“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability –problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997

This past week saw an event revealing the cluelessness and ignorance of the linear thinking establishment. They are oblivious to the cyclicality of history and unaware of their precarious situation, as the mood of the country and the world portends their demise. Eric Cantor, the ultimate establishment neo-con Republican House Majority Leader, was crushed in a primary by a completely unknown economics professor, outspent by Cantor $4.9 million to $123,000. Cantor spent more at steakhouses than David Brat spent on his entire campaign. Cantor, a lackey for Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, Israel, and dozens of other mega-corporations, was the first House Majority leader defeated in a primary since the position was created in the 1890s. He won his last primary by 60%.

This was as big a shock to the Republican establishment as it was to the Democratic establishment, the mainstream corporate media establishment, and the Tea Party establishment that didn’t provide David Brat one red cent of their vast horde of contributions. They are now scrambling to generate a storyline explaining this unexplainable development as if it was entirely predictable. These wealthy, myopic, propaganda peddling, purveyors of the status quo just felt the foundation of their world shudder beneath them. Like a volcano, with pressure building within, the world as we know it is about to blow. Who gets devastated by the massive explosion and flow of molten lava is yet to be determined, but there is nothing the establishment can do to stop the eruption. This entire Deep State hierarchy has been developed over decades, as they have flawlessly implemented Edward Bernays teachings from the Propaganda playbook.

“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. …In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.” – Edward Bernays – Propaganda – 1928

The linear thinkers, who constitute the invisible government and unelected true ruling power, are flabbergasted their game plan, which has worked for the last seven decades, is failing to have the usual sway over the normally compliant masses. Lies, misinformation, deception, propaganda, easy debt, cheap oil, endless commercial expansion, relentless marketing, never ending war, politicians selected by bankers and mega-corporations, tax code created to benefit the .01%, and laws written by the lobbyists for the oligarchs designed to control the plebs and enrich the modern aristocracy, made the world go round until 2008. Linear thinkers in government, business, banking and media have been perpetuating the falsehood of a return to normalcy, recovery, and linear progress. They are willfully ignorant of history because acknowledging its cyclicality would be admitting how precarious their positions of power, wealth, and control truly are.

History does not proceed in a straight line of forward advancement. It has a seasonal nature geared to the 80 year life cycle of human beings. The most basic lesson of history is we never seem to learn the lessons of history. A period of Crisis arrives like Winter, approximately 60 years after the resolution of the prior Crisis, with a climax occurring approximately 80 years after the prior Crisis climax. The generational dynamics based upon human life cycles have lined up once again into Crisis mode. Anyone who hasn’t sensed the mood change in the country since 2008, hasn’t been paying attention. The linear thinking establishment refuses to accept the inevitability of their existing paradigm collapsing in a chaotic whirlwind of violence, death on a grand scale and decisive war. The existing social order is always swept away during a Fourth Turning.

Saeculum (climax year) Crisis (Full Era) Time from one Crisis climax to next Crisis climax
Revolutionary (1781) American Revolution(1773–1794)
Civil War (1863) Civil War(1860–1865) 82 years
Great Power (1944) Great Depressionand World War II(1929-1946) 81 years
Millennial (2025?) Global Financial Crisis(2008–2029?) 81 years?

The Global Financial Crisis, which began in September 2008, marked the beginning of a likely two decade long episode of fierce winter-like blizzard conditions that will get progressively worse as this Fourth Turning churns toward its bloody climax. The evil wealthy men and their paid off pawns in politics and the media who constitute the invisible government, governing behind the scenes, molding minds, forming tastes and suggesting ideas to the gullible masses, will not relinquish their wealth and power without a fight. They have been utilizing all emergency monetary and fiscal levers, while conducting a data disinformation campaign and utilizing their control of the dying legacy media to keep the masses distracted, entertained and confused.

The establishment has convinced a vast swath of the public to actually believe 0% interest rates for the last 5 years, adding $1 trillion per year to the already Himalayan national debt, allowing the Federal Reserve buy $3 trillion of toxic debt from their Wall Street banking cabal owners, while creating a high rate of inflation in energy, food, healthcare and tuition costs, and negative growth in real wages, is somehow beneficial to them and reflects a return to normalcy. The current state of our economic, financial, political and judicial systems, along with the fraying social fabric of society reflects EXTREME dysfunction and in no way exhibits anything resembling a normal state of affairs. The government apparatchiks, corporate media talking heads, Wall Street captured economists, and lackeys for billionaire oligarchs are highly paid liars using every Bernaysian trick to manipulate the beliefs, desires, and prejudices of the willfully ignorant masses. They capitalize on the cognitive dissonance and normalcy bias being practiced by the majority of people in the country. Like a dog chasing its tail, they have the public up in arms about meaningless social issues and ignoring the looting of the country by sociopathic bankers.

Those in power need to sell their storyline of advancement, despite the overwhelming evidence of a societal implosion and economic regression for the 99.99%. They need to distract the masses with inconsequential emotional issues like gay marriage, mass murderers, climate change, party politics, racism, and phantom terror threats, so the masses don’t focus on how badly they are being screwed by the One Party invisible government. For those who have been too dumbed down by our government public education system to even comprehend anything beyond a third grade level, we have The Kardashians, Bridezilla, Duck Dynasty, I Didn’t Know I Was Pregnant, iGadgets, Twitter, Facebook, professional sports, Hollywood blockbusters, and toxic fast food paid for with your EBT card. Our world is besieged by triviality, plagued by idiocy, inundated with propaganda, and consumed with consumption.

In a country of 318 million people, the few believe they must mold the minds of the masses in order for society to function smoothly. Of course this is a huge lie. They need to mold those minds in order to retain their power, wealth, control. They are focused on the daily dose of lies, mistruths, disinformation, and distractions required to keep the masses anesthetized. They have ignored the lessons of history and the big picture driving the Crisis events which will change the world over the next fifteen years. Fourth Turnings don’t calm down, fizzle out, or revert to what happened in the prior twenty years, just as the unyielding harsh Winter cannot revert to the glorious days of Fall or the sweltering days of Summer. There is no escaping the dire, deadly and dangerous times directly ahead of us.

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning

Strauss and Howe wrote their epic historical treatise in 1997 and their predictions, based upon centuries of generational analysis, have been uncannily accurate. The predictions are not event based, but based upon generational mood and core elements of Crisis, which were predictable over a decade before the 2008 start to this Crisis. The core elements of Debt, Civic Decay, and Global Disorder were evident to anyone with a functioning critical thinking brain, not in the employ of the establishment. These core elements are front and center today, as the Fourth Turning gains momentum like a gathering winter storm. The captured mainstream media does their utmost to obscure, downplay, and ignore these issues, but alternative truth telling websites like Zero Hedge, Mike Krieger’s Liberty Blitzkrieg, Mike Shedlock, John Rubino’s Dollar Collapse, Jim Kunstler, John Hussman, Jesse’s Cafe Americain, Charles Hugh Smith, Karl Denninger, and number of other freedom minded websites keep the spark of truth alive for those seeking it. A perusal of headlines from these sites over the last week or so provides the true nature of this worsening Fourth Turning Crisis:


Mindblowing Fact Of The Day: China Has Over 52 Million Vacant Homes

The Subprime Auto-Lending Credit Bubble Is Bursting

China HSBC PMI Misses; Economy Contracts For 5th Month In A Row

Will Spain Default?

Fed Prepares to Maintain Record Balance Sheet for Years

Steve Forbes Warns Of Economic “Catastrophe” Due To Fed’s Dollar Debasement

Obama Unveils Student Loan Debt Bubble Bailout

America’s Insatiable Demand For More Expensive Cars, Larger Homes And Bigger Debts

China Scrambling After “Discovering” Thousands Of Tons Of Rehypothecated Copper, Aluminum Missing

Western Banks Scramble As China’s “Rehypothecation Evaporation” Goes Global

Consumer Credit Has Fifth Biggest Monthly Jump In History; Revolving Credit Soars By Most Since November 2007

Abenomics’ Legacy: Japan’s Greatest “Misery” In 33 Years

NIRP Has Arrived: Europe Officially Enters The “Monetary Twilight Zone”

EU Warns Greece Is “A Cause Of Serious Concern” As Top Tax-Collector Resigns

Why Central Bank Stimulus Cannot Bring Economic Recovery

Summer Gas Prices Highest Since 2011 As Oil Hits 9-Month Highs

It Was A Reeeeeally Bad Winter: JPM Cuts Q1 GDP From -1.1% To -1.6%

How The Fed Feeds The Sharks, While Shafting Wage Earners And Savers

Fed’s Bubble Finance Is Primary Cause of Massive Wealth Gains At The Top

Former ECB Chief Economist Says Central Bank Run Monetary System Is “Pure Fiction”

More On The China Property Bubble: April New Housing Starts Down 25%; Beijing/Shanghai Sales Down 50%

What Happens After The Bubble Bursts: 85% Of Pension Funds Could Fail Due To An Era Of Niggardly Returns

Civic Decay

Across America, Police Departments Are Quietly Preparing For War

Meet The “Minerva Research Initiative” – The Pentagon’s Preparation For “Mass Civil Breakdown”

The Obama Administration Is Forcing Local Cops To Stay Silent On Surveillance

In 33 U.S. Cities, Feeding The Homeless Has Been Criminalized

Obama Popularity Plunges To New Low: “No Longer Likeable Enough”

Historic Loss: House Majority Leader Cantor Loses Virginia Primary To Tea Party’s Brat

Suspect Yells “Tell The Police, The Revolution Has Started” Before Shooting Spree In Las Vegas WalMart

Two Thirds Of Gen X Households Have Less Wealth Than Their Parents Did At The Same Age

7 In 10 Americans Believe The Crisis Is Not Over Or Worst Is Yet To Come: 52% Can’t Afford Their Homes

1 In 4 Obamacare Signups Are Faulty – But, We Are Sure Obama Never Knew Anything About It Until Now

Fed Warns The Plunge In “Routine” Jobs Won’t Slow Down Anytime Soon

US Finally Recovers All Jobs Lost Since 2007 While People Not In Labor Force Increase By 12.8 Million

Two-Thirds Of Americans Do Not Back Obama’s Decision On Bergdahl

Hiring In The US Remains Far Below Pre-Recession Levels

Half The Country Makes Less Than $27,520 A Year And 15 Other Signs The Middle Class Is Dying

The Rich Get Richest: Household Net Worth Rises To All Time High Courtesy Of $67 Trillion In Financial Assets

Challenger Job Cuts Soar 45%; Most Layoffs Since Feb 2013

It’s Not Just Europe; As Many As 16 California Counties May Seek Secession From The State

America’s Insanely Complex And Endemically Corrupt Tax Code: Mother Lode Of Crony Capitalist Plunder

Global Disorder

Al-Qaeda Jihadis Loot Over $400 Million From Mosul Central Bank, Seize Saddam’s Hometown

Al Qaeda Militants Capture US Black Hawk Helicopters In Iraq

Iraq Update: Kurds Take Kirkuk, Al Qaeda Surges Toward Baghdad

“Well-Armed” Taliban Tried To Hijack Airplane Leading To Pakistan Airport Shootout

Gruesome Footage Of ISIS Atrocities Reveals Al Qaeda Jihadists “Will Stop At Nothing”

Ukraine Military Transport Plane Shot Down, 49 Killed

Marc Faber Blasts “American Military Presence In Asia Is Completely Unacceptable”

B-1 Stealth Bomber “Friendly Fire” Strike Kills 5 US Soldiers In Afghanistan

World Needs Record Saudi Oil Supply as OPEC Convenes

Déjà vu: echoes of pre-crisis world mount

Chinese military spending exceeds $145 billion, drones advanced: U.S.

Ukraine Closes 8 Border Crossings On Reports Of Russian Troop Movement

Firefight Underway As Russian “Rebels” Cross Border Into Ukraine

US Begins Delivering F-16s To Iraq This Week, A Decade After It Wiped Out Iraq’s Air Force

Two Ukraine Helicopters Shot Down: Watch As Gunship Engages Eastern Militia In Intense Fighting

Saudi Arabia Reveals Surge In MERS Deaths: One Third Of Infected Patients Die

Japan Base Wages Decline 23 Months In A Row

Obama Calls for $1 Billion Europe Security Fund; Will Increase U.S. Military Presence in Eastern Europe

China Sends 4 More Fighter Jets To Oil Rig Area As Vietnam Threatens Legal Action

“Political Earthquake” – Nigel Farage “Big Winner” In Local Elections

Do these headlines indicate a lessening or deepening of the ongoing Crisis? You won’t see these truthful headlines in the mainstream captured media. You will see feel good headlines touting non-existent economic recoveries, decreasing unemployment rates with record levels of non-working Americans, and storylines of government, corporate and consumer austerity as debt levels reach all-time highs. You will see stories scorning Edward Snowden as a traitor for exposing the highest levels of the United States government as criminals for shredding the Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. You will see articles hyping one hundred years of shale oil and gas as energy prices approach record highs and the point of peak cheap oil has been passed. You will see publications owned by billionaires peddling hogwash about fantastic Wall Street profits entirely dependent upon mark to fantasy accounting and accounting journal entries relieving loan loss reserves as loan losses rise. You will see hyperbolic fear mongering dreck about foiled terrorist plots concocted by the FBI and DHS. You will see stories about the evil Russians and evil Chinese as our CIA promotes the overthrow of democratically elected officials in countries around the globe. You will see stories about the dangers of foreign countries conducting cyber-warfare against the U.S. as our government intercepts every electronic communication of our allies and citizens. It’s as if we are lost in a blizzard of lies.

Debt, Civic Decay, Global Disorder

Propaganda and the molding of minds cannot change the course of history. Those in power can ignore the facts, but they can’t change the facts. During the “austere” period from 2009 through until today, total credit market debt in the U.S. has expanded from $53.4 trillion to $59.4 trillion. It now stands at 350% of GDP, even after the government added $500 billion out of thin air to GDP to further their deception of recovery. The U.S. national debt is at a record $17.5 trillion and goes up by $2.0 billion per day. This doesn’t include the $200 trillion of unfunded liabilities politicians have committed taxpayers to pay over the next few decades. Corporate debt is at record highs as CEO’s borrow to buy back their stock at record highs in order to boost EPS and drive their compensation higher.

US total debt 2014

Consumer debt has surged to new highs reaching $3.2 trillion, as government pushed subprime student loan debt and government peddled subprime auto loan lure more math challenged dupes into the banker web of debt. Even credit card debt surged in May as people can no longer make monthly payments for energy, food, rent, and healthcare. Retailers continue to report horrific profits as disposable income has been disposed of by the Federal Reserve’s QE and ZIRP “solutions”. The immense levels of debt plague the entire world as total global debt now surpasses $230 trillion, 313% of world GDP. The 40% surge in global debt since the 2008 debt created collapse is unprecedented in its scope and lunacy. Trying to resolve a debt problem created by criminal Wall Street bankers by allowing Wall Street controlled central bankers, politicians, and government bureaucrats to issue more debt, reduce interest rates to zero, and enrich the oligarchs, will end in catastrophe. The house of cards is teetering as trust dissipates, rehypothecated assets evaporate, the suppression of price discovery fails and the rigged stock market crashes for the third time in fourteen years.

The 2008 global financial crash was the catalyst for this Fourth Turning and the next leg down will unleash the fury of the masses as their remaining wealth, along with their hopes and dreams are obliterated. The civic decay is unmistakably visible, like a fissure in the road after an earthquake, and has left the masses angry, confused, dependent, ignorant, distracted, and suspicious. The extreme and growing wealth inequality driven by Federal Reserve policies, corporate lobbyist written government regulations and tax laws, and bankers controlling the political, economic, financial, and media levers has reached levels previously associated with collapse and revolution. The greed, hubris and arrogance of the .01% will lead to their downfall.

Screen Shot 2014-03-29 at 9.23.25 PM

A country with 102 million of its 247 million working age population not working is a powder-keg and the politicians are acting like slow witted monkeys lighting matches. With 20% of the 145 million jobs part-time, more than half low paying service industry jobs, real wages lower than they were in 1998, and a median salary of $25,000, it’s understandable why 20% of the population relies on food stamps to survive. The discontent is growing. We got a preview of how the establishment will deal with disgruntlement during the 2011 Occupy Wall Street protests. Liberal Democrat mayors aligned with Fox News neo-cons, Wall Street bankers, and police state thugs to eradicate, beat, tear gas, and pepper spray young people exercising their right to free speech protesting the wolves of Wall Street, who had pulled of the largest heist in human history with absolutely no consequences for their criminality. Both OWS and the Tea Party were co-opted by the establishment in short order and have been used by the One Party of oligarchs as a means to divide and conquer, by keeping the masses blaming liberal or conservative phantoms for the state of disunion.

The seemingly never ending revelations from the hero of this Fourth Turning – Edward Snowden – of government surveillance regarding every electronic communication of every American by the NSA is proof of a complete disregard for Constitutionally guaranteed protections by the powers that be. The current administration in conjunction with the hacks from the two headed party ignore, flaunt and show disdain for the Bill of Rights and legal precedent as they run roughshod over the citizens. The transformation of our republic into an authoritarian surveillance police state is almost complete.

The militarization of local police forces by the DHS, military training exercises in major cities, and plans being drawn up by the authorities to confront civil unrest all point towards the coming breakdown of civil society. The complete lockdown of Boston to apprehend two teenage cooking utensil terrorists was a dry run and probably gave the oligarchs confidence in their plan, as Bostonians cowered in their homes as heavily armed police thugs pissed on the Fourth Amendment by conducting door to door searches. If you listen closely, you can hear the fabric of our civilization being torn asunder.

The past few weeks have seen global disorder reach new heights, as Iraq has become Mission Un-Accomplished, the Ukraine explodes into civil war as Russia cuts off their natural gas, violent protests continue to rock Brazil, Egypt, Spain, Greece, France, Turkey and a myriad of other hotspots around the world. The very same forces Obama, McCain and the military industrial complex have been arming in Syria to fight a dictator who was our ally, are now ransacking Iraq, murdering the people we put into power when we deposed another dictator who had been our ally when he was fighting our sworn enemy – Iran. It seems Iran is now helping Iraq fight these jihadists, as they slowly but surely gain control over Iraq. The EU has papered over their national insolvency problems with more debt, while imposing austerity measures on the peasants. See French Revolution for the ultimate resolution of this banker-centric solution. The endemic fraud in China, along with an imploding real estate market, and corruption on an epic scale are creating a perfect storm which will derail the China miracle meme.

Meanwhile, the new dictator in Egypt who overthrew the democratically elected government, after our former dictator ally was deposed when Obama refused to support him, has clamped down on the citizens with his military force. The Ukraine is being torn apart after the CIA and their counterparts in the EU undermined the democratically elected government and started a civil war to undermine Russian influence in that country. To an impartial observer, you might think the American Empire is purposely sowing seeds of discontent, war, and disorder around the globe. Never ending war benefits the military industrial complex, as tremendous profits are generated from the sale of arms to all parties involved. Iraq and Syria are good for the bottom line of the U.S. Defense Industry. War and global disorder also benefit the worldwide banking cabal, as the only way to fund these misadventures is through debt. As we all know, debt is what makes this world go round – until it doesn’t.

There has been a virtual mainstream media blackout regarding the Ukraine as government forces bomb and murder civilians. The billionaires running America need to support the billionaire president of the Ukraine because he is one of them. Truth has no place in modern governmental affairs. The mainstream media ignores the fact the United States has armed Sunni terrorists in Syria who are now on the verge of overrunning Baghdad, as they slaughter Iraqi Shiites by the thousands. They ignore the fact that Iraq was a modern, stable, non-religious, oil producing nation under Hussein, with no Al Qaeda or sectarian violence. The United States invaded a sovereign country under false pretenses, wasted over $1 trillion of precious national wealth, killed over 100,000 Iraqis, sustained over 37,000 physical casualties, untold numbers of mental casualties, and now Iraq is dissolving into a quagmire of religious violence threatening oil supplies and driving prices higher. After 13 years and 21,000 casualties in Afghanistan, the Taliban are stronger than ever as we declare victory and slink away. Libya has been another feather in the cap of American foreign policy as we deposed another former ally dictator and have left the country in disarray and civil war. Just because the American corporate media doesn’t report these facts, doesn’t make them not so.

It should be clear to anyone willing to open their eyes and not be influenced by the establishment propaganda that this Fourth Turning is entering a new ominous phase, as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis catalyst has ignited a volcanic eruption which has put tremendous strain on the areas of extreme vulnerability – debt, civic decay, global disorder. The few aware Americans who frequent truth telling websites are frustrated and impatient, waiting for the tsunami of change to sweep over the world. History operates at its own cyclical pace. An accelerated Fourth Turning would likely not be a positive development. The Civil War Crisis was accelerated, resulting in 700,000 deaths in four years. With the worldwide proliferation of nuclear missiles, this Fourth Turning could be over with the push of a button. I don’t think anyone is rooting for that outcome.

You can easily be distracted by the day to day machinations of evil men, relentless propaganda, meaningless distractions, and various forms of bread and circuses. But history is unforgiving. The details and events will be different, but the path of this Crisis will follow past Crisis periods. The worldwide debt bubble will burst. The resulting loss of wealth, jobs, entitlements and trust will ignite mass civil disorder as years of civic decay lead to a swift societal collapse. With China also entering a Fourth Turning, a global debt implosion, resource wars breaking out, religious extremism, and nationalistic drums beating, the likelihood of global war is high.

For some perspective, six years into the last Fourth Turning in 1935, GDP had risen by 30% from its 1933 low and FDR’s New Deal was supposedly lifting the country from its depths. In reality, the population was experiencing a worsening depression and a few years later a world war killed 65 million people. After six years the Civil War Crisis was resolved with 5% of the nation’s male population killed, a president assassinated, and the South left in ruins. This Fourth Turning will proceed along its destined path at its own pace. The molten ingredients of debt, civic decay and global disorder are conjoining in an explosive concoction leading to a conflagration which will flow across the globe on a scale not seen since the Second World War. There is no escaping the trials and tribulations awaiting us. The outcome is uncertain. It could end in glory or destruction. Individual sacrifice, shared burdens, courageous stands and inspired leadership will be required to survive the perilous trials ahead.

I see the bad moon arising

I see trouble on the way

I see earthquakes and lightnin’

I see bad times today

Creedence Clearwater Revival

“Imagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:

  • Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
  • Social distress, with violence fueled by class, race, nativism, or religion and abetted by armed gangs, underground militias, and mercenaries hired by walled communities
  • Political distress, with institutional collapse, open tax revolts, one-party hegemony, major constitutional change, secessionism, authoritarianism, and altered national borders
  • Military distress, with war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction” –  The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997


  1. Brilliant, as always. I think I’ve handed out three copies of The Fourth Turning in just the past seven days. More and more people are beginning to realize that history is repeating itself and looking for ways to stop it. I tell them just to prepare for it, because history will repeat itself no matter what you do.

    Thanks for writing another excellent synopsis of where we are in this 4T. Let’s hope you can continue to chronicle its unfolding so there’s a record to leave behind for others.

  2. Great article. All those headlines, the dead bodies, the complete whitewashing and brainwashing by the MSM, the criminals in Washington, the criminal banksters and Wall Street. The oligarchs and their minion have really set the world on a collision course with complete and utter destruction, including a global economic collapse and most likely world war. The USSA is finished as a country, and is more dangerous than ever; the NSA, CIA, Obama’s support of Al Qaeda, the Mexican invasion; a dying animal is always the most dangerous. The wholesale destruction of this country is imminent, and will have to happen, but the way it’s looking, everyone else is going down as well.

    Seems to me, this planet is just a big school, a learning center, and it’s why the same things have to happen every 80 years, as a new set of students are born and die. The same lessons have to be learned, over and over and over, throughout history. Then you graduate when you die, and maybe learned something. Otherwise, I wouldn’t know what to make of it, except the insanity just keeps happening, so there must be some reason for it, but only God knows what that is.

    Every day we still have the opportunity to enjoy life, the decent people that are left (there are but a few anymore), try and help our kids, and try to turn a blind eye to all the destruction and parasitism that surrounds us. It’s getting more challenging every day, and it’s only going to get much worse. The debt, the FSA, the corruption, fascism, socialism, wars, they’ll play out again, with disastrous results, as always. But it’s not a carnival ride, you simply can’t get off, you can only change your perceptive.

  3. I like to hang a flag on my porch on patriotic holidays. I think this year I’m going to hang it upside down.

    Admin thanks for a good overview on the progress of the turning.

  4. I think the spark was clearly in the 2000 election of George W. Bush. Americans, already very polarized, showed little respect for their own political process. They could have just been patient and counted all the votes. Instead there was this strange urgency to declare a winner and short-circuit the process.

    The result of this was that Bush was viewed as illegitimate by half the voters, and his administration responded in kind. When 9/11 hit, the one thing that nobody in power respected was the rule of law. This was followed by a disregard for even basic facts in the run up to the invasion of Iraq.

  5. OBL was quoted in a pre-9/11 interview that he was going to turn the USA “into a shadow of it’s former self”. I’d say he succeeded beyond his wildest dreams. And the wars, the war on drugs, the war on poverty, the war on terror, the war against the middle class. The plague of multi-culturalism and diversity. All wars do is destroy everything, and there’s not much left to destroy anymore.

  6. This is a great article. I believe it does a fantastic job of portraying the true state of affairs we are in.

    However, I don’t agree that the invisible government and the unelected true ruling powers are linear thinkers. I think this grossly underestimates their abilities and capabilities. I believe these people are very smart, are operating with much more information than you or I, and are coordinating globally to attempt to navigate the maelstrom of debt and decline which has been created.

    My personal opinion is that the “rulers” are attempting to engineer or control the collapse in order to keep the strata of society aligned. Everyone ends up with less, but the poor stay poor, the middle muddles through or becomes poorer, and the rich stay rich and in control in relative terms. Right now they are buying time to get positioned to maximize the likelihood of success.

    I don’t think the “rulers” will be able to pull this off. Not because they are thinking linearly or are not intelligent. As this article points out, there are just too many things happening to exert control over for an extended period of time. They will just lose control over one or a number of events which compound to cause the collapse and then a certain amount of randomness will prevail.

    “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
    ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

  7. ” All wars do is destroy everything,”

    Precisely their explicit and deliberate purpose as an economic driver and mechanism of destroying excess production, excess population, etc. according to the very interesting “Report from Iron Mountain: On the Possibility and Desirability of Peace” “by” Leonard C. Lewin. This came out in 1966 and there is some debate of if the report contained in it was the result of a secret government effort for a serious intellectual exercise on the topic or if Lwein made the whole thing up.

    IMHO is does not matter which. The thing rings true and telegraphs many things since then such as:

    Population control through substances in food and water (I doubt I need to elaborate here)
    Some form of slavery (debt slavery)
    Environmental Pollution model as a form of social control (global warming/climate change)
    Blood Games (Hunger Games – well maybe not truly present in the U.S. but can it be far off?)

    Here’s a quote:

    ” …a control institution is needed, as the “alternate enemy” needed to hold society together. The relentless and irreversible advance of unemployability at all levels of society, and the similar extension of generalized alienation from accepted values may make some such program necessary even as an adjunct to the war system”. (DJ – We are currently in a war system).

    Hmmmm… alternate enemy: vets, the non-PC, while people especially white males, Christians, conservatives, teaparty and similar such groups.

    This guy must have been in the know even if he did write the entire book himself. Easy to find as a download on the internet.

  8. Gayle says:

    “I like to hang a flag on my porch on patriotic holidays. I think this year I’m going to hang it upside down.”

    May I suggest Gayle (only because I know you know how important words are) that instead of “I think this year I’m going to..” which connotes “, maybe I will, I’m thinking about it”; that you word it in your mind as “This year I AM going to..” which is a statement of commitment to displaying a patriotic symbol in a state of distress. I’m glad you brought the idea up because:

    What an excellent way of letting TPTB know that “We the People” are soooo on to Them, but Gayle doing it will only have meaning for her. Imagine thousands and thousands of Americans doing the same thing this July 4th. This idea could gain a lot of ground if the truth-telling websites mentioned would plant the seed in their readers’ minds. Let’s call it “Flipping Bernays’ Propaganda On It’s Head.”

    And it can begin here….like with The Burning Platform.


    Zero Hedge, Mike Krieger’s Liberty Blitzkrieg, Mike Shedlock, John Rubino’s Dollar Collapse, Jim Kunstler, John Hussman, Jesse’s Cafe Americain, Charles Hugh Smith, Karl Denninger…..what say you?

    Year ago my parents put a friggin 30 foot flag pole in the backyard which faces the 6th green. On July 4th I WILL take the flag my mother was given by the Navy (served in the 40’s) when he died in 1999, and I WILL hang it upside down…..once I figure out how to work the ropes to get it up there.

    It will probably fuck-up some of the golfers’s games when they see it. GOOD!


  9. Wow, another brilliant essay…kudos once again, Admin!

    Even the Pope is weighing in on the bankers:

    “Rome (AFP) – Pope Francis on Monday denounced those getting rich through speculation in financial markets, calling on them to use their investments for the good of humanity.

    “It is increasingly intolerable that financial markets are shaping the destiny of peoples rather than serving their needs, or that the few derive immense wealth from financial speculation while the many are deeply burdened by the consequences,” he said.

    The pope, who has said he wants to create “a poor church for the poor”, has frequently spoken out against the “idolatry of money” since his election last year.

    The 77-year-old said “it is important that ethics once again play its due part in the world of finance” and that markets should “serve the interests of peoples and the common good of humanity”.

    Francis singled out speculation in agricultural markets calling it “a scandal which seriously compromises access to food on the part of the poorest members of our human family”.;_ylt=AwrBJR_LD59T4UoAfEvQtDMD

  10. This is like the knockout game of political commentary. Not sure why anonymous above has his panties in twist (9/11? Really? If everyone knew the truth tomorrow would it change a thing?) but calling the piece above “shoddy prose” is classic sour grapes.

    Excellent analysis, as always. Wish it weren’t so, but them’s the breaks.

    1. HF

      You were witness to the appearance of the sheep loving traitor – David Pierre.

      His hatred for me is only matched by his love of sheep.

      1. Actual picture of the 9/11 nutjob David Pierre. He eats, sleeps and breaths Building 7.

        PULL IT David Pierre.

        1. David Pierre’s life is so pathetic, he will wait all day for Zero Hedge to post the article so he can be the 1st to post the same drivel he has posted on my last 100 articles. He is a cut and paste 9/11 machine. He is so stupid he still believes Smokey and I are the same person. They don’t make them as dimwitted as David Pierre anymore.

  11. Strauss & Howe foresaw everything EXCEPT the grinding length of time the crisis would take to play out. They underestimated the depravity of the economic bosses to prolong the status quo. We are awash in a sea of economic, social and political, bullshit. This is fine for the mouth breathing masses, staring at the smartphone permanently planted in their hands. For the thinking man, it is a grinding torture. I’ve heard recently of acquaintances admit they have decided to enter “ostrich mode,” rather than be subject to the barrage of bad news. We are unwillingly participants in third grade pageant, playing out day after day, as the talking heads spout platitudes only to the lowest common social denominator. It is unpleasant to go out because the circus freak inhabitants of this nation, at the urging of their true master, the smartphone, have increasingly surrendered all decorum and dignity. They are rude, uncouth, obnoxious, physically repulsive, and in many cases downright dangerous. You don’t know what’s going to set one of the steroid riddled Mountain Dew blooded thugs off next.

    Whatever the Fourth Turning has in store for us, it’s best to get on with it. Prolonging the descent only leads to more of a fiery crash. Sad to say, only suffering will awaken many to the true nature of their reality. In the meantime, you will be ostracized and outcast at large. William Sherman, despite his Slobodan Milosevic tendencies, was almost a clairvoyant when it came to the crisis of his times. “After the bombardment of Fort Sumter, Sherman hesitated about committing to military service and ridiculed Lincoln’s call for 75,000 three-month volunteers to quell secession, reportedly saying: “Why, you might as well attempt to put out the flames of a burning house with a squirt-gun.”” His genocidal career was nearly destroyed by such truthful statements. The timing component is crucial to a crisis, and the hardest to nail down.

    I sincerely hope we have chosen our own life parameters, and the time in which we live. AWD’s theory of a ‘teaching planet’ above makes quite a bit of sense. What a consolation it would be to know that we have incarnated here much in the same way a college student decides to select a difficult curriculum. In such a case, most of us are probably feeling we may have overestimated the workload.

  12. Hi Admin,

    I will bite (I admit David Pierre was highly counter-productive in his post). At the time of 911 I worked at a University in the US and saw the stuff from right after building 1 on TV at work and then later at home. I specifically remember the comments about building 7 getting ready to go down before it happened. I probably even have it on tape myself as I have a big pile of VHS tapes that I recorded on the news on that day and for quite a while afterwards (went home early from work that day as my wife is from NYC, was freaking out and had/still has relatives living pretty close to ground zero). Curious as to what you think of building 7 and I apolgize in advance if you have addressed it. Seems like the whole event fits in well with this 4th turning and diverting attention from the truth to prolong the agony.

  13. While always a skeptic, a big turning point and WTF moment for me that ultimately led me to this site was when Bush, a couple days after 911 said go out and shop (or something very similar). WTF. I now appreciate what he meant on more than one level (keep the worthless consumer economy going, diversion, etc) but it was so jarring to me to hear him say that it really helped me to start becoming way more aware of the matrix.

  14. Admin ,another great article about our hopeless situation. Whole populations in this nation refuse to take the time to examine the evidence.People in my family say I’m over reacting when I tell them to Plan,Prepare , Prep.They will not take the time to read TBP must less any of the other sites. I have given up on most people. Nothing will change until We have a complete collapse. Sometimes it’s really depressing but there is hope more will wake up.Keep up the

  15. Agree with BB:

    “They will not take the time to read TBP must less any of the other sites. I have given up on most people. Nothing will change until We have a complete collapse. Sometimes it’s really depressing but there is hope more will wake up.”

    Trying to wake some up is enough to make me want to go crazy. My step daughter and her husband (both well off professionals in the Atlanta area) actually posted on her Facebook that hunting for a house was the worst trying and most thing thing for people in the U.S.!! This from the family who buys new cars every few years (just bought two in the last couple years), has no preps (and I am talking mental and spiritual here as well) in place, no idea of a plan B, getting mortgaged to the limit of their affordability, spends at least $7k per year (as a family) on eating in restaurants, etc.

    May God help them as I can’t.

    Those that have the resources to change their lives and yet blindly go on as if nothing is changing. Argh.

  16. Typo: “was the worst trying and most thing thing ”

    should be:

    “was the worst and most trying thing”


    1. Just posted on ZH.

      Pathetic Pierre is in such a frenzy of hate, he made two cut and paste pre-written diatribes in a matter of seconds.

      He gives pathetic losers a bad name.

  17. T4C

    You are right, it sounded like I was hedging a bit. About two minutes prior to the post the idea occurred to me, so I was still in the process of thinking through the decision, not that it took a long time. It would be fantastic to see upside flags all over America on the 4th. I will talk it up to my neighbors at least.

  18. That picture of a banjo pickin’ Pierre reminds me of when I was with an insurance agent (as I the field auditor) and we were way up in a “holler” in eastern Kentucky. He warned me that I had to watch out for the “three sisters” in the somewhat ramshackle house.

    We went in for me to ask their mother (I guess I should say ma) about her insurance policies. (Yes, some people on those situations actually maintain life insurance, or at least they did in the 1990s, probably mainly to afford the funeral). They were all sitting in the dark and somewhat dingy living room . The sisters appeared to be in their late teens and twenties and all had the look (you will know what I mean if you have been in those parts). The one that was the most off of the three kept looking at my and ended up blurting out to me “You shore are purty”. That was awkward.

    Later the agent said I was lucky to get out of there… maybe Pierre is their brother. 🙂

  19. this is the last of the cycle. the elite have seen this play too many times to screw it up again. agenda 21, “the hunger games” society will live on well past the regular cycle. unless god shows up

  20. “Debt Jubilee. I believe it is the biblical solution.” ———- Work-In-Progress

    How would we know? It was never actual implemented.

    Soccer Jubilee; USA, 2 — Ghana, 1

  21. Unless God turns up…

    Interestingly, much biblical scholarly work points to approximately 2025 to 2032 as reign of the anti-Christ. With God showing up right afterwards. Pretty much in line with the end sequence of this fourth turning.

    One good site for those who are interested in reading more from a Christian academic perspective is
    and specifically

  22. Great piece admin – thanks for it, T4T pieces always help me revisit what I know to be true……its coming but the long grind is a grind. Thanks again.

  23. “Interestingly, much biblical scholarly work points to approximately 2025 to 2032 as reign of the anti-Christ” ———— Didius Julianus says:

    See this list of numbers?

    44, 53, 80, 100 -200, 130, 381, 400, 400, 435, 470, 500, 500, 950, 950, 950-80, 950, 964, 965, 968, 968-9, 969, 979, 980, 983-4, 987-91, 989, August, 989-1000, 990s, 990s-1010s, 992 ,994-1000, 1002, 1003, 1004, 1005-1006, 1006, 1009-10, 1011-1012, 1012-1014, 1018, 1022, 1024, 1025, 1026-7, 1028, 1029-32. 1030-33, 1030-46, 1031-3, 1114, 1135-1202, 1186, 1415, 1420, 1524-1526, 1533, 1534, 1572, 1621, 1650-1660, 1656, 1656, 1666, 1715, 1715, 1809, 1814, 1836, 1843-1844, 1859, 1874, 1881, 1910, 1914, 1918, 1920, 1925, 1941, 1953-AUG, 1957-APR, 1960, 1967, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000 and every year since

    Those are years. That’s a PARTIAL list of the hundreds of predictions concerning the year of Jeebus’ return, made by popes, saints, scholars, and various other dumb-asses.

    And here you come with 2025 to 2032 …. while making the absurd claim that “biblical scholarly work” predicts it.

    This is Admin’s epic thread, and I will NOT under any circumstances say another thing about it on this thread.

    But, in closing, you’re fucking nuts and you ought to take that bullshit somewhere else.


  24. And remember, the Mormons tell us that Jesus visited the Mayans, so the Mayans must have had a good basis for their prediction.


  25. I’m sure the long suppressed Mayan-Mormon alliance lends credence to many untold wonders and mysteries. And we are all figments of Gukumatz’ imagination now that a new super-cycle has started at the end of 2012. Yes, all this and more can be revealed, simply suspend belief and walk through this door…
    . 🙂

  26. “The 80 year life cycle of human beings”

    The average lifespan of human beings has only recently been about 80 years, and primarily in the US and Europe.

    It was 65 years in the 1930’s, and less before then. So, why is the natural cycle 80 years?

    Further, which cohort of humans controls the historical cycle? Why not the cohort which is 20 years later than the cited one?

    It is easy to see patterns which aren’t there. Humans evolved to see patterns.

    The pattern I see is that politicians are opportunistic liars and a bit more than half the population believes them.

  27. Stucky, I’m sure someone has called for the end of the world every year mankind has been around, no matter how long one believes that to be! 🙂

  28. Didius Julianus @8:08pm — You remember correctly that Bush told Americans to go out and shop, to keep the economy going because that’s how we would “win” over the terrorists. Remember how everyone bought window flags for their cars? And how Bush claimed that the “American Dream” meant being able to own your own home, even when you couldn’t afford one?

    Those are all signs of late 3T / Unraveling behaviors. We were just barely becoming aware that our society was hopelessly corrupted and in need of change. But think, too: 2002 saw the height of the housing bubble, with people getting into bidding wars and builders scrambling to build the biggest and most upscale buildings.

    Then, in 2005, Katrina hit. For the first time, we watched how government was so completely inept at doing one of the most basic of its mandates: disaster relief. We’d assisted with the 2004 Asian tsunami relief efforts, yet we couldn’t do anything in Louisiana but watch events unfold in the Super Dome and the looting in the streets. It took Bush days to get there to review the damage. But there was little outcry; people donated clothes, food and water, took “refugees” into their cities and went on with their lives.

    It wasn’t until 2008 and the Lehman collapse before people started saying, “hell, no!” to things like the TARP bailout of the TBTF banks. Yet Congress passed them anyway. We started talking about the national debt. We really started (collectively, as a nation) to rethink the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. We turned out in droves to elect a president who said he was going to change all that, stop the wars, close Guantanamo, finally regulate Wall Street.

    And yes, when I say “we,” I mean the nation of American citizens. Not those of us who were already aware, already questioning police actions in New Orleans, against the wars before they even started. Remember, 4Ts are about society’s mood shifting, and that generally means the majority. Like any group, there’s a bell curve, and we’re on the front end. It’s the middle that I speak of above.

    2008 definitely saw a mood change. And that mood kept changing as we realized this president wasn’t going to follow through on his promises, that his speeches were empty rhetoric. That’s when the 4T really catalyzed… when the People realized that their government no longer worked with their consent, but acted in direct defiance of it. Can you imagine the outcry over another Katrina today? Even the Deepwater Horizon spill in 2010 got more public attention than Katrina. And Hurricane Sandy in 2012 saw improved response, albeit the still-inept government FEMA actions.

    So we’re six years into a 20-year Crisis. We’ve been through the “best” part of it, where everything seemed somewhat normal, where it was easy to say there were “green shoots” of a recovery. As we all know from Admin’s economy and financial posts, that simply isn’t true, but most people could still convince themselves everything was fine, just like we thought in 2002 that buying real estate was a good investment, particularly for retirement.

    We have a long way to go, and our darkest days are still ahead of us. We won’t be on the other side of this Crisis until 2025 or later. And, even then, we’re not guaranteed that it will be a favorable conclusion, particularly for those of us who want to see the U.S. return to the ‘good old days.” 4Ts just don’t work that way. We’ll see old institutions like our form of government, even the concepts we hold dear — liberty, freedom, self-government — tested and perhaps replaced with something else.

    Only time will tell.

  29. Yep, nothing like telling an anecdotal story that runs down us poor, dumb, shoeless, toothless hayseeds here in Kentucky to help illustrate a point… complete with bashing accents and speech patterns.

    The fact that said comments were typed on a computer powered by electricity that was generated by a coal burning power plant – burning coal from Eastern Kentucky – is lost on the pretentious douchenozzle who wrote them…

    You can eat a dick, Did-I-anus or whatthefuckever your name is. Who would take the name of a fucking failure of a loser of a Roman Emperor anyway? Dumbass was so bad, not only did he have to buy his way to the throne, but his first act as Caesar was to devalue the currency. People hated him so much, they pitched rocks at him whenever he showed his face… in the end, they killed his ass after a whopping 9 weeks of rule. Some role model…

    Just make a grilled cheese using a generous helping of fumundah and choke on it…

    @ Admin

    Well done. Another outstanding piece. This is the type of writing that keeps me coming back here…

  30. Thinker – Fantastic summary and encapsulation, thanks! I had forgotten about all those flag stickers. While I no longer subscribe (too nauseating) I still have all the back issues of Time and Newsweek from all during this time. While I know some must be due to my awareness, there is a perceptible dumbing down and pursuit of trivialities evident in these mags (and blatant on their covers) that has gotten worse over time.

    Heck, I saw a few months ago that Time has different covers for different regions of the world. The article pointing this out noted that the trivial cover was on the U.S. version while a serious issue was on the others.

  31. Hi Billy,

    Well, I grew up in the south in lived in Kentucky itself for over 20 years and get my share of ribbing for some of my accent. Me saying “howdy” really drives my damn Yankee wife up the wall (she grew up in Queens, NYC!) My mom grew up as some people would call “poor white trash”.

    What the govt is doing to the coal industry is criminal. I used to work for a major Kentucky utility and think coal can be a perfectly suitable energy source.

    The story that offended you is accurate, including how the words were spoken. I have plenty more from all over the eastern half of the U.S. including the big shitties (I will tell one sometime of inner city south side Chicago, Camden, NJ, some really bad places in Miami, etc. If you want to look at it that way, I am an equal opportunity offender. I also tell it how I actually experienced it and the story I related was brought to mind because of admin’s picture.

    You make my point about Didius Julianus. As a collector of ancient Roman coins for over 40 years I well know Roman history. What could fit more with the times that that sack of excrement? I guess my ironic name did not go over that way for you.

    Anyway, I love the hard working folks of Kentucky and all over the place for the matter. Does not change what I saw or experienced. I have another true story from the same job about the road kill coon that was cooking away in the oven of a trailer home way up in the mountains just north of Knoxville, Tennessee… those are interesting stories. The scary stories are the ones from the inner cities… we stopped at a house in Miami that was being staked out by police for suspected drug dealing and we were in a Cadillac(!! – dumb Fuck that I am I took the free upgrade, not thinking we would be driving that car because the agent’s car was broken down) and walked up to the house in suits. The police thought initially we might have been the kingpins but believed we were just poor old insurance agents and the like. Luckily that was the early 1990s, probably would have been beat to death by the police today.

    People are very easy to take offense, probably a sign of the times. 🙂

    So bless you and rest easy.

  32. Hi Billy,

    I actually gave you a thumbs up!! 🙂

    One correction to your assumptions: “The fact that said comments were typed on a computer powered by electricity that was generated by a coal burning power plant – burning coal from Eastern Kentucky”. Well, actually these messages are being typed on a computer in New Zealand so the power is from either hydro or wind (90% chance). Still, used to be from power from coal in Kentucky. Have no problem with coal as I noted above.

    Do you know if anything can be done about the criminal shut down of coal plants in the US? Seriously, a friend of mine at LG&E said they are shutting some down. This will not end well.

  33. Best overview of the state of our world I’ve seen so far, fitting together the pieces of the puzzle in a cogent way. But what an ugly picture it makes eh? It chills you right down to the bone.

  34. I do not know Fourth Turnings from a hole in the ground. I am glad Admin is able to understand the cyclical/historic nature of these things.

    There is much value in the message the Admin spreads – that the shit is about to hit the fan well and truly. The reasons why are well documented here (by him and many others) – debt, feelings of entitlement, welfare state, loss of family structures, failure to educate the children of the country properly, the over-reach of government, the loss of Constitutional rights, etc.

    These things I understand. And I thank Jim for continuing to get the message out.

  35. I’m of a different opinion as regards your timeline. I believe Strauss an Howe have indicated that the millenial birth years began in 1982 and ended at the Fourth turning in 2001 on 9/11, which provided a very strong point of reference and approx. 18 or 19 year generational length. This would then point to a crisis around 2020 + or – rather than 2025. This means the storm is closer on the horizon .

  36. The big problem I have with Strauss & Howe and 4th Turning theory is nowhere in it do I see a recognition of resource limits or population overshoot. It seems to indicate we will repeat the same process in perpetuity, but I can’t see how this repeats in another 20 years.

    Do Strauss & Howe ever look at resource scarcity or overshoot in their 4th Turning analysis?


  37. presenting right now is the perfect moment and conditions for a nuclear strike.
    it will take courage.
    chilling historical place we have reached.

  38. Actually, the world is in this:
    Kali Yuga:
    The Patriarchal Dark Age

    Durga defends us from the perils of Kali Yuga
    Kali Yuga, the Dharma-Ending Age, the Age of Iron. Most traditions have a name for the final Dark Age. What does it mean to us?

    Modern Western thought pictures time as a straight line. Traditional thought tells us that time goes in cycles. The most recent version of Modern Western thought (a few hundred years old) sees time, in human terms, as a constant “progress”. This tendency came to its fullest fruition in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, which were characterised by unbridled optimism about human progress and its Utopian future. Since then, this optimism has become decidedly muted and many views of the future are dystopian.

    I’m not done yet:

    The real problem of our times? Read about the Yadu tribe of Yudhishthira, the ones descended from the Yona/Yoni Tribe:

    The word “Yona” in the Pali language, and the analogues “Yavana” in Sanskrit are words used in ancient India to designate Greek speakers. “Yona” and “Yavana” are both transliterations of the Greek word for “Ionians” (Homeric Greek: Iaones, Ancient Greek: *Iawones), who were probably the first Greeks to be known in the East.

    The Yavanas are mentioned in the Buddhist discourse of the Middle Length Sayings, in which the Buddha mentions to the Brahman Assalayana the existence of the Kamboja and Yavana people who have only two castes, master or slave. The direct identification of the word “Yavana” with the Greeks at such an early time (6th-5th century BCE) can be doubted.[1]

    Yep, “Master and Slave” mentality. Sound familiar? ONLY MASTER & SLAVE. NEANDERTHAL MLEECHAS.

    These are the tribes of Central Asia merged with AnatolianRg Vedic tribes that formed the MONGOLS and HUNS.
    Yahweh worshipers.

    “This usage was shared by many of the countries east of Greece, from the Mediterranean to India:
    Egyptians used the word j-w-n(-n)-’.
    Assyrians used the word Iawanu.
    Persians used the word Yauna or Yavanu.
    Indians used the word Yavana in Mahabharata and other historic texts.
    Sri Lankans used the word Yona in Mahawamsa and other historic texts.
    In Ancient Hebrew writings the word was Yāvān (and still is, in modern Israeli Hebrew: יוון)
    In Arabic, Turkish, Persian and Urdu it is Yunan.”

    “Yahweh” was a MAN. I know who he was, and one can gaze on his face any time they like.

    Oddly enough, in death, he is posed with an ISLAMIC GESTURE. And what does this wikipedia article close with:

    The terms “Yona”, “Yonaka” or “Yavana” literally referred to the Greeks. However were termed as “Mlechas” probably due to the barbaric behaviour as invaders. Indian languages did not address the difference based on religion early on but after the arrival of Islam to the subcontinent, more than Mussalaman or Muslim, appellation Yavana along with Turuka, Turuska, Tajik, and Arab came to be used for invaders professing Islam as their religion.”

    Yep, “Yona” = Ionia = “Greek” Anatolians speaking LUWIAN. LEVITE.

    They settled in Akka. You know it as “ISREAL.”

  39. Yadu=Juda(h). Yudhisthira = Yud(a)h/Asherah. The YHW-Asherah temples found in Occupied Palestine. Found together painted on pottery from 8th centry BC. With his twin brother: Ba’al.

    Wearing horns.

    You saw the “Desolation of Smaug” movie? The spear they killed the dragon with?

    DO YOU KNOW THAT MYTH??? That is “The Spear of the Jew” that SHIVA carries.

    Seems a good prince named Sarruma (Saruman) was tricked into assisting Tae Shub/Tae Sheba, the Storm God, into killing his “dragon-lady” MOTHER-IN-LAW. “Tarhunt” Hittites called Tae Sheba…the movie called him “Thorin” because Tarhunt/Tae(king) Sheba (Shiva) is Shiva/Thor.

    Carved on stone in the mountains of Turkey: Tudhaliya and Sarruma. Didn’t Peter Jackson’s dwarves seem a bit “Kosher” to you in that silly movie?

    That’s because they WERE! Judaism, Christianinity, Buddhism, Islam…ALL SPRING from the Aryan Vedic mythology @ 70,000 years old. Right down to Krishna’s CARPENTER FATHER.

  40. Re: Flying the flag upside down.

    You may end up drawing unwanted attention to yourself. It is known as a symbol of dire distress and extreme danger. On top of that it apparently pisses off a few people including veterans and has been known to cause HOA’s, cops and town councils to issue fines and other penalties.

    I hit a number of news sites almost daily and over the last seven years there have been numerous stories about people doing this. Who knows how many people are doing it but it is usually the squeaky wheel that gets the grease. I’d suggest adding a small sign explaining why the flag is upside down, maybe with a link to TBP.

  41. “Kali Yuga Durga Dharma Yadu Yudhishthira, Yona Yoni Yavana Assalayana Kamboja MLEECHAS AnatolianRg Vedic Iawanu Yavanu Mahabharata Yunan. Mussalaman LUWIAN Akka. Yudhisthira Smaug SHIVA Sarruma Saruman Tae Shub Tae Sheba Thorin Tudhaliya Sarruma.” ———– farang

    fuckmedead, my IQ just took a major hit

    My spell checker just melted down.

    “Speaking In Tongues not supported” says the Translator.

    Without exaggeration or hyperbole, that is the most bizarre, goofy, silly, fucked-up, poopie poo post ever on TBP.

  42. Thank you for a great article, but I feel compelled to disagree. I agree with your description of the situation and the problems we face, but I’m not so sure there’s a silver lining to the cloud.

    First, the upset election was just one election. Since voting seems pointless, it’s hard to feel excited about one divergence from the norm. Even if we packed the Congress with well-meaning outsiders, I imagine it wouldn’t take long to buy them, too. So I have no faith this blip on the radar means anything. I’m ready and willing to eat a healthy plate full of crow if things change, but I don’t expect to.

    Second, I’m not convinced Snowden has made much of an impact on things. He’s largely ignored and his claims don’t seem to arouse much indignation anymore. Maybe I’m totally out of touch, but I think people just accept his claims with a grain of salt or even believe we need a total surveillance state to fight “the terrorists!” who lurk among us at all times. The folks who are upset about his revelations are generally folks who were already aware their liberties were under assault, but not necessarily aware of all the details. So for them, it wasn’t a question of the offense, but rather one of the degree of the offense. Even then, I felt like I was aware of much of what he revealed. Initially, it didn’t seem like a revelation at all, but more like confirmation of what I already knew. Since then, I’ve heard much more interesting stuff, such as a hacker conference where hackers revealed the backdoors they found in major software, which Snowden’s revelations revealed were official, not programmer shortcuts.

    Third, while I’m a fan of Strauss and Howe, I’m not convinced we are going to see the cycle repeat as it has before. I’m struck by the thought we could just see the nation descend into disorder from which nothing good ever appears. If the old saw, “The bigger they are, the harder they fall,” is actually true, we are set up for a fall the likes of which no one has ever seen. One for the ages. Can that cycle be broken? According to Strauss and Howe, the Civil War diverged from the model, so I wonder if this one could be too big for the old standards to apply. Also, how does the influx of 3rd world parasitic criminal illegal aliens skew what is arguably a tradition inherited from our Anglo-European ancestors? I’m afraid they are a variable S&H did not foresee. If I remember correctly, Strauss and Howe traced this cycle to at least the War of the Roses, but did not necessarily see their cycle in other nations, so how does the flood of foreigners with no interest in assimilation or acceptance of that Anglo culture change the story?

    As a final thought, the America of the previous Turnings awys had a brighter future ahead of it. Those Americas all had more resources, more land, and more people to count on. In this day and age, America seems more depleted and withered to me. What resources do we have to exploit for, say, rebuilding after the Winter? We’ve sold off or scrapped our manufacturing, which did so much to help us win WWII. Our Iron and Oil are largely tapped out and their attendant infrastructure has withered. We dumped the traditional methods of wealth creation for debt creation and a service economy. I just don’t see a Spring possible, at least not like previous Springs. Seems to me like a drop to a low level, then a long-term or permanent bounce along that lower level; a “new normal.”

    It would be nice and reassuring to know, or at least believe, a better future is possible, but I just don’t see it. Then again, I’m a pessimistic negative-minded person, so I could be wrong. I just see a Hobbesian world lurking in the future, in which man’s life is solitary, brutish, nasty, and short.

  43. Correlation is not causation. Over 90 years ago in his epic, Socialism, Ludwig von Mises discussed causes that can be examined and possibly changed. Chalking up outcomes to a cycle takes the cause out of the realm of human action an into the realm of the metaphysical.

    1. Jahfre Fire Eater

      Ignorance is a choice. Have you read the book?

      The Fourth Turning DOES NOT predict outcomes based on cycles.

      I love when pompous know it alls dismiss something they have no clue about.

      Classic ignorant American who thinks they know what they are talking about.

  44. I’ve mentioned it here in the past, but has anyone read Guy Odom’s America’s Man on Horseback?

    This is a fascinating book that probably never got much attention in the 1990s when it was released. Odom postulated a theory that nations travel on a roughly 250+/- year timeline (he considered it roughly 10 generations) of founding, growth, outburst onto the stage, war, golden age, decadence and corruption, then collapse.

    Odom theorized a nation’s survival hinged on the most productive, most creative members of the society. These intelligent men and women were the high achievers who led the society, dreamed the great dreams, who created the great inventions, the great arts, and led the great armies. Unfortunately, these same great minds were doomed to be diminished with time as they created fewer and fewer children to replenish future generations.

    He felt the Sexual Revolution threatened the survival of the US because women who might have passed on their dominant genes to future generations were more interested in their careers, leaving fewer doers among a rising tide of average and sub-average minds. Odom believed all nations were eventually doomed to run out of steam; swamped by mediocre people and mediocre ideas. He took some pretty hard shots at our modern culture as proof of the rising tide of Stupid and our politicians for catering to it. Odom believed our nation needed to pass through a crisis and, hopefully, would be reinvigorated by crisis and reform.

    He estimated the US would be entering the last period of decay and crisis about the 2020-2030s. He believed the US would be in such a rough state, the people would be desperate for a leader, ANY leader, to save the day and would grant him unlimited power to do it, ushering in an American dictator who would promise the sun and the moon and would be in a position to go either George Washington or Julius Ceasar on us. The second part of the book was essentially a Machiavelli-style set of suggestions for this future ruler.

    He advised this future ruler to be just and merciful, but hard as steel. His first recommendation was to double the Supreme Court and double or triple the size of Congress. With 300+ million Americans, he reasoned, the Constitutional limits on Congress are silly. Also, he reasoned, the amount of infighting and politicking it would take to get all those seats filled would give the president plenty of time to get his other plans accomplished before the opposition could coalesce against him.

    He suggested, a purge of the most crooked people and families in the nation, i.e. the Rockefellers, the Kennedys, the Jon Corsines, etc. He suggested a massive war on all crime and corruption to return the rule of law. He hoped to reinvigorate America for another 250 years of strength and growth with a focus on building a real American Empire.

    Not saying I agree with all his suggestions, but they were interesting reading.

    For instance, Odom had some strong opinions on the importance of tough, strict child rearing and had a suggestion to end racism in America once and for all. He suggested taking black orphans from the worst circumstances in and schooling them at a special boarding school (think Ender’s Game) set up to teach them a rigorous Classical education in Latin, Greek, the sciences, literature, etc with a strong, hard Spartan-style martial element to it. (He’s assuming this president will rule for a long, long time)

    The graduates of this school would then go into the military as hardened, highly-educated competent officers who would form a Praetorian guard. Their excellent education and martial prowess would prove for once and for all there is nothing to limit a person’s development, regardless of race, if given good guidance and opportunities to excel. He planned the school to only educate a small number of students, maybe a few hundred, and it would close after a few years, so I guess there wouldn’t be some permanent Janissary class.

    There was much more than I can go into, so please, by all means, check it out for yourself.

  45. Admin.,

    Got late to the Fourth-Turning rant, but a very nice stew of facts to the case in point, we are screwed.


    The drain hole for peak everything and society breaking down is large, your views cerainly fit into the reset button being pushed. I never thought of reverse engineering until I read some of your thoughts on the subject. At 71 y.o. I try to keep my poor eye sight and broken hands on the road in front of me which is TBP, but I read most of your rants and find them interesting.

  46. Have faith. The federal system is top-heavy It will implode, perhaps as early as mid-2016.

    Although the implosion may be cause for celebration in the long term, getting from here to there will be no walk in the park. Consider what the transition may be from a personal viewpoint and try to take suitable measures, Staying in a metro area will not be a viable choice.

  47. Hmm…interesting Admin. I’ll go through the comment I want to post and see what might be triggering the block. Thanks for helping.

    1. T4C

      The Man with no name is using the info from your comment and the block message to adjust the filters on Cloudflare.

      1. T4C comment originally blocked by security software.


        I did a search on displaying a reversed flag last night for Virginia. Not sweet on the idea of being placed in handcuffs on July 4th. So far I don’t see any indication that that would happen. I understand you weren’t suggesting that it would happen, but yes, it “may end up drawing unwanted attention to yourself.”

        And there is a HOA where I live. I’m working out how I will handle it if a golfer breaks his nine iron over his knee if he notices the flag.

        Golfer: Your flag is upside down!!!!!

        Me: Well…..only if your standing on your feet. If you would just stand on your head it would no longer be upside down. So, Tiger Woods-wanna-be, it’s a matter of perspective. Assume the position!

        I will also have a list of reasons prepared as to why the USSA is indeed in dire distress and extreme danger. After reading that to him the golf group that were on the 5th green have by now reached the 6th green. A golfer from this group may appreciate the reversed flag. A heated discussion will ensue between the two. I will then turn away and walk into the house to prepare a nice cup of tea….smiling…..and silently declaring “Mission accomplished”.

        I AM going to hang the flag in reverse. My father would have approved of the use of ‘his’ flag in a “respectful” way to send a message. I’m going to hang it from 0600 – 2000 on July 4th. I’m going observe the reactions of the golfers (if any), and will engage in intelligent debate in an “OM” manner. I am preparing for “battle”.

  48. You can put a flag condom on your dick, or wipe your ass with flag toilet paper. (These products exist.)

    But, fly a flag upside down, and one risks trouble??

    United States of Fuckin BizarroLand

    1. You know what’s worse than hanging the American flag upside down?

      Seeing a black lady with an ass the size of Nebraska jammed into a pair of American Flag spandex pants. She was walking in front of me when I was going outside for lunch today. I thought I was going to see the stars bursting in air, they were straining so hard to keep that cellulite confined.

      Now that should be against the law.

  49. TUMBLEWEED~~ditto, agree with most of what you wrote. I am now 63, a widow alone preparing for the coming societal/economic/moral collapse of America. The wait, I have been preparing ten or more years in varying capacities and degrees, is a slow form of death of its own. Over the past five years I have read/heard a very few others say the same. Truth is, though probably 2-10% of Americans are/have somewhat prepared, my gut absolutely knows no one is fully prepared mentally, socially, physically to meet what this way comes. I do know from knowledge-based observation we are NOW beyond the threshold of entering that long-awaited abyss~~soon America/the world will swim in its terror; most, almost all will drown as few grasp the depth of destruction “they, the powers behind it all” have planned for us as they claim the earth and its resources for themselves and the chosen few. Our only hope is family, those of like mind who understand the hour we’re in, and looking to God. God be with us.

  50. I’m new to the concept of 4th Turning – so working backwards from the American Revolution, 80 years prior to that, app 1700, what was the cataclysmic event? or in 1620? 1540 I can see though

  51. Did-I-Anus,

    Ugh… your post is so loaded with saccharine, I puked and got diabetes at the same time…

    “It’s okay me bashing rural hill folk… I grew up in the South and lived in Kentucky, so I’m allowed! I love those hard-working people, even though I’m more than willing to trashtalk and belittle them for some cheap laughs.”

    Meh… Difference between you and me is that I don’t claim to love anyone I trash-talk when I get called on it… Didn’t say your little story wasn’t true or inaccurate – you just did and then pretended that’s what I think. I don’t care if it’s true or not. You used it for cheap laughs and then spent 5 paragraphs trying to justify it. I would have just said “Yeah? So?”…

    “People are very easy to take offense, probably a sign of the times”

    Nope. It’s just me. I can be an arrogant, cranky, opinionated, foul-mouthed, swaggering racist asshole… and I claim it. Words of Power do not work on me. I don’t try to pretend I’m anything but what I am.

    As far as the coal industry, fucking Obongo is doing his level best to destroy it. It started back during the Clintoon Admin. They started leveraging coal plants under some obscure rule that says if the plant makes one improvement in one place, then they have to make improvements to everything in the plant. Makes improvements impossible and cost prohibitive. Like back end add-ons for emissions. Put one on and you have to upgrade the entire coal plant. They’re actually buying coal from Wyoming and having it shipped across the country by the trainload because it’s lower in sulpher than the anthracite coal coming out of Pikeville… it’s actually cheaper to buy from Wyoming and have it shipped than to put an add-on for emissions…

    The latest ruse is the EPA bitching about mercury. Each metric ton of coal has some mercury in it – an amount about the size of a sugar cube. It’s just trace amounts. But the EPA hath decreed that Thou Shalt Control Emissions To Our Standards, then beats the power plants over the head with that stupid improvement rule when they try to control the mercury. (Oddly, the same elemental mercury in those faggoty corkscrew lightbulbs they’re forcing us to use – that are actually less efficient than the old incandescent bulbs – they’re okay with the same mercury in billions of those stupid corkscrew lightbulbs… that’s okay. But the same mercury in coal is somehow “bad”…. hypocritical self righteous nazi fucktards).

    From what I know, Kentucky gets 90% of it’s power from coal. That golf-playing chimp in long pants sitting in the White House promised to destroy the coal industry. And he’s doing it. We’ve probably lost 5,000 jobs in the coal industry alone (and all the downrange blowback that goes with it… all the peripheral industries supported by the coal industry are suffering as well), several coal mines have been shuttered and I’ve seen my power bill go up because of the coal burning power plants being taken offline. The owners throw the older power stations under the bus – too expensive to retrofit – in an effort to placate the EPA enforcers, hoping they will leave the Cadillac stations alone. But it’s also cost prohibitive to build new stations, so there are no stations being built to replace the ones tossed under the bus…

    And all this in combination with an effort by Obongo to get as many folks in Appalachia to go on the dole as possible. First, kill coal and take away their means to support themselves. Then dangle a nice tasty carrot in front of them – welfare – so they become members of the Free Shit Army…

    I got a special brand of hate for the evil fucks doing this…

  52. mr quinn, i have a different take on your insightful article. i believe there is one country who will prosper from coming turmoil, assuming WWIII is not in the cards. putin is in the cat bird seat, the pipe explosion just today only plays into the chess masters hands. we are taking about a country that is solvent, energy rich, gold rich, educated and a devoted populace and most importantly patient. the west is in a huge hurry to self impale itself on its own arrogance. the russians will enjoy the the next calipahate self destruct., china is doomed as well, since they are in need of petro. the ruble will be king, the tuetonic race will bow to the slavs, with pleasure. western europe will welcome the return of their cultures. the jews will fend for themselves, good luck. the socialist states of north america will become colonies for their resources and very cheap labor as we devolve to third world status. all debts are paid, this is the consequence of greed on a scale that is truly beyond our ability to grasp. russia is the only country that has a prayer of escaping what is coming down the pike.

  53. “After nearly 6 years of blocking the normal development of systemic transition, a blocking caused by a flood of dollars leading to a renewed artificial global addiction to the US dollar, history is now taking its course. It isn’t as if during these six years nothing has happened.

    On the one hand, the US has failed to relaunch its economy and the actual situation for Americans has only got worse, and on the other, the emerging nations have used – and contributed to creating – this ‘pause’ to prepare themselves for the ultimate and inevitably painful stages of completing the crisis which we are now approaching.

    The Ukrainian crisis and the characteristic aggression against the legitimate interests of one of the major players in the emerging multipolar world, Russia, as well as the US’ attempted annexation of Europe, have blown the whistle for the end of the game. The whole world has thus realized that the US was on its last legs, henceforth dangerous and that it had become urgent to move on.”

    GEAB N°86: The Major Global Geopolitical Reconfiguration

  54. Displaying the flag upside down is not illegal. I only recall one story of a guy getting arrested but it was on a different charge.

    I’ve been thinking about doing it myself but I’d want to put up a double sided sign explaining why so the sheep have a clue. I’d bet that the majority have no idea what it means to fly a flag upside down.

    I figure I’d end up with broken windows or eggs splattered on everything. I used to work on a golf course and a great many of the golfers were assholes so I’m all for messing up their game. I look forward to hearing their reaction, if any.

  55. Hi Billy,

    One final thought:

    I can be an arrogant, cranky, opinionated, foul-mouthed, swaggering racist asshole


    Loving people (pick your groups or everyone),

    Those two views do not seem mutually exclusive to me!

  56. Diddley..

    My opinion of most “people” is that they are low-IQ useless eaters and mouth-breathers… people suck. They walk around like zombies, perpetually plugged into their iCrap and as long as “da Game” is on, the booze flows and they can get laid, they don’t give a shit… try to take away their freedoms and they’ll crab a little bit, but so long as it’s “the other guy”, they don’t care.

    I have little use for the vast bulk of humanity.

  57. DJ/billy – I gave both positions thumbs up! I admire DJ for his ability to see good in folks. That said, Billy more reflects my view of the world.

    DJ sees what humans can be. Billy sees them as they generally are.

  58. I just hope the author is right about all of this. The one thing not mentioned, however, is the physical evisceration (or some equivalent) of every one in high positions of authority, especially the “elites.” That is the main thing I would like to see. My only other wish would be that the previous generation who seems to have escaped justice also suffer mightily for their stupidity and selfishness.

  59. Llpoh.

    Thing is old buddy, I think DJ believes mankind is generally good with evil tendencies. I believe that mankind is generally evil with good tendencies. Plus, they suffer from normalcy bias. Bad shit won’t happen to me because bad shit has never happened to me… thus, when the 4th Turning gets here and the other shoe drops, the chances of a massive population adjustment will approach 1.

  60. V’S UPDATE AT 8:25 AM MOUNTAIN– The largest NatGas Pipeline in Europe which supplies Germany, France, Italy, Austria, Chek Republic and Hungary just exploded. This explosion was done by US assets fomenting war.
    I just got off the phone with my City Of London(COL) Sources. As I was speaking to him this morning the largest NatGas Pipeline in Europe which supplies Germany, France, Italy, Austria, Chek Republic and Hungary just exploded. This explosion was done by US assets fomenting war.

    As reported on my site and in prior interviews C.O.L is expecting a Russian response within the middle of July which the outcome will be takeover of Ukraine, the end of NATO, and the defeat on the global stage of the United States.

    This also ties in to what My sources, Agent W’s sources and Steve’s sources have been saying. The market set to blow, see the bond troubles in Japan and now bond exit controls that are being implemented by the FED.

    We are nearing the end.

    “V”The Guerrilla Economist

  61. Billy/LLpoh,

    Thanks for the comments.

    Not sure I know what to believe anymore except that evil is currently ascendent and gaining strength. The current 4th turning or whatever you want to call it will probably decide the outcome of this trend for a long time to come. Definitely agree that evil and good potential is in everyone and none of us are perfect. I try to be optimistic yet realistic (and I know those can be incompatible views). Heck, my wife thinks I can be cynical and, well, I sure can be.

    I reckon (now that is a “southern” word to use IMHO, it is also used like that A LOT in New Zealand)
    I am a realist that tries to look on the bright side but also believes, as Reagan once said, “Trust but verify”.

    Agree Billy full on (a New Zealand phrasing) about the normalcy bias. Drives me up the wall, not just with my step daughter and her family but my own parents as well, bless their hearts (as my Dad’s Mom used to say). Hmm it is really my mom… so wanting to live in peace and hold onto to what she has she won’t do anything to prepare for the probable coming events. She is 75 and in good health so a good chance she will be here to see it. They live in central Florida, not the best place when the SHTF but probably not the worst.


    Didius – whose namesake sold his soul for the top job in Rome and found out the true price afterwards. I wonder how many of the current politicians understand the true price once they have been compromised?

    PS – You should here Kiwis trying to figure out where I am from. 90% do determine the states but I guess because of my travels they can not pinpoint the region. I have had enough that it makes me wonder say they think I am Irish!

  62. So true and so sad:

    “They walk around like zombies, perpetually plugged into their iCrap and as long as “da Game” is on, the booze flows and they can get laid, they don’t give a shit… try to take away their freedoms and they’ll crab a little bit, but so long as it’s “the other guy”, they don’t care.”

    The conditioning that got “most people” that way in the U.S. has been a long time in the making. Happening in NZ too. Depending on what you are looking at, NZ seems to be between 10 and 40 years behind the U.S. trends (that is good) but the divergence is narrowing and only because NZ is “catching up” to the U.S. There is still a much more self reliant, tolerant (as in libertarian tolerance) and anti-freeloader sentiments over here but things like the internet and all the i-devices are rapidly closing the gap, especially among young people. That said, your people are, for the most part, refreshing over here (more civilized as my wife would say) – polite, get along well with each other and their elders, MUCH more outdoors oriented, lots of girls riding skateboards and motorcycles, well adjusted, walk/ride their bike to school by themselves even as young as year 2 or 3 (1st or 2nd grade), etc. All of that is in a relative sense of course. Will be interesting to see how NZ populations reacts when the SHTF.

  63. I’ve never commented on your website before, but I just have to tell you what a great article this is. When you put it all together like this, I’m surprised we’re still standing. I just want to say also how much I love your website. I have read everything in the Fourth Turning library and all of it has been so educational and I have a deeper understanding of how the world really works. Thank you so much for all of this excellent content that you put out there. Sincerely, Carla Angelo

  64. You speak of “the fury of the masses” and suggest that this fury will be turned against the invisible elite that Bernays describes.

    I’m not so sure. People need scapegoats and simple explanations for their troubles. Nor are “the masses” inclined to challenge those who wield power. More likely, we’ll turn on one another by race, gender, sexual orientation, region of the country and other easily identifiable criteria. My own Baby Boomer generation, the last of the middle class, has preferred to be divided and ruled by these distinctions rather than to cooperate for our mutual benefit.

    I regard 911 as the event that initiated the Fourth Turning which takes roughly a generation to complete, meaning a new cycle will begin around 2025. Though the personnel that comprises the ruling elite may change, I doubt the so-called 1%, whoever they may be, will be any the less influential. Le plus ça change, le plus en meme.

  65. Ah Jim, another brilliant post outlining the continuing collapse.

    Meanwhile, a large (and seemingly, shockingly, growing) segment of the teetering middle decides now is the time to double down.

    All of a sudden I am being forced to listen to Network Nightly News(like). Hours of commentary, fair and balanced of course, cause he flips between CNN, MsNBC and Fox.

    My three brothers are taking on more debt, deciding to drive kids to schools 2 hours away (as gas here tops $4 a gallon), taking fabulous Disney vacations on plastic.

    Other friends are buying new homes, dropping $50k into remodels, having plastic surgery.

    The vast majority do not want to entertain that tomorrow could possibly be worse than today. Meanwhile, murder/suicides seem to be increasing at a pace I’ve never known.

    In short, all is well for the vast majority, even as they struggle and go under.

    This time the blowback is going to be spectacular.

    Thanks again for doing what you can to stop it. Your words are sheer poetry of doom.

  66. These types of articles always deeply affect me for several days. They make me somber, and quiet. Frequently the people at work think I’m suffering from depression, or that things are wrong at home.

    Au contraire my friends, I love my wife, our lives are going well. By every standard measure we are a success and are living The American Dream.

    But we both play the long game. We both see whats coming. And its downright fucking terrifying from the viewpoint of someone planning on starting a family right as all this shit is slated to hit the fan.

  67. >>”made the world go round until 2008.”<<

    What makes you think it stopped in 2008? In 2008 and AGAIN in 2012, the American dopes elected the most radical, socialist president ever.; and even many of the Tea Party elected candidates, like Rand Paul and Scott Brown are not genuine; and I see more young people today espousing socialism than I ever have before. The collapse of this system will not be because people suddenly started desiring freedom, and consciously dismantled it; rather, it will be a slow descent, brought about by fragmentation; hostility; and it's own unsustainability.

  68. “The danger is that as dysfunction increases and the people subject to that dysfunction are a very, very large proportion of the population, you start to either experience social disruption or you experience what you might call authoritarian crackdown on that social disruption.

    And at one level or another, it would be nice to see a political reform, what you might call a civilized tacking in a new direction, rather than a physical confrontation. But sometimes you have to have a crisis to make change. And it’s not clear that the elite stewardship, whether it be corporate or individual, is sufficiently constructive right now and able to bring this, how would I say, onto a new, more healthy path without some crisis as a precipitating factor. It might be environmental, it might be social.

    Often, as Bismarck used to say, when you can’t solve your own problems, you go to war. I wouldn’t rule that out, given the strength and the vitality of the military-industrial complex in this country. But the last two or three wars we’ve been involved in haven’t really shown the American people much that they, how would you say, took solace from. I think warfare’s changed quite a lot.

    And we’re at a juncture now where I think what we really need is a healthy revitalization of politics, first and foremost getting money out of politics.”

    Robert Johnson

  69. War, huh, yeah
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    War, huh, yeah
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    Say it again, y’all

    War, huh, good God
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    Listen to me

    Ohhh, war, I despise
    Because it means destruction
    Of innocent lives

    War means tears
    To thousands of mothers eyes
    When their sons go to fight
    And lose their lives

    I said, war, huh
    Good God, y’all
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    Say it again

    War, whoa, Lord
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    Listen to me

    War, it ain’t nothing
    But a heartbreaker
    War, friend only to the undertaker
    Ooooh, war
    It’s an enemy to all mankind
    The point of war blows my mind
    War has caused unrest
    Within the younger generation
    Induction then destruction
    Who wants to die
    Aaaaah, war-huh
    Good God y’all
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    Say it, say it, say it
    War, huh
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    Listen to me

    War, huh, yeah
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    War, huh, yeah
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    Say it again y’all
    War, huh, good God
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    Listen to me

    War, it ain’t nothing but a heartbreaker
    War, it’s got one friend
    That’s the undertaker
    Ooooh, war, has shattered
    Many a young mans dreams
    Made him disabled, bitter and mean
    Life is much to short and precious
    To spend fighting wars these days
    War can’t give life
    It can only take it away

    Ooooh, war, huh
    Good God y’all
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    Say it again

    War, whoa, Lord
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    Listen to me

    War, it ain’t nothing but a heartbreaker
    War, friend only to the undertaker
    Peace, love and understanding
    Tell me, is there no place for them today
    They say we must fight to keep our freedom
    But Lord knows there’s got to be a better way

    Ooooooh, war, huh
    Good God y’all
    What is it good for
    You tell me
    Say it, say it, say it, say it

    War, huh
    Good God y’all
    What is it good for
    Stand up and shout it

  70. Anyone read that new york times article on how the economy is weak due to a lack of MAJOR wars?

    Watch the MSM close… they will be sending out signals.

  71. Anybody else notice that the articles basis was built upon the non factual statement that human beings have always lived 80 years. Really? Other than that, I did enjoy the reflections of chronological debacles of our failing establishment. Also, I think the article would have held more weight, (and my attention) if the adjitive per word count ratio in a single sentence was a bit more in line with conversational English.

  72. Great stuff as always.

    Is it possible to link your headlines to the material your source?

    52 million abandoned homes.

    Where did you get this?

    1. mikef

      Almost all of those headlines were directly from Zero Hedge. If you goggle the title you’ll get to the actual story in seconds.

  73. Jnaiser60

    Here’s some conversational English for ya.

    Blow me.

    S&H reference a long human life, not an average human life. There have ALWAYS been plenty of human beings in the developed world living to 80 and beyond.

    The life expectancy of the average American is 79 today.

  74. I just went with out food for 32 hours. I didn’t like the feeling much. I had a hard time focusing on my tasks. I can understand how society, without food, will crumble and fall into the abyss of rampant inhumanity. Fiat money is the harbinger of War, societal breakdown, and other great evils.

    Those who advocate fiat money know fully well the evil it brings, but see for themselves a benefit and so willingly engage in it. It is Americanus Boobus that is the victim and ignorant of it’s nature and of it’s ultimate outcome. Learn your history, or repeat it.

    I would like to see what a chart of the Fourth Turnings juxtaposition with the culmination of fiat money looks like.

    One is left wondering whether there is hope for mankind.

  75. Didius Julianus—says no one is perfect. Au Contraire! As I am constantly reminded. My wife’s first husband was perfect.

  76. Administrator
    So what your saying is: Your article is based on this: “It has a seasonal nature geared to the 80 year life cycle of human beings.”

    1. Something S&H never said.
    2. Something that isn’t true even today, although human beings are living longer than they ever have.
    3. Your response is “Blow Me”

    Wow…. Aren’t you intellectual…..

    1. jnaiser60

      You appear to have a comprehension problem. I guess I should require an IQ test before allowing the dimwitted to make comments.

  77. I love when assholes drop onto the site for the first time and make snarky comments and then are surprised when I kick them in the balls. They then act like whiny bitches. If you want intellectual, go read Krugman’s NYT Op ed. If you want to learn something, read TBP.

  78. Your tripping on your own two feet, while trying to kick me in the balls. I simply quoted back what you said. You resorted to name calling as a defense.

    I do believe its a reasonable question.

    I will ask it again in a more direct way:
    If life expectancy has never been 80 years, and in 1900, it was only 47 years, 1920 it was 54, and in 1950 it was 67; How could any reasonable person factor 80 years old as the number to draw any logical conclusion from, about anything? I do understand that you Are not a representative of S&H, but you did quote them as the primary source to draw conclusions as the basis of your opinion piece. I’m just questioning why you would do that, when theres such a large “turd in the toilet” that would keep most people from drinking the water you are serving up?

    Heres a link to help you understand what most people already know:

    1. Looks like I’ve gotten under the thin skin of a liberal greenie. Ignorance is a choice. And you’ve made it.

      You’re another example of someone with a little knowledge jumping to conclusions and misinterpreting a book you haven’t even read. You clearly are clueless regarding the entire generational theory. I love when idiots who haven’t read the book attempt to discredit it. It never gets old.

      Do some homework and learn something.

  79. Let me say it a little simpler for the simple.

    As you go back in time, the manmade crises were further apart, probebly because populations were fewer. As you move forward in time, major manmade crisis become more frequent because the populations are greater, and therefore you have a higher percentage of antagonist in any given area, as a percentage of the total population. This is my quick opinion, not quoted or read from anywhere. It just seems logical.

    Eighty years doesn’t represent an average age or even a likely obtainable age in the year 1781 which is where the mathematical foundation of this supposed 80 year cycle started.

    I quote from you: “History does not proceed in a straight line of forward advancement. It has a seasonal nature geared to the 80 year life cycle of human beings. ”

    Saeculum (climax year) Crisis (Full Era) Time from one Crisis climax to next Crisis climax
    Revolutionary (1781) American Revolution(1773–1794)
    Civil War (1863) Civil War(1860–1865) 82 years
    Great Power (1944) Great Depressionand World War II(1929-1946) 81 years
    Millennial (2025?) Global Financial Crisis(2008–2029?) 81 years?

  80. Administrator
    Once again, you make the wrong assumption and furthermore quoted a website that does not support your 60+20 =80 year cycle.

    You really don’t have to get all aggressive here. If you ment to say it follows generational years and a percentage thereof, just do that… It’s really not so hard.

    Personally I don’t believe in the liberal/concervitive or democrat/republican pigeon hole system. I think it’s outdated and useful only to control the weaker, who still fall prey to the tribal way of protectionism. You know those people… The ones who can’t form there own thoughts and resort to quoting ( and misquoting) others. The followers in our society….

  81. If your a believer in the two party system, then more power to you. Personally I think that small minds following and complying with this is our biggest problem. I thought by your original words we were of like mind. But for some reason drew your wrath. Which pissed you off?

    That I pointed out that the whole cycle thing doesn’t work, because it’s based on wrong assumptions of the human life span as well as world events chosen to match said cycle; or was it my comment of the over use of adjatives making it a harder than necessary read?

    1. I’m bored trying to learn a slow witted real greenie about a theory that is too complicated for him to understand. Did I use too many adjectives?

  82. Jnaiser60,

    The point is not that approximately 80 years represented the average life sapn and thus 4th turning cycle (although that is close enough) but that it represents (IMHO) living memory. Most events older than approximately 80 years are in the living memory of so few as to be irrelevant. An average life span of 30 or 40 over 100 years ago only means that,because of the high infant and childhood mortality, the average age was pulled way down. Once you survived to young adult hood, you were way more likely to live a long time. While there were proportionately fewer 85-90 year olds around 200 years ago (who would have arguably a decent living memory of about 80 years prior), there were still a decent amount in absolute numbers. Back when age was more respected, their voices carried weight enough to offset their relatively fewer numbers.

  83. When accountants try on the hat of naturalists, you get this kind of thinking.

    An average lifespan that factors in every living body from birth onward and takes into account every form of mortality does not give you the expected lifespan of the human species. That’s actuarial data.

    Human beings that survive birthing complications, infant mortality, childhood diseases, adolescent risk taking behaviors, young adult violence, mid life lifestyle illnesses, and live until their organs begin to fail from use average somewhere around 80 years. If you want to suggest that humanity has fundamentally altered as a species during the past 200 years rather than advances in medicine mitigating otherwise fatal circumstances during a lifespan, you’re going to have a difficult time with that.

    The 4th turning premise is pretty interesting stuff and seems- at least to me at first glance- to have more to do with the human tendency to “forget” mistakes on a societal level (because of the death of those who remember what led to the last collapse), leading to the collapse of that collective life-form.

    In Nature trees have a lifespan, but so do forests. The two are not the same. Conditions that lead to the death of a tree are not the same as the conditions that lead to the failure of the forest, but are pre-conditions for the latter. Same thing with reefs, etc.

    The biggest problem with people is in my estimation the belief that they are somehow exempt from the laws of Nature simply because we can think our way around problems. What we cannot do is escape our true nature.

    I thought the quote concerning the “tea party” was quite odd considering the date given to the introductory piece. How did these guys pull that out of the hat in the 1990’s?

  84. Another masterpiece HSF. That is just about the way I think about the 4T myself.

    It’s too bad that most people don’t think beyond their own lifetimes. It dooms us to repeated failure. The thing I’ve noticed is that our owners think and plan on much longer time scales. They think in terms of centuries and continually come out on top. Coincidence? I think not!

  85. I would think that this forum is to express new ideas and present a new ways of thinking and NOT be subjected to a hissy fit.

    Let’s keep the new thoughts rollin’. Remember–the consensus of many is much more reliable than the thoughts of a few central planners.

  86. Billy–A lot of things attributed to evil is nothing more than stupid people acting ignorantly. Evil is specific intent. You know that you are doing wrong and choose to do it anyway. Mal-intent.

  87. In addition to “The Fourth Turning,” read “The Great Reckoning,” which was published many years ago. Same thing, but a greater emphasis on prepping. I hope we don’t have to wait until 2029 for things to fall apart. Another 15 years of religious nuts, cruelty, lack of compassion, and the theft of the country’s wealth, and we’ll all be Mad Max.

  88. I’m surprised that there is so little discussion of the dog that did not bark, as in the ‘hound of the baskervilles’. This would be the huge private ownership of guns in the USA, and the apparent disinterest in them by the authorities. This tells me that the authorities are not barking because the issue is already covered, as far as they are concerned. Otherwise, wouldn’t they be pushing gun control, rather than tacitly (at least) supporting 2nd amendment rights?

  89. “Jason Emery says:

    I’m surprised that there is so little discussion of the dog that did not bark, as in the ‘hound of the baskervilles’. This would be the huge private ownership of guns in the USA, and the apparent disinterest in them by the authorities. This tells me that the authorities are not barking because the issue is already covered, as far as they are concerned. Otherwise, wouldn’t they be pushing gun control, rather than tacitly (at least) supporting 2nd amendment rights?”

    Are you fucking kidding me, Jason?! Disinterest by the authorities of gun ownership in the USA???
    Not pushing gun control???

    Did you just wake up from a Rumplestiltskin sleep?

  90. @Robot, that is a GREAT video! All the right images that show today’s situation of decay, oppression, and guv evil.

    It’s too bad more of today’s music can’t relay the message to the youth like this. Remember Crosby, Stills, Nash, and Young’s “Four Dead in Ohio”?

  91. “Are you fucking kidding me, Jason?! Disinterest by the authorities of gun ownership in the USA???”

    Not kidding at all. We are getting very close to the end game, and the number of guns in private hands is increasing, not decreasing. So, obviously, the authorities have this covered. The question is how.

    My guess is that they will use their well researched chemtrails technology for many things, but not climate control, as many believe. The possibilities are almost endless. They could spray a biological agent. Come in and get a vaccine, and bring your guns, lol.

  92. “Steve Forbes Warns Of Economic “Catastrophe” Due To Fed’s Dollar Debasement”

    Steve Forbes?? Really? The fact that a talentless scion of a billionaire is issuing this “warning” should make you pause.


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