Guest Post by starfcker
OK doomers, I’m calling in a favor. Ride with me here. My, what a difference a few months can make. As we wind down the Obongo presidency, to paraphrase, our long national nightmare may actually be over. We may finally be able to imagine once again a president who runs the country, for the benefit of the country, the CEO of all Americans, as opposed to a part time speech reader. History will look back at Obongo, and if they can find him, wonder what the hell we were thinking. We truly were a captured country, complicit in our own self destruction. 7 years is a long time to beat a dead horse.
Many young adults have never known anything else. The great sales job of globalization, a first world consumer society in every country, hit the rocks in the fall of 2008. It has continued on, a dogmatic zombie, through the injection of about a trillion dollars a year in counterfeit money. This unsustainable path of Americanizing the world should have died a natural death in 2008. Instead we wasted the better part of a decade expecting that somehow, someway, the pipe dream that was being sold to us would somehow work.
In the information age, we would accumulate our wealth not through hard work and effort, but by endlessly manipulating a set of digital numbers, that would automatically rise with time if we took good care of them. We would never age, but retire young, and engage in all the recreational activities we missed as kids. 50 was the new 30, only much better funded. All we had to do was open a Schwab account. Our 401k’s were the ticket to a better tomorrow, we weren’t savers anymore, we were investors. Savers were so foolish, so unhip, so not going on our Mount Everest expedition next year.
Well, about all that. it never was real. It never was going to work. behind all those dividends and interest payments needed to be massive amounts of business activity. Investors? Real investors are businessmen, not paper pushers. Businessman earn a living by investing their money and their talents in order to create a return. Without businessman, there are no returns on which to base an economy,, and no returns for capital. Good business has always focused on production. The core businesses of farming / extraction / manufacturing. Hard to tell that to Silicon Valley, the digital economy has had a life of it’s own.
More money has been made from the digital revolution than I can count, that’s for sure. But it hasn’t trickled down in the way it should. A lot of that money is stashed overseas, it’s a highly centralized industry, anyway. Profit levels are so high for the bigs, they just gobble up everything with any potential. So I do exclude that. All that being said, the most exciting project in my lifetime looks to be barreling down the pipe at us, the rebuilding of America. The industrial base, the farming base, the mining base, the infrastructure, the national psyche, everything. I believe this will be the boom of booms, and if it lasts 20 years, I will be in a rocking chair by that point.
The only people that I see that aren’t excited about this, are the people who hold on to some perfect world, as they see it. Nothing else would be good enough for them. If it’s not exactly the way they imagine it, down to the last detail, what’s the point? We’re screwed, game over. It’s always darkest before the dawn. Time to let the past go. The dreams you had 10 years ago may not ever happen, but that doesn’t mean lots and lots of other good things couldn’t, if you gave them a chance. There hasn’t been any way looking forward to see the positive in a long time, for a lot of people.
There’s a bright, bright light on the horizon right now. America is about to undergo a profound change. Lots of people who thought they are going to have a leisurely retirement living the life of a prince while their paper created massive cash for them are going to be really disappointed. Those willing to work, to invest both time and money in real business, could once again live the American dream. The biggest stumbling block to small business is established business. if your competition already has their million-dollar plant paid for, you are at a disadvantage. Well the competition has been smashed in the United States.
If we make the economy about America, which looks like it’s going to happen, the playing field has been leveled in many, many industries. Will the bigs come back? Of course they will, but they’re still going to have to invest and train workforce and have cost again. And big is never as nimble as small and lean. I’m not in the advice business, but I have some advice this time, come up with a new dream based on the realities that lie just ahead. Dare to dream big, dare to dream great. This might be the opportunity of your lifetime. Sitting home bitching ain’t going to cut it. Lots of people will choose that option . That’s just less competition for you.
You don’t have to believe me, a year out from the election. It seems kind of remote, and maybe not possible. But as we get closer, pay attention. because I bet I’m right. Everything I’m involved in, I’m ramping up, as we speak. I’m going to be ready. If I’m wrong, I will just downsize back to right size, but if I’m right, forget it. The fast are going to eat the slow. Ever what a traditional company top dog really does? Not a Mitt Romney vulture capitalist, but a man who’s interested in growing his business, what does he do all day?
Some of the skills are evident , managing people is huge, evaluating talent and putting it in the right space probably the biggest thing. But after that, I think being able to see around the corner a little bit is the most underrated skill. Being able to take the same input as everyone else , and come up with a better idea of what’s coming down the pike. And then taking the steps to be ready. Things might seem hopeless, the debt might seem staggering, I’ll address that stuff next time. But dare to find a ray of light. Be ready to work hard. Change is coming.
This is my vision of how things ought to play out, not that they will-
Too much emphasis over the past hundred years has been placed on economics rather than on the quality of life. While a decent income can provide for a better life there doesn’t appear to be any correlation between the two. Money doesn’t buy happiness and poverty- at least in the American sense- isn’t about having nothing, but about not having a reason for living. People in prison get three meals a day and roof over their head as well as medical and dental care, but that doesn’t equate to a life worth living.
We have to prioritize our values- hard to do when our system of values has been reshuffled and eroded, but not impossible. People don’t need more anti-anxiety meds, they need less anxiety. They don’t require more food, but better nourishment.
I’ll try and add more, but my children are calling.
Aaaaand ….. the best Reagan Impression of the year goes to starfcker!!
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“As we wind down the Obongo presidency, to paraphrase, our long national nightmare may actually be over.”
No. The nightmare is just beginning.
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” ….. the most exciting project in my lifetime looks to be barreling down the pipe at us, the rebuilding of America. The industrial base, the farming base, the mining base, the infrastructure, the national psyche, everything. I believe this will be the boom of booms,” ———- from the article
Sing along with me ..
Star is a good man, an optimist who loves his country. Stuck is a realist who sees some real shit coming. To bad for us, Stuck is right.America is like the girl wit tats, ruined beyond repair.
I think that the gist of what the author is saying is true – however things will remain stagnant and continue to spiral downwards for awhile yet until the 4th turning runs its course and the old guard is no longer suffering from its current state of cranial – rectal Inversion and rampant hubris.
Business will need to start training people rather than just steal the productive members of other business’s (and there is damn few of us left that are actually productive and not just “paper pushers” or completely clueless imbiciles).
At some point in the future, business’s both large and small will have no choice but to actually return to models of yore – think or IBM’s training programs in the 50’s and other “apprenticeship” type training programs going back many more years before that.
But, things must run their course first – then, and only then will the future again be bright.
starfcker
Are you sure the Obama administration is going to wind down?
Love the optimism–unfortunately the UN 2030 plan will never allow it. The greenies will curtail any new attempts at manufacturing and industry. If the greenies don’t get you, the 400 million pages of regulations and thousands of government agencies will.
Nope, we live in the controlled matrix now.
I used to be more in the camp of Stuck’s abandon all hope camp of doom, but the longer I follow the culture war being successfully waged against the SJW,s by White Christian traditionalists the brighter my spark of hope glows…..but as Starfcker accurately states , in the event of TEOTWAWKI , the odds of physically and economically surviving will increase exponentially according to ones training…get some..
i saw this recently and have not watched it all , due to bandwidth issues, but it sounds very interesting and I will look more into in the future.
Why starfcker thinks that the trend of the next administration is going to be any different than the last few (i.e. always getting worse) is beyond me. To me the current front runners for president are like a very bad joke: A lesbian, a commie, a kneegrow, and an asshole walk into a bar…
Civilization is cyclical and eventually things will get better, but I seriously doubt it’s going to happen in my lifetime.
My dear Starfcker , like your outlook but I’m afraid Ron Paul was right when he said we would now have currency collapses and unending war .I would add civil strife , riots and destruction of many cities .
Yeah! This is my idea of what “hope and change” should be all about!
Note to pessimists: I live in Argentina, a country written off by nearly everyone as the next Venezuela except that if today’s polls have it right, happily IT AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN! That’s right, the O-style socialism on steroids that we’ve suffered for years now seems to be on the verge of being shown the door! Caveat: I’m not a believer in cycle-theory and with any luck, Argentina will provide a preview of what the USA could do if people WAKE UP! Will USAers wake up? Can’t say, kind of doubt it, but I certainly hope so! Yes, it’ll take a generation to get back on track, but it could be done, or so I’d like to believe. Granted, I’ve been gone for a long time and if I were to take as typical of US society some of the horrors I see here (the tat girl, people of Wal-Mart, the 30 blocks, etc.) as examples that can be extrapolated to the society as a whole, then I guess being optimistic is kind of like being on glue, but…
I keep in mind one of Chairman Mao’s pithier sayings: “It’s always darker just before it goes completely black”, but then again, Mao’s dead and so is his insane vision of what makes a workable society, so…
Take heart, gringos! You ain’t dead yet and there’s still a way out of the mess of the recent past. Reagan wasn’t perfect by any means, but he was the best damn prez of the past half century and his message beats the beejeezus out of anything coming out of the UN or the globalist lackeys and their tired, silly and unworkable nonsense. Don’t resign yourself to doom. Yeah, sure, prepare for it just in case, but never forget that “just in case” ISN’T inevitable!
This is a setup piece of sorts. Next time, we’re going to do some maff, and I’ll try to lay out why I’m not feeling the doom
starfcker
maff ain’t your strong point. If it were, you wouldn’t be so optimistic.
Maybe you will be using liberal maff. 2 + 2 = 1,000,000
I think it’s going to get worse and worse. The government is at least twice as big as it should be, and we keep growing the beast. Look at the IRS and federal tax law – all 73,000 pages. Obviously it could be simplified (whether Republican or Democrat). But nothing is done. The ACA is 2,200 pages. The lies and corruption will continue until the ‘system’ collapses.
the value of truth and honesty. for some of us that was the cornerstones of contracts. i honored every contract i ever made, yet the inverse became the exception. so easy to extract the rewards of a deal simply to walk away if it benefits one party. the rule of law appears to favor those who abuse a contract. this has bred a distrust, even marriage vows become simple means to end for some. pt barum said it well, sucker born every minute. he was rewarded by being a con man and scoffed at those who never guessed someone could be so conniving. funny i was listening to a fun guy discussing how our greatest exports are newspaper, scrap metal and air in empty containers returning to china. obama has much in common with other celebrated con men.
“Next time, we’re going to do some maff, and I’ll try to lay out why I’m not feeling the doom”
———————-starfcker
Please try not to use your Democrap maf. mmmkay?
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Linear, yet optimistic, thinking.
What if all you think you “know,” you think is “historical fact,” is truly nothing but lies put in place to control us and continue the ever-growing power of the Illuminati?
And it goes back to Ancient Sumeria?
Then what would you think?
We CANNOT fix a system that is broken on ALL levels by putting a new CEO in charge of it. It NEVER works out, NEVER. Yet boy do we believe/hope that it will. Star, you remind me of the Obama supporters in 2007, “everything will be alright if only MY guy wins!” “Hope and Change” can’t you see you are now saying the EXACT same thing?
Obama isn’t our true enemy, but as a black man in a country of afraid, brainwashed, majority, it sure seems that way.
And we CANNOT continue to think looking our for #1, allowing a handful to steal 90% of the wealth, will EVER work out for the future of our planet or species.
Anyone that leads this charge with the self-centered bull of “American First” is DOOMED to follow the path of the Dark Ones that have been using us and killing us and harming us for millennia.
Think outside your self and open your eyes to the truth. All you think you know has been planted there to enable the REAL dark overlords to use you to harm the entirety of the world.
But, I do love your optimism, even if your plan has been done before and we can see the spectacular results and horrific failures EVERYWHERE.
There are world’s other than these. Bank on that. There is real hope, but it doesn’t lie in changing the sheets on the bedbug ridden bed, nor rearranging the deck chairs on the Olympic/Titanic.
Jim, maff is my strong point. I tell people all the time, run the numbers, and most of the time, there’s your decision. I arrived at TBP just as cynical and disillusioned as the next guy. I have no intention of being the rainbow unicorn standard bearer. But I see what I see, so I’ll lay it out, and we’ll see what happens. For my life to work financially, I have to be right most of the time. A good number of people count on that. Time will tell.
Running the numbers for a business or a household are a piece of cake. I’ve done it my whole life. Logic and realism rule the day.
Running the numbers for the United States of America is impossible. When the system is corrupt, broken, inept, and racked with $200 trillion of unfunded liabilities, it is unfixable. Anyone who says they can fix it without collapsing the Ponzi scheme is blowing smoke up our asses.
Star- Does this dream include kneegrows “working hard” as you put it?
I have been working hard in the reality of the business world all morning, several times a day as I endeavor to keep my sanity, I remember that for every one producer like me there are 10 leeches sitting on the sofa at home watching Judge Judy.
Good luck with your new version of “Dear Leader”, same as the old version and nothing will change. I will still be busting rocks while they sit on the front porch and drink kool-aid.
@starfcker good post . I often ponder what the future will hold. I’m aware that we cannot KNOW
the future . But some math skills lead me to believe, that absent a brand new energy source, that is at least as equivalent to energy density like oil, we are fucked!
I manage a crew of ruffly 40 people , I develop and place talented people to new jobs and responsibility . I think so far outside the box that I’m constantly asked to go to meetings and teach other GM’s how to THINK. But it is largely useless , barring a brand new energy source , it will wind down in a spectacularly violent fashion. I hope I am wrong. But the fundamental equation is energy ,and I give current extraction rates about 50 years . Not enough uranium , not enough recovery rate of oil, not possible atm to produce enough solar panels not enough phosphorous etc etc etc . At least for 7 billion plus. Makes me wonder about agenda 21 and agenda 2030 and codex alimentarius .
But I have to have hope . Will life survive? Yes . The current cycle that humans are in, will end, and I know not what will continue. ACK, get away from me SSS ,I did the best I could on writing this ))lol dotted my t’s and crossed my I’s lol whatever
Did yall know that 1000 lobbyists designed the clown car?
Thats right. Everything on it falls apart, tires burst, clowns fall off, another climbs aboard and the only thing that doesnt break is the engine.
¿¿¿¿¿¿
As we wind down the Obongo presidency, to paraphrase, our long national nightmare may actually be over. ~strfkr
That was Sarcasm, Right?
Right?
“I manage a crew of ruffly 40 people …” ———– gm
They sound like a bunch of ruffians.
Running the numbers for a business and making the decisions for a business are two different things. Pass-fail, and many fail. I’m not talking about solving every problem. It’s easy to poke holes and say, well you didn’t solve THIS to my liking. Eh, so what. I’m just looking at big picture stuff, and it’s remarkably simple.
starfcker
Fuck you. I was responsible for $1 billion of expenditures for IKEA that took place over 18 months. If my sales projections for 9 stores we built were wrong, the US operation could have gone bankrupt. Don’t act like you’re some kind of mathematical genius who has the answers. You don’t.
You’re remarkably simple. And remarkably naive.
wow TE ancient sumeria ,if people only read the history that is available to them , I do believe the world would be a different and better place . I think there is a shitload of history that is not available to the general public . Start with whatever you know and keep going backwards in time , there are some very strange anomalies in the recorded history .
I do not feel the doom ,as starfcker said, We live , We die , lets hope we have some fun in between those 2 timepoints .
lol stucky I’m very selective on who works for me at my unnamed restaurant due to fucking security crap . Its a family type atmosphere . Well maybe not family type as I do not allow crew or management drama of any kind . First rule to work for me … Family is first, 2nd rule is You must have fun , 3rd rule.. see rule number one . 4th rule .. see rule number 2 .
I pay over 10k a week in labor costs and its worth every friggen dime .And I am blessed with the best people I have ever associated with in my entire career . lol my god I just re read what you wrote sir , nice play on words))) im an idiot lol
Simple I would agree with. Naive, not so much. Love to have this argument today, but I want to save it for the next one. Mathematical genius? Trust me, I’ll never make that claim. But my fundamentals are strong, and I’m a very good analyst. Even a dumbass with an opinion can be right on occasion. This might be one of those occasions. We’ll see.
I love your optimism star and I hope you’re right. However I think it will be some time before what you describe pans out. I believe the current system has far too much momentum behind it. There are too many interests that are entrenched in perpetuating the status quot. There are too many bought votes via welfare, massive bureaucracies, and other government spending. In order to justify their jobs, they create regulations and new taxes that strangle the incentives for the producers you speak of.
They will do whatever they can to protect themselves and their piece of the pie. That’s why I don’t believe we will be able to materially change anything until we can’t kick the can down the road any longer. Only when tough decisions must be made will we face the music. I’m not complaining, I just think that’s where were at.
I’m hoping to escape the more volatile aspects of that. I started thinking about what Montefrio said and I’m planning on going to Guatemala for a couple months to learn Spanish. That would open up a lot of the world and I could travel around and see which countries have the best residency and business environments. Many countries down south have pretty resilient, rapidly growing economies. At the very least, they’d probably mostly stay out of a thermonuclear war. I know lots of investors have written about bugging out to rural farmland in Chile.
To clarify, I’m not an optimist. I’m putting together pieces of information and then not fighting with the result. It is what it is
Guy: Go for it. And here’s a bit of Spanish vis-a-vis Guatemala: “Desde Guatemala a Guatapeor”.
Kidding aside, just make sure it’s Spanish and not Mam that you learn! Tip two: Chile has been over-promoted. Want to check out some interesting agricultural and rural properties in a friendly environment that’ll be a lot less expensive? Try the Ancash region of Perú. Granted, it’s got lots of Quechua-speakers, but it’s worth a look-see if you can meet legal residency requirements. Pretty mild climate, gorgeous place, nice folks, growing economy… Not for everyone,but if you’re adventurous, you’ll enjoy the place even if you decide it’s not for you. The Tacna region near the border with Chile is also interesting and has promise, but beware of the coast: earthquake and tsunami country!
Starfcker, what is it you do for a living?
Tommy, I make stuff, and I grow stuff
Nope, it is all fucked up and tits up.
Two many leaches and too many rules laid down by the overlords.
On top of that the average person is getting dumber and dumber and the percentage of the trully dumb are growing larger as well.
Additionally people lack the need to be self sufficient, but that just gets us back to the “too many leaches” point.
On, and most of the immigration is not from countries known for intelligence and advanced civilization.
@starfcker: The US can’t make good on all the unfuncded pensions, union contracts, entitlements. It’s gonna go to shit!
I wish starfcker was right. But I’ve always been a numbers guy like Admin.
The numbers say that close to a majority of the US population is part of the Free Shit Army (FSA) that is continuously leeching off society’s teat. And if you include government ‘workers’, who by and large create no value of any kind, the FSA and its apologists are probably far beyond a majority.
I don’t believe for a minute that it is possible to get rid of the FSA and government leeches without a profound economic collapse. On the contrary, the government leeches do everything possible to increase the membership of the FSA – e.g., unchecked illegal immigration, admission of Muslim refugees, etc. etc. etc., despite the fact that the country is arguably bankrupt.
The unpleasant reality is that the system will never permit anyone to voluntarily hit the reset button. So after the Obungler is gone, he will be replaced by something far worse, such as the Hildebeest.
Prudent people will have plans in place to deal with an economic collapse. The best advice I can give anyone is to figure out how to go rural. Rural life ain’t exactly exciting, but it offers a far better prospect of survival. Those who stay in the cities and suburbs will ultimately face internment camps, starvation, and death. Think of New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 as the test run for what’s coming.
Dutch, promises, promises. So what? I argue above, those people are going to get their feelings hurt, and gonna have to work. I agree, that is going to go to shit. Oh well. Vegas, FSA ain’t anywhere close to 50/50. This election is going to be a landslide. Don’t buy the spin.
Nice try, Starfckr, but as I recall TARP happened during “W”‘s reign, along with the Afghan/Iraq wars. Oblunder followed his lead, which was a huge fucking mistake. Had Oblunder actually carried out any positive “Hope & Change” we would be living in a different country right about the now, but it didn’t happen. Why? Because as I tirelessly need to keep repeating to this bunch, Cheney is still running the show, probably from Raven Rock “Site R”. He and the neocons still make the decisions, not Oblunder, and not whomever else is our next poster boy.
Why don’t Neegrows go to psychiatrists? The last one who said “I had a dream” got shot.
Westy, how do you keep thinking I care about the political parties? Only neo-con I like is quinn, and he’s only been a neo-con for two weeks, since rush adopted him
A dying dog represents a tremendous opportunity to a tick.
We are so far over the tips of our skis on this whole entire mess – the days of get ready, its coming back – are over. 4th Turnings are not hospitable to capitalistic enthusiasms in a manner of breadth and depth to matter to most. But, I hope your plan works out!
I doubt your math equations can ever balance and your logic is pure Polly Anna Folly. Democrats own our demographics and the first woman POTUS is a Crown Princess who would not be prosecuted if video cameras proved she murdered someone. I assume you think Trump will win but I remember JFK, MLK Jr, Bobby K, George Wallace, Larry McDonald, Omar Torrijos, Daniel Ortega, Vince Foster, Ron Brown, Marilyn Monroe, the Waco congregation, etc. Vote Fraud is as bad here as anywhere in the world; Trump is not TPTB’s favorite son; he cannot win. Then there is the 3-legged global economy that is going to die and not revive for decades and certainly not in this Elite PTB Illuminati Federal Reserve controlled Socialist Oligarchy which is going to have a planned Communist Revolution that goes totally wrong and the UN, the BRICS et all are not going to let that crisis go to waste. TPTB want war and they get and they want; Martial Law, emoney and an enslaved ex-American Goy. Then there is God Almighty who is ready to throw the switch on this now Godless USA (Yellowstone, New Madrid, San Andreas, Cascadia, drought, flood, war, famine and plague).
Star – I applaud your optimism. Truly.
But it is never going to happen. There will be no boom before the almighty crash. Those reliant on pensions and welfare and votes will hang on until the bitter end. After the bitter end, it will take a couple of decades to slowly rise up out of the rubble. THEN there might be a boom.
A boom requires capital. And when the nation is $200 trillion in debt, there is no true capital available.
A boom requires that circumstances exist that businesses can spring up unhindered. Those circumstances do not exist – it is almost impossibly hard to start a small business. Vastly more businesses are folding than opening. To have a boom would require a reversal. There is nothing on the horizon that will reverse the current trend.
A boom requires a skilled, educated, hard-working populous. That for sure and certain does not exist.
A boom requires a young, not rapidly ageing, population. That does not exist. It requires a nation of common aspiration, and that sure as hell does not exist. It requires sound, not crumbling, infrastructure.
A boom requires positive, independent, altruistic leadership, and that is nowhere to be seen.
I am sorry, my friend, but there will be no boom until the bust sweeps through, and people once again come to understand the need for values – education, thrift, hard-work, family, personal responsibility.
And those values are nowhere to be seen in the community in general. You will not live to see a twenty year boom. I am sorry for the plight of the young, but there it is.
Llpoh, we have always diverged a little on economic issues, I usually choose to stay out of certain things with you, you have a few more years, and run a larger operation, I have to respect that, and I do. But this is different. Wait for part 2, this was a setup, and we will see what you think
Many good points by the math folks and others who see the mess the USA had become, but I can only reiterate that Argentina hasn’t been destroyed or collapsed despite worse conditions all round and many predictions that it would, all of them based on sound math and skilled social observation. It may happen yet, of course, because sheer certainty on anything is rare. I thin of Prechter, a math guy if ever there was one and a skilled one at that. I think of Karl D with his “here it comes” but it hasn’t come yet and it’s been quite a while now. Then there was Gary North and Y2K and Hans-Herman Hoppe declaring that Argentina was on its way out and FerFal’s dire predictions for the country and it’s still going and with luck will have a new gov chosen by an electorate that has grown tired of failed promises and a very HRC-like prez who sems to have lost the trust and confidence of those who elected her by a large (53%) majority four years ago.
Maybe the pessimism is justified, maybe not, but if not and the US goes blooey, well then I guess Argentina may not have been a bad bet after all. I was optimistic 11 years ago and just maybe my optimism and patience are about to be rewarded.
Star – I too aplaud your optimism and your balls or posting what you had to know would be an unpopular premise. I am even mildly interested to see you alleged math that somehow varies from all the other math clearly showing that we are headed for major collapse and near-certain war. Still, I don’t believe there is any math or any technology that can possibly protect us from ourselves. HSF nailed it the very first respone–we as a society and culture, he’ll as a species, have abandoned things hat truly matter and made the economy our deity. I think your post is 8-10 years early. That brand of optimism will be both hard to find and greatly needed after the coming turmoil, suffering and despair.
Monte – don’t believe in cycle theory? Really? Cycles are the only thing that remotely makes sense of human history. From the dawn of civilization empires have risen aND the collapsed and always along the same path and for the same failings of human nature. Also, one cannot compare Argentina to the US. The culture there is very homogenous, very family oriented and very used to hardship…the US fails massively in all three aspects.
And yes, I have been there…but more, my wife grew up in Mendoza…it is truly beautiful country.
The Coming Age of Austerity,
There’s some of the math.
Drud: I don’t really believe in any “theory of history” for the simple reason that they are theories not proven fact. Cycles have their appeal as an explanation for what to me will always remain inexplicable. I guess you’d call me a believe in “randomness theory” if such a theory exists.
Very good points with respect to Argentina, although I believe some comparisons have a degree of validity with respect to the idea of “inevitable” total collapses that just don’t happen. You’re entirely right about the characteristics you named, save that the homogeneity isn’t so strong between urban and rural. Family values are very high and yes indeed, folks are used to hardship and have learned to take it in stride and adapt! That’s one of the things among many that I really like about the place! I have high hopes for the country if Macri is elected and the appropriate economic measures are taken. Mrs. K foolishly tried comparing Argentina with Canada and Australia in terms of prosperity, but the potential is there for the future if cards are correctly played this time around. Come spend more time here and saludos a su señora mendocina!
Well, obviously Cycle Theory or any other sociological isn’t hard science–it can’t be. There is a tremendous amount of randomness (or chaos) to any societal system. However, I think it is very clear that times of maximum turmoil appear in fairly regular intervals for individual societies. The Fourth Turning model is by far the best model of I have seen of this. Generational moods drive birth rates, birth rates drive economies, growth leads to booms, booms lead to busts. It is clearly not entirely predictive (again societies are VERY chaotic systems) but it does tie up a lot of loose ends in hindsight.
I would love to visit Argentina again soon. The food, the wine, the land, the mountains and (for the most part) the people are all lovely.