THE BOOMER RETIREMENT MEME IS A BIG LIE

As the labor participation rate and employment to population ratio linger near three decade lows, the mouthpieces for the establishment continue to perpetuate the Big Lie this is solely due to the retirement of Boomers. It’s their storyline and they’ll stick to it, no matter what the facts show to be the truth. Even CNBC lackeys, government apparatchiks, and Ivy League educated Keynesian economists should be able to admit that people between the ages of 25 and 54 should be working, unless they are home raising children.

In the year 2000, at the height of the first Federal Reserve induced bubble, there were 120 million Americans between the ages of 25 and 54, with 78 million of them employed full-time. That equated to a 65% full-time employment rate. By the height of the second Federal Reserve induced bubble, there were 80 million full-time employed 25 to 54 year olds out of 126 million, a 63.5% employment rate. The full-time employment rate bottomed at 57% in 2010, and still lingers below 62% as we are at the height of a third Federal Reserve induced bubble.

Chart via econimica

Over the last 16 years the percentage of 25 to 54 full-time employed Americans has fallen from 65% to 62%. I guess people are retiring much younger, if you believe the MSM storyline. Over this same time period the total full-time employment to population ratio has fallen from 53% to 48.8%. The overall labor participation rate peaked in 2000 at 67.1% and stayed steady between 66% and 67% for the next eight years. But this disguised the ongoing decline in the participation rate of men.

In 1970, the labor participation rate of all men was 80%, while the participation rate of women was just below 43%. Then Nixon closed the gold window, setting in motion a further debasing of the currency, unleashing politicians to promise voters goodies without consequences, and giving Wall Street bankers and Madison Avenue free rein to use propaganda to bury Americans in debt, while convincing them trinkets and baubles were actually wealth.

The relentless inflation released by Nixon and the Federal Reserve, and perpetuated by Washington D.C. politicians, forced more women into the workforce over the next 30 years, as families could no longer make ends meet with just the husband working. Over the next 30 years the labor participation rate of women soared to 60%, with the expected negative consequences from having tens of millions of children raised by strangers rather than their mothers. The resultant decline in the family unit and kids being brainwashed by government public school indoctrination has left generations of non-critical thinking zombies, easily manipulated by emotional appeals and false storylines.

As women entered the workforce in great numbers, the participation rate of men gradually declined from 80% to 75% by the 2000. It then began a rapid descent and accelerated after the Federal Reserve created 2008 financial disaster. It now stands at 69.3%, just above its record low in 2015. In the 1950’s when 87% of men participated in the labor market, the country’s economy grew strongly, we produced rather than consumed, we saved before we spent, the family unit was strong, and men’s purpose in life was clear.

When over 30% of working age men aren’t participating in the labor force, trouble is brewing. It’s even worse when you consider the 25 to 54 year old male participation rate has declined from 97% in the 1950’s and 1960’s to below 88% today. Much of the anger building in this country is the result of men in their prime earning years seeing their jobs shipped overseas, outsourced, or taken by HB1 workers. The backlash against illegal immigrants is understandable.

Then there are the young men aged 16 to 24, who have seen their participation rate fall from over 70% in the early 1990’s to below 51% today. The 70% participation rate was consistent from the mid 1970’s through 2000. The precipitous decline is not due to mass enrollment in college, as college students worked when I was their age. There is nothing more volatile than millions of unemployed young men, an imploding economy, growing wealth inequality, and porous borders allowing millions of illegals to invade the country, taking jobs and straining the already bankrupt social welfare net.

The facts obliterate the false storyline of Boomers retiring as the primary cause for the labor participation rate plummeting to three decade low levels. In fact, the number of full-time workers over the age of 55 numbered only 11 million in 2000, representing 18.6% of the over 55 population. Today, over 21 million full-time employed over 55 year olds, represent close to 25% of the rapidly growing over 55 year old category.

Chart via econimica

The overall labor force participation rate of the over 55 population, which had lingered in the 30% range from the mid 1980’s until the mid 1990’s, now stands just above 40% at levels last seen in the early 1960’s. The Boomer retirement meme, peddled by the corporate media, is pure propaganda designed to obscure the fact millions of people, especially men, in their prime working years are not working. The fact is there are 253 million working age Americans and 102 million of them are not working.

Chart via econimica

Of the 151 million working Americans, only 123 million are employed full-time (now 35 hours, then 40 hours), 10 million are self-employed, 7 million work multiple jobs, and 21 million produce nothing as they work for the government. The strong and growing job market mantra being sold to the American people is a complete falsehood, and average Americans know it.

We know 10,000 Americans per day are turning 65 and will be for decades to come. Some of them are retiring as they had planned for the last 40 years to do. The fact is very few planned. They were sucked into the easy debt vortex sold by the establishment and lived in the present, never planning for the future. When 50% of all households over the age of 55 have $12,000 or less in retirement savings, they aren’t retiring. When even the over 55 households that did save only have $100,000 of retirement savings, they aren’t retiring. That will last them a couple years at most, when their life expectancy is 20 to 30 years. Very few households can survive on their Social Security pittance, as Yellen and her band of merry men provide 0.25% returns on savings and the cost of food, rent and healthcare surge ever higher.

Boomers aren’t retiring en mass because they can’t afford to retire. The labor participation rate of the younger generations is being negatively impacted by the non-retirement of Boomers. This is called the trickle down effect from unintended consequences. The establishment has strip mined the wealth of the country, leaving a barren wasteland in its wake, creating a seething populace, seeking perpetrators to blame. The populist uprising which propels Trump and Sanders has been spurred by the destruction of the working middle class as the corporate fascists, global elite, and banking cabal have pushed their game of financialization roulette to its limit.

The corporate mainstream media machine, whose job is to keep the establishment in power, scorns Trump when he references a true unemployment rate above 20%, while the BLS reports a beyond laughable rate of 5%. In fact, 24% of all Americans between the ages of 20 and 54 are not working. In fact, 18% of all American men between the ages of 20 and 54 are not working. What are these 13 million men doing on a daily basis? They aren’t retired. A large percentage have been screwed over by a system designed to enrich the few at the expense of the many. Of the 35 million 20 to 54 year old Americans not working, many have found they can suckle more from the welfare and disability systems than they can by working. This generates animosity between the middle and lower classes, to the delight of the ruling class, as it takes the focus off their never ending criminal activities.

The Big Lie can work for longer than rational people might think, but eventually the revelation of its falsehood leads to revolutionary change. The average person in middle America is waking up to the lies of the establishment. They know the unemployment rate is closer to 20% than 5%. They know their own personal inflation rate is 5% to 10%, and not the reported 1% to 2%. They know the banker bailout, TARP, ZIRP, QE, and trillion dollar budget deficits weren’t designed to benefit Main Street USA. They know the media is in the back pocket of the establishment. They are sick and tired of getting screwed by a system designed by a wealthy elitist class to shake them down at every opportunity. They are starting to get up out of their chairs and yelling:

I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take this anymore!!!

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131 Comments
KaD
KaD
April 4, 2016 8:02 pm

1 out of 3 American households can no longer afford rent, food, and transportation. The biggest rise in expenditures comes from rising housing costs.

Sensetti
Sensetti
April 4, 2016 8:26 pm

Ok I just sent Admin 200 & I post infrequently. You sorry bastards that donate nothing & post here everyday running you fucking heads are an abomination. I realize Admins IQ is about 20 clicks south of mine but u Jew bastards outta give him credit for his work & chip in a few coins! I’m sorry I just can’t drink enough to get as stupid as the average poster here. wow I just deleted a fucking book. Hardscrabble, Stucky, where do u stand.

Sensetti
Sensetti
April 4, 2016 8:31 pm

Maff is hard for this Drunk Redneck but if I sent Admin 800 out of what ever he has, what weight does that afford my voice. Fuck you cheap fuckers. You need to feel the fucking Burn ????????????????????

Sensetti
Sensetti
April 4, 2016 8:43 pm

Dumb bastards talking about baseball. I will destroy you ignorant bastards in a debate why? I don’t give Fuck about Baseball. Like that shit has anything to do with where we are headed. WTF

EL Coyote
EL Coyote
April 4, 2016 8:51 pm

Sensetti says: Ok I just sent Admin 200 & I post infrequently. You sorry bastards that donate nothing & post here everyday running you fucking heads are an abomination.

Urk, I resemble that. Maybe I will send my annual membership dues. Am Legion dues went up from $30 to $40. They say if I pony up 4 bills I’ll be paid up for life.

I’m not suggesting Admin sell dispensations but since TBP has lurkers and regulars, perhaps a membership card would come with alerts or priority access to any of Riser’s pictorials. It’s been difficult now that Playboy has dropped the pictures.

Chris H.
Chris H.
April 4, 2016 9:02 pm

Hi Jim,
I appreciate you read my article and we’re inspired to take it further. However, using the basis of my article and directly lifting my charts without any attribution??? Original at economica.blogspot.com
I think the goal is the same…to offer insight and raise the discourse… But a little acknowledgement would be nice.
Chris

Sensetti
Sensetti
April 4, 2016 9:03 pm

LORD JESUS THE PLATFORM WENT SILENT.! Quinn told me for years the GOP was shit, I told him he was fucked up, but All be Damned the boy was spot on. Fuck Stucky and his cigarette smokin ass, Or Hardscrabble.! HS has never engaged me in a conversation. I grew up in the oil fields & bars of the western U.S. HS is a God Damn comedian. I’d eat that fucker before breakfast while he was writing his bullshit post! HS would not know how to saddle a horse if it ran over his ass. HS fuck you & your maple syrup trees.

Sensetti
Sensetti
April 4, 2016 9:10 pm

Dog you are cool, I’m just sick of people who won’t support Admin. I’m busy as a motherfucker with Trumps Campaign, I drop back in here & Admins down. Fuck you bastards, hit the door! Trump takes care of me I help where I can!

EL Coyote
EL Coyote
April 4, 2016 9:17 pm

Stucky smokes? I was scandalized when Tom S— showed up drunk, at his age – way over 50. At some point fuckers have got to stop the bullshit with smoking and drinking. Only reason to drink is to beautify the wookie your dating. It’s like the old excuse that you didn’t want to offend the lady by wearing a rubber, yet your quite ok letting her know she’s not up to Hillary standards in the looks department.

Sensetti
Sensetti
April 4, 2016 9:17 pm

Coyote I’m drinking Tequila right now! I have no fucking idea what you’re talking about! Other than Who The Fuck That Posts Here is not paying? You Sum Bitches that don’t pay, don’t post!

Sensetti
Sensetti
April 4, 2016 9:22 pm

Dog have you seen my girl friend? She’s smokin fuckin hot! She runs me off every other week! But when you hang a memory in their ass they comin back!

Sensetti
Sensetti
April 4, 2016 9:29 pm

Fuck you Admin, your poison pen is very powerful but that gorgeous blonde you call wife …is extraordinary. Don’t fuck up take care of your health! Which you know you’re not doing! Come on its bigger than you!

EL Coyote
EL Coyote
April 4, 2016 9:40 pm

Glad your having fun. Take care of that woman tamer, they don’t last forever.
Whoever mentioned the theory that you only have a set number of bullets might be right.

Unauthorized
Unauthorized
April 4, 2016 9:46 pm

Glad to see you’re back, Sensetti. Was wondering where you’ve been. Good to see you’re still kickin’

Homer
Homer
April 4, 2016 10:38 pm

Admin–Nothing new here. I knew this 40 yrs ago. I do blame the ‘baby boomers’ a most self absorbed, everything is relative, and free everything generation to come down the pike. There are realities and pretending that they don’t exist doesn’t change a thing.

But…I guess it has to be said, again and again. The boomers having partied it up are now coming to the sobering conclusion that there are consequences to ignorance and societal neurosis and reluctantly facing for the very first time, reality. I have no tears for you. You have done it to yourselves. I have tears for the ones that will suffer what you have put into motion. For the innocents killed in American wars of hegemony, for the once great American economy, and for the ‘Millennial’s’ diminished opportunities.

Don’t tell me you didn’t know. I don’t want to hear it. I knew it over 40 yrs. ago. You didn’t want to open your eyes, You preferred the fantasy.

I’m reminded of the ‘good’ Germans who supported Hitler and the Nazi party while the war was good and Germany was untouched by the havoc of war that Hitler unleashed on neighboring countries.
After the war they were scrambling for food and water amidst ruin and devastated Berlin, claiming they weren’t Nazis and had no idea what had happening.

Am I pissed off? Damn right! The problems we are facing now just didn’t happen out of the blue, they were caused. The last time I checked it is still a ’cause and effect’ Universe,

EL Coyote
EL Coyote
April 4, 2016 11:36 pm

Homer, go jack off before you kill somebody.

Blaming people because they are over 50 is no solution and it doesn’t absolve you either.
As best as I can recall, they only invented the internet back in 1994 when Gore became VP.
Up to that moment, we were dependent on the MSM to keep us informed. Big mistake.
The expectation that America would always be great was ingrained in our hearts and we fully expected that our kids would be better off than ourselves.
Ross Perot warning of American jobs going east sounded like fantastic fiction.
The stock market was an unstoppable train and we heard crazy predictions back in ’87 that it would reach 10,000.
By 2000 we learned that it had been pumped up with air. Our 401Ks and company pensions were tied up in the market. The crooked E bought up solid companies and froze their pensions until they sucked them dry. Kenny boy was hung out to dry.
There were lots of questions. Good thing 9/11 came along. War is always good for changing the public mood. Patriotism is the name of the game now, don’t ask impertinent and unpatriotic questions.

Think, man. Or just blame the boomers.

Mary
Mary
April 4, 2016 11:53 pm

I want to state my frustration with some comments here.
I was a “public service” worker for 33+ years. I am now retired at age 62, against my will. My body is shot to hell. I worked my ass off every day of my career. I worked like a damn dog. I was an RN working with the most God-awful dregs of society.
I used to work full time and walk at least 15 miles daily. Now, I have trouble getting around the block.
My disability is work induced.
Please, stop with the insults about public sector workers. Many of us work our butts off……literally.

EL Coyote
EL Coyote
April 4, 2016 11:58 pm

Homes, You add insult to injury by blaming me for the condition of the country. I lost my retirement savings in the Wall Street casino of the 90’s. Since 2001, I just go to Vegas, where at least I can enjoy myself as I say goodbye to my money.

When the casino operator becomes president, maybe he’ll set up some cool games in the White House.

Homer
Homer
April 4, 2016 11:58 pm

As far as Social Security goes, I still remember-remember, Hell, It’s burned into my mind- that lying, Orrin Hatch, Senator from Utah, standing in front of the tv cameras telling America about the ‘Social Security lock-box’. Hahahah, what lock-box? There never was a lock-box. It was all a Con. The money was spent as fast as it was collected. How often do you hear about a lock-box today? hahaha

Your ‘boomer’ pensions are the same, underwater or bankrupt, and the government is so desperate for money it is eyeing your pensions, IRAs and 401Ks. But don’t worry they will give you non-negotiable government bonds for your money. Just like Social Security. hahaha

The bad news is that the banks will probably do a ‘bail-in’ and take half of your deposits, but not to worry, they will give you worthless stock in the bank that stole your money. hahaha

Demographics is the ‘great black swan’. But not to worry, the government will bring in a lot of immigrants into the country who will get jobs and pay into Social Security so you will get your pension. All they will have to do is get jobs. What jobs? hahaha They will be competing with you, for what jobs are available and for gov handouts.

But not to worry, we will get the Chinese and other countries to buy out debt while we export our inflation. Wait the Chinese and other are selling our debt, that can’t be good. Our bonds were ‘trading sardines’ not ‘eating sardines’. In other word not meant to be sold, just bought. hahaha

As the story, goes, an investor bought a warehouse of canned sardines and he went to the warehouse and opened up a can and the sardines in it were spoiled. He rushed to his broker to complain about it and the broker said, “Not to worry.” these are trading sardines not eating sardines.

So ‘Boomers’ not to worry. Obama then Hillary or Bernie have your ass covered.

EL Coyote
EL Coyote
April 5, 2016 12:05 am

Welcome, Mary! We need your kind to back the few boomers here. It’s mostly miserble millenials who never had to sharpen a pencil in school. Their moms came by at lunch time to spoon feed them. Now they’re all pissed because boomers are retiring and nobody is paying their way anymore. Work scares them. “Work! Isn’t that what illegals are for?”

Ed
Ed
April 5, 2016 12:09 am

“Please, stop with the insults about public sector workers.”

“Public sector workers” Is a euphemism for do-nothings with federal government jobs. If that doesn’t describe you, then don’t be insulted by it.

Ed
Ed
April 5, 2016 12:13 am

“. I knew it over 40 yrs. ago”

If you knew it over 40 years ago, then you’re a Boomer. If you were too young 40 years ago to have known jack shit, then you’re a lying cocksucker. From your writing style you’re too young to be a Boomer, so that only leaves…..

Homer
Homer
April 5, 2016 12:15 am

EL Coyote–I don’t see any illuminated solutions coming from you and not much coming from anyone else. I have solutions which I may expound or not. The trouble is you don’t want to hear them because you haven’t suffered enough. All my solutions are painful. This would have all been fixed years ago, but the CONgress wants to fix it without any pain, Not going to happen, which is why it isn’t
going to be fixed and why the pain you will experience will be so much greater when the ‘fat lady sings’.

I was talking to an acquaintance not long ago. We were talking about Social Security which he recently started collecting. I said to him, “Why are you collecting Social Security? Don’t you know that that is stealing. You are stealing from your working neighbor and your children and grand children?”

He said, “I paid into it and I want what’s mine.” Perfect ‘Boomer’ mentality.

Homer
Homer
April 5, 2016 12:24 am

Ed–I am older than the ‘Boomers’. Let me put it this way–Moses and I had the same kindergarten teacher. I have a Spiritual quest in life, I have work to do and I never got into the drug thing, drugs would only have messed it up and I saw that clearly in the ’60s’.

Homer
Homer
April 5, 2016 12:39 am

Mary, my daughter is an RN and it is a hard and difficult job and under appreciated. Take comfort in the people you have helped in this life. It is an honorable and good service. It is said, “No one get to Heaven, except arm in arm with someone they’ve helped.”

Mary, I thank you for your service.

procrastinator
procrastinator
April 5, 2016 7:32 am

I am a TBP enthusiast and have enjoyed its colorful literature for the past few years since I got interested in politics.

However, the constant damnation of our country is premature in my opinion. I can see the problems that Admin describes when surveying life through my own eyes, but I think my baseball analogy is a prime example of how our country is still thriving. When the cultural problems that Admin describes truly manifest themselves through civil unrest and economic destruction, we will see sporting events shut down indefinitely.

THEN, I will know that the American dream is over.

jamesthewanderer
jamesthewanderer
April 5, 2016 9:16 am

Hey Homer!

“Your ‘boomer’ pensions are the same, underwater or bankrupt, and the government is so desperate for money it is eyeing your pensions, IRAs and 401Ks. But don’t worry they will give you non-negotiable government bonds for your money. Just like Social Security. hahaha”

It’s not just the public pensions that are in trouble. The private ones are nearly as bad off, after nearly a decade of ZIRP the returns that would have paid the retirees are just not there. That is, if the company itself is even still there! And that Harvard MBA bullshit where you buy a company and raid the pension fund assets because they are “over-funded” beyond the requirements of some bullshit actuarial formula so the said MBAs can steal pension assets to pay their advisory fees for the takeover – I need more bullets, one for every MBA that ever did M&As. And why are you laughing about SS? Are you a Harvard MBA?

There won’t be any hiding places.

Anonymous
Anonymous
April 5, 2016 9:38 am

This is how it works -Within weeks of being kicked out of the Navy Reserve after testing positive for cocaine use, Vice President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, was appointed to the board of directors of the largest non-governmental gas producer in war-torn Ukraine.

Only now has it been revealed that Robert Hunter Biden, the vice president’s second son, was discharged from the Navy Reserve in February of 2014 . Less than a year earlier, he had applied for and was accepted into a Navy program that allows civilians with no prior service to receive a limited duty officer’s commission.

Homer
Homer
April 5, 2016 9:44 am

jamesthewanderer–Amen.

Homer
Homer
April 5, 2016 9:58 am

jamesthewanderer–No Harvard MBA. The laughter is sarcasm. What’s happening is truly tragic like the great depression was tragic. I want people to take notice and they are waking up.

Humankind has such great potential, yet, insists upon wallowing in the pig pen of life.

Homer
Homer
April 5, 2016 10:01 am

procrastinator–The Tragedies of the Vanities.

Ed
Ed
April 5, 2016 10:45 am

“Ed–I am older than the ‘Boomers’.”

Ok, then Older Brother. I was wrong in my response to you. So you were born in ’44 or earlier. I was born in ’51. I could be drawing SS, but I don’t, and I don’t intend to apply for it. I was fucked up pretty bad in a car wreck last summer, putting me out of business for 10 months and I could get SSI disability, but I don’t and I won’t apply for it.

So, because of your age, you’re not a Boomer. Because of my age, I am a Boomer, but I don’t accept any of the “entitlements” that critics of my age class are complaining about. I have never worked for any corporation or any other employer who promised/provided any pension or investment plan, and I have never fallen for the scam of voting for one clown or the other who has been part of this bullshit that has been foisted off on Americans.

So, how am I tarred by that broad brush you’re swinging, and you aren’t? When I started working for employers, at the age of 12, I became subject to paying into the entitlement schemes for people who were born before the end of WW2, people your age and older. That means that Boomers like me were paying for the entitlements of people born before FDR’s reign, most of whom fairly worshipped his evil, lying ass.

The self absorbed, entitlement loving class was already alive, many of them drawing SS before I was born. I know that I paid into their entitlements for my entire working life (which ain’t over yet, BTW), but I just write it off as a dead loss. I don’t see it as something I “invested in” and deserve to draw once I get tired enough.

Get a narrower brush or, better still, stop whining about some demographic invented by writers. You ain’t paying a fucking thing for me, and you never have, and never will.

Homer
Homer
April 5, 2016 11:36 am

Ed–Now you’ve done it. You have just increased my respect for you, several notches. I agree about FDR. When I was growing up, I heard people liken FDR to God. He saved the nation and created jobs.

All America was out of work, actually only 20% unemployment, and his WPA put people to work. For that he was a hero, and elected into office 4 times. He did a lot of good things, I will admit, like the aid he provided to the victims of the ‘Dust Bowel’ and their grinding poverty. He gave the American people hope, in the same way Hitler gave the German people hope or Trump is giving us hope, now.

But FDR advanced the pernicious Progressive socialist agenda which is part and parcel of our problems today. He saw the government as an active force to create right in deference to the laws and the Constitution. He was a dictator, albeit, a benevolent one. His motives may have been laudable, but his method were in my opinion were ‘wrong headed’. He broke with the covenant, the Constitution, and opted for big government, state-ism.

We are living his legacy today.

Ed
Ed
April 5, 2016 11:46 am

OK, Homer. I take it that we agree on the subject of FDR and his “We Piddle Around” works project. Can we also agree that the entitlement mindset that Boomers are blamed for actually existed when we were born?

Not all the people eligible for SS and other welfare want any part of it, whether we were born before or after the starting year of the baby boom. It’s a mindset, and that mindset isn’t something that everybody adopts.

DC Sunsets
DC Sunsets
April 5, 2016 11:57 am

Blame him. Or blame the other guy. Whatever.

What happened to grasping the notion of “The Fourth Turning?”

This crap is just a cycle. We have a bunch of vicious criminals as ruling politicians because that is just the place we (as a culture, a society or a civilization) are in the grand tides of history.

I gotta stop worrying about this. I have my “preps.” My kids are grown and capable. Stupid people rarely starve and only the most complacent of them stand still when the stupid people go on a Full Chip-Out.

Me and mine will do okay.

I intend to roast marshmallows over the embers of the burned bones of those I hate.

Homer
Homer
April 5, 2016 12:06 pm

DC Sunsets–If you like cycles then market cycle analyst Bo Polny is your man. watch what he says on Greg Hunter’s USAWATCHDOG,Com. The future ain’t what it use to be.

Crash of Biblical Proportions Coming in 2016-Bo Polny

Dutchman
Dutchman
April 5, 2016 12:19 pm

@Ed: ” I could be drawing SS, but I don’t, and I don’t intend to apply for it.”

That’s stupid. You paid for it – actually they forcefully took it from you and your employer.

Homer
Homer
April 5, 2016 12:41 pm

Dutchman–Ed if you are stupid then I’m stupid, too. Dutchman exemplifies what I have been saying all along. One has to look beyond the nose on ones face. Because one relies upon government and doesn’t prepare because of one’s false belief that gov is going to take care of me is going to be in desperate straits when gov fails to deliver.

Ed
Ed
April 5, 2016 12:48 pm

“That’s stupid. You paid for it”

No, I paid for people who were drawing it. I didn’t have much of a choice, but I can at least refuse to be a part of it when I finally stop working.

As for being stupid, I’m so fuckin much smarter than you that one of my thoughts would bust your head wide open. ahaha. Sometimes I crack my ownself up.

Ed
Ed
April 5, 2016 12:51 pm

Homer, yep. The best I can do is crack jokes about it to keep from crying. 😉

DC Sunsets
DC Sunsets
April 5, 2016 3:17 pm

Homer, I’ve been reading “the sky is going to fall” stuff for 21 years…23 if you count Doug Casey’s “Crisis Investing for the Rest of the ’90’s,” published in 1993.

No one knows.

Maybe 2016 is “it.” Maybe 2017. Maybe 2020. I have no clue, and neither does anyone else. I have a small short position (under water) and if I see the right signals I might add a little, but my days of thinking I was smart enough to beat everyone else on this are long past.

That said, I think Polny is likely to be wrong on the dollar.

Gold is clearly in an uptrend now, but I think it’s more likely to be a bear market rally before a larger setback. I figure gold might rise 30% (more, less, ??) but I don’t see it rising above $1900. I’m guessing, but that’s how I see it.

The dollar is not going to printed into oblivion.

I’ve stated this endlessly. Most dollar-based wealth is in the form of IOU-dollars, also known as bonds. IOU-dollars are NOT DOLLARS!

There is not enough cotton/wood pulp currency paper in existence to print up enough greenback cash to replace all those IOU’s, even if the Fed/Treasury wanted to. I’ve done the math, it is simply astonishing to calculate how many $100 bills, weighing many hundreds of tons, would be required.

Job One is we have to see the dollar value represented by all those IOU-dollars (bonds) collapse. That’s what you get when you have a credit-bubble inflation like the last 30 years. You get a credit collapse, which is the most catastrophic form of monetary deflation possible.

People will be SHORT of money.

This should in all likelihood collapse the prices for nearly everything. There are likely to be exceptions but I don’t think gold will be one of them.

We have inflation until we don’t.
Then we should have a credit collapse deflation. Gold may decline toward $600-800. Just a guess.

After the deflationary wave has run its course, I have no doubt whatever political authority exists will attempt to reflate the economy with greenback cash, and they’ll literally print vast amounts of banknotes. The first sign will be an increase to the largest denomination printed.

DC Sunsets
DC Sunsets
April 5, 2016 3:19 pm

Ed, take the money. Crash the system sooner by a nanosecond.

EL Coyote
EL Coyote
April 5, 2016 8:31 pm

Oppa, Ed, sometimes I read a certain voice into a commenter’s writing. Your voice sounds friendly and I have responded that way often.

I do apologize if I have not been appropriately deferential to the older bros here. Also, I always picture the women who write here as some 40 ish hotties, no offense intended.

Homer, fire away. I doubt you can sound more radical than Herr Trump. Build a wall, stop the cash sent to family in Mexico, blackmail the Mexican govt, raise tariffs (the tariff wall) increase govt abductions, presidential assasination of Americans and enhanced torture of Americans. Ha! They don’t publicize that shit! And James also goes on about confiscation of your savings and pension funds. How much darker can you paint the picture, Homes?

EL Coyote
EL Coyote
April 5, 2016 8:42 pm

Busting into homes, locking up folks for hours without cause, killing people in their homes for no reason, this is all desensitization for what’s coming. By the time they are breaking windows, nobody will be shocked and they won’t care, it’ll be ‘the way it is’.

Those are the easier solutions, and they are now in practice as test.

EL Coyote, 100, I win
EL Coyote, 100, I win
April 5, 2016 9:41 pm

All that shit has been suspended while the glorious leaders get their ‘validation’ via the electorate (actually an electronic counting program). Running a great country into the ground is too important to leave to people.

Homer
Homer
April 5, 2016 10:29 pm

DC Sunsets–21 yrs. you say. It’s been much longer for me, early ’60s’. Remember Howard Ruff, World Market Perspective, James Dines. etc. That was probably before your time. It’s been a long time coming and I will probably die before TEOTWAWKI.

I was cleaning out an old hard drive on my computer and came across a post on Goldseek.com written by Bob Moriarty back in 2003. It was an eye opener. Memories are short lived and the predictions that come to pass are remembered and the ones that don’t are quickly forgotten. Making predictions is easy, why I’ve done it a thousand times, myself. It’s getting it right that’s the hard part.

DC–“Just the facts, ma’am,”–Joe Friday on Dragnet. There hasn’t been any dollars since June 24,1968 when silver certificates were cashed in for silver by the government. I remember watching news accounts of people lined up at the San Francisco Federal Reserve bank to cash in their dollars for 1 oz of silver. Yes, DC, IOU dollars (credit) are not dollars.

Today, it is all credit which becomes a money substitute when loaned into existence. The national debt increased by more than 8 trillion dollars since Obama took office. There is movement, today, to ban cash. No more paper currency. It will all be bank credits on a computer. Credit is a key stroke on a computer, printed out of thin air. That 8 trillion dollars has been ‘monetized’ because the government has already spent it in to the market place. But prices haven’t risen except for thing you need, rather than what you want and that’s at a 10% clip according to ShadowStats.com. There’s demand for the things you need like food and demand means that you have credit, Money, to bid it away from another. Today, there is Inflation (of the money supply) which leads to price inflation and at the same time there is price deflation, but in different parts of the economy.

For the average person, not a debt slave, a deflation is better as their currency buys more. More bang for your buck, cash is king. Deflation is bad for debtors as it make their debt more difficult to pay down. Who’s the biggest debtor? Think, ‘what’s on the banks of the Potomac’. Inflation is a boon to debtors as their debt is paid off with cheaper currency.

DC says, “Job One is we have to see the dollar value represented by all those IOU-dollars (bonds) collapse.”

First I didn’t think IOU dollars were bonds. I Thought that bond were denominated in currency at a given rate of interest over a given time frame. Secondly, be careful what you wish for. “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” –A Tale of Two Cities. The only way for the ‘dollar value’ of all that currency to collapse is thru Hyper Inflation. See the Weimar Republic in Germany and Zimbabwe, Venezuela and Argentina, today. Not pleasant. I have always thought for the last 30 yrs. that it was going to be hyper inflation not deflation, but hyper inflation destroys civil structure and makes trade impossible. In hyper inflation, goods and services go no bid. There is a loss of confidence in the currency. Hyper inflation is a psychological phenomena and has nothing to do with debt, credit, etc.

DC says, ” That’s what you get when you have a credit-bubble inflation like the last 30 years. You get a credit collapse, which is the most catastrophic form of monetary deflation possible.”

DC, I put to you that there can never be a credit collapse in a pure fiat money system. That’s what Bernanke’s helicopter money is all about. What if you get $10,000 in the mail complements of your central gov and the FRB? All that credit would flow into the market place. Some would pay down their debts. The only way that credit collapse can occur is if everyone payed down their debt or the FED curtailed their lending activity like they did in 1928. (People would never be short of money.) ? Hyper inflation–money, money every where, but never enough. Does that qualify as a shortage?

Dc, you don”t understand gold, it’s value to society, and it’s relationship to currency. It really doesn’t matter if gold is $1 or $10,000 an ounce. Sure gold can go down to $600 to $800 an ounce, it doesn’t matter. What matter and matters greatly is what an ounce of gold can buy you in goods and services. You think of it backwards. It’s not how much an ounce of gold cost in dollars terms ( the value of gold in terms of dollars), but how many dollars you can you buy with an ounce of gold ( the value of dollars in terms of gold). Gold is the standard like all goods and the dollar is elastic. Only gold is a better standard.

It’s important that you have this ingrained in your thinking. There are those who would have you think that gold is a ‘barbarous relic’ or a ‘pet rock’. Gold serves mankind, paper currency serves those who create it out of ‘thin air’, the government and the FED.

DC close but no cigar.

Homer
Homer
April 5, 2016 10:38 pm

I crammed a lot of thoughts in my last comment and didn’t go in to any great details. I kinda guessed that you would read between the lines and was knowledgeable about these things.

ILuvCO2
ILuvCO2
April 5, 2016 11:08 pm

I intend to roast marshmallows over the embers of the burned bones of those I hate.

Dam good line…

ILuvCO2
ILuvCO2
April 5, 2016 11:10 pm

Running a great country into the ground is too important to leave to people.

Fuck, the people on this site are brilliant.

Llpoh
Llpoh
April 5, 2016 11:21 pm

Ed – not taking the money is truly stupid. Admirable, but stupid.

Here is why: there is no known way that the govt will make better use of the money than you will. Take the money and put it to good use. You can, the govt will not.

Here are some ideas:

Fund a non-kill animal shelter
Fund TBP forever more
Give small amounts regularly to hard-working, deserving people
Fund several trade school scholarships
Hire professional picketers and rabble rousers to haunt Hillary everywhere she goes
Place ads for TBP

Etc etc etc.

No matter what, the money is better in your hands than the governments. No matter how you spend it, it will be better than whatever they do with it. They will waste it on war, welfare or union drones.

Seriously, take the money and spend it on something good.

I highly recommend funding no-kill shelters. It is the best charity I know – saving an innocent animal from being put down, and finding it a loving home, is very rewarding.

Take the money and do good with it.