Cut and paste from Canadian Gerold:
http://geroldblog.com/2016/01/10/no-trade-no-commerce-no-economy/
Gerold’s Blog is worth a visit, especially the 24 pieces on Nuclear Disaster Japan.
“An observant reader (H/t: Ken J.) sent me a link to an article titled, Historic First: North Atlantic EMPTY of Cargo Ships in-transit – ALL anchored along coasts; none moving
It takes a lot to make me snort coffee through my nose!
You see, I’m a life-long Logistics specialist. Given that and a background in finance, etc., I understand the critical importance that commerce and trade play in national and global economies. Any economy, whether it’s local, national or global, relies on trade and commerce the way bodies rely on various circulations of food, material and waste for the sustenance of life. It’s a rough analogy, but you get the point.
Coincidentally, I happen to be preparing a couple of articles for future publication that look at the connections and correlations between the northern European tribes stopping Roman expansion and the eventual collapse of Rome, not by barbarians, but by Muslim pirates who turned the Mediterranean Sea, the world’s largest trade and commercial system into a battleground which destroyed Rome’s economy and plunged Europe into the Dark Ages. No trade = no commerce = no economy.
Immersed in this eye-opening research, Ken J.’s link to that news article arrived with an explosion! There has never NOT been trade in the North Atlantic.
I had to verify this before sounding an alert. I found several other articles all citing the one above. The clinch was these two vessel-finder sites. Even on Sunday, January 10, 2016, the only vessels in the North Atlantic were at anchor including at the Azores mid-Atlantic. Click on the sites below.
The article goes on to say, “This has never happened before. It is a horrific economic sign; proof that commerce is literally stopped.
“The reason commerce has stopped is simple: People are not buying things. When people do not buy things, retailers do not sell things, so they do not order more goods for stock.
“When retailers do not order goods, manufacturers don’t make anything because there are no orders to fill. When manufacturers do not make goods, they don’t order raw materials for manufacturing.
“When there are no orders for raw materials, commodities sellers do not sell raw materials. When no raw materials are sold, there is no shipping by large cargo ships, (or railroads or tractor trailers) to move anything.
“Put simply, the global economy is LITERALLY stopping. Right now. Today.
“How things go from this point forward is simple: Without sales, retailers are not even “turning dollars” so they will have to layoff employees and close stores. Without orders, manufacturers will have to layoff employees and shut down. When manufacturing shuts down, suppliers of commodities will have to layoff employees and cease operations. As all of this economic activity comes to a halt, then the disaster REALLY takes off:
“When businesses are not even “turning dollars” they cannot pay back their loans. Retailers, manufacturers and commodities suppliers will begin defaulting on bank loans within 30 days. When enough of them default, it begins taking-out banks. As banks begin to fail, others will run to their banks to withdraw money for fear THEIR bank will fail too; and therein starts “bank runs.”
“We are literally standing at the edge of an abyss. It appears we are about to go over that cliff . . .”
This slow-down in trade and commerce is no surprise because Friday it was reported that the Baltic Dry Index of shipping rates (a leading economic indicator) had plunged “20% lower than the previous record low in 1986.”
BDI
Chart: Zero Hedge
Dry-bulk carriers’ bankruptcies will continue as we circle closer to the drain of economic collapse. Stay tuned: 2016 will be an eye-opening year.
Remember the mantra:
We cannot borrow our way out of debt.
We cannot spend our way to prosperity.
We cannot pretend our way out of trouble.”
Gerold
January 10, 2016
But Paul krugman assured me that the best way to fix our debt addled economy is with more debt. I’m so confused….
The Fourth Turning is just about to go ballz in.
Ammo, food, water treatment tablets, lots of fishing line, silver coins for trading…
Krugman will convince O;Dumbo to print and inject Trillions of $$$$ into the pockets of Banksters and major Corporations due to an alien invasion from outer space.
It may be the end of kicking the can down the road economically for the reasons cited above, but this is when the can-kicking ramps up in earnest by the desperate central bankers of the world.
I’ve noticed some “truthiness” and “adjustments” to the data supplied by the BLS in the most recent release of economy data points and it made me wonder if 2016 is going to be used by the Obamabots to ‘clean up’ their lies of the past few years. A worldwide economic downturn – the very thing gov’t figures lie about – will be the perfect cover for them to skedaddle out of town with barely a shrug of the shoulders.
In other words, the vast majority of Americans are about to be blindsided by quite possibly the worst economic depression in history accompanied by the largest bout of hyperinflation in history, mostly because their government lied repeatedly to them about the economic state of affairs.
This information that trade is at a standstill is chilling. Anyone with the means to do so should be stocking up on everything possible now as prices will likely never be as low again.
If we produced everything we consumed and traded our excess production to other countries only for things we can not produce -our trade payments being the things they cannot produce but need- there would be no problem.
In our early days it would be things like our cotton and tobacco for things like their tea and chocolate, today it may be more like their rhodium for our agricultural products.
If this was the way trade was conducted by all nations, everyone would benefit: All would have both employed people and everything they need as well.
Though there is an indisputable slow down in global commerce, your article is based on faulty information. The vessel tracking systems that you are referencing collects vessel positions from Shore based facilities. They only provide information near coastal receivers. For a fee you can upgrade to satellite tracking which will provide you with All Ocean Coverage. Rest assured there are many vessels intransit across all major shipping lanes at any givin time.
Tug,
I suspect you are right since there are no ships in the Pacific either. Still from everything I have read and seen there is a significant slow down in shipping. Much of the drop in pricing is due to increased capacity exacerbated by global slowdown ie South Korea’s exports dropped by 12.8% last month, very, very bad. I suspect we are in a death spiral of sorts. Hopefully a slow one, but as Hemingway is quoted saying, “How did you go bankrupt?”Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” This is probably how it will roll out.
Bob.
No,
this is all lies.
the problem is, global warming.
the retailers can’t sell warm coats, because the winter is to warm for coats.
the home fuel oil tankers are not moving, because it is too hot to heat the houses.
and,
these vessel tracking sites are too dangerous for a prospering oligarchy, some terrorist may find these boats, so lets stop the tracking data from being displayed, you know, to save democracy.
there, all fixed, no need to worry.
“This information that trade is at a standstill is chilling. Anyone with the means to do so should be stocking up on everything possible now as prices will likely never be as low again.”
I’m with Mike in ga…..
better to have and not need than to need and not have.
All the important data has been out there, and unfolding,
but very few want to pay attention.
off topic but still relevant, I notice a huge uptick in numbers of folks moving here to Oregon, we have clean hydro power, dairy farms on the coast, fish in the Columbia River, Wheat and cattle in Eastern Oregon, Fruit orchards in The Dalles, plenty of clean water and trees for firewood and hunting cover for deer, lots of people in town have gardens and chickens, and once outside the Portland metro area, lots of legal gun owners unwilling to tolerate the FSA. It seems others have discovered this as well, huge real estate price jumps and almost no availability of anything resembling affordable housing.
Is there any thought to the container ship owners doing a “Cecil Rhodes ” type of slow down ?
Cecil Rhodes of diamond fame was said to have a store of diamonds in a box. When the box was full,diamond production stopped thus artificially creating a shortage which kept prices up .
Could this be done in the shipping trade;taking ships out of the game thereby increasing shipping charges ?
all husnawk, everywhere says: “off topic but still relevant, I notice a huge uptick in numbers of folks moving here to Oregon,…”
——————————-
I lived in Oregon 30 years ago–it was a wonderful experience and I loved the scenery, but I’d never move back there for these 2 reasons: Fukushima radiation and Chinese pollution, both of which are slowly killing the environment across all the Pacific Northwest.
FYI, I used to love Pacific Dungeness crabs, but they aren’t safe to eat anymore:
“California Fish and Game Commission have revealed to SuperStation95 that the real reason for cancelling this $60 million per year commercial seafood season is: Radiation contamination of seafood from the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan.
According to these workers, who requested anonymity because they fear losing their jobs, radiation levels in local crab, especially Rock crab, were so high that officials feared anyone who consumed the crabs would suffer immediate sickness traceable directly back to the seafood. “If people started connecting the dots proving radiation in seafood was making them sick, it would utterly destroy California’s seafood industry in days” they said.
To cover up the industry-destroying truth, high ranking state political officials instructed the Fish and Wildlife Commission that it would be better to say “some other reason for cancelling the crab season, so as not to panic the public or wreck our industry.” The thinking by the political people was that as long as the public was protected from eating the contaminated food, they didn’t need to know the real reason for it.”
https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/505
“Nothing Is Moving,” Baltic Dry Crashes As Insiders Warn “Commerce Has Come To A Halt”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/11/2016 13:05 -0500
The continued collapse of The Baltic Dry Index remains ignored by most – besides we still have Netflix, right? But, as Dollar Vigilante’s Jeff Berwick details, it appears the worldwide ‘real’ economy has ground to a halt!!
Last week, I received news from a contact who is friends with one of the biggest billionaire shipping families in the world. He told me they had no ships at sea right now, because operating them meant running at a loss.
This weekend, reports are circulating saying much the same thing: The North Atlantic has little or no cargo ships traveling in its waters. Instead, they are anchored. Unmoving. Empty.
You can see one such report here. According to it,
Commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a halt. For the first time in known history, not one cargo ship is in-transit in the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. All of them (hundreds) are either anchored offshore or in-port. NOTHING is moving.
This has never happened before. It is a horrific economic sign; proof that commerce is literally stopped.
We checked VesselFinder.com and it appears to show no ships in transit anywhere in the world. We aren’t experts on shipping, however, so if you have a better site or source to track this apparent phenomenon, please let us know.
Vessel Finder – The Dollar Vigilante
We also checked MarineTraffic.com, and it seemed to show the same thing. Not a ship in transit…
Admin- Every day I see trains a half mile long piggy-backed with shipping containers from China. If the Baltic Dry has crashed again, where have all these containers come from? Perhaps they were held in port for a while after being shipped in to the US. To be fair some of them are are from Europe.
Census webpage of statistics on trade:
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/congressional.html
I know nothing about ships, but I know lots about trucks.
Big truck sales are down 59% year on year.
That means the economy is about to be in the shitter for real. Goods need trucks to move. 60% drop in truck sales? Uh-oh. Look out below. Seriously.
The original article is bullshit. It’s just more investment newsletter-type hype that falls flat when you look at it critically. The shiptracker site he linked does not track all ships at sea-it uses land-based radar that is only good about 40 miles offshore-look it up, the dollar vigilante guy has been getting ripped all over the net wherever this article is posted by folks who know this stuff, like actual shipping industry people. Please note- the original article was supposedly based on a rumor from some mystery man who is not identified, but is supposedly “in the know.” And the original article also stated at one point it was only US-Europe traffic, which was then blown up to include ALL traffic. I looked at the ship tracker site as soon as I read it and I saw ships at sea, so it didn’t seem quite so scary. Hell, an old friend of mine is currently at sea, skippering an oil rig supply ship, so I know at least one ship is out there somewhere. I think this is another example of someone saying something “truthy” we’re all expecting to see, so it fits our worldview, even if there’s no real proof to back it up-meanwhile, someone gets to sell more of their newsletters or other merch’ and we look like clowns a few days later when it all turns out to be hooey.