Frostbite Falls Daily Rant- 4/29/2011

Doom Lite vs. Full Doom: The TBP Table of Core Arguments

 

Daily Rant Archive

 3/2/11, 3/3/11, 3/5/11, 3/7/11, 3/8/2011, 3/10/11, 3/12/11, 3/15/11, 3/17/11, 3/18/11,3/19/11, 3/20/2011, 3/24/11, 3/25/11, 3/27/11, 3/30/11, 4/9/11, 4/11/11, 4/14/11, 4/25/11, 4/27/2011

 

Top  Links

  

Reverse Engineering 

Automatic Earth 

Zero Hedge 

Economic Undertow 

Of Two Minds 

 

Rant Lite

Today’s rant frames up the major topics pursued on TBP and presents 2 opposing viewpoints on each of these topics.

 

Quote of the Day

Luk 21:10Then He said to them, “Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Luk 21:11“And there will be great earthquakes in various places, and famines and pestilences; and there will be fearful sights and great signs from heaven.

 

 

 

 

 A Tale of Two Depressions

As the Great Depression progressed onward, the early collapse in RE prices made many Banks insolvent, which then precipitated the Stock Market Crash of 1929. 

 

 
 
 
 

  

Geological and Cosmological Event Watch Thread

Not sure if there is really a significant increase in geologic events right now, but at least reading the MSM over the last year it appears to me that there has been an increase in frequency and in amplitude.

 

 

Other Shoes and the Uselessness Premium

“Creating fuel production in a failed- state Libya is beyond the grasp of the EU’s and United States’ unconventional ‘assets’. Blatant military intervention would be opposed by Russia, China and no doubt the other oil- producing autocracies.”

 

 

   

 

One of the greatest difficulties you have once you go “Full Doom” as a writer on the Econoblogs is that your concerns become less worth considering by people who are concerned with more “Doom Lite” issues, and their concerns aren’t that important to you.  Let me present a couple of examples to demonstrate how this works.

From my side as a Full Doomer, I’m not really concerned with Obama-care or Ron Paul’s Presidential bid.  I know Obama-care cannot work, but more than that I know there is NO solution to the health care problem that people would consider “acceptable”and would work.  I’m not really concerned with whether Ron Paul becomes POTUS or not, because as a Full Doomer I don’t think anything Ron Paul could do would stop or even much slow down the collapse.  If anything, if Ron Paul follows through with some of the things he has bloviated on over the years, I would expect the collapse to accelerate.  That IMHO would be a GOOD thing, so I support Ron Paul over any other dickhead out there running for POTUS, but I sure do not believe Ron Paul will solve our problems.

Not to say I don’t chip in sometimes on these threads, but when I do you will find many of my remarks to be quite sarcastic, and of course I engage in my predilection for digging up Pics to make fun of the threads.  This because I do not take those threads seriously; because I don’t think they are addressing the real problems.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, when a “Doom Lite” writer like Admin drops in on my threads, he mainly makes fun of my Doomsday ideas.  To him, considering a complete Civilization Collapse is not worthwhile, he wants to tweak and fix the current system to make it WORK again.  Kick the CONgress Critters out, do the Perp Walks with the Banksters, stop the Spending, stop exporting the Jobs, eliminate Entitlements and the FSA, let’s get Amerika PRODUCTIVE again!  The Doom Lite writer sees the short term problems and wants to find a FIX for them; the Full Doom writer sees all these things as transient and unfixable problems that are precursors to other problems.

Who are Doom Lite writers here on the net?  Examples would be Jim Quinn, Karl Denninger, Mike Shedlock, Yves Smith et al.  Full Doomers are Dmitri Orlov, Jim Kunstler,  Mike Ruppert, Chris Martenson et al.  Also myself of course, and I tend to out-Doom most of them, except Dmitri my Ruskie Twin. LOL.  Doom Lite writers tend to be most concerned with the mechanics of the Monetary System Collapse; Full Doomers focus down more on the long term issues of Peak Oil and Energy.

Neither group of writers is WRONG insofar as what they are concerned with, but the timelines are different and there are differences in the types of Solutions they try to consider.  However, if you put a Doom Lite writer and a Full Doom writer on the same website at the same time, each of them will consider the other one to be somewhat ridiculous.  That is for the most part why Jim and I argue, we both see the same things insofar as the collapse is concerned, but Jim hopes for solution to the economic and political issues which I already consider impossible to manage, and the solutions I consider are far past the timeline Jim is concerned with here.  He is most worried about the world his Sons are about to inherit; I am most worried about the world a couple of generations down the line will inherit. (call them Gen Apocalypse and Gen Mad Max)

MOST people prefer Doom Lite, because it tends to offer a little more in the way of HOPIUM.  Since this website is Jim’s Bully Pulpit, MOST of the people here are Doom Lite people.  There are a few Full Doomers here though, HZK is a Full Doomer, ER is a Full Doomer.  Not sure who else  though among the regular contributors is Full Doom.  Even Flash and Plubius are not Full Doomers, because both believe the Illuminati will be able to maintain control in perpetuity.  If you accept the idea that the Illuminati will be able to maintain control over society in perpetuity, you DEFINITELY are not a Full Doomer. (You can substitute and call the Illuminati an Oligarchy or Plutocracy or Krony Kapitalists, I just happen to like Illuminati as my term because it drives anti-Conspiracy Theorists NUTS. LOL)

Now that we have a better Definition of the Full Doomer and Doomer Lite philosophies we can take a look at a few of the Recurring Topics we have on TBP and briefly analyze the differing perspective of Full Doom and Doom Lite Pundits.

Topic

Doom Lite

Full Doom

 Dollar & Monetary System  We can fix the monetary system and rehabilitate the Dollar if we STOP PRINTING, feed Helicopter Ben to the Lions, Slash Spending, allow TBTF Banks to FAIL, Incarcerate the Criminal Banksters and use Precious Metals to underpin the currency.  The monetary system cannot be rehabilitated by any means, there will be a complete collapse of ALL Fiat money and financial instruments and commerce will for quite some time be mainly Barter.  PMs will only retain value in areas where there is a surplus of basic commodities.
Inflation, Hyper-Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation, DICK UP YOUR ASSFLATION WTF CARES ANYMORE?  WE ARE TOAST NO MATTER HOW IT COLLAPSES.AGREEMENT WTF CARES ANYMORE?  WE ARE TOAST NO MATTER HOW IT COLLAPSES.AGREEMENT
Energy To resolve our Energy problems, we must IMMEDIATELY begin building more Nukes, Drill Baby Drill for more Local Oil and build more Hydro Plants and Wind Farms, and eventually pick up the slack from lost energy from Imported Oil sources. Lost Energy from depleted Oil is Irreplaceable and it is far too late to stop an extensive Power Down throughout society which will halt most of our Transportation methods and bring down the Electrical Grid.  Our only choice is to prepare for a Low Energy footprint in the future.
 Goobermint  We can fix Da Goobermint if we Vote Out all the scumbag CONgress Critters and replace them with Honest Politicians who cannot be Bought who all demonstrate the Wisdom of the Founding Fathers and abide by the Constitution.  Said new Goobermint will be made much smaller with fewer Regulations and less Taxation, allowing Commerce to revive as the Free Market takes over.  Da Goobermint is inherently unfixable and corrupt and cannot be rehabilitated via the Ballot Box.  Only a Revolution can remove the current power structure, and the results of a Revolution will likely bring a new Goobermint as bad or WORSE than the current one.  The failure of the monetary sytem and energy systems will eventually render all large scale Goobermints unable to function, with the power vacuum filled by local Warlords and Dictators in most places.
Jobs We must stop the offshoring of Productive Jobs and rebuild our Manufacturing Base in order to build an export based Mercantilist economy with a Trade Surplus. The Industrial Model is FINISHED, even if we could rebuild Factories here in the FSofA, we wouldn’t have the Oil to run them anyhow, and there won’t be anyone here or abroad who could afford the products we build with them anyhow, because of the upward spiraling cost of energy measured in EROEI.
 Immigration  We must Seal the Borders and deport all Illegal Aliens and get FSofA Citizens to work at all the scut jobs at below Minimum Wage they currently fill to reduce Unemployment and reduce the liabilities of Aliens who are soaking up free Medical Care in the Emergency Rooms of our Hospitals.  We can TRY to seal the borders and deport the Illegal Aliens, but they will just be replaced by more home grown Citizens who are falling off the economic cliff and will be just as big a drain on the Medical System.  Besides that, at least on the Border with Mejico,  it will likely create an ever growing Shooting War with a Tsunami of Wetbacks seeking to escape an even worse situation in Mejico.
 Imperialism & Foreign Wars  We must STOP trying to be the World’s Policeman, bring all our Boys & Girls HOME and reduce the outrageous COST of maintaining the Big Ass Military.  As soon as we STOP running all our Imperialist adventures, we will basically be CUT OFF from the Foreign Oil still making its way across the Sea Lanes to our Refineries.  We also will crash just about the only type of “productive” thing we build here anymore, which are the Weapons of War and we will bring back a whole new crew of people to put on the Unemployment line.
 Free Shit Army & 30 Blocks of Squalor  We must end all transfer payments, all Welfare, Social Security and Medicaire which are all unfunded Liabilities we cannot afford.  Former Welfare recipients will be FORCED to go back to work and become Productive Citizens rather than Useless Eaters.  Old Folks will rely on their Savings and their Extended Families to take care of them in their dotage.  The minute we knock down all these social support mechanisms is the minute we turn into Egypt or Libya or all the rest of the 3rd World countries where the people with Nothing Left to Lose go BERSERK.  We don’t HAVE jobs these people could do, even if they were qualified to do any job, which they are not for the most part.  Most Old Folks have no savings, and the Extended Family died back in the 1950s for the most part.  The Medical Industry as a whole would COLLAPSE without Goobermint input, putting the Doctors, Nurses and Medical Records folks on the UE lines also.

China

 China will succeed long term because they are net creditors, have most of the Industrial infrastructure and have more Science and Math geniuses studying at Elite Universities.  China is TOAST because of outrageous Population Overshoot, a depleted Water Supply, insufficient arable land and insufficient local supplies of remaining Fossil Fuel energy.

 

FINAL

SOLUTIONS

 Boomers should be EXTERMINATED  Pigmen should be EXTERMINATED

 

For those of you who do not think I can write in Brief, I think this Table destroys that argument. You cannot GET more Concise than this, 1-3 sentences from BOTH sides of every major debate we engage in here.  I challenge ANYONE here to phrase these arguments in shorter terms with less prose.  If you can do it, hats off to you, but I do not think it can be done.  What I have done here is Frame Up in Brief the CORE Arguments made in the various areas of the Collapse we mainly concern ourselves with here on TBP.  You could go to almost any Thread pursued here and drop it into one of these areas, and then further go in to look at all the Posts made in those threads and you would find they fit to one extent or another into either the Doom Lite or Full Doom perspective.  There are of course other areas of discussion and subsidiary topics based on the Newz of the Day, but in general terms these Top Ten areas cover probably 95% of the posting on TBP.  This is a WAG, I did not come up with that number Scientifically. LOL.

Now, as you go down the Table, you may find yourself to be Doom Lite in some areas, and Full Doom in others.  At the same time though, you should see how these areas inter-connect, so if you accept for instance the Energy argument of the Full Doomer, its hard not to also accept the Dollar argument.

The GAME I have here for this Rant is to do another one of my Polls of the membership.  After reading this post, do you put yourself more in the Full Doom Camp, or are you a Doom Lite kind of person?  How do you sit on the Core Issues defined here?  What is your rationale for believing one or the argument to be the better one?  Let us know your thoughts on these Core Issues.  Inquiring Minds want to Know.

RE

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Administrator
Administrator
Admin
  Reverse Engineer
May 1, 2011 1:12 pm

Can someone explain to me why we spent billions on a facility for used nuclear waste in Nevada and then pulled the plug?

Administrator
Administrator
Admin
  Reverse Engineer
May 1, 2011 1:40 pm

But RE. It’s only Nevada. It’s a decadent state and 90% of the homeowners are underwater anyway. So we lose Axel. A small price to pay.

LLPOO
LLPOO
May 1, 2011 2:01 pm

What?

Can you keep your posts shorter please? My head hurts.

Administrator
Administrator
Admin
  LLPOO
May 1, 2011 2:09 pm

English Rose is the LLPOO Doppelganger.

Didn’t you just love the inbred royal wedding? I was all a twitter over her dress. I bet you are still on a royal high.

Colma Rising
Colma Rising
May 1, 2011 2:05 pm

llpoh said earlier “RE – the mistake you make is to presume you know what you in fact do not know. You presume to know for certain that the energy situation will not be resolved. It is the cornerstone of your doomsday scenario. If the energy issue is overcome, the rest of your scenario disintegrates. It is the mistake of the ages….” amongst other things.

RE answerewd with the “Blame the silents” post… a lengthy piece with multiple tangents that would have been better suited for the “Few Dollars” post wherein such would be lambasted and picked apart as just another boomer excuse.

llpoh: The lengthy post which RE supposes was an answer to your simple question did not contain any answer to your question at all… you are correct in the fact that it was a mountain of verbal irrelevance to the question at hand. Typical Illuminati sidestepping of direct questioning.

At least you tried, and I commend you for the olive-branch.

RE: You shit on any opportunity for civil discourse when you get all butt-hurt at the slightest of criticism. This post was actually open-minded at first, but you can’t get over the fact that your answers, being lengthy, are dilluted at best.

Dammit I have papers to write but your unchecked passive-aggressive commentary leaves me no choice but to give my dos centavos. You’re distracting me from important work, Pig Man, and I will not forget this.

Persnickety
Persnickety
May 1, 2011 2:05 pm

Jim: I assume your question about Yucca Mountain is purely rhetorical. It’s by far the most suitable waste storage location in the lower 48. The remaining doubts about it are far into the metaphysical category, not anything meaningful among intelligent rational people. But it’s the NIMBY factor writ large, with asshole Reid able to block it through his political position. Nothing more to it than that.

Administrator
Administrator
Admin
  Persnickety
May 1, 2011 2:12 pm

Persnickety

I was serious. I thought it seemed like the best, safest alternative for the country. I was really irritatated that we had spent billions and then pulling the plug.

Speed
Speed
May 1, 2011 4:54 pm

It’s not just the spent fuel/waste. The reactor itself, even when shut down, has to be constantly monitored and pampered. Decommissioning a nuclear reactor can take 10 to 20 years. You don’t just hit the “off” switch and walk away from one, so if Peak Oil hit and a total economic collapse spread around the world, how long would nuclear plant workers be able to keep showing up at their jobs? What if the electrical grid went down, the water for the cooling system was shut off, and they couldn’t truck in fuel for the backup generators anymore? If there’s rioting and looting going on, etc, those nuke plants will soon be abandoned.

And let’s not even get into the hydroelectric dams, chemical factories, toxic waste dumps, dams holding back mine tailings, nuclear weapons sites, hazardous medical waste, scientific labs full of viruses, satellites decaying in their orbits. We humans have built one huge mess of a “civilization” that we cannot let go of, unless we want to exterminate ourselves.

llpoh
llpoh
May 1, 2011 5:26 pm

Thanks Colma. I actually read just enough of his “response” to know he was doing his standard bob and weave.

The fact is every single person throughout history who has taken his stance re such and such is impossible has been wrong. Every one. As I mentioned, there are indications we are getting close to a workable wave energy generator. Would that solve all the issues? Not likely. But it is a start. People are going to lose their knowledge base overnite. If the entire defense industry of the world were instead focused on the energy issue, do you think maybe we would come up with a range of solutions to the energy issue, I think so.

AKAnon
AKAnon
May 1, 2011 5:43 pm

Persnickety-I thought Reid’s presence was among the best reasons to sacrifice NV.

Persnickety
Persnickety
May 1, 2011 7:37 pm

RE: you really need to do some more research on a lot of subjects. Regarding nuclear waste, dry cask storage, which doesn’t require any active cooling, is THE STANDARD for waste more than 5 years out of the reactor. Do some reading:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dry_cask_storage

In some cases it can be used for waste only 1 year out of the reactor. This is not any new or untested technology, it’s used at numerous nuke plants around the US and elsewhere. The whole Fukushima thing has created so many fucking stupid “armchair experts” it makes me sick. (Saying this as someone with a close relative in the environmental cleanup side of the nuke industry.)

As far as length, I’ve written numerous exam answers more than 5 pages long, and papers towards 100 pages. Bad lazy professors often grade by the pound, but good ones grade with thoughts of concision and brevity. You might keep that in mind.

Persnickety
Persnickety
May 1, 2011 7:40 pm

“I thought Reid’s presence was among the best reasons to sacrifice NV.”

It sure is now. Of course Yucca Mtn was first studied in 1978 and Hairy Ass Reid didn’t become a Senator til 1987, but the decision of Nevada voters to elect and re-elect him is just one more good reason to send all our high level waste there.

Not that it should matter. Between Yucca Mtn and Las Vegas is the far more contaminated Nevada Test Site, not to mention Nellis with incredible amounts of toxic contamination from all the conventional ordnance that’s dropped there. But why bring intelligent considerations into a NIMBY debate anyway.

llpoh
llpoh
May 1, 2011 8:02 pm

Persnickety said: “Bad lazy professors often grade by the pound, but good ones grade with thoughts of concision and brevity. You might keep that in mind.” And the vast majority of those bad, long papers go unread. He might keep that in mind too.

howard in nyc
howard in nyc
May 1, 2011 8:02 pm

december, 1956 dude. just a few months my senior; and you get just that much elder respect from me.

your earlier description of a personal loss of hope, i don’t mean to discount that. any individual’s personal path may parallel or may be quite different than that of his generation. and you weren’t the only person who lost hope on that day. i have heard and read many other folks who experienced the same as you. i didn’t. i don’t know why; i doubt my personal reaction reflected some generational trend, and your reaction was probably more typical. so i just wanted to be clear that i was not attacking your experience, that reaction, or trying to indicate that my reaction was any more valid or appropriate than anyone elses.

oh, the aerial riot photo looks like the ol’ hood, 1965. i can’t see my house in that view, but it sure looks like south central los angeles. i think having lived through those tense nights helped influence my reaction to the more distant horrors of ’68. maybe someday i’ll pay some shrink to tease that out.

anyway, i tend to separate the civil rights action out from the boomer revolution, and you have thrown both together here. two different ways to look at the period. but here is mine, briefly (i hope).

the civil rights era ended with the big ‘buyout’. affirmative action, massive expansion of welfare payouts, school integration and additional money to improve inner city schools, food stamps, headstart, CETA and other jobs programs (remember CETA jobs–those were awesome good pay makework gigs), all that cash was layered on top of the voting rights acts and the long delayed legal equality and a societal commitment to enforcing legal equality.

but the civil rights movement was not a boomer movement. and while it was an example for the boomer revolution to follow, it began before the boomers came of age, and it was initiated by older folks who emerged from an apartheid outsider culture. even the youngsters of the movement, james meredith, medgar evers, rosa parks, were not boomers. the high school kids in little rock were barely boomers.

by the time stokley and SNCC came along, the movement was quite mature.

in my construction, the civil rights movement began earlier. and it ended with victory. the buyout was icing on the cake (that sowed the seeds of future failures, exemplified by the 30 blocks). it was not a ‘here, take this money, but no vote for you’ compromise or sellout before reaching the big goals. the fight was for equality, and it was achieved.

anyway, lumping civil rights into the boomer revolution is not unreasonable; i just think it muddies the question. i think separating out boomer anti-war, freedom of individual expression, challenging of authoritative structures other than american apartheid, and the 60s-70s culmination of feminist equality.

there is tons of overlap. different ways to look at the time are perfectly fine. we never even defined what the ‘boomer revolution’ exactly was (beyond stopping the vietnam war). and that is a much softer definition than that of the civil rights movement.

i ain’t gonna try to match your word count. i’ll stop here for now.

llpoh
llpoh
May 1, 2011 8:08 pm

Admin – many thanks for the article. Above you said “To boil the entire 2008 financial collapse down to one word, it would be: DEBT.” I do not disagree. That society as a whole stopped valuing education, work ethic, honesty and integrity, etc., set the stage for rush to debt. We came to want something for nothing, and as a society believed we had achieved the equivalent of the perpetual motion machine – we thought we were getting outputs without the need to put anything in. It is now time to pay the piper for the stupidity of it all.

llpoh
llpoh
May 1, 2011 8:10 pm

Sorry – posted under wrong article.

howard in nyc
howard in nyc
May 1, 2011 8:14 pm

see, you love RE so much you can’t stay away even when you intend to.

howard in nyc
howard in nyc
May 1, 2011 8:32 pm

well, those young boomer rioters got fucking CRUSHED. i think 33 dead, and they didn’t kill one another–shot by cops and national guardsmen. not relevant to our discussion, it just occurred to me.

it is funny how these things affect people. that riot taught me to keep my head down and when a fight/riot breaks out, don’t stop to look; go the fuck the other way quickly.

my sister, otoh, was impressed that everyone (big brother, mom and dad, all the adults she encountered that week, including LAPD officers) were scared shitless. the only people who did not look scared were the ones in fatigues carrying assault rifles.

she learned she wanted to be one of the ones with big guns. she became a prison guard (and loved working in the tower, looking through a scope).

subzero
subzero
May 1, 2011 8:49 pm

I agree with RE.

I don’t think we know one percent of what our illustrious leaders are up to on a global scale, how much damage has been done at the molecular/genetic level or even how to repair that damage if we could identify it. If you think we can avoid collapse just watch the Oppenheimer video again (http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=14997) and multiply that by all the people involved in genetic engineering/molecular biology/biological weapons development/etc.

Then look around and realize that this current world is what has been done on the UPSIDE of our development with the best controls in place and no major geopolitical conflict. Imagine it on the downside with people who have no idea what they are doing looting/destroying facilities which contain God knows what inside.

I seriously hope ‘they’ have a plan but it is looking more and more like a clusterfuck from where I sit.

howard in nyc
howard in nyc
May 1, 2011 9:24 pm

RE sed: Anyhow, your reaction to the time appears to be of one who embraced the status quo and go with the “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” idea.

basically. my parents, uncles and aunts, and their peers, had negotiated a system of limited opportunity (not zero opportunity) in the 1930s, 40s and 50s (in the northeast us and in cali). i respected how difficult it was for them, compared to the much greater opportunity and fewer obstacles in my path. my path looked easy by contrast. why fight it? even the anti-war fight was over by the time i hit high school.

(no way was i going to nam. dad was not happy about this. fortunately it was a hypothetical, as the draft was done by the time i was 15 or 16.)

tried fighting within the system for positive change. then just to maintain the good parts of the status quo. didn’t work out too well for me. or for the system.