I thought all those Obama jobs, the millions of Obamacare enrollees getting “free” health insurance, and the plunge in gas prices would lead to billions of excess disposable income being spent on stuff. Considering consumer spending accounts for 68% of GDP, this juggernaut of jobs would propel the US economy to new heights. Keynesianism at its finest. But something went awry on the road to prosperity. The American people have stopped spending money they don’t have on shit they don’t need. The blathering boobs on the tube will use the tried and true weather excuse, except last winter was the winter of the polar vortex. The very same morons who reported that this past winter was the 15th warmest in recorded history, will use cold and snow during winter time as the reason the American sheeple didn’t shop. How could they possibly get to the mall in their leased four wheel drive SUVs, pickups, and minivans?
Retail sales have fallen three months in a row. The last time this happened was at the beginning of the 2008 financial collapse. Do retail sales fall three months in a row when the economy is booming, or does it do that when we are in a recession? And these haven’t been miniscule drops: December -0.9%, January -0.8%, February -0.6%. If we dig into the numbers we can assess the truth of our current situation:
- Retail sales have only grown by 1.7% versus last year. This is far lower than the real level of inflation.
- If you back out the subprime loan juiced auto sales, retail sales have grown by a pathetic 0.8% in the last year.
- The rapidly rising level of auto loan defaults and repossessions is leading to a decline in auto sales, as they fell 2.6% in February versus January.
- All the discretionary retailers – furniture, electronics, building materials – have seen sales fall over the last three months. How could this happen if we are having that strong housing recovery I’ve read about?
- In a positive development, the gas price plunge reversed, and you spent $500 million more for gas in February.
- Department store sales fell again and were $350 million lower than last year. The JC Penney, Sears death march slogs on.
- Things have gotten so bad, people are even drinking and eating out less. Makes you wonder how we can keep adding those Obama jobs – waitresses, bartenders, fry cooks.
- On-line retailing, which used to grow at 10% to 20% rates, has grown by 3.9% YTD. Maybe Amazon isn’t really worth $370 per share. It couldn’t happen to have anything to do with the government sucking the life out of the business by implementing sales taxes.
If you want to know the real reason average Americans aren’t spending, it’s because they don’t have anything left to spend after their pitiful wages increases, skyrocketing health insurance premiums, food bills, higher taxes, fees and tolls, and Yellen created inflation.
But don’t you worry. The people that really matter, Wall Street bankers, are doing fabulously well. Despite lower fraudulently achieved profits in 2014 than 2013, they have decided to increase their bonuses for a job well done. They are paying themselves $28.5 billion in bonuses for taking free money from their puppets at the Fed and then using it in markets they have rigged to make obscene phantom profits. Please note the slope of their bonus chart versus the slope of the average worker’s salary.
The American Dream achieved by the .1%.
It’s the snow damn it !!!!!!!!!!! In the summer it’ll be the heat .
Look a the bright side when the lights go out this summer and all of the shops get looted…they’ll order more stuff…helping the economy…if they still have a store to supply !
Keep in mind those retail sales also include the free (government paid) pharmaceuticals and food stamps, which, shockingly, I know, continue to increase in need and amount. Pharms are the one “bright” spot of most reporting I’ve heard/seen. We are – literally – cannibalizing ourselves and haven’t noticed most of the legs are already gone. Reality is going to be one painful bitch.
While every freaking corporate shill/pundit/ salesman/executive parades across CNBC and Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, predicting sunshine and unicorns and roses.
Don’t they know that shelters across the country are reporting increases in homeless, some as much as 30%?
Oh that’s right, their wives are too busy working to force churches to install million dollar dormitories before being “allowed” to bring the destitute out of the cold, or feed them.
Laws to not feed or shelter humans, laws to not grow food nor distribute it to others, laws to not keep seeds, use random plants, the lists of ways we are to be kept from sustenance is astounding.
And not to be acknowledged. Why work to change a law that currently isn’t being overtly enforced, or reported on by the MSM? Which is the insidiousness, and inevitability.
We are toast, and it is getting harder, and harder, for the PTB to cover it up. Which is when those overlooked and ignored, recently enacted, laws, go into full force and effect.
Ponzi on, folks, Ponzi on. The future’s so bright, I gotta wear shades.
Just a thought . When the hell are we going to start hearing about Obamma Care Fines. This thing is going on 2 years now. Where are the fines?
Or, as with most people, we can blame just 1 group for everything!
It’s all the blacks fault! They got themselves 1 in office, now all hell done broke loose! heehaw!
It’s all them Jews fault cause they got big noses & control the $!
It’s all dem white peoples fault cause they run the US government!
It’s all them yellow Asians fault cause they steal the plans then make all the products!
Or, U can be like Roscoe P. Coltrane or Boss Hog!
It was them Dukes, them Dukes, good yoog yoog!
This article is more back-up: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/03/wholesale-trade-sales-down-inventories.html#jwD3mhz01gbIDDp3.99 I think the Train Wreck is happening.
@TE
I just ordered some of those custom white oval stickers.
The first row in a large font is Ponzi On and the second row, centered and in smaller font was Folks, Ponzi On
Perhaps driving around with that at eye level will get people thinking – I hope you don’t mind.
The beast is an equal opportunity hater. It hates ALL of our asses equally.
2015-03-12 08:40 by Karl Denninger
Retail Sales: Blows
Ok, this is just plain old-fashioned bad.
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $437.0 billion, a decrease of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but up 1.7 percent (±0.9%) above February 2014. Total sales for the December 2014 through February 2015 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The December 2014 to January 2015 percent change was unrevised from -0.8 percent (±0.3%).
Meh.
Unadjusted car sales were up, so those who claim this was weather are smoking something funny. You don’t shop for a car in bad weather, given that you have to drive said car (and be exposed to said weather!)
Everything else, pretty-much, was in the toilet. Electronics stores, building materials, food and beverage (down big; 8%!), gasoline (down slightly although fuel prices were up quite a bit in February.) Destroying (once again) the “weather” argument clothing was up.
However, sporting goods, general merchandise and internet (non-store) were down — as were food service (restaurants) and bars.
It looks like the market thinks that “bad news is good news” — it’s once again chuckle-head time if you ask me.
AS Ross Perot said, “…that big sucking sound is your jobs going overseas.” No jobs, no money, no money, Steph Shepard won’t go out with you. Thank God for the gov handouts and the ballooning federal deficits to pay for it all. How long can it last??? Hear that rushing sound that’s your life going down the toilet.
It’s just a matter of time before it all crashes. When the dollar dies?
In a real world, this data would have absolutely tanked the stock market.
It was clear the Fed and the market riggers decided this needed to be a strong up day. It was immediately elevated by 185 points and has stayed there all day. Just like the BOJ, the Fed is buying stocks through derivative manipulation.
There is no logic or fairness in the markets. It’s a rigged casino.
I am keeping an eye on the shenanigans of the careless few.
This ‘strong dollar is good’ meme will serve the financiers, but it will put a spike into the heart of The Recovery™, and probably the dollar as the world’s reserve currency by causing turmoil in the emerging markets. Think 1997 and the failures that helped start the movement to displace King Dollar as the reserve currency.
How can anyone forecast inflation or deflation when so much of it is up to a discretionary decision by the Fed and their moneyed interests? This is why I forecast stagflation, which in itself is the result of an economic shock or a willful policy error?
It is in this case the result of massive monetary stimulus, that has been misdirected to an unreformed top down approach that has left aggregate demand wanting. It flows to the Banks and the corporations, who skim it before it can reach the people. It is like sending aid to a beleaguered nation, straight into the hands of robber barons and despots who take the best and the most for themselves.
Any overseas firms that take their debt in dollars are going to suffer mightily from this hubris.
The financiers can skim profits in this short squeeze, and use the king dollar to acquire more assets on the cheap overseas.
We have the best and most skillful liars in the world. And they are on parade.
Winning….
Keep your lamps trimmed and burning.
Jesse
I was listening to something the other day where they were comparing Ross Perot with Karl Marx.
Both said – and I am paraphrasing – that when Labor gets commoditized, Capitalism is done.
Interesting that both understood that labor has a place and a purpose within a society – too bad the globalists have no sense of allegiance to their country of origin and governments have no love for their people.
Inflation is down too! That’s why the McDonald’s 2 fillet-o-fish used to be 2 for $3.33, then last year it was 2 for $3.50 and now this year it’s 2 for $4. Isn’t that great! There’s no inflation folks. It’s all your imagination…..go back to sleep now and remember to keep trusting your government.
@Olga, no way do I mind.
See, there is nothing new under the sun and most “protections” from copyrights have been skewed with all benefits going to him with the largest legal defense fund.
Besides, I’m sure that Ponzi On, was borrowed from somewhere, we all read and see things that come bubbling forth in our speech and writing, sometimes years later.
It’s not like I toiled for decades and poured millions into development, have at it…lol
Everything is fine…….Until it’s not
China’s economy is tanking. The US, Japan and the EU are falling apart, but there’s nothing to worry about. A good war will fix everything.
@Admin, another day of lemmings “winning”…
honest to god I fear the days it is obviously not “coming back” and we need a large amount of cash to keep our building – has happened before and surely will happen again.
I fear my hub will go all murder/suicide so that “I don’t have to live his failure” or some such nonsense.
Which is why I have my fingers crossed for a couple more months, I believe the world will go to hell in late summer/early fall, I hope to hell I have that long.
yahsure—The trouble with backing the dollar with confidence is that confidence is an emotional thing.
Feelings change at the drop of a hat. It is like murmurations, darting and fleeting. The work necessary to maintain that confidence becomes increasingly greater and more ‘Alice in Wonderlandish’. All to no avail, as history has shown.
TE, this post has me seriously worried for your physical safety. I am NOT joking. You have dropped to many hints in posts on this thread that your domestic situation is a little…. scary, too many to ignore, and this one does it.
Murder/suicide? Are you serious? Is your husband becoming irrational and physically violent?
If you feel that you are in serious danger of becoming a victim of a murder/suicide, GET THE FUCK OUT NOW.
Just do it. Never mind your business, never mind your house. Only you and your kids count. If you think your business is going down the tubes anyway. Pack up the minimal stuff you need, grab the kids from school, scrape the available cash from your bank accounts, and bolt.
Do it today.
I did my job, I bought an electric chipper to chip off the ice damns, a snow rake and a bunch of cheap books for my kindle. I would have bought more but I could not get out of the driveway.
Bob.
@Chicago, no not today, for that there will be AMPLE warning.
The guys, and gals, that usually break are those that are at the lowest of low points in their lives. You see, today he is the smartest guy in the world, so all is well and there is no violence, or even true arguing, in our home. We literally don’t fight. You have to give a shit to fight, and I don’t. And he is so scared he will say something that will finally send me over the edge, he won’t say it. Our married lives revolve around bullshit and our daughter. It works for today.
Our financial future, well his, I long ago accepted that all I’ve worked for will never be for my use, both home and business live on a razor thin edge of local bureaucrats, the IRS, EPA, OSHA, or other, the manufacturing industry – which in no way has “come back” – and the stock markets/banksters whims. So many shoes, so little time.
If the market goes to hell, he goes from being the smartest guy in the room, to hating the hell outta me for “causing” it. I’ve seen this behavior before. And that is what I meant, I was just venting, sorry to worry you.
Once the absolute bottom, with no “good” (in their own deluded minds) outcomes, then I worry.
And hey, the economy is FINE! Green Shoots! Obama announced his budget reduces TRILLIONs, all is well and I’m married to the smartest and luckiest guy in the country.
All kidding aside, I know, but I also know that he will destroy both his own business/savings, and – most importantly – our daughter, if I leave before HE wants this divorce.
I’ve been actively working for five years to get him to the point where he wants me gone more than he wants me here, AND so that I can swing paying for my daughter and a roof over our heads with NO money as once things go bad, his ability to make a living will be a questionable thing, at best.
I’m reaching my very end of tolerance. At that point, or at the point of financial destruction, I’ll beat feet. Yesterday. Already planning on it. and thanks for your concern (((hugs))))
People might be willing to buy stuff if it wasn’t mostly poorly made, poorly designed, useless crap made in whatever Third World cesspit has the cheapest labor this week.
Presuming they actually had any money with which to make purchases, of course.
TE–I’m reminded of the following story. During hurricane Katrina, a man was on his roof as the waters were rising and he said to himself, “God will save me”.
A boat came along side and the pilot said, “Climb aboard”.
The man replied, “No, God will save me”.
Another boat appeared and again the man refused help.
Then a helicopter flew overhead and the pilot said. “Grab the rope”. and the man said, “No, God will save me”.
As would have it, the man drowned and as he entered heaven, he said to God, “Why didn’t you save me”?
God replied, “Well, I sent a two boats and a helicopter”.
TE, God is hope, look for the small blessings.. Fear not, give an encouraging word, an encouraging smile. Many a life has been changed by less then that.
@TE: We had a tragedy in our extended family this week; a Cousin of my Wife committed suicide and his 15 year old son found him dead. Out of the blue with no warning, other than a shitty life of broken dreams.
Don’t wait too long dear; Chicago is right…. listen to your friends.
Spring will be here soon enough. With it will come Americans sending millions upon millions for grass seed, new mowers, sod, weed killer, landscapers, shrubbery etc etc.. not that all of these things actually produce anything but it makes the morally depraved and distraction obsessed nation have nice curb appeal………
From Martin Armstrong blog. 3/12/15
by Martin Armstrong
The Swiss have now introduced the Enlightenment Intelligence Agencies Act which expands the powers of government to secretly track citizens, tap phones, and to do so even if the person is not actually charged with or suspected of a crime. One by one, every country seems to be turning to Stalinist type tactics and are obsessed with what are their citizens thinking.
Connecting the dots, what is starting to emerge is a bleak picture that those in bureaucratic government know the financial system will collapse thanks to socialism they cannot maintain. Between promises to the people and pensions that are unfunded, the day of reckoning seems to be understood quietly behind the curtain. There is just no other reason to track the movement of every car and every person storing every phone call, text message, and email. What are they so paranoid about? It is always one thing – losing power.
It appears that those deep in the bowels of government are preparing to take society as a whole into authoritarianism all the way to maintain power by force. Europe has already dismissed democratic elections. Brussels has told Greece pay up, they do not care about what the Greek people want. The same in Spain. They rigged the elections in Italy and Scotland. Everywhere we look there is something wrong and it appears they are tightening the shutters getting ready for the economic storm to hit.
What the future holds with government is becoming dark and sinister for it is all about them sustaining control. This seems to be the classic battle between government maintaining power and the people demanding freedom. This is the real battle of history. This can go either way. But it appears we will reach that crossroads all because of greed, corruption, and a financial system that nobody in their right mind would have designed.
There is ONLY one solution to the crisis on the horizon. We will look at this in detail at the Solution Conference. This will be a live stream even on the internet worldwide. We have to deal with the collapsing economy for therein lies our entire fate as a society.
TE, you make me worry even more. Think about what you just said:
“All kidding aside, I know, but I also know that he will destroy both his own business/savings, and – most importantly – our daughter, if I leave before HE wants this divorce.”
“I’ve been actively working for five years to get him to the point where he wants me gone more than he wants me here”
Think… just what would he do to affect an, uh, “uncontested” divorce, and what he would do to protect what he feels is rightly his, no matter how wrong he is to feel that way. You know the lengths some people will go to, to avoid giving their mates anything.
Be very afraid.. and very alert.
At least you have only one child to think of. You could take your daughter and bolt if you had to. Just be sure you recognize when the time has come, as I think it will. I don’t feel good about anything you’ve told us.
heres some copy right infringement for you! no wont do it , ill just say read the lyrics of blowin in the wind its not just a anti war song as some have tried to say!
A headshrink friend of mine said that the danger period often is not when the person is extremely angry or depressed, but after a period of rest and reflection and relative calmness.
At that point a feeling if inevitableness occurs – that nothing will change, ever, so why bother with the niceties – and then the bad shit happens.
TE – you are one of my favorite folks. May god speed and look after you and those you love. Be careful out there.
Yes, TE, God speed to you. You will be in our prayers.
Found 35 cents in the coin counting machine today. Reinvested towards a 12 pack.
Doing my share.
(Recall being able to buy a 6-pack of Buckhorn for 75 cents..way back when)
TE, don’t worry, after the darkness there comes a light and it gets brighter and brighter just before the end, deer.
A compassionate M/S will put a bullet in your brain while you sleep. A less considerate purveyor of death will put a bullet in the back of your head while you are enjoying your last supper. A chickenshit will off you but not himself. He may wrap you in a mattress where you will sleep in peace forever. Or take you on a surprise fishing trip where you go for a dip and float ashore a few weeks later.
As it usually turns out, there were signs and threats and still, the victim brushed them aside even as she assured her friends that he would kill her one day.
TE, please.
Come the fuck out of denial.
You have alluded too often to your scary domestic situation, and I take the hints you drop as cries for help.
GET OUT NOW. TAKE YOUR DAUGHTER AND BOLT. NOW.
Admin, you have my permission to supply TE with my email address.
Mark says:
“Just a thought . When the hell are we going to start hearing about Obamma Care Fines. This thing is going on 2 years now. Where are the fines?”
Mark, the fines are in play now. Here are the penalties:
2014: 1% of taxable income or $95/individual or max $285/family (whichever is greater)
2015: 2% of taxable income or $395/individual or max $975/family (whichever is greater)
2016: 2.5% of taxable income or $695/individual or max $2,085/family (whichever is greater)
There are exemptions…one of them is if you are a Native American.
For TE and Olga…
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(was trying to capture a “Keep Calm and Ponzi On” do-it-yourself shirt from here:
http://www.zazzle.com/keep_calm_and_carry_on_create_your_own_pink_tshirt-235190480365072519
I do KNOW that several folks here MEAN WELL with giving TE advice …. but, I feel most uncomfortable reading it ….
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Stucky, you perhaps never had a friend who had her nose shoved into her face by a spouse and came within inches of death.
I don’t give advice about anything else. But when I see someone nice in the way of direct physical harm, I do my best to pull him out.
To all, thank you, from the bottom of my heart. There is always a chance, but if truth be told, there is ALWAYS a chance for all of us. We live in a world where those you love could be chemically altered – in the name of curing their “illness” – and harm you. This happens all the time and no one acknowledges it.
Life is a game of risk/reward. I play the odds, and as I said, we are in the eye of the storm right now. I’m, literally, buying my daughter time as he is a “fun” dad, and they love each other dearly. We all know that children do better in life with both parents (as long as they aren’t being intentionally abused) Plus, I made a vow to myself, and my God, that I truly, finally, meant. It took a long time but I finally made peace with my failure – my goodness that is a hard thing to do – but I will NOT drag my child through a contentious divorce. I guess I really shouldn’t vent here either. I am sorry for that.
My first duty is to raise, protect and nurture, my daughter, and now that she is old enough to see her father’s covert behavior (he thinks he is sneaky) and understand my feelings, it has removed the 2nd to last roadblock to getting the hell out.
Thanks, to every single one, for their kind words. The only thing most, that haven’t actually been trapped in this situation – and I have before, there is a lesson here the universe wants me to learn even though the individuals appeared totally dis-similar, I find myself in the exact same spot, I digress – don’t realize, many women are killed AFTER they leave. The guy doesn’t go over the edge until AFTER they are apart. Plus, I shoot straighter than he, and he buys me fun toys that I could use any day against him. I really do not fear out of the blue death at his hands, any more than anyone else should. And I work hard to keep a level of peace in our home.
I still welcome any and all prayers. If you could though, please do me the favor of praying that he stops drinking and finds someone else to love. If either/both of those things were to happen, I believe I would be let go with great haste and with an affinity to co-parent with our daughter as our only concern.
My biggest concern is that even when I should do something/say something, I stuff it down inside but it only creates strife to say it aloud. Which is why I found myself sicker than ever, fat, growing fatter, addicted to carbs, depressed and on the edge of giving up and becoming a sad, sick, doctor-cared for, landwhale. Especially when this situation overlaps my growing horror at what is coming that I can’t control.
Cripes, anyway, I run at the mouth, thank you all, I’ll include you in my prayers too.
The problem is not you, TE, a lot of men find it hard to live with a strong woman. Arnold said they were “Girly men” and we’ve discussed the continued pussification of the American male.
@Card, thank you, but trust me I am not clean in this, I have fault. Wayyy too old to try the naive play, and I won’t make these mistakes again. Though he is a special case, and if I had not met him mentally (or thought I had)/virtually, we would have never dated. Ever.
Though he is feminized, he also still thinks its 1950 and he should not have to help in the home. And since I’m as much the fix it guy as most husband’s, it means I’m responsible for 30% of the business and 90% of the house and child. I’m freaking tired.
If I ever were to pursue a degree in psychology, I would do an anonymous case-study on the man. Seriously.
Really, it isn’t feminism as much as apathy and our society’s need to have “experts” tell them what to think and do.
Mothers used to have balls, now they live in denial and apathy. Same as the fathers.
My problem is he told me he was a doer and thinker, and what he was, was born blessed and a real good story teller.
What I now realize is he represents the majority of my neighbors. Absolute refusal to do ANYTHING, all while whining about being tired and broke and spending on luxuries while ignoring what is headed our way.
You would think that someone that loved me would actually value what I say. You would be wrong.
Enjoying the warmer weather Card?
As for strong women, you are right. Though I’ve suspected/known for decades, I finally believe and accept it as true. I’m just very, very, thankful my son and his family are ready, willing and able to homestead near me and run a farm. The funding continues to be my issue..
@TE
“Enjoying the warmer weather Card?”
Yes I am! Did you get the note I sent?
@Card, did not receive the note, and me too.
try this email, as my other one was virus hit and I remain unable to get go daddy to fix it.
te speaks out (at) yahoo
TE, you seem able to handle the situation and seem to have a good fix on what your husband is really all about. And you also are equipped to defend yourself if push came to shove.
I respect your decisions, especially in view of your daughter’s welfare. I would hate to separate my children from a good father,no matter how crummy a husband he was to me. My mother had an easy decision- my old man was a terrible husband and an abusive, dangerous father who moreover deserted us in destitution, so there was no choice. For most people, though, the choice is much more difficult and involves a lot of unpleasant trade-offs.
@Chicago, exactly. My son’s father was volatile, and abused drugs as well as alcohol. I got out while the getting was good with teeth intact. I mention the going off the cliff because it is becoming more common by the day. I know my home is not immune to the phenomena and I know that he has more to lose – mental status – than most.
Thanks again, internet friend.
Stucky says: I do KNOW that several folks here MEAN WELL with giving TE advice …. but, I feel most uncomfortable reading it ….
As for me, I was not trying to give advice. I have said before that the secretary had complained to her co-worker about her husband’s threats. She ran away and lived in an apartment. Then she (stupidly) went back to the guy and all was quiet for a spell. The boss was quite irritated that the co-worker had not shared anything about what was going on with the secretary and the husband. Because she only learned after the shootings that all this was foretold. Silent friend could have saved the life of 3 young girls and 2 stupid adults.
Boss – He was the kind of guy who had no sympathy about waking up the girls at 3 AM to sweep some dirt he found on the floor.
Secretary’s brother – I don’t know where my sister found her interest in sports, she had never been very athletic.
Fan – The girls were stars in the volleyball court, they hit that ball with all their might (and fury).