“The Financial Jigsaw” has been serialised here and now is replaced by this weekly “Letter from Great Britain.”
NOTE – If anyone would like an electronic copy of the complete book, I should be pleased to email a free PDF on request to: [email protected]. Also a hardcopy of the book, “The Financial Jigsaw” is available priced at £25 GBP plus P&P in A4, workbook format, bound with clear plastic covers, printed locally on demand.
This week is a classic as Boris fights the demons of an explosion of ‘cases’. Well, yeah; when you test more people, you get more cases – ‘simples’ as even an educated Meerkat will tell you, and they seem to have more intelligence than our simple-minded politicians.
It’s yet another Boris disaster when he mandated that those not isolating will be subject to fines up to £10,000. It’s a hell of a way to raise funds to support his amazing battle against a less-than dangerous flu virus.
But still he carries on regardless, all in the spirit of a Churchillian battle against the invisible odds – well it must be his own delusions, because we at the coalface know different. Anyway I can only report what the prestigious and supportive MSM are saying on the subject:
“Many regional leaders – including the mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham, and public health officials – have been arguing for months that such support was needed because people struggling to get by on low earnings believed they could not afford to self-isolate, and were not doing so. This has resulted in the virus becoming “endemic” in some deprived areas of the north of England.
From 28 September, under the emergency package announced by the prime minister last night, people will be required by law to self-isolate if they test positive or are contacted by the test and trace system as having been in contact with an infected person. Fines will start at £1,000, rising to £10,000 for “egregious”* offences and serial offenders.”
[*conspicuously and outrageously bad or reprehensible.]
In the next episode of this saga we find that Boris has been sitting in a late-night review meeting to decide exactly what to do as the virus ‘rages’ on. The fine balance of protecting those vulnerable and the needs of the economy are exercising the minds of our leaders in out-of-hours emergency meetings at No.10.
“Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, held a summit of scientists from the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) to help thrash out how to proceed. Among those also present were two Oxford University figures – Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, and Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-based Medicine.
Heneghan and Gupta have voiced caution over blanket, nationwide lockdown measures and are understood to feel strongly about the presentation of data on rising cases. They have argued for more targeted measures to protect the vulnerable, such as in care homes, so that new measures do not affect those younger people who are least at risk. There was some controversy over data showing an exponential increase in cases, such as the one showing a jump from 6,000 a day now to 50,000 in mid-October, which could lead to 200 deaths a day by the following month. Predictably, when it was presented at the media briefing by England’s chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser – who stressed it was not a forecast – it was this slide that created the headlines.”
BUT. Our virtuous police are not having any of it. This article explains why a high-ranking police officer believes that enforcing Boris’s regulations is impossible and even the ‘Bobby’ on the street would never bend to our ruler’s wishes; there is hope yet! Read more:
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/501107-rule-six-uk-covid/
AND ANOTHER BUT – THE BIG NEWS IS: LOCKDOWN! FOR 6 MONTHS!
Britain is in crisis and our politicians are between a rock and a hard place of their own making. Boris made an announcement on Tuesday which sets the pattern of the pandemic for the next six months of winter:
“Boris Johnson has warned the weary British public to summon their resolve for a tough winter ahead, as he refused to rule out a second national lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Speaking in a televised address after announcing new rules across England he appeared to suggest “freedom-loving” Britons will be to blame if more draconian restrictions are applied.
“If people don’t follow the rules we have set out, then we must reserve the right to go further,” he said. The new restrictions for England include a 10pm closing time for pubs and restaurants, a renewed ban on indoor team sports, and stricter rules on mask-wearing. They come in addition to the “rule of six” limiting the size of social gatherings, and a complex patchwork of local restrictions across the UK”. Read more:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/22/johnson-refuses-to-rule-out-second-covid-19-lockdown
SO: The scientists have been captured by our politicians for their nefarious ends. Read this article from credible and Nobel Laureate prestigious scientists who confirm exactly this. Before you do, though – bear in mind this quote: “Dr Chaand Nagpaul, chair of the British Medical Association, criticised the government for not going far enough.” This insane guy needs to be nailed down and run out of town IMO! Especially in the light of this revealing article:
“We thought what Professor Levitt said in refuting both these claims in this meeting were so important that I have made a transcript of his statements and publish them here. Links to Professor Levitt’s data analysis of the coronavirus may be found on the webpage of the Levitt Lab.” https://architectsforsocialhousing.co.uk/2020/09/21/the-infection-of-science-by-politics-a-nobel-laureate-and-biophysicist-on-the-coronavirus-crisis/
“With millions [in UK] now bracing themselves for the autumn and winter ahead, the Guardian spoke to a number of experts for advice about how to get through the next six months:”
- Don’t get in a fight with your neighbours
- Knock off early
- Do something for other people
- Get ready to nest
- Stop trying to predict the future
- But plan things to look forward to
“Having positive things planned is really sensible,” he says. “We have to have things taking us into the future that give us meaning and purpose, to give life its contours.”
The alternative is avoidance, borne of a fatalistic sense that everything will be cancelled. “If you’re worried it will be called off, plan it anyway and embrace the risk – which is closer to the normal highs and lows of life than reinforcing the sense of a rupture by withdrawing completely.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/22/six-ways-to-get-through-the-next-six-months
The prime minister’s TV address to the nation shows he thinks he’s fighting a war, not a pandemic. He is besotted with a Churchillian battle of epic proportions – all in his own head – and we are the victims. “Some men are born mediocre. Some achieve mediocrity. Others have mediocrity thrust upon them. In 1940 we had Winston Churchill. In 2020 we have Boris Johnson, a man who believes himself to be Churchill’s reincarnation, but is nothing more than a poundshop imitation.”
Where to start with the prime minister’s TV address to the nation? The trademark smirk? The nervous hand gestures? The fact he thinks he’s fighting a war, not a pandemic? Or just the brazen cheek as Boris tried to claim the credit for what he called the stunning triumph over the coronavirus so far? The 50,000 dead and the endless screw-ups of his own government, from care homes to test and trace, were simply airbrushed out of history. The prime minister is not just a man without quality. He is a man without shame.”
I’ve been saying for months that the predictions of unemployment levels this winter are well understated. This article confirms my worst fears that we will see 20% plus unemployment this winter unless the government comes up with extensions to furloughs and lots more money. Even the BoE agrees with me now, but they could have forecast this long ago – so what is the cost that all of us are going to pay?
“That was the question exercising politicians, business leaders and economists after the prime minister announced curbs on opening hours for pubs and restaurants, and backtracked on the government’s previous advice that people should stop working from home. Economists at Bank of America think Britain is on course to contract in both the final three months of this year and the first three months of next.
Gordon Brown, who was in charge the last time Britain faced an economic crisis, used his first keynote speech to a Labour conference in a decade to call on Sunak to come up with a new economic recovery plan within days.
The former prime minister said job prospects were at their worst in 50 years. There were, he added, 2,932 applicants for a single warehouse job in Northumberland, 2,653 applicants for a factory job in Sunderland, 2,154 applicants for an administrative job in Coventry and 15,000 applicants for 10 assembly operative jobs in Birmingham.”
UPDATE – HOT PRESS: What is Rishi Sunak’s job support scheme and how will it work? “The chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has announced a replacement for the coronavirus job retention scheme based on a German-style system of wage subsidies.
Faced with the prospect of rising job losses this autumn when furlough closes at the end of October, and tougher restrictions on the economy as the pandemic worsens, the “job support scheme” forms the backbone of his winter economy plan.
How does the new scheme work? The government will contribute towards the wages of employees who are working fewer than normal hours. However, there are concerns workers at companies forced to close because of coronavirus restrictions – where no working hours may be possible – will be left without support. Employers will continue to pay the usual wages of their staff for the hours they work. For hours not worked, the government and the employer will each pay one third of the equivalent salary.” Read more detail:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/24/what-is-rishi-sunak-job-support-scheme-and-how-will-it-work-furlough BUT what’s missing
Rishi Sunak’s winter economy plan prioritises additional support for “viable” jobs. However, critics have warned that other measures are still needed to help people who have already lost their jobs or will lose them despite the new government scheme. Here are five measures that could help keep workers in jobs, but were missing from the chancellor’s winter economy plan: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/whats-missing-from-the-chancellors-new-scheme-to-save-jobs?
And also, read on: A vision for beyond the crisis
“The fundamental problem with the chancellor’s announcements is that they seek a return to normality. They aim to restore the same growth model that existed before the crisis. Yet we know this model contained deep inequalities. We also know that it was unsustainable and liable to break down. Periodic crises have demonstrated this fact.
We need new thinking not just to cope with the crisis but also to rebuild the economy. Crisis management can go hand in hand with planning for a recovery. Shorter work time, for example, could be pursued not just to address rising unemployment in the short term, but also to create the basis for a healthier and more dynamic economy in the longer term.
Similarly, the government could expand the public sector to create more socially useful jobs, while securing the conditions for a wider transformation in the economy. In all this, it is important to think about what kind of economy we need and want beyond the crisis.
AND finally, Joke of the week: “Sales of toilet rolls have soared by 23% over the past week, and manufacturers are preparing for further increases in consumer demand following the introduction of fresh coronavirus restrictions across most of the UK.” At least they will all have clean bums while the economy collapses around them!
Now that UK has left EUROPE I will comment on relevant EU – UK events as they arise:
In the midst of the corona crisis we mustn’t forget the Brexit crisis – phew so many crises, all at once!
“Thousands of Britons living in the EU will have their UK bank accounts closed by the end of the year because of the UK’s failure to agree a post-Brexit trade deal. Lloyds, Barclays and Coutts* have informed retail and business customers that they will lose their accounts before or when the Brexit transition period ends on 31 December and more banks are expected to follow suit.
Financial services in the UK can currently trade across the European Economic Area (EEA) because member countries are bound by the same regulatory framework. The arrangement, known as “passporting”, expires at the end of the year and, while the UK has legislated so that EU banks can continue to provide services for customers in Britain, the EU has not done the same.
Unless a trade deal is agreed with the EU, UK financial institutions will have to abide by often arcane rules which vary from country to country and depend on what services are being offered by what kind of bank. Last week, the Dutch National Bank confirmed that UK banks will no longer be able to provide current or savings accounts to retail customers in the Netherlands.
Customers who bank with firms that own EU-based subsidiaries are having their accounts transferred, but banks that do not have an EU arm would have to apply for a licence to trade in each EEA country. Some banks have too small a customer base in the EU to justify the cost.”
*Coutts Bank is an old established ‘private bank’, owned by NWB, and offers prestigious services to ultra-high, net-worth individuals.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/sep/21/britons-eu-uk-bank-accounts-closed
Steven is right, Britain is on a no-win situation now: https://stevenguinness2.wordpress.com/2020/09/24/will-a-second-covid-19-lockdown-coincide-with-a-no-deal-brexit/
To be continued next week.
Brits NEW Political party Manifesto. Normal’s coming out. Pendulum swings.
Burning question is it to late to take effect with all the nutters in control??
Many thanks ursel, I didn’t know about this party so I will check it out. Cheers!
“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.” Keynes
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/lessons-on-inflation-from-the-past?
All absolutely agreed, dear sir, and I concur with everything you have said.
Speaking of THE financial jigsaw…… A friend who is ignorant of any technical analysis stated emphatically that nobody can possible know what the future holds. With all the World’s “money” hooked up on the computers and chasing whatever the new new thing is here is a good fresh review of the electronic casino.
“The trend is your friend till it bends or ends, IF you are aware of the trend, that is.”
Dollar Chart extracted for emphasis! Precious metals holders need to have a hard look!
Remember this guy is a short term trader money manager, and very successful.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-sell-off-is-overdone-the-correction-may-not-be-09-25-20/
Excellent analysis thank you ursel, but of course nobody can tell what the Fed will do next.
It is almost certain that a G-SIFI bank is in trouble, probably HSBC, and if so the Fed will have to run to the rescue IMHO. So yes, the pullback is temporary and will return to bulls in charge soon enough.
Very bleak outlook for the U.K., indeed. Johnson has been such a disappointment.
He has indeed VV – I for one am very disappointed but then perhaps politicians are the same narcissistic sociopaths the world over? There is nothing new under the sun eh?