As almost 400,000 more people join the food stamp program, Wall Street bankers party on. They had a wonderful weekend in the Hamptons. The cocktail parties were exquisite. The weather was fabulous. They only had to call the cops once to run the ignorant masses off their private beaches. Retail sales at Tiffanys and Saks 5th Avenue are booming. They are looking forward to another record year of $200 billion in bonuses for their absolutely brilliant financial acumen. Who else on the planet could take free money and generate risk free profits?
Meanwhile, in the real world, the unemployment rate is 22% and the economy has ground to a halt. The $7 trillion of stimulus has failed. Paul Krugman declares that if it had been $14 trillion, it would have worked. There are no jobs being added. More people are getting laid off. QE2, which has propped up the stock market for the last 6 months will end in 3 weeks. Anyone with an ounce of brains (this eliminates Wall Street economists, CNBC anchors, and 99% of the politicians in Washington DC) can see we are already back in recession.
The government response to this downturn will set the course of this country for the next ten years. Do you think they will choose wisely?
Horrible Economic Data Continues: ADP Plunges To 38K On Expectations OF 175K; Downward NFP Revisions Next
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2011 08:18 -0400
The latest economic data is out and it is horrendous: with expectations for the ADP employment number to come at 175K, following a downward revised 177K print previously, it tumbled to a puny 38K in May. While this number is extremely irrelevant in terms of correlating to the actual NFP number due out this Friday, expect to see a spate of downward NFP revisions on this latest confirmation that the US economy has stalled even with QE2 still in effect for another 29 days (and soon to be extended). From the report: “Today’s ADP National Employment Report suggests that employment growth slowed sharply in May. Employment in the nonfarm private-business sector rose 38,000 from April to May on a seasonally adjusted basis. A deceleration in employment, while disappointing, is not entirely surprising. In the first quarter, GDP grew at only a 1.8% rate and only about 2¼% over the last four quarters. This is below most economists’ estimate of the economy’s potential growth rate and normally would be associated with very weak growth of employment.” Precisely as expected by Zero Hedge.
More:
May’s ADP Report estimates employment in the service-providing sector rose by 48,000, marking 17 consecutive months of employment gains while employment in the goods-producing sector fell 10,000 following six months of increases. Manufacturing employment fell 9,000 in May following seven consecutive monthly gains.
Employment among large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, decreased by 19,000, while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 30,000. Employment for small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, rose 27,000 in May.
Employment in the construction industry dropped 8,000 in May, completely reversing April’s increase. The total decrease in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 is 2,124,000.
Also, so much for the financial and construction work renaissance:
The only thing now preventing the Fed to begin the push for QE3 is the continuously resilient stock market, which needs to drop at least 15-20% before Bernanke is given a carte blanche. Yet paradoxically, it is stocks’ anticipation of QE 3 that makes the actual political case for QE 3 impossible. Geithner upcoming NYT op-ed: “Welcome To The Catch 22.”
With the government using all the available money to fight never ending wars, and increasing the size of security agencies (TSA and Homeland Security) to protect itself, there is no money left to create private sector jobs.
Goldman Cuts NFP Forecast To 100,000 – Sheer Panic On Wall Street As The Heroin Addicts Demand QE3 NOW
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2011 10:17 -0400
Not even 5 mintues ago we predicted that Goldman would lower its 150,000 NFP forecast to 125,000. Well, even we were off. Hatzius just cut his Friday NFP forecast to 100,000. Just like last August when the horrendous NFP number set off QE2, so Wall Street is in full panic mode, as it tries to find a way to crush stock enough to give Bernanke validation for QE3, but without getting retail to throw in the towel for the last time. Still to come: the firm trimming H2 GDP to under 3%. We give it a few days. Elsewhere, Joe Lavorgna is dry heaving in a corner somewhere, trying to find a way not to look like a complete idiot for having to cut his NFP forecast two days in a row, from 300,000 to under 150,000.
Another Weak Report; Lowering Payroll Forecast to 100k
BOTTOM LINE: ISM report weakens substantially, confirming significant slowing in growth in manufacturing sector. We are lowering our forecast for May nonfarm payroll employment to +100,000 from +150,000 previously.
MAIN POINTS:
1. The ISM manufacturing index weakened sharply in May, falling to 53.5 from 60.4 in April. The new orders and production components both fell by roughly 10 points-very large declines by historical standards. The employment index held up better, but also fell to 58.2 from 62.7. We continue to believe that supply chain disruptions in the auto sector resulting from the events in Japan are one factor behind the abrupt weakening in the manufacturing surveys. However, it cannot explain all of the weakness in the recent data, including that seen in measures of employment growth.
2. We are lowering our forecast for May nonfarm payroll employment to +100,000 from +150,000 previously. While the ADP report has a mixed tracked record in forecasting payroll growth, our research indicates it should receive some weight. Moreover, the weakness in the ADP report follows a streak of weaker-than-expected news on both the labor market and activity as whole. We are holding our forecast for the unemployment rate at 8.9% and for average hourly earnings growth at 0.2% mom.
The story promoted in the Blogos’fear’ that there are no jobs is a crock of shit.
Take some fucking personal responsibilty here and move your sorry ass to one of the States with low unemployment.
PS. I’m still a douchebag no matter what name I post under.
English Rose/M’ Admin
Looks like your mad cow infected brain is acting up again. I guess it makes you post under different names. Are you and RE having fun on the Yahoo Board talking doom with the 3 other members? What’s worse, a one trick pony, or a one trick pony worshipper?
How’s that English socialism working out for ya?
I think our class of politician will do or say whatever it takes to get re-elected. Brains or economic intelligence? Not a requirement to control an economy.
I posted this yesterday, but I think it deserves posting again. This is what happens when we let the Feds/Bernake/Geitner try to stimulate the economy and create jobs; they end up costing $800,000 each, and kill off 20 other jobs. There was a story some months back about 3 jobs created with stimulus spending in California that cost $2 million, a little under $700,000 each. Until the government gets out of the picture, we will continue on the downward spiral into hell.
….Meanwhile, the feds have completely failed. The figures we reported last week showed that the ‘recovery’ efforts had totally washed up. Each job ‘created’ by quantitative easing, for example, cost more than $800,000. Assuming the average wage is about $40,000, this means the program destroyed the equivalent of 20 jobs for every one it created. Instead of creating jobs, the Fed’s QE program created inflation – especially in the price of energy. Family budgets suffer….
Read more: The True Products of Quantitative Easing
The nice thing about the 46 members on Reverse Engineering is they actually read articles before they make idiotic contributions to the comments section.
RE
RE
I sure hope they post 4,000 worthless pictures too.
B b b but The Governator is keeping people working!
Cameras caught Republican New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Tuesday arriving at his son’s baseball game in a State Police helicopter. Photographer Christopher Costa snapped several pictures of Christie as he exited the $12.5 million aircraft.
Well, Technically Its State [Union?] Employees….who werent out of work..and prolly needed some overtime.
[blockquote]The nice thing about the 46 members on Reverse Engineering is they actually read articles before they make idiotic contributions to the comments section. -RE[/blockquote]
Sure. But how long does it take to read DOOM, GLOOM and KABOOM?
@KB
Depends how fast you read. For slow readers, it takes too long so they don’t bother reading but just make idiotic comments.
RE
Out of the “gained” jobs, wonder how many were actually full-time, with benefits and with wages that could SUPPORT a family or buy a home.
Not many.
Part-time work, no insurance and a huge tax bill looming for 2013 when the mandates of insurance kick in.
Ah, smell the success and “recovery.”
Oh well, maybe this time Benny will just make Krugman completely raptuous and print the full $7 trillion between July and October 2012. That way they all keep their jobs, bonsues and their fearless leader.
What fun.
The MSM is reporting this, which means TPTB are gearing up. ll the Hedge Fund managers in the last few days talking Negative is further indication something is up.
RE
U.S. economic recovery is faltering
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Paul Sancya/ AP – Assembly line workers Dave Zamora, left, and Steven Saleem work on a pre-production Chevrolet Sonic at a General Motors plant. U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in May at the slowest pace in 20 months.
By Neil Irwin, Wednesday, June 1, 7:38 AM
The U.S. economic recovery is faltering.
The latest data Wednesday showed that the manufacturing sector, which has been a consistent driver of growth over the past year, slowed dramatically in May. A separate report showed exceptionally weak growth in private payrolls last month. Both reports follow other recent reports pointing to falling home prices, softening consumer spending and rising layoffs.
“Jobs”? Jobs are for slobs! Take the reins in your hands and create your OWN job, because if you’re depending upon TPTB for your survival, sustenance and security, you’re playing into the hands of those who are slowly but surely strangling you, unless you work in a vital and necessary industry, e.g. energy, food production, hands-on health care, tangible good production… and the less genuine but clearly vital: finance, entertainment… Ah, hell, I don’t want to think about this anymore! If the West doesn’t go back to PRODUCING tangible goods, your job will be outsourced anyway, unless you’re some sort of government leech.
Meanwhile, I write for a living, plus produce blood sausage, veggies and such, and while by statistical standards I’m as poor as a church-mouse, I live a life that I love and by the standards of a Spanish lottery-winner billboard I once saw, am rich, because I OWN MY TIME!!
Paradigm change: it’s where it’s at!
Oscar
Do you have a spare room?
Just wondering what would have happened if the money siphoned off by the Wall Screet swells had been diverted into infrastructure projects, such as roads, bridges, rail improvements and other civic works, whether we might not have made a dent in unemployment. I know that’s an anathema to libertarians, but at least we’d have some public works to show for it instead of a handful of magic beans.
Instead we get a slow-motion Bankster’s Coup and nothing for our money. Within the space of one generation, we’ve gone from people who could put a man on the moon to people who can’t build a bridge.
@ Admin:
I have a spare house. Two br/one bath, 1100 sq. ft, superinsulated strawbale, access to nearly-self-sufficient farm and greenhouse, incomparable views in very comfortable climate, all this is yours for U$D 450 a month. I am waiting for the right tenant, as in awaiting a refugee who knows which way the wind is blowing. I can be contacted through my unspaced name at gmail. Serious inquiries will be answered. No kidding.
22% unemployment. That’s a lower percentage of the current American working class that I, as an employer, would want to NOT hire.
@ Oscar
I hope you can be reached by going south on the Chattahoochie because that’s how I’m escaping the clutches of the FSA in the giant ghetto of Hoodlanta. Why?
1) Avoiding the roads, as they all pass through FSA turf no matter which way you drive, and
2) The FSA can’t swim
@Oscar, your spare house sounds like heaven, wish I was in a position to take you up on that.
As for your ideas, while they USED to be doable in America, they really aren’t any more.
We can’t grow veggies, or make jam – or blood sausages – and sell them. We can no longer give them away without an inspection, license and regular check ups from the USDA and FDA.
There are already approximately ten thousand landscapers in my city of 100k, everyday I get a new homemade flyer on my door or mailbox.
In most locations in the US, you can’t open a business out of your home without zoning (and commercial taxes) variances. My city routinely shuts down grandma’s babysitting and carpenters garage wood shops.
Ah, America, land of the free (shit), home of the tit-sucking.
Off Topic: My wife received a notice of blackout period for her 401(k) administrator. Am I just being paranoid or does this seem like odd timing. Looked at the verbage, and as a previous Series 7 and 63 holder it seems kind of odd. I told her to cash it in, pay the penalty and buy PM’s but she thinks (knows) I am a crazed loon.
The Obama administration is already working on a jobs program that will ensure every American that is Too Small Too Matter will be working at least 12 hrs a day 7 days a week so they can put food on the table. This program is so effective that is GUARANTEED to be passed and put into place should the Obama administration (or a business as usual Republican) gain another 4 years.
It’s called Nature Strip subsistence farming.
That’s the change you’ll be getting…
The United States of Mexetina – It’s change alright…
TeresaE: how many more piglets before the sow dries up?
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Reverse Engineer sed: The nice thing about the 46 members on Reverse Engineering is they actually read articles before they make idiotic contributions to the comments section.
RE
well thank you. we here at the platform pride ourselves on our efficiency!
Take Pride in it all you like Howie. I know Jim does. It’s how he chooses to run his website, it appeals to his personality traits. I am quite fine with trolling the website like everybody else does. im clearly does not want me to continue contributing articles, since he repetitively invited me to stop doing it. So I took him up on his suggestion. That is all.
RE
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The celebrations continue at the news the Rants have ceased!
And continue:
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LLPOH, the Rants have not ceased. I just no longer will put up articles here. Instead I rant in the comments. Its a format change. However, the animations are good 🙂
RE
RE, the voice of the antithesis of our our society’s irrational exuberance must not be squelched. This is not to say that everything he utters is prophetic or timely, but we must not ignore it all.
Ignore the F***ing hiipo dance, dude. Spaceman Spiff can suck it too.
RE – I have noticed the words still flow on. And on. And on. C’est la vie! BTW – I particularly like the hippo, the guy in the orange pants, and the cat. Actually, they all made me laugh. There was a dancing skeleton, but I will use him later.
I’m on a Calvin and Hobbes Junket myself
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RE
one more try
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RE
One more – for all of the pervs:
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And another, for the thoughtful
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RE
Off topic–
I for one enjoyed the RE posted rants. They invited hundreds of posts, and contribute greatly to the vitality of TBP. Even when the shit-throwing monkeys are out in force. I think that Jim might do well to remember that a little outrageous opinion is like spicy food– good for the digestion, clears the sinuses, makes you fart.
Bring back the rants!
llpoh, RE– enjoying the pix. llpoh– rockin’ animated gifs!
The Daily Rants will return to TBP only if Admin requests it. Since Hell will Freeze Over before he would do that, said Frosbite Falls Daily Rants will not be published on TBP. You can however read them over on Reverse Engineering.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/reverseengineering/
RE
RE
I never told you to not post anything. I publish everything that anyone puts up. For an end of world doomster, you sure are thin skinned. I will not request anything from anyone. You are free to do whatever you please. Don’t act like I banned you. That is another one of your false storylines.
TeresaE Says: In most locations in the US, you can’t open a business out of your home without zoning (and commercial taxes) variances.
You are correct. In the old days small business in most cases started at the home residence and as the business built up the next investment was in a commercial site. It was the same with homebuilding. One slowly built their house as money came in.
Today building codes and local government prevent these type of green shoots. There is a lack of common sense in this and why new business which is desparately needed cannot fund its own startup. Government wants to see a business plan and an illogical investment of funds that are not available to carry out the government’s vision of how a business should start-up.
It is my hope that as local governments run out of tax money to run their huge overhead intruding workforce (code enforcers) that they will not have the ability to harrass people for business start-ups at home. Also when people begin to look at their homes as a place to live and work out of rather than an investment, then a new mindset will emerge.
Business does not need a large investment for start-up if one is modest and works within their means. It is government that has made it expensive with all their regulations and compliance rules. Government has no common sense. Government is the problem. Government wants to regulate areas it has no business in.
I am looking for the economic collapse because to me it freedom. The collapse has to affect the adverse operation of the government in controlling business. Government needs a new attitude.
@Admin
I disagree. First you invited me to quit:
” you are free to leave and go over to your Yahoo page with 3 members.”- Admin
then you threatened to ban me
“As the Nazi Administrator of TBP, keep your eyes open. I could exterminate you at any time. ”
I took you up on your suggestion to return to write on Yahoo. If you retract that suggestion and suggest that I come back here to write, I will do so. Otherwise, you obviously do not want me to write on TBP, which is fine.
RE
RE
Every time you bitch about what you don’t like about TBP, I inform you that you are free to leave.
Don’t think you can throw shit without getting shit thrown back at you. You purposely provoke fights and when I fire back, you sulk, take your bat and ball, and say you aren’t coming back.
I will post anything that anyone wants to say on my site. I’ve never stopped anyone from posting anything. I will not beg anyone to post. If I see something written by you in my pending list, I will publish it.
Stop being so thin skinned.
Sorry no, not good enough. When I returned here to write after divorcing Jasn, I was under the mistaken impression you wanted my contributions. You make it apparent you do not want them each time you invite me to leave or threaten to ban me. Until you tell me you actually WANT my contributions, I will not contribute. Do you want me to contribute or not?
RE
RE
You make me laugh. When I split with Jason, you motherfucked me and my new site. I never asked you to come to my site. I couldn’t care less whether you post or not. Everyone is free to write whatever they want. Your choice. Not mine.
You really are a drama queen.
Should we all vote again?
RE
I already said you CAN post anything.
Now you are asking me to WANT you to rant? I would rather stick my dick in a rusty hand operated coffee grinder.
You are an Attention Whore baby. Fuck off before I ban your sorry ass.
As I said, Hell would Freeze Over first.
RE
The last Administrator post was a Doppleganger. I know who it is, but won’t reveal him/her.
Here is RE after being told that he can post anything he likes:
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RE after his mom says he can suck on her tit anytime he wants.
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It was one of these two people.
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C’mon RE. Post here again.
If nothing else, just think of the people it will piss off.
Beg him, guys. That is what he want. He needs his ego stroked just a bit more. His ego is attached directly to his dick. Too bad he can’t get past that little issue.
RE
PLEASE post your rants again!! For you are …
…. acute, adept, agile, alert, apt, astute, bold, brainy, bright, brilliant, brisk, canny, clever, crafty, effective, eggheaded, fresh, genius, good, impertinent, ingenious, keen, knowing, long-haired, nervy, nimble, on the ball, pert, pointed, quick, quick-witted, ready, resourceful, sassy, sharp, shrewd, skull, slick, wise, awesome, fascinating, incredible, marvelous, prodigious, shocking, stunning, surprising, unbelievable, wonderful, celebrated, distinguished, eminent, excellent, exceptional, glorious, illustrious, magnificent, prominent, splendid, superb, accomplished, acquainted with, brainy, civilized, coached, corrected, cultivated, cultured, developed, enlightened, enriched, erudite, expert, finished, fitted, formed, informed, initiated, instructed, intelligent, knowledgeable, lettered, literary, literate, nurtured, polished, prepared, professional, refined, scholarly, schooled, scientific, shaped, skilled, tasteful, taught, trained, tutored, versed in, well-informed, well-read, well-taught, well-versed ….
How can we possibly exist without you?
Even llpoh has seen the light.
Please don’t withhold yourself from us ignorant masses. WE NEED TO BE SAVED!!!
All Hail To RE!! The Glorious. The Magnificent. The Benevolent/ Peace Be Upon Him!
Stuck
You forgot succinct.
Nope. Only one vote counts here.
RE
Admin – thank you so-o-o-o-o much.
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RE is getting bitch slapped.
Stuck
RE is skull?
Punk
You ACTUALLY read through that list?
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