unveiled.

Amen.

'Reality' Doug
'Reality' Doug
  Hyperborean
January 28, 2020 12:04 pm

Bingo. The American heartland is mortally wounded, but why not use the temporary invisible to bring other powers to heel. China has aspirations to scuttle. Bin Salmon is a puppet to emasculate Muslim men with Western decadence. We could say it’s all about Isreal, but it may really be the Illuminati, Jews above Judaism and perhaps goy equally esteemed. Don’t know, but the point is not MAGA.

'Reality' Doug
'Reality' Doug
  robert h siddell jr
January 28, 2020 11:39 am

Everything is scripture to you nuts. You start of with a non sequitor about reading muh bible and then analyze everything but. How the hell does the first sentence relate to the obloviating rest? Your eternal G-d has always had absolute power. In the hands of Jesus or the Father. What’s the difference? Two aspects of the same alleged perfection. You, nuts.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr
  'Reality' Doug
January 28, 2020 12:32 pm

The article said only Bretton Woods could stand against the BIS; not true ref the NT, and explained that Jesus is the Lord of Money Changers, & God gives Jesus Power, which you know. If you’d stop kicking against the pricks (Acts 9:5 & 26:14) and start learning about Jesus, you’d be a wiser and happier man; I hope you do.

Eyes Wide Shut
Eyes Wide Shut
January 28, 2020 10:13 am

Nothing in regard to the God of the Bible has anything to do with chance.

We have to work backwards from a 2000 year or 2 day church age and Jewish separation from God in Hosea 6:1,2 beginning at the crucifixion of Jesus.
Approximately 2032 minus a 7 year 70th week of Daniel or tribulation period brings us to 2025.

Regardless of your position on the pretribulation Rapture or Rapture in general the Ezekiel 38, 39 war with Russia, Turkey, Iran and others against Israel and NWO reign of the Antichrist must begin by approximately 2025.

Everything happening in the world right now is lining up perfectly with God’s word and chance has absolutely nothing to do with it.

Choose to deny it at your own peril.

Hyperborean
Hyperborean
  Eyes Wide Shut
January 28, 2020 11:08 am

And the Devil invented dinosaurs.

I find it contradictory beyond belief that The Rapture crowd is both against the NWO Antichrist End of History (a zionist financial project), and at the same time the undisputed champions of the state of Israel (a zionist political project).

I seem to recall that in the Bible God did all the smiting, and Satan (i.e., Prometheus) did nothing but disobey God for which this kind and loving God cast Him, Adam, and Eve out of Paradise when just a good spanking would have sufficed. And we got that nasty self-awareness and self-determination in the process, no longer kept as pets in God’s zoo. Damn that Satan.

But in the end, it’s just Platonism for the people, isn’t it?

'Reality' Doug
'Reality' Doug
  Hyperborean
January 28, 2020 11:47 am

Amen! Now find the consistency. That is the ultimate truth. You give these creatures far too much credit as human beings. Platonism is philosophy. No, too high class of the mind. Opiate of the masses, my friend. They want narrative lies. Seek why and you will have the essential truth of what they are. You will not trap them in hypocrisy because they are not bound to intellectual integrity. But bound they are. They are not human like you are human. Satan is a T-Rex with an naturally giant brain, and he’s all thumbs. I thought everyone knew that.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr
  Hyperborean
January 28, 2020 12:36 pm

Zionist Christians give me a rash too.

'Reality' Doug
'Reality' Doug
  robert h siddell jr
January 28, 2020 6:04 pm

Nice terminology. I think I’ll remember that.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr
  Eyes Wide Shut
January 28, 2020 11:20 am

You pulled 2032 Out Of The Blue; what is the reason for selecting 2032? What will be the Sigh in 2025 that the Tribulation Period has begun? For your info, 2025 will be a Solar Maximum; the best weather for several years and maybe a slight pause in earthquakes and volcanoes (unless Chem-spraying, the Magnetic Pole Shift, and the New World Order screws us).

Hyperborean
Hyperborean
  robert h siddell jr
January 28, 2020 11:35 am

I still can’t decide if I am to follow the shoe or the gourd.

DinCO
DinCO
  Hyperborean
January 28, 2020 12:38 pm

What I still can’t figure and get a straight answer to is – Is it the unicorns living on the back side of the moon wearing the RED sneakers or the ones wearing the BLUE sneakers that are the evil ones? I get so confused.

DinCO
DinCO
  Hyperborean
January 28, 2020 12:40 pm

“But I’m NOT him! Don’t you understand? Go follow someone else!” [said with a British accent, of course]

'Reality' Doug
'Reality' Doug
  robert h siddell jr
January 28, 2020 11:55 am

No, I am the instrument of God’s wisdom. No, I am! No, it’s this. No, it’s that. Give me power, but it’s really God’s will, so submit to me which is Him not me. Dib bid da hibda 2032, 2032, dibida, do I hear 2038?, dibida, badi ba, do I hear 2038? dib dobidy, 2032 going once, do dibida, dobity, 2032 going twice, doba doba rapture, doba doba muh bible, do ba do ba…

comment image

Eyes Wide Shut
Eyes Wide Shut
  robert h siddell jr
January 28, 2020 12:34 pm

The 69th week of Daniel ended at the triumphal entry of Jesus in 32 AD.
God’s setting aside of Israel for their rejection of Jesus for 2 days or 2nd Peter 2000 years in Hosea 6:1,2 began at their rejection of Jesus at His crucifixion and will end at His second coming 2000 years later in approximately 2032 which coincides with the church age.
Then His 1 day or 1000 year millennial reign on Earth from the third temple in Jerusalem of Hosea 6:1,2 will begin.
The 70th week of Daniel or 7 year tribulation period of the Antichrist will be the last seven years before Jesus second coming or from approximately 2025 to 2032.

'Reality' Doug
'Reality' Doug
  Eyes Wide Shut
January 28, 2020 6:07 pm

One question: Will you accept the results of your theology on January 1st, 2033?

Eyes Wide Shut
Eyes Wide Shut
  'Reality' Doug
January 28, 2020 6:35 pm

Of my biblical interpretation, absolutely, and so will everyone else.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr
  Eyes Wide Shut
January 28, 2020 8:58 pm

I understand what you are saying now and why. If so, then 2028-29 would be the start of the Great Tribulation; that would be at the beginning of the second Solar Minimum (2031 est) of the Eddy Minimum (of this GSM). The weather and cold should be much worse than 2019 and by then there will be at least one Super Volcano to have blown, at least one mega-earthquake, and a Mini-Ice Age started in NE Canada. Again, do you know of any Sign(s) to look for the Tribulation? Is the Mark of the Beast during the Tribulation? I think the Four Horsemen are lose and about to be obvious, do you?

'Reality' Doug
'Reality' Doug
  Eyes Wide Shut
January 28, 2020 11:49 am

If you were sodomized by a police swat team, you’d claim it was G-d’s good plan. Bahhh.

'Reality' Doug
'Reality' Doug
January 28, 2020 11:34 am

Chance? Ha. You confuse style for ultimate effect. Some bitch had to be Madonna. Each generation has several for as long as this shit goes on. The murderous Constantine as Gospel hero? lol Could you lackey’s give coronavirus a rest? They own your emotions ya know. You’re not right without the power to be right. You are biologically extraneous and pretend you are central. The sun revolves around you like the Son. Your stylistic interpretations are everything. All this domesticated kibitzing is nauseating.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr
  'Reality' Doug
January 28, 2020 12:42 pm

…maybe shoe on other foot?

DinCO
DinCO
January 28, 2020 12:51 pm

Funny how most of the comments are off in the weeds somewhere. GOOD ARTICLE, ZMAN! Many unpredictable events occur (chaos theory) in life that then change the course. Even considering the things we actually have some control over, life is but a series of experiments, but ones that can never be repeated, as the initial conditions are now different. So, carry on best we can.

Hyperborean
Hyperborean
  DinCO
January 28, 2020 2:20 pm

They end up like that sometimes. At least I didn’t start off with a fake moon landing thread.

'Reality' Doug
'Reality' Doug
  DinCO
January 28, 2020 6:11 pm

The Stone Age, the Bronze Age, the Iron Age, the Information Age: this progression was in hindsight built into the earth’s crust. Achieving the progression is not a given, but it’s strictly segmented path of development is. Someone was going to invent paper, ships, medicine, chemistry, etc. People think there so special and unique.

c1ue
c1ue
January 28, 2020 3:44 pm

Meh. Very weak analysis by someone who clearly has no idea what China is about.

'Reality' Doug
'Reality' Doug
  c1ue
January 28, 2020 6:13 pm

Some people want to appear smart and take leaps of faith to get there. Oh, the faithful.

mark branham
mark branham
January 29, 2020 4:26 am

Using the bible to plot future events is like throwing bones or reading tea leaves.

Considering the damage the U.S. has inflicted on the world since WWII it would be no great leap to imagine God punishing us to remove us from world domination.

However, it must be remembered that the deep state uses the world’s most powerful nation to further it’s goals… even to the extent that ‘they’ enrich a nation in order to use them for their own purpose.

Trying to make sense of world events when we only have access to bits and pieces of truth, never allowed full knowledge of events, forces one to make leaps of faith. We no longer even know where truth lies.

Eyes Wide Shut
Eyes Wide Shut
  mark branham
January 29, 2020 6:41 am

The closer we get the clearer it all becomes.

'Reality' Doug
'Reality' Doug
  Eyes Wide Shut
January 29, 2020 11:49 am

Clearer is not truer. Duh. Labels of truth don’t make it so. You don’t know. I know you don’t know. At best you said something stupidly remedial. branhan said something intelligent. You pretend to have intellectual social standing with him. Hah.