Has the Bubble Popped?

Guest Post by Eric Peters

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How much longer it can go on? How long, that is, can the irrational exuberance which has characterized the market for new cars go on?

Each year, new cars become less and less affordable – relative to what people can afford to spend. Which explains why leases and extended loans with near nil interest have been resorted to for the past almost ten years now to keep the proverbial balloon inflated.

But the ballon may finally have popped.

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Pop Goes The Car Bubble . . . And It May Not Be a Bad Thing

Guest Post by Eric Peters

Almost every negative thing happening in the car business – in particular, ludicrous technical complexity for the sake of electronic gimmickry and also to cope with diminishing returns federal “safety” and emissions mandates – could be gotten under control by the simple expedient of cutting off the monopoly money/debt-financing that makes it all possible.

The seven year loan.

“Free” money (zero or very low interest).

Give-away leases.

The car industry is riding a bubble that’s proportionately as large as the housing bubble of a decade ago. And it is going to pop. For the same reason that a wave has to crest and wash ashore, once set in motion.

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Is The Auto Loan Bubble Ready To Pop?

Submitted by Tommy Behnke via The Mises Institute,

On Tuesday, it was announced that over seventeen million new vehicles were sold in 2015, the highest it’s ever been in United States history.

While the media claims that this record has been reached because of drastic improvements to the US economy, they are once again failing to account for the central factor: credit expansion.

When interest rates are kept artificially low, individuals are misled into spending more than they otherwise would. In hindsight, they discover that their judgment errors wreaked havoc on their financial well-being.

This is a lesson that the country should have learned from the Subprime Crisis of 2008. Excessive credit creation led too many individuals to buy homes, build homes, and invest in the housing industry. This surge in artificial demand temporarily spiked prices, resulting in over four million foreclosed homes and the killing of over nine million US jobs.

Instead of learning from the mistakes that sent shock waves throughout most of the planet, the Federal Reserve has continued with its expansionist policies. Since 2009, the money supply has increased by four trillion, while the federal funds rate has remained at or near zero percent. Consequently, the housing bubble has been replaced with several other bubbles, including one in the automotive industry.

Automotive companies have taken advantage of the cheap borrowing costs, increasing vehicle production by over 100 percent since 2009:

Cheap Borrowing Costs Over the Years

Source: OICA

Continue reading “Is The Auto Loan Bubble Ready To Pop?”