Finally A Wonder-Weapon That Does What It Promised To Do

Guest Post by Moon of Alabama

The battle of Avdeevka is about to be finished.

The city of Avdeevka, (not to be confused with the small town of Andreevka near Bakhmut), is situated immediately north-west of Donetsk city. It has been used for years as a Ukrainian fortress well positioned for artillery attacks on Donetsk. The whole city, and especially the coke and chemical plant in its northern sector, was well prepared to defend against Russian attacks.

But despite all attempts to hold on to it the Ukrainian garrison within the city is about to be encircled and fall.

Source: Live UA Map – bigger

The Russian attacks are coming from multiple directions and are more progressed than the Ukraine friendly map above is showing. The biggest danger to the Ukrainians is the Russian move in the north west which threatens to cut the city off from its supply line through the northern coal and chemical plant.

The Russian victory in this battle was accomplished with the help of one type of weapon created during the current war in Ukraine.

In the early 1990s the U.S. developed a strap on kit for unguided bombs that turned dumb weapons into precise ammunition.

The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) is …

… a guidance kit that converts unguided bombs, or “dumb bombs”, into all-weather precision-guided munitions. JDAM-equipped bombs are guided by an integrated inertial guidance system coupled to a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, giving them a published range of up to 15 nautical miles (28 km). JDAM-equipped bombs range from 500 to 2,000 pounds (230 to 910 kg).[5] The JDAM’s guidance system was jointly developed by the United States Air Force and United States Navy, hence the “joint” in JDAM.
…
The JDAM is not a stand-alone weapon; rather it is a “bolt-on” guidance package that converts unguided gravity bombs into precision-guided munitions (PGMs). The key components of the system are a tail section with aerodynamic control surfaces, a (body) strake kit, and a combined inertial guidance system and GPS guidance control unit.

The JDAM kit, of which more than 500,000 were produced, allowed for the use of large piles of cold-war era bombs with previously unknown precision.

After the 2022 start of the war in Ukraine Russia engaged in a program to develop an equivalent to the JDAM kit. The program was finished by the end of 2023. The Russian version can be strapped onto a 500kg or a 1,500 kilogram dumb bomb extending their range by attaching wings, guidance kit and control surfaces to already existing dumb bombs.

Prototype of a FAB 500 with (folded) wings and guidance kit

bigger

The guidance kits are cheap and can easily be mass produced.

Yesterday some 65 FAB500 and FAB1500 were used against targets in Avdeevka.

The use of these bombs, which carry 300 kilogram and more of explosives, near one’s own troops requires careful planing and observation. Observers on the ground have to make sure that their own troops are outside of the deadly circle of these bombs and that the coordinates of targets are submitted in a disciplined but secure and timely manner. Pilots have to make sure that the received coordinates are programmed into the bombs and that their release is done at the right attitude and positions.

This kill chain requires intensive training and disciplined soldiers. Yesterday’s attacks demonstrate that the Russian army and air-forces have mastered this discipline.

Any detected resistance or position of Ukrainian troops was visited by a precise FAB attack within just a few minutes.

There is no defense against these weapons. It is no wonder then that any resistance against the Russian onslaught is breaking down. Russian troops can proceed through bombed out Ukrainian positions without taking losses.

Previous reports have talked about a Russian superiority in artillery by a factor of 5 or higher. But consider that a 155mm artillery round has a weight of some 50 kilogram, 60% of which are explosives. One FAB carries 10 to 30 times the explosive equivalent of one artillery round.

The Ukrainian army has nothing comparable in its arsenals.

The introduction of mass FAB500 strikes onto the Ukrainian battle field have given the Russian forces a new qualitative advantage that will change the course of the war (though not its outcome). The U.S. political and military specialists who still believe that attrition is a viable strategy for the Ukrainian army are clearly way off the path of reality.

On February 1 the German broadsheet Bild reported of the conflict in the Ukrainian leadership:

The Bild publication writes that Zaluzhny wanted to withdraw troops from Avdiivka a few weeks ago, but Zelensky refused him this and on December 30 he personally went to the city to the front line to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters.So all the coffins that arrived from near Avdeevka to Ukraine since December 30 are solely on the conscience of Zelensky and his passion for narcissism.

Zelenski had asked Zaluzny to resign which the General rejected. The Ukrainian president has since made clear that he wants to fire the more popular general but is still looking for the right time and reason to do so.

The loss of Avdeevka may give him a marketable excuse to finally do that even when it is clear that it was Zelenski’s narcissism, and not Zaluzny’s advice, that has caused high Ukraine losses while inevitably losing a not holdable position.

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