Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts
As readers know, I am concerned that Putin’s tolerance of a too-long-continuing-Ukraine-conflict is encouraging the conflict to spin-out-of-control. I have written about this risk neglected by the Kremlin many times. On February 27 I was interviewed by Finian Cunningham about this risk. If the interview is posted online, I will link to it hopefully before it is taken down by the narrative controllers.
There is no doubt that I have been proven correct that the provocations, accepted by the Kremlin with only words in opposition, have increased in severity over the past two years.
First the West would send to the Ukrainians helmets and sleeping bags. Then small arms ammunition. Then artillery. Tanks were mentioned, but Washington and NATO said, “never tanks.” Then tanks were sent. Then, after first being denied, drones and intermediate-range missiles. Then targeting information. Then mercenaries. Then after being denied, now long-range missiles and US F-16s capable of penetrating deep into Russia herself far from the battlefront are under consideration. And now the latest, the French President’s proposal to send NATO troops. “We will never send troops,” declares NATO’s Stoltenberg. But all the denials previously were breached and meant nothing.
So the question before us is: Has Putin reduced the threat of the conflict spinning out of control by fighting it on a low key basis limited to Donbass and the Russian areas, or has his low-key behavior convinced Washington’s neoconservatives that Putin is a paper tiger who will accept any provocation and any insult. If the latter, the provocations will increase in severity until the conflict spins out of control. Clearly from helmets to NATO troops is an immense escalation. Putin understands that the West intends Russia’s destruction, so why does he prolong conflicts that provide opportunities for the West to expand conflict? https://www.rt.com/russia/593366-putin-western-intentions-russia/
The Kremlin and the Western media whores see the fundamental issue as Ukraine becoming a member of NATO. The neoconservatives who control US foreign policy seem to think that Putin will stand aside from this just as he did from being called by the President of the United States “the new Hitler” and “a son-of-a-bitch.” No American official of any rank ever spoke in public of Soviet leaders in such terms. On his way to Reykjavik, Iceland, for his meeting with Gorbachev, Reagan told his entourage that one word of rudeness to the Soviet officials and you were fired on the spot.
Reagan’s goal was to end the Cold War, and he did. It was the neoconservatives and the US military/security complex that restarted it.
As the deceased Steven Cohen and I emphasized, the threat of nuclear war today is much higher than during the Cold War. In those years, leaders on both sides worked to reduce tensions and to achieve mutual security that would reduce the danger of nuclear confrontation. I was part of the effort and perhaps I am one of a small handful of people still alive who know and lived the experience.
Once the Soviet Union collapsed when the Politburo placed Russian President Gorbachev under house arrest, the neoconservatives saw their chance at world hegemony and began their assault on Russia. All of the security-enhancing agreements worked out over the years of the Cold War were cancelled by Washington.
NATO’ Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is Washington’s puppet. But he is not sufficiently stupid to knowingly start a war with Russia. Who can possibly imagine Europe, which is incapable of protecting its own borders from being over-run by unarmed immigrant-invaders, possibly fighting Russia. The war, if Putin could bring himself to fight it, would be over in a few minutes. https://www.rt.com/russia/593382-putin-advanced-weapons-deployed/
But Stoltenberg, Washington, and Washington’s EU puppet states can start a deadly war by being ever so clever. Instead of making Ukraine a member of NATO, a red line that not even Putin can accept, the individual NATO countries are signing bilateral security agreements with Ukraine. Both Germany and the British have signed such agreements, and more EU territorial entities (towers of babel no longer nations) have such agreements in the works.
What his means is that NATO itself doesn’t send troops, but the individual members do. Why does this matter? It is still a war between Europe and England against Russia.
So again I ask my question: Why does Putin encourage worsening provocations? Why does he see Ukraine’s membership in NATO as a red line, a real one instead of Putin’s many-words-only red lines, and why does he think bilateral security agreements between European countries and Ukraine are any different from Ukraine’s membership in NATO?
It is Putin’s refusal to impose restraint on a weak and collapsing West that is leading to nuclear Armageddon. I am not writing because I want a Russian victory. I am writing because I do not want nuclear Armageddon. The West is unreasonable. Putin still thinks he can reason with the West. This is a mistake that is fatal for mankind.
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The USSA/NATO/MIC has already attrited themselves by their own actions. Russia is merely trying to stay out of the way while the enemy is committing suicide. Instead of being mealy mouthed like you’re being, I do want a Russian victory and the complete demolition of the MIC.
Where is the logic? If the entire West is depleting its armories, so also must the Russians. The combined Western economies is at least triple that of Russia’s. The Russians are so desperate that they are buying shells from N. Korea that have a high rate of failure. As our demented Pres. says “come-on man.”
The Russians bought the oldest shells North Korea had in exchange for food and ammonia. But mostly to get the NK’s to make more. Now North Korea is making more and selling more to Russia. In other words, Russia now has a reliable supplier of Russian designed military gear for dirt cheap, and North Korea evades sanctions, feeds it’s people and gets richer. The only looser is American Empire.
The Empire is a big club, but you aren’t in it.
I don’t think you know what attrition is.
This is a fake war.
Putin, Biden and Xi are all buddies.
Don’t forget Hamas and Israhell – best buddies too!
First line is wrong, people are dying. The second is correct.
Picture wars back when ranks of peasants in bright uniforms were moved around like toys on the floor by little princelings, to stand and shoot at each other.
Plenty of those wars were fake, but it’s still real for the SOBs doing the dying.
Sometimes this writer is inciteful, but this time he has it backwards. The Russians have been responsible for the provocations and the West is merely reacting. Some of those provocations: sending “little green men” into the Donbas to assist the separatists; shooting down a civilian airliner; invading and annexing the Crimea; invading Ukraine proper; declaring occupied areas to be part of Russia; shelling and bombing civilian targets; kidnapping hundreds of Ukrainian Children; mining farm fields; and blockading Ukrainian grain shipments. I am sure there are others that I can’t remember offhand. If it weren’t for nukes, the West would already justifiably have troops in the Ukraine. OK, all you Russophiles and Russian bots can start down-thumbing.
Pop another quaalude, nutjob.
Crimea is a separate thing that actually went well for them.
Ukraine is still shipping out grain.
I understand the Russian strategy of wearing down the west, but they have to understand that as long as there’s a territorial entity called “Ukraine” in existence, there will be problems.
The Russians must eliminate that entity from existence.
Yup,next stop Odessa!…..oh we’re on the road to Transnistria……once country 404 is cut off from seaports and Rus links with Romania…..
Just doodling about how Russia could respond to our talk of long war and striking deep into Russia. **I am NOT talking about Russia treating “our” leadership to the same assults that Putin has endured.**
It is time to upgrade to a new type of warfare. What are we at now, 5th gen, well welcome to 6th gen. What is it? A look at war from an different perspective. Most war effort is to kill solders, war material and important infrastructure. These are all tough, dispersed or large in number, making significant degradation a lot of work! And expensive of lives both ‘your’ side and the other, as well as money. How can we do better with inputs that deliver more direct impact on the war effort.
Target important people! No, not necessarily Ladybug Graham, although no one will complain. I mean decision makers and finance types and scientific sorts who think they are not involved in a war. Our borders are open and have been for a long while. Millions and millions of Conex containers come in uninspected. 2000 AK-47’s or RPG’s will fit in one Conex shipping box. The Russians have already shown surface to surface missiles in Conex containers, not that they would need them. Buy everything you need from the cartels in Mexico from NATO supplies, and include operatives. Activate a few cells to control the hired hands and go to work.
Pick a defense contractor. They are talking big about General Dynamics F-16, so let’s start with them. Using RPG’s and wire guided missiles and drones attack the CEO & CFO & COO. Hit the top technical scientist and as much of the Board of Directors as possible at home on one night. With pandemonium everywhere on night two hit the homes or cars of the five biggest investors in General Dynamics. All the hired hands are eliminated and the activated cells go underground.
So far this is a mess but when Lockheed is second and and that new drone startup is third, now there is a problem. Smart, competent and rich people do not grow on trees, and they think highly of their own and families lives. Because they are smart, competent or rich they have choices. People with big money will get out of war production. Capital always goes where it is treated best! So will big wigs and Pobah’s. This is just a paycheck for them. And technical/scientific people can always find problems to solve.
So instead of attacking the point of the spear (those are tough guys,) or the supply routes and personnel (tough and dispersed) or factories with long range missiles that look like an incoming nuke strike (too many and too far away) just hit the soft targets that will have the biggest effects both primary (XYZ corp is beheaded) but mostly secondary where no one will work for war production.
Lighten up Francis, they (both sides) are still assembling troops into formation to let the other side hit with artillery. It’s just a cull.
This is a regression in the generations of war.
There are no active measures, and you aren’t going to Cargo Cult a container of RPGs no matter how hard you pray to Putin or Orthodox Jebus.
PCR and inumerable ‘commentators’ have been ‘dining out’ on Ukraine, Gaza, and previous military adventures for far too long. Adios, find something constructive to do, you parasites.
You should see how much more money the other side makes.