Gaming The Election

Guest Post by the Zman

For most people who plan to vote in the upcoming election, the choice is clear and they don’t have to think about it very much. They know their guy is the right choice and the other guy represents the end of the world as we know it. There is nothing anyone could say to them to change their mind. In fact, the number of persuadable people probably rounds to zero. The issue in this election, like most elections, is which side is able to get their partisans to vote, either in person or by mail.

For dissidents it is not that easy. Once you make it to this side of the great divide you know elections are not a solution, but, at best, another opportunity to get more people heading in this direction. Supporting Trump in 2016 was about breaking the pattern so people were not as locked into the old political framing. After four years of Trump, we are faced with a new situation. Is a Trump win better for our side or is a Biden- Harris win better for our side? The answer is not obvious.

Often, our elections are the opposite of what we assume. The pull of partisan politics in a liberal democracy tends to warp the thinking of even the most cynical. In 2000 it seemed obvious that Bush was better than Gore, but in reality, Gore would have been the better choice for white Americans. Bush was the worst thing to happen to white America since the Emancipation Proclamation. Counter-intuitively, Bill Clinton was one of best presidents for white people in the 20th century.

Additionally, even dissidents can fall into the old Cold War mentality of judging candidates by their economic or foreign policy pretensions. The Democrats are the commie doves, while the Republicans are the capitalist hawks. Even at this late date, many dissidents still cling to their libertarian or conservative priors. Instead of thinking about the outcome that serves their people, they think about the outcome that serves their narrow interests as individuals. Group think is hard.

Then there is the bitter loser problem. Many people circulating on this side of the great divide were sure Trump was Hitler. When he turned out to be just another guy, they took it personally, as they personalize everything. Trump did not just get beat by the system, he deliberately finked on them. The only way to assuage their hurt feelings is to show that mean old orange man they are super mad at him. Richard Spencer, for example, is now “Bobbin for Biden” in this election.

If you can stand outside it all and just look at the two outcomes in terms of how they would serve the interests of dissidents, the choice is not so clear. The vinegar club that is now sour on Trump are right that four more years of Trump are unlikely to result in positive changes for our side. Trump is not an ideologue and he tends to personalize everything, so four more years means four more years of squabbling with illiterates on the cable chat shows, but not much else.

On the other hand, when the Left wins, they tend to make good use of their opportunity, so Biden winning means they will move the state in their direction. The most likely outcome of a Biden term in office is an orgy of globalism. Trump has caused the drive to global corporatism to stall, so the usual suspects will be eager to make up for lost time once the addle-minded Biden is in office. On the other hand, the culture war probably goes on hiatus, as it will no longer be useful to them.

Neither of those outcomes are objectively good or bad for dissidents. If you are a fatalist, then the Biden acceleration will be appealing. If you are in the camp that thinks buying time is important, then the Trump interregnum is appealing. Both of those positions miss the point. This is a culture war, so public policy only matters in regards to how it opens the culture to our arguments. In either case, the nature of the culture war changes very little, so both outcomes are a net neutral.

Now, a Trump loss would open one important avenue for us. It would reveal to those rank and file white people that the demographics have now changed and those changes are permanent. That silent majority they were sure exists is a myth. Instead, whites are effectively a minority population. Imagine Trump getting 70% of the white vote but losing the election. All that groveling to non-whites would suddenly become a bitter rebuke of the old civic nationalist politics.

On the other hand, Trump losing would be cast by Republicans as a rejection of racist and evil politics of the past. Both faces of the political class are ready for a campaign to convince those disappointed whites that the reason Trump lost is they foolishly supported a racist. Their path to redemption is to wash the feet harder. The ease with which these people convinced so many to wear their underwear on their head to ward off the virus should be a warning to the acceleration crowd.

The “win by losing” theory is like libertarianism, in that it sounds good in the classroom, but it is nonsense in the field. The fact is, Trump winning would give us more riots and mayhem, so the white awakening would probably accelerate. The fact is, more white people have become racially aware in the last three months than in the last three years, despite Trump’s groveling. There are much larger forces at work than one election, so the outcome is just one small data point.

That said, winning breeds confidence. Most of the people ready to vote Trump are more ready for the trip over the great divide than at any point in their lives. That transformation will continue, regardless of the outcome, but a little confidence never hurts. In a way, mobilizing to put Trump over the top is good practice for the sorts of politics that lie in the near future for these white people. They may not be ready to know it yet, but their pro-Trump activity is their first step into the future.

Greg Johnson pointed out, that small minds focus on people, while average minds focus on events. Great minds focus on ideas, but it is the combination of these that provides the full picture. Most of the partisan squabbling on-line about the election will be among one of those first two camps. What will matter is how this election serves the promotion of racial awareness among whites. More specifically, how will the outcome give whites confidence to look at the world racially?

The critical issue in this election is in how dissidents use it to promote their interests in their daily lives. Passing around this story to whites still trapped in the fog of old politics is more helpful than mocking those calling Harris a radical or a commie. Instead of mocking those “boomers’ trapped in the past, offer them a way forward by using this election to normalize racial politics for them. That’s the gift Biden gave us by picking Kamala Harris as his running mate.

Ultimately, the result of this election will matter very little. The demographic die is cast and there is no voting our way out of it. America will soon function like Spain after the fall of the Roman Empire. What will matter in this election and for the remaining elections is how dissidents use these opportunities to awaken white people to the reality of this age and provide a positive way forward into white identity politics. It is not about the man or the event, but about us and our ideas.

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