Tag: stagnation

One True Measure Of Stagnation: Not In The Labor Force

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

One True Measure of Stagnation: Not in the Labor Force

This is a stark depiction of underlying stagnation: paid work is not being created as population expands.

Heroic efforts are being made to cloak the stagnation of the U.S. economy. One of these is to shift the unemployed work force from the negative-sounding jobless category to the benign-sounding Not in the Labor Force (NILF) category.

But re-labeling stagnation does not magically transform a stagnant economy. To get a sense of long-term stagnation, let’s look at the data going back 38 years, to 1977.

NOT IN LABOR FORCE (NILF) 1976 to 2015

I’ve selected data from three representative eras:

  • The 20-year period from 1977 to 1997, as this encompasses a variety of macro-economic conditions: five years of stagflation and two back-to-back recessions (1977 – 1982), strong growth from 1983 to 1990, a mild recession in 1991, and growth from 1993 to 1997.
  • The period of broad-based expansion from 1982 to 2000
  • The period 2000 to 2015, an era characterized by bubbles, post-bubble crises and low-growth “recovery”

In all cases, I list the Not in Labor Force (NILF) data and the population of the U.S.

1977-01-01: 61.491 million NILF population 220 million

1997-01-01 67.968 million NILF population 272 million

Population rose 52 million 23.6%

NILF rose 6.477 million 10.5%

Continue reading “One True Measure Of Stagnation: Not In The Labor Force”

The Cost of Stagnation: We’re Living In Limbo

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

This erosion of opportunities to complete life’s stages and core dramas is rarely recognized, much less addressed.

The idea that human life subdivides rather naturally into stages is based on our natural progression from childhood into adulthood and eventual (if we’re lucky) old age.

Confucian thought views life as a developmental process with seven stages, each roughly corresponding to a decade: childhood, young adulthood (16-30), age of independence (30-39), age of mental independence (40-49), age of spiritual maturity (50-59), age of acceptance (60-69), and age of unification (70 – end of life).

Each stage has various tasks, goals and duties, which establish the foundation for the next stage.

Each stage is centered on a core human challenge: for the teenager, establishing an identity and life that is independent of parents; for the young adult, finding a mate and establishing a career; for the middle-aged, navigating the challenges of raising children and establishing some measure of financial security; for those in late middle-age, helping offspring reach independent adulthood and caring for aging parents; early old age, seeking fulfillment now that life’s primary duties have been accomplished and managing one’s health; and old age, the passage of accepting mortality and the loss of vitality.

The End of Secure Work and the diminishing returns of financialization are disrupting these core human challenges and frustrating those who are unable to proceed to the next stage of life:

Continue reading “The Cost of Stagnation: We’re Living In Limbo”