Our Cycle of War used as the seed the Wheeler Index. However, there were some major problems with key events that were overlooked. So we corrected the data and then extended it for the period following his death. We then created a parallel index correlated to economics. The next result was a series of cycles appeared and a correlation with the economy emerged very clearly interfaced with debt. The fundamental principle to emerge from that work was the fact that we could both distinguish between domestic civil unrest which begins and at times moves into revolution, and international events. There are interesting political responses which often determine the outcome.
On the international level, war emerges from two separate trends. First there is the more traditional trend where the economy turns down which results in government needing too find an external enemy or there will be civil unrest that overthrows the government. This version is intertwined with the Civil Unrest Model and is often the escape value for government to retain power. Here the domestic unrest model can be transformed into an international conflict if politics is desperate to save itself and sees that way out.
The second trend stands in contrast to the first in what we identified as the Conquest Model whereby governments seek to expand their territory for money and power detached from economic pressure caused by a decline. This can be seen as Alexander the Great, Rome, Charlemagne and Japan, etc. The subdivision of the international conflict level we call the retribution model whereby there is a preceding economic crisis. This subdivision is illustrated by Napoleon and Hitler. These were trends that were also an admixture between domestic economic problems that leads to war as in the case of Napoleon and Hitler as distinguished from a pure power expansion.
Creating a database that could distinguish all these moving parts was key to creating our model for the Cycle of War ™ which others have tried to mimic without the database assuming all we did was use the Wheeler Index. The cycle frequency we discovered is not discoverable from using just the Wheeler Index.
Here is what we see for Europe. There are many rising trends toward separatist movements. This will rise further and we will see this begin to emerge as a far more common trend over the next two years. This weekend, we have the Catalan Vote which cannot be suppressed and it should trigger unilateral steps towards region’s secession from Spain. Keep in mind that Spain was formed with the marriage of Ferdinand and Isabella. Catalan independence seeks to reverse that merger and this is being driven by the insanity of Spain trying to stay inside the Euro forcing austerity and rising taxation upon the people in the midst of wholesale corruption.
Now in Texas, we have seen a consistent separatist movement for years. Now a nationalist group wants Texas Secession on the Primary Ballot. Even the resistance to Gay Marriage is a key to rising separatist movements within the USA and the Tea Party is also a reflection of the clash in philosophy where one nation for all shoving down the throats of everyone a central policy is starting to irritate people and when the economy turns down, this will flare up even more.
We see this trend rising in Canada with Quebec and we will see this trend emerge where Staten Island will seek to separate from New York City.
Welcome to the other side of 2015.75
Can we PUHLEEEZE stop talking about Texas seceding??!!
We KNOW what the Federal Government will do if that happens. (Google “American Civil War”).
I don’t know the actual percentage of Texans who truly want to secede … but, I’m guessing it’s a tiny number. Ya’ll want Civil War Part Two?
Shit Stucky : read the article over at counterpunch call ….debt bombs exploding. Going to be more thenTexas seceding if these cities , states want to get out and away from this .
I thought you liked counterpunch magazine .
Civil War Part Two might end up being the best thing that could happen to us.
Stucky,
I think “CWII” is really a misnomer because there was never a “Civil War I”.
Hisree Lesson Time ya big goofy fucker…
The South wanted nothing to do with the Damnyankees. If we did, we could have just taken Washington after First Manassas – we whupped the shit out of them Yankees and they ran hell bent for leather back to DC. Panic was so rife in DC, people started self-evacuating… just grabbing their shit and hauling ass.
The Damnyankees, responding to Mr. Lincoln’s call for 75,000 assholes to invade the South, met Joe Johnston, Beuregard, old Stonewall, etc, and got their asses handed to them… damn shame it never occurred to any of those guys that sacking DC would have saved everyone involved a lot of fuckin’ future heartache…
Alls we ever wanted was to be left the fuck alone… we didn’t want shit to do with the Damnyankees or any of their machinations… .
The “Civil War” should rightly be called “The Second American Revolution”… but other names will do… War of Southern Independence, Mr. Lincoln’s War, War of Northern Aggression… anything but “Civil War”.
The Hisree Lesson now finished, you seem to think that Tay-has seceding will spark another conflict… the inverse of that is that if they keep quiet and don’t secede, that no conflict will occur.
At this point, a future conflict is a foregone conclusion – the only question of any relevance is “What will start it?”…. might as well be Tay-has wanting to go their own way as any other reason…
Don’t misconstrue this post as advocating for open warfare with the Federals… knowing that it’s coming and will likely spell the end of the Republic as it currently stands is not advocating for a conflict that will cause millions to suffer and die during it…
When South Carolina seceded, it wasn’t long before the rest joined. Many parts of the country want to cut the chains loose from the Hell hole of WDC and anybody seceding could be like a bolt of lighting that blasts open that bottomless pit. I can smell the sulphur whenever the wind is from the northest.
Even the resistance to Gay Marriage is a key to rising separatist movements within the USA and the Tea Party is also a reflection of the clash in philosophy where one nation for all shoving down the throats of everyone a central policy is starting to irritate people and when the economy turns down, this will flare up even more.
How do you read a sentence like the above? I quit reading this guy a long time ago, but skimmed this article hoping that he might have encountered a writing class. He hasn’t. I’ll check again in another few years.
Robert ,I not all of us are highly educated or ultra sophisticated like you .Some of us (like Billy ) need help.
Zero chance of any state legally seceding. A Yugoslavian style breakup is more likely then that.
And there will never be another ‘civil war’ like the 1861-65 Northern inspired murder-rape-arson crime spree. Nope, if, and that’s a mighty big IF, there’s a total breakdown in society and things get sporty, the war will be all against all.
take bismarck for example, did his merger of german states end well? subdivide and subdivide and fight the forces of unification which always leads to a strong central government, for whose benefit?
BB
Serviceable writing requires neither advanced education or ultra-sophistication. I’ve seen better writing from middle-schoolers. Bad writing is bad writing, and obscures whatever it was the writer was trying to convey. For those who need help, start with Strunk and White. The quality of writing reflects the quality of thought. If that statement makes me a writing snob, guilty as charged.
Robert , You and I both know the civil war was about slavery. This should get Billy firing on all cylinders.
Where did you get all your advanced degrees?What is / are your areas of expertise.You don’t have to be so unassuming.Now tell the truth.
BB
If you go to my website, straightlinelogic.com, there is a tab: About Robert Gore, above the picture of the train. That page details degrees, professional accomplishments, and the rest.
BB
If you’re looking for some good writing, buy the book at the bottom of the page.
Robert , ok
@ Robert Gore
Hey!
I didn’t know you wrote SLL! I’ve read your stuff. The folks over at WRS think mighty highly of you. Not trying to kiss ass, but I’ve caught myself nodding my head in agreement more than once after reading your scribblings…
Writing snob or not, SLL is a damn good site.
I know my writing isn’t anywhere near Strunk & White’s standards – and that I fall into Southern now and again (y’all, them are, ain’t, etc) and tend to sprinkle four letter words and other colorful obscenities into my posts – but I think I get my points across well enough. Still got my copy of Strunk & White around here somewhere… they made me buy it when I was at University. I actually did read it…
Anyways, it’s kinda cool to see someone else from the Interwebz show up here… keep on snobbing.
Oh, and bb? Fuck you. I ain’t taking the bait today, so go drown worms somewhere else…
@ Lysander,
Zero chance of any state legally seceding.
“Legality” is only established after the war is over. If the South had won their Independence, I have complete confidence that their secession would have been judged to be legal, just and right. As it was, it was judged ‘illegal’ only after we had been brought to heel and were at the mercy of the damnyankees…
Winners write the rules and the history books. I don’t have to like it. Just have to accept it.
A Yugoslavian style breakup is more likely then that.
A Hobbesian Bellum omnium contra omnes? Probably. Balkanization has always been the goal of those who have sought to destroy the US. On a personal note, I don’t much care if The People’s Democratic Republic of Kalifornia goes it’s own way (or even falls into the Pacific). We can get along just fine without them… except for the pr0n pervs… where would they get their pr0n if Kalifornia ceased to exist?
Urban-coastal our-shit-don’t-stink Elites (and those damnyankees) have been the bane of our existence since, well… pretty much ever. If the Norks blew NYC off the face of the Earth tomorrow, I’d probably hold a barbeque in celebration… or Portland, or Ookland, or Detoilet, or Apelanta, or Chicagostan, or LA or… you get the idea. I think vaporized SJW’s would make good fertilizer if you could condense them down enough… and the radiation were removed…
Laws and history are written by the winners, but that doesn’t make either one of them right.
Billy,
By the way, thanks for the complement on SLL.
One final note, I promise. I use TBP stuff on my site. Feel free to use my articles on SLL on TBP, with the usual conditions.
There are more geniuses born in the Middle Class than Elite. The following list are men born poor and who had little primary/cultural education: Ben Franklin, Sam Clemens, Andrew Jackson, NB Forrest, Michael Faraday, Gregor Mendel, JD Rockefeller, Abraham Lincoln, Albert Einstein, Henry Ford, William Shakespeare.
@ Robert,
Laws and history are written by the winners, but that doesn’t make either one of them right.
I put it this way to my son…
“There’s what’s Right, there’s what’s Legal and then there’s what’s Just.
And never the three shall meet.”
Oh, you might get two of them to Marvel Mash-up now and again… but all three? Heh… good one.
@Robert Gore….Well that proves how brain dead I am. I’ve been reading your SLL site for awhile, and like Billy, I found it through WRSA. I’ll be damned. I never made the connection with your name.
“Busy, busy, busy, is what we Bokononists whisper whenever we think of how complicated and unpredictable the machinery of life really is.” ……Cat’s Cradle
must be nice to be robert gore, he must sleep well with all the answers. your intelligence must make you part of the very special people. i apologize for choosing not to enrich you by calling in sick, , i do hope it is not contagious , otherwise you may have to work to eat. best of luck to the NWO
Billy where is the love ?Listen to me you hillbilly shit stain if I hadn’t poked Rob you would have never known who he was .I’m tired of carrying your ass on this site.I’m tired of taking you to the woodshed every time we have an honest conversation.
Rob ,I don’t get it.Everything was fine until I saw Reason magazine blog ,all the atheistic Jews who claim to be economists and then finally:You’re a non practicing Lawyer .
Are you a subversive parasite or are you a brilliant man who has made something of himself? I’m still setting in Judgment.
Billy , sorry about the shit stain comment. Bad day at work.
The ECM Turning Point 2015.75 – The Start of a Trend is Now
Posted on September 28, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
ECM-Wave-2011-2020
I was in Barcelona and was asked by many did I think the pro-independence parties in Spain’s Catalonia region would actually win. I told them it was inevitable for this is the global trend in motion. The vote for Catalonia is in – the separatists have won an absolute majority in regional elections. It looks as though the separatist alliance and a smaller party won 72 seats in the 135-seat regional parliament. They have declared that this will now allow them to declare independence from Spain unilaterally within 18 months.
The Spanish central government in Madrid has pledged to block any unilateral independence moves in court. Why? Politicians are no different than kings, dictators, or emperors. This is not about what the people want, it is all about maintaining power.
This vote is just the BEGINNING of the separatist movement around the world. Centralized government is dying. Society has always swung back and forth between centralized government and regional government. Once a centralized government grabs power, it will always expand until it consumes all power.
This is why I say that TAXES ARE NO LONGER NECESSARY. Money is no longer a commodity and the value of any currency depends entirely upon faith. Even gold has no value unless you believe someone else will accept it from you at some mutual agreed value. This is also why money cannot be a store of value for it requires ending the business cycle and life itself.
Why do we pay federal taxes? What is it really providing for the people? Taxes are necessary locally where governments cannot create money. Yet where government creates the money no longer tied to anything tangible but really the collective capacity of the nation (GDP), then there is also no need to tax nor is there a need to borrow constantly with no intention of paying anything back. Now we have interest rates at near zero and governments need rates at virtually zero or the cost of government will explode. So it is them against the people always. Retired cannot live off of their savings and pensions are going broke all because government is the biggest debtor and it stupidly assumes it can raise or lower interest rates to steer the economy when they themselves are the biggest debtor upon which their own tools have no influence on fiscal responsibility. We live is a world that has totally gone mad and nobody will sit down and just look at how this structure is functioning.
The separatist movement is the breaking up of federal governments and the return of power back to regional governments. This is being fueled by taxes and the diminishing trend in employment and lowering of the living standards.
The Catalonia vote comes right on target with the Economic Confidence Model. This turning point is PROFOUND, for it is not the crash in stock markets, commodities, or the private sector. This is the BEGINNING of the trend which will see the fall of governments and the rise in demands for political change EVERYWHERE.
ECM2015-2020
November 28th, 2018 will be the major target moving forward for political chaos. On the last two important wave formations, 1998.55 and 2007.15, this Pi turning point produced to the day the 911 attack and the day Greece asked for IMF help starting the sovereign debt crisis. So 2015.75 is the BEGINNING, and not the end of a new trend that will be very profound for our political future.