It’s on. I’m meeting Neil Howe on Thursday. I’m looking forward to finding out what he thinks will happen next.
If you have some questions for me to ask, fire away.
FOURTH TURNING QUESTIONS
It’s on. I’m meeting Neil Howe on Thursday. I’m looking forward to finding out what he thinks will happen next.
If you have some questions for me to ask, fire away.
Regarding your meeting with Neil Howe, I was hoping that there can be some explanation with his theory of generations to explain the current state of affairs in the US. Specifically looking for an y explanation he can give on generational graft, greed, cooruption and morality. Additionally, when can we expect to see the millenials rise collectively to the challenge of leading thi country?
I’m envious.
Regarding Millennials rising to the challenge of leading, remember that Civics don’t take leadership roles until AFTER the 4T/Crisis. They’re the foot soldiers, led by Nomads and Prophets.
Which brings me to (some of) my questions. Does Howe think the GenX/Nomads will rise to the challenge, or will their apathy keep them out of it this time, with devastating consequences?
Along those lines, I’d love clarification on the concept of the “Grey Champion.” Did they (S&H) always conceive the concept as a group of people who say, “Enough!,” thus starting the process of change, or did they consider the GC an individual, an inspirational leader, who people fell behind (e.g., Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt)?
What does he see as the major issues driving this Crisis, that need to be resolved before the end of the 4T? And, since we know that a Crisis does not always turn out well, could the concept of Advancement/Atonement be real, meaning we’re in for an atonement cycle akin to post-Civil War times?
Does he think that the sheer size and idealism of the Boom Generation make this Crisis different from previous ones? Or that the globalization we’ve experienced in this Saeculum will have an impact on events of this Crisis — such as a different Regeneracy? Or, to the other extent, will globalization be one of the issues that is driving this Crisis, or even some of the “solutions” from the last one (New Deal, etc) that have become warped and now have to be reconsidered?
I’m sure I’ll think of more, but there are a couple to get started. Wish I could be a fly on the wall.
Thinker
I knew I could count on you to have great questions. Neil is stopping on his way back to DC from NYC. We’ll probably only have an hour or two to talk at the train station.
Can you ask him why boomers are such shit-eating piles of wasted flesh?
Ok, just kidding… really.
Really, the question I would have would be in the department of the loss of liberties each 4th turning seems to hold for some while simultaneously “liberating” others…. While we’re taught in school about virtues… at least in my day… found in the Forefathers, Lincoln and even FDR, a little research shows that each time a little bit of what folks regard as “American” dies. Each war, each reaction, each behind-the scenes tug of the string pulls us toward a new ideal that may or may not be “good”, depending on perspective.
The question I would ask in regards to that phenom?
What do you, oh mighty Howe, see as the parallels in the modern arena?
Good question, Colma.
Jim, what are some of your questions? I’d love to hear them. May generate some other ideas.
Thinker
I want to know whether he thinks a Prophet leader will be elected in 2012.
I want to get his view on why the Boomer/Prophet generation is not protecting the Millenial generation and giving them a reason to follow their lead.
I’m interested in his view on a Fourth Turning war and the likely opponent.
I want to see what he thinks about OWS and whether it will have a lasting impact.
I want to get his view on when the regeneracy will begin.
1) What effect does he estimate that modern technology has on the timing of cycles? There is far more vivid historical record available now than ever before.
2) Similarly, what effect does social programming of certain views have on the cycle process? I am thinking specifically of the typical school programming that WWII was a “good war” in which the morally pure allies defeated the definition-of-evil axis, and to a lesser extent the programming that the Great Depression was a time of terrible want but social unity and shared sacrifice (which anyone who studies can see is far from the truth).
3) Are there any historical indicators to predict whether a cycle like we are in will result in an ultimate victory over something and thus survival of some parts of the existing system, vs. total destruction of the whole thing?
Thinker: Thanks, but my question would be milk-toast I imagine.
Admin: Right on.
All interesting questions. On the 4T war — Total War — I’d also ask if he thinks that it could end up being an economic or technology-oriented war, vs. sending soldiers.
I think you’ll find his answer on the Prophet – protection of the Civic generation interesting.
Question:
When the titanic statues of Strauss and Howe are erected in every major city left standing after the Great Emergency, taller than every building, Would Mr. Howe like himself looking into the vast distance while the late Great Strauss is depicted thumbing through a book with a furled brow, or the other way around?
Ok, maybe not really…
Really, though, I’ve talked often lately with folk who see a great convergence of ideas… like OWS is so ridiculed for… as the only path from continual systems of domination. I hate to get all RE, but the “isms” we know are based on old ideas and old industrial models… basically models of neo-fuedalism.
In his opinion, is the escape of this black v. white, Capitalism v. Socialism, Consumption v. Conservation, etc, remotely possible or will the “Them and Us” truly win the day, yet again, and marry survival with what is normally an absolute brawl between seeming opposites?
I will be interested in this conversation. I’m glad somebody is having it.
On the 4T war, a US drone just went down in Iran. I expect terrorists to be flying drones in 6-8 years. They only need a couple pieces of technology.
Ask him whether he has read the Pew survey on generations that just came out recently and whether he thinks Ron Paul or someone like him could capture the Millennial vote with his anti-war stance. And how does he explain the Silent’s apparent new activism. Is it just because the Greatest G’s are pretty much gone?
The report is here: http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/11-3-11%20Generations%20Release.pdf
You may want to read it before talking to him, because I am sure he is thinking about it.
fyi — I just noticed that study defines the Gen-X/Boomer generations the wrong way. Not sure about the others.
All interesting questions. I am looking forward to your write-up, Jim. If I may, I’d like to second Snick’s #1-given the incredible speed of information (and disinformation) with today’s technology, does Neil think the duration of events might be altered? That is contrary to the generational sequence of events, but it does seem like shit happens faster these days.
Howe now — Does the optimism about the Class of 2000 and the immediate future now seem misplaced? That’s my impression reading “Milllennials Rising”. All the pull quotes we so positive.
And — How long does the Unraveling last?! Each day, week, month seem to bring more destruction of the rule of law and Constitutional liberties. Where/when does the Crisis start. Are we there yet?
Admin, the picture I get from “Milllennials Rising” is that the protection was cultural, did start with a change of attitude by the Boooomers, having ignored the Xers and making amends, things like “Baby on Board” onward led to “the most protected and ‘special’ generation ever.”
Admin, the picture I get from “Milllennials Rising” is that the protection was cultural, did start with a change of attitude by the Boooomers, having ignored the Xers and making amends, things like “Baby on Board” onward led to “the most protected and ‘special’ generation ever.”
-Novista
Let’s see what a few years in the grinder yields…
Admin.,
Will a Prophet be elected or a movement will bring out a leader? Ron Paul is somewhat of a Prophet, but it seems that things have to get real bad real fast for the voters to turn to him. I think that a currency crisis will have materialize, which is most likely 2 to 5 years away.
It will be interesting to hear what Howe has to say, as he certainly has his fingers on the pulse of this turning.
In a global economy like we have now, would this link fourth turnings together throughout the world, unlike in the past?
With the eldest generation, including now boomers, so firmly entrenched, so unwilling to yield, so righteously entitled, how can there possibly be a Fourth Turning or meaningful change of any kind?
This is not to mention the historic rollback of personal liberties and protections from government, previously unimaginable militaristic police technology and methods including but not limited to tasers, stun weapons, sonic devices, electronic surveillance, relational databases, GPS, electronic profiling, public “education” programs to turn neighbors into agents of the state, etc. Remember, the Elders control everything.
The foregoing is all scary in theory. The Elders however, have in reality shown a convincing willingness to use all of the above. So If change – the Fourth Turning – can occur, it resembles a gnarly, rusted, set old bolt that won’t turn with just a wrench.
No, the rusty old bolt of society will need serious coaxing. LIke WD-40 for starters, then hammers, blow torches, breaking bars, then finally air chisels and drills.
Niel Howe what say you? How will the intransigent forces of the Elders in charge be reconciled to the vitality, hopes, and legitimate demands of new generations?
Failure to lead let to the one abberation in the S&H pattern – the Civil War. Do conditions now – Prophet ‘fire-eaters’ and a young beneration not being led & inspired by noble example – lead Mr. H. to think that a repeat of that pattern could yet emerge here? (As much as I’d like to believe that we’re well into 4T territory, the tide of vileness and cynical corruption has yet to receede – see Penn State & Syracuse, for example – and may not yet have crested. The ‘John Brown’ moments, such as Tom Ball’s self-immplation, go – so far – unnoticed.)
I’d like to know; … Does it make any difference who is elected in 2012?
I don’t think it does …. even if RP gets elected. One man against a 100% corrupted system? We’re fucked no matter what, I believe.