NO BUBBLE HERE

Corporate profits are at the same level they were in 2005, but the stock market is up 300% since 2005. I was taught stock prices were a function of corporate profits. They taught me the discounted cash flow method of calculating fair stock valuations. It looks like the Federal Reserve has just turned the stock market into a casino, where valuations, profits and cash flow are meaningless. The damage they are creating will be fatal.

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11 Comments
TN Patriot
TN Patriot
December 29, 2020 3:25 pm

This chart looks a lot like the national debt.

Mygirl....maybe
Mygirl....maybe
  Administrator
December 29, 2020 7:50 pm

Amazing what TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS in stimulus can achieve….

Johnny Hooker
Johnny Hooker
December 29, 2020 4:55 pm

“Diversity was our greatest strength” – Americas Epitaph

Gomer
Gomer
December 29, 2020 5:07 pm

Looks like the vote count in a couple of states…after midnight.

Ben Lurken
Ben Lurken
December 29, 2020 5:09 pm

Did you ever wonder what became of the Mafia? The question has crossed my mind from time to time. I am not, nor have I ever been a criminal. But I have enough firsthand exposure to high level members back in the 70’s to know they did not declare no-mas to Robert Mueller’s corrupt crew and go away.
I bring this up because with all the current plot twists and rabbit holes one can go down I ended up on a site which details many episodes from the 00’s involving naked short selling, corrupt fin journalists, Mafiaoso’s, incompetent SEC boobs, and a supposedly good guy named Patrick Byrne. Yes, the same Patrick Byrne currently fighting for Trump. He knows things.

I started reading just this one section of this website about a week ago.

https://www.deepcapture.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/deepcapture-the-story-v1.pdf

bigfoot
bigfoot
December 29, 2020 8:50 pm

One should evaluate Hershey differently from a cannabis company, for example. The latter is after market share and has no earnings and its whole thrust is growth until such time it has a position in its market that can be defended.

Would anyone rather have invested in Amazon in 2001 when it had no earnings and wouldn’t have any for YEARs or in Nordstrom with its nice little income flows and reasonable growth ahead?

very old white guy
very old white guy
December 30, 2020 9:04 am

Hell, I’ve been saying for decades that Vegas was just a good as the market and no less risky.

Anonymous
Anonymous
December 30, 2020 10:09 am

I am unsure how you came up with corporate profits in 2005 same as 2020… Looks to me they have about doubled since 2005 at least nominally…

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/corporate-profits

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Anonymous
December 30, 2020 10:11 am

sorry select 25 year chart

Question Mark
Question Mark
December 30, 2020 1:22 pm

Since the discount rate includes the anticipated inflation rate, time preference, and business risk, who would loan a private individual mortgage money at 3.5% for 30 years? Unless, the buyers of the MBS expect interest rates to drop even further or a government bailout if push comes to shove.