Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
The concept of cycles is becoming accepted in Western culture. Recently, people have been honing in on what they deem the 80-year cyclical theory that marks a major shift in humanity. While this may be true as it takes a few generations to change society, they are not incorporating the additional nuisances associated with the true Economic Confidence Model.
The 80-year theory, also called the Strauss–Howe generational theory, believes that there are four 20-year cycles or turnings that build up to a cataclysmic event. For example, some are using 2024 as the starting point, which brings us back to 1944 when America was at the cusp of World War II. Going back an additional 80 years would bring us to 1864 – the US Civil War. Taking it back even further we arrive at 1784 when the Revolutionary War ended.
Now, absolutely everything is connected, and to garner the most accurate forecasts requires peering out at society and the global economy. The problem with the 80-year theory is that it was developed from a solely American viewpoint as it was designed to explain the history and future of the United States.
The Economic Confidence Model, at a basic level, sees waves of 8.6 years building in intensity amounting to six waves to construct a major long wave of 51.6 years. What you get at the end of these 51.6-year waves is very profound. After the 1774.95 peak, we end up with a revolution against the monarchy. The next wave peak in 1826.55 produced the Russo-Persian War, 1826-1828, Greek War of Independence, Battle of Monte Santiago between Brazil and Argentina, Mexican Constitution is formed, the Maryland Democratic Party begins creating the confrontation between the Democrats and Republicans (South v North) which sets the stage for the American Civil War in 1861, and even Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on the 4th of July 1826 (1826.50) marking the end of the generation of Enlightenment whereas the peak of the wave was July 19th.
The next wave 1878 saw the Long Depression which was called the “Great Depression” until 1929-1932. The next wave peak of 1929,75 produced the takeover of the West by socialists. Then the next wave was 1981.35 which marked the peak in interest rates even to the day.
Each of these events shifted society as a whole. Capital concentration shifted in a profound way and changed nations. Nothing exists in isolation. The major wave will be 2032 and this will be followed by the shift from the West to the East in economic power.
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I know Armstrong is possessive of his cycle theory, but he clearly hasn’t done his homework on the Fourth Turning. He thinks it starts in 2024. I don’t think his theory contradicts the Strauss & Howe theory. Both models show a climax in the 2030 to 2033 time frame and both predict war and chaos.
~Always appreciate your insight and clarifications.
Have a great weekend, and an outstanding Thanksgiving w/ D and the boys.
My oldest and his wife flew in this week from Colorado for a wedding. We got to spend a few days with them and had the whole family together for the 1st time since March.
Sweet. That’s what it’s all about, right? Family. Priority.
That was the first thing I thought. To think that this 4th Turning hasn’t even started yet is as foolish as writing that 1944 was the cusp of the 2nd world war. Other than destroying what was already defeated, it was already over at that time.
It’s obvious that we are in the very midst of this current 4th turning, 15 years already into it. In fact, I kinda hoped that we would already be further along, because I always thought that my children were going to be in the same generation as my father, who was in elementary school when the 2nd world war ended. Turns out that they might not be able to dodge the worst of it by the blessing of being born too early. This may drag out longer than we thought.
We ain’t seen nuthin, yet, SL
The cycles begin with economic collapse, which is then followed by war. The timing of these cycles is not set in stone, and as we have seen over the past couple of decades, there are things that can be done to postpone their arrival. The price for doing that however is to increase the severity of eventual crisis.
Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. This undeniable truth applies to everything, and the cycles cannot be stopped.
We currently live in a world where few people actually own anything that is not purchased with debt. The result of that is that they actually do not really own much of anything. When they lose the ability to make payments, they will lose everything. They are playing musical chairs, and believing the music will never stop. It will.
Can someone roughly explain, how Western Culture can peak only at the end of 2032?
I am very cautious in my prognostications, but I cannot in any way see “Western Culture” holding on to even just some power, until 2032.
Economic cycles don’t matter if you are debt free!
Oh they still matter, make no mistake. The last time the government went bankrupt, it recapitalized itself by stealing the peoples gold.
People no longer have any gold, but the government will still have to steal whatever it can to recapitalize itself, and that time is coming rapidly.
The government will take what it needs to survive by its monopoly on violence.
J
Sorry to pop your bubble. The separated the dollar from gold in the 70’s. Now they just steal it through inflation!
Shift to China? Seriously? That’s what his model predicts? Does he have any clue whatsoever what is going on in China?
Might be worthy of a stand alone post, Admin.
Abso.fucking.lutely !!!
Worst Kung Fu scene EVER. Knock out blows to all four men? LOL !
This is a prime example of all that is wrong with the disinformation on the internet and social media.
I do not feel better.
Fake.
Every society goes through its own cycle based on its own history. What changed that were the world wars. The wars resulted in syncing the several involved countries cycles, which results in a cycle of economic crisis and war that spreads worldwide.
That the cycles are generational is not debatable. All you need to do is look at was passes for reality today among the latest generations, to understand they are operating from beliefs based in ignorance and delusion. When delusion comes face to face with reality, you find out immediately that reality does not care whether you believe in it or not.
All current studies show that young people overwhelmingly prefer the definitions of socialism and communism over capitalism.
That does not bode well for the future.
There is no capitalism. Only various degrees of socialism. Corporations are a perfect example of socialism. A corporation is institutional corruption in which the entity which is a government creation can be used to stifle competition and then use influence to control government regulation to benefit the corporations. This is all facilitated by open bribery and corruption of the government elected officials.
Corporatism or Mercantilism
Question. Are these cycles or turnings likely to happen at a faster rate than in the past due to technology advancements of an exponential nature ?
What happens to these models if we apply some Alvin Toffler – ‘ Future Shock ‘ ?
Very good questions. You’d think the cycles would run faster, with information flowing and population movements faster. However, if this is a sort of super-4th-Turning, the Turning of all Turnings, it could take longer because it will be more all encompassing. Like Egon von Greyerz speculates that it is a multi thousand year cycle coming to an end.
Cycle length is tied to that of a long-lived person. That’s where the approximate 80 years comes in to play. As those who were present for the previous fourth turning die off, the next one begins. The old memories disappear and the current participants are clueless.
Us boomers grew-up knowing about the evils of socialism. The kids today don’t. They’re too removed from its previous failed attempts, along with the media blackouts and the lies told in the school systems, to see it for what it is.
those aspects which pertain to human lifetimes and generations and their social dynamics, will continue to follow the chronology of human lives. but the magnification/intensification/force-multiplication effects of technology will certainly change the other variables – especially the ones related to systems dynamics like overshoot and collapse. The fact that this fourth turning is coming at around the same time that the overshoot and collapse mechanism is getting into high gear, is making it an especially enormous clusterfuck, way more than the ordinary sort of clusterfuck that previous 4th turnings have seen.